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Demography of the Roman Empire
The Roman Empire's population has been estimated at between 59 and 76 million in the 1st and 2nd centuries, peaking probably just before the Antonine Plague. Historian Kyle Harper provides an estimate of a population of 75 million and an average population density of about 20 people per square kilometre at its peak, with unusually high urbanization. During the 1st and 2nd centuries CE, the population of the city of Rome is conventionally estimated at one million inhabitants. Historian Ian Morris estimates that no other city in Western Eurasia would have as many again until the 19th century.
Papyrus evidence from Roman Egypt suggests like other more recent and thus better documented pre-modern societies, the Roman Empire experienced high infant mortality, a low marriage age, and high fertility within marriage. Perhaps half of the Roman subjects died by the age of 10. Of those still alive at age 10, half would die by the age of 50.
Due to migration, the ethnic composition of the city of Rome, its vicinity, and Italy as a whole went through substantial change during the early and later stages of the empire, with the migration divisible mainly in two separate periods: first during the Principate from Eastern Mediterranean areas, and later beginning from the Dominate by Northern and Western European peoples, continuing throughout the medieval ages and the early modern period. The resultant changes are reflected in the differences between Northern and Southern Italy to this day. The genetic distance between Northern and Southern Italians, although large for a single European nationality, is similar to that between the Northern and the Southern Germans.
For the lands around the Mediterranean Sea and their hinterlands, the period from the second millennium BCE to the early first millennium CE was one of substantial population growth. What would become the territory of the Roman Empire saw an average annual population growth of about 0.1 percent from the 12th century BCE to the 3rd century CE, resulting in a quadrupling of the region's total population. Growth was slower around the eastern Mediterranean, which was already more developed at the beginning of the period, on the order of about 0.07 percent per year. This was stronger growth than that seen in the succeeding period; from about 200 CE to 1800 CE, the European half of the empire only saw about 0.06 to 0.07 percent annual growth (Europe as a whole saw 0.1 percent annual growth rates), and the north African and west Asian parts of the empire saw almost no growth at all.
By comparison, what is now the territory of China experienced 0.1 percent annual growth from 1 CE to 1800 CE. After a population decline following the disintegration of the western half of the Roman state in the 5th and 6th centuries, Europe probably re-attained Roman-era population totals in the 12th and 13th centuries. Following another decline associated with the Black Death, it consistently exceeded them after the mid-15th century.
There are no reliable surviving records for the general demography of the Roman Empire. There are also no detailed local records, such as underlie the demographic study of early modern Europe. Large numbers of impressionistic, moralizing, and anecdotal observations on demography survive from literary sources; they are of little use in the study of Roman demography, which tends to rely instead on conjecture and comparison rather than records and observations.
Life expectancy at birth in the Roman Empire is estimated at about 22–33 years. For the two-thirds to three-quarters of the population surviving the first year of life, life expectancy at age 1 is estimated at around 34–41 remaining years (i.e. expected to live to age 35–42), while for the 55–65% surviving to age 5, life expectancy was around 40–45. The ~50% that reached age 10 could expect to reach ~45–50, and the 46–49% surviving to their mid-teens could on average expect to reach around 48–54, although many lived much longer or shorter lives for varied reasons, including wars for males and childbirth for females. Even if these figures rely more on conjecture than ancient evidence, which is sparse and of dubious quality, the known social and economic conditions of the Roman Empire indicate life expectancy toward the usual lower bound of pre-modern populations. Roman demography bears comparison to available data for India and rural China in the early 20th century, where life expectancies at birth were also in the 20s.
About 300 census returns filed in Egypt in the first three centuries CE survive. The classical scholar R. S. Bagnall and the political scientist B. W. Frier used them to build female and male age distributions, which show life expectancies at birth of between 22 and 25 years, results broadly consistent with model life tables. Other sources used for population reconstructions include cemetery skeletons, Roman tombstones in North Africa, and an annuities table known as "Ulpian's life table". The basis and interpretation of these sources is disputed: the skeletons cannot be firmly dated, the tombstones show non-representative sample populations, and the sources of "Ulpian's life table" are unknown. Nonetheless, because they converge with low Roman elite survival rates shown in the literary sources, and because their evidence is consistent with data from populations with comparably high mortality rates, such as in 18th-century France, and early 20th-century China, India, and Egypt, they reinforce the basic assumption of Roman demography: that life expectancies at birth were in the low 20s.
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Demography of the Roman Empire
The Roman Empire's population has been estimated at between 59 and 76 million in the 1st and 2nd centuries, peaking probably just before the Antonine Plague. Historian Kyle Harper provides an estimate of a population of 75 million and an average population density of about 20 people per square kilometre at its peak, with unusually high urbanization. During the 1st and 2nd centuries CE, the population of the city of Rome is conventionally estimated at one million inhabitants. Historian Ian Morris estimates that no other city in Western Eurasia would have as many again until the 19th century.
Papyrus evidence from Roman Egypt suggests like other more recent and thus better documented pre-modern societies, the Roman Empire experienced high infant mortality, a low marriage age, and high fertility within marriage. Perhaps half of the Roman subjects died by the age of 10. Of those still alive at age 10, half would die by the age of 50.
Due to migration, the ethnic composition of the city of Rome, its vicinity, and Italy as a whole went through substantial change during the early and later stages of the empire, with the migration divisible mainly in two separate periods: first during the Principate from Eastern Mediterranean areas, and later beginning from the Dominate by Northern and Western European peoples, continuing throughout the medieval ages and the early modern period. The resultant changes are reflected in the differences between Northern and Southern Italy to this day. The genetic distance between Northern and Southern Italians, although large for a single European nationality, is similar to that between the Northern and the Southern Germans.
For the lands around the Mediterranean Sea and their hinterlands, the period from the second millennium BCE to the early first millennium CE was one of substantial population growth. What would become the territory of the Roman Empire saw an average annual population growth of about 0.1 percent from the 12th century BCE to the 3rd century CE, resulting in a quadrupling of the region's total population. Growth was slower around the eastern Mediterranean, which was already more developed at the beginning of the period, on the order of about 0.07 percent per year. This was stronger growth than that seen in the succeeding period; from about 200 CE to 1800 CE, the European half of the empire only saw about 0.06 to 0.07 percent annual growth (Europe as a whole saw 0.1 percent annual growth rates), and the north African and west Asian parts of the empire saw almost no growth at all.
By comparison, what is now the territory of China experienced 0.1 percent annual growth from 1 CE to 1800 CE. After a population decline following the disintegration of the western half of the Roman state in the 5th and 6th centuries, Europe probably re-attained Roman-era population totals in the 12th and 13th centuries. Following another decline associated with the Black Death, it consistently exceeded them after the mid-15th century.
There are no reliable surviving records for the general demography of the Roman Empire. There are also no detailed local records, such as underlie the demographic study of early modern Europe. Large numbers of impressionistic, moralizing, and anecdotal observations on demography survive from literary sources; they are of little use in the study of Roman demography, which tends to rely instead on conjecture and comparison rather than records and observations.
Life expectancy at birth in the Roman Empire is estimated at about 22–33 years. For the two-thirds to three-quarters of the population surviving the first year of life, life expectancy at age 1 is estimated at around 34–41 remaining years (i.e. expected to live to age 35–42), while for the 55–65% surviving to age 5, life expectancy was around 40–45. The ~50% that reached age 10 could expect to reach ~45–50, and the 46–49% surviving to their mid-teens could on average expect to reach around 48–54, although many lived much longer or shorter lives for varied reasons, including wars for males and childbirth for females. Even if these figures rely more on conjecture than ancient evidence, which is sparse and of dubious quality, the known social and economic conditions of the Roman Empire indicate life expectancy toward the usual lower bound of pre-modern populations. Roman demography bears comparison to available data for India and rural China in the early 20th century, where life expectancies at birth were also in the 20s.
About 300 census returns filed in Egypt in the first three centuries CE survive. The classical scholar R. S. Bagnall and the political scientist B. W. Frier used them to build female and male age distributions, which show life expectancies at birth of between 22 and 25 years, results broadly consistent with model life tables. Other sources used for population reconstructions include cemetery skeletons, Roman tombstones in North Africa, and an annuities table known as "Ulpian's life table". The basis and interpretation of these sources is disputed: the skeletons cannot be firmly dated, the tombstones show non-representative sample populations, and the sources of "Ulpian's life table" are unknown. Nonetheless, because they converge with low Roman elite survival rates shown in the literary sources, and because their evidence is consistent with data from populations with comparably high mortality rates, such as in 18th-century France, and early 20th-century China, India, and Egypt, they reinforce the basic assumption of Roman demography: that life expectancies at birth were in the low 20s.