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Structural equation modeling

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Structural equation modeling

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a diverse set of methods used by scientists for both observational and experimental research. SEM is used mostly in the social and behavioral science fields, but it is also used in epidemiology, business, and other fields. By a standard definition, SEM is "a class of methodologies that seeks to represent hypotheses about the means, variances, and covariances of observed data in terms of a smaller number of 'structural' parameters defined by a hypothesized underlying conceptual or theoretical model".

SEM involves a model representing how various aspects of some phenomenon are thought to causally connect to one another. Structural equation models often contain postulated causal connections among some latent variables (variables thought to exist but which can't be directly observed). Additional causal connections link those latent variables to observed variables whose values appear in a data set. The causal connections are represented using equations, but the postulated structuring can also be presented using diagrams containing arrows as in Figures 1 and 2. The causal structures imply that specific patterns should appear among the values of the observed variables. This makes it possible to use the connections between the observed variables' values to estimate the magnitudes of the postulated effects, and to test whether or not the observed data are consistent with the requirements of the hypothesized causal structures.

The boundary between what is and is not a structural equation model is not always clear, but SE models often contain postulated causal connections among a set of latent variables (variables thought to exist but which can't be directly observed, like an attitude, intelligence, or mental illness) and causal connections linking the postulated latent variables to variables that can be observed and whose values are available in some data set. Variations among the styles of latent causal connections, variations among the observed variables measuring the latent variables, and variations in the statistical estimation strategies result in the SEM toolkit including confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), confirmatory composite analysis, path analysis, multi-group modeling, longitudinal modeling, partial least squares path modeling, latent growth modeling and hierarchical or multilevel modeling.

SEM researchers use computer programs to estimate the strength and sign of the coefficients corresponding to the modeled structural connections, for example the numbers connected to the arrows in Figure 1. Because a postulated model such as Figure 1 may not correspond to the worldly forces controlling the observed data measurements, the programs also provide model tests and diagnostic clues suggesting which indicators, or which model components, might introduce inconsistency between the model and observed data. Criticisms of SEM methods include disregard of available model tests, problems in the model's specification, a tendency to accept models without considering external validity, and potential philosophical biases.

A great advantage of SEM is that all of these measurements and tests occur simultaneously in one statistical estimation procedure, where all the model coefficients are calculated using all information from the observed variables. This means the estimates are more accurate than if a researcher were to calculate each part of the model separately.

Structural equation modeling (SEM) began differentiating itself from correlation and regression when Sewall Wright provided explicit causal interpretations for a set of regression-style equations based on a solid understanding of the physical and physiological mechanisms producing direct and indirect effects among his observed variables. The equations were estimated like ordinary regression equations but the substantive context for the measured variables permitted clear causal, not merely predictive, understandings. O. D. Duncan introduced SEM to the social sciences in his 1975 book, and SEM blossomed in the late 1970's and 1980's when increasing computing power permitted practical model estimation. In 1987 Hayduk provided the first book-length introduction to structural equation modeling with latent variables, and this was soon followed by Bollen's popular text (1989).

Different yet mathematically related modeling approaches developed in psychology, sociology, and economics. Early Cowles Commission work on simultaneous equations estimation centered on Koopman and Hood's (1953) algorithms from transport economics and optimal routing, with maximum likelihood estimation, and closed form algebraic calculations, as iterative solution search techniques were limited in the days before computers. The convergence of two of these developmental streams (factor analysis from psychology, and path analysis from sociology via Duncan) produced the current core of SEM. One of several programs Karl Jöreskog developed at Educational Testing Services, LISREL embedded latent variables (which psychologists knew as the latent factors from factor analysis) within path-analysis-style equations (which sociologists inherited from Wright and Duncan). The factor-structured portion of the model incorporated measurement errors which permitted measurement-error-adjustment, though not necessarily error-free estimation, of effects connecting different postulated latent variables.

Traces of the historical convergence of the factor analytic and path analytic traditions persist as the distinction between the measurement and structural portions of models; and as continuing disagreements over model testing, and whether measurement should precede or accompany structural estimates. Viewing factor analysis as a data-reduction technique deemphasizes testing, which contrasts with path analytic appreciation for testing postulated causal connections – where the test result might signal model misspecification. The friction between factor analytic and path analytic traditions continue to surface in the literature.

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