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2022–23 Australian region cyclone season
The 2022–23 Australian region cyclone season was the fourth consecutive season to have below-average activity in terms of named storms. The season officially started on 1 November 2022 and finished on 30 April 2023, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2022 and 30 June 2023 and would count towards the season total, as Tropical Cyclone 01U proved in 26 July. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service also monitored the basin during the season.
During October 2022, Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), New Zealand's MetService, and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) issued its tropical cyclone outlook for the 2022–23 season. The outlook called for an above-average number of tropical cyclones for the 2022–23 season, with eleven tropical cyclones, predicted to occur. For the Australian region, the BoM predicted that the season would feature, only a 73% chance of more tropical cyclones. For the Western region, it was predicted that activity would be above average, with a 69% chance of tropical cyclone activity. The northern region and northwestern subregion would also see fewer tropical cyclones, with only a 61% and 70% chance of more tropical cyclones than average.
The BoM issued two seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific Ocean, for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean. They predicted that the South-West Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 65% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones. The BoM also predicted that the South-East Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 43% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.
Climate models also suggest that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will return to neutral conditions in 2023. The BoM noted that sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Indian Ocean. Warmer-than-average waters are expected to persist to the north of Australia for the next three months, increasing the likelihood of tropical cyclones. The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region had a 74% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones. These outlooks accounted included the state of the ENSO. A lower average risk of tropical cyclones was predicted by NIWA for nations east of the International Date Line.
The season officially begun on 1 November, however a tropical low would form on 26 July, an exceptionally early start to the season. The system would be assigned the name 01U and would produce gale-force winds and persistent deep convection for a couple of days before wind shear began to increase. In-post analysis, 01U was upgraded to a Category 1 tropical cyclone (Australian scale). In November, tropical low 02U was designated by the BoM and encountered marginally favorable conditions. The low was upgraded to Tropical Cyclone 04S by JTWC after tropical-storm-force winds were found. Later in the month, a tropical low formed and was a long-lived system before dissipating on 26 November. There was also another tropical low that formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria but did not develop further. In December, tropical low 05U formed, and was given the name Darian after intensifying into a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone. On 19 December, it became the first Severe Tropical Cyclone of the season. Throughout the day, the storm unexpectedly entered very favorable conditions, and underwent rapid intensification. It reached Category 5 on the BoM's scale the next day, and peaked as a Category 4 on the SSHWS scale, later exiting into the South-west Indian Ocean Basin. Later that month, a tropical low formed, later intensifying into a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone and was named Ellie. Ellie then later crossed the Northern Territory coast, making landfall at a sparsely populated location southwest of Daly River at 13:30 UTC (11:00 pm ACST). Shortly after the landfall, the JTWC discontinued warnings on the system.
The next day, the BoM's released its last bulletin on Ellie, as the system weakened into a tropical low. However, Ellie remained traceable, as it moved southwest towards the Western Australia region throughout the rest of December. The BoM then gave the tropical low a moderate chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone on 1 January. The storm then moved southeast and further weakened as it moved inland once again. On 6 January, the BoM stated that Tropical Low 07U formed from a monsoon trough over northeastern Australia. The JTWC later upgraded it to a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone (Australian Scale), and dubbed it as Cyclone 07P. However, the BoM did not upgrade the system due to lacking a well-defined center. 07U later moved into the South Pacific basin and was named Hale. Later in January, a tropical low become 06F in the South Pacific basin, and Tropical Lows 10U and 12U remained weak. In February, activity increased across the basin, with the formations of Tropical Low 11U, Freddy, and Gabrielle. Freddy took advantage of the favorable conditions and intensified to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. Gabrielle also steadily intensified to a severe tropical cyclone as the cyclone headed southeast and moved into the South Pacific basin on 10 February. 11U exited the Australian Region basin and was named Dingani in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin. Freddy later rapidly intensified to a Category 4 on both the Australian and SSHWS scales. Another tropical low, 15U, formed on 11 February and lasted until 17 February. After 15U, a weak tropical low formed, followed by tropical lows 16U and 17U. Another weak tropical low, 18U, formed on 27 February. 17U was last noted on 27 February, and on 1 March, 18U moved into the South Pacific basin, where it became Kevin. After a lull for a few weeks, tropical low 20U formed and headed southwest before degenerating off the coast of Western Australia. Another tropical low formed and was named Herman, which rapidly intensified to a Category 5 on the AUS scale with a warm and well-defined eye. Afterward, wind shear decoupled Herman and the cyclone dissipated. Tropical low 22U formed in the northern Arafura sea and dissipated. A westerly wind burst led to the formation of Tropical low 23U. After struggling against strong wind shear, the system was named Ilsa. The cyclone rapidly intensified due to jet interaction and peaked as a Category 5 both on the AUS and SSHWS scales before making landfall northeast of Port Hedland. A weak tropical low formed on 14 April. Another weak tropical low formed on 30 April.[citation needed]
On 26 July, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that a tropical low had formed due to an increase in monsoonal storm activity during the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Deep convection became more pronounced and organized with an upper-level trough around the center. By 15:00 UTC on 28 July, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for the disturbance. The system was located in a favorable environment, with sea surface temperatures ranging from 28 to 30 degrees Celsius, and the JTWC issued their first warning on the storm six hours later as Tropical Cyclone 01S. During post-storm analysis from the BoM, the system was upgraded into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on 29 July, although it remained unnamed. 01U reached its peak intensity with maximum 10-sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), before gradually weakening. At 09:00 UTC on 31 July, the JTWC issued their final warning on the system. Later that day, 01U completely dissipated. The cyclone would not cause damages to the Cocos Islands despite near-gales occurring when it affected it.
On 1 November, the BoM began tracking a tropical low to the northwestern of the region. Satellite imagery revealed that the system was displaced from its center of circulation. Environmental conditions were assessed by the BoM as being unfavorable for significant intensification of the system. The system was assigned the official identifier code 02U. Throughout the twelve hours, the system improved. At 03:00 UTC on 3 November, the JTWC issued a TCFA, after noting its obscure low-level circulation center (LLCC). Later that day, the JTWC subsequently initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 04S. The system had a broad and fully exposed LLCC, although there was some thunderstorm activity associated with the system. The BoM would stop tracking the system on 5 November. The system would briefly exit the basin and enter the South-West Indian Ocean basin the same day.
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2022–23 Australian region cyclone season AI simulator
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2022–23 Australian region cyclone season
The 2022–23 Australian region cyclone season was the fourth consecutive season to have below-average activity in terms of named storms. The season officially started on 1 November 2022 and finished on 30 April 2023, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2022 and 30 June 2023 and would count towards the season total, as Tropical Cyclone 01U proved in 26 July. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service also monitored the basin during the season.
During October 2022, Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), New Zealand's MetService, and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) issued its tropical cyclone outlook for the 2022–23 season. The outlook called for an above-average number of tropical cyclones for the 2022–23 season, with eleven tropical cyclones, predicted to occur. For the Australian region, the BoM predicted that the season would feature, only a 73% chance of more tropical cyclones. For the Western region, it was predicted that activity would be above average, with a 69% chance of tropical cyclone activity. The northern region and northwestern subregion would also see fewer tropical cyclones, with only a 61% and 70% chance of more tropical cyclones than average.
The BoM issued two seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific Ocean, for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean. They predicted that the South-West Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 65% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones. The BoM also predicted that the South-East Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 43% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.
Climate models also suggest that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will return to neutral conditions in 2023. The BoM noted that sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Indian Ocean. Warmer-than-average waters are expected to persist to the north of Australia for the next three months, increasing the likelihood of tropical cyclones. The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region had a 74% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones. These outlooks accounted included the state of the ENSO. A lower average risk of tropical cyclones was predicted by NIWA for nations east of the International Date Line.
The season officially begun on 1 November, however a tropical low would form on 26 July, an exceptionally early start to the season. The system would be assigned the name 01U and would produce gale-force winds and persistent deep convection for a couple of days before wind shear began to increase. In-post analysis, 01U was upgraded to a Category 1 tropical cyclone (Australian scale). In November, tropical low 02U was designated by the BoM and encountered marginally favorable conditions. The low was upgraded to Tropical Cyclone 04S by JTWC after tropical-storm-force winds were found. Later in the month, a tropical low formed and was a long-lived system before dissipating on 26 November. There was also another tropical low that formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria but did not develop further. In December, tropical low 05U formed, and was given the name Darian after intensifying into a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone. On 19 December, it became the first Severe Tropical Cyclone of the season. Throughout the day, the storm unexpectedly entered very favorable conditions, and underwent rapid intensification. It reached Category 5 on the BoM's scale the next day, and peaked as a Category 4 on the SSHWS scale, later exiting into the South-west Indian Ocean Basin. Later that month, a tropical low formed, later intensifying into a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone and was named Ellie. Ellie then later crossed the Northern Territory coast, making landfall at a sparsely populated location southwest of Daly River at 13:30 UTC (11:00 pm ACST). Shortly after the landfall, the JTWC discontinued warnings on the system.
The next day, the BoM's released its last bulletin on Ellie, as the system weakened into a tropical low. However, Ellie remained traceable, as it moved southwest towards the Western Australia region throughout the rest of December. The BoM then gave the tropical low a moderate chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone on 1 January. The storm then moved southeast and further weakened as it moved inland once again. On 6 January, the BoM stated that Tropical Low 07U formed from a monsoon trough over northeastern Australia. The JTWC later upgraded it to a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone (Australian Scale), and dubbed it as Cyclone 07P. However, the BoM did not upgrade the system due to lacking a well-defined center. 07U later moved into the South Pacific basin and was named Hale. Later in January, a tropical low become 06F in the South Pacific basin, and Tropical Lows 10U and 12U remained weak. In February, activity increased across the basin, with the formations of Tropical Low 11U, Freddy, and Gabrielle. Freddy took advantage of the favorable conditions and intensified to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. Gabrielle also steadily intensified to a severe tropical cyclone as the cyclone headed southeast and moved into the South Pacific basin on 10 February. 11U exited the Australian Region basin and was named Dingani in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin. Freddy later rapidly intensified to a Category 4 on both the Australian and SSHWS scales. Another tropical low, 15U, formed on 11 February and lasted until 17 February. After 15U, a weak tropical low formed, followed by tropical lows 16U and 17U. Another weak tropical low, 18U, formed on 27 February. 17U was last noted on 27 February, and on 1 March, 18U moved into the South Pacific basin, where it became Kevin. After a lull for a few weeks, tropical low 20U formed and headed southwest before degenerating off the coast of Western Australia. Another tropical low formed and was named Herman, which rapidly intensified to a Category 5 on the AUS scale with a warm and well-defined eye. Afterward, wind shear decoupled Herman and the cyclone dissipated. Tropical low 22U formed in the northern Arafura sea and dissipated. A westerly wind burst led to the formation of Tropical low 23U. After struggling against strong wind shear, the system was named Ilsa. The cyclone rapidly intensified due to jet interaction and peaked as a Category 5 both on the AUS and SSHWS scales before making landfall northeast of Port Hedland. A weak tropical low formed on 14 April. Another weak tropical low formed on 30 April.[citation needed]
On 26 July, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that a tropical low had formed due to an increase in monsoonal storm activity during the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Deep convection became more pronounced and organized with an upper-level trough around the center. By 15:00 UTC on 28 July, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for the disturbance. The system was located in a favorable environment, with sea surface temperatures ranging from 28 to 30 degrees Celsius, and the JTWC issued their first warning on the storm six hours later as Tropical Cyclone 01S. During post-storm analysis from the BoM, the system was upgraded into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on 29 July, although it remained unnamed. 01U reached its peak intensity with maximum 10-sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), before gradually weakening. At 09:00 UTC on 31 July, the JTWC issued their final warning on the system. Later that day, 01U completely dissipated. The cyclone would not cause damages to the Cocos Islands despite near-gales occurring when it affected it.
On 1 November, the BoM began tracking a tropical low to the northwestern of the region. Satellite imagery revealed that the system was displaced from its center of circulation. Environmental conditions were assessed by the BoM as being unfavorable for significant intensification of the system. The system was assigned the official identifier code 02U. Throughout the twelve hours, the system improved. At 03:00 UTC on 3 November, the JTWC issued a TCFA, after noting its obscure low-level circulation center (LLCC). Later that day, the JTWC subsequently initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 04S. The system had a broad and fully exposed LLCC, although there was some thunderstorm activity associated with the system. The BoM would stop tracking the system on 5 November. The system would briefly exit the basin and enter the South-West Indian Ocean basin the same day.