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2023–24 Australian region cyclone season
The 2023–24 Australian region cyclone season was the fifth and final consecutive season to have below-average activity in terms of named storms. Despite this, it was the second in a row to have at least five severe tropical cyclones, including Australia's wettest tropical cyclone on record. The season officially started on 1 November 2023 and ended on 30 April 2024, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2024 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service will also monitor the basin during the season.
Ahead of the season officially starting on 1 November, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) both issued a tropical cyclone outlook that discussed the upcoming season. These outlooks took into account a variety of factors such as a developing El Niño event and what had happened in previous seasons such as 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, 2009–10 and 2015–16. Within their seasonal outlook for the Australian region, the BoM suggested that there was an 80% chance, that the whole region between 90°E – 160°E, would be below average, having less than the long term average of 11 tropical cyclones. They also suggested that each of their self-defined Western, Northern, North-western and Eastern regions would see a below-average amount of tropical cyclone activity.
The BoM also issued a seasonal forecast that discussed tropical cyclone activity over the South Pacific Ocean for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean. Within this forecast, they predicted that their western region between 142.5°E and 165°E would have a below average amount of activity, while their eastern region between 165°E and 120°W had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones. Along with other Pacific Meteorological Services, the BoM contributed to NIWA's Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook, which predicted that nine and fourteen tropical cyclones would occur between 135°E and 120°W. At least four to eight of these systems were expected to intensify further and become either a Category 3, 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.
The season officially started on 1 November, however the first system, Cyclone Jasper, would not be active until 4 December, when it crossed into the basin as a tropical low from the South Pacific. The low became a named storm on 5 December, receiving the name Jasper, and intensified into the season's first severe tropical cyclone the next day. Jasper made landfall in Far North Queensland as a Category 2 tropical cyclone on 13 December.
After a significant lull in activity, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek and Tropical Low 03U formed on 10 and 11 January respectively, with the latter dissipating on 23 January. The next day, Cyclone Kirrily formed. Tropical Low 06U formed on 30 January, dancing out of basin the next day and waltzing back in on 5 February. Tropical Cyclone Lincoln formed on 16 February and made landfall on the Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Severe Tropical Cyclone Neville formed north of the Cocos Islands on 1 March and left the basin 20 days later. Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan formed on 13 March from a tropical low over the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Short-lived Tropical Low 10U formed and weakened within the same day of 14 March. Severe Tropical Cyclone Olga formed within a monsoon trough south of Sumba on 4 April. Tropical Cyclone Paul formed 5 days later over the Louisiade Archipelago. Tropical Low 12U formed on 12 April and remained traceable.
The season ended with Tropical Low 16U, formed on 4 May and weakened the next day.
On 2 December, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that Tropical Disturbance 03F, which was re-designated as Tropical Low 02U, had formed in the South Pacific Ocean in Fiji's area of responsibility. Two days later, on 00:00 UTC of 4 December, the system would enter the Australian area of responsibility. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) later that day, projecting a high likelihood of a significant tropical cyclone developing. Later the next day, the JTWC subsequently initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 03P. The BoM subsequently followed suit and upgraded it to a Category 1 tropical cyclone, naming it Jasper. Jasper started to track southward under the steering influence of a near equatorial ridge to the east. During the next day, the cyclone's centre continued to organise, with deep convective bands starting to wrap around the centre, prompting the JTWC to upgrade the system to a Category 1 hurricane. Jasper rapidly intensified into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone, due to being in an environment with warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. The next day, it further intensified, becoming a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone. Operationally, the BoM classified Jasper as a high-end Category 4 severe tropical cyclone with winds of 195 km/h (120 mph), but during post-cyclone reanalysis concluded a peak wind speed of 215 km/h (130 mph) based on Synthetic-aperture radar measurements. Shortly thereafter, Jasper began weakening, with its eye becoming cloud-filled and the deep convection eroding due to dry air entrainment. Jasper would reintensify, and at 12:00 UTC on 13 December, made landfall as a Category 2 tropical cyclone in Wujal Wujal, Queensland. After making landfall, the JTWC discontinue warnings on the system later that day. By 14:00 UTC that day, the BoM reported that Jasper had weakened to a tropical low. However, Jasper remained traceable, and the BoM would give the tropical low a moderate chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone on 15 December. However, they would soon downgrade its chances of re-developing into a very low as the storm turned southeast further inland, causing the tropical low to rapidly weaken, and on 18 December, Jasper was last noted over the Cape York Peninsula.
Jasper produced torrential rainfall, peaking at 2,252 mm (88.7 in) at Bairds near the Daintree River, making the wettest tropical cyclone in Australian history, beating the previous record of Cyclone Peter in 1979. The Insurance Council of Australia estimated that Jasper caused AU$1 billion (US$670 million) in damages.
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2023–24 Australian region cyclone season AI simulator
(@2023–24 Australian region cyclone season_simulator)
2023–24 Australian region cyclone season
The 2023–24 Australian region cyclone season was the fifth and final consecutive season to have below-average activity in terms of named storms. Despite this, it was the second in a row to have at least five severe tropical cyclones, including Australia's wettest tropical cyclone on record. The season officially started on 1 November 2023 and ended on 30 April 2024, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2024 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service will also monitor the basin during the season.
Ahead of the season officially starting on 1 November, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) both issued a tropical cyclone outlook that discussed the upcoming season. These outlooks took into account a variety of factors such as a developing El Niño event and what had happened in previous seasons such as 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, 2009–10 and 2015–16. Within their seasonal outlook for the Australian region, the BoM suggested that there was an 80% chance, that the whole region between 90°E – 160°E, would be below average, having less than the long term average of 11 tropical cyclones. They also suggested that each of their self-defined Western, Northern, North-western and Eastern regions would see a below-average amount of tropical cyclone activity.
The BoM also issued a seasonal forecast that discussed tropical cyclone activity over the South Pacific Ocean for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean. Within this forecast, they predicted that their western region between 142.5°E and 165°E would have a below average amount of activity, while their eastern region between 165°E and 120°W had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones. Along with other Pacific Meteorological Services, the BoM contributed to NIWA's Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook, which predicted that nine and fourteen tropical cyclones would occur between 135°E and 120°W. At least four to eight of these systems were expected to intensify further and become either a Category 3, 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.
The season officially started on 1 November, however the first system, Cyclone Jasper, would not be active until 4 December, when it crossed into the basin as a tropical low from the South Pacific. The low became a named storm on 5 December, receiving the name Jasper, and intensified into the season's first severe tropical cyclone the next day. Jasper made landfall in Far North Queensland as a Category 2 tropical cyclone on 13 December.
After a significant lull in activity, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek and Tropical Low 03U formed on 10 and 11 January respectively, with the latter dissipating on 23 January. The next day, Cyclone Kirrily formed. Tropical Low 06U formed on 30 January, dancing out of basin the next day and waltzing back in on 5 February. Tropical Cyclone Lincoln formed on 16 February and made landfall on the Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Severe Tropical Cyclone Neville formed north of the Cocos Islands on 1 March and left the basin 20 days later. Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan formed on 13 March from a tropical low over the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Short-lived Tropical Low 10U formed and weakened within the same day of 14 March. Severe Tropical Cyclone Olga formed within a monsoon trough south of Sumba on 4 April. Tropical Cyclone Paul formed 5 days later over the Louisiade Archipelago. Tropical Low 12U formed on 12 April and remained traceable.
The season ended with Tropical Low 16U, formed on 4 May and weakened the next day.
On 2 December, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that Tropical Disturbance 03F, which was re-designated as Tropical Low 02U, had formed in the South Pacific Ocean in Fiji's area of responsibility. Two days later, on 00:00 UTC of 4 December, the system would enter the Australian area of responsibility. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) later that day, projecting a high likelihood of a significant tropical cyclone developing. Later the next day, the JTWC subsequently initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 03P. The BoM subsequently followed suit and upgraded it to a Category 1 tropical cyclone, naming it Jasper. Jasper started to track southward under the steering influence of a near equatorial ridge to the east. During the next day, the cyclone's centre continued to organise, with deep convective bands starting to wrap around the centre, prompting the JTWC to upgrade the system to a Category 1 hurricane. Jasper rapidly intensified into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone, due to being in an environment with warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. The next day, it further intensified, becoming a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone. Operationally, the BoM classified Jasper as a high-end Category 4 severe tropical cyclone with winds of 195 km/h (120 mph), but during post-cyclone reanalysis concluded a peak wind speed of 215 km/h (130 mph) based on Synthetic-aperture radar measurements. Shortly thereafter, Jasper began weakening, with its eye becoming cloud-filled and the deep convection eroding due to dry air entrainment. Jasper would reintensify, and at 12:00 UTC on 13 December, made landfall as a Category 2 tropical cyclone in Wujal Wujal, Queensland. After making landfall, the JTWC discontinue warnings on the system later that day. By 14:00 UTC that day, the BoM reported that Jasper had weakened to a tropical low. However, Jasper remained traceable, and the BoM would give the tropical low a moderate chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone on 15 December. However, they would soon downgrade its chances of re-developing into a very low as the storm turned southeast further inland, causing the tropical low to rapidly weaken, and on 18 December, Jasper was last noted over the Cape York Peninsula.
Jasper produced torrential rainfall, peaking at 2,252 mm (88.7 in) at Bairds near the Daintree River, making the wettest tropical cyclone in Australian history, beating the previous record of Cyclone Peter in 1979. The Insurance Council of Australia estimated that Jasper caused AU$1 billion (US$670 million) in damages.