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Relative risk

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Relative risk

The relative risk (RR) or risk ratio is the ratio of the probability of an outcome in an exposed group to the probability of an outcome in an unexposed group. Together with risk difference and odds ratio, relative risk measures the association between the exposure and the outcome.

Relative risk is mostly used in the statistical analysis of the data of ecological, cohort, medical and intervention studies, to estimate the strength of the association between exposures (treatments or risk factors) and outcomes. Mathematically, it is the incidence rate of the outcome in the exposed group, , divided by the rate of the unexposed group, . As such, it is used to compare the risk of an adverse outcome when receiving a medical treatment versus no treatment (or placebo), or for environmental risk factors.

For example, in a study examining the effect of the drug apixaban on the occurrence of thromboembolism, 8.8% of placebo-treated patients experienced the disease, but only 1.7% of patients treated with the drug did, so the relative risk is 0.19 (1.7/8.8): patients receiving apixaban had 19% the disease risk of patients receiving the placebo. In this case, apixaban is a protective factor rather than a risk factor, because it reduces the risk of disease.

Assuming the causal effect between the exposure and the outcome, values of relative risk can be interpreted as follows:

As always, correlation does not mean causation; the causation could be reversed, or they could both be caused by a common confounding variable. The relative risk of having cancer when in the hospital versus at home, for example, would be greater than 1, but that is because having cancer causes people to go to the hospital.

Relative risk is commonly used to present the results of randomized controlled trials. This can be problematic if the relative risk is presented without the absolute measures, such as absolute risk, or risk difference. In cases where the base rate of the outcome is low, large or small values of relative risk may not translate to significant effects, and the importance of the effects to the public health can be overestimated. Equivalently, in cases where the base rate of the outcome is high, values of the relative risk close to 1 may still result in a significant effect, and their effects can be underestimated. Thus, presentation of both absolute and relative measures is recommended.

Relative risk can be estimated from a 2×2 contingency table:

The point estimate of the relative risk is

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