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2009 Supervisory Capital Assessment Program
The Supervisory Capital Assessment Program, publicly described as the bank stress tests (even though a number of the companies that were subject to them were not banks), was an assessment of capital conducted by the Federal Reserve System and thrift supervisors to determine if the largest U.S. financial organizations had sufficient capital buffers to withstand the recession and the financial market turmoil. The test used two macroeconomic scenarios, one based on baseline conditions and the other with more pessimistic expectations, to plot a 'What If?' exploration into the banking situation in the rest of 2009 and into 2010. The capital levels at 19 institutions were assessed based on their Tier 1 common capital, although it was originally thought that regulators would use tangible common equity as the yardstick. The results of the tests were released on May 7, 2009, at 5pm EST.
Before the tests were completed, the central problems facing the Treasury Department were (1) whether the tests would increase or decrease confidence in any companies that did badly on their tests and (2) whether or not the $350 billion in bailout funds that remained could cover the needed funding after the tests.
The exercise was limited to bank holding companies (national banks and companies which own banks) with assets greater than $100 billion. The 19 banking organizations included in the exercise comprised the core of the US banking system, representing roughly two-thirds of aggregate U.S. bank holding company assets.
The supervisors conducted the capital assessments on an interagency basis to ensure that they were carried out in a timely and consistent manner. Each participating financial institution was instructed to analyze potential firm-wide losses, including in its loan and securities portfolios, as well as from any off-balance sheet commitments and contingent liabilities/exposures, under two defined economic scenarios over a two-year time horizon (2009 – 2010). In addition, firms with trading assets of $50 billion or more were asked to estimate potential trading-related losses under the same scenarios.
Participating financial institutions also forecasted internal resources available to absorb losses, including pre-provision net revenue and the allowance for loan losses. As part of the supervisory process, the supervisors met with senior management at each financial institution to review and discuss the institution's loss and revenue forecasts. Based on those discussions, the supervisors assessed institution-specific potential losses and estimated resources to absorb those losses under the baseline and more adverse case, and determined whether the institution had a sufficient capital buffer necessary to ensure it had the amount and quality of capital necessary to perform its vital role in the economy.
The capital assessment covered two economic scenarios: a baseline scenario and a more adverse scenario.
For implementation of the supervisory capital assessment program, the baseline assumptions for real GDP growth and the unemployment rate for 2009 and 2010 were assumed to be equal to the average of the projections published by Consensus Forecasts, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, and the Survey of Professional Forecasters in February 2009. This baseline was intended to represent a consensus view about the depth and duration of the recession. Given the current uncertain environment, there is a risk that the economy could turn out to be appreciably weaker than expected in the baseline outlook.
The assumptions for the baseline economic outlook are consistent with the house price path implied by futures prices for the Case-Shiller 10-City Composite index and the average response to a special question on house prices in the latest Blue Chip survey.
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2009 Supervisory Capital Assessment Program
The Supervisory Capital Assessment Program, publicly described as the bank stress tests (even though a number of the companies that were subject to them were not banks), was an assessment of capital conducted by the Federal Reserve System and thrift supervisors to determine if the largest U.S. financial organizations had sufficient capital buffers to withstand the recession and the financial market turmoil. The test used two macroeconomic scenarios, one based on baseline conditions and the other with more pessimistic expectations, to plot a 'What If?' exploration into the banking situation in the rest of 2009 and into 2010. The capital levels at 19 institutions were assessed based on their Tier 1 common capital, although it was originally thought that regulators would use tangible common equity as the yardstick. The results of the tests were released on May 7, 2009, at 5pm EST.
Before the tests were completed, the central problems facing the Treasury Department were (1) whether the tests would increase or decrease confidence in any companies that did badly on their tests and (2) whether or not the $350 billion in bailout funds that remained could cover the needed funding after the tests.
The exercise was limited to bank holding companies (national banks and companies which own banks) with assets greater than $100 billion. The 19 banking organizations included in the exercise comprised the core of the US banking system, representing roughly two-thirds of aggregate U.S. bank holding company assets.
The supervisors conducted the capital assessments on an interagency basis to ensure that they were carried out in a timely and consistent manner. Each participating financial institution was instructed to analyze potential firm-wide losses, including in its loan and securities portfolios, as well as from any off-balance sheet commitments and contingent liabilities/exposures, under two defined economic scenarios over a two-year time horizon (2009 – 2010). In addition, firms with trading assets of $50 billion or more were asked to estimate potential trading-related losses under the same scenarios.
Participating financial institutions also forecasted internal resources available to absorb losses, including pre-provision net revenue and the allowance for loan losses. As part of the supervisory process, the supervisors met with senior management at each financial institution to review and discuss the institution's loss and revenue forecasts. Based on those discussions, the supervisors assessed institution-specific potential losses and estimated resources to absorb those losses under the baseline and more adverse case, and determined whether the institution had a sufficient capital buffer necessary to ensure it had the amount and quality of capital necessary to perform its vital role in the economy.
The capital assessment covered two economic scenarios: a baseline scenario and a more adverse scenario.
For implementation of the supervisory capital assessment program, the baseline assumptions for real GDP growth and the unemployment rate for 2009 and 2010 were assumed to be equal to the average of the projections published by Consensus Forecasts, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, and the Survey of Professional Forecasters in February 2009. This baseline was intended to represent a consensus view about the depth and duration of the recession. Given the current uncertain environment, there is a risk that the economy could turn out to be appreciably weaker than expected in the baseline outlook.
The assumptions for the baseline economic outlook are consistent with the house price path implied by futures prices for the Case-Shiller 10-City Composite index and the average response to a special question on house prices in the latest Blue Chip survey.