Aging of Japan

Japan has the highest proportion of elderly citizens of any country in the world. 2014 estimates showed that about 38% of the Japanese population was above the age of 60, and 25.9% was above the age of 65, a figure that increased to 29.1% by 2022. By 2050, an estimated one-third of the population in Japan is expected to be 65 and older. Population aging in Japan preceded similar trends in other countries, such as South Korea and China.

The ageing of Japanese society, characterized by sub-replacement fertility rates and high life expectancy, is expected to continue. Japan had a post-war baby boom between 1947 and 1949, followed by a prolonged period of low fertility. These trends resulted in the decline of Japan's population after reaching a peak of 128.1 million in October 2008. In 2014, Japan's population was estimated to be 127 million. This figure is expected to shrink to 107 million (by 16%) by 2040 and to 97 million (by 24%) by 2050 if this current demographic trend continues. A 2020 global analysis found that Japan was one of 23 countries that could see a total population decline of 50% or more by 2100. These trends have led some researchers to claim that Japan is transforming into a "super-ageing" society in both rural and urban areas.

Japanese citizens largely view Japan as comfortable and modern, with no widespread sense of a "population crisis". The Japanese government has responded to concerns about the stresses demographic changes place on the economy and social services with policies intended to restore the fertility rate as well as increase the activity of the elderly in society.

From 1974 to 2014, the number of Japanese people 65 years or older nearly quadrupled, accounting for 26% of Japan's population at 33 million individuals. In the same period, the proportion of children aged 14 and younger decreased from 24.3% in 1975 to 12.8% in 2014. The number of elderly people surpassed the number of children in 1997. Sales of adult diapers surpassed diapers for babies in 2014. This change in the demographic makeup of Japanese society, referred to as population ageing (kōreikashakai, 高齢化社会), has taken place in a shorter period of time than in any other country.

According to population projections based on the current fertility rate, individuals over the age of 65 will account for 40% of the population by 2060, and the total population will fall by one-third from 128 million in 2010 to 87 million by 2060. The proportion of old Japanese citizens will soon level off. However, due to stagnant birth rates, it is estimated that the proportion of young people (under the age of 19) in Japan will constitute only 13 percent in the year 2060, decreasing from 40 percent in 1960.

Economists at Tohoku University established a countdown to national extinction, which projects that Japan will have only one remaining child in 4205. These predictions prompted a pledge by Prime Minister Shinzō Abe to set a threshold for population decline at 100 million.

Japan's life expectancy was 85.1 years in 2016: 81.7 years for males and 88.5 years for females. As Japan's overall population shrinks due to low fertility rates, the proportion of the elderly increases.

Life expectancy at birth increased rapidly from the end of World War II — when the average life expectancy was 54 years for women and 50 for men — and the percentage of the population aged 65 years and older has increased steadily since the 1950s. Japan is a well-known example, with close to 30 percent of its population aged 65 years or older. The increase in life expectancy translated into a depressed mortality rate until the 1980s, but mortality has increased again to a historic high, since 1950, of 10.1 per 1000 people in 2013.