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Potential superpower
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Potential superpower
A potential superpower is a sovereign state or other polity that is speculated to be or have the potential to become a superpower; a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position and can exert influence and project power on a global scale through economic, military, technological, political, or cultural means.
The United States is currently considered the world's foremost superpower, as it is the only country whose status as a superpower finds broad consensus, with some accounts explicitly calling it the only one.[needs update] China has received significant coverage as either a potential or established superpower. The European Union, Russia and India have also been discussed as potential superpowers of the 21st century; Japan was a former candidate in the 1980s.
The People's Republic of China has arguably received the most consistent coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status, and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts. One source argued that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower, having high economic growth and a large population. According to former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, China represents the "biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century" to the United States, as it is "the only country with enough power to jeopardize the current global order".
There has been great focus on China's growing economic activity on the global stage, in particular where it has been in competition with the United States: for example, the establishment and large-scale expansion in countries joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in contrast to traditional western institutions, along with the Belt and Road Initiative and China's role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX. It has also been argued that there is likely to be growing competition in future between two highly dominant countries, the United States and China, while others begin to lag behind economically. It has also been predicted that China may overtake the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s. Due to the country's rapidly developing AI industry, China has also been referred to as an "AI superpower".
But some have questioned how long this pace of economic growth could continue, with emphasis placed not only on China's very large but ageing and shrinking population of over 1.4 billion, but also long-term effects of pollution within the country that have accumulated during its fast pace of industrialisation. The damage to the country's environment has been extremely costly, mostly due to an inability of poor regions to afford environmental regulations, but also a broader freshwater crisis stemming from inefficient management, pollution, and climate change. China also has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country in the same way other countries like the United States have. A supposed lack of soft power is another aspect of contention to China's status as a potential superpower.
The United States military planners considers China as the US' most capable and formidable adversary. There has been argument that its ties with Russia and Central Asia could see the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation become the "NATO of the East". It has also been argued that American absence from the Indo-Pacific region during the war on terror has allowed the Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region. But others have argued that China is still surrounded by potentially hostile nations, and lacks the friends or allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.
The European Union (EU) has been called an emerging or current superpower, mainly due to its economic power and global political influence. Factors highlighted have included its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy.
Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still in the hands of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower. Others disagree, saying that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines its claim to be a potential superpower.
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Potential superpower
A potential superpower is a sovereign state or other polity that is speculated to be or have the potential to become a superpower; a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position and can exert influence and project power on a global scale through economic, military, technological, political, or cultural means.
The United States is currently considered the world's foremost superpower, as it is the only country whose status as a superpower finds broad consensus, with some accounts explicitly calling it the only one.[needs update] China has received significant coverage as either a potential or established superpower. The European Union, Russia and India have also been discussed as potential superpowers of the 21st century; Japan was a former candidate in the 1980s.
The People's Republic of China has arguably received the most consistent coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status, and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts. One source argued that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower, having high economic growth and a large population. According to former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, China represents the "biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century" to the United States, as it is "the only country with enough power to jeopardize the current global order".
There has been great focus on China's growing economic activity on the global stage, in particular where it has been in competition with the United States: for example, the establishment and large-scale expansion in countries joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in contrast to traditional western institutions, along with the Belt and Road Initiative and China's role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX. It has also been argued that there is likely to be growing competition in future between two highly dominant countries, the United States and China, while others begin to lag behind economically. It has also been predicted that China may overtake the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s. Due to the country's rapidly developing AI industry, China has also been referred to as an "AI superpower".
But some have questioned how long this pace of economic growth could continue, with emphasis placed not only on China's very large but ageing and shrinking population of over 1.4 billion, but also long-term effects of pollution within the country that have accumulated during its fast pace of industrialisation. The damage to the country's environment has been extremely costly, mostly due to an inability of poor regions to afford environmental regulations, but also a broader freshwater crisis stemming from inefficient management, pollution, and climate change. China also has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country in the same way other countries like the United States have. A supposed lack of soft power is another aspect of contention to China's status as a potential superpower.
The United States military planners considers China as the US' most capable and formidable adversary. There has been argument that its ties with Russia and Central Asia could see the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation become the "NATO of the East". It has also been argued that American absence from the Indo-Pacific region during the war on terror has allowed the Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region. But others have argued that China is still surrounded by potentially hostile nations, and lacks the friends or allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.
The European Union (EU) has been called an emerging or current superpower, mainly due to its economic power and global political influence. Factors highlighted have included its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy.
Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still in the hands of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower. Others disagree, saying that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines its claim to be a potential superpower.
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