Division of Macarthur

The Division of Macarthur is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.

It is centred on Campbelltown in the Macarthur region within South Western Sydney. Since 2016 its Member of Parliament (MP) has been Mike Freelander of the Australian Labor Party.

The division is named after John Macarthur and his wife Elizabeth, who were both pioneers of Australia's wool industry. The main products and work in the electorate are in the fruit and vegetable production, lucerne and fodder crops, wine, dairy cattle and horse-breeding.

Macarthur has changed hands regularly over the years as redistributions have favoured different parties. Macarthur was a bellwether seat from the time of its establishment in 1949 until the 2007 election—during that 58-year period it was always held by a member of the governing party or coalition. Originally a hybrid urban-rural seat stretching from southwest Sydney to the Southern Highlands and the South Coast, successive redistributions have shrunk the geographical size of the seat due to the rapid growth of the Campbelltown area. In the redistribution prior to the 2001 federal election, Southern Highlands towns such as Bowral and Moss Vale were removed, shrinking the seat to one eighth of its original size and making it an entirely Sydney-based seat. This made the seat notionally Labor by 1.3%, from the previous 5.6% of the Liberals, prompting Liberal minister and former New South Wales premier John Fahey to retire. However, his replacement as Liberal candidate, former ultra-marathoner, Pat Farmer, achieved an 8.3-point swing to retain the seat for the Liberals, actually tallying a primary vote large enough to win without the need for preferences. He increased the margin from 7 to 9.5 points at the 2004 election.

Ahead of the 2007 election, a redistribution seemingly consolidated Farmer's hold on the seat; the Liberal majority was boosted to 11.1%. However, Farmer was nearly defeated in the election, suffering a swing of 10.4 points. The swing was spread evenly across the electorate, reflecting its solid mortgage-belt character. The swing was particularly large in the heavily mortgaged suburbs of Narellan, Camden and the traditionally more Labor-voting areas of Campbelltown. Farmer's margin was reduced to an extremely marginal 0.7 points. A further redistribution in 2010 made it notionally a Labor seat. Farmer was defeated for Liberal preselection by Campbelltown mayor Russell Matheson, who was able to retain the seat for the Liberals. Matheson gained a large swing at the 2013 election, increasing the Liberal margin to 11.1 points. The Liberal margin was reduced to just 3.3 points in the redistribution before the 2016 election, and additionally, a ReachTEL poll of 628 voters conducted in Macarthur during the election campaign saw Labor leading the Liberals. At the 2016 election Labor challenger Mike Freelander took the seat off the Liberals on a swing of just under 12 points, ending the Liberals' 20-year hold on the seat and turning it into a safe Labor seat at one stroke. Freelander actually won enough votes on the first count to defeat Matheson without the need for preferences.

Ahead of the 2016 federal election, ABC psephologist Antony Green listed the seat in his election guide as one of eleven which he classed as bellwether electorates.

Since 1984 federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.

When the division was created in 1949, it covered a large area that consisted of the outskirts of Sydney and rural areas outside of Sydney. Within Sydney, it covered areas in Western Sydney such as Penrith (partially), South Penrith and Emu Plains, as well as areas south and west of Liverpool, such as Bringelly, Camden and Campbelltown. Outside Sydney, it covered areas in the Lower Blue Mountains, the Southern Highlands and South Coast, extending up to Wentworth Falls in the west and the Jervis Bay Territory in the south. These areas were previously part of the divisions of Werriwa (south-west Sydney and Southern Highlands), Macquarie (Lower Blue Mountains and Penrith) and Eden-Monaro (South Coast).