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Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling (abbreviated as DSGE, or DGE, or sometimes SDGE) is a macroeconomic method which is often employed by monetary and fiscal authorities for policy analysis, explaining historical time-series data, as well as future forecasting purposes. DSGE econometric modelling applies general equilibrium theory and microeconomic principles in a tractable manner to postulate economic phenomena, such as economic growth and business cycles, as well as policy effects and market shocks.
As a practical matter, people often use the term "DSGE models" to refer to a particular class of classically quantitative econometric models of business cycles or economic growth called real business cycle (RBC) models. DSGE models were initially proposed in the 1980s by Kydland & Prescott, and Long & Plosser; Charles Plosser described RBC models as a precursor for DSGE modeling.
As mentioned in the Introduction, DSGE models are the predominant framework of macroeconomic analysis. They are multifaceted, and their combination of micro-foundations and optimising economic behaviour of rational agents allows for a comprehensive analysis of macro effects. As indicated by their name, their defining characteristics are as follows:
The formulation and analysis of monetary policy has undergone significant evolution in recent decades and the development of DSGE models has played a key role in this process. As was aforementioned DSGE models are seen to be an update of RBC (real business cycle) models.
Early real business-cycle models postulated an economy populated by a representative consumer who operates in perfectly competitive markets. The only sources of uncertainty in these models are "shocks" in technology. RBC theory builds on the neoclassical growth model, under the assumption of flexible prices, to study how real shocks to the economy might cause business cycle fluctuations.
The "representative consumer" assumption can either be taken literally or reflect a Gorman aggregation of heterogenous consumers who are facing idiosyncratic income shocks and complete markets in all assets. These models took the position that fluctuations in aggregate economic activity are actually an "efficient response" of the economy to exogenous shocks.
The models were criticized on a number of issues:
In a 1976 paper, Robert Lucas argued that it is naive to try to predict the effects of a change in economic policy entirely on the basis of relationships observed in historical data, especially highly aggregated historical data. Lucas claimed that the decision rules of Keynesian models, such as the fiscal multiplier, cannot be considered as structural, in the sense that they cannot be invariant with respect to changes in government policy variables, stating:
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Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling (abbreviated as DSGE, or DGE, or sometimes SDGE) is a macroeconomic method which is often employed by monetary and fiscal authorities for policy analysis, explaining historical time-series data, as well as future forecasting purposes. DSGE econometric modelling applies general equilibrium theory and microeconomic principles in a tractable manner to postulate economic phenomena, such as economic growth and business cycles, as well as policy effects and market shocks.
As a practical matter, people often use the term "DSGE models" to refer to a particular class of classically quantitative econometric models of business cycles or economic growth called real business cycle (RBC) models. DSGE models were initially proposed in the 1980s by Kydland & Prescott, and Long & Plosser; Charles Plosser described RBC models as a precursor for DSGE modeling.
As mentioned in the Introduction, DSGE models are the predominant framework of macroeconomic analysis. They are multifaceted, and their combination of micro-foundations and optimising economic behaviour of rational agents allows for a comprehensive analysis of macro effects. As indicated by their name, their defining characteristics are as follows:
The formulation and analysis of monetary policy has undergone significant evolution in recent decades and the development of DSGE models has played a key role in this process. As was aforementioned DSGE models are seen to be an update of RBC (real business cycle) models.
Early real business-cycle models postulated an economy populated by a representative consumer who operates in perfectly competitive markets. The only sources of uncertainty in these models are "shocks" in technology. RBC theory builds on the neoclassical growth model, under the assumption of flexible prices, to study how real shocks to the economy might cause business cycle fluctuations.
The "representative consumer" assumption can either be taken literally or reflect a Gorman aggregation of heterogenous consumers who are facing idiosyncratic income shocks and complete markets in all assets. These models took the position that fluctuations in aggregate economic activity are actually an "efficient response" of the economy to exogenous shocks.
The models were criticized on a number of issues:
In a 1976 paper, Robert Lucas argued that it is naive to try to predict the effects of a change in economic policy entirely on the basis of relationships observed in historical data, especially highly aggregated historical data. Lucas claimed that the decision rules of Keynesian models, such as the fiscal multiplier, cannot be considered as structural, in the sense that they cannot be invariant with respect to changes in government policy variables, stating: