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John Hollinger
John Hollinger
John Hollinger
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John Hollinger (born May 17, 1971) is the former Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies of the National Basketball Association (NBA) and current Senior NBA columnist at The Athletic. Prior to December 2012, he was an analyst and writer for ESPN, primarily covering the NBA. Hollinger grew up in Mahwah, New Jersey, and is a 1993 graduate of the University of Virginia.

Hollinger developed the website Alleyoop in 1996, initially as a hobby and sounding board. Touting the site as "The Basketball Page for Thinking Fans", Hollinger followed in the footsteps of Dean Oliver and Bob Bellotti to attempt to develop the ultimate basketball statistic. During Alleyoop's early years, Hollinger experimented with offensive and defensive ratings (points created and allowed per 100 possessions) in much the same way as Oliver, as a means of quantifying a player's overall contribution to his team. Hollinger's writing style and incisive commentary caught the eye of such industry luminaries as the magazine Web and The Wall Street Journal.

Hollinger spent the next three years as the sports editor at OregonLive.com,. It was during his OregonLive years that Hollinger developed his Player Efficiency Rating (PER), a figure that attempts to combine all of a player's contributions into one number. After his stint in Portland, Hollinger was hired as the basketball editor at SI.com, Sports Illustrated's online sister site. In 2002, Hollinger released the first Pro Basketball Prospectus which was his first work published in print.

Hollinger has authored three more Prospectuses, now called Pro Basketball Forecasts. He left Sports Illustrated to write for ESPN.com in the summer of 2005, and his weekly columns were available through their "insider" subscription service. Additionally, Hollinger wrote for the New York Sun's sports section. Hollinger has appeared every year on the basketball analytics panel, at the annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.[1]

Hollinger game score

[edit]

As an extension of the Player Efficiency Rating, Hollinger also developed a simpler formula that quantifies how impressive a player's individual performance is in a given game. The Hollinger game score formula is:

The game score was created to give a rough measure of a player's productivity for a single game. The scale is similar to that of points scored, (40 is an outstanding performance, 10 is an average performance, etc.). The entire modern box score of the player is needed for calculation, including offensive and defensive rebounding, steals, blocks and turnovers, so the Hollinger Game Score can only be applied to games played since the 1978 season.

References

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John Hollinger

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John Hollinger is an American basketball analyst, author, and former executive renowned for pioneering advanced statistical metrics in the NBA, most notably the (PER), a per-minute measure of player productivity that adjusts for pace and team context. A alumnus who graduated in 1993 with degrees in and , Hollinger began his career in sports media as a sports editor for OregonLive in the 1990s before advancing to roles at SI.com and , where he wrote extensively on NBA analytics from the early 2000s onward. In December 2012, Hollinger transitioned to NBA front-office work when he was hired by the as Vice President of Operations, a position he held for seven seasons until 2019, during which he contributed to player evaluation, scouting, and strategic decision-making amid the team's push toward data-driven operations. In September 2019, he returned to media as a senior NBA columnist for , where he continues to produce in-depth analysis on , player trades, and draft prospects, including his annual top prospects rankings for events like the 2025 . Hollinger's influence extends to authorship, having published multiple editions of Pro Basketball Forecast in the 2000s and co-editing The Basketball 100: A History of the Game Through Its Greatest Players in 2024, which profiles 100 iconic NBA figures and debates topics like the greatest player of all time. His innovations in analytics earned him the Lifetime Achievement Award at the 2018 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, recognizing his role as one of the field's foundational figures.

Early life and education

Early life

John Hollinger was born on May 17, 1971, in Mahwah, New Jersey. He grew up in the suburban community of Mahwah, where he developed an early passion for sports, particularly basketball. As a teenager in the 1980s, Hollinger became fascinated with sports analytics after reading the baseball statistics books of Bill James, which introduced him to alternative ways of evaluating athletic performance beyond traditional metrics. This personal hobby sparked his interest in applying statistical analysis to basketball, laying the groundwork for his later innovations in the field. Hollinger attended Mahwah High School before pursuing higher education at the University of Virginia.

Education

Hollinger attended the , where he earned a double major in and , graduating in 1993. His coursework in provided a foundational understanding of quantitative analysis and data interpretation, which later informed his development of metrics. During his time at UVA, Hollinger developed a keen interest in through self-directed reading, particularly ' books on , which he sought to adapt to . He enjoyed attending ACC games at University Hall and football games at , including a memorable 1990 football victory over Clemson where fans, including Hollinger, tore down the goalposts in celebration. These experiences, combined with his affinity for math and multidisciplinary classes on topics like and technological impacts, honed his analytical mindset toward applying statistical methods to sports. No specific academic honors are recorded from his undergraduate studies, though his economics background equipped him with skills in modeling and evaluation that became central to his in NBA .

Media and writing career

Early online work

In 1996, John Hollinger founded the website as an independent platform dedicated to advanced analysis, marking his entry into online . Initially conceived as a personal project, the site featured in-depth statistical breakdowns and commentary aimed at discerning fans, positioning Hollinger as an early innovator in digital discourse. Hollinger's contributions on Alleyoop included pioneering explorations of player performance metrics and game strategy, which garnered attention within niche basketball communities and helped establish the site's reputation for thoughtful, data-driven insights. These early publications laid the groundwork for his recognition as a trailblazer in online , influencing subsequent developments in the field by demonstrating the potential of web-based platforms for accessible, rigorous analysis. Building on Alleyoop's success, Hollinger transitioned to professional roles in sports media, joining OregonLive.com in 1998 as an online sports editor, where he honed his expertise in NBA coverage over three years. He later advanced to basketball editor at SI.com, Sports Illustrated's digital arm, further expanding his reach through professional writing and editorial oversight.

ESPN tenure

John Hollinger joined in February 2005 as a , serving in that role for eight seasons until 2012. During his tenure, he became a leading voice in NBA coverage, specializing in advanced statistical to evaluate players and teams. His contributions extended beyond writing to developing interactive tools, such as customizable player and team stat pages, which allowed fans and analysts to explore metrics like effective field goal percentage and . A cornerstone of Hollinger's ESPN work was his "PER Diem" column, published weekdays throughout the NBA season, which delved into player efficiency using his (PER) and other proprietary metrics. In these pieces, he broke down individual performances—such as highlighting a player's per-minute productivity or comparing team efficiencies—and applied economic principles to traditional stats, revealing insights like the value of pace-adjusted scoring. The column's rigorous, data-driven approach influenced broader NBA discourse by demystifying advanced analytics and integrating them into everyday fan conversations. Hollinger's efforts at helped transition basketball analytics from a fringe pursuit to a mainstream staple, with his playoff odds projections and power rankings becoming staples of preseason and in-season coverage. By 2012, after nearly eight years, he departed to pursue an opportunity in NBA front-office operations with the .

Books and publications

John Hollinger authored the first four editions of the annual Pro Basketball Prospectus and Forecast series, published by Potomac Books, beginning with the edition, which served as a comprehensive preseason guide to the NBA. These volumes provided detailed team-by-team analyses, evaluating recent performances and forecasting upcoming season outcomes based on statistical trends and strategic insights. Each book included breakdowns of over 400 players, assessing their rebounding, passing, scoring abilities, and overall impact on team success through innovative statistical interpretations beyond traditional metrics. The 2003 edition expanded on these elements with predictions for the 2003-2004 season, incorporating essays on historical topics such as the greatest rebounders in NBA history and the effects of rule changes on . Subsequent releases, including the 2004-05 and 2005-06 Forecasts, offered updated player projections, concise team overviews addressing performance issues, and data-driven evaluations to aid fans and analysts in understanding roster dynamics. Hollinger's work in these publications introduced concepts like possession-based ratings and similarity scores for predicting player development, filling a gap in accessible NBA literature and influencing general managers, coaches, and scouts. In addition to the Prospectus series, Hollinger co-edited The Basketball 100: The Story of the Greatest Players in NBA History with in 2024, published by William Morrow, which ranks and profiles the top 100 NBA players through a blend of historical narratives and perspectives. This book draws on contributions from The Athletic's NBA staff to celebrate the sport's icons, emphasizing their statistical legacies and cultural impact. Through these long-form projects, Hollinger's publications advanced the integration of into mainstream basketball discourse during his media career.

NBA front office role

Hiring by Grizzlies

On December 13, 2012, the Memphis Grizzlies announced the hiring of John Hollinger as Vice President of Basketball Operations, marking his transition from ESPN to an NBA front office role. Hollinger, who had established himself as a leading voice in basketball analytics during his nearly eight-year tenure at ESPN, viewed the opportunity as irresistible and began work the following week. The Grizzlies' decision to hire Hollinger was driven by new controlling owner and CEO , who prioritized enhancing the team's capabilities as part of a broader front-office overhaul. At the time, the franchise sought to integrate advanced statistical analysis more deeply into its operations, following the departure of previous Aaron Barzilai to the . This move aligned with Levien's vision, informed by his prior experience as an assistant in Sacramento, to bring sophisticated yet accessible expertise in-house. The announcement also included the hiring of Stu Lash as Director of Player Personnel and Basketball Development, underscoring the team's commitment to innovative personnel additions. Hollinger's shift from media analyst to executive required adjustments, including relocation logistics and immersion in the Grizzlies' internal processes, as he bid farewell to public writing in a reflective ESPN column. He noted the challenge of moving from independent commentary to collaborative, confidential team decision-making, while expressing enthusiasm for contributing to a franchise increasingly embracing . This hiring represented one of the early instances of an NBA team recruiting a prominent media figure for a high-level operational role.

Responsibilities and achievements

As of Basketball Operations for the from 2012 to 2019, John Hollinger oversaw the team's department and played a central role in player evaluation processes. His duties included assessing talent through a combination of traditional and data-driven metrics, which helped inform decisions on prospective players during drafts, trades, and free agency signings. Hollinger also contributed to roster construction by advising on contract extensions, management, and overall team strategy, emphasizing sustainable building around core players. In 2018, Hollinger was promoted to Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations, expanding his influence within the front office under General Manager . During this period, he continued to integrate advanced into ' decision-making, particularly in identifying undervalued talent that aligned with the team's defensive-oriented identity. His background, rooted in metrics like , provided a quantitative edge to qualitative scouting reports. Key achievements under Hollinger's tenure included leading the scouting efforts that resulted in the selection of in the second round of the (45th overall), a move that paid off as Brooks emerged as a reliable perimeter defender and three-point shooter. He was also involved in the acquisitions of foundational pieces such as (fourth overall pick in 2018) and (second overall in 2019), which helped establish a young, high-potential core capable of playoff contention. Additionally, Hollinger contributed to strategic trades, including the 2019 deal that brought to Memphis, bolstering the team's backcourt depth. These efforts supported the ' transition from a veteran-led roster to a more agile, analytics-informed group. Hollinger's role evolved amid organizational changes, and in April 2019, he transitioned to a senior advisory position before departing the team later that year, having spent seven seasons enhancing ' analytical capabilities in operations.

Current positions

Return to media

In April 2019, amid a broader front-office restructuring by the , John Hollinger was demoted from his position as vice president of operations to a senior advisory role. This change followed the team's struggles, including a 33-49 record in the 2018-19 season, and came alongside the firing of head coach and the reassignment of general manager . Hollinger ultimately departed the organization in September 2019 after seven years in the front office. Following his exit from the Grizzlies, Hollinger returned to journalism by joining as a senior NBA columnist in September 2019. He has held this position continuously since then, contributing in-depth coverage of NBA personnel moves, team strategies, and league trends as of November 2025. His Grizzlies tenure, which provided hands-on experience in , trades, and roster building, has informed his media work by offering a unique blend of analytical rigor and practical front-office perspectives. Hollinger's columns at often integrate these insights into evaluations of player value, trade scenarios, and seasonal outlooks. For instance, his annual NBA win projections use statistical models to forecast team performance, such as his October 2024 analysis identifying the , , and as potential overachievers based on roster upgrades and metrics. He has also dissected free agency and trade markets, drawing on internal decision-making processes to assess deals like those reshaping contenders in the Western Conference, as highlighted in his introductory piece on the league's competitive landscape. These pieces emphasize conceptual strategies over granular data, providing readers with a front-office lens on NBA dynamics.

Analytics conference involvement

John Hollinger has been a regular panelist at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, the premier event for sports analytics professionals, where he shares insights from his extensive career in basketball analysis and front-office decision-making. His appearances span multiple years, including notable sessions dating back to at least 2011, when he participated in a basketball analytics panel alongside figures like Mark Cuban and Mike Zarren. In recognition of his longstanding contributions to the field, Hollinger received the Lifetime Achievement Award at the conference in 2018. Hollinger's panels often focus on the practical applications of analytics in the NBA, such as roster construction, player evaluation, and integrating data into front-office strategies. For instance, in a 2012 discussion, he addressed the challenges of communicating statistical value to coaches and executives, emphasizing the need to bridge quantitative insights with on-court realities. More recently, at the 2025 conference, he joined the panel "The Analytics-Driven Franchise: Building a Modern NBA Team," exploring topics like using advanced metrics and tracking data for drafting, player development, and in-game tactics, while balancing analytics with traditional basketball instincts. Through these engagements, Hollinger has influenced the broader analytics community by fostering dialogue on how data-driven approaches can enhance NBA operations and inspire emerging analysts. His Lifetime Achievement Award underscores his role in advancing the conference's mission since its early days, helping to elevate from niche hobby to integral industry practice.

Contributions to basketball analytics

Player Efficiency Rating

John Hollinger developed the (PER) in the mid-1990s on his website as a comprehensive metric to assess a player's per-minute productivity, later detailing it in his book Pro Basketball Forecast and during his analytical work at . PER builds on earlier concepts like offensive and defensive ratings by integrating a wide array of box-score statistics into a single, pace-adjusted value normalized to a league average of 15.00. This approach allows for equitable comparisons across players, teams, and eras, regardless of varying game tempos or playing time. The core formula for PER begins with an unadjusted per-minute rating (uPER), which sums a player's positive contributions—such as field goals, three-pointers, free throws, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks—while subtracting negatives like missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls, all weighted relative to league averages and team context. Mathematically, it is expressed as: uPER=1MP[3P+(23)AST+(2−factor⋅team_ASTteam_FG)FG+(FT⋅0.5⋅(1+(1−team_ASTteam_FG)+(23)⋅team_ASTteam_FG))−VOP⋅TOV−VOP⋅DRB%⋅(FGA−FG)−VOP⋅0.44⋅(0.44+(0.56⋅DRB%))⋅(FTA−FT)+VOP⋅(1−DRB%)⋅(TRB−ORB)+VOP⋅DRB%⋅ORB+VOP⋅STL+VOP⋅DRB%⋅BLK−PF⋅((lg_FTlg_PF)−0.44⋅(lg_FTAlg_PF)⋅VOP)]\text{uPER} = \frac{1}{\text{MP}} \left[ 3P + \left(\frac{2}{3}\right) \text{AST} + \left(2 - \text{factor} \cdot \frac{\text{team\_AST}}{\text{team\_FG}}\right) \text{FG} + \left(\text{FT} \cdot 0.5 \cdot \left(1 + \left(1 - \frac{\text{team\_AST}}{\text{team\_FG}}\right) + \left(\frac{2}{3}\right) \cdot \frac{\text{team\_AST}}{\text{team\_FG}}\right)\right) - \text{VOP} \cdot \text{TOV} - \text{VOP} \cdot \text{DRB\%} \cdot (\text{FGA} - \text{FG}) - \text{VOP} \cdot 0.44 \cdot (0.44 + (0.56 \cdot \text{DRB\%})) \cdot (\text{FTA} - \text{FT}) + \text{VOP} \cdot (1 - \text{DRB\%}) \cdot (\text{TRB} - \text{ORB}) + \text{VOP} \cdot \text{DRB\%} \cdot \text{ORB} + \text{VOP} \cdot \text{STL} + \text{VOP} \cdot \text{DRB\%} \cdot \text{BLK} - \text{PF} \cdot \left(\left(\frac{\text{lg\_FT}}{\text{lg\_PF}}\right) - 0.44 \cdot \left(\frac{\text{lg\_FTA}}{\text{lg\_PF}}\right) \cdot \text{VOP}\right) \right] where factor = (23)−0.5⋅(lg_AST/lg_FG)2⋅(lg_FG/lg_FT)\left(\frac{2}{3}\right) - \frac{0.5 \cdot (\text{lg\_AST} / \text{lg\_FG})}{2 \cdot (\text{lg\_FG} / \text{lg\_FT})}, VOP (value of possession) = lg_PTSlg_FGA−lg_ORB+lg_TOV+0.44⋅lg_FTA\frac{\text{lg\_PTS}}{\text{lg\_FGA} - \text{lg\_ORB} + \text{lg\_TOV} + 0.44 \cdot \text{lg\_FTA}}, and DRB% (defensive rebound percentage) = lg_TRB−lg_ORBlg_TRB\frac{\text{lg\_TRB} - \text{lg\_ORB}}{\text{lg\_TRB}}. This is then adjusted for team pace (dividing by team pace relative to league pace) to yield an adjusted PER (aPER), and finally scaled so the league average equals 15: PER = aPER × (15 / lg_aPER). In practice, PER serves as a foundational tool for player evaluation by providing a holistic snapshot of efficiency, enabling scouts and analysts to rank performers like (PER of 27.34 in 2010-11) against role players such as (PER of 4.41 that season). Its strengths lie in unifying disparate statistics into a comparable index that accounts for pace and league context, often aligning with intuitive assessments of elite players, such as MVP candidates who frequently top annual PER leaderboards. For instance, it facilitates cross-era analysis, with data now available from the 1951-52 season onward through expansions by sites like Basketball-Reference. Despite its utility, PER has notable limitations, particularly in undervaluing elite defensive specialists who contribute through positioning and help defense without generating steals or blocks, as seen in cases like or Quinton Ross. It relies solely on box-score data, ignoring advanced play-by-play details like possession-level impacts, and assumes uniform team quality, which can skew ratings for players on mismatched rosters. Over time, while PER has remained a staple since its inception in the mid-1990s—retaining its core structure with minor data-handling adjustments for historical seasons—it has been supplemented by more nuanced metrics like Real Plus-Minus, reflecting the broader evolution of basketball analytics toward possession-based and context-rich evaluations.

Hollinger Game Score

The Hollinger Game Score is a metric developed by basketball analyst John Hollinger to provide a rough, box-score-based measure of a player's overall productivity in a single NBA game. It assigns weights to various statistics to capture both positive contributions like scoring and rebounding, as well as negative ones such as missed shots and turnovers, resulting in a single numerical value that approximates a player's impact. Unlike more complex season-long metrics, it is designed for straightforward, game-by-game evaluation without pace or team adjustments. The formula for Hollinger Game Score is: Game Score=PTS+0.4×FG−0.7×FGA−0.4×(FTA−FT)+0.7×ORB+0.3×DRB+STL+0.7×AST+0.7×BLK−0.4×PF−TOV\text{Game Score} = \text{PTS} + 0.4 \times \text{FG} - 0.7 \times \text{FGA} - 0.4 \times (\text{FTA} - \text{FT}) + 0.7 \times \text{ORB} + 0.3 \times \text{DRB} + \text{STL} + 0.7 \times \text{AST} + 0.7 \times \text{BLK} - 0.4 \times \text{PF} - \text{TOV} where PTS is points, FG is field goals made, FGA is field goal attempts, FTA is free throw attempts, FT is free throws made, ORB is offensive rebounds, DRB is defensive rebounds, STL is steals, AST is assists, BLK is blocks, PF is personal fouls, and TOV is turnovers. This equation emphasizes efficient scoring and playmaking while penalizing inefficiency and errors, producing scores where 40 represents an outstanding performance, 10 is average, and negative values indicate poor games. Analysts use the Hollinger Game Score for rapid assessments of individual contributions, such as identifying standout efforts in high-stakes matchups or evaluating consistency across games. For instance, holds the modern-era record with a 64.6 Game Score on March 28, 1990, against the , driven by 69 points, 18 rebounds, and 11 assists. Similarly, Kobe Bryant's iconic 81-point outing on January 22, 2006, versus the yielded a 63.5 Game Score, highlighting how the metric rewards volume scoring tempered by efficiency. Compared to traditional stats like points alone, it offers a more holistic view by incorporating defensive and possession-based actions, though it remains a simplified tool relative to broader efficiency measures like the .

Other innovations

Beyond his flagship metrics like the and , John Hollinger pioneered the widespread use of offensive and defensive ratings in NBA analysis, measuring points scored and allowed per 100 possessions to provide a pace-independent view of and player performance. These ratings, first experimented with on his early website in the late , offered a more accurate assessment of efficiency by accounting for the varying tempo of games, influencing how analysts evaluate defensive impact beyond traditional box-score stats. Hollinger also advanced pace-adjusted statistics, normalizing raw numbers like points and rebounds to reflect performance across teams playing at different speeds, which became essential for cross-era and cross-team comparisons. This approach, integrated into his analytical frameworks during his time at and in his Pro Basketball Prospectus series, helped demystify how tempo affects scoring and rebounding rates, enabling fairer evaluations of players in fast- versus slow-paced systems. In addition, Hollinger contributed to team efficiency metrics, combining offensive and defensive ratings into holistic measures of overall team productivity that guide front-office decisions on roster construction and strategy. These tools emphasized the balance between scoring efficiency and defensive stops, providing quantifiable insights into why certain lineups succeed or fail. Hollinger's innovations have profoundly shaped modern NBA , with offensive, defensive, and pace-adjusted metrics now standard in team scouting, media commentary, and broadcast graphics across the league. Their adoption by NBA front offices, including during his own tenure with the , underscores their practical impact, while his 2018 Lifetime Achievement Award at the MIT Sloan Sports Conference recognizes his role in mainstreaming data-driven evaluation.

References

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  24. https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/grizzlies-fire-j-b-bickerstaff-re-assign-chris-wallace.html
  25. https://www.nba.com/news/memphis-grizzlies-front-office-shakeup
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  27. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/author/john-hollinger/
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  33. https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html
  34. https://squared2020.com/2017/09/01/breaking-down-player-efficiency-rating/
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  38. https://themidfield.com/nba-betting/john-hollinger-nba-metrics/
  39. https://www.sonicscentral.com/statsite.html
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