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Marginal seat
A marginal seat or swing seat is a constituency held with a small majority in a legislative election, generally one conducted under a single-winner voting system. In Canada, they may be known as target ridings. The opposite is a safe seat. The term ultra-marginal seat refers to a constituency with a majority of single digits, usually within a percentage of 2%.
Examples of traditionally marginal seats in the United Kingdom include Broxtowe, Watford, Bolton West and Thurrock. In Australia, marginal seats include Lindsay in New South Wales, Bass in Tasmania, Longman in Queensland and Corangamite in Victoria. Ultra-marginal seats in Australia include the federal seat of Gilmore in New South Wales and the state seats of Bundaberg in Queensland and Kogarah in New South Wales.
The Australian Electoral Commission defines seat margins as follows:
Following the 2022 federal election, 51 of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives are considered "marginal". The most marginal is the Division of Gilmore in New South Wales, held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.17% against the Liberal Party. This seat was retained by Labor by just over 300 votes.
Following the 2023 state election, 18 of the 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly are marginal seats. The most marginal is Ryde, held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.01% against the Labor Party. This seat was won by Jordan Lane by just 50 votes on the first count (and 54 on the recount), successfully succeeding outgoing Liberal MP Victor Dominello. It is believed that the seat became marginal due to the Dominello's departure, due to his popularity in the area.
Following the 2024 general election, eight of the 25 seats in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly are marginal seats. The most marginal is Nightcliff, held by the Greens on a margin of 0.4% against the Labor Party, who lost the seat by just 36 votes.
Following the 2020 state election, 29 of the 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland are marginal seats. The most marginal is the Bundaberg, held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.01% against the Liberal National Party, who lost the seat by just nine votes.
Following the 2022 state election, 17 of the 47 seats in the South Australian Legislative Assembly are marginal seats. The most marginal is Dunstan, held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.8% against the Labor Party. Notably, this seat is held by former Liberal leader Steven Marshall, who was also the state's Premier until this election.
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Marginal seat
A marginal seat or swing seat is a constituency held with a small majority in a legislative election, generally one conducted under a single-winner voting system. In Canada, they may be known as target ridings. The opposite is a safe seat. The term ultra-marginal seat refers to a constituency with a majority of single digits, usually within a percentage of 2%.
Examples of traditionally marginal seats in the United Kingdom include Broxtowe, Watford, Bolton West and Thurrock. In Australia, marginal seats include Lindsay in New South Wales, Bass in Tasmania, Longman in Queensland and Corangamite in Victoria. Ultra-marginal seats in Australia include the federal seat of Gilmore in New South Wales and the state seats of Bundaberg in Queensland and Kogarah in New South Wales.
The Australian Electoral Commission defines seat margins as follows:
Following the 2022 federal election, 51 of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives are considered "marginal". The most marginal is the Division of Gilmore in New South Wales, held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.17% against the Liberal Party. This seat was retained by Labor by just over 300 votes.
Following the 2023 state election, 18 of the 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly are marginal seats. The most marginal is Ryde, held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.01% against the Labor Party. This seat was won by Jordan Lane by just 50 votes on the first count (and 54 on the recount), successfully succeeding outgoing Liberal MP Victor Dominello. It is believed that the seat became marginal due to the Dominello's departure, due to his popularity in the area.
Following the 2024 general election, eight of the 25 seats in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly are marginal seats. The most marginal is Nightcliff, held by the Greens on a margin of 0.4% against the Labor Party, who lost the seat by just 36 votes.
Following the 2020 state election, 29 of the 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland are marginal seats. The most marginal is the Bundaberg, held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.01% against the Liberal National Party, who lost the seat by just nine votes.
Following the 2022 state election, 17 of the 47 seats in the South Australian Legislative Assembly are marginal seats. The most marginal is Dunstan, held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.8% against the Labor Party. Notably, this seat is held by former Liberal leader Steven Marshall, who was also the state's Premier until this election.