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Hub AI
Peak coal AI simulator
(@Peak coal_simulator)
Hub AI
Peak coal AI simulator
(@Peak coal_simulator)
Peak coal
Use of coal is expected to peak in 2025. Historically, it was widely believed that the supply-side would eventually drive peak coal due to the depletion of coal reserves. However, since the increasing global efforts to limit climate change, peak coal has been driven by demand. This is due in large part to the rapid expansion of natural gas and renewable energy. As of 2024 over 40% of all energy sector carbon dioxide emissions are from coal, and many countries have pledged to phase-out coal.
The peak of coal's share in the global energy mix was in 2008, when coal accounted for 30% of global energy production. Coal consumption is declining in the United States and Europe, as well as developed economies in Asia. However production increased in India, Indonesia and China, which offset the falls in other regions. Global coal consumption reached an all time high in 2023 at 8.5 billion tons, but is expected to reach a new record of 8.77 billion tons in 2024.
In 2024 the International Energy Agency said: “After having grown by more than 1.2 billion tonnes since 2020, global coal demand is set to plateau in the next three years, reaching around 8.87 billion tonnes by 2027. Given the slow progress of deploying carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies in the sector, carbon dioxide emissions from coal are not expected to decline in that period, based on today’s policy settings and market trends. While coal demand in advanced economies continues to shrink, this decline is expected to be offset by growth in a few emerging and developing economies, such as India, Indonesia and Viet Nam, where the additional energy demand associated with economic growth is set to be met with a variety of sources, including coal. Despite increasing renewable electricity generation, India is expected to see the largest increase in coal use in the coming years, driven by consumption from the power sector and industry. Still, as has been the case for 25 years, China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together, will continue to define global trends.”
Although reserves of coal remain abundant, consumption of coal has declined in many countries. In 2016, Scotland closed its last coal-fired power plant, accommodated by an increase in nuclear power generation (to 42.8% of 2016 output). Scottish renewable energy comprised 42.9% of 2016 output. The term "peak coal" is now used primarily to refer to a peak and subsequent decline in global and national coal consumption. In 2016 experts estimated that China, the world's largest coal consumer, reached peak coal in 2013, and that the world may have passed peak coal. However, in 2017, for the first time in four years, demand for coal rose.
As per Coal 2024 – IEA’s annual coal market report, global coal use has rebounded strongly after plummeting at the height of the pandemic. It is poised to rise to 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, a record. According to the report, demand is set to stay close to this level through 2027.
As of 2015, China accounted for 50.0 percent of world coal consumption. Chinese coal consumption fell in 2014 and 2015. The last previous decline in Chinese coal consumption had been in 1997 and 1998. While consumption in China and the United States declined in 2015, that of India continued to rise and, in 2015, India surpassed the United States and became the world's second-largest consumer of coal.
As of 2018, the top coal-extracting countries were China (46.0%), India (9.5%), US (8.6%), Indonesia (6.8%), Australia (6.1%)
China is the largest consumer and mines the most out of the countries that produce coal. In 2019 the IEA predicted that coal use would plateau in 2022, whereas UBS bank forecasts 2023. In 2020 China set a carbon neutral target date. In 2021, the government ordered all coal mines to operate at full capacity at all times, including holidays; approved new mines, and eliminated restrictions on coal imports.
Peak coal
Use of coal is expected to peak in 2025. Historically, it was widely believed that the supply-side would eventually drive peak coal due to the depletion of coal reserves. However, since the increasing global efforts to limit climate change, peak coal has been driven by demand. This is due in large part to the rapid expansion of natural gas and renewable energy. As of 2024 over 40% of all energy sector carbon dioxide emissions are from coal, and many countries have pledged to phase-out coal.
The peak of coal's share in the global energy mix was in 2008, when coal accounted for 30% of global energy production. Coal consumption is declining in the United States and Europe, as well as developed economies in Asia. However production increased in India, Indonesia and China, which offset the falls in other regions. Global coal consumption reached an all time high in 2023 at 8.5 billion tons, but is expected to reach a new record of 8.77 billion tons in 2024.
In 2024 the International Energy Agency said: “After having grown by more than 1.2 billion tonnes since 2020, global coal demand is set to plateau in the next three years, reaching around 8.87 billion tonnes by 2027. Given the slow progress of deploying carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies in the sector, carbon dioxide emissions from coal are not expected to decline in that period, based on today’s policy settings and market trends. While coal demand in advanced economies continues to shrink, this decline is expected to be offset by growth in a few emerging and developing economies, such as India, Indonesia and Viet Nam, where the additional energy demand associated with economic growth is set to be met with a variety of sources, including coal. Despite increasing renewable electricity generation, India is expected to see the largest increase in coal use in the coming years, driven by consumption from the power sector and industry. Still, as has been the case for 25 years, China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together, will continue to define global trends.”
Although reserves of coal remain abundant, consumption of coal has declined in many countries. In 2016, Scotland closed its last coal-fired power plant, accommodated by an increase in nuclear power generation (to 42.8% of 2016 output). Scottish renewable energy comprised 42.9% of 2016 output. The term "peak coal" is now used primarily to refer to a peak and subsequent decline in global and national coal consumption. In 2016 experts estimated that China, the world's largest coal consumer, reached peak coal in 2013, and that the world may have passed peak coal. However, in 2017, for the first time in four years, demand for coal rose.
As per Coal 2024 – IEA’s annual coal market report, global coal use has rebounded strongly after plummeting at the height of the pandemic. It is poised to rise to 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, a record. According to the report, demand is set to stay close to this level through 2027.
As of 2015, China accounted for 50.0 percent of world coal consumption. Chinese coal consumption fell in 2014 and 2015. The last previous decline in Chinese coal consumption had been in 1997 and 1998. While consumption in China and the United States declined in 2015, that of India continued to rise and, in 2015, India surpassed the United States and became the world's second-largest consumer of coal.
As of 2018, the top coal-extracting countries were China (46.0%), India (9.5%), US (8.6%), Indonesia (6.8%), Australia (6.1%)
China is the largest consumer and mines the most out of the countries that produce coal. In 2019 the IEA predicted that coal use would plateau in 2022, whereas UBS bank forecasts 2023. In 2020 China set a carbon neutral target date. In 2021, the government ordered all coal mines to operate at full capacity at all times, including holidays; approved new mines, and eliminated restrictions on coal imports.