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Market trend
A market trend is a perceived tendency of the financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as secular for long time-frames, primary for medium time-frames, and secondary for short time-frames. Traders attempt to identify market trends using technical analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches support and resistance levels, varying over time.
A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. This fact makes market timing inherently a game of educated guessing rather than a certainty. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend.
The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market trends, respectively, and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities. The terms come from London's Exchange Alley in the early 18th century, where traders who engaged in naked short selling were called "bear-skin jobbers" because they sold a bear's skin (the shares) before catching the bear. This was simplified to "bears," while traders who bought shares on credit were called "bulls." The latter term might have originated by analogy to bear-baiting and bull-baiting, two animal fighting sports of the time. Thomas Mortimer recorded both terms in his 1761 book Every Man His Own Broker. He remarked that bulls who bought in excess of present demand might be seen wandering among brokers' offices moaning for a buyer, while bears rushed about devouring any shares they could find to close their short positions. An unrelated folk etymology supposes that the terms refer to a bear clawing downward to attack and a bull bucking upward with its horns.
A secular market trend is a lasting long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets.
In a secular bull market, the prevailing trend is "bullish" or upward-moving. The United States stock market was described as being in a secular bull market from about 1983 to 2000 (or 2007), with brief upsets including Black Monday and the Stock market downturn of 2002, triggered by the crash of the dot-com bubble. Another example is the 2000s commodities boom.
In a secular bear market, the prevailing trend is "bearish" or downward-moving. An example of a secular bear market occurred in gold from January 1980 to June 1999, culminating with the Brown Bottom. During this period, the market price of gold fell from a high of $850/oz ($30/g) to a low of $253/oz ($9/g). The stock market was also described as being in a secular bear market from 1929 to 1949.
A primary trend has broad support throughout the entire market, across most sectors, and lasts for a year or more.
A bull market is a period of generally rising prices. The start of a bull market is marked by widespread pessimism. This point is when the "crowd" is the most "bearish". The feeling of despondency changes to hope, "optimism", and eventually euphoria as the bull runs its course. This often leads the economic cycle, for example, in a full recession, or earlier.
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Market trend AI simulator
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Market trend
A market trend is a perceived tendency of the financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as secular for long time-frames, primary for medium time-frames, and secondary for short time-frames. Traders attempt to identify market trends using technical analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches support and resistance levels, varying over time.
A future market trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. This fact makes market timing inherently a game of educated guessing rather than a certainty. Past trends are identified by drawing lines, known as trendlines, that connect price action making higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower lows and lower highs for a downtrend.
The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market trends, respectively, and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities. The terms come from London's Exchange Alley in the early 18th century, where traders who engaged in naked short selling were called "bear-skin jobbers" because they sold a bear's skin (the shares) before catching the bear. This was simplified to "bears," while traders who bought shares on credit were called "bulls." The latter term might have originated by analogy to bear-baiting and bull-baiting, two animal fighting sports of the time. Thomas Mortimer recorded both terms in his 1761 book Every Man His Own Broker. He remarked that bulls who bought in excess of present demand might be seen wandering among brokers' offices moaning for a buyer, while bears rushed about devouring any shares they could find to close their short positions. An unrelated folk etymology supposes that the terms refer to a bear clawing downward to attack and a bull bucking upward with its horns.
A secular market trend is a lasting long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets.
In a secular bull market, the prevailing trend is "bullish" or upward-moving. The United States stock market was described as being in a secular bull market from about 1983 to 2000 (or 2007), with brief upsets including Black Monday and the Stock market downturn of 2002, triggered by the crash of the dot-com bubble. Another example is the 2000s commodities boom.
In a secular bear market, the prevailing trend is "bearish" or downward-moving. An example of a secular bear market occurred in gold from January 1980 to June 1999, culminating with the Brown Bottom. During this period, the market price of gold fell from a high of $850/oz ($30/g) to a low of $253/oz ($9/g). The stock market was also described as being in a secular bear market from 1929 to 1949.
A primary trend has broad support throughout the entire market, across most sectors, and lasts for a year or more.
A bull market is a period of generally rising prices. The start of a bull market is marked by widespread pessimism. This point is when the "crowd" is the most "bearish". The feeling of despondency changes to hope, "optimism", and eventually euphoria as the bull runs its course. This often leads the economic cycle, for example, in a full recession, or earlier.