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Law of large numbers
In probability theory, the law of large numbers is a mathematical law that states that the average of the results obtained from a large number of independent random samples converges to the true value, if it exists. More formally, the law of large numbers states that given a sample of independent and identically distributed values, the sample mean converges to the true mean.
The law of large numbers is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. Importantly, the law applies (as the name indicates) only when a large number of observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the others (see the gambler's fallacy).
The law of large numbers only applies to the average of the results obtained from repeated trials and claims that this average converges to the expected value; it does not claim that the sum of n results gets close to the expected value times n as n increases.
Throughout its history, many mathematicians have refined this law. Today, the law of large numbers is used in many fields including statistics, probability theory, economics, and insurance.
For example, a single roll of a six-sided dice produces one of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, each with equal probability. Therefore, the expected value of the roll is:
According to the law of large numbers, if a large number of six-sided dice are rolled, the average of their values (sometimes called the sample mean) will approach 3.5, with the precision increasing as more dice are rolled.
It follows from the law of large numbers that the empirical probability of success in a series of Bernoulli trials will converge to the theoretical probability. For a Bernoulli random variable, the expected value is the theoretical probability of success, and the average of n such variables (assuming they are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)) is precisely the relative frequency.
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Law of large numbers
In probability theory, the law of large numbers is a mathematical law that states that the average of the results obtained from a large number of independent random samples converges to the true value, if it exists. More formally, the law of large numbers states that given a sample of independent and identically distributed values, the sample mean converges to the true mean.
The law of large numbers is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. Importantly, the law applies (as the name indicates) only when a large number of observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the others (see the gambler's fallacy).
The law of large numbers only applies to the average of the results obtained from repeated trials and claims that this average converges to the expected value; it does not claim that the sum of n results gets close to the expected value times n as n increases.
Throughout its history, many mathematicians have refined this law. Today, the law of large numbers is used in many fields including statistics, probability theory, economics, and insurance.
For example, a single roll of a six-sided dice produces one of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, each with equal probability. Therefore, the expected value of the roll is:
According to the law of large numbers, if a large number of six-sided dice are rolled, the average of their values (sometimes called the sample mean) will approach 3.5, with the precision increasing as more dice are rolled.
It follows from the law of large numbers that the empirical probability of success in a series of Bernoulli trials will converge to the theoretical probability. For a Bernoulli random variable, the expected value is the theoretical probability of success, and the average of n such variables (assuming they are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)) is precisely the relative frequency.