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2002–03 South Pacific cyclone season
The 2002–03 South Pacific cyclone season was the most active and longest tropical cyclone season since 1997–98, with ten tropical cyclones occurring within the South Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. The season started earlier than normal, with two systems developing before the official start of the season on November 1, 2002, while the final system dissipated on June 9, 2003, after the season had officially ended on April 30. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) in Nadi, Fiji and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres in Brisbane, Australia and Wellington, New Zealand. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), also monitored the basin and issued unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that occur within the basin, while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a ten-minute period, while the JTWC estimates sustained winds over a one-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS).
The season began with Tropical Depression 17F on July 3, several months prior to the official start of the season. In late December, the strongest cyclone of the season, Cyclone Zoe severely affected many islands in the South Pacific, particularly the island of Tikopia. Zoe remained the strongest cyclone recorded in the Southern Hemisphere until Winston surpassed. Shortly after, in mid-January, Cyclone Ami struck Fiji as a Category 3 cyclone, where it caused US$51.2 million in damage. Cyclone Erica caused considerable damage to New Caledonia as a Category 4 cyclone, causing numerous power outages. The final storm of the season, Cyclone Gina, formed well outside the bounds of the conventional tropical cyclone season, existing entirely in the month of June and causing some damage to Tikopia. As a result of tropical cyclones in the 2002–03 season, US$67.2 million in damages was caused, along with 20 fatalities.
During November 2002, New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicted that there would be an eastwards shift in activity during the season, with more tropical cyclones than normal expected to the east of the date line, due to well established weak to moderate El Niño conditions. As a result, the island nations of Wallis and Futuna, Niue, Samoa, Tokelau, and the Southern Cook Islands were predicted to experience a higher than average number of tropical cyclones. The Solomon Islands, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tonga, French Polynesia, New Zealand and the Northern Cook Islands were predicted to experience an average number of tropical cyclones, while Southern Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and New Caledonia were predicted to experience a reduced number of tropical cyclones. In January 2003, NIWA issued an updated outlook, listing the Northern Cook Islands and French Polynesia as areas predicted to experience an above average number of tropical cyclones. In contrast, Vanuatu was predicted to experience below average cyclone activity. The Solomon Islands and Tonga were now predicted to experience a reduced number of tropical cyclones, with all other countries expected to face the same risk as the November outlook.
After three seasons of below average cyclone activity, the 2002–03 season was slightly above average, featuring ten cyclones and seven severe tropical cyclones. One of the cyclones, Cyclone Erica, originated from the Australian region but later moved into the South Pacific, where it impacted New Caledonia. Throughout the season, a moderately warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generated a shift of cyclone activity away from Australia and towards the open waters of the southern Pacific. As a result, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) between November 2002 and June 2003 was negative, averaging -7.2. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific were above average; for most of the tropical regions, SSTs were above 29 °C (84 °F). At various times, Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) pulses increased convective activity and thus cyclone development in the basin. Five pulses of the MJO and Equatorial Rossby waves (ER) were responsible for most of the cyclone activity during the season. Cyclone Zoe, the strongest cyclone of the season, was the only cyclone with no connection to any identified MJO or ER wave. By April, an easterly trade wind anomaly took place, signifying the end of the El Niño pattern that had persisted for much of the year.
Over the course of the season, cyclones were active for a total of 40 days, and severe tropical cyclones were active for a total of 19 days, both above average. A total of five tropical disturbances formed during 2002, of which two were cyclones. The first disturbance of the season, Tropical Depression 17F, along with another depression, 01F, formed well before the start of the cyclone season on July 3 and October 21 respectively. Cyclone Yolande was the first cyclone of the season, forming on November 29, but did not impact any land masses. In December, two disturbances formed, Tropical Depression 03F and Cyclone Zoe. The latter was the season's strongest cyclone and the strongest cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, affecting areas of the Solomon Islands.
In the first half of 2003, thirteen disturbances formed, of which eight developed into tropical cyclones; six intensified further and became severe tropical cyclones. January 2003 featured four disturbances and three cyclones. Cyclones Ami and Beni were both severe tropical cyclones, with the first extensively impacting Fiji. The month of February was less active compared to January; only two disturbances formed, Cyclone Dovi and Tropical Disturbance 10F, although Dovi would become a Category 5 cyclone on the Australian cyclone scale. March was slightly more active than February; the month featured three tropical depressions and two severe tropical cyclones, Cyclone Erica and Cyclone Eseta, although Erica originally formed west of 160°E. After an easterly wind anomaly arose in April, cyclone activity was suppressed during the month, totalling three tropical disturbances and one cyclone. In June, Cyclone Gina formed as a result of a strong ER wave and later became a severe tropical cyclone, well after the end of the season. Its dissipation on June 9 marked the end of the cyclone season.
Cyclone Yolande developed on November 29 from a broad area of thunderstorms embedded within a monsoonal trough, originating from a westerly wind burst associated with El Niño conditions; the same area of disturbed weather would later generate Typhoon Pongsona on December 2. At the time, the tropical depression was moving towards the southeast, but strong wind shear displaced the cyclone's strongest winds and convection northeast of its circulation center. Convective activity fluctuated under strong diurnal temperature variation. After moving into an area of less wind shear, the system was able to organize and develop good outflow currents. This was reflected with a slight drop in minimum barometric pressure down to 995 millibars (29.4 inHg). As a result, at 2255 UTC on December 4, the depression attained cyclone status and was given the name Yolande, east of Tonga. After being named, Cyclone Yolande began to accelerate into an area of strong wind shear, and convection became increasingly displaced from the center of circulation. By 1200 UTC on December 5, the convection was already sheared 160 km (99 mi) from the northwest of the circulation center, and as such the cyclone was downgraded to depression status. By this time, Yolande had completed a transition into an extratropical cyclone, after interacting with a baroclinic zone to the southwest. Yolande's extratropical remnants continued to track towards the southeast before dissipating entirely on December 11, 2,700 km (1,700 mi) to the southeast of Papeete, French Polynesia. As a result of remaining at sea, Yolande only caused minimal damage.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zoe was the second-most intense tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere in recorded history, severely affecting areas of the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Cyclone Zoe developed from the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) on January 23, east of Tuvalu. Initially developing slowly as a tropical depression, the predecessor to Zoe moved toward the west-southwest under the influence of a high-pressure area. However, the storm entered an area of very favorable cyclone conditions. After reaching cyclone strength on December 25, rapid intensification ensued. By the next day, Zoe had already strengthened to a severe tropical cyclone. On December 27, Zoe attained wind speeds equivalent to Category 5 status on both the Australian and Saffir–Simpson hurricane scales. An upper-level trough of low pressure forced Zoe towards the southwest, moving into the vicinity of the Solomon Islands. The next day, Zoe intensified to a record low barometric pressure of 890 millibars (26 inHg), with winds of 290 km/h (180 mph). However, conditions would deteriorate, and the cyclone would consequently weaken. By January 1, the storm had already degenerated into an extratropical cyclone, and its remnants dissipated just three days later.
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2002–03 South Pacific cyclone season AI simulator
(@2002–03 South Pacific cyclone season_simulator)
2002–03 South Pacific cyclone season
The 2002–03 South Pacific cyclone season was the most active and longest tropical cyclone season since 1997–98, with ten tropical cyclones occurring within the South Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. The season started earlier than normal, with two systems developing before the official start of the season on November 1, 2002, while the final system dissipated on June 9, 2003, after the season had officially ended on April 30. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) in Nadi, Fiji and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres in Brisbane, Australia and Wellington, New Zealand. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), also monitored the basin and issued unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that occur within the basin, while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a ten-minute period, while the JTWC estimates sustained winds over a one-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS).
The season began with Tropical Depression 17F on July 3, several months prior to the official start of the season. In late December, the strongest cyclone of the season, Cyclone Zoe severely affected many islands in the South Pacific, particularly the island of Tikopia. Zoe remained the strongest cyclone recorded in the Southern Hemisphere until Winston surpassed. Shortly after, in mid-January, Cyclone Ami struck Fiji as a Category 3 cyclone, where it caused US$51.2 million in damage. Cyclone Erica caused considerable damage to New Caledonia as a Category 4 cyclone, causing numerous power outages. The final storm of the season, Cyclone Gina, formed well outside the bounds of the conventional tropical cyclone season, existing entirely in the month of June and causing some damage to Tikopia. As a result of tropical cyclones in the 2002–03 season, US$67.2 million in damages was caused, along with 20 fatalities.
During November 2002, New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicted that there would be an eastwards shift in activity during the season, with more tropical cyclones than normal expected to the east of the date line, due to well established weak to moderate El Niño conditions. As a result, the island nations of Wallis and Futuna, Niue, Samoa, Tokelau, and the Southern Cook Islands were predicted to experience a higher than average number of tropical cyclones. The Solomon Islands, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tonga, French Polynesia, New Zealand and the Northern Cook Islands were predicted to experience an average number of tropical cyclones, while Southern Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and New Caledonia were predicted to experience a reduced number of tropical cyclones. In January 2003, NIWA issued an updated outlook, listing the Northern Cook Islands and French Polynesia as areas predicted to experience an above average number of tropical cyclones. In contrast, Vanuatu was predicted to experience below average cyclone activity. The Solomon Islands and Tonga were now predicted to experience a reduced number of tropical cyclones, with all other countries expected to face the same risk as the November outlook.
After three seasons of below average cyclone activity, the 2002–03 season was slightly above average, featuring ten cyclones and seven severe tropical cyclones. One of the cyclones, Cyclone Erica, originated from the Australian region but later moved into the South Pacific, where it impacted New Caledonia. Throughout the season, a moderately warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generated a shift of cyclone activity away from Australia and towards the open waters of the southern Pacific. As a result, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) between November 2002 and June 2003 was negative, averaging -7.2. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific were above average; for most of the tropical regions, SSTs were above 29 °C (84 °F). At various times, Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) pulses increased convective activity and thus cyclone development in the basin. Five pulses of the MJO and Equatorial Rossby waves (ER) were responsible for most of the cyclone activity during the season. Cyclone Zoe, the strongest cyclone of the season, was the only cyclone with no connection to any identified MJO or ER wave. By April, an easterly trade wind anomaly took place, signifying the end of the El Niño pattern that had persisted for much of the year.
Over the course of the season, cyclones were active for a total of 40 days, and severe tropical cyclones were active for a total of 19 days, both above average. A total of five tropical disturbances formed during 2002, of which two were cyclones. The first disturbance of the season, Tropical Depression 17F, along with another depression, 01F, formed well before the start of the cyclone season on July 3 and October 21 respectively. Cyclone Yolande was the first cyclone of the season, forming on November 29, but did not impact any land masses. In December, two disturbances formed, Tropical Depression 03F and Cyclone Zoe. The latter was the season's strongest cyclone and the strongest cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, affecting areas of the Solomon Islands.
In the first half of 2003, thirteen disturbances formed, of which eight developed into tropical cyclones; six intensified further and became severe tropical cyclones. January 2003 featured four disturbances and three cyclones. Cyclones Ami and Beni were both severe tropical cyclones, with the first extensively impacting Fiji. The month of February was less active compared to January; only two disturbances formed, Cyclone Dovi and Tropical Disturbance 10F, although Dovi would become a Category 5 cyclone on the Australian cyclone scale. March was slightly more active than February; the month featured three tropical depressions and two severe tropical cyclones, Cyclone Erica and Cyclone Eseta, although Erica originally formed west of 160°E. After an easterly wind anomaly arose in April, cyclone activity was suppressed during the month, totalling three tropical disturbances and one cyclone. In June, Cyclone Gina formed as a result of a strong ER wave and later became a severe tropical cyclone, well after the end of the season. Its dissipation on June 9 marked the end of the cyclone season.
Cyclone Yolande developed on November 29 from a broad area of thunderstorms embedded within a monsoonal trough, originating from a westerly wind burst associated with El Niño conditions; the same area of disturbed weather would later generate Typhoon Pongsona on December 2. At the time, the tropical depression was moving towards the southeast, but strong wind shear displaced the cyclone's strongest winds and convection northeast of its circulation center. Convective activity fluctuated under strong diurnal temperature variation. After moving into an area of less wind shear, the system was able to organize and develop good outflow currents. This was reflected with a slight drop in minimum barometric pressure down to 995 millibars (29.4 inHg). As a result, at 2255 UTC on December 4, the depression attained cyclone status and was given the name Yolande, east of Tonga. After being named, Cyclone Yolande began to accelerate into an area of strong wind shear, and convection became increasingly displaced from the center of circulation. By 1200 UTC on December 5, the convection was already sheared 160 km (99 mi) from the northwest of the circulation center, and as such the cyclone was downgraded to depression status. By this time, Yolande had completed a transition into an extratropical cyclone, after interacting with a baroclinic zone to the southwest. Yolande's extratropical remnants continued to track towards the southeast before dissipating entirely on December 11, 2,700 km (1,700 mi) to the southeast of Papeete, French Polynesia. As a result of remaining at sea, Yolande only caused minimal damage.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zoe was the second-most intense tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere in recorded history, severely affecting areas of the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Cyclone Zoe developed from the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) on January 23, east of Tuvalu. Initially developing slowly as a tropical depression, the predecessor to Zoe moved toward the west-southwest under the influence of a high-pressure area. However, the storm entered an area of very favorable cyclone conditions. After reaching cyclone strength on December 25, rapid intensification ensued. By the next day, Zoe had already strengthened to a severe tropical cyclone. On December 27, Zoe attained wind speeds equivalent to Category 5 status on both the Australian and Saffir–Simpson hurricane scales. An upper-level trough of low pressure forced Zoe towards the southwest, moving into the vicinity of the Solomon Islands. The next day, Zoe intensified to a record low barometric pressure of 890 millibars (26 inHg), with winds of 290 km/h (180 mph). However, conditions would deteriorate, and the cyclone would consequently weaken. By January 1, the storm had already degenerated into an extratropical cyclone, and its remnants dissipated just three days later.