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Hub AI
Fixed-odds betting AI simulator
(@Fixed-odds betting_simulator)
Hub AI
Fixed-odds betting AI simulator
(@Fixed-odds betting_simulator)
Fixed-odds betting
Fixed-odds betting is a form of gambling where individuals place bets on the outcome of an event, such as sports matches or horse races, at predetermined odds. In fixed-odds betting, the odds are fixed and determined at the time of placing the bet. These odds reflect the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring. If the bettor's prediction is correct, they receive a payout based on the fixed odds. This means that the potential winnings are known at the time of placing the bet, regardless of any changes in the odds leading up to the event.
Fixed-odds gambling involves placing bets on events with predetermined odds. Bookmakers aim to create an overround, where the sum of probabilities quoted for all possible outcomes exceeds 100%, ensuring profit. Imbalanced books can occur, leading to higher or lower payouts than expected. The advent of the internet and betting exchanges has led to opportunities for fixed-odds arbitrage actions and Dutch books.
When a bet has a positive expected value, it is said to be getting "the best of it." In contrast, "laying odds" refers to a bet in which more is risked than can be won, and rational bettors only engage in this type of bet if the chances of an adverse outcome are low enough. "Lay betting" is when a bettor bets against a specific outcome, effectively taking on the role of a bookmaker.
Odds can be expressed in various formats, including fractional, decimal, and moneyline. Fractional odds are used primarily in the United Kingdom and Ireland, while decimal odds are favored in Continental Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. Moneyline odds are used in the United States. Converting between these formats requires specific calculations depending on the type of odds used.
It is customary with fixed-odds gambling to know the odds at the time of the placement of the wager (the "live price"), but the category also includes wagers whose price is determined only when the race or game starts (the "starting prices"). It is ideal for bookmakers to price/mark up a book such that the net outcome will always be in their favour: the sum of the probabilities quoted for all possible outcomes will be in excess of 100%. The excess over 100% (or overround) represents profit to the bookmaker in the event of a balanced/even book. In the more usual case of an imbalanced book, the bookmaker may have to pay out more winnings than what is staked or may earn more than mathematically expected. An imbalanced book may arise since there is no way for a bookmaker to know the true probabilities for the outcome of competitions left to human effort or to predict the bets that will be attracted from others by fixed odds compiled on the basis personal view and knowledge.
With the advent of Internet and bet exchange betting, the possibility of fixed-odds arbitrage actions and Dutch books against bookmakers and exchanges has expanded significantly. Betting exchanges in particular act like a stock exchange, allowing the odds to be set in the course of trading between individual bettors, usually leading to quoted odds that are reasonably close to the "true odds".
In making a bet where the expected value is positive, one is said to be getting "the best of it". For example, if one were to bet $1 at 10 to 1 odds (one could win $10) on the outcome of a coin flip, one would be getting "the best of it" and should always make the bet (assuming a rational and risk-neutral attitude with linear utility curves and have no preferences implying loss aversion or the like). However, if someone offered odds of 10 to 1 that a card chosen at random from a regular 52 card deck would be the ace of spades, one would be getting "the worst of it" because the chance is only 1 in 52 that the ace will be chosen.
In an entry for L'Encyclopédie (the Enlightenment-era "French Encyclopedia"), Denis Diderot cites a similar example in which two players, Player A and Player B, wager over a game of dice that involves rolling two six-sided dice. Player A wins if the dice add up to 12, of which there is only one possible case. Player B wins if the dice fall in any other combination, of which there are 35 possibilities. It is mathematically disadvantageous to make a bet if one gets "the worst of it". Accordingly, for the bet to be "fair", the amount each player could potentially lose or gain from the wager should be adjusted, depending on the odds of their success.
Fixed-odds betting
Fixed-odds betting is a form of gambling where individuals place bets on the outcome of an event, such as sports matches or horse races, at predetermined odds. In fixed-odds betting, the odds are fixed and determined at the time of placing the bet. These odds reflect the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring. If the bettor's prediction is correct, they receive a payout based on the fixed odds. This means that the potential winnings are known at the time of placing the bet, regardless of any changes in the odds leading up to the event.
Fixed-odds gambling involves placing bets on events with predetermined odds. Bookmakers aim to create an overround, where the sum of probabilities quoted for all possible outcomes exceeds 100%, ensuring profit. Imbalanced books can occur, leading to higher or lower payouts than expected. The advent of the internet and betting exchanges has led to opportunities for fixed-odds arbitrage actions and Dutch books.
When a bet has a positive expected value, it is said to be getting "the best of it." In contrast, "laying odds" refers to a bet in which more is risked than can be won, and rational bettors only engage in this type of bet if the chances of an adverse outcome are low enough. "Lay betting" is when a bettor bets against a specific outcome, effectively taking on the role of a bookmaker.
Odds can be expressed in various formats, including fractional, decimal, and moneyline. Fractional odds are used primarily in the United Kingdom and Ireland, while decimal odds are favored in Continental Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. Moneyline odds are used in the United States. Converting between these formats requires specific calculations depending on the type of odds used.
It is customary with fixed-odds gambling to know the odds at the time of the placement of the wager (the "live price"), but the category also includes wagers whose price is determined only when the race or game starts (the "starting prices"). It is ideal for bookmakers to price/mark up a book such that the net outcome will always be in their favour: the sum of the probabilities quoted for all possible outcomes will be in excess of 100%. The excess over 100% (or overround) represents profit to the bookmaker in the event of a balanced/even book. In the more usual case of an imbalanced book, the bookmaker may have to pay out more winnings than what is staked or may earn more than mathematically expected. An imbalanced book may arise since there is no way for a bookmaker to know the true probabilities for the outcome of competitions left to human effort or to predict the bets that will be attracted from others by fixed odds compiled on the basis personal view and knowledge.
With the advent of Internet and bet exchange betting, the possibility of fixed-odds arbitrage actions and Dutch books against bookmakers and exchanges has expanded significantly. Betting exchanges in particular act like a stock exchange, allowing the odds to be set in the course of trading between individual bettors, usually leading to quoted odds that are reasonably close to the "true odds".
In making a bet where the expected value is positive, one is said to be getting "the best of it". For example, if one were to bet $1 at 10 to 1 odds (one could win $10) on the outcome of a coin flip, one would be getting "the best of it" and should always make the bet (assuming a rational and risk-neutral attitude with linear utility curves and have no preferences implying loss aversion or the like). However, if someone offered odds of 10 to 1 that a card chosen at random from a regular 52 card deck would be the ace of spades, one would be getting "the worst of it" because the chance is only 1 in 52 that the ace will be chosen.
In an entry for L'Encyclopédie (the Enlightenment-era "French Encyclopedia"), Denis Diderot cites a similar example in which two players, Player A and Player B, wager over a game of dice that involves rolling two six-sided dice. Player A wins if the dice add up to 12, of which there is only one possible case. Player B wins if the dice fall in any other combination, of which there are 35 possibilities. It is mathematically disadvantageous to make a bet if one gets "the worst of it". Accordingly, for the bet to be "fair", the amount each player could potentially lose or gain from the wager should be adjusted, depending on the odds of their success.