Moral hazard

In economics, a moral hazard is a situation where an economic actor has an incentive to increase its exposure to risk because it will not bear the full costs associated with that risk. For example, when a corporation is insured, it may take on higher risk knowing that its insurance will pay the associated costs. A moral hazard may occur where the actions of the risk-taking party change to the detriment of the cost-bearing party after a financial transaction has taken place.

Moral hazard can occur under a type of information asymmetry where the risk-taking party to a transaction knows more about its intentions than the party paying the consequences of the risk and has a tendency or incentive to take on too much risk from the perspective of the party with less information. One example is a principal–agent approach (also called agency theory), where one party, called an agent, acts on behalf of another party, called the principal. However, a principal–agent problem can occur when there is a conflict of interest between the agent and principal. If the agent has more information about their actions or intentions than the principal then the agent may have an incentive to act too riskily (from the viewpoint of the principal) if the interests of the agent and the principal are not aligned.

According to research by Dembe and Boden, the term dates back to the 17th century and was widely used by English insurance companies by the late 19th century. Early usage of the term carried negative connotations, implying fraud or immoral behavior (usually on the part of an insured party). Dembe and Boden point out, however, that prominent mathematicians who studied decision-making in the 18th century used "moral" to mean "subjective", which may cloud the true ethical significance in the term. The concept of moral hazard was the subject of renewed study by economists in the 1960s, beginning with economist Ken Arrow, and did not imply immoral behavior or fraud. Economists use this term to describe inefficiencies that can occur when risks are displaced or cannot be fully evaluated, rather than a description of the ethics or morals of the involved parties.

Rowell and Connelly offer a detailed description of the genesis of the term moral hazard, by identifying salient changes in economic thought, which are identified within the medieval theological and probability literature. Due to the different approaches taken by economics and philosophy in interpreting the concept of “moral hazard,” there are significant differences in their understanding of its underlying causes. In economics, “moral hazard” is often attributed to the malignant development of utilitarianism. In contrast, philosophy and ethics view “moral hazard” from a broader perspective that includes the moral behaviour of individuals and society as a whole. The root cause of “moral hazard” is due to the immoral behaviour of economic agents from a social perspective. Their paper also compares and contrasts the predominantly normative conception of moral hazard found within the insurance-industry literature with the largely positive interpretations found within the economic literature. Often what is described as "moral hazard[s]" in the insurance literature is upon closer reading, a description of the closely related concept, adverse selection.

In 1998, William J. McDonough, head of the New York Federal Reserve, helped the counterparties of Long-Term Capital Management avoid losses by taking over the firm. This move was criticized by former Fed Chair Paul Volcker and others as increasing moral hazard. Tyler Cowen concludes that "creditors came to believe that their loans to unsound financial institutions would be made good by the Fed – as long as the collapse of those institutions would threaten the global credit system." Fed Chair, Alan Greenspan, while conceding the risk of moral hazard, defended the policy to orderly unwind Long-Term Capital by saying the world economy is at stake. Greenspan had himself been accused of creating wider moral hazard in markets by using the Greenspan put.

Economist Paul Krugman described moral hazard as "any situation in which one person makes the decision about how much risk to take, while someone else bears the cost if things go badly." Financial bailouts of lending institutions by governments, central banks or other institutions can encourage risky lending in the future if those that take the risks come to believe that they will not have to carry the full burden of potential losses. Lending institutions need to take risks by making loans, and the riskiest loans usually have the potential for making the highest return.

Taxpayers, depositors and other creditors often have to shoulder at least part of the burden of risky financial decisions made by lending institutions.

Many have argued that certain types of mortgage securitization contribute to moral hazard. Mortgage securitization enables mortgage originators to pass on the risk that the mortgages they originate might default and not hold the mortgages on their balance sheets and assume the risk. In one kind of mortgage securitization, known as "agency securitizations," default risk is retained by the securitizing agency that buys the mortgages from originators. These agencies thus have an incentive to monitor originators and check loan quality. "Agency securitizations" refer to securitizations by either Ginnie Mae, a government agency, or by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both for-profit government-sponsored enterprises. They are similar to the "covered bonds" that are commonly used in Western Europe in that the securitizing agency retains default risk. Under both models, investors take on only interest-rate risk, not default risk.