Stochastic

Stochastic (/stəˈkæstɪk/; from Ancient Greek στόχος (stókhos) 'aim, guess') is the property of being well-described by a random probability distribution. Stochasticity and randomness are technically distinct concepts: the former refers to a modeling approach, while the latter describes phenomena; in everyday conversation these terms are often used interchangeably. In probability theory, the formal concept of a stochastic process is also referred to as a random process.

Stochasticity is used in many different fields, including image processing, signal processing, computer science, information theory, telecommunications, chemistry, ecology, neuroscience, physics, and cryptography. It is also used in finance (e.g., stochastic oscillator), due to seemingly random changes in the different markets within the financial sector and in medicine, linguistics, music, media, colour theory, botany, manufacturing and geomorphology.

The word stochastic in English was originally used as an adjective with the definition "pertaining to conjecturing", and stemming from a Greek word meaning "to aim at a mark, guess", and the Oxford English Dictionary gives the year 1662 as its earliest occurrence. In his work on probability Ars Conjectandi, originally published in Latin in 1713, Jakob Bernoulli used the phrase "Ars Conjectandi sive Stochastice", which has been translated to "the art of conjecturing or stochastics". This phrase was used, with reference to Bernoulli, by Ladislaus Bortkiewicz, who in 1917 wrote in German the word Stochastik with a sense meaning random. The term stochastic process first appeared in English in a 1934 paper by Joseph L. Doob. For the term and a specific mathematical definition, Doob cited another 1934 paper, where the term stochastischer Prozeß was used in German by Aleksandr Khinchin, though the German term had been used earlier in 1931 by Andrey Kolmogorov.

In the early 1930s, Aleksandr Khinchin gave the first mathematical definition of a stochastic process as a family of random variables indexed by the real line. Further fundamental work on probability theory and stochastic processes was done by Khinchin as well as other mathematicians such as Andrey Kolmogorov, Joseph Doob, William Feller, Maurice Fréchet, Paul Lévy, Wolfgang Doeblin, and Harald Cramér. Decades later Cramér referred to the 1930s as the "heroic period of mathematical probability theory".

In mathematics, the theory of stochastic processes is an important contribution to probability theory, and continues to be an active topic of research for both theory and applications.

The word stochastic is used to describe other terms and objects in mathematics. Examples include a stochastic matrix, which describes a stochastic process known as a Markov process, and stochastic calculus, which involves differential equations and integrals based on stochastic processes such as the Wiener process, also called the Brownian motion process.

One of the simplest continuous-time stochastic processes is Brownian motion. This was first observed by botanist Robert Brown while looking through a microscope at pollen grains in water.

The Monte Carlo method is a stochastic method popularized by physics researchers Stanisław Ulam, Enrico Fermi, John von Neumann, and Nicholas Metropolis. The use of randomness and the repetitive nature of the process are analogous to the activities conducted at a casino. Methods of simulation and statistical sampling generally did the opposite: using simulation to test a previously understood deterministic problem. Though examples of an "inverted" approach do exist historically, they were not considered a general method until the popularity of the Monte Carlo method spread.