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Bootstrapping (statistics)
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Bootstrapping (statistics)
Bootstrapping is a procedure for estimating the distribution of an estimator by resampling (often with replacement) one's data or a model estimated from the data. Bootstrapping assigns measures of accuracy (bias, variance, confidence intervals, prediction error, etc.) to sample estimates. This technique allows estimation of the sampling distribution of almost any statistic using random sampling methods.
Bootstrapping estimates the properties of an estimand (such as its variance) by measuring those properties when sampling from an approximating distribution. One standard choice for an approximating distribution is the empirical distribution function of the observed data. In the case where a set of observations can be assumed to be from an independent and identically distributed population, this can be implemented by constructing a number of resamples with replacement, of the observed data set (and of equal size to the observed data set). A key result in Efron's seminal paper that introduced the bootstrap is the favorable performance of bootstrap methods using sampling with replacement compared to prior methods like the jackknife that sample without replacement. However, since its introduction, numerous variants on the bootstrap have been proposed, including methods that sample without replacement or that create bootstrap samples larger or smaller than the original data.
The bootstrap may also be used for constructing hypothesis tests. It is often used as an alternative to statistical inference based on the assumption of a parametric model when that assumption is in doubt, or where parametric inference is impossible or requires complicated formulas for the calculation of standard errors.
The bootstrap was first described by Bradley Efron in "Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife" (1979), inspired by earlier work on the jackknife. Improved estimates of the variance were developed later. A Bayesian extension was developed in 1981. The bias-corrected and accelerated () bootstrap was developed by Efron in 1987, and the approximate bootstrap confidence interval (ABC, or approximate ) procedure in 1992.
The basic idea of bootstrapping is that inference about a population from sample data (sample → population) can be modeled by resampling the sample data and performing inference about a sample from resampled data (resampled → sample). As the population is unknown, the true error in a sample statistic against its population value is unknown. In bootstrap-resamples, the 'population' is in fact the sample, and this is known; hence the quality of inference of the 'true' sample from resampled data (resampled → sample) is measurable.
More formally, the bootstrap works by treating inference of the true probability distribution J, given the original data, as being analogous to an inference of the empirical distribution Ĵ, given the resampled data. The accuracy of inferences regarding Ĵ using the resampled data can be assessed because we know Ĵ. If Ĵ is a reasonable approximation to J, then the quality of inference on J can in turn be inferred.
As an example, assume we are interested in the average (or mean) height of people worldwide. We cannot measure all the people in the global population, so instead, we sample only a tiny part of it, and measure that. Assume the sample is of size N; that is, we measure the heights of N individuals. From that single sample, only one estimate of the mean can be obtained. In order to reason about the population, we need some sense of the variability of the mean that we have computed. The simplest bootstrap method involves taking the original data set of heights, and, using a computer, sampling from it to form a new sample (called a 'resample' or bootstrap sample) that is also of size N. The bootstrap sample is taken from the original by using sampling with replacement (e.g. we might 'resample' 5 times from [1,2,3,4,5] and get [2,5,4,4,1]), so, assuming N is sufficiently large, for all practical purposes there is virtually zero probability that it will be identical to the original "real" sample. This process is repeated a large number of times (typically 1,000 or 10,000 times), and for each of these bootstrap samples, we compute its mean (each of these is called a "bootstrap estimate"). We now can create a histogram of bootstrap means. This histogram provides an estimate of the shape of the distribution of the sample mean from which we can answer questions about how much the mean varies across samples. (The method here, described for the mean, can be applied to almost any other statistic or estimator.)
A great advantage of bootstrap is its simplicity. It is a straightforward way to derive estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals for complex estimators of the distribution, such as percentile points, proportions, Odds ratio, and correlation coefficients. However, despite its simplicity, bootstrapping can be applied to complex sampling designs (e.g. for population divided into s strata with ns observations per strata, one example of which is a dose-response experiment, where bootstrapping can be applied for each stratum). Bootstrap is also an appropriate way to control and check the stability of the results. Although for most problems it is impossible to know the true confidence interval, bootstrap is asymptotically more accurate than the standard intervals obtained using sample variance and assumptions of normality. Bootstrapping is also a convenient method that avoids the cost of repeating the experiment to get other groups of sample data.
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Bootstrapping (statistics)
Bootstrapping is a procedure for estimating the distribution of an estimator by resampling (often with replacement) one's data or a model estimated from the data. Bootstrapping assigns measures of accuracy (bias, variance, confidence intervals, prediction error, etc.) to sample estimates. This technique allows estimation of the sampling distribution of almost any statistic using random sampling methods.
Bootstrapping estimates the properties of an estimand (such as its variance) by measuring those properties when sampling from an approximating distribution. One standard choice for an approximating distribution is the empirical distribution function of the observed data. In the case where a set of observations can be assumed to be from an independent and identically distributed population, this can be implemented by constructing a number of resamples with replacement, of the observed data set (and of equal size to the observed data set). A key result in Efron's seminal paper that introduced the bootstrap is the favorable performance of bootstrap methods using sampling with replacement compared to prior methods like the jackknife that sample without replacement. However, since its introduction, numerous variants on the bootstrap have been proposed, including methods that sample without replacement or that create bootstrap samples larger or smaller than the original data.
The bootstrap may also be used for constructing hypothesis tests. It is often used as an alternative to statistical inference based on the assumption of a parametric model when that assumption is in doubt, or where parametric inference is impossible or requires complicated formulas for the calculation of standard errors.
The bootstrap was first described by Bradley Efron in "Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife" (1979), inspired by earlier work on the jackknife. Improved estimates of the variance were developed later. A Bayesian extension was developed in 1981. The bias-corrected and accelerated () bootstrap was developed by Efron in 1987, and the approximate bootstrap confidence interval (ABC, or approximate ) procedure in 1992.
The basic idea of bootstrapping is that inference about a population from sample data (sample → population) can be modeled by resampling the sample data and performing inference about a sample from resampled data (resampled → sample). As the population is unknown, the true error in a sample statistic against its population value is unknown. In bootstrap-resamples, the 'population' is in fact the sample, and this is known; hence the quality of inference of the 'true' sample from resampled data (resampled → sample) is measurable.
More formally, the bootstrap works by treating inference of the true probability distribution J, given the original data, as being analogous to an inference of the empirical distribution Ĵ, given the resampled data. The accuracy of inferences regarding Ĵ using the resampled data can be assessed because we know Ĵ. If Ĵ is a reasonable approximation to J, then the quality of inference on J can in turn be inferred.
As an example, assume we are interested in the average (or mean) height of people worldwide. We cannot measure all the people in the global population, so instead, we sample only a tiny part of it, and measure that. Assume the sample is of size N; that is, we measure the heights of N individuals. From that single sample, only one estimate of the mean can be obtained. In order to reason about the population, we need some sense of the variability of the mean that we have computed. The simplest bootstrap method involves taking the original data set of heights, and, using a computer, sampling from it to form a new sample (called a 'resample' or bootstrap sample) that is also of size N. The bootstrap sample is taken from the original by using sampling with replacement (e.g. we might 'resample' 5 times from [1,2,3,4,5] and get [2,5,4,4,1]), so, assuming N is sufficiently large, for all practical purposes there is virtually zero probability that it will be identical to the original "real" sample. This process is repeated a large number of times (typically 1,000 or 10,000 times), and for each of these bootstrap samples, we compute its mean (each of these is called a "bootstrap estimate"). We now can create a histogram of bootstrap means. This histogram provides an estimate of the shape of the distribution of the sample mean from which we can answer questions about how much the mean varies across samples. (The method here, described for the mean, can be applied to almost any other statistic or estimator.)
A great advantage of bootstrap is its simplicity. It is a straightforward way to derive estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals for complex estimators of the distribution, such as percentile points, proportions, Odds ratio, and correlation coefficients. However, despite its simplicity, bootstrapping can be applied to complex sampling designs (e.g. for population divided into s strata with ns observations per strata, one example of which is a dose-response experiment, where bootstrapping can be applied for each stratum). Bootstrap is also an appropriate way to control and check the stability of the results. Although for most problems it is impossible to know the true confidence interval, bootstrap is asymptotically more accurate than the standard intervals obtained using sample variance and assumptions of normality. Bootstrapping is also a convenient method that avoids the cost of repeating the experiment to get other groups of sample data.