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History of probability
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History of probability
Probability has a dual aspect: on the one hand the likelihood of hypotheses given the evidence for them, and on the other hand the behavior of stochastic processes such as the throwing of dice or coins. The study of the former is historically older in, for example, the law of evidence, while the mathematical treatment of dice began with the work of Cardano, Pascal, Fermat and Christiaan Huygens between the 16th and 17th century.
Probability deals with random experiments with a known distribution, Statistics deals with inference from the data about the unknown distribution.
Probable and probability, along with their cognates in other modern languages, derive from medieval learned Latin probabilis. This term, first used by Cicero, was generally applied to opinions to mean plausible or generally approved. The form probability is derived from the Old French probabilite (14 c.) and directly from the Latin probabilitatem (nominative probabilitas) "credibility, probability," which itself comes from probabilis (see probable). The mathematical sense of the term emerged in 1718.
During the 18th century, the term chance was also employed in the mathematical sense of "probability," with its theory often referred to as the "Doctrine of Chances." Chance comes from the Latin term, cadentia, meaning "a fall" or "a case."
The English adjective likely is of Germanic origin, most likely from Old Norse likligr (Old English had geliclic with the same sense), originally meaning "having the appearance of being strong or able" or "having the similar appearance or qualities."
By the mid-15th century, the term likely had also taken on the sense of probably. The derived noun likelihood had a meaning of "similarity" or "resemblance," but took on a meaning of "probability." The meaning "something likely to be true" is from the 1570s.
Ancient and medieval law of evidence developed a grading of degrees of proof, credibility, presumptions and half-proof to deal with the uncertainties of evidence in court.
In Renaissance times, betting was discussed in terms of odds such as "ten to one" and maritime insurance premiums were estimated based on intuitive risks, but there was no theory on how to calculate such odds or premiums.
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History of probability
Probability has a dual aspect: on the one hand the likelihood of hypotheses given the evidence for them, and on the other hand the behavior of stochastic processes such as the throwing of dice or coins. The study of the former is historically older in, for example, the law of evidence, while the mathematical treatment of dice began with the work of Cardano, Pascal, Fermat and Christiaan Huygens between the 16th and 17th century.
Probability deals with random experiments with a known distribution, Statistics deals with inference from the data about the unknown distribution.
Probable and probability, along with their cognates in other modern languages, derive from medieval learned Latin probabilis. This term, first used by Cicero, was generally applied to opinions to mean plausible or generally approved. The form probability is derived from the Old French probabilite (14 c.) and directly from the Latin probabilitatem (nominative probabilitas) "credibility, probability," which itself comes from probabilis (see probable). The mathematical sense of the term emerged in 1718.
During the 18th century, the term chance was also employed in the mathematical sense of "probability," with its theory often referred to as the "Doctrine of Chances." Chance comes from the Latin term, cadentia, meaning "a fall" or "a case."
The English adjective likely is of Germanic origin, most likely from Old Norse likligr (Old English had geliclic with the same sense), originally meaning "having the appearance of being strong or able" or "having the similar appearance or qualities."
By the mid-15th century, the term likely had also taken on the sense of probably. The derived noun likelihood had a meaning of "similarity" or "resemblance," but took on a meaning of "probability." The meaning "something likely to be true" is from the 1570s.
Ancient and medieval law of evidence developed a grading of degrees of proof, credibility, presumptions and half-proof to deal with the uncertainties of evidence in court.
In Renaissance times, betting was discussed in terms of odds such as "ten to one" and maritime insurance premiums were estimated based on intuitive risks, but there was no theory on how to calculate such odds or premiums.