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Photovoltaics
Photovoltaics
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The Solar Settlement, a sustainable housing community project in Freiburg, Germany
Charging station in France that provides energy for electric cars using solar energy
Solar panels on the International Space Station

Photovoltaics (PV) is the conversion of light into electricity using semiconducting materials that exhibit the photovoltaic effect, a phenomenon studied in physics, photochemistry, and electrochemistry. The photovoltaic effect is commercially used for electricity generation and as photosensors.

A photovoltaic system employs solar modules, each comprising a number of solar cells, which generate electrical power. PV installations may be ground-mounted, rooftop-mounted, wall-mounted or floating. The mount may be fixed or use a solar tracker to follow the sun across the sky.

Photovoltaic technology helps to mitigate climate change because it emits much less carbon dioxide than fossil fuels. Solar PV has specific advantages as an energy source: once installed, its operation does not generate any pollution or any greenhouse gas emissions; it shows scalability in respect of power needs and silicon has large availability in the Earth's crust, although other materials required in PV system manufacture such as silver may constrain further growth in the technology. Other major constraints identified include competition for land use.[1] The use of PV as a main source requires energy storage systems or global distribution by high-voltage direct current power lines causing additional costs, and also has a number of other specific disadvantages such as variable power generation which have to be balanced. Production and installation does cause some pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, though only a fraction of the emissions caused by fossil fuels.[2]

Photovoltaic systems have long been used in specialized applications as stand-alone installations and grid-connected PV systems have been in use since the 1990s.[3] Photovoltaic modules were first mass-produced in 2000, when the German government funded a one hundred thousand roof program.[4] Decreasing costs has allowed PV to grow as an energy source. This has been partially driven by massive Chinese government investment in developing solar production capacity since 2000, and achieving economies of scale. Improvements in manufacturing technology and efficiency have also led to decreasing costs.[5][6] Net metering and financial incentives, such as preferential feed-in tariffs for solar-generated electricity, have supported solar PV installations in many countries.[7] Panel prices dropped by a factor of 4 between 2004 and 2011. Module prices dropped by about 90% over the 2010s.

In 2022, worldwide installed PV capacity increased to more than 1 terawatt (TW) covering nearly two percent of global electricity demand.[8] After hydro and wind powers, PV is the third renewable energy source in terms of global capacity. In 2022, the International Energy Agency expected a growth by over 1 TW from 2022 to 2027.[9] In some instances, PV has offered the cheapest source of electrical power in regions with a high solar potential, with a bid for pricing as low as 0.015 US$/kWh in Qatar in 2023.[10] In 2023, the International Energy Agency stated in its World Energy Outlook that '[f]or projects with low cost financing that tap high quality resources, solar PV is now the cheapest source of electricity in history.[11]

Etymology

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The term "photovoltaic" comes from the Greek φῶς (phōs) meaning "light", and from "volt", the unit of electromotive force, the volt, which in turn comes from the last name of the Italian physicist Alessandro Volta, inventor of the battery (electrochemical cell). The term "photovoltaic" has been in use in English since 1849.[12]

History

[edit]

In 1989, the German Research Ministry initiated the first ever program to finance PV roofs (2200 roofs). A program led by Walter Sandtner in Bonn, Germany.[13]

In 1994, Japan followed in their footsteps and conducted a similar program with 539 residential PV systems installed.[14] Since, many countries have continued to produce and finance PV systems in an exponential speed.

Solar cells

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Solar cells generate electricity directly from sunlight.
Photovoltaic power potential map
Photovoltaic power potential map estimates, how many kWh of electricity can be produced from a 1 kWp free-standing c-Si modules, optimally inclined towards the Equator. The resulting long-term average is calculated based on weather data of at least 10 recent years.

Photovoltaics are best known as a method for generating electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the photovoltaic effect.[15][16]

Solar cells produce direct current electricity from sunlight which can be used to power equipment or to recharge batteries. The first practical application of photovoltaics was to power orbiting satellites and other spacecraft, but today the majority of photovoltaic modules are used for grid-connected systems for power generation. In this case an inverter is required to convert the DC to AC. There is also a smaller market for stand alone systems for remote dwellings, boats, recreational vehicles, electric cars, roadside emergency telephones, remote sensing, and cathodic protection of pipelines.

Photovoltaic power generation employs solar modules composed of a number of solar cells containing a semiconductor material.[17] Copper solar cables connect modules (module cable), arrays (array cable), and sub-fields. Because of the growing demand for renewable energy sources, the manufacturing of solar cells and photovoltaic arrays has advanced considerably in recent years.[18][19][20]

Cells require protection from the environment[21] and are usually packaged tightly in solar modules.

Photovoltaic module power is measured under standard test conditions (STC) in "Wp" (watts peak).[22] The actual power output at a particular place may be less than or greater than this rated value, depending on geographical location, time of day, weather conditions, and other factors.[23] Solar photovoltaic array capacity factors are typically under 25% when not coupled with storage, which is lower than many other industrial sources of electricity.[24]

Solar cell efficiencies

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Reported timeline of research solar cell energy conversion efficiencies since 1976 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Solar-cell efficiency is the portion of energy in the form of sunlight that can be converted via photovoltaics into electricity by the solar cell.

The efficiency of the solar cells used in a photovoltaic system, in combination with latitude and climate, determines the annual energy output of the system. For example, a solar panel with 20% efficiency and an area of 1 m2 produces 200 kWh/yr at Standard Test Conditions if exposed to the Standard Test Condition solar irradiance value of 1000 W/m2 for 2.74 hours a day. Usually solar panels are exposed to sunlight for longer than this in a given day, but the solar irradiance is less than 1000 W/m2 for most of the day. A solar panel can produce more when the Sun is high in Earth's sky and produces less in cloudy conditions, or when the Sun is low in the sky. The Sun is lower in the sky in the winter.

Two location dependent factors that affect solar PV yield are the dispersion and intensity of solar radiation. These two variables can vary greatly between each country.[25] The global regions that have high radiation levels throughout the year are the Middle East, Northern Chile, Australia, China, and Southwestern USA.[25][26] In a high-yield solar area like central Colorado, which receives annual insolation of 2000 kWh/m2/year,[27] a panel can be expected to produce 400 kWh of energy per year. However, in Michigan, which receives only 1400 kWh/m2/year,[27] annual energy yield drops to 280 kWh for the same panel. At more northerly European latitudes, yields are significantly lower: 175 kWh annual energy yield in southern England under the same conditions.[28]

Schematic of charge collection by solar cells. Light transmits through transparent conducting electrode creating electron hole pairs, which are collected by both the electrodes. The absorption and collection efficiencies of a solar cell depend on the design of transparent conductors and active layer thickness.[29]

Several factors affect a cell's conversion efficiency, including its reflectance, thermodynamic efficiency, charge carrier separation efficiency, charge carrier collection efficiency and conduction efficiency values.[30][29] Because these parameters can be difficult to measure directly, other parameters are measured instead, including quantum efficiency, open-circuit voltage (VOC) ratio, and § Fill factor. Reflectance losses are accounted for by the quantum efficiency value, as they affect external quantum efficiency. Recombination losses are accounted for by the quantum efficiency, VOC ratio, and fill factor values. Resistive losses are predominantly accounted for by the fill factor value, but also contribute to the quantum efficiency and VOC ratio values.

As of 2024, the world record for solar cell efficiency is 47.6%, set in May 2022 by Fraunhofer ISE, with a III-V four-junction concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) cell.[31][32] This beat the previous record of 47.1%, set in 2019 by multi-junction concentrator solar cells developed at National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, Colorado, USA,[33] which was set in lab conditions, under extremely concentrated light. The record in real-world conditions is held by NREL, who developed triple junction cells with a tested efficiency of 39.5%.[34][35]

Performance and degradation

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This chart illustrates the effect of clouds on solar energy production.

Module performance is generally rated under standard test conditions (STC): irradiance of 1,000 W/m2, solar spectrum of AM 1.5 and module temperature at 25 °C.[36] The actual voltage and current output of the module changes as lighting, temperature and load conditions change, so there is never one specific voltage at which the module operates. Performance varies depending on geographic location, time of day, the day of the year, amount of solar irradiance, direction and tilt of modules, cloud cover, shading, soiling, state of charge, and temperature. Performance of a module or panel can be measured at different time intervals with a DC clamp meter or shunt and logged, graphed, or charted with a chart recorder or data logger.

For optimum performance, a solar panel needs to be made of similar modules oriented in the same direction perpendicular to direct sunlight. Bypass diodes are used to circumvent broken or shaded panels and optimize output. These bypass diodes are usually placed along groups of solar cells to create a continuous flow.[37]

Electrical characteristics include nominal power (PMAX, measured in W), open-circuit voltage (VOC), short-circuit current (ISC, measured in amperes), maximum power voltage (VMPP), maximum power current (IMPP), peak power (watt-peak, Wp), and module efficiency (%).

Open-circuit voltage or VOC is the maximum voltage the module can produce when not connected to an electrical circuit or system.[38] VOC can be measured with a voltmeter directly on an illuminated module's terminals or on its disconnected cable.

The peak power rating, Wp, is the maximum output under standard test conditions (not the maximum possible output). Typical modules, which could measure approximately 1 by 2 metres (3 ft × 7 ft), will be rated from as low as 75 W to as high as 600 W, depending on their efficiency. At the time of testing, the test modules are binned according to their test results, and a typical manufacturer might rate their modules in 5 W increments, and either rate them at +/- 3%, +/-5%, +3/-0% or +5/-0%.[39][40][41]

Influence of temperature

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The performance of a photovoltaic (PV) module depends on the environmental conditions, mainly on the global incident irradiance G in the plane of the module. However, the temperature T of the p–n junction also influences the main electrical parameters: the short circuit current ISC, the open circuit voltage VOC and the maximum power Pmax. In general, it is known that VOC shows a significant inverse correlation with T, while for ISC this correlation is direct, but weaker, so that this increase does not compensate for the decrease in VOC. As a consequence, Pmax decreases when T increases. This correlation between the power output of a solar cell and the working temperature of its junction depends on the semiconductor material, and is due to the influence of T on the concentration, lifetime, and mobility of the intrinsic carriers, i.e., electrons and gaps. inside the photovoltaic cell.

Temperature sensitivity is usually described by temperature coefficients, each of which expresses the derivative of the parameter to which it refers with respect to the junction temperature. The values of these parameters, which can be found in any data sheet of the photovoltaic module, are the following:

  • β: VOC variation coefficient with respect to T, given by ∂VOC/∂T.
  • α: Coefficient of variation of ISC with respect to T, given by ∂ISC/∂T.
  • δ: Coefficient of variation of Pmax with respect to T, given by ∂Pmax/∂T.

Techniques for estimating these coefficients from experimental data can be found in the literature.[42]

Degradation

[edit]

The ability of solar modules to withstand damage by rain, hail, heavy snow load, and cycles of heat and cold varies by manufacturer, although most solar panels on the U.S. market are UL listed, meaning they have gone through testing to withstand hail.[43]

Potential-induced degradation (also called PID) is a potential-induced performance degradation in crystalline photovoltaic modules, caused by so-called stray currents.[44] This effect may cause power loss of up to 30%.[45]

The largest challenge for photovoltaic technology is the purchase price per watt of electricity produced. Advancements in photovoltaic technologies have brought about the process of "doping" the silicon substrate to lower the activation energy thereby making the panel more efficient in converting photons to retrievable electrons.[46]

Chemicals such as boron (p-type) are applied into the semiconductor crystal in order to create donor and acceptor energy levels substantially closer to the valence and conductor bands.[47] In doing so, the addition of boron impurity allows the activation energy to decrease twenty-fold from 1.12 eV to 0.05 eV. Since the potential difference (EB) is so low, the boron is able to thermally ionize at room temperatures. This allows for free energy carriers in the conduction and valence bands thereby allowing greater conversion of photons to electrons.

The power output of a photovoltaic (PV) device decreases over time. This decrease is due to its exposure to solar radiation as well as other external conditions. The degradation index, which is defined as the annual percentage of output power loss, is a key factor in determining the long-term production of a photovoltaic plant. To estimate this degradation, the percentage of decrease associated with each of the electrical parameters. The individual degradation of a photovoltaic module can significantly influence the performance of a complete string. Furthermore, not all modules in the same installation decrease their performance at exactly the same rate. Given a set of modules exposed to long-term outdoor conditions, the individual degradation of the main electrical parameters and the increase in their dispersion must be considered. As each module tends to degrade differently, the behavior of the modules will be increasingly different over time, negatively affecting the overall performance of the plant.

There are several studies dealing with the power degradation analysis of modules based on different photovoltaic technologies available in the literature. According to a recent study,[48] the degradation of crystalline silicon modules is very regular, oscillating between 0.8% and 1.0% per year.

On the other hand, if we analyze the performance of thin-film photovoltaic modules, an initial period of strong degradation is observed (which can last several months and up to two years), followed by a later stage in which the degradation stabilizes, being then comparable to that of crystalline silicon.[49] Strong seasonal variations are also observed in such thin-film technologies because the influence of the solar spectrum is much greater. For example, for modules of amorphous silicon, micromorphic silicon or cadmium telluride, we are talking about annual degradation rates for the first years of between 3% and 4%.[50] However, other technologies, such as CIGS, show much lower degradation rates, even in those early years.

Manufacturing of PV systems

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Overall the manufacturing process of creating solar photovoltaics is simple in that it does not require the culmination of many complex or moving parts. Because of the solid-state nature of PV systems, they often have relatively long lifetimes, anywhere from 10 to 30 years. To increase the electrical output of a PV system, the manufacturer must simply add more photovoltaic components. Because of this, economies of scale are important for manufacturers as costs decrease with increasing output.[51]

While there are many types of PV systems known to be effective, crystalline silicon PV accounted for around 90% of the worldwide production of PV in 2013. Manufacturing silicon PV systems has several steps. First, polysilicon is processed from mined quartz until it is very pure (semi-conductor grade). This is melted down when small amounts of boron, a group III element, are added to make a p-type semiconductor rich in electron holes. Typically using a seed crystal, an ingot of this solution is grown from the liquid polycrystalline. The ingot may also be cast in a mold. Wafers of this semiconductor material are cut from the bulk material with wire saws, and then go through surface etching before being cleaned. Next, the wafers are placed into a phosphorus vapor deposition furnace which lays a very thin layer of phosphorus, a group V element, which creates an n-type semiconducting surface. To reduce energy losses, an anti-reflective coating is added to the surface, along with electrical contacts. After finishing the cell, cells are connected via electrical circuit according to the specific application and prepared for shipping and installation.[52]

Environmental costs of manufacture

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Solar photovoltaic power is not entirely "clean energy": production produces greenhouse gas emissions, materials used to build the cells are potentially unsustainable and will run out eventually,[clarification needed][citation needed] the technology uses toxic substances which cause pollution,[citation needed] and there are no viable technologies for recycling solar waste.[53][obsolete source] Data required to investigate their impact are sometimes affected by a rather large amount of uncertainty. The values of human labor and water consumption, for example, are not precisely assessed due to the lack of systematic and accurate analyses in the scientific literature.[1] One difficulty in determining effects due to PV is to determine if the wastes are released to the air, water, or soil during the manufacturing phase.[54][obsolete source] Life-cycle assessments, which look at all different environment effects ranging from global warming potential, pollution, water depletion and others, are unavailable for PV. Instead, studies have tried to estimate the impact and potential impact of various types of PV, but these estimates are usually restricted to simply assessing energy costs of the manufacture and/or transport, because these are new technologies and the total environmental impact of their components and disposal methods are unknown, even for commercially available first generation solar cells, let alone experimental prototypes with no commercial viability.[55][better source needed]

Thus, estimates of the environmental impact of PV have focused on carbon dioxide equivalents per kWh or energy pay-back time (EPBT).[citation needed] The EPBT describes the timespan a PV system needs to operate in order to generate the same amount of energy that was used for its manufacture.[56] Another study includes transport energy costs in the EPBT.[57] The EPBT has also been defined completely differently as "the time needed to compensate for the total renewable- and non-renewable primary energy required during the life cycle of a PV system" in another study, which also included installation costs.[58] This energy amortization, given in years, is also referred to as break-even energy payback time.[59] The lower the EPBT, the lower the environmental cost of solar power.[citation needed] The EPBT depends vastly on the location where the PV system is installed (e.g. the amount of sunlight available and the efficiency of the electrical grid)[57] and on the type of system, namely the system's components.[56]

A 2015 review of EPBT estimates of first and second-generation PV suggested that there was greater variation in embedded energy than in efficiency of the cells implying that it was mainly the embedded energy that needs to reduce to have a greater reduction in EPBT.[60]

In general, the most important component of solar panels, which accounts for much of the energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, is the refining of the polysilicon.[56] As to how much percentage of the EPBT this silicon depends on the type of system. A fully autarkic system requires additional components ('Balance of System', the power inverters, storage, etc.) which significantly increase the energy cost of manufacture, but in a simple rooftop system, some 90% of the energy cost is from silicon, with the remainder coming from the inverters and module frame.[56]

The EPBT relates closely to the concepts of net energy gain (NEG) and energy returned on energy invested (EROI). They are both used in energy economics and refer to the difference between the energy expended to harvest an energy source and the amount of energy gained from that harvest. The NEG and EROI also take the operating lifetime of a PV system into account and a working life of 25 to 30 years is typically assumed. From these metrics, the Energy payback Time can be derived by calculation.[61][62]

EPBT improvements

[edit]

PV systems using crystalline silicon, by far the majority of the systems in practical use, have such a high EPBT because silicon is produced by the reduction of high-grade quartz sand in electric furnaces. This coke-fired smelting process occurs at high temperatures of more than 1000 °C and is very energy intensive, using about 11 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per produced kilogram of silicon.[63] The energy requirements of this process makes the energy cost per unit of silicon produced relatively inelastic, which means that the production process itself will not become more efficient in the future.

Nonetheless, the energy payback time has shortened significantly over the last years, as crystalline silicon cells became ever more efficient in converting sunlight, while the thickness of the wafer material was constantly reduced and therefore required less silicon for its manufacture. Within the last ten years, the amount of silicon used for solar cells declined from 16 to 6 grams per watt-peak. In the same period, the thickness of a c-Si wafer was reduced from 300 μm, or microns, to about 160–190 μm. The sawing techniques that slice crystalline silicon ingots into wafers have also improved by reducing the kerf loss and making it easier to recycle the silicon sawdust.[64][65]

Key parameters for material and energy efficiency
Parameter Mono-Si CdTe
Cell efficiency 16.5% 15.6%
Derate cell to module efficiency 8.5% 13.9%
Module efficiency 15.1% 13.4%
Wafer thickness / layer thickness 190 μm 4.0 μm
Kerf loss 190 μm
Silver per cell 9.6 g/m2
Glass thickness 4.0 mm 3.5 mm
Operational lifetime 30 years 30 years
Source: IEA-PVPS, Life Cycle Assessment, March 2015[66]

Effects from first generation PV

[edit]

Crystalline silicon modules are the most extensively studied PV type in terms of LCA since they are the most commonly used. Mono-crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems (mono-si) have an average efficiency of 14.0%.[67] The cells tend to follow a structure of front electrode, anti-reflection film, n-layer, p-layer, and back electrode, with the sun hitting the front electrode. EPBT ranges from 1.7 to 2.7 years.[68] The cradle to gate of CO2-eq/kWh ranges from 37.3 to 72.2 grams when installed in Southern Europe.[69]

Techniques to produce multi-crystalline silicon (multi-si) photovoltaic cells are simpler and cheaper than mono-si, however tend to make less efficient cells, an average of 13.2%.[67] EPBT ranges from 1.5 to 2.6 years.[68] The cradle to gate of CO2-eq/kWh ranges from 28.5 to 69 grams when installed in Southern Europe.[69]

Assuming that the following countries had a high-quality grid infrastructure as in Europe, in 2020 it was calculated it would take 1.28 years in Ottawa, Canada, for a rooftop photovoltaic system to produce the same amount of energy as required to manufacture the silicon in the modules in it (excluding the silver, glass, mounts and other components), 0.97 years in Catania, Italy, and 0.4 years in Jaipur, India. Outside of Europe, where net grid efficiencies are lower, it would take longer. This 'energy payback time' can be seen as the portion of time during the useful lifetime of the module in which the energy production is polluting. At best, this means that a 30-year old panel has produced clean energy for 97% of its lifetime, or that the silicon in the modules in a solar panel produce 97% less greenhouse gas emissions than a coal-fired plant for the same amount of energy (assuming and ignoring many things).[57] Some studies have looked beyond EPBT and GWP to other environmental effects. In one such study, conventional energy mix in Greece was compared to multi-si PV and found a 95% overall reduction in effects including carcinogens, eco-toxicity, acidification, eutrophication, and eleven others.[70]

Impact from second generation PV

[edit]

Cadmium telluride (CdTe) is one of the fastest-growing thin film based solar cells which are collectively known as second-generation devices. This new thin-film device also shares similar performance restrictions (Shockley-Queisser efficiency limit) as conventional Si devices but promises to lower the cost of each device by both reducing material and energy consumption during manufacturing. The global market share of CdTe was 4.7% in 2008.[54] This technology's highest power conversion efficiency is 21%.[71] The cell structure includes glass substrate (around 2 mm), transparent conductor layer, CdS buffer layer (50–150 nm), CdTe absorber and a metal contact layer.

CdTe PV systems require less energy input in their production than other commercial PV systems per unit electricity production. The average CO2-eq/kWh is around 18 grams (cradle to gate). CdTe has the fastest EPBT of all commercial PV technologies, which varies between 0.3 and 1.2 years.[72]

Effects from third generation PV

[edit]

Third-generation PVs are designed to combine the advantages of both the first and second generation devices and they do not have Shockley-Queisser limit, a theoretical limit for first and second generation PV cells. The thickness of a third generation device is less than 1 μm.[73]

Two new promising thin film technologies are copper zinc tin sulfide (Cu2ZnSnS4 or CZTS),[55] zinc phosphide (Zn3P2)[55] and single-walled carbon nano-tubes (SWCNT).[74] These thin films are currently only produced in the lab but may be commercialized in the future. The manufacturing of CZTS and (Zn3P2) processes are expected to be similar to those of current thin film technologies of CIGS and CdTe, respectively. While the absorber layer of SWCNT PV is expected to be synthesized with CoMoCAT method.[75] by Contrary to established thin films such as CIGS and CdTe, CZTS, Zn3P2, and SWCNT PVs are made from earth abundant, nontoxic materials and have the potential to produce more electricity annually than the current worldwide consumption.[76][77] While CZTS and Zn3P2 offer good promise for these reasons, the specific environmental implications of their commercial production are not yet known. Global warming potential of CZTS and Zn3P2 were found 38 and 30 grams CO2-eq/kWh while their corresponding EPBT were found 1.85 and 0.78 years, respectively.[55] Overall, CdTe and Zn3P2 have similar environmental effects but can slightly outperform CIGS and CZTS.[55] A study on environmental impacts of SWCNT PVs by Celik et al., including an existing 1% efficient device and a theoretical 28% efficient device, found that, compared to monocrystalline Si, the environmental impacts from 1% SWCNT was ~18 times higher due mainly to the short lifetime of three years.[74]

Economics

[edit]

Source: Apricus[78]

There have been major changes in the underlying costs, industry structure and market prices of solar photovoltaics technology, over the years, and gaining a coherent picture of the shifts occurring across the industry value chain globally is a challenge. This is due to: "the rapidity of cost and price changes, the complexity of the PV supply chain, which involves a large number of manufacturing processes, the balance of system (BOS) and installation costs associated with complete PV systems, the choice of different distribution channels, and differences between regional markets within which PV is being deployed". Further complexities result from the many different policy support initiatives that have been put in place to facilitate photovoltaics commercialisation in various countries.[3]

Renewable energy technologies have generally gotten cheaper since their invention.[79][80][81] Renewable energy systems have become cheaper to build than fossil fuel power plants across much of the world, thanks to advances in wind and solar energy technology, in particular.[82]

  • Implications for electricity bill management and energy investment

There is no silver bullet in electricity or energy demand and bill management, because customers (sites) have different specific situations, e.g. different comfort/convenience needs, different electricity tariffs, or different usage patterns. Electricity tariff may have a few elements, such as daily access and metering charge, energy charge (based on kWh, MWh) or peak demand charge (e.g. a price for the highest 30min energy consumption in a month). PV is a promising option for reducing energy charges when electricity prices are reasonably high and continuously increasing, such as in Australia and Germany. However, for sites with peak demand charge in place, PV may be less attractive if peak demands mostly occur in the late afternoon to early evening, for example in residential communities. Overall, energy investment is largely an economic decision and it is better to make investment decisions based on systematic evaluation of options in operational improvement, energy efficiency, onsite generation and energy storage.[83][84]

Hardware costs

[edit]
Swanson's law–stating that solar module prices have dropped about 20% for each doubling of installed capacity—defines the "learning rate" of solar photovoltaics.[85]

In 1977 crystalline silicon solar cell prices were at $76.67/W.[86]

Although wholesale module prices remained flat at around $3.50 to $4.00/W in the early 2000s due to high demand in Germany and Spain afforded by generous subsidies and shortage of polysilicon, demand crashed with the abrupt ending of Spanish subsidies after the market crash of 2008, and the price dropped rapidly to $2.00/W. Manufacturers were able to maintain a positive operating margin despite a 50% drop in income due to innovation and reductions in costs. In late 2011, factory-gate prices for crystalline-silicon photovoltaic modules suddenly dropped below the $1.00/W mark, taking many in the industry by surprise, and has caused a number of solar manufacturing companies to go bankrupt throughout the world. The $1.00/W cost is often regarded in the PV industry as marking the achievement of grid parity for PV, but most experts do not believe this price point is sustainable. Technological advancements, manufacturing process improvements, and industry re-structuring, may mean that further price reductions are possible.[3] The average retail price of solar cells as monitored by the Solarbuzz group fell from $3.50/watt to $2.43/watt over the course of 2011.[87] In 2013 wholesale prices had fallen to $0.74/W.[86] This has been cited as evidence supporting 'Swanson's law', an observation similar to the famous Moore's Law, which claims that solar cell prices fall 20% for every doubling of industry capacity.[86] The Fraunhofer Institute defines the 'learning rate' as the drop in prices as the cumulative production doubles, some 25% between 1980 and 2010. Although the prices for modules have dropped quickly, current inverter prices have dropped at a much lower rate, and in 2019 constitute over 61% of the cost per kWp, from a quarter in the early 2000s.[57]

Note that the prices mentioned above are for bare modules, another way of looking at module prices is to include installation costs. In the US, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association, the price of installed rooftop PV modules for homeowners fell from $9.00/W in 2006 to $5.46/W in 2011. Including the prices paid by industrial installations, the national installed price drops to $3.45/W. This is markedly higher than elsewhere in the world, in Germany homeowner rooftop installations averaged at $2.24/W. The cost differences are thought to be primarily based on the higher regulatory burden and lack of a national solar policy in the US.[88]

By the end of 2012 Chinese manufacturers had production costs of $0.50/W in the cheapest modules.[89] In some markets distributors of these modules can earn a considerable margin, buying at factory-gate price and selling at the highest price the market can support ('value-based pricing').[3] In California PV reached grid parity in 2011, which is usually defined as PV production costs at or below retail electricity prices (though often still above the power station prices for coal or gas-fired generation without their distribution and other costs).[90] Grid parity had been reached in 19 markets in 2014.[91][92]

By 2024, massive increases of production of solar panels in China had caused module prices to drop to as low as $0.11/W, an over 90 percent reduction from 2011 prices.[93]

Levelised cost of electricity

[edit]
AWM Munich ETFE Cushions-Photovoltaics

The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) is the cost per kWh based on the costs distributed over the project lifetime, and is thought to be a better metric for calculating viability than price per wattage. LCOEs vary dramatically depending on the location.[3] The LCOE can be considered the minimum price customers will have to pay the utility company in order for it to break even on the investment in a new power station.[5] Grid parity is roughly achieved when the LCOE falls to a similar price as conventional local grid prices, although in actuality the calculations are not directly comparable.[94] Large industrial PV installations had reached grid parity in California in 2011.[81][94] Grid parity for rooftop systems was still believed to be much farther away at this time.[94] Many LCOE calculations are not thought to be accurate, and a large amount of assumptions are required.[3][94] Module prices may drop further, and the LCOE for solar may correspondingly drop in the future.[95]

Because energy demands rise and fall over the course of the day, and solar power is limited by the fact that the sun sets, solar power companies must also factor in the additional costs of supplying a more stable alternative energy supplies to the grid in order to stabilize the system, or storing the energy. These costs are not factored into LCOE calculations, nor are special subsidies or premiums that may make buying solar power more attractive.[5] The unreliability and temporal variation in generation of solar and wind power is a major problem. Too much of these volatile power sources can cause instability of the entire grid.[96]

As of 2017 power-purchase agreement prices for solar farms below $0.05/kWh are common in the United States, and the lowest bids in some Persian Gulf countries were about $0.03/kWh.[97] The goal of the United States Department of Energy is to achieve a levelised cost of energy for solar PV of $0.03/kWh for utility companies.[98]

Subsidies and financing

[edit]

Financial incentives for photovoltaics, such as feed-in tariffs (FITs), were often offered to electricity consumers to install and operate solar-electric generating systems, and in some countries such subsidies are the only way photovoltaics can remain economically profitable.[99][obsolete source] PV FITs were crucial for early growth of photovoltaics. Germany and Spain were the most important countries offering subsidies for PV, and the policies of these countries drove demand.[3]

Some US solar cell manufacturing companies have repeatedly complained that the dropping prices of PV module costs have been achieved due to subsidies by the government of China, and the dumping of these products below fair market prices. US manufacturers generally recommend high tariffs on foreign supplies to allow them remain profitable. In response to these concerns, the Obama administration began to levy tariffs on US consumers of these products in 2012 to raise prices for domestic manufacturers.[3] The USA, however, also subsidies the industry.[88]

Some environmentalists have promoted the idea that government incentives should be used in order to expand the PV manufacturing industry to reduce costs of PV-generated electricity much more rapidly to a level where it is able to compete with fossil fuels in a free market.[citation needed] This is based on the theory that when the manufacturing capacity doubles, economies of scale will cause the prices of the solar products to halve.[5]

In many countries access to capital is lacking to develop PV projects.[100] To solve this problem, securitization is sometimes used to accelerate development of solar photovoltaic projects.[90][101][102]

Other

[edit]

Photovoltaic power is also generated during a time of day that is close to peak demand (precedes it) in electricity systems with high use of air conditioning. Since large-scale PV operation requires back-up in the form of spinning reserves, its[clarification needed] marginal cost of generation in the middle of the day is typically lowest, but not zero, when PV is generating electricity. This can be seen in Figure 1 of this paper:.[103] For residential properties with private PV facilities networked to the grid, the owner may be able earn extra money when the time of generation is included, as electricity is worth more during the day than at night.[104]

One journalist theorised in 2012 that if the energy bills of Americans were forced upwards by imposing an extra tax of $50/ton on carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power, this could have allowed solar PV to appear more cost-competitive to consumers in most locations.[87]

Growth

[edit]
Worldwide growth of photovoltaics on a semi-log plot since 1992

Solar photovoltaics formed the largest body of research among the seven sustainable energy types examined in a global bibliometric study, with the annual scientific output growing from 9,094 publications in 2011 to 14,447 publications in 2019.[105]

Likewise, the application of solar photovoltaics is growing rapidly and the worldwide installed capacity reached one terawatt in April 2022.[106] The total power output of the world's PV capacity in a calendar year is now beyond 500 TWh of electricity. This represents 2% of worldwide electricity demand. More than 100 countries, such as Brazil and India, use solar PV.[107][108] China is followed by the United States and Japan, while installations in Germany, once the world's largest producer, have been slowing down.

Honduras generated the highest percentage of its energy from solar in 2019, 14.8%.[109] As of 2019, Vietnam has the highest installed capacity in Southeast Asia, about 4.5 GW.[110] The annualized installation rate of about 90 W per capita per annum places Vietnam among world leaders.[110] Generous Feed-in tariff (FIT) and government supporting policies such as tax exemptions were the key to enable Vietnam's solar PV boom. Underlying drivers include the government's desire to enhance energy self-sufficiency and the public's demand for local environmental quality.[110]

A key barrier is limited transmission grid capacity.[110]

China has the world's largest solar power capacity, with 390 GW of installed capacity in 2022 compared with about 200 GW in the European Union, according to International Energy Agency data.[111] Other countries with the world's largest solar power capacities include the United States, Japan and Germany.

Top 20 PV countries in 2022 (MW)
Installed and total solar power capacity in 2022 (MW)[112]
# Nation Total capacity Added capacity
1 China China 393,000 86,100
2 United States United States 113,000 17,800
3 Japan Japan 78,800 4,600
4 Germany Germany 66,600 8,100
5 India India 63,100 13,500
6 Australia Australia 26,800 7,700
7 Italy Italy 25,100 2,400
8 Brazil Brazil 24,100 9,900
9 South Korea South Korea 21,000 2,800
10 Spain Spain 20,500 4,600
11 Netherlands Netherlands 19,100 4,200
12 Vietnam Vietnam 18,500 1,800
13 France France 17,400 2,700
14 United Kingdom United Kingdom 14,400 720
15 Poland Poland 11,200 4,900
16 Taiwan Taiwan 9,700 2,000
17 Turkey Turkey 9,400 1,600
18 Mexico Mexico 9,000 2,000
19 Ukraine Ukraine 8,100 0
20 Belgium Belgium 6,900 310

Data: IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2023 report, April 2023[112]
Also see Solar power by country for a complete and continuously updated list

In 2017, it was thought probable that by 2030 global PV installed capacities could be between 3,000 and 10,000 GW.[97] Greenpeace in 2010 claimed that 1,845 GW of PV systems worldwide could be generating approximately 2,646 TWh/year of electricity by 2030, and by 2050 over 20% of all electricity could be provided by PV.[113]

Applications

[edit]

There are many practical applications for the use of solar panels or photovoltaics covering every technological domain under the sun. From the fields of the agricultural industry as a power source for irrigation to its usage in remote health care facilities to refrigerate medical supplies. Other applications include power generation at various scales and attempts to integrate them into homes and public infrastructure. PV modules are used in photovoltaic systems and include a large variety of electrical devices.

Photovoltaic systems

[edit]

A photovoltaic system, or solar PV system is a power system designed to supply usable solar power by means of photovoltaics. It consists of an arrangement of several components, including solar panels to absorb and directly convert sunlight into electricity, a solar inverter to change the electric current from DC to AC, as well as mounting, cabling and other electrical accessories. PV systems range from small, roof-top mounted or building-integrated systems with capacities from a few to several tens of kilowatts, to large utility-scale power stations of hundreds of megawatts. Nowadays, most PV systems are grid-connected, while stand-alone systems only account for a small portion of the market.

Photo sensors

[edit]

Photosensors are sensors of light or other electromagnetic radiation.[114] A photo detector has a p–n junction that converts light photons into current. The absorbed photons make electron–hole pairs in the depletion region. Photodiodes and photo transistors are a few examples of photo detectors. Solar cells convert some of the light energy absorbed into electrical energy.

Experimental technology

[edit]

Crystalline silicon photovoltaics are only one type of PV, and while they represent the majority of solar cells produced currently there are many new and promising technologies that have the potential to be scaled up to meet future energy needs. As of 2018, crystalline silicon cell technology serves as the basis for several PV module types, including monocrystalline, multicrystalline, mono PERC, and bifacial.[115]

Another newer technology, thin-film PV, are manufactured by depositing semiconducting layers of perovskite, a mineral with semiconductor properties, on a substrate in vacuum. The substrate is often glass or stainless-steel, and these semiconducting layers are made of many types of materials including cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium diselenide (CIS), copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS), and amorphous silicon (a-Si). After being deposited onto the substrate the semiconducting layers are separated and connected by electrical circuit by laser scribing.[116][117] Perovskite solar cells are a very efficient solar energy converter and have excellent optoelectronic properties for photovoltaic purposes, but their upscaling from lab-sized cells to large-area modules is still under research.[118] Thin-film photovoltaic materials may possibly become attractive in the future, because of the reduced materials requirements and cost to manufacture modules consisting of thin-films as compared to silicon-based wafers.[119] In 2019 university labs at Oxford, Stanford and elsewhere reported perovskite solar cells with efficiencies of 20-25%.[120]

CIGS

[edit]

Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) is a thin film solar cell based on the copper indium diselenide (CIS) family of chalcopyrite semiconductors. CIS and CIGS are often used interchangeably within the CIS/CIGS community. The cell structure includes soda lime glass as the substrate, Mo layer as the back contact, CIS/CIGS as the absorber layer, cadmium sulfide (CdS) or Zn (S,OH)x as the buffer layer, and ZnO:Al as the front contact.[121] CIGS is approximately 1/100 the thickness of conventional silicon solar cell technologies. Materials necessary for assembly are readily available, and are less costly per watt of solar cell. CIGS based solar devices resist performance degradation over time and are highly stable in the field.

Reported global warming potential impacts of CIGS ranges 20.5–58.8 grams CO2-eq/kWh of electricity generated for different solar irradiation (1,700 to 2,200 kWh/m2/y) and power conversion efficiency (7.8 – 9.12%).[122] EPBT ranges from 0.2 to 1.4 years,[72] while harmonized value of EPBT was found 1.393 years.[60] Toxicity is an issue within the buffer layer of CIGS modules because it contains cadmium and gallium.[55][123] CIS modules do not contain any heavy metals.

Perovskite solar cells

[edit]
A perovskite solar cell

A perovskite solar cell (PSC) is a type of solar cell that includes a perovskite-structured compound, most commonly a hybrid organic–inorganic lead or tin halide-based material as the light-harvesting active layer.[124][125] Perovskite materials, such as methylammonium lead halides and all-inorganic cesium lead halide, are cheap to produce and simple to manufacture.

Solar-cell efficiencies of laboratory-scale devices using these materials have increased from 3.8% in 2009[126] to 25.7% in 2021 in single-junction architectures,[127][128] and, in silicon-based tandem cells, to 34.85%,[127][129] exceeding the maximum efficiency achieved in single-junction silicon solar cells. Perovskite solar cells have therefore been the fastest-advancing solar technology as of 2016.[124] With the potential of achieving even higher efficiencies and very low production costs, perovskite solar cells have become commercially attractive. Core problems and research subjects include their short- and long-term stability.[130]

Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells

[edit]

Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) are a novel thin film solar cell. These solar cells operate under ambient light better than other photovoltaic technologies. They work with light being absorbed in a sensitizing dye between two charge transport materials. Dye surrounds TiO2 nanoparticles which are in a sintered network.[131] TiO2 acts as conduction band in an n-type semiconductor; the scaffold for adorned dye molecules and transports elections during excitation. For TiO2 DSC technology, sample preparation at high temperatures is very effective because higher temperatures produce more suitable textural properties. Another example of DSCs is the copper complex with Cu (II/I) as a redox shuttle with TMBY (4,4',6,6'-tetramethyl-2,2'bipyridine). DSCs show great performance with artificial and indoor light. From a range of 200 lux to 2,000 lux, these cells operate at conditions of a maximum efficiency of 29.7%.[132]

However, there have been issues with DSCs, many of which come from the liquid electrolyte. The solvent is hazardous, and will permeate most plastics. Because it is liquid, it is unstable to temperature variation, leading to freezing in cold temperatures and expansion in warm temperatures causing failure.[133] Another disadvantage is that the solar cell is not ideal for large scale application because of its low efficiency. Some of the benefits for DSC is that it can be used in a variety of light levels (including cloudy conditions), it has a low production cost, and it does not degrade under sunlight, giving it a longer lifetime then other types of thin film solar cells.

OPV

[edit]

Other possible future PV technologies include organic, dye-sensitized and quantum-dot photovoltaics.[134] Organic photovoltaics (OPVs) fall into the thin-film category of manufacturing, and typically operate around the 12% efficiency range which is lower than the 12–21% typically seen by silicon-based PVs. Because organic photovoltaics require very high purity and are relatively reactive they must be encapsulated which vastly increases the cost of manufacturing and means that they are not feasible for large scale-up. Dye-sensitized PVs are similar in efficiency to OPVs but are significantly easier to manufacture. However, these dye-sensitized photovoltaics present storage problems because the liquid electrolyte is toxic and can potentially permeate the plastics used in the cell. Quantum dot solar cells are solution-processed, meaning they are potentially scalable, but currently they peak at 12% efficiency.[118]

Organic and polymer photovoltaic (OPV) are a relatively new area of research. The tradition OPV cell structure layers consist of a semi-transparent electrode, electron blocking layer, tunnel junction, holes blocking layer, electrode, with the sun hitting the transparent electrode. OPV replaces silver with carbon as an electrode material lowering manufacturing cost and making them more environmentally friendly.[135] OPV are flexible, low weight, and work well with roll-to roll manufacturing for mass production.[136] OPV uses "only abundant elements coupled to an extremely low embodied energy through very low processing temperatures using only ambient processing conditions on simple printing equipment enabling energy pay-back times".[137] Current efficiencies range 1–6.5%,[58][138] however theoretical analyses show promise beyond 10% efficiency.[137]

Many different configurations of OPV exist using different materials for each layer. OPV technology rivals existing PV technologies in terms of EPBT even if they currently present a shorter operational lifetime. A 2013 study analyzed 12 different configurations all with 2% efficiency, the EPBT ranged from 0.29 to 0.52 years for 1 m2 of PV.[139] The average CO2-eq/kWh for OPV is 54.922 grams.[140]

Thermophotovoltaics

[edit]

Thermophotovoltaic (TPV) energy conversion is a direct conversion process from heat to electricity via photons. A basic thermophotovoltaic system consists of a hot object emitting thermal radiation and a photovoltaic cell similar to a solar cell but tuned to the spectrum being emitted from the hot object.[141]

As TPV systems generally work at lower temperatures than solar cells, their efficiencies tend to be low. Offsetting this through the use of multi-junction cells based on non-silicon materials is common, but generally very expensive. This currently limits TPV to niche roles like spacecraft power and waste heat collection from larger systems like steam turbines.

Photovoltaic-Thermoelectric Generator

[edit]

Photovoltaic-Thermoelectric Generator (PV-TEG) hybrid system is a type of hybrid PV cell that pairs a photovoltaic (PV) cell with a thermoelectric generator (TEG).[142] TEGs rely on the Seebeck effect, a phenomenon that occurs when a junction of two conducting materials experience a temperature difference thereby, inducing an electromotive force.[143] The resulting voltage is directly proportional to the temperature difference.

During the process of converting light into electricity, heat dissipates, making PV cells less efficient at high temperatures and reducing their lifespan.[143] By integrating a TEG into the system, heat is facilitated away from the PV cell and converts it into electricity, thereby improving its efficiency and longevity.[144]

The thermoelectric figure of merit ZT, determines the efficiency of converting heat into electricity as well as the ability to cool.[145] Optimizing parameters such as electrical conductivity (σ), Seebeck coefficient (S), thermal conductivity (κ) are of interest to maximize efficiencies.

Common thermoelectric materials typically have a ZT value of about 1, corresponding to an efficiency of approximately 10% or less.[145] While typical TEGs have a low conversion efficiency, ongoing research in thermoelectric materials such as BiTe (ZT = 2.4) , SnSe (ZT = 2.6), and half-Heusler compounds (ZT = 1.6) have led to improvement in efficiency over the years.[145][144] Theoretical predictions indicate greater potential for optimization, with estimated values of 14 for BiTe, 2.6 for SnSe, and 2.2 for half-Heusler.[145]

Solar module alignment

[edit]

A number of solar modules may also be mounted vertically above each other in a tower, if the zenith distance of the Sun is greater than zero, and the tower can be turned horizontally as a whole and each module additionally around a horizontal axis. In such a tower the modules can follow the Sun exactly. Such a device may be described as a ladder mounted on a turnable disk. Each step of that ladder is the middle axis of a rectangular solar panel. In case the zenith distance of the Sun reaches zero, the "ladder" may be rotated to the north or the south to avoid a solar module producing a shadow on a lower one. Instead of an exactly vertical tower one can choose a tower with an axis directed to the polar star, meaning that it is parallel to the rotation axis of the Earth. In this case the angle between the axis and the Sun is always larger than 66 degrees. During a day it is only necessary to turn the panels around this axis to follow the Sun. Installations may be ground-mounted (and sometimes integrated with farming and grazing)[146] or built into the roof or walls of a building (building-integrated photovoltaics).

Where land may be limited, PV can be deployed as floating solar. In 2008 the Far Niente Winery pioneered the world's first "floatovoltaic" system by installing 994 photovoltaic solar panels onto 130 pontoons and floating them on the winery's irrigation pond.[147][148] A benefit of the set up is that the panels are kept at a lower temperature than they would be on land, leading to a higher efficiency of solar energy conversion. The floating panels also reduce the amount of water lost through evaporation and inhibit the growth of algae.[149]

Concentrator photovoltaics is a technology that contrary to conventional flat-plate PV systems uses lenses and curved mirrors to focus sunlight onto small, but highly efficient, multi-junction solar cells. These systems sometimes use solar trackers and a cooling system to increase their efficiency.

Efficiency

[edit]
Best research-cell efficiencies

In 2019, the world record for solar cell efficiency at 47.1% was achieved by using multi-junction concentrator solar cells, developed at National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Colorado, US.[150] The highest efficiencies achieved without concentration include a material by Sharp Corporation at 35.8% using a proprietary triple-junction manufacturing technology in 2009,[151] and Boeing Spectrolab (40.7% also using a triple-layer design).

There is an ongoing effort to increase the conversion efficiency of PV cells and modules, primarily for competitive advantage. In order to increase the efficiency of solar cells, it is important to choose a semiconductor material with an appropriate band gap that matches the solar spectrum. This will enhance the electrical and optical properties. Improving the method of charge collection is also useful for increasing the efficiency. There are several groups of materials that are being developed. Ultrahigh-efficiency devices (η>30%)[152] are made by using GaAs and GaInP2 semiconductors with multijunction tandem cells. High-quality, single-crystal silicon materials are used to achieve high-efficiency, low cost cells (η>20%).

Recent developments in organic photovoltaic cells (OPVs) have made significant advancements in power conversion efficiency from 3% to over 15% since their introduction in the 1980s.[153] To date, the highest reported power conversion efficiency ranges 6.7–8.94% for small molecule, 8.4–10.6% for polymer OPVs, and 7–21% for perovskite OPVs.[154][155] OPVs are expected to play a major role in the PV market. Recent improvements have increased the efficiency and lowered cost, while remaining environmentally-benign and renewable.

Several companies have begun embedding power optimizers into PV modules called smart modules. These modules perform maximum power point tracking (MPPT) for each module individually, measure performance data for monitoring, and provide additional safety features. Such modules can also compensate for shading effects, wherein a shadow falling across a section of a module causes the electrical output of one or more strings of cells in the module to decrease.[156]

One of the major causes for the decreased performance of cells is overheating. The efficiency of a solar cell declines by about 0.5% for every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature. This means that a 100 degree increase in surface temperature could decrease the efficiency of a solar cell by about half. Self-cooling solar cells are one solution to this problem. Rather than using energy to cool the surface, pyramid and cone shapes can be formed from silica, and attached to the surface of a solar panel. Doing so allows visible light to reach the solar cells, but reflects infrared rays (which carry heat).[157]

Advantages

[edit]
  • Pollution and energy in production

The 122 PW of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface is plentiful—almost 10,000 times more than the 13 TW equivalent of average power consumed in 2005 by humans.[158] This abundance leads to the suggestion that it will not be long before solar energy will become the world's primary energy source.[159] Additionally, solar radiation has the highest power density (global mean of 170 W/m2) among renewable energies.[158][citation needed]

Solar power is pollution-free during use, which enables it to cut down on pollution when it is substituted for other energy sources. For example, MIT estimated that 52,000 people per year die prematurely in the U.S. from coal-fired power plant pollution[160] and all but one of these deaths could be prevented from using PV to replace coal.[161][162] Production end-wastes and emissions are manageable using existing pollution controls. End-of-use recycling technologies are under development[163] and policies are being produced that encourage recycling from producers.[164]

Solar panels are usually guaranteed for 25 years (but inverters tend to fail sooner),[165][166] with little maintenance or intervention after their initial set-up, so after the initial capital cost of building any solar power plant, operating costs are extremely low compared to existing power technologies.

Rooftop solar can be used locally, thus reducing transmission/distribution losses.[167]

  • Solar cell research investment

Compared to fossil and nuclear energy sources, very little research money has been invested in the development of solar cells, so there is considerable room for improvement. Nevertheless, experimental high efficiency solar cells already have efficiencies of over 40% in case of concentrating photovoltaic cells[168] and efficiencies are rapidly rising while mass-production costs are rapidly falling.[169]

  • Housing subsidies

In some states of the United States, much of the investment in a home-mounted system may be lost if the homeowner moves and the buyer puts less value on the system than the seller. The city of Berkeley developed an innovative financing method to remove this limitation, by adding a tax assessment that is transferred with the home to pay for the solar panels.[170] Now known as PACE, Property Assessed Clean Energy, 30 U.S. states have duplicated this solution.[171]

Disadvantages

[edit]
  • Impact on electricity network
Grids with high penetration of renewable energy sources generally need more flexible generation rather than baseload generation.

For behind-the-meter rooftop photovoltaic systems, the energy flow becomes two-way. When there is more local generation than consumption, electricity is exported to the grid, allowing for net metering. However, electricity networks traditionally are not designed to deal with two-way energy transfer, which may introduce technical issues. An over-voltage issue may come out as the electricity flows from these PV households back to the network.[172] There are solutions to manage the over-voltage issue, such as regulating PV inverter power factor, new voltage and energy control equipment at electricity distributor level, re-conductor the electricity wires, demand side management, etc. There are often limitations and costs related to these solutions.

High generation during the middle of the day reduces the net generation demand, but higher peak net demand as the sun goes down can require rapid ramping of utility generating stations, producing a load profile called the duck curve.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]

Further reading

[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia
from Grokipedia
Photovoltaics (PV), also known as solar photovoltaics, is a technology that generates electrical power by converting directly into through the in materials, typically arranged in solar cells forming modules or panels. The effect, first observed in 1839 by French physicist Alexandre-Edmond using an , enables photons to excite electrons across a material's bandgap, creating a voltage difference without moving parts or emissions during operation. Practical development began in the 1950s with Bell Laboratories' cells achieving 6% in 1954, initially powering satellites before terrestrial applications expanded amid cost declines. By 2024, global cumulative PV capacity exceeded 2.2 terawatts, with annual additions surpassing 600 gigawatts, fueled by module price drops of over 90% in the last decade through scaled manufacturing and technological refinements like passivated emitter rear contact (PERC) and cells. Commercial efficiencies for modules now reach 22-24%, while research tandems combining with perovskites have hit 33%, though and stability remain hurdles. Defining achievements include enabling distributed generation and utility-scale farms, yet PV's intermittency—output varying with weather, time, and location—demands complementary dispatchable sources or storage for grid stability, and its lifecycle environmental footprint involves energy-intensive production, mining for rare materials like silver and tellurium, and disposal challenges for end-of-life panels.

Fundamentals

Etymology and Definition

The term photovoltaic combines the Greek prefix photo-, from φῶς (phōs) meaning "," with voltaic, referring to and derived from the name of Italian physicist (1745–1827), inventor of the electrochemical battery and namesake of the volt unit. This etymology reflects the core process of generating electric current from light exposure at material junctions. Photovoltaics (PV) denotes the direct conversion of photons from light—primarily solar radiation—into electrical energy via semiconducting materials that produce voltage when illuminated, exploiting the photovoltaic effect. Unlike thermal solar technologies that rely on heat-induced expansion or steam generation, PV systems generate direct current electricity through electron excitation in p-n junctions or equivalent structures, enabling solid-state, non-mechanical power production suitable for diverse applications from portable devices to utility-scale grids. The effect can occur with artificial light sources as well, though sunlight provides the highest efficiency due to its spectral match with common PV materials.

Photovoltaic Effect and Basic Principles

The refers to the generation of an or voltage difference in a upon exposure to , enabling the direct conversion of solar radiation into electrical energy. This phenomenon was first demonstrated in 1839 by French physicist Alexandre-Edmond , who observed that the voltage of an increased when illuminated, using electrodes immersed in an solution. Although Becquerel's discovery involved a liquid-based system, the principle underpins modern solid-state photovoltaic devices, which rely on semiconductors rather than electrolytes for practical efficiency and scalability. In semiconductor-based photovoltaics, arises from the absorption of photons by the , where only those with exceeding the semiconductor's bandgap (E_g) can generate charge carriers. Absorption promotes electrons from the valence band to the conduction band, leaving behind holes, thus creating electron-hole pairs; excess is dissipated as via thermalization. For common s like , with a bandgap of approximately 1.1 volts (eV) at , this corresponds to wavelengths shorter than about 1100 nanometers being effectively absorbed. The separation of these photogenerated carriers occurs primarily in a p-n junction structure, formed by joining p-type semiconductor (doped with acceptors to create excess holes) and n-type semiconductor (doped with donors to create excess electrons). At the junction, of majority carriers establishes a devoid of free charges, accompanied by a built-in (typically 0.5-1 volt for ) that opposes further . When light generates carriers near this region, the field sweeps minority carriers—electrons toward the n-side and holes toward the p-side—preventing recombination and producing a net current. Under open-circuit conditions, carrier separation builds up a voltage (V_oc) equalizing the photocurrent with recombination currents, while short-circuit conditions yield maximum current (I_sc) with zero voltage; the current-voltage (I-V) curve's power output is maximized at the maximum power point, characterized by fill factor (FF = P_max / (V_oc * I_sc)). Efficiency (η) is defined as the ratio of electrical power output to incident , limited by factors including bandgap mismatch with the solar spectrum (Shockley-Queisser limit of ~33% for single-junction under standard conditions), reflection losses, and incomplete carrier collection. These principles, grounded in , enable photovoltaic cells to operate without moving parts or emissions, though real-world performance depends on material quality, doping levels, and anti-reflection coatings to minimize optical losses.

History

Early Discoveries (19th Century)

In 1839, French physicist Alexandre-Edmond Becquerel, then aged 19 and working in his father's laboratory, first observed the while investigating electrolytic cells. He used a cell consisting of electrodes immersed in an acidic solution containing and noted that illumination increased the produced during , generating a voltage proportional to light intensity. This demonstration established the foundational principle of direct light-to-electricity conversion in a liquid-electrode system, though the effect was limited to low voltages and required an external circuit for measurement. Progress stalled for decades due to the lack of suitable solid materials and theoretical understanding, but interest revived in the 1870s with investigations into . In 1873, English electrical engineer Willoughby Smith discovered 's : when a current passed through a crystalline selenium bar, its electrical resistance decreased markedly under illumination, varying with light intensity. This property, observed during telegraph cable testing, highlighted selenium's sensitivity to light but required an applied voltage, distinguishing it from true photovoltaic action. Building on Smith's findings, British physicists William Grylls Adams and Richard Evans Day advanced the work in 1876 by demonstrating that thin selenium plates, when exposed to light without an external current, generated a small but measurable electric current or voltage across metal contacts—confirming the photovoltaic effect in a solid-state material. Their experiments used selenium coated on iron or platinum and illuminated it with sunlight or lamplight, producing outputs on the order of microvolts, though efficiency remained negligible for practical use and the mechanism was not fully explained until quantum theory emerged later. Between 1888 and 1891, Russian physicist Aleksandr Stoletov systematically investigated the photoelectric effect, building on Heinrich Hertz's 1887 discovery. He measured its dependence on light intensity, wavelength, and material properties, formulating Stoletov's law, which states that the saturation photocurrent is proportional to the incident light intensity. Stoletov constructed the first practical photoelectric cells using surfaces of alkali metals and other materials, generating electric current directly from illumination without external bias, based on the external photoelectric effect in solids. These early observations in solid materials laid groundwork for dry photovoltaic cells but faced challenges like instability and poor conversion rates, limiting applications to scientific curiosity through the century's end.

20th Century Research and Space Applications

In 1941, Russell Ohl at Bell Laboratories discovered the p-n junction in while investigating impurities in crystals, laying the groundwork for modern photovoltaic devices by enabling the separation of charge carriers under illumination. This foundational work culminated in 1954 when Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller, and Gerald Pearson at the same laboratory developed the first practical solar cell, achieving a sunlight-to-electricity conversion efficiency of 6 percent under standard conditions. The cell's design incorporated a shallow p-n junction to maximize light absorption and minority carrier collection, marking a shift from earlier low-efficiency and cells to semiconductor-based photovoltaics capable of practical power output. Post-1954 research accelerated, driven by demands for reliable power in remote and harsh environments, particularly . Hoffman Electronics Corporation advanced cell performance, reaching 8 percent by 1957 through refinements in grid contacts and surface passivation, and 10 percent by 1959 with improved antireflection coatings. These gains addressed key limitations such as high series resistance and optical losses, informed by empirical testing of doping levels and junction depths. By 1960, achieved 14 percent in terrestrial-optimized cells, though space variants prioritized durability over peak performance, incorporating coverslips for shielding and mechanical robustness. emphasized causal factors like defect densities and recombination rates, with and collaborators quantifying drops from cosmic ray damage through accelerated aging tests. Space applications validated and propelled photovoltaic adoption despite terrestrial costs exceeding $300 per watt in the . The satellite, launched by the on March 17, 1958, became the first spacecraft powered by solar cells, using six small panels producing about 0.1 watts to recharge a for its 108 MHz beacon transmitter. This 1.46-kilogram sphere demonstrated long-term orbital viability, with the cells operating beyond initial projections despite risks and thermal cycling from -100°C to 100°C eclipses. Subsequent missions, including 's Nimbus meteorological satellites in the early , scaled arrays to kilowatt levels, necessitating research into lightweight deployable wings and bypass diodes to mitigate shading-induced hotspots. By the mid-, cells powered over 90 percent of U.S. satellites, fostering innovations like ion-textured surfaces for better low-light response and empirical models correlating fluence with degradation rates, typically 2-3 percent annual output loss in low-Earth orbit. These efforts, funded by military and space agencies, prioritized causal reliability over cost, enabling photovoltaic dominance in uncrewed missions where batteries alone proved insufficient for extended operations. Late-20th-century research shifted toward multi-junction cells for higher voltage under concentrated illumination, but remained prevalent for through the due to proven scalability. NASA's Lewis Research Center (now Glenn) tested variants in the 1980s, achieving 18-20 percent efficiencies under AM0 spectrum, though integration challenges like lattice matching delayed widespread use until the 2000s. Empirical data from orbiting arrays revealed key degradation mechanisms, including ultraviolet-induced encapsulant yellowing and electron irradiation displacing atoms in the lattice, prompting causal mitigations like barriers. By century's end, space-derived advancements had elevated single-junction efficiencies to 25 percent in labs, though flight-qualified cells hovered at 12-15 percent to balance with tolerance. This era's focus on verifiable performance metrics—output under vacuum, thermal vacuum cycling, and proton bombardment—established photovoltaics as indispensable for deep-space probes like Voyager, launched in 1977 with radioisotope backups but solar primaries for initial phases.

Commercialization from 1970s to Present

Commercialization of photovoltaics accelerated in the amid the global oil crises, which heightened interest in alternative sources. In 1973, the constructed the first building-integrated photovoltaic system, a solar house demonstrating practical application. High production costs limited early adoption, with silicon solar modules priced at approximately $115 per watt in 1975, restricting use to niche markets like remote and space applications. The U.S. government supported development through the 1974 Solar Energy Research, Development and Demonstration Act and subsequent Department of Energy programs in the late , promoting federal procurement and installation of PV systems. By the early 1980s, companies like ARCO Solar began producing commercial panels, though costs remained above $10 per watt, confining PV to off-grid and specialized uses. The 1990s and early 2000s marked policy-driven expansion, particularly in and . 's 1994 "Sunshine Project" and subsequent subsidies, including the 1997 New Sunshine Program, spurred residential adoption, making the global leader in PV installations by 2005. 's 2000 Renewable Energy Sources Act introduced feed-in tariffs, catalyzing explosive growth; cumulative installed capacity in reached 1 GW by 2004 and over 30 GW by 2010. These incentives, combined with manufacturing improvements, initiated cost reductions following a where prices fell roughly 20% with each doubling of global capacity. U.S. efforts, including California's 2006 Solar Initiative, added domestic momentum, though global capacity remained under 40 GW by 2010. From the onward, rapid manufacturing scale-up, especially in , drove unprecedented cost declines and capacity growth. Module prices dropped from $2.15 per watt in 2010 to $0.27 per watt in 2021, enabling utility-scale deployments. Global installed PV capacity surged from about 40 GW in 2010 to over 1 TW by 2023, with solar PV generation reaching 1,600 TWh that year, the largest absolute increase among all sources. 's dominance in production and installation—adding over 200 GW annually by the mid-2020s—accounted for nearly half of global additions, supported by domestic policies and export markets. By 2024, solar represented over 50% of new U.S. capacity additions at 32.4 GW, while projections indicate global capacity exceeding 2.5 TW by 2025, driven by low costs and supportive policies despite vulnerabilities. Installed system costs in the U.S. fell 64-82% from 2010 to 2020 across residential, commercial, and utility segments, reflecting and technological refinements.

Solar Cell Technologies

Crystalline Silicon Cells

Crystalline silicon solar cells, fabricated from high-purity wafers, constitute the predominant technology in photovoltaic modules, accounting for approximately 98% of global production in 2024. These cells operate by forming a p-n junction in the lattice, enabling the photovoltaic effect to generate from absorbed photons. They are categorized into monocrystalline and polycrystalline (also known as multicrystalline) variants, differing primarily in and manufacturing yield. Monocrystalline silicon cells derive from a single continuous grown via the Czochralski process, where a is dipped into molten and slowly pulled to form a cylindrical , which is then sliced into wafers. This method yields cells with uniform crystal orientation, enabling higher mobility and efficiencies typically ranging from 17% to 22% in commercial modules. Their appearance features a dark black hue due to the pure , and they require more material per watt, contributing to higher production costs. Polycrystalline silicon cells, in contrast, are produced by casting molten into molds to solidify into blocks containing multiple grains, followed by slicing. This approach is less energy-intensive and material-efficient than monocrystalline production, resulting in lower costs but efficiencies of 15% to 17% owing to grain boundaries that introduce recombination losses. Visually, they exhibit a tint from the square-shaped s and fragmented . Fabrication of both types involves similar wafer processing steps post-slicing: chemical texturing to reduce reflection, diffusion to create the n-type emitter layer forming the p-n junction, edge isolation via etching, deposition of anti-reflective coatings such as , and screen-printing of metal contacts for current collection. Advanced variants, like passivated emitter rear cell (PERC) structures, incorporate rear-side passivation layers to minimize recombination, boosting commercial efficiencies beyond 22% for monocrystalline cells. Laboratory records for single-junction cells have reached 27.03% total-area for commercial-sized (350 cm²) monocrystalline devices as of July 2025, achieved through innovations like interdigitated back contact (IBC) architectures that eliminate front-side shading losses. However, real-world module remain lower, typically 20-22% for monocrystalline and 18-20% for polycrystalline, limited by factors such as material purity, surface recombination, and optical losses. The maturity of technology ensures long-term reliability, with field degradation rates under 0.5% per year, supporting 25-30 year warranties. Despite competition from thin-film alternatives, 's and advantages maintain its market dominance.

Thin-Film Technologies

Thin-film photovoltaic technologies deposit absorber layers, typically 0.5–2 micrometers thick, onto low-cost substrates such as , metal foil, or flexible polymers, enabling large-area deposition via methods like vapor deposition, , or . This contrasts with cells, which require thicker wafers (around 150–200 micrometers), allowing thin-film modules to use far less active material—often 1% or less of the volume—while facilitating roll-to-roll for . As of 2025, thin-film cells hold approximately 2.5–5.5% of the global solar market share, down from a peak of 15% in 2010, due to competition from higher-efficiency but with projections for growth to 10–12% by 2035 driven by applications in (BIPV) and flexible installations. The primary commercial thin-film types include (a-Si), (CdTe), and (CIGS). cells, deposited via , achieve module efficiencies of 6–10% but perform better in diffuse light and low temperatures; they are often configured in tandem structures with microcrystalline silicon to reach 12–14% efficiency, though production has declined due to light-induced degradation (Staebler-Wronski effect), reducing output by 10–30% initially. modules, led by which controls over 90% of global production, offer certified efficiencies up to 19–22% at the module level, with laboratory cells at 22.1%; their vapor transport deposition process enables low-cost, high-volume manufacturing, yielding energy payback times of 6–12 months. CIGS cells, using co-evaporation or of , attain laboratory efficiencies of 23.4% and module efficiencies around 17–20%, benefiting from tunable bandgaps for better spectrum matching, though scaling remains challenging with fewer dominant manufacturers.
TypeKey MaterialLab Efficiency (2025)Module EfficiencyPrimary AdvantagesNotable Challenges
a-SiHydrogenated amorphous silicon~14% (tandem)6–10%Low-cost deposition, diffuse light performanceDegradation, low efficiency
CdTe22.1%19–22%Fast manufacturing, high yieldCadmium toxicity, recycling concerns
CIGSCu(In,Ga)Se₂23.4%17–20%Flexible substrates, bandgap tuningMaterial variability, supply chain for rare elements
Thin-film technologies excel in manufacturing simplicity and material efficiency, often requiring 95% less than , leading to lower levelized costs in high-volume production (e.g., CdTe at $0.30–0.40/Wp in 2024). They exhibit superior temperature coefficients (-0.25% to -0.32%/°C vs. -0.4% for ), generating 5–10% more annual in hot climates, and enable , flexible modules for curved surfaces or portable applications. However, their lower efficiencies necessitate larger areas for equivalent output, raising balance-of-system costs, while stability issues like moisture ingress in CIGS or cadmium's environmental risks limit adoption; life-cycle assessments show thin-film panels with 20–30% lower than but require robust encapsulation. Despite these, CdTe's dominance persists, with shipping over 10 GW annually by 2025, underscoring viability in utility-scale deployments where cost trumps peak efficiency.

Emerging and Multi-Junction Cells

Multi-junction solar cells consist of multiple p-n junctions fabricated from semiconductors with distinct bandgaps, enabling sequential absorption of photons across the solar spectrum to surpass the limits of single-junction cells. Each subcell captures high-energy photons while transmitting lower-energy ones to underlying layers, minimizing thermalization losses inherent in single-bandgap devices. This architecture theoretically permits efficiencies approaching 86% under unconcentrated sunlight for infinite junctions, though practical constraints limit real-world performance. Conventional multi-junction cells, typically employing III-V compound semiconductors such as (GaAs) and indium gallium phosphide (InGaP), achieve record efficiencies exceeding 39% under one-sun conditions and up to 47.1% under concentrated illumination for six-junction configurations. These lattice-matched or metamorphic structures demand precise epitaxial growth via metalorganic (MOCVD) to align crystal lattices and minimize defects. High material costs and complex fabrication restrict their terrestrial use, confining applications primarily to space missions—where and minimal area are paramount—and concentrated photovoltaics (CPV) systems leveraging optical concentration to amplify . Emerging multi-junction designs integrate with established or III-V bases to leverage low-cost solution processing and tunable bandgaps for tandem or triple-junction architectures. Perovskite- tandems have attained certified of 34.85% as of April 2025, with LONGi demonstrating a two-terminal device featuring a wide-bandgap perovskite top cell atop a bottom cell. Triple-junction perovskite-perovskite- cells reached 23.3% steady-state on 16 cm² areas by October 2025, highlighting progress in passivation and despite persistent challenges in perovskite stability under humidity, heat, and UV exposure. These hybrids address spectrum mismatch via bandgap engineering—perovskites targeting ~1.7 eV for blue-green light and at 1.1 eV for —but face hurdles in interface recombination, lead , and long-term durability, necessitating encapsulation advancements for commercial viability. Ongoing research prioritizes all-perovskite multi-junctions and integrations to push beyond 40% at reduced costs, though empirical data underscores the need for accelerated aging tests to validate extrapolations from lab-scale records.

Efficiency Achievements and Theoretical Limits

The Shockley-Queisser limit establishes the theoretical maximum for a single p-n junction under unconcentrated , calculated at 33.7% for an optimal bandgap of approximately 1.34 eV under the AM1.5 global spectrum, assuming and radiative recombination as the sole loss mechanism. This limit arises from fundamental thermodynamic constraints, including the inability to absorb photons below the bandgap and thermalization losses for higher-energy photons, as derived from principles. For s with a 1.1 eV bandgap, the Shockley-Queisser is lower, around 29-30%, further reduced in practice by non-radiative recombination processes like Auger effects to approximately 29.4%. Achievements in single-junction cells have approached but not exceeded the Shockley-Queisser limit. As of July 2025, the highest confirmed efficiency for research cells stands at 26.7%, achieved through advanced passivation and carrier-selective contacts. single-junction cells have reached 25.7%, benefiting from tunable bandgaps and low-temperature processing, though stability remains a challenge. Thin-film technologies lag further, with (CIGS) at 23.4% and (CdTe) at 22.1%, constrained by material quality and defect densities. Multi-junction cells circumvent the single-junction limit by stacking semiconductors with different bandgaps to capture a broader , theoretically enabling efficiencies up to 68.7% under one-sun illumination with infinite junctions, though practical limits for three-junction designs approach 50-60% depending on concentration. Hybrid tandems, such as perovskite-silicon, have achieved 33.7% in research settings, surpassing single-junction records by optimizing current matching and voltage addition. Six-junction III-V cells under concentration have attained 47.1%, primarily for and , where lattice-matched epitaxial growth enables precise bandgap engineering. These records, verified by independent labs like NREL and Fraunhofer ISE, highlight progress toward practical limits but underscore persistent challenges in scalability and cost.

Performance and Operational Factors

Efficiency Under Real-World Conditions

Real-world efficiency of photovoltaic (PV) systems deviates from laboratory-measured values under standard test conditions (STC) of 1000 W/m² , 25°C cell temperature, and AM1.5 , primarily due to environmental and operational losses that reduce output by 15-30% relative to ratings. The performance ratio (PR), defined as the ratio of actual output to the theoretical maximum based on in-plane and rated capacity (PR = actual AC output / (rated DC capacity × total in-plane irradiance)), quantifies this gap by aggregating losses from non-ideal conditions; typical PR values for grid-connected systems range from 75% to 85%, with well-maintained installations achieving 80-90% in temperate climates. Standards like IEC 61724-1 guide PR implementation, specifying monitoring equipment, methods, and analysis phases including initial commissioning tests to establish baselines, interim ongoing assessments for performance tracking, and final end-of-warranty evaluations. Required sensors encompass plane-of-array pyranometers for irradiance (minimum three per monitoring station for redundancy), module and ambient temperature sensors, and AC/DC power meters; larger systems employ multiple stations scaling with array size to ensure data accuracy. These enable precise PR calculations over time, independent of location, by integrating measured outputs against expected yields while isolating factors such as soiling, shading, temperature, and inverter losses. Physically, PR reductions arise from mechanisms such as temperature-induced increases in intrinsic carrier concentrations, which elevate dark current and recombination rates (including Shockley-Read-Hall, radiative, and Auger processes), narrowing the bandgap slightly but predominantly reducing open-circuit voltage and fill factor; soiling via particle scattering and absorption of incident photons, diminishing transmittance; partial shading causing current mismatch in series-connected cells, leading to reverse bias, hotspots, and disproportionate array output loss until bypass diodes activate; and inverter conversion inefficiencies from DC-AC topology losses. Workarounds to improve PR include passive cooling through elevated mounting and airflow to limit cell temperatures, regular cleaning or anti-soiling coatings for dust mitigation, module-level power electronics like micro-inverters to decouple shaded elements and reduce mismatch, optimized array spacing or single-axis tracking to minimize self-shading, and selection of high-efficiency inverters (>98%) to curb conversion losses. These reductions stem from factors aggregating losses in DC-to-AC conversion, thermal effects, and site-specific conditions, often modeled with an overall derate factor of approximately 0.77 (23% loss) at nominal operating cell temperature. Temperature exerts a dominant influence, as PV cell efficiency declines with rising heat due to increased intrinsic carrier concentrations that raise dark current and reduce voltage output via enhanced recombination. modules exhibit a of -0.3% to -0.5% per °C above 25°C, leading to 10-25% power loss when operating temperatures reach 50-70°C under full sun, common in hot climates like or deserts. Thin-film technologies, such as CdTe, show milder coefficients around -0.25%/°C, offering relative advantages in high-heat environments. Mitigation via elevated mounting or ventilation can limit cell temperatures to 40-50°C, preserving 5-10% more output. Soiling from , , droppings, and pollutants scatters or absorbs incident light, causing global average annual losses of 3-5%, escalating to 10-20% in arid or industrial regions without cleaning. NREL's insolation-weighted soiling ratio maps indicate 5% median U.S. yield reduction, with higher impacts in the Southwest due to fine particulates adhering via or . Regular cleaning or anti-soiling coatings can recover these losses, but economic viability depends on local dust deposition rates exceeding 0.1 g/m²/day. Shading and electrical mismatch further erode efficiency, as even partial obstruction of one cell in a series string bypasses current via diodes, reducing array output disproportionately—up to 30-50% for 10% shaded area in conventional configurations. Manufacturing tolerances (1-2% current variation) and differential heating or aging compound these, yielding 1-3% inherent mismatch losses; micro-inverters or module-level power optimizers mitigate this by decoupling strings, boosting PR by 5-15% in partially shaded sites.
FactorTypical Loss (%)Primary CauseCitation
Temperature10-25Elevated cell temps >50°C
Soiling3-10Dust/pollutant accumulation
Mismatch/Shading1-5 (inherent); up to 30 (partial shade)Current variations, obstructions
Inverter/System5-10Conversion efficiency, wiring
Irradiance below STC levels, shifts from diffuse light, and suboptimal tilt/ add variability, with real-world yields 10-20% below STC predictions in cloudy regions due to lower effective matching. Long-term field data from NREL's PV Fleet confirm these factors yield median first-year PRs around 80%, degrading 0.5%/year from aging but stabilized by O&M.

Temperature and Environmental Effects

The efficiency of photovoltaic (PV) modules declines with increasing cell above the standard test condition of 25°C, primarily due to heightened recombination rates and a reduction in . For cells, the power typically ranges from -0.4% to -0.5% per °C, resulting in output losses of approximately 10-25% under peak operating conditions in hot climates compared to standard ratings. Monocrystalline and modules exhibit coefficients between -0.44% and -0.50% per °C, while thin-film technologies like CdTe or CIGS show slightly lower sensitivity at around -0.3% per °C. Systems in hotter U.S. regions, such as the Southwest, demonstrate roughly twice the annual degradation from effects compared to cooler zones, compounded by soiling and aging. Dust accumulation, or soiling, impedes transmission to the cells, with reported losses ranging from 2-60% depending on and ; environments without regular cleaning suffer the highest reductions due to fine particle influenced by low rainfall and high . Relative exacerbates soiling by promoting particle cohesion via forces, while also accelerating through electrochemical reactions in humid conditions. velocity aids in partial self-cleaning of panels but can simultaneously transport airborne particulates, with net effects varying by direction, speed, and particle size; studies indicate optimal cleaning occurs at moderate winds below 5 m/s, beyond which or redeposition dominates. Precipitation generally improves performance by washing away , though excessive or cover can cause temporary losses exceeding 90% during accumulation. Partial from , , or debris induces mismatch losses in series-connected strings, potentially reducing array output by 30% or more even if only 10% shaded, due to bypass diode activation limits. High variability from clouds or aerosols further modulates real-world yields, with rapid fluctuations causing inverter clipping and thermal cycling that indirectly amplifies temperature-related stresses. In aggregate, these factors can lower field performance to 75-85% of rated capacity annually in temperate zones, dropping below 70% in arid or tropical settings without .

Degradation Mechanisms and Lifespan

Photovoltaic modules experience gradual power degradation primarily through initial rapid losses followed by slower linear decline, with modules typically exhibiting an average annual degradation rate of 0.5% to 1.0% after the first year. This rate varies by technology and environmental conditions, with empirical data from global field studies showing median system-level degradation of 1.00% per year across diverse installations. Light-induced degradation () represents an early mechanism, occurring within the first hours to days of exposure in p-type cells, where boron-oxygen complexes form defects that reduce minority and efficiency by 1-3%. is inherent to Czochralski-grown wafers due to dissolved oxygen and doping, though mitigated in n-type cells or through gettering processes. Potential-induced degradation (PID) arises from voltage biases between module cells and grounded frames or systems, driving sodium ion migration through the encapsulant to the cell surface, shunting junctions and causing up to 30-50% power loss in susceptible modules under high and . PID is exacerbated in utility-scale arrays with negative grounding and has been observed in over 70% of early field failures before mitigation standards like IEC 62804 testing were adopted. Long-term mechanisms include thermal cycling inducing microcracks (reducing output by 1-5% over decades via increased series resistance), encapsulant discoloration from UV exposure (yellowing leading to 5-10% transmittance loss after 20 years), and backsheet from in humid climates. Mechanical stressors like , , or snow loading contribute to cell fractures, detectable via , with cumulative effects compounding to 2-5% additional loss in harsh environments. Module lifespan is conventionally benchmarked against 25-year warranties guaranteeing at least 80% retained capacity, supported by accelerated aging tests and field data showing many installations retaining 85-90% output after 20-30 years in temperate regions. Empirical analyses of over 100,000 systems indicate first-year degradation of 2-3% (encompassing ), stabilizing to 0.4-0.8% annually thereafter for monocrystalline modules, influenced by factors like soiling (reversible 2-5% loss) and inverter clipping. In hot, humid climates, rates can double due to accelerated chemical degradation, with some studies reporting median lifetimes of 15-20 years before uneconomic repair thresholds, though bifacial and PERC cells show improved resilience via reduced /LeTID. Overall, causal factors trace to material interactions under operational stresses, with ongoing advancements in passivation and encapsulants aiming to extend effective lifespan beyond 40 years.

Manufacturing and Supply Chain

Production Processes and Scaling

dominates photovoltaic production, accounting for approximately 95% of global manufacturing as of 2025 due to its established scalability and material abundance. The core production chain begins with purifying metallurgical-grade to electronic-grade polysilicon via the process, involving deposition at over 1,000°C to achieve 99.9999% purity, consuming significant equivalent to 100-150 kWh/kg. This feedstock is then melted in crucibles and crystallized into ingots, primarily using the Czochralski (Cz) method for —where a is dipped into molten at 1,420°C and slowly pulled upward at rates of 1-2 mm/min to form cylindrical boules up to 300 mm in diameter—or for multicrystalline ingots, which is less -intensive but yields lower purity. Ingot processing follows, with squaring, slicing into wafers (typically 150-180 μm thick) using multi-wire saws that achieve kerf losses below 100 μm, and chemical to remove damage layers. Wafer fabrication into cells involves alkaline texturing for pyramid structures to reduce reflectivity, at 800-900°C to create n+ emitters, and deposition of anti-reflective coatings via . Metallization applies silver paste grids on the front (screen-printed at 10-20 μm lines for minimized shading) and aluminum on the back via firing at 700-800°C, forming p+ back surface fields; modern processes incorporate nickel-silver to reduce silver use by up to 80%. Cells are then interconnected into modules via or conductive adhesives, encapsulated in , and framed with and aluminum for durability. Scaling has accelerated through , larger wafer formats (from M10 182 mm to G12 210 mm by 2023), and yield improvements exceeding 99%, driving module costs below $0.20/ by 2024. Global polysilicon capacity expanded nearly 90% in 2023, wafers by 60%, cells nearly doubled, and modules reached 1.5 TW/year by 2024, with controlling over 80% due to integrated supply chains and state-supported overcapacity that outpaced demand growth of 25-30% annually. This expansion follows a where costs halved every decade of cumulative production, from 1 GW in the 2000s to over 1.6 TW installed by end-2023, though it risks gluts and dependency on subsidized exports. Thin-film alternatives like CdTe scale via vapor deposition on substrates but remain under 5% due to efficiency trade-offs.

Global Supply Chain Concentration and Risks

The global photovoltaic (PV) supply chain is highly concentrated, with China accounting for over 80% of manufacturing capacity across key stages including polysilicon production, ingot and wafer fabrication, cell assembly, and module production as of 2024. Specifically, China produced 95% of the world's solar-grade polysilicon in 2024, maintaining a near-monopoly that extends to over 80% of global wafer, cell, and module output. This dominance stems from economies of scale, state subsidies, and integrated clustering in provinces like Jiangsu, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, enabling rapid capacity expansion to 1.8 terawatts (TW) for modules alone projected for 2025, far exceeding global demand. Such concentration has driven down costs but created systemic vulnerabilities, as disruptions in China—responsible for the majority of upstream processes—could halt international deployments critical to energy transitions. Principal risks arise from geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-China trade frictions, including tariffs imposed under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act since 2018 and expanded in 2024, which aim to counter subsidized overcapacity but have increased module prices by up to 20% in affected markets. Dependency on Chinese exports exposes importers to export restrictions or retaliatory measures, as evidenced by 2022 polysilicon shortages triggered by Australian coal bans and U.S. entity list designations, which spiked prices from $10/kg to over $30/kg. Ethical concerns compound these issues, with reports documenting forced labor in Xinjiang-linked polysilicon facilities—accounting for 45% of global supply in 2023—prompting U.S. Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) detentions of over 3,000 tons of solar products by mid-2025 and EU scrutiny under its forced labor regulation. Natural and operational hazards, such as the 2020 explosion at a major Chinese polysilicon plant that idled 10% of national capacity, further highlight single-point failure risks from geographic clustering. Efforts to diversify have accelerated but yielded limited results. The U.S. of 2022 has spurred $20 billion in domestic investments, adding 50 gigawatts (GW) of module capacity by 2025, though upstream segments like polysilicon remain 90% import-reliant. In , the Net-Zero Industry Act targets 40% local content by 2030, yet imports from persist at 95% of modules due to cost gaps exceeding 30%. ’s Production-Linked scheme aims for 100 GW integrated capacity by 2030, but as of 2025, it supplies under 5% globally, constrained by technology gaps and raw material dependencies. Overall, non-Chinese capacity growth to 20% of modules by 2027 per projections does little to alleviate upstream bottlenecks, underscoring persistent risks from incomplete reshoring.

Raw Materials Extraction and Dependencies

photovoltaic modules, which accounted for approximately 99% of global solar PV production capacity as of September 2024, primarily rely on high-purity polysilicon derived from sand and subsequent chemical purification processes. , abundant in silica (SiO2), is extracted through open-pit or underground operations, followed by crushing, washing, and to produce metallurgical-grade via carbothermic reduction in furnaces at temperatures exceeding 1,900°C. This is then upgraded to electronic-grade polysilicon through energy-intensive methods like the Siemens process, involving (SiHCl3) deposition in reactors, consuming substantial electricity—typically 50-100 kWh per kilogram—and generating byproducts such as . Other essential materials include silver for conductive front-side paste in solar cells (approximately 10-20 mg per watt), for interconnect ribbons and back contacts, and aluminum for module frames, all sourced from and primary ores. Global supply chains exhibit extreme concentration, particularly for polysilicon, where held 93% of production capacity by early 2024, up from lower shares pre-2020 due to state-subsidized expansions. 's region alone contributed about 40% of worldwide polysilicon output as of recent IEA assessments, raising concerns over forced labor risks under the , which has disrupted exports and highlighted vulnerabilities to trade restrictions. This dominance stems from low-cost coal-powered enabling competitive , but it exposes the sector to price volatility, as evidenced by 2021-2022 spikes when energy costs rose globally while Chinese output surged to meet demand. Silver demand from PV reached 4,000 metric tons in 2023, representing 14% of global consumption, with projections indicating solar could claim 20% or more by 2030 amid insufficient supply growth, potentially driving prices higher and incentivizing alternatives like metallization. Emerging dependencies include and for thin-film (CdTe) and CIGS modules, though these constitute under 1% of capacity; , a of refining, faces supply limits from declining grades. , integral to wiring and increasingly cells, is deemed critical by the IEA due to its role across clean energy technologies, with PV contributing to rising pressures on global output, projected to require 50% more by 2040 under net-zero scenarios. Efforts to diversify, such as U.S. and EU incentives for domestic polysilicon via the and Net-Zero Industry Act, remain nascent, with non-Chinese capacity under 10% as of 2024, underscoring persistent geopolitical risks from raw material bottlenecks. from end-of-life panels could mitigate extraction needs, potentially supplying 10-20% of silver and by 2030, but current recovery rates hover below 1% due to technological and economic hurdles.

Environmental Lifecycle Assessment

Manufacturing Emissions and Energy Payback

The production of photovoltaic modules, particularly dominant crystalline silicon types, requires substantial upfront energy inputs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mainly from polysilicon refining via the energy-intensive Siemens process, wafer slicing, cell fabrication, and module assembly. Lifecycle assessments attribute 70-90% of total PV system GHG emissions to the manufacturing phase, with operational emissions minimal due to the absence of fuel use. Recent estimates place cradle-to-gate GHG emissions for monocrystalline silicon modules at 250-630 kg CO₂eq per kWp, influenced by electricity grid carbon intensity; production in coal-reliant regions like China, which accounts for over 80% of global capacity, elevates footprints compared to hypothetical low-carbon grids. Innovations such as diamond wire sawing and reduced kerf loss have lowered material demands, contributing to a halving of manufacturing emissions intensity since 2011. The energy payback time (EPBT), defined as the duration for a PV system to offset the invested across its lifecycle (excluding credits), has improved markedly with technological advancements. For modern wafer-based systems, EPBT typically spans 0.5-3.1 years under levels of 1000-1700 kWh/m²/year, with values as low as 1 year in sunny locales like for 20-year-lifetime installations. Thin-film technologies, such as or CIGS, often achieve shorter EPBTs of 0.5-1.5 years due to lower material and processing energy needs, though they represent under 5% of . These figures reflect reductions from prior decades' 3-4 years for multicrystalline , driven by efficiency gains to 20-23%, silicon thickness thinning to ~150 μm, and usage dropping to 2 g/Wp. Variations in EPBT and emissions arise from site-specific factors, including energy mix and installation irradiance; for instance, coal-dominated grids in inflate both by 20-50% relative to European benchmarks in some models, though empirical data gaps have led critics to argue official lifecycle GHG estimates (e.g., IPCC's ~48 g CO₂eq/kWh) underestimate real-world values by 3-5 times when incorporating full Chinese data. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) analyses for U.S. utility-scale systems confirm EPBT under 2 years and lifecycle GHG of 10-36 g CO₂eq/kWh, aligning with or below prior harmonized medians when using recent production data. Ongoing shifts toward low-carbon , such as Canadian Solar's 285 kg CO₂eq/kWp modules via renewable-powered facilities, suggest further declines, but global averages remain tied to 's output scale.

Operational Impacts

During operation, photovoltaic (PV) systems produce without direct emissions of gases, air pollutants, or other chemical effluents, distinguishing them from combustion-based power generation technologies. This zero-emission profile during the use phase contributes minimally to operational environmental burdens in life cycle assessments (LCAs), where impacts are predominantly front-loaded in . Maintenance activities, particularly panel cleaning to remove dust and debris, represent the primary operational input, with water consumption varying by location and climate. In arid or dusty regions, such as deserts hosting utility-scale installations, cleaning can require 10-50 liters of water per panel per session, potentially aggregating to 0.2-1 cubic meter per megawatt-hour (MWh) over a system's lifetime, straining local where is acute. Innovations like waterless robotic or electrostatic methods have emerged to mitigate this, restoring 95-98% of while reducing use by up to 90% compared to traditional high-pressure washing. Utility-scale PV deployments necessitate substantial land areas, averaging 5-10 acres per megawatt of capacity, often sited on shrublands or grasslands, which alters local ecosystems through conversion and fragmentation. Such installations can reduce activity by up to 50% due to barrier effects from panel arrays and , while beneath panels modifies microclimates—lowering temperatures by 3-5°C and increasing humidity—potentially favoring shade-tolerant but disadvantaging sun-dependent pollinators and native . losses are site-specific and often lower than those from extraction, though poor siting on undisturbed habitats exacerbates risks; compatible designs like pollinator-friendly vegetation under panels have demonstrated increased and diversity in some cases. Other operational effects, such as visual landscape alteration or minor electromagnetic fields from inverters, are generally negligible and do not release hazardous materials like under normal conditions, as encapsulation prevents leaching during the typical 25-30 year lifespan. Overall, LCAs indicate that use-phase contributions to environmental impacts remain low, typically under 5% of total lifecycle burdens for PV.

Disposal, Recycling, and Waste Management

Photovoltaic modules typically reach end-of-life after 25-30 years of operation, generating significant waste volumes as deployments scale. According to projections by the (IRENA), cumulative global PV waste could reach 1-4 million tonnes by 2030 and 60-78 million tonnes by 2050, depending on installation growth and loss scenarios, with the majority comprising , aluminum frames, and cells. These estimates underscore the need for scalable strategies, as current annual waste remains low at around 0.2 million tonnes but accelerates with maturing early installations from the 2010s. Disposal practices vary globally, with landfilling predominant in regions lacking mandates, posing environmental risks from leaching of such as lead, (in thin-film variants like CdTe), and into and . Studies indicate that improper landfilling can release these toxics, contaminating ecosystems, though encapsulation in modules limits immediate release compared to other e-wastes. In the United States, end-of-life panels may qualify as under RCRA if tests confirm leaching potential, but exclusions allow diversion from landfills if processed appropriately. Recycling technologies include mechanical separation (shredding and sieving for glass, aluminum, and polymers, recovering over 85% by mass), thermal processes (delaminating encapsulants via heat), and chemical methods (acid leaching for silicon and metals, achieving up to 95% recovery of valuables like silver and copper). Global recycling rates hover around 10%, constrained by economic viability—recycling costs often exceed recovered material values—and insufficient infrastructure, though the market is expanding from USD 0.39-0.49 billion in 2024 toward USD 1.12 billion by 2030. In the European Union, the WEEE Directive enforces extended producer responsibility, targeting 85% collection and 80% recycling rates by mass since 2018, with France achieving 86.81% in 2024 via organized systems. Challenges persist due to module complexity, with encapsulants like EVA complicating and thin-film toxics requiring specialized handling to avoid emissions. Economic analyses reveal that without policy incentives, landfilling remains cheaper, potentially leading to resource loss of recoverable metals worth billions if scaled. Emerging solutions emphasize design-for-recyclability, such as frameless modules or separable adhesives, to boost circularity, alongside R&D for solvent-based separations that minimize energy use. Regulatory expansion beyond the , including producer take-back schemes, is essential to mitigate risks and capture value from secondary materials amid rising arisings.

Economics

Hardware and Installation Costs

Hardware costs for photovoltaic systems primarily encompass solar modules, inverters, and balance-of-system (BOS) components such as racking, wiring, and mounting structures. Globally, crystalline silicon module prices declined 97% from January 2010 to December 2024, reaching mainstream levels of approximately $0.11 per watt in by 2024, while bifacial modules averaged $0.27 per watt. In the United States, average module prices stood at $0.31 per watt DC in Q2 2024, reflecting a 190% premium over global spot prices due to import tariffs and domestic preferences. Inverter costs have similarly decreased with technological advancements, though they represent a smaller share of total hardware expenses. For utility-scale installations, total installed costs averaged $691 per kW globally in 2024, with modules and inverters comprising 35% ($242 per kW), non-module/inverter hardware 33% ($228 per kW), and installation costs 18% ($124 per kW). components, excluding inverters, accounted for 65% of costs in some analyses, highlighting their significance beyond modules amid falling module prices. In the , utility-scale system prices reached a of $1.51 per watt AC in 2024, up slightly from 2018 levels due to rising and soft costs. Residential and commercial installations incur higher per-watt costs, averaging $2.50 to $3.50 per watt DC before incentives in 2024-2025, driven by elevated soft costs like permitting, labor, and customer acquisition in mature markets. Hardware typically forms 40-50% of these totals, with installation labor and overhead comprising the remainder; for instance, a 12 kW residential system costs $25,000 to $33,000. Regional variations persist, with Asian markets achieving lower figures—under $1,000 per kW in —due to efficiencies and reduced labor expenses.
Cost ComponentGlobal Utility-Scale Share (%)Approximate Cost ($/kW, 2024)
Modules & Inverters35242
BOS Hardware (excl. inverters)33228
Installation18124
Cost reductions stem from , with module prices correlating inversely with cumulative installed capacity, though stabilization has occurred post-2020 amid concentrations and policy-induced premiums. In higher-cost regions like the and , BOS and installation expenses are amplified by regulatory hurdles and skilled labor shortages, comprising up to 50% of totals in residential segments. Projections indicate further declines to under $600 per kW by 2026 in , contingent on continued manufacturing efficiencies.

Levelized Cost Calculations and Critiques

The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) metric for photovoltaics calculates the average net present cost per megawatt-hour over the system's lifetime, incorporating upfront capital costs (typically $850–$1,400 per kW for utility-scale installations), fixed and variable operations and maintenance expenses ($11–$14 per kW-year fixed), financing charges, and expected energy output discounted to present value. Key inputs include a project lifetime of 20–35 years, capacity factors ranging from 15–30% (reflecting site-specific solar irradiance and tracking systems), and discount rates of 5–7%, with generation modeled via net AC output after inverter losses. These assumptions yield unsubsidized LCOE estimates for utility-scale PV of $24–$96 per MWh as of 2024, with lower values in optimal southwestern U.S. locations achieving capacity factors near 30% via single-axis tracking.
SourceReport YearUnsubsidized LCOE Range ($/MWh)Capacity Factor RangeLifetime (Years)
202424–9625–30%20–30
EIA (capacity-weighted avg.)202526 (simple avg. 38)Not specified (intermittent)30
Critiques of PV LCOE calculations emphasize their inadequacy for intermittent generation, as they evaluate projects in isolation without incorporating system-level integration costs driven by variability, such as the need for dispatchable , overbuild capacity, or storage to maintain grid reliability. Standard LCOE presumes full utilization of at averaged factors but overlooks declining effective load-carrying capability (ELCC) at higher penetrations—e.g., adding $25–$177 per MWh in firming costs regionally—and externalities like curtailment or transmission reinforcements, which can double or triple apparent economics in real grids exceeding 20–30% variable renewables. Analyses advocating "system LCOE" adjust for these by allocating balancing costs proportionally, revealing PV's true marginal expense rises nonlinearly with scale due to of output variability across sites. Furthermore, comparisons to dispatchable sources like gas combined cycle ($45–$95 per MWh) are flawed under LCOE, as PV delivers zero value during non-sunlit periods or clouds, necessitating redundant capacity that standard metrics undervalue. Inconsistent treatment of subsidies—often excluded in "unsubsidized" claims yet embedded via tax credits in projections—further distorts assessments, with critics noting optimistic capacity factors rarely materialize without ideal siting.

Role of Subsidies and Policy Interventions

Subsidies and policy interventions have been instrumental in driving the rapid expansion of photovoltaic (PV) capacity worldwide, compensating for the technology's historically high upfront costs and challenges that limited market-driven adoption. Feed-in tariffs (), investment tax credits (ITCs), production tax credits (PTCs), and direct grants have lowered financial barriers for developers and consumers, spurring scale and cost reductions. For instance, empirical analyses indicate that consumer subsidies increased adoption by approximately 49% over analyzed periods by holding production costs fixed in counterfactual scenarios. Globally, such policies contributed to solar PV capacity tripling from 2018 to 2023, with annual additions reaching record levels. In Germany, the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), introducing FiTs in 2000, exemplifies policy-driven growth, guaranteeing above-market prices for PV-generated electricity and triggering a surge in installations from negligible levels to over 70 GW by March 2023. This mechanism boosted renewable electricity production share significantly, fostering innovation and employment in the sector while accelerating deployment through long-term price certainty. However, the EEG's subsidies, funded via consumer levies, have imposed substantial fiscal burdens—exceeding hundreds of billions of euros cumulatively—and increasingly benefit higher-income households, as PV systems correlate with wealthier demographics. Similar FiT schemes in other European nations, such as Spain and Italy, yielded rapid capacity additions but led to boom-bust cycles upon abrupt phase-outs, underscoring subsidies' role in creating policy-dependent markets rather than sustainable economics. In the United States, the federal ITC, originally enacted in 1978 at 10% and expanded to 30% under extensions like the of 2022, has directly incentivized investments by allowing dollar-for-dollar deductions of qualified PV expenditures. Data from the show over 752,000 claims in 2023 alone, correlating with quarterly installations like 10.8 GWdc in Q1 2025, though growth has moderated amid policy uncertainties. Projections suggest extending ITCs through 2050 could boost U.S. solar by 10% relative to baselines, highlighting their leverage on private capital. State-level rebates and grants have further amplified effects, with a 10% subsidy increase linked to 1.36–2.55% rises in non-residential capacity in cases like . Critics argue that these interventions distort markets by favoring PV over unsubsidized alternatives, fostering overcapacity and dependency rather than genuine competitiveness. In , state subsidies have propelled dominance in PV manufacturing—producing over 80% of global modules—but resulted in polysilicon sector bloating and export dumping, exacerbating global overcapacity amid 2025 crackdown efforts. Studies contend subsidies warp investment behaviors, leading to inefficient and regressive transfers, as phase-outs in various markets reveal subdued deployment without support. While policies have undeniably scaled production and reduced module prices via cumulative effects, they have also sustained intermittency-masking narratives, with full unsubsidized viability questioned in grid-integrated contexts. from subsidy withdrawals suggests enhanced long-term industry competitiveness through market discipline.

Full System Costs Including Storage and Grid Upgrades

The levelized cost of (LCOE) for utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems standalone ranges from $38 to $78 per megawatt-hour (MWh) unsubsidized in 2025, but integrating battery storage to mitigate significantly increases costs, with PV-plus-storage LCOE estimated at $50 to $131/MWh for a four-hour storage duration. These figures incorporate capital expenditures for panels, inverters, batteries, and balance-of-system components, assuming round-trip efficiencies of approximately 85-87% and partial grid charging for storage (e.g., 25% of battery ). Standalone storage levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for utility-scale systems (100 MW, four-hour duration) falls between $115 and $254/MWh, driven by battery pack costs of $107 to $232 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) plus overhead.
ComponentUnsubsidized LCOE/LCOS (2025, $/MWh)Key Assumptions
Solar PV Standalone38–78Utility-scale, no storage; excludes transmission
Solar PV + 4-Hour Storage50–131Includes grid charging at ~$27/MWh; regional variations (e.g., higher in low-solar areas)
Standalone Battery Storage115–254100 MW/400 MWh; lithium-ion dominant
Grid upgrades for PV integration, including new transmission lines, substations, and equipment, add further expenses not captured in standard LCOE calculations, which assume an infinite-capacity grid without penalties. For high-penetration scenarios (e.g., 20-30% renewables), system-level firming costs—encompassing capacity, overbuilding, and curtailment avoidance—range from $14 to $86/MWh regionally, based on effective load-carrying capability (ELCC) and net cone auctions. U.S. grid modernization projections attribute over $2.5 trillion in upgrades by 2035 partly to accommodating variable renewables, with per-mile transmission costs exceeding $1-2 million for high-voltage lines. Critiques highlight that conventional LCOE metrics systematically understate these externalities, as they exclude the need for redundant generation and network reinforcements required for reliability during low-output periods, potentially doubling effective costs at scale. Battery prices have declined to ~$165/kWh for full systems in 2024 (down 40% year-over-year), yet achieving dispatchable power akin to baseload sources demands multi-hour storage scaled to daily cycles, escalating beyond current four-hour norms.

Deployment and Growth

Terrestrial photovoltaic installations began in the 1970s, building on space applications from the late 1950s when silicon cells powered satellites like in 1958. Early ground-based systems served remote off-grid needs, such as powering microwave towers and navigation buoys, with global cumulative capacity below 1 MW in 1975 and reaching only hundreds of MW by the mid-1980s. Deployment accelerated in the early due to policy measures like Germany's Renewable Energy Sources Act of and Japan's subsidies, fostering market expansion beyond niche uses. Cumulative capacity grew from approximately 5 GW in 2005 to 40 GW by 2010, then to 178 GW by 2015, as efficiencies reduced costs in a pattern where each doubling of capacity correlated with 20-25% module price drops. The and saw exponential scaling, with annual additions rising from about 50 GW in 2015 to over 130 GW by 2020, driven by maturation in and global decarbonization efforts. End-2020 cumulative capacity reached 710 GW, increasing to roughly 1,600 GW by end-2023 amid post-pandemic recovery and priorities. Record-breaking growth continued in , with new installations estimated at 553-601 GW— a 29% rise from 2023—elevating cumulative capacity above 2,200 GW, though estimates vary across sources like IRENA (1,865 GW) and IEA-PVPS due to reporting differences in off-grid and utility-scale segments. dominated additions, accounting for over half of global deployment, followed by contributions from , the , and . As of mid-2025, trends show no abatement, with first-half installations 64% above the prior year's same period, projecting another annual record exceeding GW if sustained, fueled by module oversupply and falling prices despite emerging constraints like grid capacity limits.

Regional Variations and Drivers

China dominates global photovoltaic deployment, accounting for 55% of new installations in 2024 with 329 GW added, bringing its cumulative capacity to approximately 886 GW. This surge stems from state-directed industrial policies, including subsidies and low-cost manufacturing that undercut global competitors by 10-35% in production expenses compared to , the , and . Heavy reliance on coal for energy-intensive silicon processing enables these cost advantages, though it raises supply chain vulnerabilities due to over 80% of global polysilicon and wafer production concentrated in . The installed nearly 50 GW in 2024, a 21% increase from 2023, driven primarily by the 2022 Reduction Act's production and investment tax credits that subsidize domestic manufacturing and deployment. These incentives, totaling tens of billions in projected outlays, have spurred utility-scale projects in sunny southwestern states like and , where insolation exceeds 5 kWh/m²/day, though federal support masks underlying grid integration costs. Cumulative US capacity reached 177 GW by year-end. In , leads with 90 GW cumulative capacity, but regional growth varies: southern nations like and benefit from higher (4-5.5 kWh/m²/day) compared to (2.5-3.5 kWh/m²/day), yet policy uniformity drives deployment across the continent. Early feed-in tariffs under 's EEG law catalyzed initial adoption, but transitions to competitive auctions since 2017 have tempered expansion amid permitting delays and grid bottlenecks, limiting 2024 additions to under 50 GW continent-wide. efforts to diversify supply chains, including tariffs on Chinese imports, aim to counter dependency but increase module costs by 20-30%. India added 97 GW cumulatively by 2024, fueled by government auctions and mandates targeting 500 GW renewables by 2030, leveraging abundant sunlight in and (over 5.5 kWh/m²/day). Localized manufacturing incentives under the Production Linked Incentive scheme seek to reduce import reliance, though land acquisition hurdles and variability constrain utility-scale projects. Emerging markets like and exhibit rapid uptake via export-oriented policies and foreign , but face challenges without commensurate storage development. Key drivers across regions include falling module prices—from $0.30/W in 2023 to under $0.20/W in 2024—amplified by policy interventions, yet causal factors like resource potential explain baseline variations: high-irradiance areas (e.g., , ) achieve lower levelized costs without subsidies, while policy-heavy regions like prioritize deployment over pure economics. Geopolitical shifts, including and derisking from Chinese dominance, may slow short-term growth but foster resilient supply chains.

Applications in Power Systems and Beyond

Photovoltaic systems contribute to systems primarily through utility-scale installations, which generate large volumes of for grid supply, and such as rooftop and commercial systems that offset local demand. Utility-scale solar photovoltaic , often exceeding 100 MW in capacity, feed power directly into transmission networks, with global deployments surpassing 2.2 TW of cumulative installed capacity by the end of 2024. These systems require grid integration technologies like inverters and transformers to synchronize output with grids while maintaining voltage stability, particularly in weak networks where large-scale PV can enhance resilience if properly managed. Distributed PV, encompassing residential and commercial rooftop installations, accounted for 42% of global PV expansion in recent years, enabling consumers to generate and export surplus power via or feed-in tariffs. The distributed solar market, valued at $121.8 billion in 2024, is projected to reach $193.8 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual rate of 5.2%. Such applications reduce transmission losses and support peak shaving when paired with storage, though high penetration demands advanced controls for grid services like frequency regulation. Beyond centralized power systems, photovoltaics enable (BIPV), where modules form part of the , such as facades, roofs, or skylights, generating without dedicated mounting structures. Examples include PV glass windows, shingles, and canopies that replace conventional materials, with deployments in structures like the International School facade. BIPV supports urban production, with products like cushion-integrated panels used in architectural applications for aesthetic and functional power generation. The BIPV market, sized at $23.7 billion in 2023, is expected to expand to $89.8 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 21.2% amid advancements in integration technologies. Off-grid photovoltaic systems power remote areas lacking grid access, serving approximately 560 million people worldwide as of 2024 through standalone panels, mini-grids, and hybrid setups with batteries or diesel backups. These applications include , , and , with the off-grid solar market projected to grow from USD 3.11 billion in 2024 to USD 10.11 billion by 2035 at a 12.51% CAGR, driven by affordability challenges in developing regions. In space applications, photovoltaics provide the primary electricity source for satellites, , and the , converting sunlight into power for sensors, propulsion, and life support without reliance on fuel. employs multi-junction solar cells optimized for the , enduring radiation and thermal extremes, as seen in missions requiring robust, high-efficiency arrays for Mars rovers and orbital platforms. Agrivoltaics combines photovoltaic arrays with , allowing dual for cultivation, , or pollinator habitats beneath elevated panels, which also provide shade to mitigate heat stress on . Deployments demonstrate potential yield increases for shade-tolerant crops and improved , with U.S. projects integrating solar over farmland to balance production and without full land competition.

Challenges and Criticisms

Intermittency and Grid Reliability Issues

Photovoltaic generation is inherently , producing only during daylight hours and subject to fluctuations from , atmospheric conditions, and seasonal variations. This variability results in low capacity factors, typically around 25% for utility-scale solar PV in the United States, compared to over 90% for plants and 50-60% for coal-fired plants. Such intermittency demands compensatory measures like overbuilding capacity or integrating dispatchable sources to maintain grid balance, as solar output cannot be controlled to match demand on short timescales. In grids with high solar penetration, rapid changes in PV output—known as ramp events—challenge system operators to adjust supply quickly, potentially straining reserves and increasing the risk of imbalances. For instance, the (CAISO) experiences a "" where midday net load drops sharply due to abundant solar generation, followed by a steep evening ramp-up requiring up to 13,000 MW of additional power within three hours to offset declining PV output. As California's solar capacity grew to over 30 GW by 2023, this curve deepened, exacerbating the need for flexible ramping resources and leading to increased curtailment of excess during peak production. High PV integration also introduces technical stability issues, including voltage fluctuations and reduced system , as inverter-based solar lacks the rotational mass of traditional synchronous generators that help dampen deviations. In scenarios of rapid cloud passage or sudden demand shifts, these effects can propagate, potentially causing reverse power flows that overload distribution lines and compromise equipment longevity. While no widespread reliability failures have been directly attributed to solar at the national level as of 2022, localized overgeneration and forecasting errors have prompted grid operators to deploy battery storage or to mitigate risks, underscoring the causal link between PV variability and elevated operational complexity. Without sufficient backup from firm, low-carbon sources like nuclear or advanced storage at scale, achieving high reliability becomes increasingly resource-intensive as solar shares exceed 20-30% of generation.

Economic Viability Without Incentives

The unsubsidized (LCOE) for utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems has reached ranges competitive with some dispatchable fossil fuel technologies in locations with high . According to Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy+ Version 18.0 (June 2025), the unsubsidized LCOE for utility-scale solar PV without storage falls between $38 and $78 per MWh, assuming capacity factors of 20–30% and excluding tax credits like the U.S. Investment . This overlaps with the unsubsidized LCOE for gas combined cycle plants at $48–$109 per MWh but remains below at $71–$173 per MWh under similar assumptions. These estimates reflect , operations and maintenance, and fuel (zero for solar) over a project's lifetime, discounted to . However, standard LCOE metrics for intermittent sources like solar PV do not fully capture system-level integration costs, including backup , storage, curtailment, and grid reinforcements required to maintain reliability during periods of low output. explicitly notes that its LCOE analysis excludes risks and grid impacts, which can elevate the effective cost of solar-dominated systems. For instance, incorporating storage raises solar PV's unsubsidized LCOE to $50–$131 per MWh for utility-scale applications with 4-hour duration batteries. Critics further contend that at higher penetration levels (e.g., above 20–30% of grid capacity), the marginal value of additional solar declines due to overgeneration during peak sunlight hours, necessitating costly firm capacity alternatives like gas peakers. Empirical deployment patterns underscore ongoing reliance on incentives for . , solar PV accounted for 61% of utility-scale capacity additions in 2024 (approximately 30 GW), but projections for 2025 indicate a drop to around 50% of additions (33 GW total) amid subsidy phase-down discussions, suggesting unsubsidized growth may decelerate without policy support. A 2025 analysis of U.S. solar found that projects often fail profitability thresholds absent federal or credits, with internal rates of return dropping below hurdles for unsubsidized utility-scale developments. Internationally, viability without incentives is more feasible in high-insolation, low-labor-cost regions like the , where projects such as Saudi Arabia's Sakaka solar plant (300 MW, operational since 2019) achieved LCOE below $0.02/kWh through competitive bidding, though even these benefit from state-backed financing and off-take guarantees akin to implicit subsidies. In contrast, in moderate-irradiance areas like or the northern U.S., unsubsidized residential solar payback periods typically exceed 12–20 years at prevailing retail electricity prices of $0.10–$0.20/kWh, limiting adoption without or rebates. Overall, while technological cost reductions have enabled unsubsidized for utility-scale solar in prime conditions, broader economic viability as a primary power source remains constrained by intermittency-driven system costs and historical dependence, with full dispatchable equivalence requiring advances in affordable storage or hybrid configurations.

Geopolitical and Supply Security Concerns

controls over 80% of global solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing capacity, including key stages such as polysilicon production, , and module assembly, creating significant supply security vulnerabilities for importing nations. This dominance stems from state-supported investments and low-cost production, but exposes global markets to risks of export restrictions, price volatility, and disruptions amid geopolitical tensions, as evidenced by 's historical leverage over rare earth exports. Projections indicate will maintain a leading role in lower-value PV components through 2030, despite diversification efforts elsewhere. A primary concern is the concentration of polysilicon supply, with producing approximately 80% of the world's supply, much of it from province where evidence of state-imposed forced labor involving Uyghur minorities has been documented by multiple investigations. The enacted the (UFLPA) in 2021, presuming goods from are tainted unless proven otherwise, leading to over 1,000 solar shipments detained by October 2022 and continued enforcement into 2025, including additions of 37 Chinese firms to the entity list in January 2025. In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched a Section 232 investigation into polysilicon imports, citing threats from overreliance on foreign sources. Western responses include tariffs, subsidies for domestic production, and reshoring, yet these have not significantly eroded China's , with U.S. solar imports still predominantly from or Chinese-affiliated facilities in . The has proposed forced labor import bans and increased scrutiny on solar supply chains since , but implementation lags, heightening risks of shortages if frictions escalate. Analysts warn that without accelerated diversification—such as expanded production in and —global PV deployment could face bottlenecks, as China's control over upstream materials enables potential strategic withholding similar to past commodity manipulations.

Land, Aesthetic, and Biodiversity Impacts

Utility-scale photovoltaic installations demand substantial areas, with empirical indicating an average of 5 to 10 acres per megawatt of capacity, though recent analyses in regions like report 6.93 acres per megawatt . This footprint arises from the need for panel spacing to minimize shading and accommodate such as inverters and access roads, with total disturbed often lower than the full array area due to setbacks and undeveloped portions. Compared to other sources on a land occupation basis per unit of generated, ground-mounted photovoltaics exhibit higher intensity than nuclear or hydroelectric facilities but lower than or certain crops, though variability in capacity factors—typically 20-25% for PV—amplifies the effective land use per megawatt-hour relative to baseload options like or gas with excluded. Large-scale deployments, such as those projected under high-renewables scenarios, could necessitate 30% more overall for solar and wind combined compared to business-as-usual paths, often competing with or undeveloped habitats and prompting conversions of forests or farmland. Aesthetic impacts stem primarily from the large-scale visual alteration of landscapes, where expansive arrays of reflective panels introduce contrasts in color, form, and scale that disrupt scenic views, particularly in rural or culturally significant areas. Quantitative assessments incorporate factors like visibility from key viewpoints, panel reflectivity causing glare, and reduced landscape fractality, with studies proposing indices to measure these effects objectively. Public opposition frequently cites "visual pollution," as seen in community resistance to projects altering open vistas, though mitigation strategies such as vegetative screening, berms, or integrated designs can reduce prominence. Glare from panels poses additional concerns for nearby roads and aviation, potentially exacerbating safety risks beyond mere aesthetics. Biodiversity effects vary by siting and management but include and direct mortality, with utility-scale solar farms documented to cause bird and fatalities through collisions with panels or towers and thermal injury from "solar flux" where and birds are attracted to heated surfaces mimicking . In , such projects have been described as contributing to an environmental crisis for volant , with peer-reviewed estimates highlighting elevated death rates compared to other . Ground disturbance during construction erodes soils and displaces and , while shading under panels alters microclimates, potentially benefiting some but harming shade-intolerant and . Conversely, solar parks on former can enhance avian diversity and abundance of invertebrate feeders relative to monoculture fields, especially under agrivoltaic approaches that combine cropping with panels to maintain services like . Systematic reviews emphasize that while direct impacts are evident, broader effects depend on avoiding sensitive areas like deserts or wetlands, with inadequate pre-development assessments in some government-backed projects—potentially influenced by policy-driven haste—exacerbating risks to endemic .

Future Developments

Advances in Materials and Efficiency

Crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells have undergone iterative material and architectural improvements, transitioning from basic diffused-junction designs to advanced passivated structures that minimize recombination losses and enhance carrier collection. Passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC) technology, widely adopted since the 2010s, boosted commercial module efficiencies from around 15-18% to over 20% by reflecting light back into the cell and passivating the rear surface. Subsequent innovations include tunnel oxide passivated contact () cells, which insert an ultra-thin layer under a doped polysilicon contact to reduce contact recombination, enabling lab efficiencies above 25% and commercial modules up to 22.5%. Heterojunction technology (), combining with thin layers, achieves open-circuit voltages exceeding 750 mV through superior passivation, with record single-junction efficiencies of 27.3% in cells. Back-contact technologies, such as interdigitated back contact (IBC) and all-back-contact (ABC) designs, are scaling toward commercial production, with advancements enabling lab efficiencies exceeding 27% and bifacial configurations for improved performance. These -centric advances have driven the dominant of monocrystalline and multicrystalline modules, with top commercial products like Maxeon's reaching 22.8% efficiency in 2025. Emerging materials, particularly metal halide perovskites, offer tunable bandgaps and low-temperature processing, facilitating higher efficiencies via multi-junction tandems that stack layers to capture a broader solar spectrum. Single-junction perovskite cells have attained certified efficiencies of 26.7%, surpassing traditional limits through optimized halide compositions and defect passivation strategies like surface treatments with organic molecules. Perovskite-silicon tandems leverage the perovskite's high bandgap (around 1.7 eV) atop 's 1.1 eV absorber, yielding lab records of 34.85% for two-terminal configurations as demonstrated by LONGi in April 2025, with open-circuit voltages over 1.9 V. Triple-junction all-perovskite or perovskite-perovskite- stacks have reached 23.3% on 16 cm² cells, certified in October 2025, by engineering intermediate bandgaps (e.g., 1.5 eV and 0.9 eV layers) and improving interface stability. These tandems theoretically approach 45% under one-sun illumination, though practical yields lag due to current-matching requirements and optical losses. Commercialization of remains constrained by scalability, with tandems entering early production; PV reported 25% for full-size modules in August 2025, marking a breakthrough for deployable high-efficiency panels. Thin-film alternatives like (CIGS) and (CdTe) have stabilized at lab efficiencies of 23.4% and 22.1%, respectively, valued for flexibility and lower material use but trailing in cost-competitiveness. Ongoing material refinements, such as lead-free perovskites or sensitization, aim to address toxicity and stability, with recent passivation advances extending operational lifetimes under accelerated testing to thousands of hours. Overall, NREL's tracking confirms multi-junction concentrator cells at 47.6% as the pinnacle, but one-sun flat-plate records underscore - hybrids as the pathway to surpassing 30% in manufacturable devices.

Integration with Storage and Hybrid Systems

Integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems with battery energy storage systems (BESS) addresses solar intermittency by capturing excess generation during peak sunlight hours for dispatch during low-production periods, enhancing grid reliability and enabling time-shifting of renewable output. DC-coupled configurations, where batteries connect directly to the PV DC bus before inversion, minimize energy losses compared to AC-coupled setups, achieving round-trip efficiencies of approximately 85-90% in modern lithium-ion systems. In 2024, global stationary battery storage deployments surged, with costs declining 33% year-over-year, facilitating widespread PV+BESS adoption; for instance, utility-scale PV-plus-battery projects in the United States represented a significant portion of new capacity, with battery capital costs averaging $458/kWh. By 2025, integrated PV-storage systems reached economic parity in select markets, competing on total system costs rather than generation alone, driven by scale and technological refinements. Utility-scale examples illustrate scalability: in , 21.9 GWh of BESS was added in 2024, much co-located with PV to support renewable curtailment reduction and frequency regulation. Projections indicate that nearly half of global solar capacity could be co-located with storage by 2060, bolstering dispatchable renewable profiles akin to conventional peaker . In the U.S., solar and battery storage accounted for 81% of expected 2025 capacity additions, with over 50% from solar, underscoring hybrid viability for grid modernization. However, integration challenges persist, including BESS degradation from frequent cycling (reducing lifespan to 10-15 years at high depths of discharge) and upfront costs elevating levelized costs by 20-50% without subsidies, though declining module and pack prices mitigate this. Hybrid systems combining PV with or other renewables further diversify output, leveraging complementary diurnal and seasonal profiles—solar peaks midday while onshore often generates nocturnally—to achieve capacity factors exceeding 30-40% in optimal sites. For example, PV- hybrids in regions like show 98% of queued solar and 34% of capacity proposed as integrated plants, improving resource utilization and reducing transmission needs. A modeled 2.5 MW solar- for grid-connected applications demonstrated optimized economics via simulation, with hybrid configurations yielding lower levelized costs than standalone PV due to balanced generation. These s enhance by minimizing variability, though site-specific factors like correlated events can limit complementarity, necessitating advanced and controls for efficient operation.

Scalability Barriers and Realistic Projections

The scalability of photovoltaics faces primary constraints from supply limitations and concentrated global supply chains, particularly for polysilicon, silver, and other critical inputs. controls the majority of polysilicon production capacity, with the world expected to rely almost entirely on Chinese supply for key building blocks through at least 2025, exacerbating vulnerabilities to restrictions, geopolitical tensions, and production disruptions. Silver from photovoltaics already accounts for approximately 20% of global supply, driving rising costs and potential bottlenecks as panel production scales, given limited and capacity. Similarly, shortages in , aluminum, and other metals have emerged amid surging , delaying projects and inflating costs despite overcapacity in modules. High in photovoltaic further impedes rapid expansion, as initial investments significantly influence minimum sustainable module prices and constrain new entrants, particularly in regions seeking diversification. Industry consolidation has led to top manufacturers controlling over 75% of the global module market, potentially allowing leading firms to benefit from increased market share and economies of scale amid competitive pressures. (EROI) analyses highlight systemic limits: while point-of-use EROI for modern silicon panels often exceeds 10:1 under favorable conditions, full-system boundaries—including balance-of-system components, maintenance, and grid integration—yield harmonized values around 8-10:1, approaching the approximate minimum threshold (10:1) for sustaining complex societies without net energy deficits. Scaling photovoltaics to very high penetration levels (e.g., >50% of ) risks diluting aggregate EROI below viable minima unless paired with high-EROI storage or dispatchable sources, as demands energy-intensive backups that erode net returns. Realistic projections temper optimistic narratives of , with global installations reaching 554-602 GWdc in 2024 for a cumulative capacity of 2.2 TWdc, but annual additions forecasted to moderate to 16% growth (around 698 GW in 2025) due to supply gluts, trade barriers, and integration challenges. Continued growth in global and overseas demand is projected, with solar PV expected to drive the majority of renewable capacity expansions through 2030. The anticipates solar photovoltaics driving 80% of renewable capacity additions through 2030, yet this assumes continued cost declines, policy support, and unhindered material access—factors vulnerable to the aforementioned constraints, potentially capping penetration at 20-30% of global without transformative advances in storage or overbuild strategies. National Renewable Energy Laboratory models similarly project utility-scale photovoltaic capacity factors and costs improving modestly, but emphasize that grid-scale deployment hinges on resolving diversification and EROI trade-offs to avoid deployment plateaus.

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