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Six-year itch
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Six-year itch
The six-year itch, according to political scientists, is the pattern which takes place during a U.S. president's sixth year in office. This year is characterized by the nation's disgruntled attitude towards the president and their political party. During this time, there is a midterm election and the incumbent president's party usually loses a significant number of seats in Congress.
The term is derived from the phrase "seven-year itch", referring to a supposed pattern that relationships often sour after seven years of marriage, and the 1955 film of the same name. One of the earliest uses of the term in politics was by Republican strategist Kevin Phillips in a nationally syndicated 1973 column which looked ahead to the 1974 midterms.
Prior to Reconstruction, the six-year itch saw the president's party gain seats in one house, while losing seats in the other house. Presidents before Reconstruction whose party had this occur:
Democratic-Republican Thomas Jefferson was the only two-term president before Reconstruction not to have this occur. In 1806, his party gained 2 seats in the House and gained 1 seat in the Senate. Also, the Republican Party saw strong gains in the midterms of 1866, although Andrew Johnson, a former Democrat who had been elected as Abraham Lincoln's vice president on the National Union ticket, was president at the time. The Republicans gained 40 seats in the House and 18 seats in the Senate (the largest swing in the history of the Senate).
After Reconstruction, the six-year itch saw the president's party consistently lose seats in both houses. Presidents since Reconstruction whose party had this occur:
*: The losses by the president's party resulted in the other party gaining control of this chamber.
^: Although the president's party lost seats, this chamber was already under the control of the opposition party.
Democrat Bill Clinton is the only two-term president since Reconstruction not to have this occur. In 1998, his party gained 5 seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate was unchanged (the smallest swing in the Senate's history). His party was uniquely in the minority in both houses of Congress and remained so after the elections.
On only three occasions has the six-year itch caused the president's party to lose control of Congress completely: Grover Cleveland in 1894, Woodrow Wilson in 1918, and George W. Bush in 2006. Conversely, only three presidents saw their parties maintain control of Congress even after the six-year itch: Democrats Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1938, Harry S. Truman in 1950, and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1966. Only two presidents already had a Congress that was completely dominated by the opposition party by the time of the six-year itch: Republicans Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1958 and Richard Nixon (Gerald Ford at the time of the elections) in 1974.
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Six-year itch
The six-year itch, according to political scientists, is the pattern which takes place during a U.S. president's sixth year in office. This year is characterized by the nation's disgruntled attitude towards the president and their political party. During this time, there is a midterm election and the incumbent president's party usually loses a significant number of seats in Congress.
The term is derived from the phrase "seven-year itch", referring to a supposed pattern that relationships often sour after seven years of marriage, and the 1955 film of the same name. One of the earliest uses of the term in politics was by Republican strategist Kevin Phillips in a nationally syndicated 1973 column which looked ahead to the 1974 midterms.
Prior to Reconstruction, the six-year itch saw the president's party gain seats in one house, while losing seats in the other house. Presidents before Reconstruction whose party had this occur:
Democratic-Republican Thomas Jefferson was the only two-term president before Reconstruction not to have this occur. In 1806, his party gained 2 seats in the House and gained 1 seat in the Senate. Also, the Republican Party saw strong gains in the midterms of 1866, although Andrew Johnson, a former Democrat who had been elected as Abraham Lincoln's vice president on the National Union ticket, was president at the time. The Republicans gained 40 seats in the House and 18 seats in the Senate (the largest swing in the history of the Senate).
After Reconstruction, the six-year itch saw the president's party consistently lose seats in both houses. Presidents since Reconstruction whose party had this occur:
*: The losses by the president's party resulted in the other party gaining control of this chamber.
^: Although the president's party lost seats, this chamber was already under the control of the opposition party.
Democrat Bill Clinton is the only two-term president since Reconstruction not to have this occur. In 1998, his party gained 5 seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate was unchanged (the smallest swing in the Senate's history). His party was uniquely in the minority in both houses of Congress and remained so after the elections.
On only three occasions has the six-year itch caused the president's party to lose control of Congress completely: Grover Cleveland in 1894, Woodrow Wilson in 1918, and George W. Bush in 2006. Conversely, only three presidents saw their parties maintain control of Congress even after the six-year itch: Democrats Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1938, Harry S. Truman in 1950, and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1966. Only two presidents already had a Congress that was completely dominated by the opposition party by the time of the six-year itch: Republicans Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1958 and Richard Nixon (Gerald Ford at the time of the elections) in 1974.
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