Valence shell electron pair repulsion (VSEPR) theory (/ˈvɛspər, vəˈsɛpər/ VESP-ər, və-SEP-ər) is a model used in chemistry to predict the geometry of individual molecules from the number of electron pairs surrounding their central atoms. It is also named the Gillespie-Nyholm theory after its two main developers, Ronald Gillespie and Ronald Nyholm but it is also called the Sidgwick-Powell theory after earlier work by Nevil Sidgwick and Herbert Marcus Powell.

The premise of VSEPR is that the valence electron pairs surrounding an atom tend to repel each other. The greater the repulsion, the higher in energy (less stable) the molecule is. Therefore, the VSEPR-predicted molecular geometry of a molecule is the one that has as little of this repulsion as possible. Gillespie has emphasized that the electron-electron repulsion due to the Pauli exclusion principle is more important in determining molecular geometry than the electrostatic repulsion.

The insights of VSEPR theory are derived from topological analysis of the electron density of molecules. Such quantum chemical topology (QCT) methods include the electron localization function (ELF) and the quantum theory of atoms in molecules (AIM or QTAIM).

The idea of a correlation between molecular geometry and number of valence electron pairs (both shared and unshared pairs) was originally proposed in 1939 by Ryutaro Tsuchida in Japan, and was independently presented in a Bakerian Lecture in 1940 by Nevil Sidgwick and Herbert Powell of the University of Oxford. In 1957, Ronald Gillespie and Ronald Sydney Nyholm of University College London refined this concept into a more detailed theory, capable of choosing between various alternative geometries.

VSEPR theory is used to predict the arrangement of electron pairs around central atoms in molecules, especially simple and symmetric molecules. A central atom is defined in this theory as an atom which is bonded to two or more other atoms, while a terminal atom is bonded to only one other atom. For example, in the molecule methyl isocyanate (H₃C-N=C=O), the two carbons and one nitrogen are central atoms, and the three hydrogens and one oxygen are terminal atoms. The geometry of the central atoms and their non-bonding electron pairs in turn determine the geometry of the larger whole molecule.

The number of electron pairs in the valence shell of a central atom is determined after drawing the Lewis structure of the molecule, and expanding it to show all bonding groups and lone pairs of electrons. In VSEPR theory, a double bond or triple bond is treated as a single bonding group. The sum of the number of atoms bonded to a central atom and the number of lone pairs formed by its nonbonding valence electrons is known as the central atom's steric number.

The electron pairs (or groups if multiple bonds are present) are assumed to lie on the surface of a sphere centered on the central atom and tend to occupy positions that minimize their mutual repulsions by maximizing the distance between them. The number of electron pairs (or groups), therefore, determines the overall geometry that they will adopt. For example, when there are two electron pairs surrounding the central atom, their mutual repulsion is minimal when they lie at opposite poles of the sphere. Therefore, the central atom is predicted to adopt a linear geometry. If there are 3 electron pairs surrounding the central atom, their repulsion is minimized by placing them at the vertices of an equilateral triangle centered on the atom. Therefore, the predicted geometry is trigonal. Likewise, for 4 electron pairs, the optimal arrangement is tetrahedral.

As a tool in predicting the geometry adopted with a given number of electron pairs, an often used physical demonstration of the principle of minimal electron pair repulsion utilizes inflated balloons. Through handling, balloons acquire a slight surface electrostatic charge that results in the adoption of roughly the same geometries when they are tied together at their stems as the corresponding number of electron pairs. For example, five balloons tied together adopt the trigonal bipyramidal geometry, just as do the five bonding pairs of a PCl₅ molecule.