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NBA draft lottery
NBA draft lottery
NBA draft lottery
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In 1992 and 1993, the Orlando Magic famously received the first overall selection in back-to-back years. In 1992, the Magic would draft Shaquille O'Neal (left). In 1993, the Magic selected Chris Webber first overall but traded Webber's draft rights for Anfernee Hardaway (right).

The NBA draft lottery is an annual event held by the National Basketball Association (NBA), in which the teams who had missed the playoffs the previous year participate in a lottery process to determine the draft order in the NBA draft. The NBA draft lottery started in 1985. In the NBA draft, the teams obtain the rights to amateur U.S. college basketball players and other eligible players, including international players. The lottery winner would get the first selection in the draft. A lottery pick denotes a draft pick whose position is determined through the lottery, while a non-playoff team involved in the process is often called a lottery team.

Under the current rules, only the top four picks are decided by the lottery, and are chosen from the 14 teams that do not make the playoffs. The team with the worst record, or the team that holds the draft rights of the team with the worst record, has the best chance to obtain a higher draft pick. After the top four positions are selected (from the lottery slotting system), the remainder of the first-round draft order is in inverse order of the win–loss record for the remaining teams, or the teams who originally held the rights if they were traded. The lottery does not determine the draft order in the subsequent round of the draft.

After the 2019 draft, the NBA changed the lottery odds (the bottom three teams will all have an equal 14% chance of winning the top pick) and increased the number of teams selected in the lottery from three to four.

History

[edit]

1947–1965: Territorial picks

[edit]
Further information: NBA territorial pick

In the earlier drafts, the teams would draft in reverse order of their win–loss record. However, a special territorial-pick rule allowed a team to draft a player from its local area. If a team decided to use its territorial pick, it forfeited its first-round pick in the draft.[1] The territorial pick, if used, would happen before the first pick in the draft.

1966–1984: Coin flip

[edit]

In 1966, the NBA revamped its draft system, and introduced a coin flip between the worst teams in each conference to determine who would obtain the first overall draft pick. The team who lost the coin flip would get the second pick, and the rest of the first-round picks were determined in reverse order of each team's win–loss record.

While the coin flip system gave the worst teams in each conference an equal chance to have the first draft pick, if the two worst teams overall were in the same conference, the second-worst team overall would have no chance of obtaining the first draft pick.[1]

1985–1989: Early lottery system

[edit]

After the 1984 coin flip, which was won by the Houston Rockets, the NBA introduced the lottery system to counter the accusations that the Rockets and several other teams were tanking by deliberately losing their remaining regular season games in order to secure the worst record and consequently the chance to obtain the first pick.[2][3] The lottery system involved a random drawing of an envelope from a hopper. Inside each of the envelopes was the name of a non-playoff team. The team whose envelope was drawn first would get the first pick. The process was then repeated until the rest of the lottery picks were determined. In this system, each non-playoff team had an equal chance to obtain the first pick. The rest of the first-round picks were determined in reverse order of the win–loss record.[4]

Starting from 1987, the NBA modified the lottery system so that the first three picks were determined by the lottery. After the three envelopes were drawn, the remaining non-playoff teams would select in reverse order of their win–loss record. This meant that the team with the worst record could receive no worse than the fourth selection, and the second-worst team could pick no lower than fifth, and so on.[5][6]

The New York Knicks were the first winner of the lottery in 1985. They selected Georgetown University standout Patrick Ewing with their first overall pick. However, speculation arose that the NBA had rigged the lottery so that the Knicks would be assured to get the first pick.[2][3][7] Even though the envelope system was highly criticized, it was used until 1989 before being replaced by the weighted lottery system in 1990.[8]

Since 1990: Weighted lottery system

[edit]

In 1990, the NBA changed the format of the lottery to give the team with the worst record the best chance of landing the first pick. The worst non-playoff team that season would have 11 chances, out of 66, to obtain the first pick. The second worst would have 10 chances, and so on. Similarly to the previous system, the weighted lottery system was also used only to determine the first three picks, while the rest of the teams selected in reverse order of their win–loss records.[9]

Despite the weighted odds, the Orlando Magic managed to win the lottery in 1993 with only one chance to obtain the first pick as it was the best non-playoff team in the previous season. In October 1993, the NBA modified the lottery system to give the team with the worst record a higher chance to win the draft lottery and to decrease the better teams' chances to win. The new system increased the chances of the worst team obtaining the first pick in the draft from 16.7 percent to 25 percent, while decreasing the chances of the best non-playoff team from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent.

In the new system, 14 numbered table tennis balls were used. Then, a four-number combination from the 14 balls were drawn to determine the lottery winner. Prior to the draft, the NBA assigns 1,000 possible combinations to the non-playoff teams (the 11–12–13–14 combination is ignored and redrawn). The process was then repeated to determine the second and third pick.[1] The table below shows the lottery chances and the probabilities for each team to win the first pick in the weighted lottery system in 1993 and 1994 drafts.[10]

In 2014, the NBA Board of Governors voted on a proposed reform to the lottery.[11] If the proposed changes passed, the four worst teams in the league would have been given identical odds (around 11 percent) at winning the top pick. The fifth team would have a 10 percent chance and the odds would decrease for each team picking after.[12] The proposed changes were designed to disincentivize having the worst record in the league (at the time, the worst team was given a 25% chance at the top pick) and keep teams competitive throughout the entire season. The final vote was 17–13 in favor of the reform, short of the 23 votes in favor required to push the change through.[13]

In 2016, Dikembe Mutombo made people question the draft's legitimacy when he prematurely tweeted a congratulatory message to the Philadelphia 76ers for receiving the first pick hours before the lottery was conducted. Philadelphia did indeed win the first overall pick.[14] Further questions were raised when the NBA draft revealed that every spot remained exactly the same as it was before the event took place, which was the first occurrence in draft lottery history. A year later, Lakers executive Magic Johnson raised even further questions about the draft process with him assuring head coach Luke Walton that the Lakers would acquire a top-3 pick for the 2017 NBA draft after an interview Walton had on May 4, 2017, twelve days before the draft lottery commenced and moved up to the second pick.[15]

In response to teams like the Philadelphia 76ers deliberately seeking high-loss season records in order to improve their draft odds, beginning with the 2019 NBA draft the NBA implemented a new lottery system giving the worst three teams equal odds at the first overall pick and expanding the lottery to the top four picks (up from the top three picks).[16] As with the changes proposed in 2014, these changes were intended to disincentivize high-loss seasons by flattening the odds of getting the top pick and increasing the likelihood of the worst teams having to pick later in the draft.

1993 draft lottery 1994 draft lottery
Team 1992–93
record		 Chances
(out of 66)		 Probability Team 1993–94
record		 Chances
(out of 1,000)		 Probability
1 Dallas 11–71 11 16.67% Dallas 13–69 250 25.00%
2 Minnesota 19–63 10 15.15% Detroit 20–62 164 16.40%
3 Washington 22–60 9 13.64% Minnesota 20–62 164 16.40%
4 Sacramento 25–57 8 12.12% Milwaukee 20–62 163 16.30%
5 Philadelphia 26–56 7 10.61% Washington 24–58 94 9.40%
6 Milwaukee 28–54 6 9.09% Philadelphia 25–57 66 6.60%
7 Golden State 34–48 5 7.58% L.A. Clippers 27–55 44 4.40%
8 Denver 36–46 4 6.06% Sacramento 28–54 27 2.70%
9 Miami 36–46 3 4.55% Boston 32–50 15 1.50%
10 Detroit 40–42 2 3.03% L.A. Lakers 33–49 8 0.80%
11 Orlando 41–41 1 1.52% Charlotte 41–41 5 0.50%

In 1995, the NBA had an agreement with the two expansion franchises, the Toronto Raptors and the Vancouver Grizzlies that neither team would be eligible to obtain the first overall pick in the 1996, 1997 and 1998 drafts. The Raptors won the 1996 lottery but were forced to settle for the second pick. Another combination was drawn and resulted in the Philadelphia 76ers getting the first pick.[17] Two years later, the Grizzlies won the lottery and likewise had to pick second in the draft, while the L.A. Clippers obtained the first pick.[18] The Raptors did not pick first until 2006, when they won the lottery as the fifth-worst non-playoff team. The Grizzlies have yet to hold the first selection.

Process

[edit]

The lottery is normally held in the first or second round of the NBA Playoffs, typically during the first or second round of the main playoffs in May.

The pool of lottery contestants consists of the teams who failed to qualify for that season's postseason. Since the expansion of postseason from 16 to 20 teams with a Page-McIntyre tournament to eliminate four teams, the four teams eliminated in the Page-McIntyre system are also draft lottery eligible. They are seeded in order from worst record to best, with each team's seed determining the odds it will have of winning one of the top four draft picks.

The winners of the top four picks are determined by the following process, beginning with the first draft pick. Fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1–14 are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected one at a time from the lot. The balls are placed in the machine for 20 seconds to randomize before the first ball is drawn. The remaining three balls are drawn after remixing for 10 seconds. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers are drawn is immaterial; e.g., a drawing of 1–2–3–4 in that order is the same as 4–1–3–2.

There are a total of 1,001 possible combinations of four balls numbered 1 through 14, with one combination (balls 11–12–13–14, regardless of order) being deemed invalid: the balls are redrawn if this combination is drawn.

The remaining 1,000 combinations are distributed amongst the lottery contestants according to their seed's assigned odds. For example, because each of the top 3 seeds has a 14% chance of winning the top pick, they are each assigned 140 of the 1,000 possible winning combinations.

The balls drawn in determining each of the first four picks are returned to the lottery machine and can be drawn again. However, a team generally cannot win multiple picks, so the drawing of a combination assigned to a team who has already won a pick will be ignored and redrawn.

The exception to this rule applies where the winner of the lottery pick acquired the pick via trade. When a lottery team trades its first pick to another team, the recipient of the pick assumes the seed "earned" by the original owner of the pick, unless the terms of the trade provide otherwise. When a lottery team trades its first pick to another team that missed the playoffs, the recipient receives the seed of the team who traded it away as well as the seed determined by its own record (unless it also traded its first pick). This is the only situation in which a team can win multiple lottery picks. Trades are also the only way in which postseason teams can win a lottery pick; however, with the play-in tournament, the four teams eliminated in the first stage of postseason can win a lottery pick, meaning in theory a team as high as the No. 7 seed in a conference could hold a lottery pick (provided they lose both the 7–8 game and the loser vs winner of 9–10 game); the 2024 Atlanta Hawks, which lost the first stage 9–10 game, were the first team to make the postseason and be one of the four teams eliminated in the first stage tournament to win a lottery pick.

The lottery is conducted with witnesses (from the accounting firm Ernst & Young) auditing the process to verify that it is conducted in accordance with the rules.

Prior to the 2019 draft, after the first three teams had been determined, the remaining picks were determined by regular season record with the worst teams getting the highest picks: this assured each team that it could drop no more than three spots from its projected draft position.

Since the 2019 draft, the number of lottery winners was increased from 3 to 4, with the remaining picks still assigned based on regular season record, meaning a team can drop no more than four spots from its seeded position to its actual draft position.

Chances of winning

[edit]

Since the 2019 draft, the odds of each seed winning the first pick are:

  1. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
  2. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance
  3. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance
  4. 125 combinations, 12.5% chance
  5. 105 combinations, 10.5% chance
  6. 90 combinations, 9.0% chance
  7. 75 combinations, 7.5% chance
  8. 60 combinations, 6.0% chance
  9. 45 combinations, 4.5% chance
  10. 30 combinations, 3.0% chance
  11. 20 combinations, 2.0% chance
  12. 15 combinations, 1.5% chance
  13. 10 combinations, 1.0% chance
  14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

The following table lists the chance for each seed to get specific picks, beginning with the 2019 draft, if there were no ties.

Seed Chances 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 140 14.00% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 47.86%
2 140 14.00% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 27.84% 20.02%
3 140 14.00% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 14.84% 26.00% 7.02%
4 125 12.50% 12.23% 11.89% 11.46% 7.24% 25.74% 16.74% 2.19%
5 105 10.50% 10.54% 10.56% 10.53% 2.22% 19.61% 26.74% 8.68% 0.62%
6 90 9.00% 9.20% 9.41% 9.62% - 8.62% 29.77% 20.55% 3.68% 0.15%
7 75 7.50% 7.80% 8.14% 8.52% - - 19.72% 34.11% 12.88% 1.30% 0.03%
8 60 6.00% 6.34% 6.74% 7.22% - - - 34.47% 32.10% 6.75% 0.38% <0.01%
9 45 4.50% 4.83% 5.23% 5.71% - - - - 50.72% 25.90% 3.01% 0.09% <0.01%
10 30 3.00% 3.27% 3.60% 4.01% - - - - - 65.90% 18.99% 1.20% 0.02% <0.01%
11 20 2.00% 2.20% 2.45% 2.76% - - - - - - 77.59% 12.60% 0.40% <0.01%
12 15 1.50% 1.66% 1.86% 2.10% - - - - - - - 86.10% 6.70% 0.07%
13 10 1.00% 1.11% 1.25% 1.43% - - - - - - - - 92.88% 2.34%
14 5 0.50% 0.56% 0.63% 0.72% - - - - - - - - - 97.59%

In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination. The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first four picks via the lottery. For example, in 2020, the New Orleans Pelicans and the Sacramento Kings tied for the 12th-worst record (due to the COVID-19 suspension of the 2019–20 NBA season, only the record as of March 12, 2020 was considered for lottery purposes). The average of the 12th and 13th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 12 combinations (the average of 15 and 10). A coin flip was used to break the tie for the lottery position and assign the extra lottery combination. Sacramento won, giving them the 12th-best lottery odds and New Orleans 13th best. They received the 12th and 13th picks, respectively, after neither was drawn in the lottery. The order was reversed in the second round as New Orleans received the 42nd pick and Sacramento the 43rd.

Lottery ceremony

[edit]
See also: National Basketball Association criticisms and controversies
External videos
video icon 2023 NBA Draft Lottery Drawing (actual drawing of the ping-pong balls). NBA's official YouTube channel. May 16, 2023.
video icon 2023 NBA Draft Lottery results (televised ceremony of the order). NBA's official YouTube channel. May 16, 2023.

The drawing of the ping-pong balls is conducted in private, though observed by independent auditors and representatives from each team. The results are subsequently presented in a televised unveiling (formerly broadcast as a short ceremony prior to or during halftime of an NBA playoff game, but since the mid-2010s, presented as an hour-long special by ESPN), in which the order of the lottery is announced in reverse order, from the fourteenth selection to the first. Representatives from each lottery team are present at the lottery ceremony.

The decision of not showing the ping-pong balls live has fueled speculation that the NBA occasionally fixes the draft lottery if it can benefit the league. The speculation originated with the 1985 draft lottery that sent Patrick Ewing to New York, with the theory being that the NBA wanted to send the best player in the draft to New York to increase ratings in a large television market. At that time, the NBA used seven envelopes in a tumbler representing the seven teams with the worst record. Some have speculated[19][20][21] that the envelope containing the Knicks logo was refrigerated beforehand, enabling David Stern to recognize and select it. Afterward, the Draft Lottery Format was changed to the current ping-pong ball lottery in a private room with team representatives. However, conspiracy theories still persist regarding the annual outcome of the lottery.[22][23][24][25]

Lottery winners

[edit]
Visual representation of the following table

The largest upset in the lottery occurred in 1993 when the Magic won the lottery with just a 1.5% chance to win. The second-largest upsets occurred in 2008 and 2014 when the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers both won their respective lotteries with just a 1.7% chance.[26] In 1999, the Charlotte Hornets also overcame long odds in the draft lottery when they won the third pick despite having the best record among all non-playoff teams. The Hornets only had a 1.83% chance of winning a top-three pick.[27] Since the lottery was introduced in 1985, only 21 of 30 worst NBA teams have won the lottery. The Los Angeles Clippers have won five lotteries, although two of them were conveyed to other teams in trades prior to the lottery. The Magic rank second, having held the first overall pick four times. The Cavaliers, Brooklyn Nets and San Antonio Spurs are third with three lottery wins each. Since the weighted lottery system was introduced in 1990, only seven teams with the worst record went on to win the lottery while only four teams with the second-worst record have won the lottery.

Since the introduction of the draft lottery in 1985, seven teams have never won the first pick neither via lottery or trade: the Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies (joined as expansion team in 1995; previously located in Vancouver), Miami Heat (joined as expansion team in 1988), Oklahoma City Thunder (formerly Seattle SuperSonics), and Utah Jazz. Furthermore, the Boston Celtics have never won the lottery with their own pick, but did own the #1 pick in the 2017 draft at the time of the lottery via a previous trade with the Brooklyn Nets, before subsequently trading that pick to the Philadelphia 76ers a few days before the draft.

Year Team Previous season
record 		Lottery
chances 		Probability Player selected
1985 New York Knicks 24–58 (3rd worst) 1 (out of 7) 14.29%[a] Patrick Ewing
1986 Los Angeles Clippers
(conveyed to the Cleveland Cavaliers via Philadelphia 76ers)[b] 		32–50 (7th worst) 1 (out of 7) 14.29%[a] Brad Daugherty
1987 San Antonio Spurs 28–54 (4th worst) 1 (out of 7) 14.29%[a] David Robinson
1988 Los Angeles Clippers 17–65 (worst) 1 (out of 7) 14.29%[a] Danny Manning
1989 Sacramento Kings 27–55 (6th worst) 1 (out of 9) 11.11%[c] Pervis Ellison
1990 New Jersey Nets 17–65 (worst) 11 (out of 66) 16.67% Derrick Coleman
1991 Charlotte Hornets 26–56 (5th worst) 7 (out of 66) 10.61% Larry Johnson
1992 Orlando Magic 21–61 (2nd worst) 10 (out of 66) 15.15% Shaquille O'Neal
1993 Orlando Magic
(conveyed to Golden State on draft night) 		41–41 (11th worst) 1 (out of 66) 1.52% Chris Webber
1994 Milwaukee Bucks 20–62 (T–2nd worst) 163 (out of 1,000) 16.30% Glenn Robinson
1995 Golden State Warriors 26–56 (5th worst) 94 (out of 1,000) 9.40% Joe Smith
1996 Philadelphia 76ers 18–64 (2nd worst) 200 (out of 593)[d] 33.73% Allen Iverson
1997 San Antonio Spurs 20–62 (3rd worst) 157 (out of 727)[d] 21.60% Tim Duncan
1998 Los Angeles Clippers 17–65 (3rd worst) 157 (out of 696)[d] 22.56% Michael Olowokandi
1999 Chicago Bulls 13–37[e] (3rd worst) 157 (out of 1,000) 15.70% Elton Brand
2000 New Jersey Nets 31–51 (7th worst) 44 (out of 1,000) 4.40% Kenyon Martin
2001 Washington Wizards 19–63 (3rd worst) 157 (out of 1,000) 15.70% Kwame Brown
2002 Houston Rockets 28–54 (5th worst) 89 (out of 1,000) 8.90% Yao Ming
2003 Cleveland Cavaliers 17–65 (T–worst) 225 (out of 1,000) 22.50% LeBron James
2004 Orlando Magic 21–61 (worst) 250 (out of 1,000) 25.00% Dwight Howard
2005 Milwaukee Bucks 30–52 (6th worst) 63 (out of 1,000) 6.30% Andrew Bogut
2006 Toronto Raptors 27–55 (5th worst) 88 (out of 1,000) 8.80% Andrea Bargnani
2007 Portland Trail Blazers 32–50 (6th worst) 53 (out of 1,000) 5.30% Greg Oden
2008 Chicago Bulls 33–49 (9th worst) 17 (out of 1,000) 1.70% Derrick Rose
2009 Los Angeles Clippers 19–63 (T–2nd worst)[f] 177 (out of 1,000) 17.70% Blake Griffin
2010 Washington Wizards 26–56 (5th worst) 103 (out of 1,000) 10.30% John Wall
2011 Los Angeles Clippers
(conveyed to the Cleveland Cavaliers)[g] 		32–50 (8th worst) 28 (out of 1,000) 2.80% Kyrie Irving
2012 New Orleans Hornets 21–45[h] (T–3rd worst) 137 (out of 1,000) 13.70% Anthony Davis
2013 Cleveland Cavaliers 24–58 (3rd worst) 156 (out of 1,000) 15.60% Anthony Bennett
2014 Cleveland Cavaliers
(later traded to Minnesota before playing) 		33–49 (9th worst) 17 (out of 1,000) 1.70% Andrew Wiggins
2015 Minnesota Timberwolves 16–66 (worst) 250 (out of 1,000) 25.00% Karl-Anthony Towns
2016 Philadelphia 76ers 10–72 (worst) 250 (out of 1,000) 25.00% Ben Simmons
2017 Brooklyn Nets
(conveyed to the Philadelphia 76ers via the Boston Celtics) 		20–62 (worst) 250 (out of 1,000) 25.00% Markelle Fultz
2018 Phoenix Suns 21–61 (worst) 250 (out of 1,000) 25.00% Deandre Ayton
2019 New Orleans Pelicans 33–49 (T–7th worst) 60 (out of 1,000) 6.00% Zion Williamson
2020 Minnesota Timberwolves 19–45[i] (3rd worst) 140 (out of 1,000) 14.00% Anthony Edwards
2021 Detroit Pistons 20–52[j] (2nd worst) 140 (out of 1,000) 14.00% Cade Cunningham
2022 Orlando Magic 22–60 (2nd worst) 140 (out of 1,000) 14.00% Paolo Banchero
2023 San Antonio Spurs 22–60 (T–2nd worst) 140 (out of 1,000) 14.00% Victor Wembanyama
2024 Atlanta Hawks 36–46 (9th worst) 30 (out of 1,000) 3.00% Zaccharie Risacher
2025 Dallas Mavericks 39–43 (11th worst) 18 (out of 1,000) 1.80% Cooper Flagg
Notes
  1. ^ a b c d From 1985 to 1988, each of the 7 non-playoff teams had an equal chance to win the lottery, i.e. 14.29%.
  2. ^ The Philadelphia 76ers obtained Los Angeles Clippers' first-round pick in a previous trade on October 6, 1979 that sent Joe Bryant to the Clippers.[28] On June 16, 1986, after the lottery and a day before the draft, the 76ers traded the first pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for Roy Hinson.[29]
  3. ^ In 1989, each of the 9 non-playoff teams had an equal chance to win the lottery, i.e. 11.11%.
  4. ^ a b c The Toronto Raptors and the Vancouver Grizzlies were not eligible to win the lottery in 1996, 1997 and 1998 due to their expansion agreement. Therefore, their lottery combinations for the first pick were excluded.
  5. ^ Due to the 1998–99 NBA lockout, the season was shortened to 50 games per team.[30]
  6. ^ The Los Angeles Clippers and the Washington Wizards had identical 19–63 records for 2nd-worst record in the NBA. However, the Wizards won the tiebreaker and were awarded one extra lottery combination.[31]
  7. ^ The Cleveland Cavaliers had two lottery picks, their own pick and the Los Angeles Clippers' pick. The Cavaliers obtained the Clippers' first-round pick from a previous trade on February 24, 2011 that sent Mo Williams and Jamario Moon to the Clippers and Baron Davis to the Cavaliers.[32] The Cavaliers, who had the second-worst record (19–63), had a combined total of 227 chances (22.7%) to win the lottery, which consists of 199 chances (19.9%) from their own pick and 28 chances (2.8%) from the Clippers' pick.[33][34]
  8. ^ Due to the 2011 NBA lockout, the season was shortened to 66 games per team.[35]
  9. ^ Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the season was suspended in March 2020 and later restarted in July.[36][37] Teams that were not invited to the NBA Bubble, Minnesota among them, played between 63 and 67 games until the suspension.
  10. ^ Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the season was shortened to 72 games.[38]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia

NBA draft lottery

View on Grokipedia
from Grokipedia
The NBA draft lottery is a weighted lottery system used by the (NBA) to determine the draft order for the first 14 picks among the 14 teams that did not qualify for the , promoting competitive balance by giving worse-performing teams higher chances at top selections while discouraging intentional underperformance. Introduced in , the lottery was designed to replace the previous reverse-order draft selection process, which had incentivized "tanking" by teams seeking premier draft talent, and it has evolved through multiple rule changes to refine its impact on league parity. The process involves drawing four ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 from a machine containing all 14 balls, creating one of 1,000 possible four-ball combinations that are pre-assigned to the participating teams based on their regular-season winning percentages; this drawing is repeated up to four times to assign the top four picks, after which the remaining picks (5 through 14) are allocated in inverse order of regular-season records. Odds for the No. 1 pick are weighted inversely to performance, with the three worst teams each holding a 14% chance, the fourth-worst at 12.5%, and decreasing thereafter down to 0.5% for the best non-playoff team, but reforms implemented in ensure no team can drop more than four spots from its original position to limit extreme outcomes. Historically, the lottery operated with equal odds for all non-playoff teams (seven from 1985 to 1988, nine in 1989) from 1985 to 1989, shifted to a weighted system in 1990 with the worst team initially receiving a 16% chance for the top pick, increasing to 25% from 1994 onward, and underwent significant flattening in to reduce tanking incentives amid growing concerns over manipulated losses; the event is typically held in May at a neutral site and broadcast nationally, often producing dramatic moments that influence franchise trajectories for years.

Historical Development

Territorial picks and coin flips (1947–1984)

From 1947 to 1965, the NBA employed a territorial pick system that allowed teams to claim college players from their local geographic area without competing in the standard draft order. This mechanism granted franchises priority over standout prospects within approximately 50 miles of their home city, aiming to boost fan interest by keeping regional stars close to home. For instance, the Philadelphia Warriors selected from the in 1959 as a territorial pick, capitalizing on his prominence in nearby . Similarly, the Fort Wayne Pistons used the rule in 1962 to draft from the University of Detroit, a local talent who later became a Hall of Famer after being traded. The system ended after the 1965 draft, when the took from UCLA as the final territorial selection, as the league sought greater competitive balance. A key flaw of territorial picks was their bias toward established or larger-market teams with access to talent-rich regions, which discouraged relocation to smaller markets lacking strong college programs and exacerbated league imbalances. Teams in areas like or could secure elite local players like (drafted by the Celtics in 1956 from Holy Cross) without regard for their poor regular-season records, while franchises in less prominent locales struggled to build rosters. This geographic favoritism often left worse-performing teams at a disadvantage, prompting criticism that it undermined merit-based selection and contributed to uneven competition across the league. In 1966, the NBA replaced territorial picks with a flip system for determining the top draft positions, which remained in use until 1984. Under this method, the two teams with the worst records—one from each conference—participated in a toss to decide the No. 1 overall pick, with the winner taking the top spot and the loser receiving No. 2; the rest of the order followed inverse conference standings. For multi-team ties within a conference, additional flips resolved the positioning among those squads. The system was introduced to eliminate geographic biases and introduce pure randomness, but it applied only to the worst teams, leaving other low-ranked franchises in predictable slots based on records. The coin flip era intensified incentives for tanking, as teams deliberately underperformed to secure the worst record in their conference and earn a 50% chance at the top pick, rather than settling for lower selections. This randomness was viewed as unfair, particularly when outcomes hinged on a single toss without accounting for the degree of a team's struggles, leading to widespread controversy over perceived inequities. A notable example occurred in 1984, when the and —both with 20-62 records—flipped for the No. 1 pick; Houston called heads and won, selecting , while Portland took No. 2 and drafted instead of . Such events, including Houston's back-to-back coin flip victories in 1983 (against for ) and 1984, fueled accusations of manipulation and highlighted the system's vulnerability to strategic losing, ultimately paving the way for a weighted lottery in 1985.

Introduction of the lottery (1985–1989)

The NBA introduced the draft lottery in 1985 as a means to inject into the selection of top draft picks, replacing the previous coin-flip system among the worst teams and aiming to reduce incentives for intentional losses during the regular season. Under this initial format, which ran through 1989, all non-playoff teams received equal probability of landing the first overall selection—specifically a 1-in-7 chance for the seven eligible teams each year from 1985 to 1989. The process involved placing envelopes bearing each team's logo into a transparent hopper, which was spun to mix them; NBA Commissioner then drew the envelopes sequentially on , with the first determining the No. 1 pick, the second the No. 2 pick, the third the No. 3 pick, and the remaining teams ordered inversely by their regular-season records for picks 4 through 7. Starting in 1987, the lottery determined only the top three picks, with picks 4–7 assigned inversely by record. The debut lottery in 1985 captured widespread attention when the ' envelope was drawn first, granting them the opportunity to select Georgetown center at No. 1 overall—a transformative moment that boosted the franchise's fortunes and helped elevate the league's popularity in a major media market. Three years later, in 1988, the secured the top pick under the same equal-odds framework, drafting Kansas forward first overall; however, the win fueled suspicions of manipulation after Clippers vice president [Elgin Baylor](/page/Elgin Baylor) appeared on the broadcast wearing a Manning , prompting accusations that the outcome had been predetermined to favor the team. Although designed to promote competitive balance, the equal-chance mechanism did little to eliminate tanking, as teams still sought to finish among the non-playoff qualifiers for any shot at the top selections. This era's system highlighted ongoing challenges in deterring strategic losses, setting the stage for subsequent reforms.

Weighted system and reforms (1990–present)

In 1990, the NBA introduced a weighted lottery system to replace the equal-odds format, assigning probabilities based on regular-season records to favor teams with the worst performances while still allowing some chance for better teams. Under this system, the 11 non-playoff teams were assigned 66 total combinations from the ping-pong ball draws, with the worst team receiving 11 combinations for a 16.7% chance at the No. 1 pick, the second-worst getting 10 (15.2%), and probabilities decreasing progressively to 1 combination (1.5%) for the 11th-worst team. This structure aimed to balance competitive equity by increasing the likelihood of poor-performing teams securing high draft selections without guaranteeing it. The system faced scrutiny after the won the lottery in 1992 and 1993 despite entering the latter with the longest odds of 1 in 66, prompting concerns over repeated success by one franchise. In response, the NBA Board of Governors modified the format effective for the 1994 draft, expanding to 1,000 combinations distributed among 11 non-playoff teams to provide more granular weighting and reduce the perception of excessive luck. The worst team now had 250 combinations (25% chance for No. 1), the second-worst 199 (19.9%), and the odds tapered to 5 (0.5%) for the 11th-worst, with the league later adjusting to 13 teams as expansion continued in 1995. This iteration persisted with minor tweaks until the late , when tanking—intentionally underperforming to improve draft position—became a growing issue, exemplified by multiple teams finishing with identical poor records to chase higher odds. To combat tanking, the NBA Board of Governors approved major reforms in 2017, implemented starting with the 2019 draft, which flattened the odds and limited downward mobility. The three worst teams each received a 14% chance for the No. 1 pick (down from 25%, 19.9%, and 15.6% previously), while the fourth-worst dropped to 9%, creating a more even distribution among bottom feeders to diminish the incentive for extreme losses. Picks 5 through 14 were assigned in inverse order of regular-season records, and no team could fall more than four spots from its initial position (e.g., the worst team guaranteed at least the fifth pick), further deterring tanking by capping risk. These changes preserved the weighted principle but emphasized broader participation in upside potential. The post-2019 odds for the No. 1 pick, based on lottery position, are as follows:
Lottery Position (Worst to Best)Probability of No. 1 Pick
1st (Worst record)14.0%
2nd14.0%
3rd14.0%
4th9.0%
5th7.5%
6th6.0%
7th4.5%
8th3.3%
9th2.1%
10th1.5%
11th0.8%
12th0.7%
13th0.6%
14th (Best non-playoff record)0.5%
This system has remained unchanged through the 2025 lottery, where the defied 1.8% —tied for the fourth-longest in history—to secure the top pick, jumping 10 spots and highlighting the format's capacity for dramatic outcomes.

Current Process

Eligibility and team ordering

The NBA draft lottery involves the 14 teams that failed to qualify for the , regardless of affiliation, a structure implemented following the reforms to create a unified pool based on league-wide performance rather than separate selections. Prior to , the lottery drew from the seven non-playoff teams in each , with determined by conference records. These 14 teams are initially ordered from 1 to 14 in reverse order of their regular-season winning percentages, with the holding the worst record assigned position 1 and the best among them assigned position 14. When teams finish with identical records, tiebreakers are applied in sequence: head-to-head winning percentage, winning percentage against teams in their own division (if applicable), winning percentage against teams in their own , winning percentage against playoff-qualified teams in their conference, winning percentage against playoff-qualified teams in the opposing conference, and net point differential; unresolved ties are settled by random drawings conducted by the NBA. The lottery itself determines the final order for the top four picks (1 through 4), while picks 5 through 14 are assigned in inverse order of the teams' regular-season records, maintaining their pre-lottery relative positioning among the non-selected teams. Under the post-2019 rules, the team with the league's worst record is guaranteed no worse than the fifth overall pick, with the three worst teams each receiving identical 14% odds for the No. 1 selection to discourage intentional underperformance. For instance, in the 2025 lottery, the entered with the league's worst record (17-65), along with the (18-64) and Charlotte Hornets (19-63) each holding 14% odds for the top pick. Traded first-round picks entering the lottery are subject to protection clauses agreed upon in trades, such as top-3 protection, where if the pick falls within the top three positions, it may convey to the original team as a second-round selection (typically late in the round) or trigger swap rights that allow exchanging it for an unprotected in a future draft.

Drawing mechanism

The drawing mechanism of the NBA draft lottery utilizes a physical containing 14 identical ping-pong balls numbered from 1 to 14. These balls are placed in a clear, air-mixing chamber that tumbles them to ensure , and four balls are drawn sequentially without replacement to form a unique four-digit , representing one of 1,001 possible outcomes calculated as the C(14,4). The process begins with the machine operating for approximately 20 seconds to mix the thoroughly before the first is drawn, followed by the second, third, and fourth in succession. The resulting combination is matched against pre-assigned allocations to determine the team receiving the No. 1 draft pick. This drawing is then repeated three times—each time starting with a fresh set of all 14 —to assign the No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4 picks. If the same team is drawn more than once, the results are discarded and the process is redone until four distinct teams are selected. If an invalid or duplicate combination occurs during testing, the draw is redone to maintain fairness. The 1,001 possible combinations are distributed among eligible teams according to their inverse order of regular-season performance, with poorer-performing teams receiving more combinations to reflect their higher odds. For instance, under the system in place since the reforms, the team with the league's worst record is allocated 140 combinations, while better-performing lottery teams receive progressively fewer, down to just 5 for the 14th-place team. These assignments are prepared in advance by officials and verified by independent auditors. The actual drawing takes place in a secure, locked room at the NBA's headquarters in , several hours before the public ceremony, conducted solely by a small group of league executives and representatives from the accounting firm to oversee integrity and prevent tampering. The machine and balls are inspected before and after each draw, and the resulting winning combinations are immediately sealed into envelopes bearing the corresponding team logos, which are then transported to the event venue for revelation without prior knowledge by broadcasters or team officials. Video recordings of the draws are later released publicly to promote transparency. This ping-pong ball system was introduced for the , replacing the envelope-drawing method used from 1985 to 1989, and initially employed 16 balls to generate 1,820 combinations. In 1994, the number of balls was reduced to 14 to streamline the process while preserving randomness, a format that has remained in use with subsequent weighting adjustments.

Final draft order assignment

Following the lottery draw, which determines the top four selections among the 14 non-playoff teams, the remaining 10 lottery teams are assigned picks 5 through 14 in inverse order of their regular-season records, from worst to best. The 16 playoff teams then fill picks 15 through 30, also in inverse order of their records. This structure ensures that while the lottery introduces randomness for the highest selections, the overall first-round order largely reflects team performance, with the worst record guaranteed no lower than fifth overall. To prevent any single team from securing multiple top-four picks, the drawing process includes safeguards: if the same team's combination is selected more than once during the four draws, or if the single unassigned combination is drawn, that result is discarded, and the process repeats until four distinct teams are chosen. In such cases, the additional picks are awarded to the next eligible team in the predetermined inverse-record order among the remaining lottery participants. Traded first-round picks often include lottery protections negotiated in trade agreements, such as top-four protections, which prevent conveyance if the pick falls within the protected range. If a protected pick is drawn in the top four, it does not transfer to the acquiring team; instead, the original team retains it, or the acquiring team receives a second-round pick (typically the midpoint of the second round) as compensation in the current draft, with the first-round obligation deferred to the following year, potentially with adjusted protections. For instance, in the 2025 lottery, protections on several picks, including the ' top-12 protected pick to the (which conveyed at #10) and the ' unprotected pick to the (#29), were evaluated post-draw to determine final conveyances. The second round of the draft proceeds without a lottery, with all 30 picks assigned strictly in inverse order of regular-season records, starting from the team with the worst record at pick 31 and ending with the best record at pick 60. A notable example of lottery impact occurred in 2025, when the , projected for the 12th-worst record (39-43) and thus the No. 12 pick with only 1.8% , won the No. 1 overall selection, dramatically altering their draft position and allowing them to select forward . All lottery results are certified by an independent accounting firm to ensure integrity; has overseen the process since 1989, with a representative present to verify the and combinations prior to the public announcement.

Odds and Probabilities

Ping-pong ball system

The ping-pong ball system forms the core mechanism for determining the top four picks in the NBA draft lottery, using a random draw to assign weighted probabilities to the non-playoff teams. Fourteen ping-pong balls, numbered 1 through , are placed in a , and four balls are drawn without replacement. The order of the draw does not matter; instead, the resulting set of four numbers corresponds to one of the possible combinations. The total number of such combinations is given by the ([14](/page/The14)4)=1,001\binom{[14](/page/The_14)}{4} = 1,001. Prior to the lottery, 1,000 of these 1,001 combinations are allocated to the participating proportional to their assigned , which are based on regular-season —the worse the record, the higher the odds. The unassigned combination ensures the draw remains fair and unpredictable. The probability of a drawing the No. 1 pick is simply the ratio of its allocated combinations to the total possible outcomes: P(No. 1)=team’s combinations1,001P(\text{No. 1}) = \frac{\text{team's combinations}}{1,001}. If a wins the No. 1 pick, its remaining combinations are removed from consideration, the machine is reset with the original 14 balls, and the process repeats for the No. 2 through No. 4 picks, adjusting the probabilities for the remaining . From 1990 to 2018, the system employed steeper weights to favor the worst-performing teams, assigning 250 combinations out of 1,000 to the team with the league's poorest record, yielding a 25% chance at the top pick. This structure incentivized poor performance but raised concerns about competitive integrity. In response, the NBA Board of Governors approved reforms in , implemented starting with the lottery, to flatten the odds and curb "tanking." Under the updated system, the three worst teams each receive 140 combinations (approximately 14% chance for No. 1), with diminishing allocations for better records, ensuring no team drops more than four spots from its pre-lottery position and capping the worst team's maximum fall at fifth overall. The total remains 1,000 assigned combinations out of 1,001. For instance, a team allocated 18 combinations would have a No. 1 pick probability of 181,001≈1.8%\frac{18}{1,001} \approx 1.8\%.

Team-specific chances

Under the current NBA draft lottery system implemented in , the 14 teams that did not qualify for the are assigned positions based on their reverse order of regular-season winning percentages, with the three worst records each receiving identical odds of 14.0% for the No. 1 overall pick, 52.1% for a top-3 pick, and 64.0% for a top-4 pick. These probabilities decrease progressively for better-performing teams, reflecting a flattened distribution designed to discourage intentional tanking while still rewarding poor performance. For instance, the team entering the lottery in the 11th position holds a 1.8% chance for the No. 1 pick, a 5.2% chance for top-3, and an 8.3% chance for top-4, but benefits from position protections that guarantee it cannot fall below the 14th spot. Position protections limit downward movement to no more than four spots for all entrants, with the three worst teams unable to drop below fifth overall, the fourth-worst below eighth, and so on, ensuring the original No. 1 lands no worse than fifth. When teams finish with tied records, their assigned combinations of ping-pong balls are split equally to determine relative positioning, maintaining fairness without favoring —a change from pre-2019 rules that allocated half the combinations to each . The 2025 NBA draft lottery exemplified these low-probability outcomes when the , entering with the 11th-worst record and thus 1.8% odds for the top pick, secured the No. 1 selection, marking one of the most improbable jumps in lottery history. The following table outlines the exact probabilities for each lottery position under the current system, including approximate combinations (summing to 1000) from which percentages are derived (/1001 total outcomes). Possible final positions reflect the range including top-4 lottery wins and max drop of four spots (capped at 14th):
Lottery PositionCombinations (approx.)Odds for No. 1 Pick (%)Odds for Top-3 Pick (%)Odds for Top-4 Pick (%)Possible Final Positions
1st (worst record)14014.052.164.01st–5th
2nd14014.052.164.01st–6th
3rd14014.052.164.01st–7th
4th12512.542.257.91st–8th
5th10510.534.149.01st–9th
6th909.027.841.31st–10th
7th757.522.233.11st–11th
8th606.017.326.11st–12th
9th454.513.019.91st–13th
10th303.08.813.71st–14th
11th181.85.28.31st–14th
12th80.82.43.81st–14th
13th40.41.21.91st–14th
14th (best among non-playoff)20.20.50.91st–14th

Lottery Ceremony

Event format

The NBA Draft Lottery is held annually in May, prior to the conclusion of the NBA playoffs, allowing non-playoff teams to determine their potential top-four draft positions while postseason action continues. For the 2025 edition, the event occurred on May 12 in , during the Eastern Semifinals. Historically conducted in at NBA headquarters or nearby venues through 2018, the lottery shifted to in 2019 to foster a more engaging, event-style presentation with team representatives and media in attendance. The 2020 lottery was adapted to a virtual format due to the , while the 2021 event took place in during the Elite Camp; in-person ceremonies resumed in from 2022 onward, including the 2025 gathering. The core of the event involves a secret drawing conducted off-camera in a secure room by an independent firm representative and an NBA executive, using a to select four ping-pong balls from 14 numbered 1 through 14, repeated four times to assign the top four picks among the 14 eligible teams. These results are sealed in opaque envelopes marked with the corresponding team logos and transported under escort to the ceremony stage. During the live proceedings, NBA opens the envelopes sequentially for each pick, starting with the team holding the league's worst record. If that team's envelope contains the No. 1 selection, it is announced as such; otherwise, Tatum proceeds to the next-worst team and continues until revealing the winner, building suspense through this reverse-order process. The sequence repeats for the No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4 picks among the remaining lottery teams. To ensure fairness, the drawing rules prohibit full reruns of the entire lottery; if an invalid combination occurs—such as a duplicate team assignment from a prior draw or the drawing of the sole unassigned combination—the specific four-ball draw is discarded, and the process is repeated until a valid result is obtained. All outcomes are binding immediately upon announcement, with no appeals or alterations permitted. The ceremony typically lasts 30 to 45 minutes, featuring brief hype videos highlighting top draft prospects before each pick's reveal to heighten anticipation.

Hosting and broadcast

The NBA draft lottery ceremony is typically conducted at a neutral venue to ensure and . In recent years, including 2024 and 2025, the event has been held at the Convention Center in , , marking a shift from earlier locations primarily in the New York-New Jersey area, such as the for the 2017 lottery. NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum serves as the primary host, announcing the draft order selections on stage during the live ceremony. Team representatives, often including front-office executives, past players, or celebrities associated with the franchise, join Tatum to receive envelopes revealing their positions, adding a personal and dramatic touch. Notable examples include actress Jami Gertz representing the Atlanta Hawks in 2018 and 2019, and Hall of Famer Brad Daugherty appearing virtually for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2020. In the inaugural 1985 lottery, the event's high profile was highlighted by the anticipation surrounding figures like Georgetown coach John Thompson and the eventual No. 1 pick Patrick Ewing, who watched the proceedings together, setting a precedent for celebrity and team involvement in later years. The production emphasizes theatrical elements to heighten suspense, featuring dimmed lighting, a large video screen displaying team logos, and a stage setup where representatives react in real time as picks are unveiled from the third through first position. The actual drawing occurs off-stage for security, with results relayed to Tatum for announcement. Following the ceremony, winners hold immediate on-site press conferences to discuss implications, while the full event sequence integrates pre-show analysis and post-lottery breakdowns. Since 2015, the lottery has been broadcast live in the United States on or ABC, following prior coverage on ; international audiences access it via , with streaming available on NBA.com and the ESPN app. ESPN's 2023 telecast, leading into playoff coverage, averaged 3.24 million viewers, while the 2024 ABC broadcast drew 2.01 million, and the 2025 airing reached 1.88 million despite the ' historic upset win with just 1.8% odds. Viewership peaks in high-stakes years, such as 4.43 million for the 2019 event headlined by prospects.

Notable Outcomes

Historic upsets and streaks

The NBA draft lottery has produced several historic upsets where teams with minimal chances secured the No. 1 pick, reshaping franchises and fueling debates about the system's fairness. In 2019, the , holding the sixth-worst record at 33-49 and just a 6% chance of landing the top selection, defied expectations to win the lottery outright. This improbable outcome positioned them to draft a generational talent, highlighting the lottery's capacity for dramatic shifts even under the pre-2019 weighted system. Similarly, in 2025, the , projected to pick eighth with only a 1.8% probability of the top spot, jumped seven positions to claim the No. 1 pick, marking one of the largest upward movements in lottery history and the fourth-lowest odds for a winner since 1985. Another notable low-odds victory came in 2011 for the , who entered with a 19.9% chance of the top pick after finishing 19-63 in the wake of ' departure to , ultimately securing the No. 1 selection in a result that extended their recent lottery success. The 1993 lottery also exemplified such rarities, as the overcame 1-in-66 odds (approximately 1.52%) to win the top pick despite not having the league's worst record, effectively benefiting teams like the through subsequent trades that netted them high-value assets. These upsets underscore how the lottery's design, even in its envelope era, allowed mid-tier losers a realistic shot at primacy, contrasting with the coin-flip system's earlier predictability. Consecutive lottery successes have been equally rare and influential, with the achieving back-to-back No. 1 picks in 1992 and 1993—the only team to do so in league history—which amplified concerns over tanking incentives and prompted major reforms. Their 1992 win secured , followed by the 1993 selection of (immediately traded to the Warriors for and future assets), establishing the Magic as contenders while exposing flaws in the flat-odds envelope system used from 1985 to 1993. This streak contributed to the NBA's decision to introduce ping-pong balls in 1994, reducing each team's combinations from up to 66 to a maximum of 250 across 1,000 total balls, to better weight outcomes toward the worst-performing teams and curb perceived exploitation. These events have not been without , as improbable wins often sparked rigging allegations that tested public trust in the process. The inaugural 1985 lottery saw the , one of seven teams with equal 1-in-7 odds, draw the top envelope in a televised event overseen by Commissioner , leading to persistent "frozen envelope" theories claiming the NBA manipulated the result to place in a major market and boost visibility. Although the league has consistently denied tampering and independent audits have upheld integrity, the incident set a precedent for skepticism. A similar perception arose in 2008 when the , with the ninth-worst record and a mere 1.7% chance, won the No. 1 pick to select , prompting widespread fan accusations of favoritism toward a storied franchise in a key media hub despite no evidence of foul play. Statistically, the lottery's randomness has led to extended anomalies, such as the streak from to where no team with the league's worst record claimed the No. 1 pick—a seven-year span amid the post-2019 flattened that favored poorer teams but still produced upsets elsewhere. Under the post-2019 flattened , which caps the worst team's top-pick at 14% to discourage tanking, the probability of the league's bottom finisher landing in the top four selections stands at 52.1% (with a 47.9% chance of picking 5th or worse), reflecting a deliberate balance that has yet to yield a No. 1 for the worst team in its first seven years. These patterns illustrate the system's evolution toward equity while preserving the potential for transformative surprises.

Influential lottery picks

The 1985 NBA Draft Lottery marked a turning point for the , who secured the No. 1 pick and selected Georgetown center . Ewing anchored the franchise for 15 seasons, earning 11 selections and leading the Knicks to three consecutive Eastern Conference Finals appearances from 1993 to 1995, including a berth in 1994. His defensive prowess and scoring ability revitalized a struggling team, transforming into a playoff staple during the . Similarly, the Orlando Magic's improbable 1992 lottery victory propelled them into contention by drafting LSU standout . , who won Rookie of the Year in 1993, dominated the paint with averages of 23.7 points and 13.5 rebounds over four seasons, forging a dynamic duo with that carried the expansion franchise to the . Although swept by the , O'Neal's presence elevated the Magic to 57 wins that season and established them as Eastern Conference threats, setting the stage for sustained relevance. The 2003 lottery win rescued the , who selected hometown phenom out of St. Vincent-St. Mary High School. James immediately boosted attendance and performance, earning Rookie of the Year honors and leading the Cavs to 50 wins by his fourth season, culminating in a 2016 NBA Championship—Cleveland's first major professional sports title in 52 years. His seven-year initial stint revived a moribund franchise, turning it from perennial lottery dwellers into four-time Finals participants across two stints. In 2012, the New Orleans Hornets (now Pelicans) capitalized on their lottery triumph to draft Kentucky's , whose elite two-way play earned him Rookie of the Year and three All-NBA First Team honors during his tenure. Davis guided the Pelicans to the 2018 Western Conference Semifinals alongside , amassing career averages of 24.0 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game in New Orleans, though the franchise's playoff success remained limited to two appearances before his 2019 trade. The lottery positioned Davis as the cornerstone of a rebuilding effort, influencing subsequent roster moves like the 2019 acquisition of . Recent lottery outcomes continue to yield transformative talents, as seen with the Pelicans' 2019 win that netted Duke's . Williamson exploded as a with 22.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and All-Rookie First Team honors, propelling New Orleans to the playoffs and injecting star power amid Anthony Davis's trade request. His high-flying athleticism and scoring efficiency have since anchored multiple playoff pushes, underscoring the lottery's role in rapid team elevation. The 2025 lottery's shocking outcome saw the , holding just 1.8% odds, land the No. 1 pick and select forward . As a versatile 6-foot-8 defender with All-ACC honors from his freshman year (19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds per game), Flagg enters a contending roster alongside and , poised to bolster their championship aspirations. Early in the 2025-26 season, he has averaged 15.1 points and 6.8 rebounds as of November 14, 2025, signaling potential as a two-way force despite shooting adjustments. Lottery successes have often paved paths to dynasties, exemplified by the 1996 Charlotte Hornets' draft position that led to selecting 13th overall before trading him to the for . Bryant, paired later with lottery product , powered the Lakers to three straight championships from 2000 to 2002, illustrating how even mid-lottery assets can reshape contenders. Broader trends show that eight of the last 20 NBA champions (since 2005) featured a top-3 lottery pick from the prior five years as a core contributor, highlighting the mechanism's influence on title contention.

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  34. https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/how-the-nba-draft-lottery-works-each-teams-odds-of-winning-the-no-1-pick-in-2025-players-to-be-selected/
  35. https://www.theringer.com/2021/03/17/nba/nba-trade-deadline-first-pick-protection
  36. https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/08/the-complications-of-protecting-far-off-traded-picks.html
  37. https://www.nba.com/news/2025-nba-draft-lottery-result
  38. https://www.si.com/nba/hornets/onsi/draft/how-does-it-work-explaining-the-nba-s-draft-lottery-system
  39. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/356389/2018/05/16/the-room-where-it-happens-behind-the-scenes-at-the-nba-draft-lottery/
  40. https://www.nba.com/news/atlanta-hawks-win-2024-nba-draft-lottery
  41. https://nypost.com/2018/05/16/jami-gertz-is-the-real-winner-of-the-nba-draft-lottery/
  42. https://www.fearthesword.com/2020/8/18/21374438/cavs-legend-brad-daugherty-to-represent-team-virtually-at-2020-nba-draft-lottery
  43. https://www.nba.com/knicks/nyk70-1985-knicks-win-lottery-pick-patrick-ewing
  44. https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/zachlowe29702176/behind-scenes-weirdest-nba-draft-lottery-ever
  45. https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-releases/2018/05/espn-to-televise-2018-nba-draft-lottery-in-chicago-may-15/
  46. https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2024/05/15/audience-analysis-nba-draft-lottery/
  47. https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2019/05/nba-draft-lottery-ratings-high-espn/
  48. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/14/sports/zion-pelicans-nba-lottery.html
  49. https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/5/17/2175858/2011-nba-draft-lottery-odds-timberwolves-cavaliers
  50. https://en.as.com/nba/which-nba-team-has-finished-first-in-the-draft-lottery-with-the-lowest-odds-n/
  51. https://www.nba.com/magic/news/orlando-magic-nba-draft-lottery-history-odds-paolo-banchero-shaquille-oneal-penny-hardaway-story-20230515
  52. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/976419/2019/05/14/history-shows-odds-are-not-difficult-for-wizards-other-longshots-to-win-nba-draft-lottery/
  53. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/971085/2019/05/10/can-the-nba-draft-lottery-be-rigged-an-exploration-as-the-knicks-big-day-approaches/
  54. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6351764/2025/05/13/chicago-bulls-nba-draft-lottery/
  55. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-draft-lottery-odds-history-winners/xecy0z1ukp1nnzel195xilzp
  56. https://www.nba.com/magic/news/pat-williams-reflects-back-magic-winning-1992-nba-draft-lottery
  57. https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17484132/untold-story-orlando-magic-almost-failing-draft-shaquille-oneal
  58. https://www.axios.com/local/cleveland/2023/05/22/lebron-nba-draft-lottery-2003
  59. https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/35653907/beyond-points-winning-lebron-james-legacy-better-worse-empire
  60. https://www.nba.com/pelicans/news/hornets_select_anthony_davis_w_2012_06_28.html
  61. https://www.nola.com/sports/pelicans/a-look-back-at-anthony-davis-time-in-new-orleans/article_cf042d6a-60e7-5d58-a40a-5ec67edf69b6.html
  62. https://www.marketplace.org/story/2019/05/15/nba-draft-lottery-game-of-chance-zion-williamson-pelicans
  63. https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/45913874/cooper-flagg-forecast-mvps-nba-titles-impact-dallas
  64. https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/5041939/cooper-flagg
  65. https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/kobe-bryant-and-the-draft-day-trade-that-changed-nba-history/
  66. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2020/01/26/kobe-bryant-los-angeles-lakers-trade-charlotte-hornets-nba-draft/4582569002/
  67. https://clutchpoints.com/nba/nba-stories/10-no-1-draft-picks-picks-who-won-an-nba-title-with-their-original-teams
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