Creemos

Creemos ("We Believe") is a Bolivian conservative political party founded on January 23, 2020, by Luis Fernando Camacho, a businessman and former president of the Santa Cruz Civic Committee who rose to prominence during the 2019 protests against the disputed reelection of Evo Morales.^[1][2]
Originally formed as an electoral alliance incorporating elements of the Solidarity Civic Unity and Christian Democratic Party, Creemos positions itself as an alternative to the socialist policies of the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), promoting principles of social conservatism, federalism, regional autonomy, and market-oriented reforms rooted in its 2020 government plan emphasizing faith in Bolivians' potential and national unity beyond ethnic divisions.^[3][4]
In the October 2020 general elections, Creemos's presidential candidate Camacho secured 14 percent of the national vote, establishing the party as a key opposition player primarily in the eastern lowlands.^[5][6]
The party's influence peaked with Camacho's election as governor of Santa Cruz—the nation's economic powerhouse—in the 2021 subnational elections, where Creemos demonstrated strong regional support; however, Camacho's 2022 arrest on sedition and terrorism charges tied to the 2019 unrest has sparked accusations of judicial weaponization by MAS authorities, with international observers and human rights groups highlighting procedural irregularities and political motivations behind the prosecution.^[7][1][8]
Creemos continues to advocate for democratic accountability, anti-corruption measures, and decentralization, contesting the MAS's dominance amid Bolivia's deepening political polarization ahead of the 2025 elections.^[9][10]

History

Formation and early development

Creemos was founded in January 2020 by Luis Fernando Camacho, a civic leader from Santa Cruz who rose to prominence during the 2019 protests against Evo Morales' disputed re-election bid.^[11] The alliance emerged from the civic movements in Bolivia's eastern departments, particularly Santa Cruz, which had mobilized against perceived electoral fraud and centralist policies of the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS).^[11] Camacho, former president of the Pro-Santa Cruz Civic Committee, positioned Creemos as a vehicle for regional interests and opposition to MAS dominance.^[12] Initially structured as an electoral coalition, Creemos incorporated established parties such as the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) and Solidarity Civic Unity (UCS), broadening its base beyond pure civic activism.^[7] This formation occurred amid Bolivia's political transition following Morales' resignation and Jeanine Áñez's interim presidency, with the alliance focusing on preparing for the rescheduled 2020 general elections.^[11] Early efforts emphasized unity among anti-MAS factions in the Media Luna regions, advocating for federalism and economic liberalization to counter socialist policies.^[12] By mid-2020, Creemos had solidified its organizational framework, selecting Camacho as its presidential candidate and outlining a platform rooted in departmental autonomy and anti-corruption measures.^[7] The alliance's rapid development reflected the momentum from 2019's civic unrest, transforming grassroots resistance into a national political contender despite internal tensions, such as early alignments with figures like Oscar Pumari that later fractured.^[12] This phase established Creemos as a key player in Bolivia's fragmented opposition landscape.^[11]

Participation in the 2019 political crisis

Luis Fernando Camacho, who would later found Creemos in January 2020, served as president of the Pro-Santa Cruz Civic Committee during the 2019 crisis and emerged as a key opposition leader in the eastern department of Santa Cruz.^[13][14] Following the October 20, 2019, general election—marked by a 24-hour halt in vote counting and subsequent irregularities that prompted fraud allegations from domestic and international observers—the Civic Committee under Camacho mobilized protests demanding President Evo Morales' resignation and new elections.^[15][16] From late October onward, Camacho coordinated civic strikes and demonstrations in Santa Cruz, a stronghold of anti-Morales sentiment due to regional grievances over central government policies favoring the indigenous highlands.^[15] On November 4, 2019, the Civic Committee initiated an indefinite paro cívico (civic stoppage), paralyzing economic activity in the region and amplifying national pressure amid clashes that resulted in dozens of deaths across Bolivia.^[17] Camacho traveled to La Paz on November 9, delivering an ultimatum to the Legislative Assembly with symbolic items including the Bolivian flag and a Bible, insisting on Morales' ouster to restore institutional order.^[15] These actions contributed to the escalation that prompted Morales' resignation on November 10, 2019, after the Organization of American States' preliminary audit documented "clear manipulations" in the vote tally process.^[16] Post-resignation, Camacho supported the transitional government led by Jeanine Áñez, which scheduled fresh elections, though his involvement drew later accusations from Morales' Movement for Socialism (MAS) of inciting violence—a claim echoed in his 2022 arrest on terrorism charges related to the unrest.^[13][18] The Santa Cruz movement's role highlighted regional autonomist demands that would inform Creemos' platform, emphasizing opposition to MAS dominance without formal party structure at the time.^[17]

2020 national elections and aftermath

Creemos participated in Bolivia's general elections on October 18, 2020, as a newly formed political alliance primarily comprising the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) and the Solidarity Civic Unity (UCS), with Luis Fernando Camacho as its presidential candidate.^[19] The alliance emphasized regional autonomy for Santa Cruz, economic liberalization, and opposition to the Movement for Socialism (MAS), positioning itself against the return of MAS governance following the 2019 political crisis.^[20] Camacho, a prominent civic leader from Santa Cruz, campaigned on anti-corruption measures, federalism, and criticism of MAS's centralized policies, drawing support from eastern lowlands provinces.^[21] In the presidential race, Camacho secured 580,811 votes, equivalent to 14.00% of the valid votes cast, placing third behind Luis Arce of MAS (55.10%) and Carlos Mesa of Civic Community (28.83%).^[22] No runoff was required, as Arce surpassed the 50% threshold needed for outright victory. In legislative contests, Creemos won 16 seats in the 130-member Chamber of Deputies, concentrated in Santa Cruz and other opposition strongholds, contributing to MAS falling short of a two-thirds supermajority in Congress.^[23] This outcome positioned Creemos as a significant minority bloc capable of influencing legislation on budgetary and regional matters. Voter turnout was 88.41%, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, with elections observed as generally free and fair by international missions, though concerns persisted over disinformation and access restrictions.^[21] Official results were certified by the Plurinational Electoral Organ on October 23, 2020, after rapid tabulation to avoid 2019 irregularities. Camacho publicly acknowledged Arce's victory on October 19, 2020, urging a peaceful transition and rejecting unfounded fraud claims, in contrast to some opposition rhetoric.^[20] Arce was inaugurated on November 8, 2020, marking MAS's return to power. In the immediate aftermath, Creemos focused on consolidating its legislative presence and regional influence, with Camacho leveraging the national platform to win the Santa Cruz governorship in March 2021 subnational elections by a wide margin.^[23] The alliance criticized early MAS policies on resource nationalization and judicial reforms, participating in congressional debates while avoiding widespread mobilization, though tensions over federal funding allocations to eastern departments foreshadowed ongoing opposition dynamics.^[21]

Ideology and political positions

Economic liberalism and opposition to MAS socialism

Creemos promotes economic liberalism through policies favoring private enterprise, market deregulation, and incentives for investment, positioning these as antidotes to the state-dominated socialism of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). In its 2020–2025 government plan, the alliance outlined measures to reduce fiscal deficits from 6% of GDP in 2020 to 0% by 2025 via efficiency reforms, while liberating exports from prior ministerial approvals to boost private sector competitiveness.^[3] This approach contrasts with MAS's nationalizations of hydrocarbons and mining since 2006, which Creemos implicitly critiques by advocating public-private partnerships (PPPs) to replace state monopolies.^[3] Key proposals include enacting a PPP law in 2020 to mobilize $10 billion in investments and generate 200,000 jobs by 2025, alongside returning Bolivia to the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (CIADI) that year for investor protections.^[3] The plan targeted opening hydrocarbons to foreign private associations for efficiency gains and partnering with private firms for lithium exploitation starting in 2022, aiming for a battery factory by 2025—sectors where MAS prioritized state control under Evo Morales and Luis Arce.^[3] Property rights were emphasized via full land titling by December 31, 2022, and tax exemptions on agricultural inputs until 2025 to support agribusiness in Santa Cruz, Creemos's stronghold.^[3] Leader Luis Fernando Camacho has reinforced this stance, accusing MAS of engineering Bolivia's economic crisis through mismanagement, including dollar shortages and diesel scarcity as of October 2024.^[24] He proposed "economic liberty" as a core reform, including four urgent measures in February 2024 like convening cross-party economic working groups within 10 days to address fiscal woes.^[25] Creemos deputies have warned of hyperinflation risks akin to Venezuela, attributing them to MAS's lack of a viable economic strategy under Arce.^[26] In February 2025, Creemos launched a 2025–2030 program focused on comprehensive economic reforms to reactivate growth, building on liberal principles amid MAS's internal divisions and policy failures.^[27] These positions align with center-right opposition ideologies, prioritizing private-led development over MAS's redistributive socialism, which Creemos leaders argue has stifled investment and exacerbated shortages.^[28]

Regional autonomy and federalism

Creemos positions itself as a proponent of federalism in Bolivia, arguing that the current unitary state with limited departmental autonomies perpetuates centralist control that disadvantages resource-rich regions like Santa Cruz.^[29] The alliance views federalism as essential for equitable resource distribution and regional development, proposing a model with nine autonomous departments to replace the plurinational state's structure, which they criticize as artificial and inefficient.^[30] Leader Luis Fernando Camacho has repeatedly emphasized that departmental autonomies, while a step forward, are insufficient without federal reorganization, as evidenced by his 2021 announcement of socialization efforts for a federal model and his 2022 commitment to advance a federal agenda from Santa Cruz.^[31][32] In Santa Cruz, Creemos strongly defends the 2008 Estatuto Autonómico, which grants the department enhanced legislative and fiscal powers following a regional referendum, positioning it as a foundation for broader federal aspirations.^[33] The alliance has invoked the statute in governance disputes, such as during Camacho's 2022 detention, insisting on mechanisms that prioritize departmental stability over central intervention, including temporary leadership transitions to maintain autonomy.^[34] This stance reflects Creemos' broader push for regions to retain more revenues from local production—Santa Cruz contributes approximately 30% of Bolivia's GDP through agriculture and hydrocarbons—via a new fiscal pact that would devolve taxing and spending authority.^[31] Creemos frames federalism not as fragmentation but as unification through empowered regions, contrasting it with the MAS government's resistance, which portrays such reforms as threats to national cohesion.^[30] Camacho reiterated this in early 2025, calling for federalism to overcome centralism's developmental barriers, even amid his legal challenges.^[31] The alliance's 2020 gubernatorial platform in Santa Cruz highlighted historical struggles for elected local executives as precursors to federal demands, underscoring a commitment to decentralizing power from La Paz.^[35]

Social conservatism and anti-corruption stance

Creemos promotes social conservatism by emphasizing the centrality of the traditional family unit and values aligned with Bolivia's predominantly Christian cultural framework. The party's 2020-2025 government plan outlined the creation of a dedicated Ministry of Family and Youth to advance policies that safeguard family structures, youth development, and support for the elderly and disabled, while reinforcing constitutional principles of human dignity and societal cohesion.^[3] This approach reflects the influence of constituent groups like the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), which integrates faith-based perspectives into its platform.^[36] Leader Luis Fernando Camacho has embodied this orientation through public displays of religiosity, such as carrying a Bible into the presidential palace during the 2019 protests against Evo Morales' government, symbolizing a commitment to moral and spiritual renewal amid political turmoil.^[37] Operating from the conservative stronghold of Santa Cruz—Bolivia's economic hub known for its religious and traditionalist leanings—Creemos positions itself against perceived erosions of family-centric norms under MAS governance, prioritizing policies that preserve intergenerational bonds and cultural heritage over expansive state interventions in personal spheres.^[38] On anti-corruption, Creemos has adopted a resolute stance, framing it as essential to restoring institutional integrity after years of alleged abuses by the MAS administration. The 2020 plan committed to establishing an autonomous Anti-Corruption Office to probe and prosecute cases flagged by the state comptroller, alongside enacting a State Contracting Law by 2020 to eliminate discretionary direct awards and enforce bidding transparency.^[3] Further, it proposed a Domain Extinction Law to seize and repatriate assets derived from corrupt practices, directing recovered funds toward public needs like infrastructure and social programs. Camacho's leadership in the 2019 civic mobilizations, triggered by electoral irregularities under Morales, underscored this focus, portraying corruption as a systemic failure rectified only through vigilant civic oversight and legal reforms.^[3] These measures aim to dismantle entrenched patronage networks, with Creemos advocating merit-based governance to prevent recurrence.

Organizational structure

Constituent parties and alliances

Creemos originated as an electoral alliance comprising the Partido Demócrata Cristiano (PDC) and Unidad Cívica Solidaridad (UCS) for the 2020 Bolivian general elections.^[39] The PDC, established in 1953 as a Christian democratic organization emphasizing social market policies and ethical governance, contributed national-level organizational experience.) The UCS, founded in 1989 by Max Fernández and rooted in Santa Cruz's civic movements, focused on regional development, anti-corruption, and solidarity-based economics, providing strong local support in the eastern lowlands.^[39] The alliance was publicly launched on January 24, 2020, by Luis Fernando Camacho and Marco Antonio Pumari, leaders of Santa Cruz's pro-democracy protests, and formally registered with the Plurinational Electoral Organ (Órgano Electoral Plurinacional, OEP) on January 31, 2020, enabling Camacho's presidential candidacy.^{[40] [39]} This structure allowed Creemos, initially a civic group (agrupación ciudadana) led by Camacho, to meet legal requirements for nationwide competition under Bolivian electoral law, which mandates alliances for entities lacking full party status.^[39] Internal frictions emerged post-2020, exacerbated by Camacho's governorship and legal challenges. UCS annulled its alliance with Creemos on October 5, 2024, citing strategic divergences ahead of the 2025 elections.^[41] PDC followed suit, with both parties departing by April 2025, reducing Creemos to independent operation as a registered civic entity without formal party backing for subsequent contests.^[42] This dissolution reflected broader fragmentation in Bolivia's opposition, limiting Creemos' logistical resources but preserving its core identity tied to Camacho's leadership.^[43]

Leadership and key figures

Luis Fernando Camacho serves as the founder and principal leader of Creemos, having established the alliance in January 2020 following his prominent role in the 2019 protests against the disputed election results. A businessman and former civic leader from Santa Cruz, Camacho ran as Creemos's presidential candidate in the October 2020 general elections, securing 14% of the national vote, with strong support in the eastern lowlands. Elected governor of Santa Cruz department in March 2021, he has advocated for regional autonomy and opposition to the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). Since his December 2022 arrest on terrorism and sedition charges linked to the 2019 crisis—charges his supporters describe as politically motivated—Camacho has remained a symbolic figurehead, with his legal status transferred to house arrest in August 2025.^[11][21][8] Marco Antonio Pumari, a Potosí civic leader who participated in the 2019 protests, emerged as a key ally and was selected as Creemos's vice-presidential candidate alongside Camacho in 2020. Pumari's involvement helped extend the alliance's appeal beyond Santa Cruz to mining regions, though his December 2022 detention on similar charges to Camacho's has limited his active role.^[44] In the legislative sphere, Erwin Bazán has acted as a prominent Creemos deputy, frequently representing the bloc in public statements on unity and defense of detained leaders, including coordination with allied figures like Samuel Doria Medina of Unidad Nacional. Other figures, such as deputies Oscar Michel and Haidy Muñoz, have held positions in parliamentary directivas, contributing to Creemos's organizational continuity amid internal divisions reported in 2023.^[45][46]

Electoral performance

Presidential elections

Creemos fielded Luis Fernando Camacho as its presidential candidate in the 2020 Bolivian general elections, held on October 18 following delays due to the 2019 political crisis. Paired with Marco Antonio Pumari as the vice-presidential nominee, the ticket emphasized regional autonomy, anti-corruption measures, and opposition to the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). Camacho's campaign drew strong support from Santa Cruz and other eastern departments, reflecting Creemos's base in civic movements against perceived MAS overreach.^[47] The 2020 results showed Creemos securing 862,186 votes, equivalent to 14.00% of the valid votes, placing third behind MAS candidate Luis Arce (55.10%) and Comunidad Ciudadana's Carlos Mesa (28.83%). This performance granted Creemos proportional representation in the Plurinational Legislative Assembly, including four senators and 16 deputies, marking its entry into national politics despite not advancing to a potential runoff.^[47] In the 2025 general elections, held on August 17 with a runoff on October 19, Creemos participated within the Unidad coalition, endorsing Samuel Doria Medina of Unidad Nacional as the presidential candidate alongside José Luis Lupo for vice president. This alliance aimed to consolidate opposition votes amid MAS internal divisions between factions led by Luis Arce and Evo Morales. Creemos's involvement highlighted its strategy of broader anti-MAS coalitions to challenge socialist policies, though the fragmented opposition field limited unified support.^[47] Creemos-Unidad obtained 1,054,568 votes in the first round, representing 19.69% and finishing third, behind Rodrigo Paz (Partido Demócrata Cristiano, who advanced to and won the runoff) and Jorge Quiroga (Demócratas). The coalition did not qualify for the runoff, which ultimately ended nearly two decades of MAS dominance with Paz's victory. Creemos's improved vote share from 2020 demonstrated growing appeal in urban and eastern regions but underscored challenges in national consolidation.^[47]

Legislative and regional elections

In the October 18, 2020, general elections, Creemos secured 4 seats in the Senate out of 36 total, primarily reflecting its voter base in Santa Cruz.^[48] The alliance also obtained 14 seats in the 130-member Chamber of Deputies, with strong results in Santa Cruz including 8 uninominal districts and 6 plurinominal seats.^[49] These gains, alongside those of other opposition groups like Comunidad Ciudadana, denied the MAS party an absolute majority in the legislature, requiring coalitions for legislative approval.^[48] Creemos's legislative representation focused on departmental interests, particularly advocating for Santa Cruz's autonomy and economic priorities in assembly debates. The alliance's senators and deputies emphasized opposition to centralist policies, contributing to blocked initiatives like certain MAS-proposed laws on resource distribution. In the March 7, 2021, subnational elections for governors, departmental assemblies, and municipalities, Creemos concentrated efforts in Santa Cruz, where it won the governorship with candidate Luis Fernando Camacho receiving 55.6% of the vote in the first round, avoiding a runoff.^[50] Camacho's victory underscored Creemos's dominance in the department, also securing a majority in the 47-seat Santa Cruz Departmental Assembly. The alliance further captured multiple mayoral races in Santa Cruz municipalities, such as Warnes and Cotoca, bolstering local governance aligned with regionalist platforms. Outside Santa Cruz, Creemos's performance was marginal, highlighting its departmental rather than national scope in subnational contests.

Controversies

Allegations of involvement in 2019 violence

The Bolivian Public Ministry accused Luis Fernando Camacho, founder and leader of Creemos and former president of the Pro-Santa Cruz Civic Committee, of terrorism and sedition for his role in organizing opposition protests during the 2019 political crisis.^[51] Prosecutors alleged that Camacho entered into illicit agreements with military personnel to foment a coup d'état, inciting road blockades, civic strikes, and mobilizations in Santa Cruz and other eastern departments that escalated into violent clashes between November 2019 and Morales' resignation on November 10.^{[13] [18]} These actions, according to the charges, contributed to a broader wave of unrest that included attacks on public infrastructure and pro-MAS figures, such as the November 2019 mob assault on the Vinto municipal office, where protesters abducted and humiliated Mayor Patricia Arce.^[52] The allegations portray the Pro-Santa Cruz-led protests as deliberately violent and aimed at destabilizing the elected government, with Camacho's group blamed for encouraging confrontations that preceded the post-resignation massacres at Sacaba (November 19, 9 deaths) and Senkata (November 19-20, 10 deaths), where security forces under the interim administration fired on pro-Morales demonstrators.^[18] However, independent analyses, including those from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, documented violence from multiple actors, with initial clashes often involving pro-Morales counterprotesters targeting opposition groups, and no direct evidence presented in court linking Camacho to on-the-ground violent acts beyond rhetorical calls for resignation.^[53] Following the MAS party's return to power in 2020, these accusations formed the basis for Camacho's 2022 arrest and pretrial detention, extended multiple times despite procedural irregularities noted by observers.^[54] Human Rights Watch has characterized the prosecution as part of a pattern of judicial weaponization against opposition figures, emphasizing weak evidentiary standards and political motivations from MAS-controlled institutions, which have historically exhibited bias in targeting eastern Bolivian autonomist leaders.^[52] Camacho's supporters maintain the 2019 actions were nonviolent civic resistance to documented electoral irregularities confirmed by an OAS audit, rejecting terrorism labels as retroactive smears to delegitimize Creemos' anti-MAS platform.^[55] In August 2025, Camacho was transferred to house arrest pending trial, amid ongoing debates over the charges' validity.^[56]

Prosecution of Luis Fernando Camacho

Luis Fernando Camacho, the founder and leader of Creemos and governor of Santa Cruz department, was arrested on December 28, 2022, by Bolivian police in a raid on his home without a prior warrant, during which he was held incommunicado for several hours before being transferred to a maximum-security prison in Chonchocoro.^[51][57][55] The arrest stemmed from charges brought by the MAS-aligned prosecutor's office accusing him of terrorism under Article 133 of the Bolivian Criminal Code, as well as sedition, conspiracy, criminal association, and illegal use of public property, all linked to his alleged role in orchestrating violence and a "coup d'état" during the 2019 political crisis that led to the resignation of President Evo Morales following disputed elections.^[54][8][58] A La Paz court initially ordered four months of preventive detention on December 30, 2022, which was extended multiple times despite Camacho's legal team arguing the charges lacked concrete evidence and were politically motivated to neutralize opposition figures challenging MAS dominance.^[59][56] Prosecutors alleged Camacho coordinated armed groups and incited unrest from Santa Cruz, but critics, including former President Carlos Mesa, described the accusations as fabricated, pointing to the absence of direct proof tying him to violent acts amid the broader context of nationwide protests triggered by the Organization of American States' audit revealing electoral irregularities.^[60][1] Camacho remained in pretrial detention for two years and eight months, during which the case drew international scrutiny; in March 2025, the United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention ruled his imprisonment arbitrary, violating international human rights standards due to insufficient evidence and procedural irregularities, urging his immediate release.^[1] On August 27, 2025, a Bolivian court granted house arrest for up to four months pending trial, allowing Camacho confinement to his residence while facing ongoing proceedings in the "Coup d'État I" case and related probes.^[61][8][54] The prosecution has been widely viewed by opposition supporters and human rights observers as selective retribution by the Arce administration against anti-MAS leaders, given Bolivia's overbroad terrorism statute often applied to political dissent and the pattern of extended pretrial detentions exceeding legal limits without convictions.^[58][55] Camacho has consistently maintained his innocence, asserting the charges fabricate his nonviolent civic leadership in defense of democratic processes during the 2019 crisis.^[59] No trial verdict has been issued as of October 2025, with the case highlighting tensions between Bolivia's judiciary, perceived as influenced by the ruling party, and regional autonomy advocates.^[56][62]

Criticisms of regional separatism

Critics of Creemos, primarily from the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) and aligned state institutions, have accused the alliance and its leader Luis Fernando Camacho of promoting regional separatism in Santa Cruz, portraying demands for greater departmental autonomy as threats to national unity. These allegations intensified during Camacho's governorship, with MAS officials claiming that Creemos' advocacy for fiscal decentralization and control over local resources equates to an intent to detach eastern Bolivia from the central state dominated by La Paz.^[63][64] A key instance occurred in September 2021, when Bolivia's Justice Minister impugned a law passed by the Santa Cruz Legislative Assembly—then led by Creemos affiliates—authorizing the departmental government to designate public officials for security roles; the minister labeled it "separatist" and akin to coup actions, arguing it undermined federal authority. Similarly, in November 2021, state media outlets denounced Camacho's proposal for "real federalism" as a separatist ploy, echoing longstanding MAS narratives framing Santa Cruz autonomism as elite-driven fragmentation. In December 2022, civic groups aligned with MAS petitioned to expand criminal complaints against Camacho for separatism, citing his regionalist rhetoric, though these efforts were not pursued in his primary terrorism prosecution related to 2019 events.^[63][65][64] Such criticisms draw from Bolivia's constitutional framework, which endorses departmental autonomies via referendums (as approved in Santa Cruz in 2008 with 84% support), yet MAS proponents interpret Creemos' resistance to central resource redistribution—Santa Cruz produces over 70% of Bolivia's natural gas and soybeans—as evidence of secessionist motives rooted in ethnic and class divides between the indigenous highlands and mestizo lowlands. However, independent analyses highlight that Creemos platforms emphasize intra-federal reforms, not independence, with no documented calls for secession; accusations often originate from MAS-controlled media like Red Patria Nueva or Prensa Latina, which exhibit partisan alignment and have been critiqued for amplifying government narratives against opposition figures.^[66][10] Camacho and Creemos have rebutted these claims as politically motivated smears to suppress regional voices, pointing to Bolivia's 2009 Constitution (Article 271) guaranteeing autonomies without territorial dissolution risks, and noting that similar autonomist pushes in Tarija and Beni face less scrutiny absent Creemos' anti-MAS stance. Empirical data on regional disparities—Santa Cruz's GDP per capita exceeding national averages by 50% in 2023—underscore genuine decentralization grievances, rather than conspiratorial separatism, though critics argue Creemos' mobilization of cívico committees risks escalating to irredentism if unchecked. No peer-reviewed studies or neutral observers have substantiated active separatist plotting by Creemos, framing the discourse as a tool in Bolivia's polarized federalism debates.^[67][68]

Impact on Bolivian politics

Role in challenging MAS dominance

Creemos emerged as a significant opposition force following the 2019 political crisis, positioning itself against the long-standing dominance of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party, which had controlled Bolivia's executive and legislative branches since 2006.^[11] The alliance, centered in the eastern department of Santa Cruz—Bolivia's economic powerhouse driven by agribusiness and hydrocarbons—capitalized on regional grievances over MAS's centralist policies, perceived favoritism toward highland indigenous groups, and economic mismanagement.^[68] By advocating for departmental autonomy and federalist reforms, Creemos framed MAS rule as extractive and suppressive of regional interests, drawing support from urban middle classes, business elites, and civic movements that had mobilized against Evo Morales's disputed reelection bid.^[69] In the March 2021 subnational elections, Creemos achieved a breakthrough by securing the Santa Cruz governorship for Luis Fernando Camacho with 55.6% of the vote, defeating the MAS candidate and establishing control over the department's legislative assembly.^[14] This victory disrupted MAS's near-total grip on subnational power, as Santa Cruz accounted for approximately 30% of Bolivia's GDP through soy, beef, and natural gas exports, enabling Creemos to withhold fiscal transfers and block central government initiatives perceived as detrimental to regional development.^[70] Camacho's administration pursued policies such as infrastructure investments and tax incentives for private enterprise, contrasting with MAS's state-centric model, and thereby demonstrated a viable alternative governance approach that eroded MAS legitimacy in opposition strongholds.^[71] Creemos further challenged MAS through legal and street-level resistance, including lawsuits against federal overreach and protests against fuel shortages and currency controls under President Luis Arce's administration from 2020 onward.^[10] Despite Camacho's December 2022 arrest on sedition and terrorism charges—widely viewed by opposition analysts as politically motivated to neutralize a rising threat ahead of the 2025 general elections—Creemos maintained organizational cohesion and public mobilization in Santa Cruz, preventing MAS from regaining full subnational dominance.^[13] This resilience contributed to the MAS internal schism between Arce and Morales factions, amplifying national fragmentation that culminated in the August 2025 presidential vote, where opposition coalitions, including Creemos allies, forced a runoff and signaled the erosion of MAS's two-decade hegemony.^[72][73]

Influence on the 2025 electoral shift

Creemos contributed to the 2025 electoral shift by reinforcing opposition strongholds in Santa Cruz department, where anti-MAS mobilization remained robust despite the imprisonment of its leader, Luis Fernando Camacho. The party's organizational resilience amid Camacho's pretrial detention since December 2022 on terrorism charges—widely viewed by opponents as politically motivated—fueled perceptions of MAS overreach, amplifying voter discontent alongside economic crises such as fuel shortages and hyperinflation exceeding 10% in mid-2025. This regional dynamic helped fragment MAS support nationally, as Santa Cruz's high population and export-driven economy provided a counterweight to MAS dominance in the highlands and indigenous areas.^[8][10] In the first round on August 17, 2025, MAS's internal schism between factions backing Andrónico Rodríguez and Eduardo del Castillo split the leftist vote, allowing centrist candidate Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party to secure 32.8% and advance alongside conservative Jorge Quiroga. Creemos, having announced its presidential candidacy earlier in the year with Camacho positioned as a key figure despite incarceration, drew votes from conservative and regionalist bases that bolstered the non-MAS bloc's performance in eastern departments. The absence of a unified MAS strategy, compounded by Creemos' sustained protests and legal challenges against perceived electoral irregularities, prevented any leftist candidate from reaching the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff.^[74][75] Camacho's transfer from prison to house arrest on August 27, 2025—days after the first-round results—signaled judicial concessions amid mounting opposition pressure and MAS's underwhelming showing, further eroding confidence in the incumbent regime. While Creemos did not formally endorse either runoff contender, its voters' alignment with pro-market, anti-socialist platforms likely contributed to Paz's October 19 victory with 54% of the vote, marking the first non-MAS presidency since 2005. This outcome reflected a broader causal chain: Creemos' defiance against prosecution narratives, rooted in first-hand accounts of 2019 events, intersected with empirical failures in MAS governance, such as dollar shortages and GDP contraction estimates of 2-3% for 2025, driving a pivot toward centrist reforms.^[8][74][76]