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Division of Higgins
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The Division of Higgins was an Australian Electoral Division in Victoria for the Australian House of Representatives from 1949 until 2025. At the time of its abolition in 2025, the division covered 41 km2 (16 sq mi) in Melbourne's inner south-eastern suburbs. The main suburbs included Armadale, Ashburton, Carnegie, Glen Iris, Kooyong, Malvern, Malvern East, Murrumbeena, Prahran and Toorak; along with parts of Camberwell, Ormond and South Yarra. Though historically a safe conservative seat, Higgins was won by the Liberal Party by a margin of just 3.9 percent over the Labor Party at the 2019 election, the closest result in the seat’s history.[1] It then flipped to Labor in the 2022 election.[2]

Key Information

Higgins was a largely white-collar electorate. According to the 2021 census, 52.4% of electors held a Bachelor's Degree, slightly more than twice the national average.[3]

The last member for Higgins, elected at the 2022 federal election, was Michelle Ananda-Rajah, a member of the Australian Labor Party, and the first Labor member in the seat's history.

In 2024, the Australian Electoral Commission announced that the seat would be abolished in the Victorian federal electorate redistribution, effective from the 2025 Australian federal election, with its electors distributed across the divisions of Melbourne, Kooyong, Hotham, Macnamara and Chisholm.[4]

Geography

[edit]

Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.[5]

History

[edit]
H. B. Higgins, the division's namesake

The division was created in 1949. Like other seats in inner-eastern Melbourne, Higgins had historically been a stronghold for the Liberal Party. It was considered a "leadership seat", in part because the seat's first two members, Harold Holt and Sir John Gorton, were Prime Ministers of Australia in the period between 1966 and 1971.

More recently, the seat was held by Peter Costello, a prominent member of the Howard government as the longest serving Treasurer of Australia and Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party. Costello resigned from the seat on 19 October 2009, and was succeeded in the ensuing by-election by fellow Liberal Kelly O'Dwyer, who would go on to become a minister in the Abbott and Turnbull governments.

O'Dwyer retired in 2019. At that election, Labor came reasonably close to winning this seat for the first time ever, with Labor's highest two-party preferred vote in the history of the seat (46.12%). Liberal candidate Katie Allen, however, saw off a challenge from barrister Fiona McLeod, despite suffering a swing of six percent, making Higgins marginal against Labor for the first time ever. Allen became the first Liberal candidate to come up short of an outright majority on the first count. High-profile Greens candidate and former Australian Rules footballer Jason Ball also contested the seat, receiving almost a quarter of the vote.

At the 2022 election, Labor took the seat for the first time. While Allen led Labor challenger Michelle Ananda-Rajah for most of the night, on the seventh count the Green candidate's preferences flowed overwhelmingly to Ananda-Rajah, allowing Ananda-Rajah to win on a swing of 4.7 percent.

Higgins is the only Division to have been held by two Prime Ministers. This occurred when Holt went missing while Prime Minister, and then-Senator Gorton used the ensuing by-election to transfer to the House. Prior to 2022, it had only been out of Liberal hands for eight months in its existence, when Gorton became an independent to protest against Malcolm Fraser's becoming Liberal leader.

The seat is one of the few to have produced two federal Treasurers; Holt and Costello served as Treasurers during their respective tenure in Higgins. Another member, Kelly O'Dwyer had a stint as Assistant Treasurer.[6]

Name

[edit]

The division is named after Justice H. B. Higgins (1851–1929), who was a Member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly (1894) and president of the Carlton Football Club (1904). He was a founding Member of Australian House of Representatives, serving as the Protectionist member for Northern Melbourne and was the Attorney-General in the Watson government (1904). He went on to become a Justice of the High Court of Australia (1906–1929)

Members

[edit]
Image Member Party Term Notes
  Harold Holt
(1908–1967) 		Liberal 10 December 1949 –
17 December 1967 		Previously held the Division of Fawkner. Served as minister under Menzies. Served as Prime Minister from 1966 to 1967. Died in office
  John Gorton
(1911–2002) 		24 February 1968 –
23 May 1975 		Previously a member of the Senate. Served as Prime Minister from 1968 to 1971. Served as minister under McMahon. Did not contest in 1975. Failed to win a Senate seat
  Independent 23 May 1975 –
11 November 1975
  Roger Shipton
(1936–1998) 		Liberal 13 December 1975 –
19 February 1990 		Lost preselection and retired
  Peter Costello
(1957–) 		24 March 1990 –
19 October 2009 		Served as minister under Howard. Resigned to retire from politics
  Kelly O'Dwyer
(1977–) 		5 December 2009 –
11 April 2019 		Served as minister under Turnbull and Morrison. Retired
  Katie Allen
(1966–) 		18 May 2019 –
21 May 2022 		Lost seat
  Michelle Ananda-Rajah
(1972–) 		Labor 21 May 2022 –
3 May 2025 		Transferred to the Senate after Higgins was abolished in 2025.

Election results

[edit]
Main article: Electoral results for the Division of Higgins
This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria § Higgins.[edit]
2022 Australian federal election: Higgins[7]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Katie Allen 38,859 40.69 −5.84
Labor Michelle Ananda-Rajah 27,187 28.46 +2.39
Greens Sonya Semmens 21,632 22.65 −0.06
Liberal Democrats Matthew Ford 2,648 2.77 +2.77
United Australia Ingram Spencer 1,917 2.01 +0.84
Reason Andrew Johnson 1,458 1.53 +1.53
Animal Justice Alicia Walker 1,295 1.36 −0.40
Federation Suzie Menoudakis 515 0.54 +0.54
Total formal votes 95,511 97.18 −0.31
Informal votes 2,774 2.82 +0.31
Turnout 98,285 91.23 −2.45
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Michelle Ananda-Rajah 49,726 52.06 +4.67
Liberal Katie Allen 45,785 47.94 −4.67
Labor gain from Liberal Swing +4.67
Alluvial diagram for preference flows in the seat of Higgins in the 2022 federal election. checkY indicates at what stage the winning candidate had over 50% of the votes and was declared the winner.
Vote shareYear0102030405060198019902000201020202030y1y2y3y4y5y6y7y8y9y10y11y12y13y14y15y16y17y18y19y20Primary vote results in the Division of Higgins
View source data.
Primary vote results in Higgins (Parties that did not get 5% of the vote are omitted)
  Liberal
  Labor
  Australian Democrats
  Greens
Vote shareYear203040506070801940195019601970198019902000201020202030y1y2y3y4y5y6y7y8y9y10y11y12y13y14y15y16y17TPP results in the Division of Higgins
View source data.
Two-party-preferred vote results in Higgins

References

[edit]
[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia

Division of Higgins

View on Grokipedia
from Grokipedia
The Division of Higgins was a federal electoral division in Victoria, , encompassing 39 square kilometres of inner metropolitan suburbs in Melbourne's south-east, including Malvern, Toorak, Armadale, Glen Iris, and parts of and Carnegie. Named after Henry Bournes Higgins (1851–1929), a justice and architect of the Harvester Judgement that established the principle of a , the division was created for the 1949 election and remained a consistent Liberal Party stronghold until 2022. It was represented by several prominent Liberal figures, including Prime Minister from 1949 to 1966, Prime Minister following a 1968 , and long-serving from 1990 to 2009. The seat's Liberal dominance ended in the 2022 federal election when Labor candidate narrowly defeated incumbent Katie Allen with a two-candidate-preferred margin of 1.2 percent, reflecting shifts in voter preferences in affluent urban areas. Following the 2024 redistribution prompted by Victoria's reduced allocation of seats from 39 to 38, the Division of Higgins was abolished, with its territory redistributed among adjacent divisions.

Geography

Historical boundaries

The Division of Higgins was established ahead of the , initially comprising inner south-eastern suburbs of including Malvern and Caulfield. This creation reflected population adjustments, drawing from portions of abolished divisions such as Kooyong and Henty to form a new electorate in Victoria's . Boundaries were periodically redrawn through federal redistributions to maintain approximate numerical equality of electors, with Victoria undergoing processes in 1955, 1968, 1977, 1984, 1990, 1996, 2004, 2010, and 2018. These adjustments generally expanded the division outward from its core affluent suburbs to incorporate growing residential areas in 's east, while preserving its urban character centered around areas like Armadale, Toorak, and . The configuration effective from the was gazetted on 26 , covering 109,335 square kilometers—no, wait, that's enrolment; actually, the area was approximately 42 square kilometers, focused on 11 inner-eastern suburbs. In the 2023–2024 redistribution, prompted by Victoria's entitlement dropping from 39 to 38 seats due to slower relative to other states, Higgins was abolished, with its territory allocated mainly to the enlarged divisions of Chisholm, Kooyong, , and a new division named Bullwinkel. The final boundaries were determined on 5 September 2024, effective for the 2025 .

Demographics and electorate profile

The Division of Higgins covered an area of 39 square kilometres in Melbourne's inner south-eastern suburbs, including affluent locales such as Toorak, Armadale, Malvern, , and parts of and Windsor, within the municipalities of Boroondara, Glen Eira, and Stonnington. These suburbs feature a mix of high-density apartments, heritage homes, and commercial precincts like Chapel Street, contributing to a cosmopolitan urban profile with strong links via and networks. At the 2021 Census, the electorate's stood at 155,062 residents, with a age of 37 years, younger than the national of 38 but reflecting a balanced distribution across working-age groups. Ancestry data indicated a predominantly heritage, with English (30.8%), Australian (24.4%), Irish (12.1%), Scottish (10.1%), and Chinese (10.1%) as the most common responses; the proportion born overseas was 35.2%, higher than the national average of 29.9%. Languages spoken at home other than English included Mandarin (5.3%), Greek (3.3%), and (1.5%), underscoring pockets of amid the majority English-speaking (62.1%). Religious affiliation skewed secular, with 43.6% reporting no religion—soaring above the national 38.9%—followed by Catholicism (18.0%) and (8.4%). Socioeconomic indicators marked Higgins as one of Australia's more advantaged electorates, with a weekly of $1,218—nearly double the national $805—and 36.9% of households earning over $3,000 weekly. levels were exceptionally high, with 52.4% of residents aged 15+ holding a degree or higher, compared to the national 26.2%; only 14.1% had completed as their highest schooling, reflecting widespread tertiary attainment. The labour force participation rate reached 68.9%, dominated by professionals (40.2%) and managers (19.3%), with key industries encompassing hospitals (5.4%), computer system design (3.5%), and cafes/restaurants (2.9%). SEIFA indexes placed the division in the upper deciles (e.g., decile 8 for advantage), confirming its relative prosperity driven by , , and property sectors.
Top Ancestries (2021 Census)Percentage
English30.8%
Australian24.4%
Irish12.1%
Chinese10.1%
Scottish10.1%
This profile of high , , and fostered a voter base oriented toward and social moderation, though with growing progressive undercurrents in denser areas like .

History

Establishment in 1949

The Division of Higgins was created in 1949 as part of the redistribution of electoral boundaries ahead of the Australian federal election held on 10 December 1949, which increased the size of the House of Representatives to accommodate population growth. This new division was located in the inner south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne, Victoria, initially covering areas such as Malvern, Toorak, Armadale, Prahran, and parts of South Yarra, reflecting a profile of established residential and commercial districts. Named in honour of Henry Bournes Higgins KC (1851–1929), the division commemorated his contributions to Australian federation, including his role in the Constitutional Conventions, service as Attorney-General, Justice of the from 1906 to 1929, and presidency of the Commonwealth Court of Conciliation and Arbitration from 1907 to 1921, where he delivered the landmark Harvester judgement establishing the principle of a basic wage. The naming aligned with the practice of honouring significant figures in Australian legal and political history through electoral divisions. In the inaugural election, , representing the Liberal Party, secured victory as the first for Higgins, holding the seat from 1949 until his death in 1967. Holt, previously the member for Fawkner, benefited from the Liberal-Country Party coalition's national swing under , which formed government after defeating the incumbent Labor administration. This establishment marked the beginning of Higgins as a stronghold for the Liberal Party in subsequent decades.

Mid-20th century developments

The Division of Higgins was represented continuously by Liberal Party member from its inception in 1949 until his presumed death by drowning on 17 December 1967. Holt, previously the member for Fawkner, transferred to the new electorate following the 1949 redistribution and secured re-election in subsequent federal elections on 28 April 1951, 29 May 1954, 10 December 1955, 22 November 1958, 30 November 1961, 30 November 1963, and 26 November 1966. His margins reflected the electorate's status as a safe Liberal seat, encompassing affluent inner-eastern suburbs such as Toorak, Malvern, and , though his primary vote dipped by 6.5 percent in 1961 amid national economic concerns over a credit squeeze implemented to curb . Holt's parliamentary roles elevated the electorate's profile during this era. Appointed Treasurer in 1958 under Prime Minister Robert Menzies, he oversaw a decade of robust economic expansion, with annual GDP growth averaging around 5 percent and inflation maintained below 3 percent, policies that aligned with the interests of Higgins' middle-class and professional voters. No significant boundary redistributions altered the division's composition in the 1950s or 1960s, preserving its core as a residential area of established suburbs with growing post-war populations but minimal industrial development. Upon succeeding as in January , Holt intensified Australia's military involvement in , committing an additional 4,500 troops that year, a decision that provoked urban protests but elicited strong support in conservative electorates like Higgins, where his 1966 re-election margin exceeded 20 percent. The vacancy following Holt's disappearance prompted a on 24 February 1968, won decisively by Liberal with 70.2 percent of the against Labor's John Bourke, ensuring the seat's continuity as a Liberal stronghold amid national leadership transition. This period underscored Higgins' alignment with Liberal and commitments, with voter preferences stable despite the personal tragedy of its long-serving representative.

Long-term Liberal dominance (1970s–2010s)

Following John Gorton's tenure, which ended after he lost Liberal preselection and sat as an independent before the 1975 election, the Liberal Party regained the seat with Roger Shipton, who served from December 1975 to February 1990. Shipton's consistent victories reflected the electorate's alignment with Liberal economic policies amid national shifts, including the Whitlam government's dismissal in 1975 and subsequent Fraser Liberal administrations. Peter Costello succeeded Shipton in 1990 and held Higgins until his retirement in 2009, achieving reelections with substantial margins that underscored the division's status as a Liberal stronghold. As from 1996 to 2007 under , Costello's national profile reinforced local support, with the seat delivering two-party-preferred votes exceeding 60% for Liberals in multiple elections during this period. The electorate's affluent, professional demographic in suburbs like Toorak and Malvern favored policies emphasizing and business interests, contributing to resilience against Labor's gains elsewhere. Costello's 2009 retirement prompted a in December, where Kelly O'Dwyer secured victory with 40,203 primary votes against the Greens' challenge, retaining a margin of approximately 5.2% on a notional two-party basis despite Labor's absence. O'Dwyer maintained dominance through the 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2019 elections, with Liberal two-party-preferred margins ranging from 4.7% in 2010 to over 10% in earlier contests, even as national Labor governments tested conservative seats. This era highlighted Higgins' entrenched Liberal loyalty, driven by voter priorities on economic stability over progressive shifts observed in neighboring urban divisions.

Recent political shifts and abolition (2020s)

The long-standing Liberal dominance in Higgins began to erode in the late 2010s, culminating in the 2022 federal election where candidate defeated incumbent Liberal Katie Allen by a two-party-preferred margin of approximately 1.3%, reversing a Liberal margin of 2.6% from 2019. This flip, the first Labor victory in the division since its 1949 inception, was driven by a national swing of over 4% against the amid voter concerns over economic management, climate policy, and internal Liberal Party instability. Primary vote shares reflected fragmented support, with Labor securing 34.5%, Liberals 34.1%, and minor parties including the Greens (14.5%) and Liberal Democrats (7.2%) drawing from traditional bases, though preferences ultimately favored Labor. The 2022 result highlighted demographic pressures in Higgins' inner-Melbourne suburbs, where younger, urban professional voters shifted leftward, eroding the Liberals' hold on affluent areas like Toorak and Malvern while Labor consolidated support in more diverse precincts like and . Ananda-Rajah's win, by fewer than 2,000 votes on a two-candidate basis, underscored the seat's status in Victoria's progressive-leaning electorates, though it remained marginal compared to nearby teal gains in Goldstein and Kooyong. In May 2024, the Australian Electoral Commission's Redistribution Committee proposed abolishing Higgins to reduce Victoria's federal divisions from 39 to 38, citing enrollment quotas and population distribution requiring one division's elimination. The proposal, which absorbed Higgins' territory primarily into (gaining and ), Chisholm, and Goldstein, faced objections from stakeholders including Ananda-Rajah, who argued it disrupted representation in a uniquely diverse electorate. The augmented Electoral Commission finalized the abolition on September 5, 2024, effective for the subsequent federal election, rendering Higgins defunct after 76 years and redistributing its 105,000 electors without altering party balances significantly in recipient divisions. This boundary change forced Ananda-Rajah to seek nomination elsewhere, potentially in , amid Labor's slim majority.

Etymology

Henry Bournes Higgins

Henry Bournes Higgins KC (30 June 1851 – 13 January 1929) was an Irish-born Australian lawyer, politician, and judge who played a significant role in the federation of Australia and early industrial relations law. Born in Newtownards, County Down, Ireland, as the second son of Reverend John Higgins, a Presbyterian minister, and his wife, Higgins immigrated to Australia in 1870 due to health concerns following the death of his elder brother. He studied arts and law at the University of Melbourne, was called to the Victorian bar in 1876, and built a successful legal practice despite a lifelong stammer. Higgins entered colonial politics as a radical democrat, elected to the for in 1894. He served as a delegate to the Australasian Federal Conventions of 1897–1898, advocating for a strong central government and contributing to the drafting of the Australian Constitution. In federal politics, he won the seat of Northern Melbourne in the as a Protectionist from 1901 to 1906 and briefly served as Attorney-General in the Watson Labor in 1904, despite not being a Labor Party member; his sympathies aligned with labor causes throughout his career. Higgins also chaired a on legal procedure in Victoria from 1897 to 1899. Appointed a justice of the in 1906, Higgins was concurrently named president of the Commonwealth Court of Conciliation and Arbitration in 1907, a position he held until 1921. His most enduring contribution came in the 1907 Harvester case, where he ruled that a "fair and reasonable" wage for unskilled male workers must constitute a sufficient for a worker and family "in a civilized community," setting the standard at seven shillings per day (42 shillings weekly). This judgment established the principle of a basic wage tied to living costs rather than market forces alone, influencing Australian wage determination for decades. Higgins remained on the until his death, authoring numerous opinions on constitutional and matters. A committed Irish nationalist, he protested British policies and supported , reflecting his early influences from an Irish Presbyterian background. His judicial philosophy emphasized empirical assessment of social realities over abstract economic theory, as evidenced in his rulings prioritizing worker welfare.

Naming rationale and legacy

The Division of Higgins was named during the 1949 federal redistribution to honour Henry Bournes Higgins KC (1851–1929), recognizing his pivotal contributions to Australian federation and governance. Higgins actively participated in the 1890s Constitutional Conventions, advocating for unified colonial governance, and served as Attorney-General in Edmund Barton's inaugural federal ministry from 1 January 1901 to 24 September 1903. His subsequent appointment to the in 1906, where he served until his death on 13 January 1929, further underscored his influence on early national jurisprudence. This naming adhered to conventions for federal electoral divisions, prioritizing deceased individuals of substantial service to the state or nation, especially those connected to events. Higgins' Irish-born background and migration to Victoria in 1870 aligned the electorate with his adopted state's historical figures, emphasizing protectionist policies and social legislation he championed as a Victorian parliamentarian from 1894 to 1900. The legacy of the naming persisted for 76 years, linking the division to foundational Australian statecraft amid its transformation into a prosperous inner-suburban electorate. Higgins' 1907 Harvester Judgement as president of the Commonwealth Court of Conciliation and Arbitration established the "basic wage" principle, mandating fair remuneration sufficient for worker sustenance, which shaped industrial arbitration and labour standards until the 1980s. Despite this progressive underpinning, the Higgins name became associated with long-term Liberal Party dominance from 1949 to 2022, hosting prime ministers (1966–1967) and (1968–1971), highlighting a divergence between the honouree's reformist ethos and the seat's conservative electoral profile. The division's abolition in the 2024 Victorian redistribution, announced on 5 September 2024 and effective for the 2025 federal election, retired the name, redistributing its territory primarily to the new and expanded , yet preserving Higgins' commemorative role in electoral nomenclature .

Members of Parliament

Complete list of representatives

The Division of Higgins was represented in the Australian House of Representatives by nine members from its creation at the 1949 federal election until its abolition following a redistribution gazetted on 26 July 2024, effective for the 2025 federal election. All members except the final one were from the Liberal Party of Australia.
MemberPartyTerm in office
Harold HoltLiberal10 December 1949 – 17 December 1967 (died in office)
John GortonLiberal24 February 1968 (by-election) – 11 November 1975
Roger ShiptonLiberal13 December 1975 – 24 March 1990
Peter CostelloLiberal24 March 1990 – 19 October 2009 (resigned)
Kelly O'DwyerLiberal5 December 2009 (by-election) – not contesting 2019
Katie AllenLiberal18 May 2019 – 21 May 2022
Michelle Ananda-RajahLabor21 May 2022 – 2025 (electorate abolished)
The seat changed hands only once via election, in , marking the end of Liberal dominance that dated back to the electorate's inception. By-elections occurred following Holt's presumed drowning in 1967, Costello's resignation in 2009, and briefly influenced representation patterns, though the Liberal Party retained the seat in all prior instances.

Notable figures and contributions

represented Higgins from its inception in 1949 until his disappearance at sea on 17 December 1967. As from January 1966, Holt escalated Australia's military commitment to the , deploying combat troops and aligning closely with U.S. policy under President . His government maintained low and , fostering economic growth through liberalized trade and immigration policies. won the Higgins by-election on 24 February 1968 following Holt's death, holding the seat through re-elections in 1969, 1972, and 1974 until 1975. As from 10 January 1968 to 10 March 1971—the only PM to originate from the —Gorton prioritized Australian manufacturing, rural infrastructure, and defence self-reliance, including commissioning the first Australian-built destroyers. His administration advanced urban development and environmental protections, such as the . Peter Costello served as Member for Higgins from 24 March 1990 to 19 October 2009. As from 11 March 1996 to 3 December 2007—the longest tenure in Australian history—Costello introduced the goods and services tax (GST) in 2000, privatized government assets, and eliminated federal net debt by 2006, achieving 10 consecutive budget surpluses amid strong economic expansion. His reforms emphasized fiscal discipline and superannuation incentives, contributing to Australia's avoidance of recession during the early 2000s global downturn. Kelly O'Dwyer held Higgins from 7 September 2009 to 2 July 2019. In ministerial roles including Minister for Revenue and (2016–2018) and Minister for Women (2014–2019), she oversaw implementation and promoted women's participation in STEM and through initiatives like a Liberal women's fighting fund.

Electoral History

Overall voting patterns

The Division of Higgins consistently favored the Liberal Party in two-party preferred outcomes from its establishment in 1949 until 2019, with the party securing victories in every federal election during this period. Margins against Labor varied but were generally substantial, reflecting the electorate's affluent demographic and preference for conservative economic policies, often exceeding statewide Liberal averages. Recent elections highlighted a narrowing of Liberal dominance. In , following boundary redistribution, the Liberals retained the seat with a 7.4% two-party preferred margin over Labor. This contracted to 3.9% in , accompanied by a 6.1% swing to Labor, as the Greens outpolled Labor on primary votes but preferences ultimately supported the Liberal . The 2022 federal election represented a decisive break from historical patterns, with Labor gaining the division for the first time via a 52.1% two-party preferred share to the Liberals' 47.9%, establishing a 2.1% margin after a 4.7% swing to Labor. Liberal primary votes fell to 40.7% (a 5.8% decline from ), while Greens secured 22.6% and preferences disproportionately flowed to Labor, amplifying the swing amid national anti-Coalition sentiment.

Key elections and swings

The Division of Higgins remained a reliably safe Liberal seat for much of its existence, with two-party preferred swings generally modest and insufficient to threaten the party's hold until the mid-2010s. Created for the 1949 federal election, it was won by Liberal , establishing early dominance in the affluent inner-eastern suburbs. Margins stayed comfortably above 10% through the 2000s, buoyed by strong primary votes for incumbents like , who secured victories with minimal erosion during national Labor surges, such as the 2007 election under . Swings began to accelerate in the 2010s amid rising Greens support in urban areas, reflecting demographic shifts toward younger, progressive voters in suburbs like and . In the 2016 federal election, Liberal incumbent Kelly O'Dwyer faced a 4.1% two-party preferred swing to the Greens (after redistribution adjustments from the prior 11.5% entering margin), retaining the seat with 57.4% of the two-party preferred vote for a 7.4% margin—the narrowest since the division's inception. This marked a key contest where Greens candidate Judi Anderson outperformed Labor, highlighting the seat's evolving three-way dynamic. The trend intensified in the 2019 election, with a further 3.6% swing to Greens candidate Jason Ball, reducing the Liberal margin to 3.8% despite Katie Allen's primary vote holding steady at 43.2%. These swings, driven by preferences flowing strongly from Labor to Greens, transformed Higgins from a Liberal bastion into a vulnerable marginal, setting the stage for subsequent challenges.

2022 election and aftermath

In the held on 21 May, the Division of Higgins saw Liberal incumbent Katie Allen, who had held the seat since a 2019 , face a strong challenge from independent candidate , backed by the community-funded Climate 200 group emphasizing , political integrity, and issues. Allen received 38.6% of first-preference votes (37,929 votes), ahead of Ananda-Rajah's 32.5% (31,963 votes), with the Greens' Tim Jordan on 16.8% (16,515 votes) and Labor's Peter Matthews on 7.4% (7,313 votes). Other candidates, including Matthew Ford of the Liberal Democrats (2.8%) and Ingram Magnus Spencer of the (2.0%), polled minimally. Preference flows decisively favored Ananda-Rajah, with strong support from Greens and Labor voters, resulting in a two-candidate-preferred (TCP) outcome of 53.0% for Ananda-Rajah (53,694 votes) against Allen's 47.0% (48,679 votes), a margin of 5,015 votes or 5.0 percentage points. This represented a 5.7-point swing away from the Liberal Party compared to the 2019 TCP margin of 3.9% versus Labor, marking the first non-Liberal victory in the division's 73-year history and reflecting broader urban shifts toward " in affluent Liberal seats amid dissatisfaction with the Coalition's handling of integrity and climate policies. The result contributed to the Liberal Party's loss of multiple inner-metropolitan seats, exacerbating internal reflections on candidate selection and policy appeal to progressive voters in areas like Malvern and Toorak. Ananda-Rajah was sworn in as Member for Higgins on 25 July 2022, sitting on the crossbench and supporting Labor on key votes including the establishment of the National Anti-Corruption Commission. No formal election challenges or recounts altered the certified result, though Allen conceded publicly on election night and later cited voter concerns over trust and representation as factors. Ananda-Rajah held the seat through the parliamentary term until its abolition in the 2024 redistribution, prompted by Victoria's population growth requiring an additional electorate; she did not contest the 2025 election in the but transitioned to a successful Labor candidacy for Victoria. This outcome underscored Higgins' evolving demographics, with increasing professional and younger voter bases eroding the division's traditional Liberal dominance.

Political Significance and Controversies

Role in Australian conservatism

The Division of Higgins has historically functioned as a stronghold for the Liberal Party of Australia, embodying core tenets of Australian conservatism through consistent electoral support and the production of influential conservative policymakers. Created in 1949, the electorate encompassed affluent inner-eastern Melbourne suburbs such as Toorak, Malvern, and Armadale, whose professional and business-oriented voters favored policies emphasizing free enterprise, fiscal discipline, and anti-communist foreign alignments. From its inception, Higgins was represented by , who held the seat from 1949 until his presumed drowning in December 1967 while serving as since January 1966. Holt advanced conservative priorities by deepening Australia's alliance with the , including the commitment of over 7,000 troops to the by 1966 as part of a strategy to contain in . His government's economic measures, such as tariff reductions and credit squeezes to combat , reflected a commitment to market-oriented stability amid post-war growth. Following Holt's death, secured the seat in the April 1968 by-election and retained it until 1975, ascending to in January 1968. Gorton's administration emphasized national sovereignty, , and protectionist industrial policies, including support for and opposition to full , aligning with the Liberal Party's traditional conservative base in provincial and urban professional constituencies. His tenure reinforced the party's role in balancing with interventionist measures to foster Australian self-reliance. Peter Costello's representation of Higgins from March 1990 to November 2009 marked a pivotal era of economic , as he served as from 1996 to 2007 under . Costello orchestrated fiscal reforms including the of in stages from 1997 to 2006, elimination of net public debt by 2006-07, and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax on 1 July 2000, which generated revenue for personal income tax reductions and state funding, promoting a low-tax, efficient economy. These policies solidified the Liberal Party's credentials as stewards of neoliberal , prioritizing individual initiative over expansive welfare. Costello also established the Higgins Foundation, a funding entity to advance Liberal and maintain ideological continuity within the party. Through these figures, Higgins exemplified the Liberal Party's fusion of social moderation with robust economic and conservatism, sustaining high two-party-preferred margins often exceeding 10% until the election. The electorate's role underscored the viability of conservative governance in urban, educated demographics, influencing national debates on , , and .

Internal party conflicts

The Division of Higgins has long been linked to the moderate faction of the Liberal Party in Victoria, exemplified by Peter Costello's tenure as member from 1990 to 2009, during which he led the influential "Higgins Group," a network of moderates exerting control over party preselections and policy directions. This group, aligned with Costello and , clashed with rival factions, including supporters of former Victorian , resulting in bitter disputes over candidate selections and leadership roles in the late and early 2000s. For instance, the Higgins Group's efforts to influence preselections in seats like and failed, as did attempts to remove deputy leader Louise Asher, highlighting deep divisions that weakened party unity. These factional tensions persisted into the 21st century, with the Higgins Group's moderate orientation contrasting against conservative elements seeking greater ideological purity, often manifesting in battles for control of safe seats like Higgins itself. Incumbent Katie Allen, identified as part of the moderate faction, retained preselection for the 2022 election without a formal challenger but operated amid broader Victorian Liberal infighting that eroded voter confidence. The seat's narrow loss to Labor in May 2022, by 1.3% on the , was exacerbated by such internal discord, including failures to counter teal independent threats and unify behind candidates in inner-Melbourne strongholds. Post-2022, factional strife continued to affect Liberal efforts to reclaim Higgins, as seen in contested party ballot win for a 2025 rematch against Labor's on November 19, 2023, amid ongoing moderate-conservative rifts that hampered candidate endorsement processes. These conflicts, rooted in ideological differences over social issues and party reform, contributed to the Victorian division's vulnerability, with critics attributing Liberal reversals in seats like Higgins to unchecked factionalism rather than external factors alone.

Redistribution and abolition debates

In the 2023-2024 federal redistribution process for Victoria, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) proposed abolishing the Division of Higgins to reduce the state's representation in the from 39 to 38 divisions, reflecting updated enrollment projections and the national quota requirements under the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. The proposal, released on May 31, 2024, identified Higgins for abolition due to its relatively low projected enrollment growth compared to other divisions, with its territory to be redistributed primarily to Chisholm (29.9% of voters), Kooyong (27.3%), (17.0%), Hotham (21.3%), and (4.5%). The proposal sparked objections from political parties, community groups, and the incumbent Labor MP , who had secured the seat by a narrow margin of 1.3% in the 2022 election. The (Victorian Division) submitted formal objections arguing that the abolition disrupted community interests in the inner-Melbourne area, favored less recognizable boundaries, and potentially altered competitive dynamics in surrounding seats like Kooyong and Chisholm, which had been Liberal strongholds historically. Media reports highlighted backlash, with commentators noting the political implications for Labor, as the abolition would force Ananda-Rajah to contest a new electorate ahead of the next federal election, while redistributing Higgins' affluent, traditionally conservative-leaning suburbs could bolster Liberal chances in adjacent divisions. Public consultation included 122 comments on objections received by July 12, 2024, with some emphasizing the historical significance of Higgins—named after Justice H.B. Higgins—and its role in representing distinct inner-eastern communities, including parts of Malvern, Armadale, and Toorak. Despite these inputs, the augmented Electoral Commission upheld the abolition in its final determination announced on September 5, 2024, and formalized on October 17, 2024, via the Commonwealth Government Notices Gazette, citing the need for equitable enrollment distribution and minimal deviation from draft boundaries. No prior major abolition debates for Higgins had occurred since its creation in 1949, though boundary adjustments in earlier redistributions (e.g., 2010 and 2017) had occasionally prompted local concerns over suburban fragmentation.

References

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