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Open interest
Open interest
Open interest
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Open interest (also known as open contracts or open commitments) refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled (offset by delivery).[1]

For each buyer of a futures contract there must be a seller. From the time the buyer or seller opens the contract until the counter-party closes it, that contract is considered 'open'.[2]

Open interest also gives key information regarding the liquidity of an option. If there is no open interest for an option, there is no secondary market for that option. When options have large open interest, they have a large number of buyers and sellers. An active secondary market will increase the odds of getting option orders filled at good prices. All other things being equal, the larger the open interest, the easier it will be to trade that option at a reasonable spread between the bid and ask.[3]

As a confirming indicator

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An increase in open interest along with an increase in price is said by proponents of technical analysis[4] to confirm an upward trend. Similarly, an increase in open interest along with a decrease in price confirms a downward trend. An increase or decrease in prices while open interest remains flat or declining may indicate a possible trend reversal.

The relationship between the prevailing price trend and open interest can be summarized by the following table:[5][6]

Price Open Interest Interpretation
Rising Rising Market is strong
Rising Falling Market is weakening
Falling Rising Market is strengthening
Falling Falling Market is weak

References

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Open interest

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from Grokipedia
Open interest is the total number of outstanding futures or options contracts that have not yet been closed, exercised, delivered, or expired at the end of a , representing the aggregate of all open long and short positions in the market. This metric applies to markets, where it equals the number of contracts held by market participants, with every long position matched by a corresponding short position. This concept also applies to cryptocurrency futures markets, where open interest measures the total number of outstanding crypto futures contracts, and increasing open interest can indicate growing market momentum and potential price direction. Open interest is calculated by exchanges and clearing houses daily: it increases by one contract when a new buyer and new seller enter the market to open positions, remains unchanged when an existing long and existing short close their positions against each other, and decreases by one contract when an existing long and existing short both close without a new opening . For options, open interest includes both calls and puts across various strikes and expirations, and in combined futures-options reports, option positions are converted to futures-equivalent positions using delta factors to assess overall exposure. Gross open interest sums all positions across accounts, while net open interest nets longs and shorts per participant before aggregation, providing insights into total versus clearing house risk. In financial markets, open interest serves as a key indicator of , trader commitment, and trend strength: rising open interest alongside price movements suggests sustained directional interest and potential trend continuation, while declining open interest may signal weakening or position unwinding. It is distinct from trading , which measures daily transactions, as open interest reflects the standing backlog of contracts and helps traders assess market participation levels. Regulatory bodies like the U.S. (CFTC) publish weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports breaking down open interest by trader categories—such as commercials, non-commercials, and non-reportables—to reveal positioning and potential influences on prices. High open interest in major products, including futures like and Treasuries, underscores its role in evaluating overall market activity and risk.

Fundamentals

Definition

Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding futures or options s held by market participants at the end of a that have not yet been closed, exercised, or expired. This metric provides a snapshot of the contracts actively in play within markets, reflecting the level of ongoing commitment from buyers and sellers. Each such represents an agreement between two parties—one taking a long position (betting on increase) and the other a short position (betting on decrease)—but open interest tallies each contract only once, irrespective of the position type. Open interest is a key measure in derivatives trading, where futures and options serve as financial instruments deriving value from underlying assets like commodities, currencies, or indices. Unlike trading volume, which counts the number of contracts exchanged during a session, open interest focuses solely on unsettled positions carried forward. The concept emerged alongside the growth of organized futures exchanges in the , such as the , founded in 1848 and introducing standardized futures contracts in 1865. Exchanges began systematically tracking open interest in the late through clearing processes, while regulatory oversight of large trader positions started in the early with the Grain Futures Administration's reporting system established in 1923, which required daily position reports to monitor market activity. This laid the foundation for modern oversight, evolving into monthly Commitments of Traders reports by 1962.

Relation to Trading Volume

Trading volume represents the total number of futures or options contracts that are bought and sold during a specific period, such as a , with each transaction counted once regardless of whether it initiates a new position or closes an existing one. In contrast, open interest measures the total number of outstanding contracts that have not yet been settled, exercised, or closed at the end of the , serving as a snapshot of the market's unsettled positions rather than the flow of activity. While trading volume captures the daily influx of market activity, open interest reflects the cumulative stock of positions; a single trade can affect open interest by increasing it (if both parties are opening new positions), decreasing it (if both are closing existing positions), or leaving it unchanged (if one party is closing while the other is opening). The following table illustrates common trade scenarios and their impacts on both metrics, assuming a single trade for simplicity:
ScenarioDescriptionImpact on Impact on Open Interest
New positions openedA new buyer and a new seller enter the market, creating a fresh .+1+1
Positions closedAn existing long holder sells to an existing short holder, offsetting both positions.+1-1
Position transferAn existing long holder sells to a new short holder (or vice versa), closing one position while opening another.+1Unchanged
Exchanges such as CME Group report both trading volume and open interest daily, typically after the settlement period, providing traders with complementary data to gauge market liquidity and participation levels. In the context of options markets, particularly for US stock options, the relationship between trading volume and open interest can vary significantly on expiration days, such as weekly Fridays or the monthly Options Expiration (OPEX) on the third Friday of the month. On these days, trading volume typically surges several times above normal levels due to concentrated closing, rolling, or adjusting of positions, often equaling or exceeding open interest. This contrasts with the days leading up to expiration, where open interest is typically much higher relative to volume during holding phases. Post-expiration, open interest resets to zero as positions are closed or exercised.

Calculation

Daily Updates

Open interest begins at zero upon the inception of a derivatives contract and is subsequently tallied by clearinghouses, such as those operated by CME Group, at the conclusion of each trading session to reflect the net addition or reduction in outstanding positions. This daily reconciliation ensures that open interest accurately represents the total number of unsettled contracts held by market participants. The rules governing changes in open interest are straightforward: it increases by one unit for each new long-short pair established through opening s, decreases by one unit for each offsetting that closes existing positions, and remains unchanged for position transfers between existing holders without closure or creation of new s. For instance, if Trader A sells a to Trader B, who is opening a new position, open interest rises by one; conversely, if Trader B later sells back to Trader A to close the position, it falls by one. To illustrate these mechanics, consider the net impact of daily trading activity on open interest, which differs from trading that simply counts all transactions executed that day. The following table summarizes common scenarios:
ScenarioTrades Executed ImpactOpen Interest Impact
New positions opened (e.g., 100 contracts)100 opening trades+100+100
Positions closed (e.g., 50 contracts)50 closing trades+50-50
Position transfers (e.g., 20 contracts)20 transfer trades+200
Mixed day (100 opened, 50 closed)150 trades total+150+50
In the mixed-day example, open interest rises by 50 despite higher , highlighting the net effect of creations minus closures. For most exchanges, open interest is updated and published daily following the close of trading, with intraday estimates being uncommon due to the need for complete settlement data; it is reset to zero at contract expiration when all positions are settled or rolled over. The U.S. further aggregates this data into weekly reports released every Friday.

Settlement Process

The settlement of open interest in futures and options s occurs at contract maturity, where all outstanding positions must be resolved to ensure market integrity and finality. This process primarily involves two types: physical delivery and cash settlement. In physical delivery, the seller fulfills the contract by transferring the underlying asset to the buyer, as seen in commodities like crude oil futures on the CME, where barrels of oil are delivered to designated locations. Conversely, cash settlement resolves positions financially without asset transfer, based on the difference between the contract and a final settlement derived from , such as the index value for stock index futures. Open interest plays a central role in this resolution, representing the total number of unsettled contracts that must be closed out by expiration. Positions can be offset through opposing trades before the close, exercised (for options), or settled via delivery or cash payment; upon completion, open interest for the expiring contract falls to zero as no positions remain outstanding. This ensures all obligations are met, preventing carryover into subsequent periods. The procedures are overseen by clearing organizations acting as central counterparties to guarantee performance. For futures, CME Clearing manages settlement, determining final prices and handling deliveries or cash adjustments. For options, the (OCC) processes exercises and assignments, notifying parties and facilitating share or cash transfers. Key timelines include the last trading day, the final opportunity to trade or offset positions, and the first notice day, when sellers in physical delivery contracts can issue delivery notices to initiate the process. A historical example illustrating physical delivery and process evolution is the 1987 CME live futures settlement. Under the contract's terms, issued three-day notices via a certificate system (introduced in 1983 to reduce redeliveries), leading to delivery of approximately 40,000 pounds of fed steers at approved yards like Omaha or Sioux City; this highlighted ongoing challenges with grading and location, spurring debates on potential shifts toward cash settlement for better convergence.

Market Implications

Trend Confirmation

In futures and options markets, changes in open interest are analyzed alongside price movements to confirm the strength and sustainability of trends. When prices are rising and open interest is simultaneously increasing, this pattern signals strong bullish confirmation, reflecting new buying interest from market participants entering long positions and supporting a sustained uptrend. Conversely, falling prices accompanied by rising open interest indicate bearish confirmation, as the increase in open positions suggests new short selling activity that reinforces the downtrend through heightened selling pressure. In neutral or weaker scenarios, rising prices paired with stable or declining open interest imply a lack of in the uptrend, often due to short-covering by existing holders rather than fresh capital inflows, which may signal impending exhaustion. Similarly, falling prices with stable or declining open interest point to potential or position closures, such as long unwinding, rather than committed new selling, reducing the downtrend's momentum. Empirical studies from the onward have validated open interest's role as a trend confirmer, particularly when weighted against trading , demonstrating its ability to predict persistent movements and economic activity signals in futures markets. For instance, Bessembinder and Seguin (1992) analyzed U.S. futures data, including commodities traded on exchanges like NYMEX, and found that unanticipated increases in open interest correlate with elevated volatility, beyond what alone explains. More recent work by Hong and Yogo (2012) extends this to commodity futures, showing open interest as a superior predictor of asset directions compared to , with from diverse markets confirming its utility in validating bullish and bearish trends.

Divergence Signals

Divergences between changes in open interest and price movements serve as indicators of potential trend reversals or weakening in futures and options markets. In a bullish divergence, falling prices accompanied by decreasing open interest suggest that short positions are being covered, reducing selling pressure and hinting at a possible market bottom. This pattern implies that the downward momentum is losing steam as fewer new short contracts are opened, potentially signaling an upcoming reversal to the upside. Conversely, a bearish occurs when prices are rising but open interest is declining, indicating that long positions are being liquidated through profit-taking rather than new buying interest emerging. This lack of fresh capital inflow points to trend exhaustion, where the uptrend may soon falter as participants exit rather than reinforce the rally. These divergence signals gain greater reliability when integrated with declining trading volume, as the combined reduction in both open interest and volume underscores diminishing participation and conviction in the prevailing price direction. Unlike trend confirmation, where open interest rises in tandem with price to validate , divergences highlight opposing dynamics that may foreshadow shifts. However, open interest divergences are not reliably predictive on their own and must be corroborated with other technical or fundamental indicators to mitigate false signals. False positives are particularly common in low-liquidity markets, where thin trading can amplify distortions in open interest data and lead to misleading interpretations. The CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, which aggregate trader positions representing only 70-90% of total open interest, further underscore these limitations by providing incomplete coverage that can obscure true market dynamics in less active segments.

Applications

In Futures Markets

In futures markets, open interest plays a crucial role in assessing the balance between speculative and hedging activities among participants. Traders and analysts use it to gauge whether increased trading reflects new positions driven by or hedging needs, as higher open interest often correlates with greater . This metric helps distinguish commercial hedgers, who use futures to mitigate price risks in underlying commodities, from non-commercial speculators seeking profit from price movements. Regulatory oversight enhances the utility of open interest in futures by providing detailed breakdowns. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes daily large trader reports and weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, which categorize open interest into commercial (hedgers) and non-commercial (speculators) positions, along with non-reportable smaller traders. These reports, continued and expanded by the CFTC after its establishment in 1974, offer transparency into market composition and potential influences on price trends. High open interest in these categories indicates robust liquidity, enabling large institutional trades with reduced slippage— the difference between expected and actual execution prices—due to ample counterparties. A practical illustration is the (NYMEX) crude (CL), where open interest surged to peaks near 4 million contracts amid the 2020 triggered by the Russia-Saudi Arabia production dispute and . This elevated open interest reflected hedging by producers and refiners alongside speculative bets on recovery, underscoring the market's during extreme volatility. However, such high concentrations can also heighten risks; for instance, during the 1998 (LTCM) crisis, the rapid unwinding of the hedge fund's sizable futures positions—representing significant portions of open interest in various markets—amplified price swings and liquidity strains across global futures exchanges.

In Cryptocurrency Futures Markets

In cryptocurrency futures markets, open interest measures the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as those for Bitcoin or Ethereum, that have not been settled or closed. This metric provides insights into market participation and liquidity in the rapidly growing crypto derivatives sector. Increasing open interest, particularly when accompanied by rising prices, can indicate strengthening market momentum and potential continuation of the price direction, as it suggests new capital entering the market through fresh positions. Conversely, declining open interest alongside price movements may signal weakening trends or position unwinding. Major exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) offer regulated Bitcoin and Ether futures, where open interest data helps traders assess sentiment; for example, CME's Bitcoin futures open interest reached over 20,000 contracts in early 2021 during a bull run, reflecting heightened speculative interest. Similarly, platforms like Binance report daily open interest for perpetual futures contracts, aiding in momentum analysis without physical delivery.

In Options Markets

In options markets, open interest is tracked on a granular level for each specific contract series, defined by the underlying asset, , , and whether it is a call or . This detailed reporting allows market participants to monitor and potential price levels of interest across various maturities and exercise prices. The (OCC), which clears all U.S. listed options, provides daily open interest data disaggregated by these parameters, covering the past 24 months of trading activity to reflect ongoing positions in the market. High open interest at particular strike prices often serves as a magnet for the underlying asset's , acting as potential support or resistance levels due to the concentration of hedging and gamma-related activities by market makers. Heavy call open interest at certain strikes acts as potential resistance, as short call dealers buy the underlying spot as price rises toward those strikes to hedge their positions, with this buying pressure tapering off near the strike and stalling upward momentum. However, high short call open interest forms a perceived "call wall" that acts as resistance; if the stock price breaks through this level, it triggers dealers' additional hedging buys in the underlying stock, which can fuel further upside momentum, and once breached, the options activity amplifies the upward trend rather than resisting it. This phenomenon underpins the "max pain" , which posits that the of the underlying tends to gravitate toward the strike with the highest aggregate open interest in both calls and puts, as this minimizes payouts for option writers and causes the maximum number of contracts to expire worthless. Empirical analysis supports this pattern, showing predictable price reversals toward high open interest strikes near expiration, particularly for stocks with significant options activity. The put/call open interest ratio further aids in gauging market sentiment in options trading, calculated as the total open interest in put options divided by that in call options for a given underlying or index. A ratio greater than 1 signals bearish bias, indicating more protective or speculative downside positions, while a value below 1 suggests bullish sentiment. Data from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) illustrates this, with ratios often spiking above 1 prior to major events like corporate earnings announcements, reflecting heightened hedging demand. Additionally, the volume-based Put-Call Ratio (PCR), which divides the trading volume of put options by that of call options, complements this open interest-based measure by providing insights into short-term trading activity and sentiment. A PCR greater than 1 indicates bearish market sentiment, with more puts traded than calls, often signaling investor caution or expectations of price declines. In such bearish conditions, traders typically employ general risk management practices, including strict stop-loss orders, proper position sizing, and avoidance of over-leveraged positions to mitigate potential losses. Option sellers might prefer high PCR zones for premium collection due to elevated put premiums, while buyers require clear trend confirmation to avoid contrarian risks. Options expiration cycles amplify the role of open interest, particularly on "quad witching" days—the third Friday of , , , and December—when stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock futures, and single-stock options expire simultaneously, leading to massive rollovers of positions into new contracts. For US stock options, expiration days typically occur weekly on Fridays or monthly on the third Friday (known as OPEX), where trading volume usually surges significantly, often several times normal levels and frequently equaling or exceeding open interest due to concentrated closing, rolling, or adjusting of positions. High open interest relative to volume is more common in the days leading up to expiration during holding phases, but open interest resets to zero post-expiration via closing or exercise. These events drive elevated trading volumes and volatility in underlying stocks as traders unwind or rebalance large open interest concentrations. In the aftermath of the , which heightened regulatory scrutiny on derivatives expirations, these events underscore the potential to exacerbate market stress during recovery periods. Unlike futures open interest, which tracks a single standardized per without directional subtypes, options open interest encompasses both calls and puts, providing a more nuanced view of bullish and bearish exposures within the same underlying. Upon exercise, in-the-money options can result in the creation of offsetting futures positions if the options are on futures , thereby transferring open interest from the options market to the futures market and influencing overall positioning. This interplay distinguishes options dynamics, where expiration exercises can dynamically alter futures open interest levels.

References

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