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Self-replicating spacecraft
The concept of self-replicating spacecraft, as envisioned by mathematician John von Neumann, has been described by futurists and has been discussed across a wide breadth of hard science fiction novels and stories. Self-replicating probes are sometimes referred to as von Neumann probes. Self-replicating spacecraft would in some ways either mimic or echo the features of living organisms or viruses.
Von Neumann argued that the most effective way of performing large-scale mining operations such as mining an entire moon or asteroid belt would be by self-replicating spacecraft, taking advantage of their exponential growth. In theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighboring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original "parent" probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed.
Given this pattern, and its similarity to the reproduction patterns of bacteria, it has been pointed out that von Neumann machines might be considered a form of life. In his short story "Lungfish", David Brin touches on this idea, pointing out that self-replicating machines launched by different species might actually compete with one another (in a Darwinistic fashion) for raw material, or even have conflicting missions. Given enough variety of "species" they might even form a type of ecology, or – should they also have a form of artificial intelligence – a society. They may even mutate with thousands of "generations."
The first quantitative engineering analysis of such a spacecraft was published in 1980 by Robert Freitas, in which the non-replicating Project Daedalus design was modified to include all subsystems necessary for self-replication. The design's strategy was to use the probe to deliver a "seed" factory with a mass of about 443 tons to a distant site, have the seed factory produce many copies of itself there to increase its total manufacturing capacity over a 500-year period, and then use the resulting automated industrial complex to construct more probes with a single seed factory on board each.
It has been theorized that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an "average cruising speed" of 0.1c.) could spread throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years.
In 1981, Frank Tipler put forth an argument that extraterrestrial intelligences do not exist, based on the fact that von Neumann probes have not been observed. Given even a moderate rate of replication and the history of the galaxy, such probes should already be common throughout space and thus, we should have already encountered them. Because we have not, this shows that extraterrestrial intelligences do not exist. This is thus a resolution to the Fermi paradox – that is, the question of why we have not already encountered extraterrestrial intelligence if it is common throughout the universe.
A response came from Carl Sagan and William Newman. Now known as Sagan's Response,[citation needed] it pointed out that in fact Tipler had underestimated the rate of replication, and that von Neumann probes should have already started to consume most of the mass in the galaxy. Any intelligent race would therefore, Sagan and Newman reasoned, not design von Neumann probes in the first place, and would try to destroy any von Neumann probes found as soon as they were detected. As Robert Freitas has pointed out, the assumed capacity of von Neumann probes described by both sides of the debate is unlikely in reality, and more modestly reproducing systems are unlikely to be observable in their effects on the Solar System or the galaxy as a whole.
Another objection to the prevalence of von Neumann probes is that civilizations that could potentially create such devices may have a high probability of self-destruction before being capable of producing such machines. This could be through events such as biological or nuclear warfare, nanoterrorism, resource exhaustion, ecological catastrophe, or pandemics. This obstacle to the creation of von Neumann probes is one potential candidate for the concept of a Great Filter.
Hub AI
Self-replicating spacecraft AI simulator
(@Self-replicating spacecraft_simulator)
Self-replicating spacecraft
The concept of self-replicating spacecraft, as envisioned by mathematician John von Neumann, has been described by futurists and has been discussed across a wide breadth of hard science fiction novels and stories. Self-replicating probes are sometimes referred to as von Neumann probes. Self-replicating spacecraft would in some ways either mimic or echo the features of living organisms or viruses.
Von Neumann argued that the most effective way of performing large-scale mining operations such as mining an entire moon or asteroid belt would be by self-replicating spacecraft, taking advantage of their exponential growth. In theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighboring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original "parent" probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed.
Given this pattern, and its similarity to the reproduction patterns of bacteria, it has been pointed out that von Neumann machines might be considered a form of life. In his short story "Lungfish", David Brin touches on this idea, pointing out that self-replicating machines launched by different species might actually compete with one another (in a Darwinistic fashion) for raw material, or even have conflicting missions. Given enough variety of "species" they might even form a type of ecology, or – should they also have a form of artificial intelligence – a society. They may even mutate with thousands of "generations."
The first quantitative engineering analysis of such a spacecraft was published in 1980 by Robert Freitas, in which the non-replicating Project Daedalus design was modified to include all subsystems necessary for self-replication. The design's strategy was to use the probe to deliver a "seed" factory with a mass of about 443 tons to a distant site, have the seed factory produce many copies of itself there to increase its total manufacturing capacity over a 500-year period, and then use the resulting automated industrial complex to construct more probes with a single seed factory on board each.
It has been theorized that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an "average cruising speed" of 0.1c.) could spread throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years.
In 1981, Frank Tipler put forth an argument that extraterrestrial intelligences do not exist, based on the fact that von Neumann probes have not been observed. Given even a moderate rate of replication and the history of the galaxy, such probes should already be common throughout space and thus, we should have already encountered them. Because we have not, this shows that extraterrestrial intelligences do not exist. This is thus a resolution to the Fermi paradox – that is, the question of why we have not already encountered extraterrestrial intelligence if it is common throughout the universe.
A response came from Carl Sagan and William Newman. Now known as Sagan's Response,[citation needed] it pointed out that in fact Tipler had underestimated the rate of replication, and that von Neumann probes should have already started to consume most of the mass in the galaxy. Any intelligent race would therefore, Sagan and Newman reasoned, not design von Neumann probes in the first place, and would try to destroy any von Neumann probes found as soon as they were detected. As Robert Freitas has pointed out, the assumed capacity of von Neumann probes described by both sides of the debate is unlikely in reality, and more modestly reproducing systems are unlikely to be observable in their effects on the Solar System or the galaxy as a whole.
Another objection to the prevalence of von Neumann probes is that civilizations that could potentially create such devices may have a high probability of self-destruction before being capable of producing such machines. This could be through events such as biological or nuclear warfare, nanoterrorism, resource exhaustion, ecological catastrophe, or pandemics. This obstacle to the creation of von Neumann probes is one potential candidate for the concept of a Great Filter.