2028

2028 (MMXXVIII) is a leap year starting on Saturday in the Gregorian calendar, the 2028th year of the Common Era (CE) and Anno Domini (AD) designations, and the 28th year of the 3rd millennium and 21st century.^[1][2] The year will be marked by major international sporting events, including the Summer Olympics and Paralympics hosted in Los Angeles, California, from July 14 to 30, featuring over 55 sports and more than 800 events across venues in the region.^[3][4] This will be the third time Los Angeles hosts the Summer Games, with additions such as flag football and squash debuting as Olympic sports, alongside a U.S. presidential task force established to coordinate federal support.^[5] In politics, the United States will hold its 61st quadrennial presidential election on November 7, determining the president and vice president to serve from January 20, 2029, to 2033, with early candidate filings already registered via the Federal Election Commission.^[6][7] Other global developments include the planned relocation of Indonesia's capital to Nusantara, though timelines remain subject to implementation challenges.^[8] Scientific and technological milestones anticipated include efforts by Colossal Biosciences to produce the first hybrid woolly mammoths via de-extinction techniques, building on genetic engineering advances.^[8] The year also aligns with projections for peak cheap oil and rising adoption of advanced transportation networks, driven by empirical trends in energy markets and infrastructure.^[8]

Politics and Elections

United States Presidential Election

The 2028 United States presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028, the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November as established by federal law, to elect the president and vice president for a four-year term beginning at noon on January 20, 2029.^[6] The electoral process includes state primaries and caucuses starting in early 2028, typically led by the Iowa caucuses in January or February, followed by delegate selection through national party conventions in the summer to nominate candidates.^[9] Voter turnout and outcomes will hinge on key battleground states, with the winner determined by securing 270 electoral votes from the 538 total, reflecting apportionment based on the 2020 census until the post-2030 reapportionment.^[10] Incumbent President Donald Trump, having served two non-consecutive terms including his 2024 victory, is constitutionally barred from seeking reelection under the 22nd Amendment, which limits any person to election as president no more than twice regardless of term continuity.^[11] This constraint shifts Republican focus to successors aligned with Trump's policy legacy, while Democrats seek to regroup after 2024 losses amid internal debates on progressive versus centrist platforms. Early betting markets as of October 2025 position Vice President J.D. Vance as the Republican frontrunner with odds around 28-30%, followed by figures like Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio, reflecting empirical trader assessments of electability tied to Midwestern appeal and policy continuity on trade and energy.^{[12] [13]} For Democrats, California Governor Gavin Newsom leads with 16-17% odds, alongside Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and potential holdover Kamala Harris, though markets discount Harris due to prior electoral underperformance.^{[14] [15]} Hypothetical matchup polls in October 2025 indicate a tight race between Vance and Newsom, with Vance edging out on voter preference amid Republican advantages in economic sentiment.^[16] Empirical surveys highlight economic growth and border security as dominant voter priorities, with the economy cited as the top issue influencing presidential choice and immigration concerns rising post-2024 enforcement actions.^{[17] [18]} These factors underscore causal drivers like inflation trends and migration flows, where deregulation and enforcement have correlated with improved public approval ratings for the administration, potentially favoring candidates emphasizing measurable outcomes over ideological signaling.^[19] Betting odds, less susceptible to media narrative biases than traditional polls, consistently project Republican advantages if current trajectories in GDP recovery and reduced illegal crossings persist.^[20]

Other National and International Elections

In Taiwan, the presidential election is scheduled for January 2028 to select the successor to incumbent President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, whose single four-year term concludes that year.^[21] This direct popular vote, held concurrently with legislative elections, determines the head of state and government for a nation facing persistent military pressures from the People's Republic of China, with voter priorities historically centering on national security enhancements and supply chain diversification to mitigate economic vulnerabilities exposed by prior trade disruptions.^[21] Turnout in the 2024 presidential contest reached approximately 71.8%, reflecting sustained civic engagement amid geopolitical strains, though debates persist over electoral reforms such as two-round voting systems proposed by opposition lawmakers to address plurality wins.^[21] The Philippines will hold its general election on the second Monday of May 2028, including the presidential race to replace term-limited incumbent Ferdinand Marcos Jr., alongside contests for half the Senate seats, all House positions, and provincial offices.^[22] With the presidency carrying a non-renewable six-year term, the vote occurs against a backdrop of fiscal challenges, including public debt exceeding 60% of GDP as of 2024, prompting campaigns likely to emphasize infrastructure spending balanced against deficit reduction efforts informed by post-pandemic recovery data showing average annual growth of 5.6% from 2022-2024.^[22] Historical turnout hovers around 80% in national polls, with policy foci often contrasting market-oriented reforms for foreign investment against populist measures on poverty alleviation, as evidenced by shifts in voter preferences during the 2022 cycle. Australia's federal election must occur by May 2028 at the latest, electing all 150 members of the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 senators, under the fixed three-year parliamentary term framework established post-2021 reforms.^[23] The timing allows the prime minister discretion within constitutional bounds, amid economic indicators like inflation stabilizing below 3% by mid-2025 and unemployment at historic lows, influencing debates on fiscal restraint versus targeted spending in sectors such as housing affordability and energy transition.^[23] Voter participation consistently surpasses 90% due to compulsory voting, with prior cycles highlighting tensions between resource export reliance and diversification strategies to counter commodity price volatility. In Georgia, parliamentary elections are set for October 26, 2028, as affirmed by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze amid opposition demands for earlier polls following the disputed 2024 vote, which secured a supermajority for the Georgian Dream party despite allegations of irregularities.^{[24] [25]} The 150-seat unicameral legislature election uses a mixed system, with 2028's contest potentially shaping foreign policy orientations given the government's 2024 decision to pause EU accession talks until 2028, prioritizing domestic stability over integration timelines amid economic growth averaging 7% annually pre-2025 slowdowns tied to regional conflicts.^[24] Turnout in 2024 fell to about 54%, lower than the 67% in 2020, underscoring polarization between pro-Russian and pro-Western factions influencing fiscal policies on remittances and trade balances.^[25]

Sports and Cultural Events

Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games

The 2028 Summer Olympic Games, the XXXIV Olympiad, are scheduled to take place from July 14 to July 30 in Los Angeles, California, marking the city's third time hosting the event after 1932 and 1984.^[26][4] The Paralympic Games will follow from August 15 to 27, utilizing many of the same venues to optimize logistics and reduce transitional costs.^[27] This hosting leverages Los Angeles' extensive existing infrastructure, including the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum for athletics and ceremonies, SoFi Stadium for opening events, and sites across the greater metropolitan area such as Long Beach for sailing and Inglewood for basketball, minimizing the need for major new constructions that have historically driven cost escalations.^[28] The sports program includes 329 events across 42 disciplines, with flag football and squash debuting as Olympic sports to broaden appeal and incorporate American and global interests, while baseball/softball, cricket, and lacrosse return after absences, reflecting strategic additions approved by the International Olympic Committee to enhance viewership and participation from emerging markets.^[29][30] These inclusions prioritize sports with established domestic infrastructure, such as flag football at BMO Stadium, potentially generating higher revenue through U.S. fan engagement without proportional increases in operational expenses.^[31] LA28 organizers project a total budget of approximately $7 billion, funded entirely through private sources including corporate sponsorships, ticket sales, and licensing, explicitly avoiding reliance on taxpayer funds to prevent the public debt burdens seen in prior Games.^[32][33] This model draws from the profitable 1984 Los Angeles Games, which generated a surplus via similar private financing, contrasting with empirical data showing universal cost overruns in modern Olympics—100% of studied Games since 1960 exceeded budgets, with 78% surpassing 50% overruns in real terms, often due to venue overbuilds and security escalations.^[34][35] By emphasizing 80% existing or temporary venues, LA28's approach causally links to lower overrun risks, as historical analyses indicate new permanent facilities correlate with the highest variances, such as Montreal 1976's 720% overrun leading to decades of municipal debt.^[36] Preparations include ticket sales commencing in January 2026 for Olympic events and 2027 for Paralympics, with a registration draw to allocate high-demand seats, aiming to capture early revenue streams projected at hundreds of millions based on 1984 precedents adjusted for inflation.^[37] In August 2025, a White House Task Force was established to coordinate federal support for security, border management, and transportation, ensuring efficient handling of an expected 15 million visitors without straining public resources.^[5] These milestones underscore a data-driven efficiency focus, positioning the Games for net economic benefits through sponsorship influxes—estimated at over $1 billion from domestic partners—while mitigating the causal pitfalls of past hostings where overruns averaged 156% and yielded negligible long-term GDP gains relative to costs.^[38][39]

Other Major Sporting Competitions

The UEFA European Championship 2028 will feature 24 national teams competing in a 51-match tournament from June to July across venues in England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland.^[40] Co-host nations must qualify through standard UEFA pathways, with two reserved spots for the highest-ranked non-qualified hosts.^[41] Prior editions have driven substantial commercialization, with UEFA anticipating television rights revenue exceeding €1.135 billion, surpassing Euro 2020 levels, alongside projected economic impacts of £2.6 billion across host economies from tourism, infrastructure, and broadcasting deals.^{[42] [43]} Global viewership trends underscore football's soft power, as Euro 2020 achieved a cumulative live audience of 5.23 billion, with the final drawing 328 million viewers, reflecting sustained growth in fan engagement beyond Europe.^[44] The ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2028, co-hosted by Australia and New Zealand, will adopt the fast-paced Twenty20 format emphasizing high-scoring matches to attract broad participation from ICC member nations.^[45] The event builds on T20's commercialization model, where global broadcasting and sponsorships have fueled revenue growth, with the 2024 edition generating 16.9 billion digital video views—a 158% increase from 2022—driven by accessibility in emerging markets like the United States and UAE.^[46] This format's appeal lies in its role as a soft power vehicle for cricket, evidenced by expanding viewership in non-traditional regions, contrasting with slower-growth subsidized formats, and supporting ICC's push for participation from over 100 member countries.^[47] FIFA's inaugural Women's Club World Cup in January-February 2028 will involve 19 elite clubs from six confederations, selected via continental champions and rankings, marking a quadrennial expansion of women's football commercialization.^[48] The tournament prioritizes revenue through global broadcasting, with FIFA projecting enhanced fan engagement metrics akin to recent women's events that have seen attendance and viewership surges, thereby amplifying the sport's economic value in growing markets.^[49]

Science and Technological Advancements

Artificial Intelligence and Computing

By 2028, semiconductor advancements are projected to yield consumer-grade GPUs and CPUs exceeding 100 billion transistors, driven by processes like TSMC's A14 node at 1.4nm with second-generation nanosheet transistors, enabling denser compute for on-device AI inference.^[50][51] Industry roadmaps from NVIDIA indicate the Feynman architecture, slated for 2028 using gate-all-around transistors, will support performance boosts of around 20% over prior nodes, facilitating advanced local AI models without reliance on cloud dependency.^[52] Intel forecasts integrated processors delivering over 1,000 TOPS for AI tasks by that year, reflecting sustained R&D investments scaling transistor density per Moore's Law extensions.^[53] These hardware milestones stem from empirical scaling trends where compute availability correlates directly with model capabilities, as larger transistor counts reduce inference latency and energy costs for practical deployments. AI model training compute is expected to reach 10^28 to 10^29 FLOP thresholds by 2028, aligning with scaling laws that predict performance gains proportional to increased compute, data, and algorithmic efficiency.^[54] Forecasts anticipate 100-300 frontier models surpassing 10^25 FLOP, fueled by private investments exceeding $1 trillion in AI infrastructure, enabling productivity multipliers in targeted domains.^[55] In smartphones, generative AI integration is projected to comprise 54% of shipments, totaling over 900 million units, with on-device processing handling tasks like real-time image generation and personalization, grounded in benchmarks showing 78% CAGR from current deployments.^[56] Workflow automation tools demonstrate verifiable ROI, with organizations reporting 25-30% productivity uplifts and 2-3 hours weekly time savings per user from AI-assisted coding, scheduling, and documentation, based on 2025 enterprise trials extrapolating to broader adoption.^[57][58] In drug discovery, AI has reduced candidate identification timelines by up to 70% in case studies like those from Insilico Medicine, yielding ROI through accelerated clinical pipelines and cost savings estimated at millions per program, countering overhyping by tying gains to empirical hit rates rather than unverified promises.^[59] These outcomes underscore causal drivers: hardware-enabled scaling laws amplify returns when applied to data-rich, iterative processes. Private sector competition, exemplified by rivalries among NVIDIA, AMD, and TSMC, has propelled these advancements without heavy government mandates, as R&D investments outpace regulatory frameworks that risk stifling entry via compliance burdens.^[60] Empirical evidence from lighter-touch jurisdictions shows faster iteration cycles compared to overregulated environments, where innovation correlates more with market incentives than imposed safety standards lacking proven causal links to reduced risks.^[61][62]

Space Exploration and Other Scientific Milestones

The NASA Artemis program advanced toward crewed lunar missions, with Artemis II targeted for no later than April 2026 to test systems for human lunar exploration.^[63] However, delays in SpaceX's Starship Human Landing System prompted NASA to reopen competitions for Artemis III landers in October 2025, shifting the first crewed lunar landing timeline from 2027 to a projected 2028 window to ensure achievability.^{[64] [65]} This adjustment reflected ongoing integration challenges with the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft, alongside Starship's iterative testing, prioritizing reliability over accelerated schedules.^[66] SpaceX planned initial Starship cargo deliveries to the lunar surface starting in 2028, enabling research and development missions at an estimated $100 million per metric ton, leveraging the vehicle's full reusability for cost efficiency.^[67] These uncrewed flights aligned with NASA's Artemis requirements for sustained lunar presence, though broader Mars ambitions—such as uncrewed precursors in 2026 and potential crewed follow-ons by 2028—faced scrutiny due to technical hurdles like in-orbit refueling.^[68] Reusable launch technologies, exemplified by SpaceX's Falcon 9, reduced per-kilogram-to-LEO costs to approximately $2,720 by 2025, a fraction of historical expendable systems, through rapid turnaround and booster recovery—contrasting NASA's higher per-launch expenditures despite reusability availability.^{[69] [70]} This private-sector innovation highlighted inefficiencies in government-funded programs, where bureaucratic procurement inflated costs absent competitive pressures.^[71] In quantum computing, commercialization gained traction with projections for clustered systems to become viable by 2028, driven by advancements in ion-trap and scalable architectures from firms like IonQ.^[72] The enterprise quantum market was forecasted to reach $6.4 billion by 2028, fueled by early applications in optimization and simulation, though fault-tolerant, utility-scale machines remained beyond this horizon per exponential scaling estimates.^[73] Biotech saw projected maturation in precision gene editing, with the market expanding to $15 billion by 2028 via tools like prime editing, enabling targeted therapies but contingent on regulatory approvals and clinical trial outcomes.^[74] These milestones underscored a shift toward practical deployment, tempered by empirical validation over hype.^[75]

Economic and Geopolitical Forecasts

Global Economic Trends

Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to average approximately 3 percent in 2028, marking the lowest medium-term rate in an International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast since 1990 and reflecting subdued momentum amid structural headwinds.^[76] This outlook aligns with IMF assessments of persistent challenges, including fragmented trade patterns and fiscal strains, though recent updates indicate near-term stabilization around 3.2 percent for 2025-2026 before tapering.^[77] Advanced economies are expected to expand at roughly 1.6 percent annually, driven by productivity gains in select sectors, while emerging markets contribute higher rates near 4.2 percent but face vulnerabilities from commodity dependence.^[78] U.S.-China economic decoupling has accelerated supply chain fragmentation, exerting downward pressure on global efficiency and trade volumes, with empirical models estimating a potential 0.6 percentage point welfare gain for the U.S. offset by broader losses in interconnected markets.^[79] This shift, evidenced by rising tariffs and export controls, has prompted manufacturing reshoring, boosting U.S. industrial demand to an anticipated 25 percent of total absorption by 2028 from under 19 percent in prior years.^[80] However, reshoring's job creation potential is constrained by labor shortages, with up to 2.4 million skilled manufacturing positions projected unfilled by 2028 due to retirements and skill mismatches, even as deregulation in high-tech sectors fosters incremental employment.^[81] Energy markets are forecasted to stabilize post-2020s volatility through elevated capital expenditures, rising 49 percent cumulatively from 2021-2025 relative to the prior quinquennium, supporting supply adjustments amid demand plateaus expected around 2030-2035.^[82][83] Inflationary legacies from post-COVID fiscal stimulus, which contributed to inelastic supply responses and price surges peaking at 7.3 percent in personal consumption expenditures by mid-2022, persist as a risk, with deficits exceeding pre-pandemic norms in over 60 percent of economies.^[84][85] Global public debt is on track to surpass 100 percent of GDP by 2029—the highest since 1948—amplifying sustainability concerns via deteriorating fiscal ratios and interest burdens.^[86] Historical precedents, such as the 1980s U.S. supply-side measures involving tax reductions from 70 percent top marginal rates and regulatory easing, demonstrate capacity for countering stagnation, yielding annualized real GDP growth above 3.5 percent and unemployment declines from 7.1 percent amid prior inflation exceeding 13 percent.^[87] Market signals favor such reforms over demand-side interventions to enhance productivity and mitigate debt risks, as evidenced by post-reform expansions outpacing intervention-heavy periods with comparable fiscal starting points.^[88] Sectoral booms in technology and reshored manufacturing, bolstered by these dynamics, are poised to drive disproportionate gains, though realizing full potential hinges on addressing structural rigidities like labor immobilities.^[89]

International Relations and Potential Conflicts

Tensions in the U.S.-China relationship persisted into the late 2020s, centered on the Taiwan Strait, where China's People's Liberation Army conducted increasingly frequent military exercises simulating blockades and invasions, with over 111 aircraft and 46 vessels deployed in a single May 2024 operation.^[90] The U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 report assessed China's military modernization as enabling potential coercion or unification operations against Taiwan by 2027, though no escalatory evidence indicated an imminent 2028 invasion, emphasizing instead gray-zone tactics like airspace incursions to erode deterrence without crossing red lines.^[91] China's nuclear arsenal exceeded 600 warheads by early 2024, projected to reach 1,500 by 2035, bolstering its strategic posture amid U.S. alliances like AUKUS and QUAD, which historical data links to reduced aggression through credible extended deterrence rather than unilateral appeasement.^[92] Global military expenditures underscored risk asymmetries, with the U.S. allocating $968 billion in 2024—over four times China's $235 billion and six times Russia's $145.9 billion—funding advanced capabilities that causal analyses tie to alliance cohesion and invasion deterrence, as seen in post-2014 NATO reinforcements curbing Russian advances in Eastern Europe.^[93] In Europe, NATO's forward deployments and rapid response forces deterred Russian aerial incursions into allied airspace in 2025, though hybrid threats like sabotage persisted, prompting commitments at the 2025 Hague Summit for 5% GDP defense spending by 2035 to counter Moscow's opportunistic probing.^[94][95] EU efforts to sever energy ties with Russia accelerated post-2022 Ukraine invasion, reducing pipeline gas reliance from 40% in 2021 to 11% by 2024 and enacting a full import ban effective January 1, 2028, mitigating leverage that prior dependencies had provided for coercion, as evidenced by stabilized European markets after diversification to U.S. LNG.^[96][97] In the Middle East, the Abraham Accords, normalized in 2020 between Israel and states including the UAE and Bahrain, demonstrated resilience by 2025 despite Gaza-related instability, fostering trade volumes exceeding $3 billion annually in tech and energy sectors and empirical growth in joint ventures that reduced conflict incentives through economic interdependence.^[98][99] Expansion pursuits toward Saudi Arabia and others in 2025 highlighted deterrence via aligned security pacts over concessions, correlating with lowered proxy escalations in historical precedents like post-Camp David frameworks.^[100] Diplomatic schedules, including Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forums—hosted by Vietnam in 2027—continued evaluating trade pacts' track record, where data from prior agreements showed 15-20% GDP boosts in signatory economies via tariff reductions, underscoring causal links to stability absent protectionist reversals.^[101]