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David Autor
David Autor
David Autor
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David H. Autor (born 1967[3]) is an American economist, public policy scholar, and professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where he also acts as co-director of the School Effectiveness and Inequality Initiative.[4] Although Autor has contributed to a variety of fields in economics his research generally focuses on topics from labor economics.

Key Information

Early life and education

[edit]

David Autor was raised in Newton, Massachusetts, by parents who were psychologists.[5] He enrolled in Columbia University after high school, but dropped out and worked as an administrative assistant and software developer in a Boston hospital.[6] He later returned to college, ultimately earning a B.A. in psychology from Tufts University in 1989. After graduating from Tufts, he pursued volunteer work at Glide Memorial Church in San Francisco that was teaching computer skills to disadvantaged students.[5][6] In the Bay Area, Autor discovered his passion for economics and public policy and pursued an M.A. and Ph.D. in public policy from the John F. Kennedy School of Government (Harvard University), which he earned in 1994 and 1999 respectively.[4]

Academic career

[edit]

After completing his Ph.D., David Autor was hired as assistant professor at MIT's economics department, where he became the Pentti J.K. Kouri Career Development Assistant Professor of Economics in 2002 before being promoted to associate professor in 2003 and receiving tenure in 2005. He was made full professor at MIT in 2008 where he taught undergraduate courses titled "Microeconomic Theory and Public Policy" and "Putting Social Science to the Test: Experiments in Economics". In parallel to his position at MIT, Autor is or has been affiliated with several research institutions, including the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Poverty Action Lab, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) and IZA World of Labor, is or has been the editor of economic academic journals such as the Journal of Economic Perspectives (2009–14), Journal of Labor Economics (2007–08), Journal of Economic Literature (2004–06) and the Review of Economics and Statistics (2002–2008). Finally, he is a co-director of the MIT School Effectiveness and Inequality Initiative (SEII), a research program focusing on the economics of education and the relationship between human capital and the American income distribution. He is a research associate at the NBER where he directs the Labor Studies Program,[7] as well as an associate director of the NBER Disability Research Center.[4]

Research

[edit]

David Autor's research primarily focuses on five areas: (1) Inequality, technological change, and globalization; (2) disability and labor force participation; (3) labor market intermediation;[8] (4) neighborhoods, housing market spillovers, and price controls; and (5) labor market impacts of wrongful discharge protections.[9] The economics bibliographic database IDEAS/RePEc ranks him among the top 5% of economists under a number of criteria, including average rank score, number of works, and number of citations.[10]

One of his most cited articles, co-authored with Alan B. Krueger and Lawrence F. Katz, studies the effect of skill-biased technological change in the form of computerization on the diverging U.S. education wage differentials and finds evidence suggesting that computerization has increased skill-based wage premia in the U.S. by requiring rapid skill upgrading, which in turn has increased the labor demand for college graduates relative to workers without tertiary education as well as the wage premium associated with a college degree.[11]

In 2009 Autor contributed to the book Studies of Labor Market Intermediation as an editor during his time at the University of Chicago. He would later go on to write "The Work of the Future: Building Better Jobs in Age of Smart Machines" with his colleagues at MIT. In an influential 2013 study co-authored with David Dorn and Gordon H. Hanson, Autor showed that U.S. exposure to Chinese trade competition "caused higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and reduced wages in local labor markets that house import-competing manufacturing industries".[12] The study nonetheless finds that trade is a net gain for the population as a whole,[12] and Autor has been an advocate for the Trans-Pacific Partnership as a means to protect U.S. workers.[13] In 2020, Dr. Autor received the 25th Anniversary Special Recognition Heinz Award[14] for his work and also received attention for his work with Elisabeth Reynolds on the adverse impacts of coronavirus disease 2019 on the office economy.[15][16]

Selected Publications

[edit]
  • Autor, D., Katz, L.F., Krueger, A.B. (1998). Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(4), pp. 1169-1213.
  • Autor, David H; Dorn, David; Hanson, Gordon H (2013-10-01). "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States" (PDF). American Economic Review. 103 (6): 2121–2168. doi:10.1257/aer.103.6.2121. hdl:1721.1/95952. ISSN 0002-8282. S2CID 2498232.

References

[edit]

Sources

[edit]
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David Autor

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David H. Autor is an American and the Daniel () and Rubinfeld Professor of at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He specializes in labor economics, with research centered on the causal impacts of technological automation, , and institutional factors on job structures, skill requirements, wage distributions, and inequality. Autor earned a B.A. in from and a Ph.D. in public policy from Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government in 1999. As co-director of the (NBER) Labor Studies Program, Autor has produced foundational empirical work documenting the polarization of the U.S. labor market, where computerization and routine-task substitution have eroded middle-skill employment while expanding high- and low-wage occupations. His collaborative studies on the ""—the surge in Chinese imports following its 2001 World Trade Organization accession—reveal substantial, persistent declines in manufacturing jobs and adverse effects on local economies, challenging assumptions of rapid worker reallocation. These analyses highlight supply-side drivers of labor market shifts often underemphasized in policy debates. Autor's contributions have earned recognition including the in 2003, the Sherwin Rosen Prize for labor economics, the 2019 Andrew Carnegie Fellowship, and the 2020 Heinz Award for contributions to economic understanding. A fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Econometric Society, his research informs discussions on worker adaptation to technological and trade disruptions, advocating evidence-based approaches over narrative-driven interpretations.

Biography

Early Life and Education

David Autor was born in 1964 and grew up in , , where his parents worked as clinical . During high school, he developed an interest in , teaching himself programming on a computer. Autor initially enrolled at but left without completing a degree. He later attended , earning a B.A. in in 1989, with aspirations to pursue a career as a clinical psychologist, influenced by his family's professional background. Following undergraduate studies, Autor worked for three years as a software developer and directed computer skills education programs for economically disadvantaged children and adults in and . He then entered Harvard University's School of Government, where he obtained a Ph.D. in in 1999.

Academic Positions and Affiliations

David Autor joined the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Department of Economics as an in 1999. He advanced to Pentti J.K. Kouri Career Development in 2002 and to the associate level in that role in 2003. Autor received tenure as in 2005 and was promoted to full Professor in 2008. Autor held the Ford Professor of Economics chair at MIT from 2016 to 2024. In 2024, he assumed the Daniel (1972) and Gail Rubinfeld Professorship in Economics, a position he continues to hold. He also serves as a Margaret MacVicar Faculty Fellow at MIT. Throughout his career, Autor has undertaken several visiting appointments, including as Visiting Assistant Professor at the in , , in 2002; Ford Foundation Visiting Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Business in 2006; Visiting Associate Professor at the Department of Economics in 2007; Visiting Professor of Economics at from 2013 to 2014; and Visiting Professor of at the from 2021 to 2022. Autor's key affiliations include serving as Co-Director of the (NBER) Labor Studies Program since 2017 and as Faculty Research Associate at NBER. Since 2025, he has been Faculty Co-Director of MIT's James M. and Cathleen D. Stone Center on Inequality and Shaping the Future of Work, and he holds a Faculty Research Associate position at the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab. He previously co-directed MIT's School Effectiveness and Inequality Initiative.

Research Focus

Labor Market Polarization and Skill-Biased Change

David Autor advanced the understanding of skill-biased (SBTC) as a driver of rising U.S. inequality, positing that innovations like computerization disproportionately boosted productivity and demand for college-educated workers relative to their supply growth during the and . In econometric decompositions, SBTC explained roughly 60% of the expansion in education-based earnings premiums and associated inequality from 1980 to 2017. However, this framework, which treats technology as uniformly augmenting skilled labor while assuming static task structures, inadequately accounted for stagnant or declining among non-college males despite falling relative skill supplies, prompting Autor to refine models toward task-specific impacts. Autor, Katz, and Kearney empirically documented labor market polarization, revealing that U.S. employment growth from the onward concentrated in high-wage professional occupations and low-wage service roles, with relative declines in middle-wage routine jobs such as clerical and production work. Wage structure analysis showed accelerating upper-tail (90/50) inequality through the followed by rising lower-tail (50/10) gaps post-1990, diverging from SBTC predictions of monotonic upper-end expansion. This U-shaped pattern in job and earnings growth persisted into the 2000s, with middle-skill occupations shrinking as a share of total employment. In response, Autor, Levy, and Murnane introduced a task-based perspective, arguing that recent —exemplified by —substitutes for routine cognitive and manual tasks (e.g., repetitive calculations or assembly) while complementing non-routine abstract (e.g., problem-solving) and manual (e.g., personal care) activities. Using Dictionary of Occupational Titles measures, they found routine task indices declining sharply from 1960 to 1998, alongside rises in non-routine demands, implying displacement of middle-skill workers rather than pure skill complementarity. This routine-biased (RBTC) mechanism better rationalizes polarization, as hollows out routine middle tiers, reallocating labor to automation-resistant ends of the skill distribution. Autor and Dorn provided causal evidence for RBTC using 1980–2005 and ACS data across 722 U.S. commuting zones, showing that areas with high initial routine task exposure (per 1970s occupational measures) adopted more computers, lost routine employment faster, and saw non-college low-skill service jobs expand from 12.9% to 19.8% of work hours, with service wages rising 11 log points overall but polarizing further in affected zones. Their spatial equilibrium model confirmed RBTC's role in driving these shifts, estimating it accounts for 50–70% of U.S. earnings inequality growth since 1980 and nearly all non-high-school male wage declines, outperforming alternatives like in .

Globalization and the China Trade Shock

David Autor's research on the effects of globalization, particularly the surge in Chinese imports known as the "China Shock," has demonstrated significant adverse impacts on U.S. labor markets, challenging assumptions of rapid adjustment to trade liberalization. Collaborating with David Dorn and Gordon Hanson, Autor quantified how increased import competition from China, accelerating after its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), led to persistent declines in manufacturing employment without commensurate offsets in other sectors. Their seminal 2013 paper, "The China Syndrome," analyzed data from 1990 to 2007, exploiting variation in local exposure to Chinese imports across U.S. commuting zones, where exposure was measured as the rise in import penetration per worker, instrumented by initial local industry composition and national-level import growth from China to other high-income countries. This shift-share instrumental variable approach addressed endogeneity concerns, attributing causality to exogenous supply shocks from China's export boom in labor-intensive manufactured goods like apparel, furniture, and electronics. Key empirical findings revealed that a one-percentage-point increase in Chinese import exposure reduced employment by approximately 0.55 percentage points relative to initial levels, translating to about 1 million U.S. jobs lost over the period, with no of reallocation to expanding trade-insensitive industries such as or services. Affected local labor markets experienced elevated rates averaging 1.5 percentage points higher, depressed labor force participation, and wage reductions of 0.35 log points for workers without college degrees, effects concentrated among non-college-educated prime-age males. These dislocations were geographically persistent, with exposed regions showing slower recovery and no migration-driven equalization of outcomes across areas, as workers remained tied to declining locales due to , , or skill mismatches. In subsequent work, Autor and coauthors extended the analysis to show that labor market adjustment to the was remarkably slow, with depressed wages and participation rates enduring for over a decade and elevated for 10–15 years post-shock. A update confirmed the persistence of these effects into the , with exposed commuting zones exhibiting 2–3% lower employment-to-population ratios and 5–6% lower mean household incomes relative to unexposed areas, even as national deficits stabilized after 2010. The research highlighted causal mechanisms including reduced firm entry, slower , and increased non-employment (e.g., claims and prime-age male withdrawal from the ) rather than smooth sectoral shifts predicted by standard models. These findings underscore globalization's uneven costs, borne disproportionately by trade-exposed communities, informing debates on policy's net welfare effects beyond aggregate gains.

Automation, AI, and Future of Work

Autor developed a task-based framework to analyze 's effects on labor markets, positing that technologies primarily substitute for routine, codifiable tasks while complementing non-routine ones requiring flexibility, , or social interaction. This model explains the observed polarization of U.S. since the , with employment growth concentrated in high-skill abstract (non-routine cognitive) occupations and low-skill manual (non-routine service) roles, alongside declines in middle-skill routine cognitive and manual jobs such as clerical and production work. from U.S. Census and data supports this, showing routine task shares falling from about 40% of in to under 30% by , correlating with stagnation in affected occupations. In assessing automation's broader historical trajectory, Autor argues it has not displaced most jobs because substitutions occur at the task level, generating new non-routine tasks that offset losses, though productivity gains often accrue disproportionately to capital owners rather than workers. For instance, 20th-century automated routine manual tasks in and , reducing those sectors' shares from over 50% in 1900 to under 10% by 2000, yet overall rose due to service-sector expansion. He identifies bounds on future automation: physical tasks involving dexterity or , and cognitive ones demanding or , remain resistant, limiting displacement to perhaps 10-20% of current work hours over decades. Turning to artificial intelligence, Autor contends AI differs from prior automation by enabling augmentation of non-routine judgment and adaptability, potentially restoring middle-skill, middle-class jobs eroded by routinization. In his February 2024 NBER , he proposes AI as "copilots" for workers in roles like maintenance technicians or healthcare aides, allowing them to handle complex diagnostics or custom solutions that previously required high expertise, thus elevating without full substitution. This optimistic contrasts with fears of mass displacement, emphasizing AI's capacity to democratize expertise—e.g., enabling novices to perform expert-level tasks under —provided deployment prioritizes human-AI over replacement. Recent collaborative work with reveals automation's heterogeneous wage impacts: in occupations gaining "inexpert" tasks (simplified versions of complex work), wages compress as technology enables lower-skilled entrants, while expert tasks in novice-heavy fields yield boosts without commensurate pay rises, underscoring the need to track task quality over mere exposure. Autor warns that AI's effects will manifest slowly, over years, and advocates policies fostering skill development and AI integration to harness its potential for rather than exacerbating inequality.

Other Contributions to Labor Economics

Autor's research has examined the labor supply effects of programs. In a 2017 study of Norwegian , he and coauthors found that awards provide strong consumption insurance to recipients but also induce significant reductions in household labor supply, including through spousal responses, with benefits crowding out earnings by approximately 25 cents per dollar received. A separate analysis of U.S. veterans' exposure to expanded compensation under the system estimated that benefit receipt reduced labor force participation by 18 percentage points among eligible enrollees, driven primarily by substitution away from work rather than effects alone. These findings underscore how generous provisions can distort incentives, contributing to long-term exits from for marginally impaired individuals. He has also reassessed the role of the in shaping U.S. earnings inequality. In a 2016 paper spanning data from 1979 to 2012, Autor, along with Alan Manning and Christopher L. Smith, determined that federal and state s offset roughly 25-50% of the potential increase in the lower-tail 50/10 during periods of real minimum wage erosion, though this effect was smaller than in earlier decades due to declining bite on the wage distribution amid rising low-end wages from other factors. The study employed instrumental variable methods to address endogeneity, revealing that minimum wage hikes compressed the bottom but had negligible impacts on employment levels in the affected segments. Additional work explores labor market institutions' influence on firm organization and contracting. Autor's 2003 analysis linked the adoption of -at-will doctrines across U.S. states to a surge in , as stricter unjust dismissal protections raised the costs of direct hiring and , prompting firms to shift non-core tasks to independent contractors and staffing agencies; states relaxing these doctrines saw growth slow by up to 30% relative to at-will states between 1979 and 1996. This research highlights how legal frictions in dismissal rights can reshape labor market boundaries and contribute to the rise of arrangements.

Policy Engagement and Public Impact

Testimonies, Op-Eds, and Policy Recommendations

David Autor has provided expert testimony to parliamentary committees on the implications of for labor markets. On November 20, 2023, he testified before the Standing Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities, focusing on artificial intelligence's potential effects on and skills requirements. Autor has contributed opinion pieces to major outlets, emphasizing evidence-based analysis of labor market dynamics. In a September 4, 2021, New York Times , he argued that post-pandemic labor shortages in the United States represented an opportunity rather than a , attributing them less to expanded —which studies showed had minimal disincentive effects—and more to workers' aversion to low-quality jobs, as evidenced by similar shortages in without comparable benefit expansions. He highlighted data showing elevated job openings relative to , suggesting a need to address job quality over forcing higher labor force participation. In a July 14, 2025, New York Times guest essay co-authored with Gordon Hanson, Autor revisited the "China shock" of 1999–2007, which eliminated approximately 25% of U.S. manufacturing employment, causing persistent regional declines in earnings and employment as documented in his prior research. He warned of a potential "China shock 2.0" in advanced technologies like AI and semiconductors, where China leads in 57 of 64 frontier areas per Australian Strategic Policy Institute data from 2019–2023, urging policies beyond unilateral tariffs. Autor's policy recommendations center on mitigating displacement from trade and automation while fostering inclusive growth. For trade shocks, he advocates coordinated multilateral efforts with allies like the EU and Japan, targeted investments in strategic sectors via government-backed funds, and robust support for affected workers including expanded unemployment insurance, wage insurance, and retraining programs. In the context of automation and AI, he proposes "pro-worker" measures such as equalizing tax treatment between labor and capital to reduce incentives for machine substitution, modernizing wage insurance to cover earnings losses from technological displacement, introducing portable benefits decoupled from employers, developing sector-specific upskilling initiatives, and enhancing worker input in AI tool deployment to preserve middle-skill jobs. These draw from his co-authored MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future report, which calls for institutional reforms to rebuild middle-class employment eroded by prior technological and global shifts, emphasizing human-complementary innovations over pure labor displacement. Autor stresses repairing labor market institutions—like unions and vocational training—to deliver opportunity without relying on job elimination as a solution to inequality.

Reception, Debates, and Criticisms

Autor's research on the ""—the surge in U.S. from following its 2001 WTO accession—has received widespread acclaim for its empirical rigor and causal identification strategy, which used instrumental variables based on other high-income countries' exposure to isolate effects from domestic demand shifts. The seminal 2013 paper by Autor, Dorn, and Hanson documented that regions more exposed to Chinese competition experienced declines of 1.0 per $1,000 increase in exposure per worker from 1990 to 2007, with limited reallocation to other sectors. Subsequent work extended these findings, showing persistent effects through 2019, including 2.0 million fewer U.S. jobs and sustained wage reductions of 0.88% per $1,000 exposure, influencing discussions on policy and worker adjustment. Debates surrounding the center on its relative magnitude compared to and the adequacy of policy responses. Autor has argued that accounted for about 40% of U.S. job losses from 2000 to 2011, exceeding 's contribution during that period, challenging narratives emphasizing technological displacement alone. Critics, including free- proponents, contend that while import competition caused localized disruptions, aggregate U.S. rebounded via service sector growth and that Autor's estimates may overstate persistence by underweighting worker mobility or fiscal multipliers from trade deficits. Autor and co-authors rebutted claims of reverse or omitted variables, such as routine-task , by demonstrating low between exposure and proxies across commuting zones. On labor market polarization, Autor's task-based framework—positing that computerization automates routine middle-skill tasks, boosting demand for non-routine cognitive and manual jobs—has shaped understanding of and shifts since the 1980s, with middle-skill occupations shrinking from 40% to 30% of by 2005. However, reappraisals question the polarization narrative's universality, finding that post-2000 growth favored high- jobs without symmetric low- expansion when adjusting for occupational reclassification and measurement errors in task inputs. Autor maintains that polarization reflects supply-side skill demands rather than pure demand shifts, but debates persist on whether it fully explains stagnant or if institutional factors like union decline play larger roles. Criticisms of Autor's broader oeuvre include skepticism toward his downplaying of automation's displacement risks, with some arguing his emphasis on gradual task augmentation overlooks firm-level evidence of robot adoption correlating with employment reductions in exposed sectors. In policy contexts, detractors from libertarian perspectives accuse interpretations of his trade work of implicitly endorsing , despite Autor's explicit focus on adjustment assistance over tariffs. Additionally, Autor's association with a 2024 MIT paper on AI's labor effects—later disavowed by the institution due to data issues—drew scrutiny, though he was not the lead author. Despite these, his contributions are credited with empirically grounding debates on globalization's uneven costs, prompting calls for targeted retraining over broad trade barriers.

Recognition and Legacy

Awards and Honors

David Autor received the in 2003 for his research on labor market intermediation. That same year, he was awarded an Research Fellowship, supporting his early-career work in from 2003 to 2005. In 2008, Autor was granted the Sherwin Rosen Prize by the of Labor Economists for outstanding contributions to the field of labor . He was elected a of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2012, recognizing his influence in social and behavioral sciences. In 2014, he became a of the Econometric Society, honoring advancements in econometric methods and economic theory. Autor held the Fellowship from 2019 to 2021, funding investigations into and labor market dynamics. In 2020, he received the Heinz Awards' 25th Anniversary Special Recognition Award for transforming understandings of technology's labor impacts and trade shocks. The NOMIS Foundation awarded him the Distinguished Scientist and Scholar distinction in 2023 for interdisciplinary research on work and automation. In 2025, Autor was named a Clarivate Citation Laureate for highly cited research shaping economic policy debates on trade and automation. That year, his co-authored book The Work of the Future: Building Better Jobs in an Age of Intelligent Machines (2023) won the inaugural MIT Press Faculty Book Award. He is also a Fellow of the Society of Labor Economists and holds the Margaret MacVicar Faculty Fellowship at MIT for excellence in undergraduate teaching.

Influence on Economic Thought

David Autor's task-based framework for analyzing has fundamentally altered economic models of labor market dynamics, moving beyond skill-biased technological change (SBTC) paradigms that emphasized a uniform shift toward high-skilled workers. By distinguishing between routine and non-routine tasks, Autor demonstrated that primarily displaces middle-skill, routine occupations—such as clerical and production roles—leading to job polarization where employment growth concentrates in high-wage abstract tasks and low-wage manual service roles. This routinization hypothesis, formalized in papers like "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs?" (), better explains empirical patterns of wage stagnation for non-college workers and the hollowing out of middle-class jobs since the 1980s, supplanting SBTC's focus on premiums alone. Subsequent literature has widely adopted this approach, integrating it into analyses of inequality and , as Autor's 2022 review traces four decades of evolving thought from races to AI uncertainties. In trade economics, Autor's "" research with David Dorn and Gordon Hanson quantified how surges in Chinese imports from 1990 to 2007 caused 2–2.4 million U.S. job losses, concentrated in local labor markets with limited reallocation due to frictions like commuting zones and skill mismatches. This challenged classical trade models assuming rapid, economy-wide adjustment via , revealing persistent wage declines, increased disability claims, and social disruptions like reduced marriage rates in affected areas. The work prompted a reevaluation of globalization's distributional costs, influencing debates on trade adjustment assistance and , with Autor noting it forced economists to confront "how labor markets truly respond" beyond aggregate gains. Autor's scholarship extends to broader critiques of labor market optimism, emphasizing place-based effects and policy frictions in areas like and minimum wages, where empirical evidence shows limited elasticities contrary to theoretical predictions. His over 104,000 Google Scholar citations reflect this impact, with key papers reshaping discussions on automation's job-preserving yet polarizing effects and AI's potential to amplify human tasks rather than displace them wholesale. Recognized as "the academic voice of the American worker," Autor's emphasis on causal identification and granular data has elevated realism in economic thought, prioritizing worker-level outcomes over macroeconomic aggregates.

References

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