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Lacy Hunt
Lacy Hunt
Lacy Hunt
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Lacy Harris Hunt[1] is an economist and Executive Vice President of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO).[2] He is vice-chairman of HIMCO's strategic investment policy committee and also Chief Economist for the Wasatch Hoisington Treasury Bond Fund.[3] He has authored two books, A Time to Be Rich and Dynamics of Forecasting: Financial Cycles, Theory and Techniques, and has had articles published in Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times[4], The Journal of Finance, the Financial Analysts Journal, the Journal of Portfolio Management, among other publication outlets.[5] He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for “outstanding contributions in the field of business economics.” [6]

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Lacy Hunt

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Lacy H. Hunt is an American economist renowned for his expertise in , , and fixed-income markets, serving as Executive and at Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a -based firm managing approximately $3 billion in assets primarily in U.S. Treasury securities as of 2025. A native of with more than five decades of experience in economic analysis and forecasting, Hunt has built a distinguished career advising institutional investors on long-term trends such as debt dynamics, deflationary pressures, and impacts. His work emphasizes the role of recessions and low in shaping economic cycles, often advocating for extended bond bull markets amid persistent structural headwinds. Hunt earned his Bachelor of Arts from Sewanee: The University of the South in 1964, a from the at the in 1966, and a Ph.D. in economics from Temple University's Fox School of Business and Management in 1969. He later received an honorary Doctor of Civil Laws from Sewanee in 2013 and the Distinguished Alumnus Award from the same institution in 2016. Early in his career, Hunt served as a Senior Economist at the , contributing to research during a pivotal period of economic volatility in the . He progressed to leadership roles including Vice President for Monetary Economics at Chase Econometrics Associates, Executive Vice President and Chief Economist at Fidelity Bank, and Chief U.S. Economist for the Group. Since joining HIMCO in 1996, Hunt has co-authored the firm's influential quarterly economic outlooks, which analyze global macroeconomic forces and have guided investment strategies for institutional clients and the Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund. He is the author of two books—A Time to Be Rich (1987) and Dynamics of Forecasting: Financial Cycles, Theory and Techniques (1978)—and has published extensively in outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Barron's, and the Journal of Finance. Hunt's contributions earned him the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for outstanding work in business economics, and he has held advisory roles including on the Economic Advisory Board of the American Bankers Association and as Chairman of the Pennsylvania Bankers Association's Economic Advisory Board. In October 2025, Temple University's Economics Department honored him with a portrait unveiling, recognizing his enduring impact on the field.

Early life and education

Early life

Lacy Hunt was born on July 29, 1942, in El Paso, Texas. He is the son of Andrew William Hunt and Elizabeth (Mullen) Hunt.

Academic background

Lacy Hunt earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from Sewanee: The University of the South in 1964. He subsequently obtained a Master of Business Administration in finance from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1966. Hunt completed his PhD in at in 1969, becoming the first recipient of this degree from the institution. This foundational work in positioned him for subsequent roles in economic analysis.

Professional career

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Lacy Hunt served as Senior Economist at the from 1969 to 1973. In this role, he focused on , analysis, and research into the Texas regional economy, contributing to the bank's efforts to monitor and respond to national and local economic trends during a period of increasing and . His work involved evaluating key indicators such as interest rates, banking practices, and fiscal influences to support informed policy recommendations. During his tenure, Hunt served on the System Committees on and , where he participated in system-wide discussions on and financial markets. This committee role allowed him to collaborate with economists from other banks on broader monetary issues, enhancing his expertise in macroeconomic dynamics. Hunt's contributions included notable publications on banking and monetary topics. He co-authored "The Relative Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Variables in Determining Movements: A Note" with Peter S. Rose, published in the Journal of Finance in March 1971, which analyzed how monetary aggregates and affected movements using econometric models. These works provided insights into banking strategies during the early , a time when pressures and the began impacting the economy.

Roles at financial institutions

After leaving the , Lacy Hunt joined Chase Econometrics Associates in as for from 1973 to 1976. In this role, he specialized in and , including the development of the first large-scale of the financial sector and a financial sector model for countries. Hunt then advanced to Executive Vice President and Chief Economist at Fidelity Bank in , serving from 1976 to 1983. There, he oversaw the bank's economic research department and gained recognition for accurate predictions during the late 1970s period of , including forecasts of weakening such as a 2% decline in Christmas sales for 1979. From 1983 to 1995, Hunt served as Chief U.S. Economist for in , part of the Group, one of the world's largest banks at the time. In this position, he led global economic analysis, producing reports and forecasts on U.S. and international markets amid the debt cycles, emphasizing cross-border financial dynamics. Following his tenure at , Hunt transitioned to at Hoisington Investment Management Company in 1996.

Hoisington Investment Management

Lacy Hunt serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist at Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a role he has held for nearly three decades as of 2020. He joined the firm following senior positions at major financial institutions, bringing expertise in macroeconomic analysis and fixed-income management. As vice-chairman of HIMCO's strategic investment policy committee, Hunt contributes to the firm's overarching investment decisions and policy formulation. Hunt collaborates closely with HIMCO founder Van R. Hoisington on the firm's quarterly economic reviews and outlooks, offering detailed assessments of global and domestic economic conditions. These publications, co-authored by the pair, analyze factors such as dynamics, effects, and growth prospects, guiding the firm's investment approach. HIMCO specializes in long-term strategies centered exclusively on U.S. securities, positioning the firm to capitalize on periods of economic uncertainty through investments in long-duration bonds. In Hunt's tenure, he has been instrumental in shaping portfolio strategies during key economic downturns, including the 1990-1991 recession, the 2001 dot-com bust, and the . His advocacy for long-term Treasuries during these events aligned with significant yield declines—from around 9% in 1990 to historic lows by the 2010s—delivering strong returns for the firm's clients amid broader market volatility. This bond-focused strategy underscores Hunt's emphasis on deflationary pressures and the safe-haven appeal of Treasuries in recessive environments. As of 2025, Hunt remains actively involved in HIMCO's ongoing publications, continuing to warn of potential economic slowdowns driven by rising debt burdens and tightening monetary conditions. The firm's Third Quarter 2025 review, for instance, highlights weakening economic indicators and projects further benefits for long-term holdings. These outlooks reinforce HIMCO's stance, maintaining a bullish outlook on bonds despite prevailing market narratives.

Economic views and contributions

Debt and deflation theories

Lacy Hunt's central thesis asserts that excessive public and private accumulation inevitably leads to cycles, which suppress and engender pressures. In his analysis, high levels divert resources toward repayment and interest servicing rather than productive investments or consumption, resulting in diminished and a contractionary spiral. This process is exacerbated when becomes inefficient, yielding diminishing marginal returns on growth, as additional borrowing fails to stimulate output proportionally. Hunt emphasizes that surpassing critical thresholds—particularly above 90% of GDP—shifts economies from expansion to stagnation, with manifesting as reduced spending and asset liquidation. Hunt supports this thesis through historical analysis, drawing direct parallels to the of the 1930s, where post-1920s debt buildup led to forced , banking collapses, and severe as nominal incomes fell while real burdens rose. He similarly references Japan's "lost decade" starting in the , where public and private -to-GDP ratios climbed above 200%, triggering prolonged , asset price , and persistent low growth despite aggressive policy interventions. In both cases, Hunt highlights how elevated metrics—such as service consuming a growing share of —amplified downturns by constraining expansion and fostering . Applying this to the present, he observes that U.S. total nonfinancial reached approximately 215% of GDP as of Q3 2025, while public exceeded 125% of GDP, signaling heightened deflationary risks. Demographic trends play a pivotal role in Hunt's framework, as aging populations in advanced economies curtail productivity gains and elevate savings rates, intensifying deflationary forces. With shrinking working-age cohorts, labor force participation declines, slowing potential output and reducing demand for . This shift prompts higher precautionary savings among older demographics, creating excess that fails to circulate effectively, further dampening and compounding the drag from high loads. Hunt argues that these structural changes, evident in the U.S. and , limit the economy's ability to inflate away , making more inevitable and protracted. To model these interactions, Hunt utilizes a debt dynamics framework where real GDP growth is approximated as the combination of productivity growth and labor force expansion minus the debt service burden. Formally, this can be expressed as: Real GDP Growth≈ΔProductivity+ΔLabor Force−Debt Service Burden\text{Real GDP Growth} \approx \Delta \text{Productivity} + \Delta \text{Labor Force} - \text{Debt Service Burden} The debt service burden is calculated as interest payments relative to disposable income, and Hunt derives that growth becomes significantly inhibited when this ratio surpasses 10%, as it crowds out discretionary spending and investment. This threshold emerges from empirical observations where debt servicing diverts over a tenth of income, reducing velocity of money and amplifying contractionary effects in a brief derivation: starting from the quantity theory of money adjusted for debt flows, higher service costs elevate real interest rates implicitly, subtracting from net output contributions.

Critiques of monetary policy

Lacy Hunt has argued that the Federal Reserve's prolonged low interest rates and (QE) programs since the have exacerbated the economy's debt overhang by incentivizing malinvestment and postponing essential processes. These policies, he contends, direct capital toward unproductive uses, such as speculative asset bubbles, rather than genuine economic expansion, thereby intensifying structural imbalances without resolving underlying leverage issues. Hunt emphasizes that QE's injection of liquidity has primarily fueled corporate and financial sector debt accumulation, hindering the private sector's ability to reduce burdens that would otherwise support sustainable growth. In his historical critiques, Hunt points to post-2008 monetary actions and responses during the inflationary surge as failures to tackle core problems, resulting in financial repression where artificially suppressed rates transfer wealth from savers to debtors and governments. He describes this repression as a deliberate strategy to erode real values through and low yields, but one that stifles and by distorting market signals. During the , Hunt criticizes the Fed's aggressive rate hikes followed by hesitancy as ignoring persistent private drags, leading to uneven recovery and heightened vulnerability to shocks. A key indicator of monetary policy's ineffectiveness, according to Hunt, is the sustained decline in the , where rapid growth has not translated into proportional GDP expansion, underscoring how excess remains trapped in financial assets rather than circulating productively. This dynamic, he argues, reveals the limitations of interventions in highly indebted environments, as velocity's fall amplifies deflationary pressures despite nominal increases. As of Q3 2025, Hunt has warned of a recession probability exceeding 50%, attributing this risk to the persistent signaling tight financial conditions and escalating fiscal deficits that crowd out private investment. He asserts the Fed is on rate cuts, recommending at least 100 basis points of reductions to counteract strains from global tightening and domestic policy missteps, lest it prolong an unnecessary slowdown. These views tie into Hunt's broader theories by highlighting how fiscal expansion amid monetary restraint fails to alleviate needs.

Investment implications

Lacy Hunt's economic theories, rooted in the debilitating effects of excessive and the limitations of , have profound implications for strategies, particularly emphasizing as a superior asset class in environments of slowing growth and deflationary pressures. He advocates strongly for long-duration U.S. bonds as effective hedges against and recessions, arguing that these securities benefit from falling yields driven by economic contraction and reduced inflationary expectations. In high-debt regimes, Hunt posits that long-term Treasuries provide capital preservation and attractive total returns, as declining interest rates amplify price appreciation for longer maturities. The track record of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), where Hunt serves as executive and , underscores this approach. During the 2000-2009 "lost decade" for equities, marked by the dot-com bust and the global financial crisis, HIMCO's bond-focused portfolios delivered superior performance compared to stock markets, capitalizing on the secular decline in yields and providing positive returns amid widespread equity losses. Similarly, in the 2020 downturn, the Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund, managed in collaboration with HIMCO, returned approximately 19% for the year, outperforming all other U.S. funds and ranking No. 1 in its category, as long-duration Treasuries rallied on flight-to-safety demand and aggressive rate cuts. Hunt issues stark warnings on equities, viewing them as overvalued in debt-fueled growth environments where leverage artificially inflates asset prices without sustainable productivity gains. He cautions that high debt levels erode corporate earnings potential and amplify risks, making vulnerable to sharp corrections, and prefers bonds over equities when public debt exceeds 90-120% of GDP, as seen in the U.S. at approximately 125% by 2025. In such scenarios, equities face diminished returns due to squeezed margins and reduced capital investment, while bonds offer relative safety and yield advantages. Looking to late 2025, Hunt sees bonds as a compelling "buy of a lifetime" opportunity amid an anticipated triggered by tariffs, fiscal restraint, and weakening global liquidity, which could push long-term yields lower and enhance bond prices. With U.S. at 77.4% as of August 2025 (below the historical average of 80%) and unemployment rising to 4.3%, he forecasts tepid growth and heightened odds, positioning long-duration Treasuries for strong performance as investors seek refuge from economic slowdowns. HIMCO's Q2 2025 outlook reinforces this, describing the environment as "very attractive" for long-horizon investors in these securities.

Recognition and influence

Awards and honors

In 1974, Lacy Hunt received the Adolph C. Abramson Award from the National Association of Business Economists for his outstanding contributions to the field of business economics. Hunt was awarded the Certificate of Honor by the Temple University Alumni Association in 1983, recognizing his significant impact as a distinguished alumnus of the Fox School of Business. He has been recognized as a noteworthy in publications, highlighting his professional achievements in . In 2013, the University of the South (Sewanee) conferred upon Hunt an honorary Doctor of Civil Laws, acknowledging his lifetime contributions to and . Sewanee further honored Hunt with its Distinguished Alumnus Award in 2016, celebrating his exemplary career and service as a graduate of the Class of 1964. In October 2025, the Department of Economics unveiled a portrait of Hunt in a ceremony led by Department Chair Michael Bognanno, paying tribute to him as a distinguished alumnus and influential .

Publications and public appearances

Lacy Hunt has co-authored the Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook since joining in 1996, providing in-depth analyses of macroeconomic trends, impacts, and long-term economic forecasts in collaboration with Van Hoisington. This quarterly publication, issued by , examines key indicators such as debt dynamics and interest rate cycles, offering insights for institutional investors and economists. Hunt is the author of two books that build on his early career in econometric modeling: Dynamics of Forecasting: Financial Cycles, Theory and Techniques (1976), which explores predictive models for financial markets and business cycles, and A Time to Be Rich: Winning on in the (1987), a guide to investment strategies amid shifting economic conditions. These works draw from his research on and portfolio techniques developed during his time at financial institutions. He has contributed numerous articles to financial publications, focusing on deflationary pressures and burdens. Examples include pieces in Advisor Perspectives, such as "Lacy Hunt – Fed Policy is Destroying Growth" (2023), critiquing monetary policy's role in , and "Lacy Hunt: The Stability of the Economy is at Stake" (2022), warning of fiscal risks. In Financial Sense, his contributions include "Dr. Lacy Hunt on Endgame and Greatest Risk to Financial Markets" (2015), discussing over-indebted economies, and "Lacy Hunt: Cyclical Hurdles For A Highly Over-Leveraged " (2013), analyzing leverage's drag on growth. These articles often reference his award-winning econometric studies from the 1970s, such as models for predicting yields. Hunt has made several public appearances on podcasts and video platforms to discuss economic outlooks. On the Hidden Forces podcast, he appeared in episodes during the 2020s, including one in 2024 on America's national savings and debt crisis, and an earlier 2017 installment on global macro forces like debt, deflation, and demographics. In interviews with Wealthion from 2023 to 2025, he issued warnings about impending recessions and credit crunches, such as in "Lacy Hunt: Brace For A Credit Crunch + A 'Serious' Recession" (July 2023), highlighting deteriorating economic indicators. On YouTube, Hunt addressed inflation history in 2021 discussions, including "4 Reasons Why Inflation Will Be Replaced by Deflation in 2021" (July 2021) and "Breaking Down The History Of Inflation" (December 2021), using historical data to argue for deflationary trends.

References

  1. https://aum13f.com/firm/hoisington-investment-management-co
  2. https://www.americanbanker.com/author/dr-lacy-hunt-bb1533
  3. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-18/bond-guru-who-called-last-bear-market-40-years-ago-says-go-long
  4. https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/americas-national-savings-and-debt-crisis-lacy-hunt/
  5. https://liberalarts.temple.edu/news/2025/10/economics-department-honors-lacy-hunt-portrait-unveiling
  6. https://prabook.com/web/lacy_h.hunt/587227
  7. https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/lacy-hunt-phd
  8. https://rogermontgomery.com/are-liquidity-and-deflation-risks-emerging-one-economist-is-worried/
  9. https://www.napfa.org/conference-speaker/155/70477
  10. https://www.grantspub.com/includes/cfn_speakerBio.cfm?&sid=209
  11. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2325738
  12. https://www.grant-williams.com/podcast/the-end-game-ep-6-lacy-hunt/
  13. https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/4167805/79A739E49B1B02A5BD8921F3F89C72FB
  14. https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2014/05/28/the-last-long-bond-bulls-bet-on-falling-rates-sluggish-economy/
  15. https://www.nytimes.com/1979/11/05/archives/slump-now-expected-to-hit-in-1980-economists-see-delayed-deeper.html
  16. https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/lacy-hunt-debt-deflation-demographics/
  17. https://stansberryconferences.com/speaker/lacy-hunt/
  18. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-14/longtime-bond-bull-lacy-hunt-sees-one-huge-risk
  19. https://www.pionline.com/article/20120514/PRINT/305149957/long-term-bond-strategies-dominate-for-third-straight-quarter
  20. https://hoisington.com/
  21. https://hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2025Q3.pdf
  22. https://hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2025Q2NP.pdf
  23. https://hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2024Q1NP.pdf
  24. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-08/hoisington-s-hunt-says-the-bond-rally-is-just-getting-started
  25. https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2014/10/21/the-flat-debt-society/
  26. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/deflation-is-the-biggest-fear-of-leveraged-bond-markets
  27. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/z1/nonfinancial_debt/chart/
  28. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp
  29. https://hoisington.com/economic_overview.html
  30. https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2015/01/04/why-the-world-needs-the-us-economy-to-struggle/
  31. https://www.mauldineconomics.com/editorial/lacy-hunt-the-fed-has-undermined-the-economys-ability-to-grow
  32. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2023/05/04/lacy-hunt-fed-policy-is-destroying-growth
  33. https://financialrepressionauthority.com/2017/12/15/the-roundtable-insight-dr-lacy-hunt-on-the-unintended-consequences-of-federal-reserve-policies/
  34. https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/decoding-the-fed
  35. https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/uncertain-moments
  36. https://adamtaggart.substack.com/p/lacy-hunt-the-economy-is-seizing
  37. https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/casey-research/federal-reserve-policy-failures-are-mounting
  38. https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/when-tools-stop-working
  39. https://adamtaggart.substack.com/p/lacy-hunt-the-economy-is-far-worse
  40. https://jugglingdynamite.com/2025/05/06/lacy-hunt-five-recessionary-forces/
  41. https://hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2025Q1NP.pdf
  42. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2020-08-14/longtime-bond-bull-lacy-hunt-sees-one-huge-risk
  43. https://www.barrons.com/articles/no-inflation-in-sight-say-two-bond-masters-1455944528
  44. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-bond-market-veteran-lacy-hunt-offers-outlook-on-yields/
  45. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WHOSX/performance/
  46. https://forklog.com/en/lacy-hunt-on-the-fed-and-americas-outlook/
  47. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2017/06/05/dr-lacy-hunt-notes-from-the-2017-strategic-investment-conference-part-2
  48. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4803809-hoisington-investment-management-q2-2025-review-outlook
  49. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCU
  50. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
  51. https://alumni.temple.edu/s/705/images/editor_documents/past-impact.pdf
  52. https://new.sewanee.edu/files/resources/hc-awards-bklt-23_rev.pdf
  53. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/firm/hoisington-investment-management
  54. https://www.abebooks.com/9780892563258/Time-Rich-Lacy-H-Hunt-0892563257/plp
  55. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/05/13/lacy-hunt-the-stability-of-the-us-economy-is-at-stake
  56. https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/dr-lacy-hunt/us-endgame-greatest-market-risk
  57. https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/lance-roberts/cyclical-hurdles-highly-over-leveraged-economy
  58. https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/RichmondFedOrg/publications/research/economic_review/1976/pdf/er620502.pdf
  59. https://wealthion.com/lacy-hunt-brace-for-a-credit-crunch-a-serious-recession/
  60. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWdReNNOx9Y
  61. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNLl10TvHIY
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