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Richard Roll
Richard Roll
Richard Roll
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Richard Roll (born October 31, 1939) is an American economist and professor of finance at CalTech, best known for his work on portfolio theory and asset pricing, both theoretical and empirical.

He earned his bachelor's degree in aerospace engineering from Auburn University in 1961, and his M.B.A. in 1963 at the University of Washington while working for Boeing in Seattle, Washington. In 1968, he received his Ph.D. from the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago in economics, finance, and statistics. His Ph.D. thesis, "The Behavior of Interest Rates: An Application of the Efficient Market Model to U.S. Treasury Bills," won the Irving Fisher Prize as the best American dissertation in economics in 1968.

Roll co-authored the first event study that sought to analyze how stock prices respond to an event in 1969,[1] using price data from the newly available CRSP database. Roll has co-authored major papers with Stephen Ross,[2][3][4] Eugene Fama,[1][5][6] Michael Jensen[1] and Kenneth French.[7]

Roll took an Assistant Professor position at Carnegie-Mellon University in 1968, a professorship at the European Institute for Advance Studies in Management in 1973, and Centre d'Enseignement Superiéure des Affaires in 1975. In 1976, Roll joined the faculty at UCLA, from which he retired as Japan Alumni Chair Professor of Finance in 2014. In 1987, Roll was elected president of the American Finance Association. Roll has published over 80 professional articles.[citation needed][8]

In addition to his academic work, Roll has also been active in the money management industry. From 1985-1987, he took a leave of absence from UCLA and worked at Goldman Sachs.[8] In 1985 he also co-founded Roll and Ross Asset Management Corporation with Stephen Ross. Roll was co-chairman until 2005.

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Richard Roll

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Richard Roll (born October 31, 1939) is an American economist and specializing in and portfolio theory. He is best known for co-developing the (APT) with Stephen Ross, providing an empirical test of the theory, and authoring the influential "Roll's critique" of tests for the (CAPM), which questioned the validity of empirical evaluations of the model due to the joint hypothesis problem. Additionally, Roll introduced the "hubris hypothesis" to explain managerial overconfidence in corporate takeovers, suggesting that overpayment in acquisitions often stems from executives' excessive belief in their abilities rather than synergy gains. His work has profoundly shaped modern , with over 100 published articles and a career marked by in academic and professional spheres. Roll's early education and career reflected a blend of and . He earned a B.S. in Aeronautical Engineering from in 1961, followed by an M.B.A. from the in 1963, and a Ph.D. in , , and Statistics from the in 1968, where his dissertation on bond yields won the Prize. After graduation, he began as an assistant professor at from 1968 to 1973 and worked as an aeronautical engineer at before entering . In the 1980s, he served as a vice president at , where he pioneered the trading of mortgage-backed securities, and co-founded Roll & Ross Asset Management with Stephen Ross. He also established Compensation Valuation Inc. to advise on and firm valuations in legal contexts. In 1976, Roll joined the as a professor of , holding prestigious chairs including the Chair (1982–2002), Japan Alumni Chair (2002–2011), and Joel Fried Chair (2011–2014), before retiring in 2014. He then became the Linde Institute Professor of at the (Caltech) in 2014, where he teaches undergraduate and graduate courses on and economics. Roll has served as president of the American Finance Association (AFA) and as a fellow of the Econometric Society, influencing generations of scholars through his mentorship and editorial roles on journals such as the Journal of Finance. Roll's research extends to volatility puzzles, such as his demonstration that stock return volatility far exceeds what can be explained by changes or news events—often capturing only about 30% in his "R-squared" analysis—and critiques of financial crises, including attributing the 2008 downturn primarily to market excesses rather than alone. His accolades include four Graham and Dodd Awards of Excellence, the Prize, the Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Award (2013), the Ross Prize for best finance paper (2013), the Dean's Mentoring Award (2014), and the Onassis Prize in Finance (2015, shared with Stewart Myers). These honors underscore his enduring impact on quantitative finance and .

Early Life and Education

Early Life

Richard Roll was born on October 31, 1939, in Arkansas. His mother worked as a nurse and served in the military during World War II, leaving Roll to be raised by his maternal grandparents while she was away; their surname, Roll, became his own. He was legally adopted by his grandparents after the war, with his legal father listed as Richard Whittington, though Roll later believed his biological father to be a Cajun shrimp boat captain named Richard Bascaux—a claim later disproved by DNA testing. His paternal grandfather was a prominent Baptist pastor and political figure in Arkansas. Roll spent his early childhood in , until the age of seven, after which the family relocated frequently due to his grandfather's executive roles in the railroad industry, moving to , then Kansas City, and finally St. Joseph, Missouri. Describing himself as a "country boy from ," he grew up in a rural environment that shaped his early years. From a young age, Roll demonstrated strong technical aptitude, skipping the and excelling in and , which sparked his initial interest in quantitative fields and eventually influenced his pursuit of .

Education

Roll earned a Bachelor of (B.A.E.) from in 1961, where his studies in a quantitative discipline laid the groundwork for his later analytical approach to . Following graduation, he worked at while pursuing and earning his M.B.A. from the in 1963, reflecting an early pivot toward applied quantitative fields. Roll completed his Ph.D. in , , and statistics at the Graduate School of Business in 1968. His dissertation, titled "The Behavior of Interest Rates: An Application of the Efficient Market Model to U.S. Treasury Bills," examined the term structure of interest rates through the lens of market efficiency and won the Prize for outstanding doctoral dissertation in . Supervised primarily by Eugene F. Fama as dissertation chairman, with committee members including Merton Miller, Rueben Kessel, and Arnold Zellner, Roll's doctoral work was shaped by Chicago's rigorous emphasis on empirical methods and free-market economics. Influential courses in and , alongside interactions with luminaries like and , honed his focus on and econometric techniques.

Academic and Professional Career

Early Academic Positions

Following the completion of his Ph.D. in economics, finance, and statistics from the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago in 1968, Richard Roll began his academic career as an Assistant Professor of Finance at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. He held this position from 1968 to 1971, during which his responsibilities included teaching graduate-level courses in finance, economics, and related areas. In 1971, he was promoted to Associate Professor, continuing in that role until 1973 while developing his early research interests in empirical methods for financial markets. In 1973, Roll transitioned to the European Institute for Advanced Studies in Management (EIASM) in , , where he served as a full until 1975. Roll's next move, from 1975 to 1976, was to the Centre d’Enseignement Supérieur des Affaires (CESA) in , , as Professeur Associé. These successive positions in marked a period of professional broadening before his return to the .

UCLA Tenure and Leadership Roles

Richard Roll joined the as a Professor of in 1976, following his earlier academic positions at institutions such as , which provided foundational experience in . Over the course of his 38-year tenure, he advanced through several prestigious endowed chairs, beginning with the Allstate Chair from 1982 to 2002, followed by the Japan Alumni Chair from 2002 to 2011, and concluding with the Joel Fried Chair in Applied from 2011 to 2014. Roll retired from UCLA in 2014, assuming the title of Professor . Following his retirement from UCLA, Roll joined the (Caltech) as the Linde Institute Professor of in 2016, where he teaches undergraduate and graduate courses on and . In addition to his professorial roles, Roll took on significant responsibilities within the broader academic community during his UCLA tenure. He served as President of the American Finance Association in 1987, a position that highlighted his stature in the field and involved overseeing key organizational activities, including the planning of the annual meeting and fostering advancements in scholarship. This role underscored his commitment to the profession's development, bridging academic research with practical applications in education and policy. Roll's contributions to teaching at UCLA were substantial, particularly in core areas of financial theory. He developed and instructed courses such as Money and Capital Markets (Mgt. 233A) in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and International Financial Markets (Mgt. 234A) from the through , which incorporated principles of portfolio theory and . Additionally, he taught advanced seminars like Mgt. 231D on empirical methods in and Mgt. 239B/C on quantitative portfolio management, often in collaboration with international programs such as the UCLA-Fudan joint initiative in , influencing generations of students in models and strategies.

Industry Involvement

In 1985, Richard Roll took a leave of absence from his position at to join & Co. as Vice President and Director of the Mortgage Securities Research Group, a role he held until 1987. In this capacity, he founded and led the group, which grew to include 53 staff members, half of whom held PhDs in physics or , and focused on developing trading models for mortgage-backed securities. Roll applied his academic expertise in empirical finance to practical challenges, such as creating prepayment models for fixed-rate mortgages and option-pricing frameworks for adjustable-rate mortgages, while also contributing to innovations like stripped mortgage-backed securities and underwriting collateralized mortgage obligations. His work produced influential industry reports, including analyses of relative values in (GNMA) securities and the characteristics of collateralized mortgage obligations. Concurrently in 1985, Roll co-founded Roll and Ross Asset Management Corporation with Stephen A. Ross, serving as co-chairman of the board until 2005. The firm, based in , specialized in equity money management and grew to manage approximately $1 billion in assets by its third year, serving institutional clients such as the and , as well as mutual funds for entities like and the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency. With offices in , New Haven, and , and a staff of 15, the company emphasized quantitative approaches to investment. In his leadership role at Roll and Ross, Roll personally oversaw portfolio selection, bridging his theoretical with real-world asset strategies by pioneering the use of multifactor models—rooted in the he had empirically tested with Ross—to construct investment portfolios that outperformed market benchmarks. This application of academic multifactor frameworks to equity management allowed the firm to identify and exploit factors in stock returns, enhancing diversification and risk-adjusted performance for clients. In 2003, Roll founded Compensation Valuation Inc., a consulting firm where he serves as principal, advising on , firm valuations, and related matters in legal contexts.

Research Contributions

Event Study Methodology

Richard Roll co-authored the seminal 1969 paper "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information" with Eugene F. Fama, Lawrence Fisher, and , which introduced the methodology to empirical . Published in the International Economic Review, the paper examined how stock prices respond to new information, providing the first formal framework for testing market efficiency through event-based analysis. As the inaugural formal event study, the work established a cornerstone empirical tool for research by demonstrating how to quantify the speed and magnitude of price adjustments to corporate events. Prior to this, empirical tests of market efficiency relied on broader time-series analyses, but the paper shifted focus to isolated events, enabling precise hypothesis testing about information incorporation. This methodology has since become ubiquitous in assessing event impacts, influencing thousands of studies on topics from mergers to announcements. The core of the event study methodology involves measuring abnormal returns—the difference between actual and expected returns—around a specific event to evaluate market efficiency. Expected returns are estimated using a market model, where the logarithm of a stock's return RjtR_{jt} for jj at time tt is regressed against the logarithm of a market index LtL_t: log⁡(Rjt)=αj+βjlog⁡(Lt)+ujt\log(R_{jt}) = \alpha_j + \beta_j \log(L_t) + u_{jt} Here, the residuals ujtu_{jt} capture abnormal performance, adjusted for systematic market movements via Fisher's market index. Cumulative abnormal returns are then aggregated over event windows (e.g., days before and after the event) to test whether prices fully reflect new information promptly, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. The approach assumes semi-strong form efficiency, where public announcements are rapidly impounded in prices without predictable drifts. In the paper, the methodology was applied to 940 stock splits on the from 1927 to 1959, selected for requiring at least 24 months of pre- and post-event price-dividend data. Stock splits served as the focal event because they often signal underlying firm performance, such as growth, and are frequently accompanied by changes. revealed elevated abnormal returns in the 29 months preceding splits, averaging positive residuals linked to superior rather than the split itself. Post-split, returns normalized rapidly, with the market adjusting to information by the split month; for instance, 71.5% of splits were followed by increases, leading to slight upward drifts, while decreases prompted drops. These findings supported efficient markets, as price reactions completed near the event date without prolonged anomalies.

Arbitrage Pricing Theory

Richard Roll made significant contributions to the development and empirical validation of the (APT), a multifactor model proposed by Stephen Ross in 1976. The core concept of APT posits that the expected returns of assets are determined by their sensitivities (betas) to multiple factors, rather than a single market factor, under the assumption of no arbitrage opportunities in well-diversified portfolios. This framework allows for a linear relationship between expected returns and exposure to these factors, providing a more flexible alternative to the (CAPM) by accommodating diverse sources of without requiring a specified market portfolio. In collaboration with Ross, Roll conducted one of the earliest and most influential empirical investigations of APT in their 1980 paper, "An Empirical Investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory." Using monthly return data for individual U.S. equities from July 1962 to December 1972, they analyzed 1,260 securities divided into 42 portfolios of 30 stocks each to mitigate idiosyncratic risk. Their methodology employed maximum-likelihood factor analysis on the covariance matrices of these portfolios to identify underlying factors, estimating up to five potential factors and using chi-square tests to assess their significance. The tests revealed at least three, and possibly four, "priced" factors influencing returns, with expected returns linearly related to these factor loadings rather than individual asset volatility, thus supporting APT's multifactor structure. The empirical results demonstrated APT's superior compared to single-factor models like CAPM. In 88.1% of the portfolio groups, at least one factor was significant, and 57.1% showed two or more, rejecting the single-factor hypothesis in most cases. Cross-sectional regressions confirmed that factor betas explained variations in average returns, with the model's performance indicating that multiple risks are necessary for accurate pricing, outperforming CAPM's reliance on market beta alone. Roll also addressed key challenges in testing APT, emphasizing issues of testability and factor identification in the 1980 paper and related works. The theory's reliance on approximate arbitrage conditions for finite asset universes and the use of statistical —rather than economically specified factors—leads to identification problems, as the exact number and nature of factors remain empirically ambiguous without a . These critiques highlight that while APT provides a robust theoretical foundation, empirical implementations require careful consideration of diversification limits and factor extraction methods to avoid misinterpretation of results.

Multifactor Asset Pricing Models

In collaboration with Nai-Fu Chen and Stephen A. Ross, Richard Roll developed an empirical implementation of multifactor by incorporating observable macroeconomic variables into the framework. Their seminal 1986 paper, "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," posits that unanticipated changes in key economic state variables drive premiums across assets, providing a testable structure for pricing stock returns beyond single-factor models. The model identifies several macroeconomic factors as primary drivers of stock return covariation, including the monthly growth rate in industrial production, changes in expected and unexpected , unanticipated shifts in the term structure of rates (measured as the spread between long- and short-term government bonds), and unanticipated changes in the (the spread between low- and high-grade corporate bonds). These factors capture real economic risks such as production shocks, inflationary pressures, and shifts in borrowing costs, which are expected to influence discount rates and cash flows for broad classes of securities. For instance, positive surprises in industrial production growth are associated with higher equity returns, reflecting compensation for risk, while rises in unexpected tend to depress returns due to erosion of real values. Empirical tests in the paper utilize time-series regressions on portfolios of NYSE stocks from 1958 to 1984, demonstrating that these factors explain a significant portion of return variation, with adjusted R-squared values often exceeding 0.70 for well-diversified portfolios. Cross-sectional pricing tests further confirm the factors' significance, showing that assets' sensitivities (lambdas) to these variables predict expected returns, particularly for industrial production and term structure factors, which exhibit robust positive risk premiums around 0.5% to 1% per unit beta monthly. The model's robustness is evidenced by its performance across subperiods and portfolio sorts, outperforming the CAPM in explaining return spreads, though factors display some sensitivity to measurement proxies like consumer price indices. Roll continued refining multifactor models in subsequent publications, emphasizing empirical identification and testing protocols to address issues like factor correlation and measurement error. For example, in later work, he advocated for protocols to rigorously identify pervasive factors from large datasets, ensuring economic interpretability and avoiding data-mining biases in multifactor specifications. These refinements have influenced modern applications, such as integrating for factor discovery while maintaining ties to macroeconomic fundamentals.

Roll's Critique of the CAPM

Roll introduced the "Roll's critique" in his 1977 paper "A Critique of the Asset Pricing Theory's Tests: Part I: On Past and Potential Testability of the Theory," published in the Journal of Financial Economics. The critique argues that tests of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) suffer from the joint hypothesis problem: empirical tests simultaneously evaluate the CAPM's pricing relation and the efficiency of the chosen market proxy. Since the true market portfolio is unobservable, any rejection of CAPM could stem from a poor proxy rather than the model's invalidity, rendering definitive tests impossible. This insight has profoundly influenced asset pricing research, shifting focus from falsifying CAPM to exploring alternative models like multifactor frameworks.

Hubris Hypothesis

In his 1986 paper "The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers," published in the Journal of Business, Roll proposed the hubris hypothesis to explain overpayment in . The hypothesis posits that bidding firms' managers often overpay due to excessive confidence in their ability to generate synergies, driven by overestimation of private information rather than rational assessment of gains. from the paper shows that acquirers frequently experience negative announcement returns, supporting the idea that hubris leads to value destruction, challenging synergy-based rationales for takeovers. This work has shaped literature on behavioral biases in M&A.

Volatility Puzzles

Roll contributed to understanding stock return volatility puzzles, notably in studies examining why observed volatility exceeds what can be explained by fundamental news or dividend changes. In related work, such as analyses building on Shiller's variance bounds, Roll demonstrated that news events and dividend announcements account for only a fraction—often around 30%—of aggregate stock market volatility, as measured by low R-squared values in regression models linking returns to information releases. This finding, echoed in his critiques and empirical papers from the 1980s onward, highlights excess volatility and challenges rational expectations models, influencing debates on market efficiency and behavioral finance.

Awards and Legacy

Major Awards

Richard Roll received the Award in 1968 from the for his doctoral dissertation, "The Behavior of Interest Rates: An Application of the Efficient Market Model to U.S. Treasury Bills," which was recognized as the best American dissertation in economics that year. This early accolade highlighted his foundational contributions to efficient market theory and interest rate dynamics, setting the stage for his influential work in . Roll was elected a of the American Finance Association in 2000, an honor bestowed for lifetime contributions to the field of . The fellowship recognizes scholars whose research has significantly advanced the discipline, underscoring Roll's enduring impact through seminal papers on topics like the and arbitrage pricing. He earned the Graham and Dodd Award of Excellence for outstanding financial writing four times, in 1988 for "The International Crash of October 1987," in 1990 for contributions to , in 2004 for "Empirical TIPS," and in 2005 (as a ) for "A Delegated-Agent Asset-Pricing Model" co-authored with Bradford Cornell. These awards, presented by the , celebrate articles in the Financial Analysts Journal that provide exceptional insights into investment practice and theory, reflecting Roll's ability to bridge academic rigor with practical applications in portfolio management. In 1990, Roll was awarded the Leo Melamed Prize by the for outstanding scholarship in financial research among business school professors. This prize honors innovative work that influences financial markets and policy, particularly Roll's contributions to multifactor models and event studies. Roll received the Nicholas Molodovsky Award in 2002 from the Association for Investment Management and Research (now CFA Institute) for outstanding contributions to the investment profession over his career. The award emphasizes long-term excellence in research and education, acknowledging Roll's role in shaping modern asset pricing frameworks. In 2013, Roll received the Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Award for the best paper published that year in the Journal of Portfolio Management, recognizing his innovative research in asset pricing. In 2014, he was awarded the UCLA Anderson Dean's Prize for Outstanding Faculty Mentorship of Ph.D. Students, honoring his guidance of doctoral candidates in . In 2015, he shared the Onassis Prize for Finance with , awarded by the Onassis Foundation to leading academics for lifetime achievements in the field. Valued at €400,000 and focused on , international trade, and shipping, the prize recognizes Roll's pioneering research on portfolio theory and empirical , which has informed global investment strategies.

Influence on Financial Economics

Richard Roll's scholarly output spans over 120 professional journal articles, alongside books, chapters, and working papers, amassing nearly 40,000 citations across his career. His seminal works, such as the 1977 critique of (CAPM) tests, have garnered thousands of citations individually and fundamentally challenged empirical methodologies in , influencing subsequent research on model validation. Roll's contributions have profoundly shaped by emphasizing the practical limitations of theoretical benchmarks like the market portfolio, thereby redirecting focus toward multifactor models and robust empirical testing in . In empirical , his innovations in econometric approaches have become standard tools for analyzing market efficiency and risk premia, while his involvement in (APT) development has fueled ongoing debates about factor structures in asset returns. These ideas permeate contemporary discussions, where Roll's insistence on observable proxies for untestable assumptions continues to guide theoretical refinements and practical applications in . Through decades of teaching at UCLA and Caltech, Roll mentored generations of students and scholars, fostering advancements in quantitative methods that remain integral to academic training. His industry engagements, including roles at and as principal of Compensation Valuation, Inc., extended his influence to policy and practice, informing strategies and regulatory perspectives on market dynamics. Awards such as the Graham and Dodd Awards (1988, 1990, 2004, 2005) underscore this recognition. As of 2025, at age 86, Roll serves as a retired professor emeritus from UCLA and continues in a distinguished capacity at Caltech, where his frameworks endure in curricula worldwide, ensuring his legacy drives both research and education.

References

  1. https://heritageproject.caltech.edu/interviews/richard-roll
  2. https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/finance/faculty/roll
  3. https://www.hss.caltech.edu/documents/4224/Roll_Richard_2021.pdf
  4. https://afajof.org/past-presidents/
  5. https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/fac/finance/RICHARD_W._ROLL_CV.pdf
  6. https://www.irwincollier.com/carnegie-mellon-economics-of-the-firm-reading-list-richard-w-roll-1967/
  7. https://www.pm-research.com/richard-roll
  8. https://obj.portfolioconstructionforum.edu.au/articles_perspectives/The-Adjustment-Of-Stock-Prices-To-New-Information.pdf
  9. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1008295500105
  10. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5157403_The_Event_Study_Methodology_Since_1969
  11. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1980.tb02197.x
  12. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2352710
  13. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0304405X77900154
  14. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/296379
  15. https://afajof.org/fellows/
  16. https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/sites/default/files/docs/support/g-d-fulllist.pdf
  17. https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/caltech-economist-richard-roll-wins-onassis-prize-finance-46077
  18. https://newsroom.ucla.edu/faculty-bulletin-board/anderson-prof-wins-award-for-best-paper
  19. https://newsroom.ucla.edu/dept/faculty/richard-roll-receives-ucla-anderson-s-2014-deans-prize
  20. https://newsroom.ucla.edu/dept/faculty/professor-richard-roll-wins-2015-onassis-prize-for-finance
  21. https://www.onassis.org/initiatives/onassis-prizes/onassis-prizes-2015-awarding
  22. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Richard-Roll
  23. https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/fac/finance/1977-2.pdf
  24. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0304405X77900095
  25. https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2018/preliminary/paper/e7QA7zEa
  26. https://www.newfrontieradvisors.com/media/ne0bx1ba/richard-roll-and-tests-of-the-capital-asset-pricing-model-bache.pdf
  27. https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/about/centers/fink-center-for-finance
  28. https://scispace.com/authors/richard-roll-27w44m6o15
  29. https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-roll-2b53b8b0
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