List of terrorist attacks in Kabul

Kabul, the capital and largest city of Afghanistan, has endured hundreds of terrorist attacks since the 1990s, primarily executed by Islamist militant groups including the Taliban, the Haqqani Network, and, following the Taliban's 2021 return to power, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), targeting government targets, civilians, ethnic minorities, and international personnel through tactics such as suicide bombings, vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, and assassinations.^[1][2] These incidents, concentrated in urban areas amid prolonged insurgencies and civil strife, have resulted in thousands of deaths and injuries, reflecting causal drivers like ideological opposition to secular governance, sectarian animosities, and competition for territorial control.^[3] Prior to 2021, the Taliban and affiliates conducted the majority of operations against the U.S.-backed Afghan republic, often claiming them as resistance to foreign occupation, though empirically qualifying as terrorism due to deliberate civilian endangerment and political coercion via violence.^[4] Under Taliban rule, ISIS-K has sustained attacks on Shia Hazara communities, mosques, and regime installations, exploiting governance vacuums and ethnic fault lines, with notable spikes in 2021 including the Kabul airport bombing that killed 169 Afghans and 13 U.S. service members.^[5][6] The escalation post-2001 U.S. intervention saw annual attacks in Afghanistan exceed 1,000 by the late 2010s, with Kabul bearing a disproportionate share due to its symbolic and strategic value, though precise city-level tallies from databases like the Global Terrorism Database highlight urban vulnerability without inflating totals through unverified claims.^[7] Defining characteristics include the opportunistic targeting of "soft" sites like schools, protests, and markets, as seen in ISIS-K's assault on a Kabul educational center in 2021 killing dozens of students, and Taliban-era strikes on diplomatic compounds.^[8] Controversies persist over attribution, with militant groups sometimes denying involvement amid rival propaganda, but forensic evidence and perpetrator admissions substantiate patterns of jihadist culpability over state or proxy narratives.^[2] Despite Taliban claims of suppressing rivals since 2021, ISIS-K's persistence—evidenced by mosque bombings and minority persecutions—indicates underlying ideological fractures within Salafi-jihadist networks, unmitigated by current rule.^[5]

Background and Context

Historical Origins of Terrorism in Kabul

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 ignited a decade-long jihad by mujahideen factions against the communist government and its occupiers, fostering networks of Islamist radicals that would later underpin terrorism in the region. While mujahideen operations focused mainly on rural ambushes and sabotage, Kabul witnessed sporadic urban violence, including assassinations of government officials and bombings targeting Soviet installations, as groups like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami sought to undermine regime control.^[9] This period radicalized fighters through Wahhabi-influenced funding from Saudi Arabia and ideological training via Pakistani madrassas, creating a cadre of battle-hardened Islamists whose tactics blurred guerrilla warfare with civilian intimidation.^[10] Following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 and the collapse of the Najibullah regime in April 1992, intra-mujahideen rivalries escalated into a brutal civil war that devastated Kabul, marking the direct onset of sustained terrorist-like violence against the city's population. Factions such as Hezb-e-Islami under Hekmatyar, allied with Pashtun forces from the south, bombarded Kabul with unguided rockets and artillery from 1992 to 1995, deliberately targeting residential districts to coerce surrender and instill fear amid power struggles with northern alliances led by Ahmad Shah Massoud.^[9] These attacks killed an estimated 20,000 to 65,000 civilians in Kabul alone, displacing hundreds of thousands and reducing much of the city to rubble, with Human Rights Watch documenting patterns of indiscriminate fire as war crimes intended to terrorize non-combatants.^{[10] [11]} The civil war's chaos, exacerbated by foreign-backed factionalism—Pakistan's ISI favoring Hekmatyar and Gulf states funding Islamist elements—eroded state authority and primed Kabul for extremist resurgence. By 1994, warlord infighting had created a security vacuum exploited by the Taliban, who seized the capital in September 1996 promising an end to the anarchy, though their rule harbored al-Qaeda precursors that globalized the jihadist threat.^[12] This pre-2001 era established terrorism in Kabul not merely as insurgency but as a tool of ideological and tribal dominance, rooted in causal failures of post-Soviet power-sharing and unchecked radical militias.

Criteria for Classifying Attacks as Terrorism

The classification of attacks as terrorism requires the deliberate use of violence or the threat thereof against non-combatants to coerce or intimidate governments, societies, or segments thereof in pursuit of political, religious, ideological, or social objectives. This standard draws from established frameworks such as the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), maintained by the University of Maryland's START consortium, which defines terrorist incidents as the threatened or actual use of illegal force by non-state actors to attain such goals via intimidation directed at audiences beyond immediate victims, excluding acts primarily involving legitimate military targets or interpersonal criminality.^[13] The GTD's criteria emphasize perpetrator intent, civilian targeting, and subnational/group motivation, applied consistently to over 200,000 global events since 1970, providing an empirical basis for differentiation from warfare or crime.^[14] In Kabul's context, where armed insurgency overlaps with civilian violence, attacks qualify as terrorism if they involve non-state or insurgent groups—such as the Taliban, Haqqani Network, or ISIS-K—employing tactics like suicide bombings, shootings, or improvised explosive devices against unprotected civilians in markets, schools, mosques, or government facilities, irrespective of any professed military rationale.^[5][15] U.S. government assessments, including those from the Department of State, classify such incidents as terrorist when they result in indiscriminate civilian harm and align with the objectives of designated foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), as outlined in annual Country Reports on Terrorism, which track events based on verified claims of responsibility, eyewitness accounts, and forensic evidence rather than perpetrator self-justification.^[16][17] For example, the 2021 Abbey Gate bombing outside Kabul's airport, killing 13 U.S. service members and over 170 Afghans, met these thresholds due to ISIS-K's ideological intent to undermine the U.S. withdrawal and terrorize the populace, as confirmed by intelligence and post-incident investigations.^[18] Key exclusions prevent conflation with conventional combat: attacks on fortified military positions or during active engagements between opposing armed forces do not qualify, even if collateral civilian damage occurs, per international humanitarian law distinctions upheld by bodies like the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which notes that labeling violence as "terrorism" in armed conflict carries no independent legal weight absent deliberate civilian targeting.^[19] Source credibility informs application; reports from outlets or institutions with documented ideological biases—such as those minimizing Islamist motivations in Afghan violence—must be cross-verified against primary data from neutral trackers like the GTD or official U.S. designations, prioritizing empirical incident details over narrative framing.^[4] Claims of responsibility by perpetrators, while indicative, are weighed against evidence of non-combatant focus, as groups like the Taliban have occasionally reclassified civilian-targeted strikes as "legitimate" post-facto to evade scrutiny.^[20] This rigorous threshold ensures the list captures only those attacks verifiably designed to instill widespread fear for coercive ends, excluding intra-factional killings, banditry, or state-directed operations.

Perpetrators and Ideological Drivers

Primary Groups Responsible

The Taliban has been the predominant perpetrator of terrorist attacks in Kabul from the early 2000s through 2021, conducting numerous suicide bombings, vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) assaults, and assassinations targeting Afghan security forces, government officials, and civilians perceived as collaborators with international forces.^[8] During this period, the group, including its Haqqani Network affiliate, claimed responsibility for high-profile incidents such as the 2014 assault on the Serena Hotel and multiple attacks on NATO convoys and checkpoints in the capital, leveraging Kabul's urban density for maximum casualties.^[12] The Taliban's tactics evolved to include complex coordinated operations, with data from U.S. government assessments indicating they accounted for the majority of attributed attacks in urban centers like Kabul amid the post-2001 insurgency.^[21] Since the Taliban's 2021 takeover of Kabul, their role as direct perpetrators has diminished, with official claims of suppressing rival threats leading to fewer overall incidents, though skepticism persists regarding their selective enforcement against groups aligned with their ideology.^[5] In this era, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), an affiliate of the Islamic State declared in 2015, has emerged as the primary active terrorist entity in Kabul, executing attacks against Taliban governance symbols, Shia minorities (often Hazaras), and public gatherings to undermine the regime and propagate global jihadist narratives.^[22] ISKP's operations include the August 2021 Kabul airport bombing killing 13 U.S. service members and over 170 Afghans, as well as a September 2024 suicide attack in the capital claiming six lives, with the group explicitly targeting what it views as apostate Taliban rule and Western influences.^[8][23] U.S. intelligence designates ISKP as a transnational threat, noting its recruitment from disillusioned Taliban defectors and foreign fighters, enabling sustained urban strikes despite Taliban countermeasures.^[2] Other groups, such as Al-Qaeda remnants and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), have sporadically contributed to Kabul's attack landscape, often through logistical support or opportunistic strikes, but lack the operational scale of Taliban/ISKP dominance; Al-Qaeda's presence focuses more on safe-haven utilization than direct Kabul-centric terrorism post-2021.^[6] Attribution challenges persist due to overlapping ideologies and denied claims, but empirical patterns from incident databases and official reports confirm Taliban/ISKP as the core drivers across phases of Kabul's terrorism history.^[24]

Motivations Rooted in Islamist Extremism

Terrorist attacks in Kabul have frequently been driven by Islamist extremist ideologies, particularly those espousing Deobandi and Salafi-jihadist interpretations of Islam, which frame violence as obligatory jihad to establish divine governance, eradicate apostasy, and combat perceived infidel influences. Groups such as the Taliban and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) justify assaults on the Afghan capital—symbolizing centralized authority and Western-aligned institutions—as necessary to dismantle "un-Islamic" regimes, expel foreign occupiers, and purify society through takfir (declaring Muslims as apostates deserving death). These motivations prioritize theocratic supremacy over national boundaries, viewing civilian and military targets alike as legitimate for advancing a global or regional caliphate/emirate.^[2][25] The Taliban's Deobandi-rooted extremism motivates attacks to enforce Hanafi Sharia law and resist what they term a corrupt, puppet government propped by NATO forces, with Kabul's urban centers targeted to erode state legitimacy and coerce submission. From 2001 onward, Taliban operations in the capital aimed to punish collaborators, disrupt governance, and signal unyielding commitment to an Islamic emirate, often rationalizing bombings of markets, checkpoints, and offices as retribution against those enabling "infidel" occupation. Post-2021, while ruling Afghanistan, the Taliban has faced intra-Islamist rivalry but historically shared core drivers like anti-Western jihad, which fueled pre-takeover strikes killing hundreds in Kabul to accelerate collapse of the Republic.^[8][26] ISIS-K, adhering to a more puritanical Salafi-jihadism, escalates these motivations by condemning the Taliban as compromisers and launching attacks in Kabul to assert ideological dominance, recruit globally, and execute sectarian purification campaigns against Shia Muslims deemed heretics. High-profile strikes, such as the 2021 bombing at Kabul airport and assaults on Hazara-dominated neighborhoods like Dasht-e-Barchi, explicitly target "polytheistic" minorities during events like Ashura to incite communal fear and propagate caliphate loyalty, with propaganda framing victims as rafidah (rejectors) obstructing true Islam. This sectarian jihad, intertwined with anti-Taliban operations even after 2021, underscores ISIS-K's aim to outflank rivals by maximizing spectacle and casualties in the capital, positioning Kabul as a frontline for transnational holy war.^[25][27][28] Both groups' ideologies converge on causal mechanisms like fatwas legitimizing suicide operations as martyrdom, drawing from historical precedents in Afghan jihad against Soviets, yet diverge in scope: Taliban focuses on local emirate restoration, while ISIS-K pursues borderless expansion. Empirical patterns show over 80% of Kabul attacks from 2015-2021 linked to these drivers, per UN monitoring, with motivations undiluted by secular grievances despite occasional tactical alliances.^[29][30]

Patterns and Tactics

Common Targets and Methods

Suicide bombings and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have been the predominant methods in terrorist attacks in Kabul, often combined with small-arms fire in complex assaults to maximize casualties in densely populated areas.^[31][4] These tactics, employed primarily by the Taliban, Haqqani Network affiliates, and ISIS-K (Islamic State Khorasan Province), accounted for over 40% of civilian casualties nationwide in documented periods, with Kabul experiencing a disproportionate share due to its status as the political and population center.^[31] Non-suicide IEDs, including pressure-plate and remote-controlled variants, targeted vehicles and checkpoints, while suicide vests or vehicle-borne IEDs struck soft targets like mosques and markets.^[31][4] Primary targets encompass Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) at military installations and checkpoints, civilian government facilities, and international organizations, reflecting insurgents' aims to erode state authority and foreign influence.^[4] ISIS-K operations frequently focused on sectarian objectives, such as Shia mosques and Hazara-populated neighborhoods in western Kabul (e.g., Dasht-e-Barchi), using mass-casualty suicide attacks to provoke communal violence; these caused hundreds of casualties in single incidents, like the 2017 mosque bombings.^[31] Taliban-linked attacks prioritized ANDSF convoys and bases but increasingly hit civilian gatherings, including protests, universities, and markets, to instill widespread fear.^[4] Educational sites, particularly those serving girls or Hazaras, faced bombings to suppress reformist elements, as seen in attacks on schools and coaching centers.^[31] Post-2021, under Taliban rule, ISIS-K shifted tactics to IEDs and shootings against Taliban personnel and perceived apostates, while retaining suicide bombings against minorities, though overall incidents declined due to Taliban counteroperations.^[8][20] These methods exploit Kabul's urban density for high lethality, with perpetrators leveraging local recruits for infiltration.^[31]

Trends in Frequency and Lethality

Terrorist attacks in Kabul exhibited low frequency prior to 2001, limited largely to sporadic violence amid the Afghan civil war and Taliban rule, where ideological insurgencies were not systematically classified as terrorism in the modern sense. Following the US-led invasion and ouster of the Taliban, frequency escalated markedly during the 2001–2021 insurgency era, driven by Taliban and Haqqani network operations aimed at destabilizing the Afghan government; annual incidents in the capital rose from a handful in the early 2000s to dozens or more by the mid-2010s, coinciding with national trends showing over 1,700 attacks across Afghanistan in 2020 before declining to 1,244 in 2021 amid Taliban advances.^[8][32] Lethality intensified over time due to tactical shifts toward high-explosive suicide bombings and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), which maximized casualties in densely populated urban areas; early attacks often involved small-arms ambushes with lower fatalities, but by the 2010s, ISIS-K's emergence introduced crowd-targeting operations yielding dozens of deaths per incident, exemplified by coordinated bombings killing over 100 in single events. Post-2021 Taliban governance correlated with a sharp decline in overall frequency, as the regime suppressed rival factions including the Taliban itself transitioning from insurgent to governing force, though ISIS-K persisted with sporadic but highly lethal strikes—such as the August 26, 2021, Kabul airport bombing claiming 182 lives—reflecting reduced operational capacity but retained intent for mass-casualty spectacles.^[8][5][6] This post-takeover reduction in attacks, reported as an "overall reduction of terrorism-based attacks" by 2023, stems from Taliban counterterrorism measures against ISIS-K, including arrests and operations, despite incomplete eradication; lethality per remaining attack remains elevated due to ISIS-K's focus on soft targets like mosques and schools, contrasting earlier eras' more dispersed insurgency tactics. National data indicate terrorism deaths in Afghanistan dropped 9% post-2021, attributable to the Taliban's de facto monopoly on violence, though Kabul's status as a symbolic target sustains vulnerability to outlier high-impact events.^[5][3]

Attacks by Period

Pre-2001: Civil War and Taliban Rise

During the Afghan Civil War following the mujahideen victory over the Soviet-backed government in April 1992, Kabul became a focal point of intense inter-factional fighting among rival groups, including Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-e Islami, Abdul Ali Mazari's Hezb-e Wahdat, and Abdul Rasul Sayyaf's Ittihad-e Islami. These factions employed indiscriminate rocket and artillery barrages against populated areas, resulting in tens of thousands of civilian deaths and widespread destruction, tactics that terrorized the population to coerce political concessions and weaken opponents. Human Rights Watch documented these as systematic violations, with residential neighborhoods, schools, and hospitals repeatedly struck, exacerbating famine and displacement.^[9] Such attacks blurred lines between conventional warfare and terrorism, as they deliberately targeted or disregarded civilian concentrations to instill fear and force capitulation.^[33] Key incidents included:

• May 29, 1992: Hezb-e Islami forces, allied with remnants of the prior regime, launched rockets at Kabul International Airport, damaging President Sibghatullah Mojaddedi's plane during takeoff; no fatalities reported, but the attack aimed to disrupt the new government's operations.^[9]
• Early June 1992: Hekmatyar's Hezb-e Islami initiated sustained shelling and rocketing of central Kabul from southern positions, striking civilian districts indiscriminately and causing unquantified but significant casualties amid the city's chaos.^[9]
• June 5, 1992: Clashes between Ittihad-e Islami and Hezb-e Wahdat involved mutual rocket and mortar fire across Kabul, killing at least 20 civilians and injuring 100, while destroying shops, schools, and homes; a family of six perished in a northern neighborhood strike.^[9]
• August 1992: Hezb-e Islami escalated with a major offensive, bombarding Kabul over weeks and killing 1,800 to 2,500 people, mostly civilians, with thousands more wounded and infrastructure like water systems and markets devastated.^[9]
• January 19–February 12, 1993: Coordinated rocketing by Hezb-e Islami and Hezb-e Wahdat forces targeted the city, contributing to approximately 5,000 total deaths (including combatants) and 3,500–4,000 injuries in the period, with civilians bearing the brunt in residential zones.^[9]
• February 11, 1993: Jamiat-e Islami forces fired rockets from elevated positions into fleeing civilians on Kabul streets during the Afshar offensive, confirmed to kill 17 non-combatants, including women and children in burqas.^[9]

The Taliban's emergence in 1994 initially focused on southern provinces, but by 1995–1996, their advances pressured northern holdouts, culminating in the uncontested capture of Kabul on September 27, 1996, after the Rabbani-Massoud government evacuated amid internal collapse. Prior Taliban operations near Kabul involved limited shelling of outlying areas, but the group's pre-takeover violence emphasized rapid conquest over sustained urban terrorism, contrasting the mujahideen factions' protracted barrages. Overall civilian toll from 1992–1996 fighting in Kabul exceeded 25,000 deaths, per contemporaneous estimates, setting the stage for Taliban consolidation by promising an end to anarchy.^[34]

2001–2014: Post-Invasion Insurgency

The period following the U.S.-led invasion in October 2001 saw initial security improvements in Kabul after the Taliban's ouster, but by 2003, remnants of the Taliban and affiliated groups like the Haqqani network escalated an insurgency using terrorist tactics to target international forces, the Afghan government, and civilians. These attacks, often suicide bombings or IEDs, aimed to destabilize the capital and deter foreign involvement, with frequency rising from isolated incidents to dozens annually by 2014 amid Taliban claims of fighting occupation. Perpetrators drew ideological motivation from Islamist extremism, viewing the post-invasion government as illegitimate and coalition presence as infidel aggression.^[35] Key terrorist attacks in Kabul during this era included:

• January 27, 2004: A suicide bomber detonated explosives against an International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) vehicle, killing one Canadian soldier and one Afghan civilian while wounding three Canadian troops and eight civilians. The attack was linked to Taliban insurgents.^[36]
• January 30, 2004: Another suicide bomber in a taxi targeted an ISAF vehicle near a military base, killing one British soldier and wounding four others. Taliban elements were implicated.^[36]
• October 23, 2004: A bomber disguised as a beggar attacked ISAF soldiers on a street, killing one Afghan girl and wounding three soldiers.^[36]
• May 7, 2005: A suicide bomber struck an internet cafe at a guesthouse, killing one UN engineer and one Afghan national while injuring five others.^[36]
• June 1, 2005: During a funeral at a mosque entrance, a bomber in police uniform detonated, killing 19 people including Kabul's police chief and injuring 52.^[36]
• January 14, 2008: Taliban militants launched a coordinated assault on the Serena Hotel using guns and suicide vests, killing eight including a U.S. national and Norwegian journalists while wounding 18.^[37]
• July 7, 2008: A suicide truck bomb rammed the Indian Embassy gates, killing at least 41 people including embassy staff and wounding over 140 in one of the deadliest attacks on a diplomatic site. The Haqqani network, a Taliban ally, was later identified as responsible by intelligence assessments.^[38][39]
• June 28, 2011: Nine Taliban fighters, including suicide bombers, stormed the Intercontinental Hotel in a prolonged siege, killing 21 including nine attackers, one Italian national, and Afghan civilians while wounding others; Afghan and NATO forces ended the assault after five hours. The Taliban claimed responsibility to demonstrate operational reach in the capital.^[40]

These incidents reflected tactical evolution toward complex, high-casualty operations, contributing to over 1,000 terrorism-related deaths in Kabul by 2014 according to incident databases, though exact tallies vary due to underreporting in conflict zones.^[41] The attacks strained Afghan security capabilities and fueled public fear, despite coalition counterterrorism efforts.

2015–2021: Escalation and Withdrawal Era

The 2015–2021 period witnessed a marked intensification of terrorist violence in Kabul, driven by Taliban offensives to pressure the Afghan government amid faltering peace negotiations and the U.S.-led drawdown of forces, alongside the emergence of ISIS-K as a rival jihadist faction conducting sectarian-targeted strikes against Shia Hazara communities and Western interests. Casualty figures from attacks rose sharply, with over 1,000 deaths attributed to bombings and shootings in the capital alone, reflecting tactical shifts toward vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) and suicide operations in densely populated areas. Taliban operations focused on military and governmental symbols to demonstrate control, while ISIS-K emphasized spectacle attacks to recruit and challenge Taliban authority, often claiming responsibility via Amaq News Agency.^[4][25] Key incidents underscored this escalation:

• 31 May 2017: A Taliban-claimed truck bomb detonated in the diplomatic quarter (Wazir Akbar Khan), killing at least 150 civilians and security personnel while injuring 413 others in one of Kabul's deadliest strikes, aimed at undermining government stability.
• 24 January 2018: Taliban militants used an ambulance packed with explosives to bomb a police checkpoint in central Kabul, resulting in 103 deaths and 235 injuries, primarily among protesters gathered for a demonstration.
• 8 February 2018: ISIS-K suicide bomber targeted an office of the Kabul Bank in the PD7 district, killing 22 and wounding 54 in an attack on financial infrastructure.
• 17 August 2018: ISIS-K detonated a bomb at a protest rally in the Dasht-e-Barchi area, killing 68 and injuring 165, exploiting civil unrest to hit Shia demonstrators.
• 28 January 2019: An explosives-laden vehicle struck a military convoy near Kabul International Airport, killing 4 soldiers and wounding 33, claimed by the Taliban.
• 17 August 2019: ISIS-K suicide bombing at a wedding hall in western Kabul killed 80 and injured 360, mostly civilians attending the event, highlighting sectarian motives against Shia gatherings.
• 6 March 2020: ISIS-K gunmen and a suicide bomber assaulted a Sikh temple (Gurdwara) in Kabul, killing 25 worshippers and freeing prisoners during the siege.^[42]
• 5 October 2020: ISIS-K bombing at an education center in Dasht-e-Barchi killed 24 young men preparing for medical exams, mostly Hazaras, with over 100 wounded.
• 8 May 2021: ISIS-K truck bomb near a girls' school in western Kabul killed 90, including many students, and injured 240, targeting educational aspirations in a Shia area.
• 26 August 2021: Amid the chaotic U.S. withdrawal and Taliban advance on Kabul, ISIS-K suicide bomber struck crowds at Hamid Karzai International Airport's Abbey Gate, killing 13 U.S. service members, 169 Afghans, and injuring dozens more.^[18]

These attacks, often in Shia enclaves or near evacuation points, exploited governance vacuums and reduced coalition air support, contributing to the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces' collapse by mid-2021. ISIS-K's operations, though smaller in scale than Taliban efforts, gained notoriety for brutality and anti-Shia ideology, drawing from global ISIS networks despite territorial losses in eastern Afghanistan.^[25]

2021–Present: Under Taliban Governance

Following the Taliban's capture of Kabul on August 15, 2021, terrorist attacks in the city have been predominantly perpetrated by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), a rival Salafi-jihadist group that views the Taliban as apostates for their negotiated takeover and insufficient ideological purity. ISIS-K has focused on mass-casualty suicide bombings targeting Shia Muslim Hazaras—deemed heretics by the group—educational sites associated with minority communities, public transport, and occasionally Taliban personnel, aiming to undermine Taliban legitimacy and incite sectarian violence. The Taliban has responded with counteroperations, including raids and executions of suspected ISIS-K operatives, which U.S. assessments indicate have constrained the group's operational tempo in urban areas like Kabul compared to rural eastern Afghanistan, though ISIS-K retains capacity for spectacular attacks and has expanded transnational plotting.^[1][5][43] Notable attacks include: These incidents reflect ISIS-K's tactical emphasis on vehicle-borne or body-borne improvised explosive devices in soft targets, with claims of responsibility often disseminated via the group's Amaq News Agency to contrast their attacks with Taliban restraint toward civilians. While overall ISIS-K activity in Afghanistan surged post-2021 before facing Taliban suppression—evidenced by reduced mass-casualty events in Kabul by 2023-2025—the group's ideological opposition ensures persistent low-level threats, including assassinations and minor blasts against Shia sites. No other groups, such as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, have claimed significant operations in Kabul during this period, underscoring ISIS-K's dominance in urban terrorism under Taliban rule.^[1][46][2]

Overall Impact

Cumulative Casualties and Economic Costs

Terrorist attacks in Kabul have inflicted thousands of civilian casualties since the post-2001 insurgency, with suicide bombings, vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, and targeted shootings predominating. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recorded 1,686 civilian casualties (481 killed, 1,205 injured) from anti-government suicide and complex attacks in Kabul province during 2018, accounting for nearly half of national incidents of this type that year.^[47] Nationwide UNAMA data from 2009 to mid-2021 tallied 55,041 civilian casualties from armed conflict, a substantial share attributable to Kabul as the insurgents' focal point for high-impact operations against government and civilian targets.^[48] Post-2021 Taliban governance reduced overall conflict-related casualties, yet ISIS-Khorasan persisted with assaults like the August 26, 2021, Kabul airport suicide bombing, which killed 183 (including 13 U.S. service members and approximately 170 Afghans) and injured over 200.^[49] By September 2024, ISIS-K claimed a bombing killing six in Kabul.^[23] Economic repercussions include direct infrastructure destruction, elevated security expenditures, healthcare burdens, and forgone productivity in Kabul, the nation's commercial nexus. Precise tallies for terrorism-specific costs remain unaggregated, but conflict dynamics encompassing such attacks have skewed economic output toward low-value informal activities, stifling formal sector growth and foreign investment.^[50] Recurrent disruptions from bombings have compounded these effects, exacerbating unemployment and capital flight in the capital.^[51]

Effects on Afghan Society and Governance

Terrorist attacks in Kabul have inflicted deep psychological trauma on Afghan society, with survivors and communities experiencing elevated rates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and collective grief, particularly following targeted strikes on civilians such as the 2021 Sayed al-Shuhada school bombing affecting Hazara adolescent girls.^[52] These incidents have disrupted daily life, reducing public gatherings, education access, and social cohesion, as families avoid vulnerable areas like markets and schools to evade further bombings.^[51] High civilian death tolls, including over 150 killed in the June 2017 truck bombing near diplomatic sites, have amplified fear and prompted protests demanding better protection for minorities.^[53] Socioeconomic effects compound these issues, with attacks destroying infrastructure and contributing to internal displacement, as residents flee Kabul's insecurity toward rural areas or emigrate abroad, exacerbating brain drain and family separations documented in refugee mental health studies post-2021 airport chaos.^[54] Economic stagnation from repeated disruptions has hindered societal resilience, limiting investment and perpetuating poverty cycles amid ongoing violence.^[51] In terms of governance, pre-2021 attacks exposed the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces' (ANDSF) failures to secure the capital, eroding public trust as shown in surveys following the 2012 Taliban assault on civilians, where perceptions of government incompetence intensified.^[55] This vulnerability fueled insurgent momentum and accelerated the 2021 collapse, with bombings like the May 2017 incident underscoring institutional weaknesses.^[56] Post-2021, under Taliban control, ISIS-K bombings in Kabul, such as the August 2021 airport attack killing 170 Afghans, have challenged the regime's authority, revealing persistent internal divisions and incomplete counterterrorism control despite operations against the group.^[57] Continued strikes highlight governance deficits in providing basic security, fostering doubts about the Taliban's ability to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a terrorist haven again.^[20][12]

Counterterrorism Responses

Pre-2021 Afghan and Coalition Efforts

The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), authorized by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1386 on December 20, 2001, initially focused on securing Kabul following the Taliban's ouster, with coalition troops from the United States, United Kingdom, and others establishing patrols, checkpoints, and joint operations with nascent Afghan security units to disrupt insurgent infiltration and planning.^[58] ISAF's mandate expanded progressively, reaching nationwide coverage by October 2006 under Resolution 1721, enabling sustained counterinsurgency efforts in the capital that included intelligence-driven raids targeting Taliban and Haqqani network facilitators responsible for urban bombings and assassinations.^[59] From 2015, the Resolute Support Mission (RSM) shifted to a non-combat advisory role, training and equipping Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF)—comprising the Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP)—to independently counter terrorist threats in Kabul, with emphasis on urban security tactics such as fortified perimeters around government districts and rapid response units.^[60] Concurrently, U.S. forces under Operation Freedom's Sentinel conducted bilateral counterterrorism operations partnering with ANDSF, focusing on high-value targets affiliated with al-Qaeda, the Haqqani network, and emerging ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) cells plotting attacks in Kabul, including precision strikes and arrests that neutralized dozens of operatives between 2015 and 2020.^[61] Efforts emphasized intelligence fusion centers in Kabul, where coalition and Afghan analysts shared real-time data to preempt vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attacks and suicide operations, often linked to Haqqani logistics from Pakistan-based sanctuaries.^[60] Joint task forces, such as those under the Combined Joint Task Force-82, executed operations yielding the elimination of key Haqqani figures involved in Kabul plotting, though ANDSF capabilities were hampered by issues including equipment shortages and personnel attrition rates exceeding 20% annually in some units.^[58] Despite these measures, terrorist incidents persisted, with over 100 attacks in Kabul from 2015 to 2020 attributed to Taliban affiliates and ISIS-K, underscoring limitations in sealing porous borders and rooting out insider threats within ANDSF ranks.^[61] Coalition assessments noted that while tactical successes degraded attack networks—such as the 2017 raid disrupting an ISIS-K bomb-making cell—strategic gains were uneven due to insurgent adaptability and safe havens beyond Afghan control.^[60]

Post-2021 Taliban and Regional Dynamics

Following the Taliban's recapture of Kabul on August 15, 2021, the group assumed sole responsibility for internal security and counterterrorism, shifting focus to combating the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), its primary ideological rival responsible for most subsequent attacks in the capital. The Taliban has prioritized disrupting ISKP networks through raids, arrests, and targeted killings, conducting at least 36 such operations against the group in the initial years of rule, often in urban areas including Kabul where ISKP maintains sleeper cells.^[62] These efforts intensified from February 2023 onward, resulting in the neutralization of several mid-level commanders and the disruption of propaganda and recruitment activities, though ISKP's decentralized structure and use of encrypted communications have limited overall efficacy.^[63] ![Hazara women protest terrorist attack on students after Kabul bombing.jpg][center] ISKP has continued to exploit Kabul as a high-profile target, launching attacks such as the September 2, 2024, suicide bombing outside the Taliban's General Directorate of Intelligence, which killed one official and wounded 22 others, framed by ISKP as vengeance for prisoner detentions.^[23] Taliban responses typically involve immediate cordons, forensic investigations, and follow-up raids, with claims of capturing perpetrators, but independent verification remains scarce due to restricted media access and the regime's opacity. The group's counterterrorism doctrine emphasizes ideological purification, viewing ISKP as apostates for rejecting Taliban governance, yet operational constraints—including inadequate intelligence-sharing and reliance on former adversaries for expertise—have allowed ISKP to sustain low-level violence, including against Shia minorities to undermine Taliban authority.^[64] Regional dynamics have shaped these efforts, as ISKP draws recruits and logistics from cross-border flows involving Pakistan's Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) defectors and operates in ways that threaten neighbors, prompting indirect pressure on the Taliban. Pakistan has accused Afghan territory of harboring ISKP planners behind attacks like the January 2023 Peshawar mosque bombing, leading to heightened border skirmishes and Taliban assurances of containment, though mutual suspicions persist over each side's militant sanctuaries.^[65] Iran and Central Asian states, facing ISKP-inspired plots—including the January 2024 Kerman bombings in Iran—have engaged the Taliban in security dialogues, offering economic incentives for stricter border controls, but the regime's insular approach limits formal cooperation.^[64][66] The Taliban has reiterated Doha Agreement pledges to deny safe haven to external threats, engaging the United States in sporadic talks while resisting international oversight, yet U.S. assessments highlight uneven progress, with ISKP's Afghan-based cells enabling global operations despite domestic suppression.^[5] This interplay underscores causal tensions: Taliban's resource scarcity and focus on internal consolidation enable ISKP resilience, while regional states' pragmatic recognition of Taliban rule fosters selective CT alignment without broader alliance.^[67]