An emergent virus (or emerging virus) is a virus that is either newly appeared, notably increasing in incidence/geographic range or has the potential to increase in the near future. Emergent viruses are a leading cause of emerging infectious diseases and raise public health challenges globally, given their potential to cause outbreaks of disease which can lead to epidemics and pandemics. As well as causing disease, emergent viruses can also have severe economic implications. Recent examples include the SARS-related coronaviruses, which have caused the 2002–2004 outbreak of SARS (SARS-CoV-1) and the 2019–2023 pandemic of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2). Other examples include the human immunodeficiency virus, which causes HIV/AIDS; the viruses responsible for Ebola; the H5N1 influenza virus responsible for avian influenza; and H1N1/09, which caused the 2009 swine flu pandemic (an earlier emergent strain of H1N1 caused the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic). Viral emergence in humans is often a consequence of zoonosis, which involves a cross-species jump of a viral disease into humans from other animals. As zoonotic viruses exist in animal reservoirs, they are much more difficult to eradicate and can therefore establish persistent infections in human populations.

Emergent viruses should not be confused with re-emerging viruses or newly detected viruses. A re-emerging virus is generally considered to be a previously appeared virus that is experiencing a resurgence, for example measles. A newly detected virus is a previously unrecognized virus that had been circulating in the species as endemic or epidemic infections. Newly detected viruses may have escaped classification because they left no distinctive clues and/or could not be isolated or propagated in cell culture. Examples include human rhinovirus (a leading cause of common colds which was first identified in 1956), hepatitis C (eventually identified in 1989), and human metapneumovirus (first described in 2001, but thought to have been circulating since the 19th century). As the detection of such viruses is technology driven, the number reported is likely to expand.

Given the rarity of spontaneous development of new virus species, the most frequent cause of emergent viruses in humans is zoonosis. This phenomenon is estimated to account for 73% of all emerging or re-emerging pathogens, with viruses playing a disproportionately large role. RNA viruses are particularly frequent, accounting for 37% of emerging and re-emerging pathogens. A broad range of animals — including wild birds, rodents, and bats — are associated with zoonotic viruses. It is not possible to predict specific zoonotic events that may be associated with a particular animal reservoir at any given time.

Zoonotic spillover can either result in self-limited 'dead-end' infections, in which no further human-to-human transmission occurs (as with the rabies virus), or in infectious cases, in which the zoonotic pathogen is able to sustain human-to-human transmission (as with the Ebola virus). If the zoonotic virus is able to maintain successful human-to-human transmission, an outbreak may occur. Some spillover events can also result in the virus adapting exclusively for human infection (as occurred with the HIV virus), in which case humans become a new reservoir for the pathogen.

A successful zoonotic 'jump' depends on human contact with an animal harboring a virus variant that is able to infect humans. In order to overcome host-range restrictions and sustain efficient human-to-human transmission, viruses originating from an animal reservoir will normally undergo mutation, genetic recombination, and reassortment. Due to their rapid replication and high mutation rates, RNA viruses are more likely to successfully adapt for invasion of a new host population.

While bats are essential members of many ecosystems, they are also frequently implicated as frequent sources of emerging virus infections. Their immune systems have evolved in such a way as to suppress any inflammatory response to viral infections, thereby allowing them to become tolerant hosts for evolving viruses, and consequently provide major reservoirs of zoonotic viruses. They are associated with more zoonotic viruses per host species than any other mammal, and molecular studies have demonstrated that they are the natural hosts for several high-profile zoonotic viruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome–related coronaviruses and Ebola/Marburg hemorrhagic fever filoviruses. In terms of their potential for spillover events, bats have taken over the leading role previously assigned to rodents. Viruses can be transmitted from bats via several mechanisms, including bites, aerosolization of saliva (e.g., during echolocation), and feces/urine.

Due to their distinct ecology/behavior, bats are naturally more susceptible to viral infection and transmission. Several bat species (e.g., brown bats) aggregate in crowded roosts, which promotes intra- and interspecies viral transmission. Moreover, as bats are widespread in urban areas, humans occasionally encroach on their habitats which are contaminated with guano and urine. Their ability to fly and migration patterns also means that bats are able to spread disease over a large geographic area, while also acquiring new viruses. Additionally, bats experience persistent viral infections which, together with their extreme longevity (some bat species have lifespans of 35 years), helps to maintain viruses and transmit them to other species. Other bat characteristics which contribute to their potency as viral hosts include: their food choices, torpor/hibernation habits, and susceptibility to reinfection.

Viral emergence is often a consequence of both nature and human activity. In particular, ecological changes can greatly facilitate the emergence and re-emergence of zoonotic viruses. Factors such as deforestation, reforestation, habitat fragmentation, and irrigation can all impact the ways in which humans come into contact with wild animal species and consequently promote virus emergence. In particular, habitat loss of reservoir host species plays a significant role in emerging zoonoses. Additionally, climate change can affect ecosystems and vector distribution, which in turn can affect the emergence of vector-borne viruses. Other ecological changes — for example, species introduction and predator loss — can also affect virus emergence and prevalence. Some agricultural practices — for example, livestock intensification and inappropriate management/disposal of farm animal feces — are also associated with an increased risk of zoonosis.