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Jim O'Neill, Baron O'Neill of Gatley
Jim O'Neill, Baron O'Neill of Gatley
from Wikipedia

Terence James O'Neill, Baron O'Neill of Gatley (born 17 March 1957)[1] is a British economist best known for coining BRIC, the acronym that stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China—the four once-rapidly developing countries that he predicted would challenge the global economic power of the developed G7 economies.[2] He is also a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and former Conservative government minister.

Key Information

O'Neill was Commercial Secretary to the Treasury in the Second Cameron Ministry from May 2015 to September 2016. He chaired the UK's Independent Review into Antimicrobial Resistance from 2014 to 2016.[3] He was the chairman of the Council of Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs from 2018 to 2021.

Education

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O'Neill grew up in Gatley and attended Burnage High School for Boys, a comprehensive school.[4] He obtained a Bachelor of Arts (BA) degree in 1977 and a Master of Arts (MA) degree in economics from Sheffield University in 1978.[5][6] He earned his PhD degree in economics from the University of Surrey in 1982, with a thesis titled An empirical investigation into the OPEC surplus and its disposal. On the 16 January 2024, O’Neill was granted an honorary Doctorate of Letters by the University of Hull.

Career

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Early in his career, O'Neill worked at Bank of America and Marine Midland Bank. In 1988, he joined Swiss Bank Corporation where he became SBC's chief of global research.[7] He joined Goldman Sachs in 1997 and he was appointed as the head of global economics research in 2001.[8]

Goldman Sachs

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In 2010, he headed Goldman Sachs's Division of Asset Management where O'Neill managed over $800 billion in assets.[9] His new appointment was regarded as a symbol of Goldman's efforts to reposition itself for Wall Street's post-2008 financial crisis era,[10] one in which Goldman Sachs is "bullish" about the fact that emerging markets are "the future".[9] In 2011, he was included in the 50 Most Influential ranking of Bloomberg Markets magazine.

In 2001, O'Neill coined the term "BRIC" in "The World Needs Better Economic BRICs" in a Goldman Sachs's "Global Economic Paper" series, on the four emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.[11] Other terms he coined or adopted and popularized have been the "Next Eleven" (or N-11) for Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam, arguing they would be among the world's largest economies in the 21st century.[12][13] In 2011, O'Neill stated that he preferred the term "growth markets" over "emerging markets" and spotlighted Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey in addition to the BRIC markets, which the media dubbed "MIST" and, collectively, the "Growth-8". In November 2013, he adopted and popularized MINT for Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, which had been coined by Fidelity International in May 2011.[14][15][16] O'Neill retired from the firm in 2013.[17][18]

Other

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O'Neill at a briefing for Heads of Missions on the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance on May 19, 2016

He was a founding board member of Bruegel.[19] On 2 July 2014, he was appointed by UK Prime Minister David Cameron to head an international commission to investigate global antimicrobial resistance.[20] In 2018, Lord O'Neill published the book Superbugs: An Arms Race Against Bacteria co-written with Anthony McDonnell and Will Hall.[21]

House of Lords

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In 2015, he was created a Life Peer as Baron O'Neill of Gatley, of Gatley in the County of Greater Manchester,[22] and took up an unpaid post in HM Government as the Commercial Secretary to the Treasury.[23][24] In this role O'Neill's primary role was to work on the Northern Powerhouse project and to help reinvigorate trade with China. Following the resignation of David Cameron as Prime Minister his successor, Theresa May, kept O'Neill in post. In 2016, O'Neill resigned over concerns that May was not committed to the Northern Powerhouse project, making him the first member of May's ministry to resign.[25]

O'Neill sat in the House of Lords as a Conservative life peer from 28 May 2015 to 23 September 2016. After leaving the Conservatives, he then sat as a non-affiliated member of the House of Lords 23 September 2016 to 9 October 2017, and he has sat as a member of the crossbenchers since 9 October 2017.[26]

Personal life

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O'Neill is an enthusiastic football fan and played for the Bank of America's first team in London. He is a lifelong follower of Manchester United F.C. and served as a non-executive director from 2004 to 2005, before the club was returned to private ownership.[27] On 2 March 2010, the Red Knights, a group of wealthy Manchester United fans believed to include O'Neill, confirmed interest in a possible takeover of the club.[28]

In 2014, O'Neill was awarded an Honorary Litt.D. degree by the University of Sheffield.[29] He has honorary degrees from the Institute of Education of the University of London and from City University London.[5]

References

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Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia
from Grokipedia
Terence James O'Neill, Baron O'Neill of Gatley (born March 1957), is a British economist and crossbench in the . O'Neill is best known for coining the term "" in a 2001 Goldman Sachs research paper, identifying , , , and as major emerging economies poised to drive global growth. During his tenure at from 1995 to 2013, where he served as chairman of and head of global economics research, O'Neill advanced analyses of macroeconomic trends and investment strategies. Appointed Commercial Secretary to the in 2015, he focused on , , and economic policy until resigning in 2016 amid reported disagreements over strategy. O'Neill chaired the independent Review on from 2014 to 2016, projecting up to 10 million annual deaths from drug-resistant infections by 2050 without intervention and recommending incentives for new development. His contributions extend to international affairs as former chairman of the Royal Institute of International Affairs () until 2021, emphasizing on global economic shifts and health threats.

Early Life and Education

Family and Upbringing

Terence James O'Neill was born on 17 March 1957 at St. Mary’s Hospital in . His father worked as a postman in central , originating from a family of Irish descent, and had left school at age 14 before emphasizing higher education for his children. His mother came from a farming family in , providing a contrasting rural background to his father's urban working-class roots. O'Neill grew up with three sisters in a household where financial circumstances were modest, and his father's determination ensured all four siblings pursued university education. The family resided on Styles Road in Gatley, South Manchester, a location divided between the more affluent side and the less prosperous council estate area. O'Neill attended primary and junior schools in the tough Crossacres neighborhood of , where he faced daily bullying as a perceived "Gatley snob" from peers in the estate, prompting him to integrate by playing football with local children. This environment exposed him to stark social contrasts, fostering early awareness of class divides and the value of education amid working-class challenges.

Academic Background

O'Neill obtained and Master of Arts degrees in from the in 1978. He subsequently earned a PhD in from the in 1982. In recognition of his contributions to and , O'Neill has received several honorary degrees, including a from the Institute of , , in 2009; honorary degrees from the and the ; and an honorary of Science from City, University of London, for his work in global banking and finance. He serves as a visiting professor at the and an honorary professor of at the .

Financial Career

Pre-Goldman Sachs Roles

O'Neill obtained a in from the in 1978 and a PhD in from the in 1982. Following his doctorate, he began his professional career in with a brief tenure at . Subsequently, O'Neill worked at International Treasury Management, a division of Marine Midland Bank, prior to that institution's acquisition by in 1987. In 1988, he joined (SBC), where he initially led the research group. By 1991, O'Neill had advanced to head of global research at SBC, a position he held until 1995, overseeing economic and market analysis across the firm's international operations. These roles established his expertise in global economics and currency markets before transitioning to .

Goldman Sachs Contributions

Jim O'Neill joined in 1995 as a partner, co-head of Global Economics Research, and chief currency economist. From 1995 to 2000, he served as joint head of research, overseeing the firm's economic analysis teams. He then advanced to from 2001 to 2010, during which he directed global economic forecasting and strategy development. In 2008, O'Neill assumed leadership of Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research, expanding the firm's focus on commodity markets and macroeconomic trends. In these roles, O'Neill's research emphasized the shifting dynamics of global growth, particularly in emerging economies, influencing ' investment recommendations and client advisory services. His analyses, disseminated through firm reports and publications, highlighted opportunities in high-growth regions and cycles, contributing to the firm's reputation in macroeconomic strategy. Appointed chairman of Asset Management in September 2010, O'Neill led the division's strategic direction from , reporting to senior executives Ed Forst and Tim O’Neill. He prioritized innovative client strategies, integration of global economic insights into portfolio management, and continued production of market outlooks to guide decisions. O'Neill departed in April 2013 after 18 years, having shaped its economic research and frameworks.

Intellectual Contributions to Economics

Development of the BRICS Concept

In late 2001, Jim O'Neill, as chairman of ' global economics team, published the report Building Better Global Economic BRICs (Global Economics Paper No. 66, dated ), which introduced the BRIC to designate the emerging economies of , , , and as key drivers of future global growth. The concept emerged from O'Neill's analysis of long-term GDP projections, emphasizing these nations' large populations, demographic advantages, resource endowments, and policy reforms that positioned them to outpace developed economies; for instance, the report forecasted that BRIC countries could generate 44.3% of global GDP increments between 2000 and 2050 under baseline scenarios, potentially surpassing the combined size of the then-G6 economies (, , , , , ) by the latter date. O'Neill developed the BRIC framework to counterbalance prevailing Western-centric economic models, arguing that global equity markets undervalued these markets' contributions—projecting, for example, that China's economy alone could expand from 12% to 26% of global GDP by 2050, while India's might reach 14%—and advocating for "better" integration of into international institutions to foster balanced growth. The acronym was deliberately crafted for simplicity and impact, grouping countries not by political alignment but by shared economic potential: Brazil's commodities and land resources, Russia's energy and , India's demographics and services sector, and China's manufacturing scale. This analytical construct, rooted in econometric modeling rather than geopolitical intent, quickly influenced investment strategies, with launching BRIC-focused funds shortly thereafter. The BRIC concept evolved into following South Africa's formal inclusion in December 2010, expanding the grouping to five nations amid their leaders' inaugural summit in ; however, O'Neill's original formulation remained an tool, distinct from the subsequent political forum, which he later critiqued for lacking substantive coordination on growth reforms. By 2021, marking the concept's 20th anniversary, O'Neill reaffirmed its prescience in highlighting multipolar dynamics but noted variances in performance, such as China's outperformance against India's underachievement relative to projections.

Key Economic Analyses and Predictions

O'Neill extended his analysis of potential beyond the framework by identifying the "Next Eleven" (N11) economies—, , , , , , , the Philippines, , , and —as likely contributors to over half of global GDP growth by 2050, based on demographic advantages, trends, and reforms enabling sustained expansion rates of 5-6% annually. This projection, detailed in his 2011 book The Growth Map, emphasized causal drivers such as outpacing developed nations and increasing integration into global supply chains, contrasting with slower gains in mature economies. In 2014, O'Neill coined the "MINT" acronym for , , , and , forecasting these nations could achieve average annual growth exceeding 4.5% through the if they addressed structural bottlenecks like infrastructure deficits and governance issues, positioning them as bridges between and advanced economies in trade and investment flows. He argued that their resource endowments and young workforces would drive commodity demand and manufacturing shifts, though outcomes varied: and met or exceeded expectations with reforms, while and faced setbacks from political instability and , underscoring the role of institutional quality in realizing potential. More recently, O'Neill predicted in March 2025 that U.S. equity markets would underperform the rest of the world through the decade's end, citing overvaluation relative to earnings growth and anticipated fiscal tightening, while could rebound via energy price stabilization and via stimulus-induced recovery targeting 5% GDP growth. In a concurrent analysis, he assessed Trump administration policies as likely to accelerate de-globalization but insufficient to derail broader convergence, with emerging Asia—led by —poised to offset disruptions through domestic demand and diversification, provided productivity in developed economies rises via rather than . O'Neill has critiqued mainstream for underestimating such shifts, as seen in 2023 when persistent and 's property woes defied calls, reinforcing his emphasis on policy responsiveness over consensus models.

Policy and Advisory Roles

Antimicrobial Resistance Review

In July 2014, Prime Minister commissioned the Review on (AMR), tasking economist Jim O'Neill with leading an independent analysis of the global threat posed by drug-resistant infections and recommending actionable strategies to mitigate it. The initiative, co-sponsored by the government and the , aimed to quantify AMR's economic and health impacts while fostering international consensus on solutions, reflecting concerns over declining effectiveness due to overuse in humans and . O'Neill, drawing on his expertise in global economics rather than medical backgrounds, assembled a multidisciplinary team to produce a series of seven interim papers between 2014 and 2016, culminating in the final report, Tackling Drug-Resistant Infections Globally: Final Report and Recommendations, published on 19 May 2016. The review projected that, absent major interventions, AMR could cause 10 million deaths annually by 2050, surpassing fatalities from cancer, with associated global economic losses reaching $100 trillion by the same year due to reduced productivity and healthcare costs. These estimates were derived from modeling infection trends, resistance patterns, and macroeconomic data across regions, emphasizing AMR's disproportionate burden on low- and middle-income countries. The report outlined 10 core recommendations to address market failures in antibiotic development and misuse. These included establishing global incentives, such as a $40 billion fund over 10 years, to stimulate R&D for new antimicrobials through transferable exclusivity vouchers or subscription-style payment models that reward innovation without tying revenue to sales volume. It advocated reducing unnecessary prescriptions via rapid point-of-care diagnostics to ensure antibiotics are used only when bacterial infections are confirmed, potentially cutting human overuse by 20-30% and agricultural use by up to 80% in high-consumption countries without harming productivity. Additional measures focused on enhancing surveillance through a global database tracking resistance data, improving national action plans with penalties for poor stewardship, and promoting alternatives like vaccines and phage therapies. The government responded positively in September 2016, committing £400 million over four years to domestic AMR efforts, including diagnostics and surveillance, while endorsing international collaboration via the UN and G20. O'Neill's economic framing highlighted AMR as a " for and ," influencing subsequent global commitments, such as the 2016 UN High-Level Meeting on AMR, though has varied, with critiques noting persistent underfunding in new drug pipelines despite the review's urgency. The review's emphasis on incentives over has been credited with shifting policy discourse toward sustainable markets, evidenced by initiatives like the 's subscription model pilots and CARB-X funding partnerships.

UK Government Positions

O'Neill served as Commercial Secretary to the from 28 May 2015 to 23 September 2016. Appointed by Chancellor following his creation as a , Baron O'Neill of Gatley, on 19 May 2015, the role involved oversight of the agenda, city deals, and related economic growth initiatives aimed at rebalancing the economy beyond . His tenure ended with a resignation on 23 September 2016, approved by Queen Elizabeth II, amid reported policy disagreements with Prime Minister Theresa May's administration, including on investment ties with ; O'Neill simultaneously relinquished the Conservative whip to become an independent in the . Earlier, from September 2013, O'Neill held a position at the , providing strategic advice on departmental operations.

International and Think Tank Involvement

O'Neill served as chairman of the council at , the Royal Institute of International Affairs, from April 2018 to July 2021, succeeding in the role at the London-based think tank focused on global affairs and . During his tenure, he emphasized the importance of international cooperation amid geopolitical shifts, as evidenced by his 2020 interviews highlighting adaptable forms of beyond traditional structures. , founded in 1920, operates independently with a global network, and O'Neill's leadership aligned with its mission to inform policy through evidence-based research on issues like and security. As a visiting research fellow at Bruegel, the Brussels-based specializing in and EU policy, O'Neill contributed insights drawn from his global economic expertise, with affiliations noted in official profiles through at least 2022. Bruegel, established in 2005, emphasizes rigorous, non-partisan analysis of macroeconomic trends and trade, where O'Neill's involvement included advisory perspectives on topics such as emerging markets and fiscal strategies, consistent with his prior work at institutions like . O'Neill also holds a position on the advisory board of the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong, supporting research on Asia's role in the global economy and fostering cross-regional dialogues on development and innovation. This role underscores his engagement with Asia-Pacific economic dynamics, building on his early analyses of high-growth economies in the region. These think tank affiliations reflect O'Neill's post-government focus on influencing international economic discourse through independent research bodies rather than formal governmental or multilateral organizational posts.

Political Views and Controversies

Positions on Brexit and UK Economy

O'Neill supported the Remain campaign in the 2016 membership referendum, viewing continued EU membership as beneficial for the 's and global position. Following the vote to leave, he criticized the government's strategy as lacking realism, describing it in January 2018 as imposing a "weird" self-inflicted constraint on the and labeling Brexiteer advocates as "emotional nutcases" for underestimating the challenges of departure. He further slammed the post- approach as a "fantasy," arguing in early 2018 that threats to key sectors like automotive and pharmaceuticals persisted under plans to exit the without adequate mitigation. Despite these reservations, O'Neill maintained that Brexit's economic impact was overstated relative to deeper structural issues, stating in January 2020 that it ranked "nowhere near" the top priority for the compared to stagnation and regional disparities. In a December 2022 analysis, he attributed much of the 's post-referendum economic underperformance—including subdued growth and fiscal pressures—to political paralysis from the decision itself, rather than the exit alone, while forecasting potential recovery through supply-side reforms amid global tailwinds. He highlighted Conservative Party divisions as a key impediment to effective , telling the in September 2017 that internal splits had delayed progress and clarity. On the broader economy, O'Neill emphasized addressing chronic challenges and north-south imbalances over Brexit fixation, advocating during his tenure as Commercial Secretary to the (2015–2016) for initiatives like the to boost regional growth through infrastructure and . Post-government, he continued to prioritize these themes, arguing in interviews that enhancing —via skills investment and —remained the paramount economic imperative, with serving more as a distraction than a root cause of malaise. In a 2023 assessment, he noted the British economy's resilience seven years after the but urged focus on structural reforms to counter persistent regional divides exacerbated by uneven post- adjustments.

Critiques of BRICS Outcomes and Responses

O'Neill has critiqued the grouping for failing to evolve into a substantive economic force, despite initial growth trajectories that partially validated his predictions. In reflecting on two decades since coining the term, he described the bloc's post-2010 performance as a "disappointment," noting that while , , , and collectively expanded GDP significantly in the early years—surpassing expectations by 2016—the group has since prioritized declarative summits over tangible reforms, achieving "very little" in coordinated policy or infrastructure outcomes. This shortfall stems, in his view, from internal divergences, such as Russia's geopolitical isolation post-2014 and 's commodity-dependent volatility, which undermined the projected 2050 overtake of economies. A core element of O'Neill's critique targets the New Development Bank (NDB), established in 2014 as a purported alternative to Western-led institutions like the World Bank. He has highlighted its inefficacy, with the NDB disbursing under $30 billion in loans by 2023—far below comparable institutions—and failing to foster innovative financing or resolve member-specific bottlenecks, rendering it symbolic rather than operational. O'Neill attributes this to the absence of shared incentives, exacerbated by China's dominance in lending decisions, which alienates partners like . In response to BRICS expansions—adding , , , , and the UAE in —O'Neill dismissed the moves as diluting cohesion without enhancing economic leverage, arguing the enlarged bloc remains "rudderless" and confined to anti-Western posturing, such as futile dedollarization efforts that ignore members' reliance on U.S. dollar stability for trade and reserves. He has emphasized that his original concept was analytical and investment-oriented, not a blueprint for a political alliance, and urged a refocus on bilateral economic ties over multilateral symbolism to revive potential. This stance aligns with his broader observation that emerging markets' promise endures individually—particularly India's resilience—but the framework has devolved into geopolitical theater amid stalled collective growth averaging below 4% annually since 2015.

Reception of Policy Recommendations

O'Neill's Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, published in 2016, received broad acclaim for its economic framing of the crisis, estimating up to 10 million annual deaths by 2050 without intervention and proposing market incentives like transferable exclusivity extensions to spur antibiotic development. The UK government endorsed the report's core recommendations, committing to lead on global surveillance, reduced agricultural antibiotic use, and R&D incentives, which informed the UK's 2019 5-year National Action Plan for AMR. Internationally, it influenced UN and WHO efforts, including a 2017 high-level meeting and G20 commitments to stewardship and innovation. However, implementation has been partial, with challenges in new drugs and global coordination persisting despite recognized in diagnostics and campaigns. Advocacy groups like critiqued the emphasis on intellectual property extensions, arguing they risk inflating prices and benefiting large pharmaceutical firms at the expense of equitable access in low-income countries, though the report included safeguards like tiered pricing. Independent assessments, such as Chatham House's 2019 review, noted uneven adoption of the 10 key steps, including hygiene improvements and infection prevention, attributing delays to political and economic barriers rather than flaws in the proposals themselves. In his UK Treasury role from 2015 to 2016, O'Neill advocated increased borrowing, regional via the , and openness to Chinese investment to boost productivity. These faced resistance under , contributing to his September 2016 resignation amid disputes over scaling back the , blocking nuclear financing with Chinese capital, and a cooler stance on China trade. The departure underscored tensions between O'Neill's growth-oriented recommendations and May's inward-focused industrial strategy, with observers noting it exemplified business leaders' frustration with post-Brexit policy shifts prioritizing security over economic expansion. Subsequent UK , including rigid borrowing rules, has diverged from his calls for investment-led recovery, though elements like gained traction in later policy debates.

Personal Life and Legacy

Family and Personal Interests

O'Neill is married and has two children. His father originated from an inner-city family of Irish descent, while his mother came from a farming background in . A lifelong supporter of United, O'Neill participated in the 2010 "Red Knights" consortium, a group of local business figures aiming to purchase the club from the Glazer family ownership amid fan discontent over debt levels.

Ongoing Influence and Recent Activities

O'Neill chairs Northern Gritstone, a deep-tech firm established to commercialize spinouts from universities in , including the , , and . Under his leadership, the firm announced a £4 million seed in August 2025 to support a spinout developing innovative technologies. In May 2025, Northern Gritstone expanded its partnerships by collaborating with the to access additional research opportunities. As Chair of the Partnership since May 2023, O'Neill advocates for enhanced economic connectivity and investment in the region, drawing on his prior government experience in promoting balanced growth. This role aligns with his ongoing emphasis on addressing regional disparities through and , as evidenced in his contributions to discussions on Britain's economic divides. O'Neill remains active as a crossbench peer in the , engaging in debates on and . He holds an honorary professorship in economics at the , where he influences academic discourse on global and domestic economic challenges. In 2025, O'Neill provided commentary on financial markets, noting in an October CNBC interview that the ongoing gold price rally presented "a bit of a mystery" amid broader economic uncertainties. He also analyzed U.S. tariffs on in August, highlighting their potential macroeconomic ripple effects. His writings, including a April Project Syndicate piece, explore shifts in global economic leadership amid protectionist policies. Additionally, O'Neill has invested in early-stage ventures leveraging for applications in and , aiming for transformative outcomes.

References

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