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Mthuli Ncube
Mthuli Ncube
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Mthuli Ncube (born 30 November 1964),[1] is the Finance Minister in the Zimbabwe cabinet appointed by president Emmerson Mnangagwa[2] and past chief economist and Vice President of the African Development Bank.[3][4] He holds a PhD in Mathematical Finance from Cambridge University. On 7 September 2018, President Emmerson Mnangagwa announced Zimbabwe's new cabinet where he named Professor Mthuli Ncube as the Finance Minister.[5]

Key Information

In the 2023 Zimbabwean general election, Ncube lost the newly created seat of Cowdray Park to Pasho Raphael Sibanda from the Citizens Coalition for Change.[6][7]

Academic career

[edit]

Before joining the bank, he was dean and professor of finance at Wits Business School and then dean of the faculty of Commerce, Law and Management at the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits) as well as a lecturer in finance at the London School of Economics.

He has published a number of award-winning papers[citation needed] in the area of finance and economics as well as a number of books including, Mathematical Finance: Option and Asset Pricing;[8] South African Dictionary of Finance (editor);[9] Financial Systems and Monetary Policy in Africa;[10] Development Dynamics: Theories and Lessons from Zimbabwe;[11] and Monetary Policy and the Economy in South Africa (with Eliphas Ndou).[12]

Ncube is currently a visiting professor at the University of Oxford.[13]

Work at the African Development Bank

[edit]

Ncube was the Chief Economist and Vice President of the African Development Bank (AfDB).[13] As Chief Economist, he oversaw the Economics Complex, which is focused on the process of knowledge management within the Bank and with its partners, and general strategic economic research within the Bank. In this regard, he supervised the Development Research Department, Statistics Department and African Development Institute. As a vice president, Professor Mthuli Ncube was a member of the senior management team of the Bank and contributed to its general strategic direction.[5]

Other work

[edit]

Ncube was also a regulator and a board member of the South African Financial Services Board (FSB), which regulates non-bank financial institutions in South Africa, founding chairman of Barbican and Selwyn Capital and worked for Investec Asset Management as a Portfolio Manager and Head of Asset Allocation Strategy.[13]

Ncube has also been chairman of the Board of the African Economic Research Consortium,[14] chairman of the Global Agenda Council on "Poverty and Economic Development" (World Economic Forum) and a governor of the African Capacity Building Foundation.[15]

Finance Minister

[edit]

Ncube was appointed Finance Minister of Zimbabwe on Friday 7 September 2018 under President Emmerson Mnangagwa's government.[2][5] In 2019, he presided over the conversion from foreign currency to a new Zimbabwean currency, and the resultant return of hyper-inflation.[16][17][18] Ncube suspended publishing inflation data after June 2019,[17] and in October 2019 he indicated inflation figures for Zimbabwe would again be released in February 2020.[16]

Personal life

[edit]

Ncube is married and has four children or more.[14]

Notes and references

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[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia
from Grokipedia

Mthuli Ncube is a Zimbabwean economist and government official who has served as Minister of Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion since September 2018. He earned a PhD in Economics specializing in mathematical finance from the University of Cambridge, with a thesis on pricing options under stochastic volatility. Prior to his ministerial role, Ncube was Chief Economist and Vice President at the African Development Bank, where he directed the formulation of the institution's 10-year strategy from 2013 to 2022 and developed the Inclusive Growth Index.
Ncube's career spans academia, investment banking, and public policy; he has held positions as Dean of the Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand, where he established the Centre for Entrepreneurship, and as a lecturer in finance at the London School of Economics. In the private sector, he worked as an investment banker at Investec and founded Barbican Holdings, though the associated Barbican Bank was shuttered in 2004 by regulators for breaching banking laws, exchange control regulations, and anti-money laundering requirements. As finance minister under President Emmerson Mnangagwa, Ncube has pursued fiscal consolidation and structural reforms in an economy marked by persistent high inflation, external debt arrears, and currency instability, including the launch of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) as a structured currency backed by reserves in 2024. Despite these efforts, Zimbabwe's macroeconomic vulnerabilities remain, with growth projections for 2025 revised upward to 6.6% amid tobacco sector gains but tempered by fiscal risks. Ncube is recognized as a leading thinker on African economics, authoring books such as Africa’s Middle Class and chairing the African Economic Research Consortium.

Early Life and Education

Birth and Upbringing

Mthuli Ncube was born on 30 November 1964 in Lupane, , . He grew up in rural during the pre-independence era under Rhodesian rule and attended Fatima Primary School in the region before proceeding to Inyathi Mission High School, one of the country's oldest mission institutions, for secondary education. Ncube has described advancing through his early schooling at an accelerated pace, reflecting a focus on from a young age amid the socio-economic challenges of post-colonial transition in .

Academic Qualifications

Ncube completed his secondary education in , obtaining qualifications in , physics, and at Fletcher High School in . He earned a BSc Honours degree in economics with distinction from the University of Zimbabwe in 1985. In 1987, Ncube received an MPhil in economics from the University of Zimbabwe. Ncube pursued advanced studies at the University of Cambridge, Selwyn College, United Kingdom, where he obtained a PhD in economics specializing in mathematical finance in 1992. His doctoral thesis, titled Pricing Options under Stochastic Volatility, examined models for option pricing incorporating stochastic volatility.

Academic Career

Teaching and Research Positions

Ncube commenced his academic career as a in at the London School of Economics, following his PhD from the . In 2007, he became Director of the Wits Business School at the , advancing to Dean of the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management in 2009, while holding a professorship in . During this tenure, his research focused on , investment strategies in , and entrepreneurial development. Ncube subsequently joined the University of Oxford as Professor of Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, where he taught courses on economic development, public policy, and business in Africa. He also served as a Visiting Professor at the Saïd Business School. In these roles, his research emphasized African economic growth, infrastructure financing, and policy frameworks for emerging markets. He maintains a visiting professorship at Oxford amid his governmental duties.

Publications and Economic Theories

Mthuli Ncube has authored and co-authored several books and academic papers focusing on , , and African . His early publication, Development Dynamics: Theories and Lessons from (1991), applies economic theories to 's post-independence development, analyzing programs and their impacts on growth, with empirical lessons drawn from macroeconomic data between 1980 and 1989. Later works include Monetary Policy and the Economy in (2013, co-authored with Eliphas Ndou and Nombulelo Gumata), which examines the transmission mechanisms of shocks, including effects on output, house prices, and wealth channels using models on n data from 1960 to 2010. Ncube's contributions extend to financing and its causal links to in , as outlined in his 2010 overview , where he argues that targeted public-private partnerships could address a $93 billion annual infrastructure funding gap, supported by cross-country regressions showing a 1% GDP increase in infrastructure stock correlates with 0.5-1% higher growth rates. In The Emerging Middle Class in (2011, co-authored), he quantifies the rise of a non-poor —defined as households spending $2-20 per day—from 111 million in 1980 to 313 million by 2010, attributing this to and commodity booms while cautioning against over-reliance on resource-driven expansion without institutional reforms. On poverty reduction, Ncube's 2015 working paper models scenarios for eliminating in by 2030, projecting that sustained 5.6% annual GDP growth—2 percentage points above baseline—could reduce the rate from 40% in 2010 to 15% (221 million people) by combining gains with inflows averaging $40 billion annually. His research on , including contributions to Regional Integration and Trade in (2016, edited volume), emphasizes non-tariff barrier reductions to boost intra-n trade from 12% of total trade in 2010, using models to estimate potential welfare gains of 1-3% GDP from full Continental Free Trade Area implementation. Ncube's economic theories prioritize empirical causality over ideological prescriptions, advocating infrastructure-led growth, prudent monetary tightening to curb (as in South African case studies showing shocks reducing output by 0.5-1% initially but stabilizing long-term), and inclusive policies targeting the emerging to mitigate inequality, which his MENA-focused paper (2009) links to stagnant growth via Gini coefficients averaging 0.38 amid oil-dependent economies. These views, drawn from datasets and econometric analyses, contrast with more optimistic narratives by grounding projections in verifiable data like trends rising to 2% of Africa's GDP by 2010.

International Professional Roles

African Development Bank Leadership

Mthuli Ncube served as Chief Economist and Vice-President of the (AfDB) from February 2010 until 2018. In this role, he oversaw the Economics Complex, which encompassed economic research, statistics, and policy advisory functions, while contributing to the bank's overall strategic direction as part of the senior management team. Ncube led the formulation and guidance of the AfDB's Ten-Year Strategy for 2013–2022, a comprehensive framework aimed at enhancing Africa's economic transformation through , , and development. This strategy emphasized mobilizing resources for , , and skills development, with Ncube's economic analyses informing the bank's lending priorities and policy dialogues across member states. He also chaired the Operations Committee, which approved projects and investments totaling billions in commitments during his tenure, focusing on high-impact initiatives in , , and . Under Ncube's leadership in , the AfDB produced key reports on African financial markets and investment climates, including efforts to promote sovereign credit ratings to unlock capital flows estimated at over $100 billion annually for the continent. His work emphasized data-driven assessments of growth drivers, such as exports and , while advocating for reforms to address fiscal vulnerabilities in low-income countries. Ncube departed the AfDB prior to his appointment as Zimbabwe's Minister of Finance on September 7, 2018.

Other Global Finance and Policy Engagements

Ncube chaired the World Economic Forum's Global Agenda Council on and from 2010 to 2011, guiding discussions on strategies to reduce and promote growth in developing economies. He has contributed articles and insights to the WEF agenda on topics including financing development in emerging regions and challenges. In January 2025, during the WEF Annual Meeting in , Ncube participated in panels on public debt , highlighting the disproportionate burden on low-income countries where debt servicing often exceeds and spending combined. Beyond the WEF, Ncube has advocated for structural reforms in the to enhance access for African nations, including through diversified funding sources outside traditional Western institutions. In a 2013 analysis, he described BRICS-Africa partnerships as a potential "win-win" for industrialization and , emphasizing mutual benefits in trade and investment over aid dependency. As Finance Minister, he pursued financing from the BRICS in 2023 to fund projects, citing Zimbabwe's debt arrears to Western lenders as a barrier to conventional capital markets. Ncube has engaged with United Nations bodies on trade, development, and finance policy. He spoke at UNCTAD events on barriers to in , stressing the need for innovative instruments to bridge funding gaps. In February 2024, at the 56th Session of the UN Economic Commission for 's of African Ministers of Finance, he urged reforms to make "cheaper and easier" for the continent, pointing to high borrowing costs and limited concessional options as key constraints on growth. These interventions align with his broader policy stance favoring pragmatic, market-oriented approaches to global integration rather than reliance on multilateral frameworks criticized for inefficiency.

Political Career as Finance Minister

Appointment and Context

President appointed Mthuli Ncube as Minister of Finance and Economic Development on 7 September 2018, following the disputed July 2018 general elections in which Mnangagwa secured victory amid opposition challenges. Ncube, an economist with prior roles including chief economist at the and positions in academia and private finance, replaced Patrick Chinamasa in a aimed at injecting technocratic expertise. The appointment occurred against a backdrop of severe economic distress in Zimbabwe, stemming from decades of mismanagement under former President Robert Mugabe, hyperinflation episodes, and international isolation due to sanctions and governance failures. By 2018, the country faced acute liquidity shortages, with a multi-tiered pricing system reflecting dollar scarcity, high public sector wage burdens consuming up to 90% of the budget, and limited fiscal space for infrastructure or growth initiatives. Mnangagwa's administration, which assumed power via a 2017 military-backed transition, prioritized re-engagement with global financial institutions and structural reforms to stabilize the economy and attract investment, viewing Ncube's international credentials as key to signaling reform intent. Ncube's selection was part of broader cabinet changes emphasizing competence over loyalty, with expectations that his background in economic research and policy— including leadership at Quantum Global and affiliations—would address fiscal indiscipline and currency instability inherited from prior regimes. However, the included persistent political tensions, including post-election violence and opposition claims of electoral irregularities, which compounded economic recovery challenges.

Implemented Economic Reforms

Upon assuming office as Minister of Finance and Economic Development in November 2017, Mthuli Ncube launched the Transitional Stabilisation Programme (TSP) in October 2018, a two-year initiative running through 2020 designed to restore macroeconomic stability amid and foreign currency shortages. The TSP emphasized fiscal consolidation by curtailing , including a planned reduction of up to 40,000 positions and elimination of non-essential subsidies on fuel and . Monetary measures involved tightening policy to curb growth, prioritizing foreign reserve accumulation, and liberalizing market to transition from multi-currency use toward a single . Structural adjustments under Ncube's oversight included accelerating of underperforming state-owned enterprises, such as through public-private partnerships in and sectors, and streamlining regulations to reduce licensing fees and bureaucratic hurdles. In February 2019, the programme facilitated the reintroduction of the (RTGS dollar) as the sole , backed initially by reserves and aimed at ending dollarization, though this led to renewed ary pressures exceeding 500% annually by mid-2019. Complementary reforms promoted digital financial transactions, mandating electronic payments for government services and taxes to minimize cash hoarding and informal dollar usage, which contributed to lowering transaction costs and volatility. Subsequent policies extended these efforts into the National Development Strategy 1 (2021-2025), focusing on export-led growth through incentives for and , including a ban on raw exports in 2022 to encourage value addition. In April 2024, Ncube introduced the Zimbabwe (ZiG) currency, a structured basket backed 1:1 by and foreign reserves to anchor stability and combat parallel market premiums exceeding 20%. Fiscal discipline persisted with deficit targets capped at 2-3% of GDP, alongside tax base broadening via presumptive taxation for small businesses and virtual fiscalization systems. To facilitate , Ncube advanced compensation for farm owners displaced by 2000s land reforms, committing $3.5 billion in external financing for infrastructure-linked payments starting in , with initial disbursements tied to foreign investor guarantees. These measures aligned with ease-of-doing-business improvements, such as establishing the and Development Agency in to fast-track permits, though implementation faced delays due to judicial and administrative bottlenecks. Overall, reforms prioritized supply-side enhancements in and , targeting a shift from import dependence to self-sufficiency in and by 2025.

Measurable Achievements

Under Ncube's tenure, achieved a significant reduction in rates through reforms, including the introduction of auction in June 2020 and the shift to a market-determined , which helped curb hyperinflationary pressures; annual fell from a peak of 761% in August 2020 to 50% by August 2021. The launch of the Gold (ZiG) currency in April 2024, backed by and foreign reserves, further stabilized prices, with month-on-month holding at 0% in June 2024 compared to -2.4% in May, contributing to broader and amid tight . Fiscal discipline measures, such as cutting expenditure and balancing the , were prioritized from 2019 onward, marking an initial success in restraining quasi-fiscal operations by the and reducing money printing, which had previously fueled . projections reflected resilience despite external shocks like droughts; real GDP growth was forecasted at 6.6% for 2025, revised upward from 6%, driven by improved yields and global commodity prices, following a 5.5% estimate for 2023 that adjusted to 3.5% for 2024 due to El Niño effects. Progress in debt resolution included advancements in the arrears clearance framework since 2023, earning IMF acknowledgment for halting central bank monetary financing and initiating a staff-monitored program as a precursor to broader of 's approximately $21 billion stock, with high-level disclosures on parameters by mid-2025. These steps positioned closer to re-engagement with , though full resolution remained pending bridge financing and creditor agreements.

Criticisms and Policy Shortfalls

Critics have highlighted Ncube's currency reforms as a key shortfall, particularly the April 2024 launch of the gold-backed Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG), intended to stabilize the after years of dollarization and prior failures. Despite initial claims of anchoring , the ZiG experienced sharp , with Ncube himself anticipating a 52% in 2025 amid persistent parallel market premiums and eroding public confidence. Policies mandating ZiG use through penalties have instead driven transactions underground, exacerbating reliance and undermining monetary control, as volatility continued into late 2024 with spiking post-devaluation before partial decline. Fiscal policies under Ncube have drawn scrutiny for failing to curb domestic arrears and quasi-fiscal deficits while imposing regressive es amid structural vulnerabilities. The 2025 national budget introduced a 0.5% levy on , a 10% withholding on winnings, and hikes on alcohol and capital gains, measures economists argue disproportionately burden low-income households already facing food insecurity from El Niño-induced droughts and import dependencies. These come against a backdrop of annual reaching 635.3% per World Bank estimates and public debt at 93% of GDP by 2022, with weak budgetary institutions fueling arrears accumulation despite austerity rhetoric. The mid-term 2025 review was labeled "stingy" by analysts for lacking bold injections into —such as sector growth projected at just 0.1%—and prioritizing revenue extraction over expenditure rationalization, signaling reversals akin to earlier admissions of shortfalls. Broader implementation gaps underscore these issues, with economic blueprints like the National Development Strategy 1 showing inconsistent execution, including stalled of only 5 out of 48 targeted state-owned enterprises and unaddressed influences hindering . IMF assessments have attributed early policy missteps, such as 2019 monetary tightening, to reigniting chaos through exchange controls and mismatches, while persistent governance lapses— and rule-of-law deficits—block debt clearance and external financing access. Growth projections, revised downward for 2024 due to agricultural shortfalls, highlight over-reliance on optimistic forecasts without resolving crises or bottlenecks, perpetuating a cycle of instability despite Ncube's technocratic credentials.

Controversies and Public Reception

Transparency and Data Issues

A Zimbabwean ruling in December 2020 compelled Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube to disclose all government loans and guarantees contracted between January 1, 2019, and January 1, 2020, in response to a highlighting the opacity of public accumulation under his tenure. This case underscored persistent fiscal secrecy, as the government had previously withheld details on external borrowings exceeding $10 billion, including arrangements with entities like and private creditors, despite constitutional requirements for parliamentary approval. Ncube's budget presentations have drawn criticism for neglecting key transparency benchmarks, such as the (EITI), which Zimbabwe endorsed in 2018 but has seen minimal implementation progress; his July 2023 mid-term review omitted any reference to EITI compliance, fueling concerns that resource revenue reporting remains inadequate amid sector growth. Fiscal reporting gaps persisted into 2025, with the under Ncube failing to table supplementary budgets in prior mid-term statements, despite expenditures deviating from approved allocations; stakeholders urged the ministry to exemplify transparency by reconciling variances in revenue collection—projected at ZWL$32 trillion for 2024 but subject to frequent revisions—and unauthorized spending. issues emerged early in Ncube's term, as the National Statistics Agency rebased GDP figures in 2018, inflating the economy's nominal value by 40% to $34 billion from $24 billion, primarily by incorporating informal sector estimates comprising over 60% of activity; while Ncube defended the adjustment as methodological modernization, it coincided with post-Mugabe stabilization efforts and drew skepticism over potential overstatement to attract investors, given historical precedents of revised and growth metrics under political pressure. Independent verification of base year updates and valuations remained limited, exacerbating distrust in official indicators like the 2023 GDP growth rate of 5.0%, which analysts attributed partly to inconsistencies rather than verifiable output gains.

Political Allegations and Economic Blame

Mthuli Ncube has faced political allegations primarily centered on and mismanagement in public procurement and financial oversight. In May 2023, Zimbabwe's Parliament summoned Ncube to address claims raised in the Al Jazeera "Gold Mafia" documentary, which alleged widespread , , and gold smuggling contributing to economic decline; Ncube was questioned on government responses to illicit financial flows but no formal charges resulted from the appearance. In October 2025, the invited him to explain allegations of by senior officials in government contracting, where inflated bids allegedly covered unofficial payments, leading to project delays and fiscal strain. Earlier, in December 2019, Ncube contested a attempt in the over four counts of alleged , including irregularities in financial dealings, though the case did not proceed to conviction. Critics have also questioned Ncube's academic credentials following his alignment with Zanu-PF, with opposition figures alleging discrepancies in his claimed qualifications from institutions like School of Economics, though Ncube has maintained their validity without independent verification in public records. These allegations occur amid broader scrutiny of Zanu-PF , where institutional biases toward the ruling party may amplify unproven claims against technocrats like Ncube, while of personal enrichment remains absent. On economic blame, Ncube has been accused by opposition voices and analysts of exacerbating 's crises through policy failures, despite inheriting structural issues from prior and sanctions. Journalist described Ncube as overseeing "the worst economy in the world" due to "misguided and corrupt policies," pointing to persistent currency instability and exceeding 1,000% in some periods under his tenure. The December 2023 awarding of "Best African Finance Minister" by the African Development Magazine drew public derision, as grappled with 80% rates and multi-currency chaos, with detractors attributing ongoing woes to Ncube's reintroduction of the in and subsequent devaluations rather than external factors alone. Ncube's 2025 budget, introducing taxes on , , and informal sectors, faced backlash for deepening amid insecurity affecting 30% of the , with critics arguing it prioritized revenue over growth in a context of 40% . In response, Ncube has attributed blame to informal traders evading formal channels and poor in retail, claiming these distort fiscal data; however, Afrobarometer surveys indicate widespread public dissatisfaction, with over 70% viewing the economy negatively despite official growth projections of 2-3%. Such attributions reflect causal debates, where Ncube emphasizes structural informality rooted in past distortions, but opponents highlight implementation shortfalls in his command and auction systems, which yielded inconsistent harvests and forex shortages. No peer-reviewed analyses conclusively link Ncube's reforms to net economic deterioration, though inherited debt at 100% of GDP limits maneuverability.

Personal Life and Views

Family and Background

Mthuli Ncube was born on 30 November 1964 in , with sources placing his origins in , including Lupane or . He progressed through rapidly, completing a PhD in from the by age 26, reflecting an early focus on and quantitative fields. Ncube is married to an , and the couple has four children. He maintains a low public profile on family matters, with limited details available beyond these basics. His personal interests include , reading, writing, and painting, which align with his professional pursuits in policy and academia. No verified information exists on his parents or extended family origins in public records.

Economic Philosophy and Public Stance

Mthuli Ncube's economic philosophy centers on , which he defines as integrating broad-based development with poverty alleviation and sustainable infrastructure investment. As Chief Economist and Vice President at the from 2013 to 2018, he spearheaded the creation of an Inclusive Growth Index for and aligned the institution's 10-year strategy (2013–2022) to this framework, prioritizing involvement alongside reforms to foster equitable expansion. This approach reflects his background in , informed by a PhD in from the , and emphasizes empirical metrics for assessing development outcomes over ideological prescriptions. In , Ncube advocates market-oriented reforms to enhance competitiveness and attract , including of , privatization of state enterprises, and reduction of bureaucratic hurdles. Addressing representatives in 2018, he outlined urgent measures such as slashing and easing to revive 's economy, positioning these as essential for private sector-led recovery. He has consistently supported non-intervention in market mechanisms, notably committing in 2019 to keep the out of foreign exchanges to preserve market integrity and prevent distortions. Ncube also promotes digital financial transactions as a tool to combat , crediting their expansion with stabilizing prices in by improving transaction efficiency and reducing cash dependency. Ncube's fiscal stance prioritizes macroeconomic stability and prudent resource allocation, viewing sustained low and predictability as foundational for and long-term growth. In his July 31, 2025, Mid-Term Budget and Economic Review speech, he stressed "living within our means" through a with a minimal 0.4% GDP deficit (ZiG6.1 billion), while allocating resources to like and (ZiG15.7 billion) to underpin 6% GDP growth targets. Regionally, he calls for barrier removal at borders to enable a continental for , aligning with Agenda 2063's integration goals during his February 2024 address at the African Union's Conference of Ministers. Despite challenges like droughts and power shortages, Ncube maintains optimism for resilient growth averaging 5% annually from 2026 to 2029, contingent on private credit expansion and business environment improvements.

References

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