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Torino scale
The Torino scale is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets. It is intended as a communication tool for astronomers and the public to assess the seriousness of collision predictions, by combining probability statistics and known kinetic damage potentials into a single threat value. The Palermo scale is a similar, but more complex scale.
Near-Earth objects with a Torino scale of 1 are discovered several times a year, and may last a few weeks until they have a longer observation arc that eliminates any possibility of a collision. The only objects on the Torino scale that have ever ranked higher are asteroids 99942 Apophis, which had a rating of 4 for four days in late 2004, the highest recorded rating; (144898) 2004 VD17, with a historical rating of 2 from February to May 2006; and 2024 YR4, with a rating of 3 from January 27, 2025 to February 20, 2025.
The Torino scale uses an integer scale from 0 to 10. A 0 indicates an object has a negligibly small chance of collision with the Earth, compared with the usual "background noise" of collision events, or is too small to penetrate Earth's atmosphere intact. A 10 indicates that a collision is certain, and the impacting object is large enough to precipitate a global disaster.
An object is assigned a 0 to 10 value based on its collision probability and the kinetic energy of the possible collision.
The Torino scale is defined only for potential impacts less than 100 years in the future.
"For an object with multiple potential collisions on a set of dates, a Torino scale value should be determined for each date. It may be convenient to summarize such an object by the greatest Torino scale value within the set."
The Torino scale was created by Professor Richard P. Binzel in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The first version, called "A Near-Earth Object Hazard Index", was presented at a United Nations conference in 1995 and was published by Binzel in the subsequent conference proceedings (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, volume 822, 1997.)
A revised version of the "Hazard Index" was presented at a June 1999 international conference on NEOs held in Torino (Turin), Italy. The conference participants voted to adopt the revised version, where the bestowed name "Torino scale" recognizes the spirit of international cooperation displayed at that conference toward research efforts to understand the hazards posed by NEOs. ("Torino scale" is the proper usage, not "Turin scale.") This version was published in a subsequent peer-reviewed article.
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Torino scale AI simulator
(@Torino scale_simulator)
Torino scale
The Torino scale is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets. It is intended as a communication tool for astronomers and the public to assess the seriousness of collision predictions, by combining probability statistics and known kinetic damage potentials into a single threat value. The Palermo scale is a similar, but more complex scale.
Near-Earth objects with a Torino scale of 1 are discovered several times a year, and may last a few weeks until they have a longer observation arc that eliminates any possibility of a collision. The only objects on the Torino scale that have ever ranked higher are asteroids 99942 Apophis, which had a rating of 4 for four days in late 2004, the highest recorded rating; (144898) 2004 VD17, with a historical rating of 2 from February to May 2006; and 2024 YR4, with a rating of 3 from January 27, 2025 to February 20, 2025.
The Torino scale uses an integer scale from 0 to 10. A 0 indicates an object has a negligibly small chance of collision with the Earth, compared with the usual "background noise" of collision events, or is too small to penetrate Earth's atmosphere intact. A 10 indicates that a collision is certain, and the impacting object is large enough to precipitate a global disaster.
An object is assigned a 0 to 10 value based on its collision probability and the kinetic energy of the possible collision.
The Torino scale is defined only for potential impacts less than 100 years in the future.
"For an object with multiple potential collisions on a set of dates, a Torino scale value should be determined for each date. It may be convenient to summarize such an object by the greatest Torino scale value within the set."
The Torino scale was created by Professor Richard P. Binzel in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The first version, called "A Near-Earth Object Hazard Index", was presented at a United Nations conference in 1995 and was published by Binzel in the subsequent conference proceedings (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, volume 822, 1997.)
A revised version of the "Hazard Index" was presented at a June 1999 international conference on NEOs held in Torino (Turin), Italy. The conference participants voted to adopt the revised version, where the bestowed name "Torino scale" recognizes the spirit of international cooperation displayed at that conference toward research efforts to understand the hazards posed by NEOs. ("Torino scale" is the proper usage, not "Turin scale.") This version was published in a subsequent peer-reviewed article.