Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Conference

The Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Conference (ANC) is a regional political party operating in the Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, established in 1986 by Ghulam Mohammad Shah as a breakaway faction from the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference following internal divisions and his brief tenure as chief minister from 1984 to 1986.^[1][2] Shah, the son-in-law of National Conference founder Sheikh Abdullah, formed the party initially as the National Conference (Khalida) in 1982 before renaming it Awami National Conference amid political turbulence that included his government's dismissal amid communal unrest in 1986.^[1] The ANC positions itself as a proponent of Kashmiri regional interests, advocating for the restoration of the special status revoked by the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, and has joined alliances like the People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration to pursue this goal through legal and electoral means.^[3] Under the leadership of Begum Khalida Shah, the founder's widow and current president, the party has contested assembly and parliamentary elections, though it has achieved limited electoral success as a smaller entity overshadowed by larger regional parties. Defining characteristics include its commitment to the welfare of Jammu and Kashmir residents and opposition to central government interventions perceived as eroding local autonomy, reflecting continuities with the parent National Conference's emphasis on self-rule while distancing from its mainstream alliances.^[4] Notable controversies trace back to Shah's chief ministerial period, including the handling of 1986 communal riots in Anantnag that contributed to the imposition of governor's rule and are cited by some as early triggers for escalating unrest in the region.^[5] The ANC's participation in challenging the Article 370 revocation before the Supreme Court underscores its role in regional constitutional debates, though its influence remains marginal in broader electoral politics.^[3]

History

Formation and Rise to Power (1984–1986)

Ghulam Mohammad Shah, son-in-law of Sheikh Abdullah and brother-in-law to Farooq Abdullah, led a factional split from the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) in July 1984 amid escalating internal rivalries over party control following Sheikh Abdullah's death in 1982. Shah, backed by 13 defecting JKNC legislators, capitalized on tensions exacerbated by the Indian National Congress's withdrawal of external support from Farooq Abdullah's government, which had secured a strong mandate in the 1983 assembly elections with 47 seats. This defection triggered Governor Jagmohan's dismissal of Farooq Abdullah as Chief Minister on July 2, 1984, and the immediate installation of Shah, who commanded a slim majority of 48 seats in the 76-member assembly through the alliance with Congress members.^[6][7][8] The maneuver reflected central government intervention under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to counter Farooq's perceived alignment with opposition forces, enabling Shah's rapid ascent despite lacking a separate party structure at the time; his group functioned as a JKNC breakaway faction supported by 12 Congress MLAs. Shah's tenure as Chief Minister from July 2, 1984, to March 6, 1986, marked the faction's consolidation of power, drawing in disaffected JKNC elements frustrated with Farooq's leadership style and seeking leverage against dynastic tendencies within the parent party. This period saw the faction attract regional loyalists, particularly from Kashmir Valley districts, by emphasizing continuity in JKNC traditions like demands for greater autonomy while pragmatically aligning with New Delhi's interests.^[2][9][10] Following Shah's government's dismissal by Governor Jagmohan on March 6, 1986, amid mounting unrest, the faction formalized as the Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Conference in July 1986, explicitly positioning itself as a populist alternative to the JKNC's established hierarchy. The new entity retained ideological overlap with the JKNC on preserving Article 370 and regional self-rule but critiqued the latter's internal dynamics as overly familial, appealing to cadres desiring assertive representation independent of Farooq Abdullah's influence. This rebranding facilitated quick organizational buildup among former allies, setting the stage for future electoral challenges despite the immediate loss of executive authority.^[11][8]

Tenure as Chief Minister and Key Policies (1984–1987)

Ghulam Mohammad Shah assumed the position of Chief Minister on July 2, 1984, following the defection of 13 National Conference legislators, which toppled Farooq Abdullah's government, with initial backing from the Indian National Congress.^[7] His administration, sustained by a fragile coalition, prioritized short-term populist measures amid Jammu and Kashmir's heavy fiscal dependence on central government transfers, which constituted over 90% of the state's budgetary resources during the period.^[12] Economic initiatives included targeted subsidies for agriculture and small-scale industries, alongside modest infrastructure projects such as road expansions in rural areas, though verifiable long-term impacts remained negligible due to the government's brief 20-month duration and ensuing political instability.^[12] Administrative policies emphasized consolidation of power through patronage networks, but encountered strains in security coordination with New Delhi, as rising cross-border influences and internal dissent challenged effective governance. Shah's cabinet pursued limited land distribution adjustments under existing reforms inherited from prior regimes, alongside measures to safeguard minority land holdings in mixed regions, which drew ire from segments of Muslim-majority areas perceiving these as concessions to Jammu's Hindu-dominated interests, thereby exacerbating regional divides. These steps, intended to balance ethnic claims, instead fueled perceptions of favoritism and contributed to early alienation in the Kashmir Valley. A pivotal controversy arose in January 1986 when Shah authorized the construction of a mosque within the Jammu Civil Secretariat premises, on the site of a dilapidated Hindu temple, framed as a cultural assertion for the Muslim community.^[13] This decision ignited protests across Jammu, prompting Shah to declare "Islam khatre mein hai" (Islam is in danger) upon returning to the Valley, which inflamed communal passions and permitted inflammatory religious processions that heightened sensitivities.^[14] The ensuing unrest, including targeted attacks on Hindu properties and temples in Anantnag district starting February 20, 1986, marked a sharp escalation in Valley tensions, with over a dozen fatalities and displacement of minority families, underscoring the administration's failure to contain sectarian mobilization amid weak central-provincial alignment on law enforcement.^[15] These events highlighted the fragility of Shah's policy approach, prioritizing symbolic gestures over de-escalation, while fiscal bottlenecks and inadequate infrastructure outlays limited broader developmental gains.

Dismissal and Political Fallout (1987)

The government led by Ghulam Mohammad Shah of the Awami National Conference (ANC) was dismissed on March 12, 1986, after the Congress party withdrew its legislative support, citing the administration's failure to maintain law and order amid escalating communal riots in the Kashmir Valley.^[16] The unrest, which erupted on February 27, 1986, in Anantnag district over a land allocation dispute involving a Muslim trust and a Hindu organization, rapidly devolved into targeted attacks on Hindu temples, homes, and businesses across south Kashmir, resulting in at least 12 deaths, hundreds injured, and the displacement of minority communities.^[17] Governor Jagmohan, appointed earlier that year, invoked provisions under the Jammu and Kashmir constitution to impose direct central administration, effectively suspending the state assembly and transferring executive powers to New Delhi.^[16] This intervention marked the abrupt termination of ANC's executive authority, fracturing its fragile coalition with Congress, which had been instrumental in Shah's rise to power in 1984.^[17] The party's inability to quell the violence—exacerbated by delays in deploying security forces and perceived leniency toward rioters—severely damaged its credibility, particularly among Jammu's Hindu-majority voters and urban moderates who viewed the Shah regime as complicit in fostering ethnic tensions.^[11] In the ensuing months under central rule, ANC leaders, including Shah, faced isolation as former allies pivoted toward reconciliation efforts, such as the September 1986 Rajiv-Farooq Accord between Congress and the National Conference, sidelining the splinter group.^[2] The political vacuum and lingering distrust from the 1986 crisis contributed to heightened skepticism toward the March 23, 1987, assembly elections, where ANC mounted a subdued campaign but failed to regain traction amid opposition claims of systemic irregularities favoring the National Conference-Congress alliance.^[18] ANC's poor showing—securing no assembly seats despite contesting multiple constituencies—stemmed from voter backlash over the prior unrest and the party's diminished organizational capacity, rendering it ineffective as an opposition force in the immediate post-election landscape.^[19] These events underscored causal pathways to regional instability, as the perceived erosion of democratic legitimacy under ANC's watch alienated youth and Islamist-leaning groups, setting the stage for broader disillusionment without direct ANC orchestration.^[5]

Decline and Marginalization (1987–Present)

The dismissal of the Awami National Conference (ANC) government under Ghulam Mohammad Shah on March 6, 1987, marked the onset of the party's rapid erosion from mainstream politics in Jammu and Kashmir.[] Lacking the institutional base of its parent Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, the ANC struggled to regroup amid escalating public disillusionment with electoral processes, culminating in the widely disputed 1987 assembly elections that fueled the insurgency.[] As militancy surged in the Kashmir Valley from 1988 onward, with groups like the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front gaining traction, the ANC's secular-regionalist platform offered little appeal in a landscape dominated by separatist violence and security crackdowns, rendering it electorally peripheral by the early 1990s.[] The death of founder Ghulam Mohammad Shah on January 6, 2009, exacerbated the leadership vacuum, as his son Muzaffar Shah, who assumed a senior role, failed to galvanize widespread support or counter the dominance of revived mainstream parties like the National Conference and People's Democratic Party.[] Persistent internal factionalism and inability to adapt to shifting voter priorities— from autonomy demands to development and security—further sidelined the ANC, with no notable alliances or policy innovations sustaining its relevance.[] In the post-abrogation landscape after Article 370's revocation on August 5, 2019, the ANC's opposition stance, including legal challenges by Muzaffar Shah and calls for reinstatement in its 2024 manifesto, has proven inconsequential against the Bharatiya Janata Party's integration agenda and the National Conference's electoral resurgence.[] The party's negligible presence in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and 2024 assembly elections underscores its obsolescence, as larger entities captured the discourse on statehood and governance without ANC input.[] This marginalization stems from causal failures in organizational renewal and alignment with post-insurgency realities, where empirical voter shifts favored parties demonstrating governance capacity over nostalgic autonomy rhetoric.[]

Ideology and Political Positions

Stance on Autonomy and Article 370

The Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Conference (ANC) has long demanded the restoration of the pre-1953 constitutional status for the region, which would revert to the autonomous framework under Article 370 prior to the extension of central laws and the state's alignment with India's constitutional provisions.^[20] This stance emphasizes self-rule through a separate flag, prime minister, and limited applicability of Indian laws, positioning ANC as a proponent of regional sovereignty while critiquing central overreach.^[21] As a splinter from the dynastic-dominated Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, ANC frames its autonomy advocacy as a non-familial reform to genuine self-governance, though it shares the core rejection of post-1953 integrations.^[22] Following the 2019 abrogation of Article 370, ANC condemned the move as an existential erosion of regional identity and reiterated calls for full reinstatement of Articles 370 and 35A in its manifestos, viewing the revocation as a unilateral assault on historical accords.^[23] Despite this opposition, the party's marginal electoral footprint—often securing negligible seats—has rendered it unable to mount significant resistance or influence policy, highlighting its limited leverage amid broader national integration efforts.^[24] Empirically, ANC's persistent autonomy demands reflect a causal disconnect from integration dynamics, as pre-abrogation special status correlated with sustained militancy: annual terrorist incidents exceeded 1,000 in peak years like the early 2000s, with over 40,000 total fatalities from 1989 to 2019.^[25] Post-2019, incidents fell 66%, infiltration attempts dropped sharply (e.g., fewer than 12 local recruits by mid-2023), and overall deaths declined from 253 in 2022 to lower figures in subsequent years, suggesting that autonomy insulation perpetuated conflict incentives without yielding governance improvements like reduced corruption or enhanced development.^[26][27] Such positions arguably enabled elite entrenchment and separatist mobilization by shielding the region from accountability mechanisms, stalling infrastructure investment due to land restrictions under Article 35A.^[28] Proponents within autonomist circles, including ANC, maintain that pre-1953 restoration defends indigenous rights against assimilation, preserving cultural and administrative distinctiveness.^[29] Critics, particularly from integrationist perspectives, counter that these demands fostered secessionist ideologies and economic underperformance—evidenced by J&K's per capita income lagging national averages by over 30% pre-abrogation—by prioritizing symbolic autonomy over pragmatic stability and growth.^[29][28] This debate underscores how autonomy advocacy, while rooted in historical grievance, empirically prolonged volatility without verifiable advancements in welfare or security.

Regionalism and Ethnic Politics

The Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Conference (ANC) has centered its political appeal on the ethnic and cultural identity of Kashmiri Muslims, predominantly in the Kashmir Valley, where the party traces its roots through founder Qazi Nisar Ahmad, a mirwaiz from Anantnag known for mobilizing local religious and communal sentiments. This focus manifested in alliances like the 1987 Muslim United Front coalition, which prioritized Valley-specific grievances over broader state integration, reinforcing perceptions of ethnic exclusivity amid Jammu's Hindu-majority demographics and Ladakh's Buddhist communities. ANC's regionalist stance contributed to ethnic tensions by advocating policies that favored Valley interests, such as resistance to measures seen as undermining Muslim demographic strength, which alienated Jammu residents who cited historical neglect in resource distribution and political representation.^[30] Unlike later efforts by parties like the BJP to forge cross-regional coalitions through outreach in Jammu and Ladakh, ANC formed limited pacts with like-minded Valley groups but failed to bridge divides, perpetuating sub-regional fragmentation inherited from 1947 partition dynamics.^[31] Post-1980s analyses link such ethnic regionalism to causal factors in declining inter-regional trust, with studies documenting heightened polarization where Valley-centric politics amplified resentment and ethnic salience, particularly after violence onset reduced cross-community interactions.^[32] ANC supporters maintain this emphasis safeguards distinct Kashmiri cultural heritage against centralizing influences, yet detractors argue it empirically exacerbated fractures, as evidenced by Jammu's sustained demands for equitable power-sharing and Ladakh's eventual push for separate union territory status in 2019.^[31]

Relations with Islamism and National Security

During Ghulam Mohammad Shah's tenure as Chief Minister from December 1984 to November 1986, the Awami National Conference-led government exhibited tolerance for mosque-led political mobilizations, often framing political disputes in religious terms such as "Islam in danger" to rally Muslim support against perceived threats from Jammu's Hindu-majority population.^[33][13] This approach, including the decision to construct a mosque within the premises of the ancient Hindu Raghunath Temple complex in Jammu's civil secretariat area in 1986, escalated communal tensions and preceded the surge in Islamist militancy starting in 1989 by fostering an environment of religious polarization.^[14] Security analysts have criticized these policies for being lenient toward radical preaching in mosques, which mobilized crowds for protests that turned violent, contrasting with post-2019 deradicalization efforts following the abrogation of Article 370 that correlated with a 70% decline in terror incidents by 2023 through stricter oversight of extremist rhetoric. A notable example of ideological alignment with Islamist elements occurred when Shah's administration incorporated two battalions affiliated with Jamaat-e-Islami—known for its advocacy of political Islam and opposition to secular nationalism—into the state police force to bolster internal security, despite the group's history of radical religious mobilization. While no evidence links the ANC directly to terrorist operations, this integration provided a platform for Islamist influence within security apparatus, potentially undermining counter-insurgency cohesion as Jamaat cadres later formed the core of groups like Hizb-ul-Mujahideen in the late 1980s.^[34] The ANC's persistent demand for restoring pre-2019 autonomy under Article 370 overlaps ideologically with Islamist-separatist calls for plebiscite or azadi, as both resist full integration into India's national security framework, thereby complicating unified counter-terrorism strategies in the region.^[3] Left-leaning commentaries often frame such positions as legitimate expressions of regional democratic aspirations, yet right-leaning analyses, drawing on causal links between 1980s appeasement and the 1990s violence that killed over 40,000, argue they played a contributory role in escalating instability by signaling weakness to radical elements.^[5][13] Post-Shah, the party has maintained this stance without endorsing violence, but critics contend it indirectly hampers security by prioritizing autonomy over deradicalization.^[23]

Leadership and Organization

Founders and Prominent Figures

Ghulam Mohammad Shah founded the Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Conference in 1984 after defecting from the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, where he had been a senior leader and brother-in-law to its president Farooq Abdullah.^[10] This split, backed by elements of the central government, enabled Shah to form a rival faction emphasizing regional autonomy and populist appeals, positioning the new party as an alternative to the established National Conference.^[10] Shah served as the party's president and became Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir on July 2, 1984, holding office until his dismissal on March 6, 1986, amid governance controversies and communal unrest.^[35] As the sole prominent figure to lead the party to governmental power, Shah's tenure defined its brief ascendancy, marked by policies aimed at broadening political support beyond the Kashmir Valley, though his defection-driven rise drew accusations of opportunism from contemporaries.^[10] Following Shah's death on January 6, 2009, at age 88, leadership transitioned to family members, including his wife Khalida Shah, who assumed the presidency, and son Muzaffar Ahmad Shah, who later served as senior vice president.^[36] However, these successors have not replicated Shah's influence, contributing to the party's marginalization and lack of enduring charismatic leadership, with no figure emerging to sustain organizational vitality post-2009.^[37]

Internal Structure and Factions

The Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Conference (ANC) maintained a loose, cadre-based organizational framework primarily sustained through the personal networks and influence of its founder, Ghulam Mohammad Shah, rather than robust institutional mechanisms.^[38] This structure, which emerged from Shah's 1984 defection with 12 legislators from the Jammu Kashmir National Conference, prioritized short-term power consolidation over long-term organizational development, rendering the party susceptible to disintegration upon leadership disruptions.^[39] Following Shah's dismissal as Chief Minister on March 7, 1986, the ANC's internal cohesion eroded rapidly, leading to fragmentation where key members either rejoined the parent JKNC or pursued independent political paths amid the ensuing instability.^[40] The absence of formalized hierarchies exacerbated this splintering, as loyalties tied to Shah's individual stature dissolved without alternative binding structures, contrasting with more disciplined, vertically integrated parties that emphasize programmatic discipline over personal allegiance. Historically, the ANC operated without dedicated youth or women's wings exhibiting verifiable, sustained activity, a gap that underscored its organizational shallowness until recent appointments in 2024, such as provincial youth wing leadership roles, signaled remedial efforts amid ongoing marginalization.^[41] This reliance on ad hoc, personality-driven mobilization, rather than institutionalized wings, perpetuated vulnerability to opportunism and internal discord, limiting the party's resilience beyond its founder's tenure.

Electoral Performance and Alliances

Assembly Election Results

The Awami National Conference (ANC), having governed Jammu and Kashmir until its dismissal in March 1986, contested the 1987 assembly elections amid heightened political tensions following the imposition of President's rule. Widely alleged to have been rigged in favor of the National Conference-Congress alliance, the polls resulted in negligible gains for the ANC, with the party securing no legislative seats as the insurgency escalated in the aftermath.^[5][18] In the 1996, 2002, 2008, and 2014 assembly elections, the ANC maintained a marginal presence, contesting select constituencies but winning zero seats across all cycles, with vote shares consistently below 2% based on Election Commission of India records. This pattern underscored the party's inability to capitalize on regional grievances amid the dominance of militancy and larger regional parties.^[42][43] The 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly elections, the first since the 2019 revocation of Article 370, further highlighted the ANC's electoral irrelevance, as the party fielded candidates in limited seats but secured no victories and minimal vote percentages, often under 1% in contested areas per official tallies.^[44][45] The ANC's consistent zero-seat outcomes correlate with the onset of Kashmiri militancy post-1987, which disrupted political mobilization, and later national policy shifts emphasizing integration, eroding the party's autonomy-focused base without evidence of revival.^[5]

Coalition Dynamics and Strategies

The Awami National Conference (ANC) entered Jammu and Kashmir's political landscape through a tactical alliance with the Indian National Congress, which engineered the dismissal of Farooq Abdullah's National Conference government on 2 July 1984, installing ANC leader Ghulam Mohammad Shah as Chief Minister with the support of 12 defecting NC legislators.^[2][9] This Congress-backed coalition, formed amid internal NC fissures, prioritized power consolidation over ideological consistency but unraveled due to escalating communal tensions and governance failures, culminating in Governor Jagmohan's dismissal of the Shah ministry on 18 July 1986 and the imposition of President's Rule.^[5][46] Post-1987, amid the rigged assembly elections and the eruption of Islamist insurgency that eroded trust in mainstream politics, the ANC encountered profound isolation, unable to secure viable coalitions as militancy overshadowed electoral maneuvering and regional parties fragmented.^[18] Overtures toward unification with the parent NC remained aspirational but unrealized, described by observers as a "distant dream" due to entrenched rivalries and the ANC's diminished cadre.^[47] Efforts to align with newer entities like the People's Democratic Party (PDP), formed in 1999, yielded no sustained partnerships, reinforcing the ANC's marginal status against dominant national forces.^[48] ANC strategies have emphasized ad hoc, leader-driven alliances over programmatic depth, leveraging personal networks—such as Shah family ties—for short-term gains, a pattern empirically undermined by the party's inability to counter national parties' organizational superiority and voter mobilization.^[49] This approach manifested in the 2020 People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), a coalition with NC, PDP, and others to challenge Article 370's abrogation, yet it dissolved before the 2024 polls amid accusations of opportunism from detractors who highlighted its failure to translate unity into electoral leverage.^[50] Proponents, including PAGD participants, frame such maneuvers as pragmatic adaptations to central dominance, while autonomist critics, including voices within regional discourse, condemn them as dilutions of core self-rule advocacy, prioritizing expediency over doctrinal fidelity.^[51][52]

Controversies and Criticisms

Role in 1986 Anantnag Riots and Communal Tensions

In February 1986, communal riots erupted in Anantnag district and surrounding areas of south Kashmir, including Sopore and Vanpoh, primarily targeting Kashmiri Pandit (Hindu) communities. Mobs attacked Hindu properties, looted homes, and desecrated temples, with reports of several Hindus killed and widespread destruction of religious sites.^[53][54] The violence was triggered by rumors of impending threats to Muslim holy sites, amplified by the perceived permission granted by the state government for Hindu religious constructions in the valley, alongside national controversies over the Ayodhya site and a local dispute involving the removal of a Hanuman statue near a Muslim shrine in Anantnag.^[55][15] The Awami National Conference (ANC)-led government under Chief Minister Ghulam Mohammad Shah, who had assumed office in March 1984 after splitting from the National Conference, faced accusations of exacerbating tensions through provocative administrative decisions and public statements. Shah's announcement of plans to construct a mosque adjacent to a prominent Hindu temple in Jammu had already incited protests there, which some accounts link to retaliatory violence in Kashmir.^[14] Critics, particularly from Jammu-based perspectives, argued that Shah's rhetoric and policies signaled favoritism toward Muslim sentiments, failing to preempt or deter the unrest despite prior warnings of communal friction.^[14][54] The administration's response was widely criticized as inadequate, with limited arrests, no thorough investigations into perpetrators, and efforts perceived as downplaying the scale of anti-Hindu targeting.^[56][57] This perceived leniency reportedly emboldened Islamist elements, contributing to heightened sectarian divides that foreshadowed broader instability in the region. The central government dismissed Shah's coalition on March 12, 1986, imposing governor's rule amid the fallout.^[33][58]

Allegations of Defection and Political Opportunism

In 1984, Ghulam Mohammad Shah, a prominent leader within the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC), orchestrated the defection of 13 NC legislators, including himself, which toppled the government of Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah on July 2.^[7][59] This floor-crossing maneuver, backed by the Indian National Congress, reduced Abdullah's majority in the 76-member assembly from 47 seats to below the threshold, allowing Shah to be sworn in as chief minister.^[6] Critics, including NC loyalists, condemned the action as a betrayal of party discipline and electoral mandate, given that Abdullah's NC had won 46 of 75 contested seats in the 1983 elections; the defections defied internal party loyalty and exploited J&K's then-absent anti-defection law, prompting subsequent legislative reforms.^[60] Shah's subsequent formation of the Awami National Conference (ANC) in 1984 as a splinter from the NC—initially operating as a faction before formalizing under that name—has been portrayed by detractors as prioritizing personal political dominance over ideological consistency.^[61] Assembly records from the period document these shifts, with Shah's group leveraging defectors to form a minority government sustained by Congress support until its dismissal in 1986 amid unrest.^[62] Opponents argue this pattern exemplified opportunism, as Shah, once a close Abdullah family associate through marriage to Farooq's sister Khalida Shah, pursued power via alliances that fractured familial and partisan ties without a clear alternative policy platform beyond autonomy rhetoric shared with the parent party.^[63] While some defenders frame Shah's maneuvers as pragmatic responses to internal NC dysfunction and Congress interference in a volatile regional polity, the events are widely cited as contributing to governance instability through recurrent horse-trading.^[64] Proponents of this view contend that such realpolitik was inevitable amid J&K's fragmented politics post-1977 NC-Congress accord breakdowns, yet acknowledge that the defections eroded public trust in elected mandates, as evidenced by the short-lived Shah regime's collapse after 20 months.^[65]

Accusations of Fostering Instability

Critics have accused the Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Conference (ANC) of contributing to regional instability through its advocacy for enhanced autonomy, interpreted by opponents as implicitly challenging India's full integration of the territory. During Ghulam Mohammad Shah's tenure as chief minister from December 1984 to March 1986, the ANC-led government's dismissal by the Governor amid escalating communal tensions was linked by analysts to a broader erosion of faith in electoral politics, which empirically preceded the 1987 assembly polls' disputed outcomes and the subsequent surge in youth militancy by 1989.^[18][5] In the Shah era, permissions for public displays and events tolerant of Islamist rhetoric were cited in retrospective intelligence evaluations as emboldening proto-separatist groups, fostering an environment of anti-accession sentiment without direct ANC endorsement of armed struggle. This period's political fragmentation, including ANC's alignment with figures like Qazi Nisar, correlated with heightened communal mobilization that undermined secular governance structures. More recently, ANC's involvement in the People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) since 2020 has drawn charges from retired bureaucrats, judges, and security personnel of promoting separatism by demanding Article 370's restoration, a position seen as sustaining alienation narratives amid declining militancy post-abrogation. BJP leaders have argued that such rhetoric risks reigniting instability by questioning the 2019 constitutional changes, though ANC has consistently disavowed violence in favor of electoral and diplomatic avenues.^[66][67] While lacking evidence of direct incitement, detractors attribute indirect causal effects to ANC's inaction against radical fringes within its autonomy framework, potentially eroding counter-terrorism cohesion.^[68]

Legacy and Impact

Contributions to J&K Governance

During its founder's tenure as Chief Minister from 12 December 1984 to 7 March 1986, the Awami National Conference's political precursor implemented policies to expand educational institutions and address unemployment through targeted initiatives.^[69] These efforts included promoting growth in schooling and vocational programs, though specific enrollment figures or long-term outcomes remain unquantified in available records.^[69] The party positioned itself as an alternative to the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference's longstanding dominance, fostering coalition precedents that influenced subsequent regional governments by demonstrating viability of alliances with national parties like Congress.^[70] This challenge to monopoly power emphasized rhetorical commitments to local empowerment and reduced central oversight, yet practical delivery was hampered by fiscal constraints and short governance duration.^[70] Post-1986, ANC's direct influence on governance waned, with no verifiable major infrastructure legacies—such as roads, power projects, or public works—attributed to the party enduring into later decades.^[14] Welfare measures remained short-term and localized, often prioritizing political mobilization over sustained development metrics.^[71]

Long-Term Effects on Regional Politics

The fragmentation of mainstream political entities in Jammu and Kashmir, exemplified by the Awami National Conference's (ANC) emergence as a splinter from the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference in the mid-1980s under Ghulam Mohammad Shah, diluted unified moderate voices advocating electoral participation and integration within India. This splintering, amid rising separatist sentiments following the disputed 1987 assembly elections, created political vacuums that militants exploited by positioning themselves as alternatives to divided pro-India factions, thereby prolonging low-level insurgency through the 1990s and early 2000s as cohesive opposition to extremism waned.^[2] ANC's persistent emphasis on regional autonomy and grievances, often through alliances like the People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration formed in 2019 to demand restoration of special status, reinforced a narrative of alienation that hindered economic normalization in the Kashmir Valley prior to the abrogation of Article 370. This grievance-centric discourse, shared among splinter regional parties, correlated with stagnant growth metrics, including the Valley's per capita net state domestic product lagging national averages at under 5% annual real growth from 2011-2019 amid recurrent unrest, as opposed to broader Indian states exceeding 6%.^[12][72] Following the 2019 constitutional changes reorganizing Jammu and Kashmir as union territories, ANC's adherence to pre-abrogation demands without adapting to enhanced democratic centralism—evident in its participation in the 2024 assembly elections where it secured negligible votes, such as 434 in Beerwah constituency—rendered it electorally marginal, underscoring a strategic failure to evolve amid voter shifts toward development-oriented integration. Post-2019 data indicate improved security and sectoral gains, with tourism arrivals surging over 200% by 2023 and projected GSDP growth at 7.06% for 2024-25, yet ANC's oppositional stance perpetuated symbolic divisions, delaying full perceptual alignment with national frameworks.^[73][72] Interpretations diverge: proponents framing ANC's positions as legitimate resistance to centralization attribute prolonged regional tensions to institutional overreach, while critics, citing verifiable declines in militancy incidents post-2019 (from over 500 in 2018 to under 100 by 2023), argue such parties obstructed unity by amplifying outdated narratives over pragmatic governance, empirically verifiable through sustained low turnout in boycott-aligned protests versus rising participation in 2024 polls exceeding 63%.^[74]