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Fred Singer

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Siegfried Fred Singer (September 27, 1924 – April 6, 2020)[1][2] was an Austrian-born American physicist and emeritus professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia,[3] trained as an atmospheric physicist. He was known for rejecting the scientific consensus on several issues, including climate change,[4][5][6] the connection between UV-B exposure and melanoma rates,[7] stratospheric ozone loss being caused by chlorofluoro compounds, often used as refrigerants,[8] and the health risks of passive smoking.

Key Information

He is the author or editor of several books, including Global Effects of Environmental Pollution (1970), The Ocean in Human Affairs (1989), Global Climate Change (1989), The Greenhouse Debate Continued (1992), and Hot Talk, Cold Science (1997). He also co-authored Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years (2007) with Dennis Avery, and Climate Change Reconsidered (2009) with Craig Idso.[9][10]

Singer had a varied career, serving in the armed forces, government, and academia. He designed mines for the U.S. Navy during World War II, before obtaining his Ph.D. in physics from Princeton University in 1948 and working as a scientific liaison officer in the U.S. Embassy in London.[11] He became a leading figure in early space research, was involved in the development of earth observation satellites, and in 1962 established the National Weather Bureau's Satellite Service Center. He was the founding dean of the University of Miami School of Environmental and Planetary Sciences in 1964, and held several government positions, including deputy assistant administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency, and chief scientist for the Department of Transportation. He held a professorship with the University of Virginia from 1971 until 1994, and with George Mason University until 2000.[9][12]

In 1990 Singer founded the Science & Environmental Policy Project,[9][13] and in 2006 was named by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation as one of a minority of scientists said to be creating a stand-off on a consensus on climate change.[14][15] Singer argued, contrary to the scientific consensus on climate change, that there is no evidence that global warming is attributable to human-caused increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, and that humanity would benefit if temperatures do rise.[16] He was an opponent of the Kyoto Protocol, and claimed that climate models are not based on reality or evidence.[17] Singer was accused of rejecting peer-reviewed and independently confirmed scientific evidence in his claims concerning public health and environmental issues.[9][14][18][19]

Early life and education

[edit]

Singer was born in Vienna, Austria, to a Jewish family. His father was a jeweler and his mother a homemaker. Following the Anschluss between Nazi Germany and Austria in 1938, the family fled Austria, and Singer departed on a children's transport train with other Jewish children. He ended up in England, where he lived in Northumberland, working for a time as a teenage optician. Several years later he emigrated to Ohio and became an American citizen in 1944.[9][20] He received a Bachelor of Electrical Engineering (B.E.E.) from Ohio State University in 1943. He taught physics at Princeton while he worked on his masters and his doctorate, obtaining his Ph.D. there in 1948.[1] His doctoral thesis was titled, "The density spectrum and latitude dependence of extensive cosmic ray air showers."[21] His supervisor was John Archibald Wheeler, and his thesis committee included J. Robert Oppenheimer and Niels Bohr.[22]

Career

[edit]

1950: United States Navy

[edit]

After his masters, Singer joined the armed forces, working for the United States Navy on mine warfare and countermeasures from 1944 until 1946. While with the Naval Ordnance Laboratory he developed an arithmetic element for an electronic digital calculator that he called an "electronic brain". He was discharged in 1946 and joined the Upper Atmosphere Rocket Program at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Silver Spring, Maryland, working there until 1950. He focused on ozone, cosmic rays, and the ionosphere, all measured using balloons and rockets launched from White Sands, New Mexico, or from ships out at sea. Rachel White Scheuering writes that for one mission to launch a rocket, he sailed with a naval operation to the Arctic, and also conducted rocket launching from ships at the equator.[9]

From 1950 to 1953, he was attached to the U.S. Embassy in London as a scientific liaison officer with the Office of Naval Research, where he studied research programs in Europe into cosmic radiation and nuclear physics.[23] While there, he was one of eight delegates with a background in guided weapons projects to address the Fourth International Congress of Astronautics in Zurich in August 1953, at a time when, as The New York Times reported, most scientists saw space flight as thinly disguised science fiction.[24]

1951: Design of early satellites

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Singer's MOUSE satellite, which he designed in the early 1950s[25]

Singer was one of the first scientists to urge the launching of Earth satellites for scientific observation during the 1950s.[26] In 1951 or 1952 he proposed the MOUSE ("Minimal Orbital Unmanned Satellite, Earth"), a 100 pounds (45 kg) satellite that would contain Geiger counters for measuring cosmic rays, photo cells for scanning the Earth, telemetry electronics for sending data back to Earth, a magnetic data storage device, and rudimentary solar energy cells. Although MOUSE never flew, the Baltimore News-Post reported in 1957 that had Singer's arguments about the need for satellites been heeded, the U.S. could have beaten Russia by launching the first Earth satellite.[25] He also proposed (along with R. C. Wentworth) that satellite measurement of ultraviolet backscatter could be used as a method to measure atmospheric ozone profiles.[27] This technique was later used on early weather satellites.[28]

1953: University of Maryland

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Singer moved back to the United States in 1953, where he took up an associate professorship in physics at the University of Maryland, and at the same time served as the director of the Center for Atmospheric and Space Physics. Scheuering writes that his work involved conducting experiments on rockets and satellites, remote sensing, radiation belts, the magnetosphere, and meteorites. He developed a new method of launching rockets into space: firing them from a high-flying plane, both with and without a pilot. The Navy adopted the idea and Singer supervised the project. He received a White House Special Commendation from President Eisenhower in 1954 for his work.[9]

He became one of 12 board members of the American Astronautical Society, an organization formed in 1954 to represent the country's 300 leading scientists and engineers in the area of guided missiles—he was one of seven members of the board to resign in December 1956 after a series of disputes about the direction and control of the group.[29]

In November 1957 Singer and other scientists at the university successfully designed and fired three new "Oriole" rockets off the Virginia Capes. The rockets weighed less than 25 pounds (11 kg) and could be built for around $2000. Fired from a converted Navy LSM, they could reach an altitude of 50,000 feet (15,000 m) and had a complete telemetry system to send back information on cosmic, ultraviolet and X-rays. Singer said that the firings placed "the exploration of outer space with high altitude rockets on the same basis, cost-wise and effort-wise, as low atmosphere measurements with weather balloons. From now on, we can fire thousands of these rockets all over the world with very little cost."[30]

In February 1958, when he was head of the cosmic ray group of the University of Maryland's physics department, he received a special commendation from President Eisenhower for "outstanding achievements in the development of satellites for scientific purposes."[31][32] In April 1958, he was appointed as a consultant to the House Select Committee on Astronautics and Space Exploration, which was preparing to hold hearings on President Eisenhower's proposal for a new agency to handle space research, and a month later received the Ohio State University's Distinguished Alumnus Award.[33] He became a full professor at Maryland in 1959, and was chosen that year by the United States Junior Chamber of Commerce as one of the country's ten outstanding young men.[34]

In a January 1960 presentation to the American Physical Society, Singer sketched out his vision of what the environment around the Earth might consist of, extending up to 40,000 miles (64,000 km) into space.[35] He became known for his early predictions about the properties of the electrical particles trapped around the Earth, which were partly verified by later discoveries in satellite experiments. In December 1960, he suggested the existence of a shell of visible dust particles around the Earth some 600 to 1,000 miles (1,600 km) in space, beyond which there was a layer of smaller particles, a micrometre or less in diameter, extending 2,000 to 4,000 miles (6,400 km).[36] In March 1961 Singer and another University of Maryland physicist, E. J. Opik, were given a $97,000 grant by NASA to conduct a three-year study of interplanetary gas and dust.[37]

1960: Artificial Phobos hypothesis

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In a 1960 Astronautics newsletter, Singer commented on Iosif Shklovsky's hypothesis[38][39] that the orbit of the Martian moon Phobos suggests that it is hollow, which implies it is of artificial origin. Singer wrote: "My conclusion there is, and here I back Shklovsky, that if the satellite is indeed spiraling inward as deduced from astronomical observation, then there is little alternative to the hypothesis that it is hollow and therefore martian made. The big 'if' lies in the astronomical observations; they may well be in error. Since they are based on several independent sets of measurements taken decades apart by different observers with different instruments, systematic errors may have influenced them."[40] Later measurements confirmed Singer's big "if" caveat: Shklovsky overestimated Phobos' rate of altitude loss due to bad early data.[41] Photographs by probes beginning in 1972 show a natural stony surface with craters.[42] Ufologists continue to present Singer as an unconditional supporter of Shklovsky's artificial Phobos hypothesis.[43]

Time magazine wrote in 1969 that Singer had had a lifelong fascination with Phobos and Mars's second moon, Deimos. He told Time it might be possible to pull Deimos into the Earth's orbit so it could be examined.[44][45] During an international space symposium in May 1966, attended by space scientists from the United States and Soviet Union, he first proposed that crewed landings on the Martian moons would be a logical step after a crewed landing on the Earth's Moon. He pointed out that the very small sizes of Phobos and Deimos—approximately fourteen and eight miles (23 and 13 km) in diameter and sub milli-g surface gravity—would make it easier for a spacecraft to land and take off again.[46]

1962: National Weather Center and University of Miami

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In 1962, on leave from the university, Singer was named as the first director of meteorological satellite services for the National Weather Satellite Center, now part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and directed a program for using satellites to forecast the weather.[26] He stayed there until 1964. He told Time magazine in 1969 that he enjoyed moving around. "Each move gave me a completely new perspective," he said. "If I had sat still, I'd probably still be measuring cosmic rays, the subject of my thesis at Princeton. That's what happens to most scientists."[44] When he stepped down as director he received a Department of Commerce Gold Medal award for Distinguished Federal Service.[47]

In 1964, he became the first dean of the School of Environmental and Planetary Sciences at the University of Miami in 1964, the first school of its kind in the country, dedicated to space-age research.[48] In December 1965, The New York Times reported on a conference Singer hosted in Miami Beach during which five groups of scientists, working independently, presented research identifying what they believed was the remains of a primordial flash that occurred when the universe was born.[49]

1967–1994

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In 1967 he accepted the position of deputy assistant secretary with the U.S. Department of the Interior, where he was in charge of water quality and research. When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was created on 1970, he became its deputy assistant administrator of policy.[50]

Singer accepted a professorship in Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia in 1971, a position he held until 1994,[51] where he taught classes on environmental issues such as ozone depletion, acid rain, climate change, population growth, and public policy issues related to oil and energy.[citation needed] In 1987 he took up a two-year post as chief scientist at the U.S. Department of Transportation, and in 1989 joined the Institute of Space Science and Technology in Gainesville, Florida where he contributed to a paper on the results from the Interplanetary Dust Experiment using data from the Long Duration Exposure Facility satellite.[9][52] When he retired from Virginia in 1994, he became Distinguished Research Professor at the Institute for Humane Studies at George Mason University until 2000.[53]

Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway say that Singer was involved in the Reagan administration's efforts to prevent regulatory action to reduce acid rain.[54]

Public debates

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Writing

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Throughout his academic career Singer wrote frequently in the mainstream press, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal, often striking up positions disputing mainstream thinking. His overall position was one of distrust of federal regulations and a strong belief in the efficacy of the free market. He believed in what Rachel White Scheuering calls "free-market environmentalism": that market principles and incentives should be sufficient to lead to the protection of the environment and conservation of resources.[9] Regular themes in his articles have been energy, oil embargoes, OPEC, Iran, and rising prices. Throughout the 1970s, for example, he downplayed the idea of an energy crisis and said it was largely a media event.[9][55] In several papers in the 1990s and 2000s he struck up other positions against the mainstream, questioning the link between UV-B and melanoma rates, and that between CFCs and stratospheric ozone loss.[7]

In October 1967, Singer wrote an article for The Washington Post from the perspective of 2007. His predictions included that planets had been explored but not colonized, and although rockets had become more powerful they had not replaced aircraft and ramjet vehicles. None of the fundamental laws of physics had been overturned. There was increased reliance on the electronic computer and data processor; the most exciting development was the increase in human intellect by direct electronic storage of information in the brain—the coupling of the brain to an external computer, thereby gaining direct access to an information library.[56]

He debated the astronomer Carl Sagan on ABC's Nightline, regarding the possible environmental effects of the Kuwaiti oil fires. Sagan argued that if enough fire-fighting teams were not assembled in short order, and if many fires were left to burn over a period of months to possibly a year, the smoke might loft into the upper atmosphere and lead to massive agricultural failures over South Asia. Singer argued that it would rise to 3,000 feet (910 m) then be rained out after a few days.[57] In fact, both Sagan and Singer were incorrect; smoke plumes from the fires rose to 10,000–12,000 feet and lingered for nearly a month,[58] but despite absorbing 75–80% of the sun's radiation in the Persian Gulf area the plumes had little global effect.[59]

The public debates in which Singer received most criticism have been about second-hand smoke and global warming. He questioned the link between second-hand smoke and lung cancer, and was an outspoken opponent of the mainstream scientific view on climate change; he argued there is no evidence that increases in carbon dioxide produced by human beings is causing global warming and that the temperature of the Earth has always varied.[16] A CBC Fifth Estate documentary in 2006 linked these two debates, naming Singer as a scientist who has acted as a consultant to industry in both areas, either directly or through a public relations firm.[14] Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway named Singer in their book, Merchants of Doubt, as one of three contrarian physicists—along with Fred Seitz and Bill Nierenberg—who regularly injected themselves into the public debate about contentious scientific issues, positioning themselves as skeptics, their views gaining traction because the media gives them equal time out of a sense of fairness.[60]

Second-hand smoke

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According to David Biello and John Pavlus in Scientific American, Singer was best known for his denial of the health risks of passive smoking.[61] He was involved in 1994 as writer and reviewer of a report on the issue by the Alexis de Tocqueville Institution, where he was a senior fellow.[62] The report criticized the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for their 1993 study about the cancer risks of passive smoking, calling it "junk science". Singer told CBC's The Fifth Estate in 2006 that he stood by the position that the EPA had "cooked the data" to show that second-hand smoke causes lung cancer. CBC said that tobacco money had paid for Singer's research and for his promotion of it, and that it was organized by APCO. Singer told CBC it made no difference where the money came from. "They don't carry a note on a dollar bill saying 'This comes from the tobacco industry,'" he said. "In any case I was not aware of it, and I didn't ask APCO where they get their money. That's not my business."[14]

Global warming

[edit]

In a 2003 letter to the Financial Times, Singer wrote that "there is no convincing evidence that the global climate is actually warming."[63] In 2006, the CBC's Fifth Estate named Singer as one of a small group of scientists who have created what the documentary called a stand-off that is undermining the political response to global warming.[14] The following year he appeared on the British Channel 4 documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle.[64] Singer argues there is no evidence that the increases in carbon dioxide produced by humans cause global warming, and that if temperatures do rise it will be good for humankind. He told CBC: "It was warmer a thousand years ago than it is today. Vikings settled Greenland. Is that good or bad? I think it's good. They grew wine in England, in northern England. I think that's good. At least some people think so."[65] "We are certainly putting more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," he told The Daily Telegraph in 2009. "However there is no evidence that this high CO2 is making a detectable difference. It should in principle, however the atmosphere is very complicated and one cannot simply argue that just because CO2 is a greenhouse gas it causes warming."[16] He believes that radical environmentalists are exaggerating the dangers. "The underlying effort here seems to be to use global warming as an excuse to cut down the use of energy," he said. "It's very simple: if you cut back the use of energy, then you cut back economic growth. And believe it or not, there are people in the world who believe we have gone too far in economic growth."[9]

Singers's opinions conflict with the scientific consensus on climate change,[66][67] where there is overwhelming consensus for anthropogenic global warming, and a decisive link between carbon dioxide concentration and global average temperatures, as well as consensus that such a change to the climate will have dangerous consequences.[68][69] In 2005, Mother Jones magazine described Singer as a "godfather of global warming denial."[70] However, Singer characterized himself as a "skeptic" rather than a "denier" of global climate change.

SEPP and funding

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In 1990 Singer set up the Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) to argue against preventive measures against global warming. After the 1991 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, the Earth Summit, Singer started writing and speaking out to cast doubt on the science. He predicted disastrous economic damage from any restrictions on fossil fuel use, and argued that the natural world and its weather patterns are complex and ill-understood, and that little is known about the dynamics of heat exchange from the oceans to the atmosphere, or the role of clouds. As the scientific consensus grew, he continued to argue from a dismissive position.[9] He has repeatedly criticized the climate models that predict global warming. In 1994 he compared model results to observed temperatures and found that the predicted temperatures for 1950–1980 deviated from the temperatures that had actually occurred, from which he concluded in his regular column in The Washington Times—with the headline that day "Climate Claims Wither under the Luminous Lights of Science"—that climate models are faulty. In 2007 he collaborated on a study that found tropospheric temperature trends of "Climate of the 20th Century" models differed from satellite observations by twice the model mean uncertainty.[71]

Rachel White Scheuering writes that, when SEPP began, it was affiliated with the Washington Institute for Values in Public Policy, a think tank founded by Unification Church leader Sun Myung Moon.[9] A 1990 article for the Cato Institute identifies Singer as the director of the science and environmental policy project at the Washington Institute for Values in Public Policy, on leave from the University of Virginia.[72] Scheuering writes that Singer had cut ties with the institute, and was funded by foundations and oil companies.[9] She writes that he was a paid consultant for many years for ARCO, ExxonMobil, Shell, Sun Oil Company, and Unocal, and that SEPP had received grants from ExxonMobil. Singer said his financial relationships did not influence his research. Scheuering argues that his conclusions concur with the economic interests of the companies that pay him, in that the companies want to see a reduction in environmental regulation.[9]

In August 2007 Newsweek reported that in April 1998 a dozen people from what it called "the denial machine" met at the American Petroleum Institute's Washington headquarters. The meeting included Singer's group, the George C. Marshall Institute, and ExxonMobil. Newsweek said that, according to an eight-page memo that was leaked, the meeting proposed a $5-million campaign to convince the public that the science of global warming was controversial and uncertain. The plan was leaked to the press and never implemented.[73] The week after the story, Newsweek published a contrary view from Robert Samuelson, one of its columnists, who said the story of an industry-funded denial machine was contrived and fundamentally misleading.[74] ABC News reported in March 2008 that Singer said he is not on the payroll of the energy industry, but he acknowledged that SEPP had received one unsolicited charitable donation of $10,000 from ExxonMobil, and that it was one percent of all donations received. Singer said that his connection to Exxon was more like being on their mailing list than holding a paid position.[75] The relationships have discredited Singer's research among members of the scientific community, according to Scheuering. Congresswoman Lynn Rivers questioned Singer's credibility during a congressional hearing in 1995, saying he had not been able to publish anything in a peer-reviewed scientific journal for the previous 15 years, except for one technical comment.[9][76]

Criticism of the IPCC

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In 1995 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report reflecting the scientific consensus that the balance of evidence suggests there is a discernible human influence on global climate. Singer responded with a letter to Science saying the IPCC report had presented material selectively. He wrote: "the Summary does not even mention the existence of 18 years of weather satellite data that show a slight global cooling trend, contradicting all theoretical models of climate warming."[77] Scheuering writes that Singer acknowledges the surface thermometers from weather stations show warming, but he argues that the satellites provide better data because their measurements cover pole to pole.[9] According to Edward Parson and Andrew Dessler, the satellite data did not show surface temperatures directly, but had to be adjusted using models. When adjustment was made for transient events the data showed a slight warming, and research suggested that the discrepancy between surface and satellite data was largely accounted for by problems such as instrument differences between satellites.[78]

Singer wrote the "Leipzig Declaration on Global Climate Change in the U.S." in 1995, updating it in 1997 to rebut the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol was the result of an international convention held in Kyoto, Japan, during which several industrialized nations agreed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Singer's declaration read: "Energy is essential for economic growth ... We understand the motivation to eliminate what are perceived to be the driving forces behind a potential climate change; but we believe the Kyoto Protocol—to curtail carbon dioxide emissions from only a part of the world community—is dangerously simplistic, quite ineffective, and economically destructive to jobs and standards-of-living."[9]

Scheuering writes that Singer circulated this in the United States and Europe and gathered 100 signatories, though she says some of the signatories' credentials were questioned. At least 20 were television weather reporters, some did not have science degrees, and 14 were listed as professors without specifying a field. According to Scheuering, some of them later said they believed they were signing a document in favour of action against climate change.[9]

Singer set up the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) in 2004 after the 2003 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Milan. NIPCC organized an international climate workshop in Vienna in April 2007,[79] to provide what they called an independent examination of the evidence for climate change.[80] Singer prepared an NIPCC report called "Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate," published in March 2008 by the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank.[79] ABC News said the same month that unnamed climate scientists from NASA, Stanford, and Princeton who spoke to ABC about the report dismissed it as "fabricated nonsense". In a letter of complaint to ABC News, Singer said their piece used "prejudicial language, distorted facts, libelous insinuations, and anonymous smears".[75]

On September 18, 2013, the NIPCC's fourth report, entitled Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science, was published.[81] As with previous NIPCC reports, environmentalists criticized it upon its publication; for example, David Suzuki wrote that it was "full of long-discredited claims, including that carbon dioxide emissions are good because they stimulate life".[82] After the report received favorable coverage from Fox News Channel's Doug McKelway,[83] climate scientists Kevin Trenberth and Michael Oppenheimer criticized this coverage, with Trenberth calling it "irresponsible journalism" and Oppenheimer calling it "flat out wrong".[84]

Climategate

[edit]

In December 2009, after the Climatic Research Unit email controversy, Singer wrote an opinion piece for Reuters in which he claimed the scientists had misused peer review, pressured editors to prevent publication of alternative views, and smeared opponents. He also claimed the leaked e-mails showed that the "surface temperature data that IPCC relies on is based on distorted raw data and algorithms that they will not share with the science community." He argued that the incident exposed a flawed process, and that the temperature trends were heading downwards even as greenhouse gases like CO2 were increasing in the atmosphere. He wrote: "This negative correlation contradicts the results of the models that IPCC relies on and indicates that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is quite small," concluding "and now it turns out that global warming might have been 'man made' after all."[85] A British House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee later issued a report that exonerated the scientists,[86] and eight committees investigated the allegations, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct.[87]

Death

[edit]

On April 6, 2020, Singer died in a nursing home in Rockville, Maryland.[1][2]

Selected publications

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  • Global Effects of Environmental Pollution (Reidel, 1970)
  • Manned Laboratories in Space (Reidel, 1970)
  • Is There an Optimum Level of Population? (McGraw-Hill, 1971)
  • The Changing Global Environment (Reidel, 1975)
  • Arid Zone Development (Ballinger, 1977)
  • Economic Effects of Demographic Changes (Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, 1977)
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis in Environmental Decisionmaking (Mitre Corp, 1979)
  • Energy (W.H. Freeman, 1979)
  • The Price of World Oil (Annual Review of Energy, Vol. 8, 1983)
  • Free Market Energy (Universe Books, 1984)
  • Oil Policy in a Changing Market (Annual Review of Energy, Vol. 12, 1987)
  • The Ocean in Human Affairs (Paragon House, 1989)
  • The Universe and Its Origin: From Ancient Myths to Present Reality and Future Fantasy (Paragon House, 1990)
  • Global Climate Change: Human and Natural Influences (Paragon House, 1989)
  • The Greenhouse Debate Continued (ICS Press, 1992)
  • The Scientific Case Against the Global Climate Treaty (SEPP, 1997)
  • Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warming's Unfinished Debate (The Independent Institute, 1997)
  • with Dennis Avery. Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years (Rowman & Littlefield, 2007)
  • with Craig Idso. Climate Change Reconsidered: 2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) (2009).

See also

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Notes

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Further reading

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[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia
from Grokipedia
Siegfried Fred Singer (September 27, 1924 – April 6, 2020) was an Austrian-born American physicist renowned for his foundational work in atmospheric and space science.[1][2] He earned a Ph.D. in physics from Princeton University in 1948 and contributed to early developments in rocket instrumentation, proposing the Minimum Orbital Unmanned Satellite of the Earth (MOUSE) and advancing technologies for ionospheric measurements and weather satellites that enabled global earth observation.[3][4] Singer held key government positions, including Chief Scientist of the U.S. Department of Transportation and Vice Chairman of the National Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmospheres, and later served as professor emeritus at the University of Virginia.[3][5] In his later career, he founded the Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) and co-established the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), advocating based on empirical satellite data and historical records that climate variations are predominantly driven by natural solar and orbital forcings rather than anthropogenic CO2 emissions, positions that positioned him as a prominent challenger to prevailing alarmist narratives in environmental policy.[2][4][5]

Early Life and Education

Birth and Family Background

Siegfried Fred Singer was born on September 27, 1924, in Vienna, Austria, to a Jewish family.[1][6] His father, Joseph Singer, worked as a jeweler, while his mother, Anna Singer, served as a homemaker.[7][8] The family's circumstances reflected modest middle-class roots in pre-Anschluss Vienna, with the father's trade providing stability amid the interwar economic challenges facing many Jewish households in the city.[7]

Emigration and Early Challenges

Siegfried Fred Singer was born on September 27, 1924, in Vienna, Austria, to Jewish parents Joseph Singer, a jeweler, and Anna Singer, a homemaker.[7] Following the Nazi Anschluss on March 12, 1938, which incorporated Austria into the Third Reich and intensified antisemitic persecution, Singer's family arranged for the 13-year-old to flee via the Kindertransport program, an organized effort by British authorities and Jewish organizations that rescued about 10,000 predominantly Jewish children from Nazi-controlled territories between 1938 and 1939.[7][5] Singer traveled by train to England, where he was placed in a foster home and began learning English while adapting to life as a refugee amid the escalating tensions leading to World War II.[8] This period involved emotional strain from family separation, as his parents remained in peril initially, and practical difficulties in a foreign land with limited resources and uncertain future prospects.[5] In 1940, Singer emigrated to the United States, joining his parents who had also escaped to Columbus, Ohio, where relatives had settled.[9] Naturalized as a U.S. citizen in 1944, he faced ongoing challenges of cultural assimilation, mastering English fluency, and navigating economic instability typical of wartime Jewish refugees whose prior livelihoods, like his father's jewelry trade, had been disrupted by Nazi confiscations.[7][10] Despite these hurdles, Singer enrolled in high school in Columbus and accelerated his education, completing a Bachelor of Electrical Engineering at Ohio State University in 1943 at age 18.[9]

Formal Education and Initial Influences

Singer enrolled at Ohio State University after emigrating to the United States, completing a Bachelor of Electrical Engineering degree in 1943.[1][9] He transitioned to graduate studies in physics at Princeton University, earning a Master of Arts in 1944 and a Doctor of Philosophy in 1948.[1][9] During his doctoral candidacy, Singer taught briefly at Princeton from 1943 to 1944, gaining early instructional experience in physics.[9] His undergraduate training in electrical engineering laid a groundwork in applied technologies, which intersected with wartime demands; records indicate involvement in U.S. Navy mine design projects during World War II, bridging his engineering education with practical defense applications prior to completing his Ph.D.[7] This period at Princeton exposed Singer to advanced theoretical physics amid post-war scientific expansion, fostering interests in atmospheric and space-related phenomena that defined his subsequent research trajectory, though specific mentors remain undocumented in primary biographical accounts.[1][9]

Scientific Career

Military Service and Post-War Research

Singer enlisted in the United States Navy in 1944 and served until 1946, during which he worked on mine warfare technologies, including the design of naval mines and associated countermeasures.[11] His contributions involved early applications of computational methods, such as using an electronic computer for mine design optimization.[12] This service interrupted his academic pursuits but aligned with his emerging expertise in physics and engineering.[13] Following his discharge in 1946, Singer joined the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) as a physicist, remaining there until 1950.[9] At APL, he conducted pioneering high-altitude research using captured V-2 rockets and the newly developed Aerobee sounding rockets, which enabled measurements of upper atmospheric conditions, including ionospheric properties and cosmic radiation.[14] These experiments marked early post-war advancements in geophysical rocketry, providing data on phenomena such as auroral activity and solar influences on the atmosphere.[2] His work at APL bridged military applications of rocketry to civilian scientific inquiry, laying groundwork for subsequent satellite instrumentation.[15]

Contributions to Rocketry and Satellite Instrumentation

Following World War II, Singer joined the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) of Johns Hopkins University, where he participated in early high-altitude rocket experiments using captured V-2 rockets launched from White Sands Proving Ground between May 1946 and February 1949.[14] These efforts involved measuring cosmic ray intensity and specific ionization above the atmosphere.[14] He extended this work to Aerobee sounding rockets, with the first successful flight on November 24, 1947, continuing through February 1951, focusing on zenith angle dependence of cosmic rays and primary cosmic-ray spectrum determinations, including geomagnetic equator measurements via shipboard launches off Peru and the Gulf of Alaska in 1949-1950.[14] In 1953, Singer proposed the Minimum Orbital Unmanned Satellite of the Earth (MOUSE), a concept derived from high-altitude sounding rocket research, aimed at launching a small, simple satellite to study upper atmospheric phenomena and cosmic radiation beyond rocket altitudes.[8] This initiative highlighted early visionary thinking in transitioning from suborbital rocketry to orbital satellite platforms for sustained instrumentation.[8] Singer contributed to satellite instrumentation by inventing the backscatter photometer, an ozone-monitoring device deployed on early U.S. weather satellites to measure stratospheric ozone profiles via ultraviolet backscatter techniques.[1] His 1957 paper outlined methods for determining vertical ozone distribution from satellite observations, laying groundwork for remote sensing applications.[16] Additionally, Singer performed pioneering calculations for the effects of general relativity on atomic clocks in orbit, predicting time dilation impacts that informed satellite clock designs and contributed to verifying Einstein's theory through systems like GPS.[17] These efforts bridged rocketry's empirical data with theoretical instrumentation requirements for precise space-based timing.[17]

Academic and Research Positions

Singer began his academic career at the University of Maryland, where he held faculty appointments from 1953 to 1964, focusing on physics and atmospheric research.[13] Following this, he served as the founding dean of the University of Miami's School of Environmental and Planetary Sciences from 1964 to 1971, establishing the program amid growing interest in space and environmental sciences.[13][4] In 1971, Singer accepted a professorship in environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, a position he maintained until 1994, during which he contributed to teaching and research on atmospheric physics and planetary science.[8] He retained emeritus status at the University of Virginia thereafter, continuing affiliations with its Department of Environmental Sciences.[3][1] Later in his career, Singer held a distinguished research professorship at George Mason University until 2000, alongside research fellowships at organizations such as the Independent Institute.[18]

Key Scientific Achievements

Ionospheric and Atmospheric Research

Singer conducted pioneering measurements of the upper atmosphere using captured German V-2 rockets launched from White Sands, New Mexico, beginning in 1946, focusing on ozone concentrations, cosmic rays, and ionospheric properties.[19] These experiments provided early empirical data on atmospheric composition at altitudes exceeding 100 km, where ground-based observations were limited.[8] In subsequent work with Aerobee rockets, Singer investigated ionospheric currents near the geomagnetic equator, reporting evidence of dynamo currents driven by tidal winds in rocket-borne magnetometer data from flights in the early 1950s.[20] This contributed to understanding equatorial electrodynamics, including the Sq current system, through direct in-situ measurements that complemented ground-based ionosonde records. He also employed rockoon techniques—balloon-launched rockets—to extend observations of cosmic radiation and its ionization effects in the D-region of the ionosphere.[21] Singer's atmospheric research extended to ozone profiling, where he utilized ultraviolet spectrometers on high-altitude rockets in the late 1940s to quantify stratospheric ozone distribution, laying groundwork for later satellite-based monitoring instruments he helped develop.[22] These efforts advanced models of radiative balance and photochemical processes, with data indicating ozone peaks around 25-30 km altitude consistent with subsequent validations.[23] His ionospheric studies emphasized empirical validation over theoretical assumptions, including correlations between solar activity, cosmic ray fluxes, and electron density variations, influencing early space weather predictions.[8] By the mid-1950s, Singer integrated rocket data with balloon soundings to map atmospheric density profiles up to 50 km, aiding trajectory calculations for emerging satellite programs.[24]

Development of Scientific Instruments for Space

In the early 1950s, Singer conducted pioneering measurements of cosmic rays, ozone, and ionospheric properties using rocket-borne and balloon-launched instruments deployed from sites such as White Sands, New Mexico, and ocean vessels.[8] These efforts represented some of the initial post-World War II applications of captured V-2 and Aerobee rockets for upper-atmospheric research, enabling direct sampling beyond the reach of ground-based observatories.[25] Singer devised the foundational technique for remote measurement of stratospheric ozone concentrations via ultraviolet backscatter from satellites, a method that utilized reflected solar UV radiation to infer ozone levels without direct sampling.[25] This approach, proposed in the 1950s, laid the groundwork for instruments later integrated into operational weather satellites, providing global monitoring capabilities that surpassed earlier rocket-based sporadic observations.[8] He also developed the core instrumentation for stratospheric ozone detection, which relied on photoelectric sensors to quantify UV absorption in the atmosphere.[18] In 1953, Singer proposed the Minimum Orbital Unmanned Satellite of the Earth (MOUSE), a compact 100-pound (45 kg) satellite design presented at the fourth Congress of the International Astronautical Federation in Zurich.[8] [26] The MOUSE incorporated Geiger counters for cosmic ray detection, photocells for Earth imaging, solar cells for power, magnetic tape for data storage, and radio telemetry for transmission, aiming to achieve low-Earth orbit for continuous scientific data collection.[8] Though not launched, the concept influenced subsequent small-satellite designs and highlighted Singer's emphasis on minimalist, cost-effective platforms for space-based instrumentation.[26] By November 1957, amid the International Geophysical Year, Singer contributed to the "Oriole" series of lightweight sounding rockets, each under 25 pounds (11 kg) and capable of reaching 50,000 feet (15 km), equipped with telemetry systems to relay data on cosmic rays, ultraviolet radiation, and X-rays from the upper atmosphere.[8] These instruments advanced real-time payload miniaturization, paving the way for more robust satellite-borne sensors in subsequent U.S. space programs.[8]

Theoretical Hypotheses in Planetary Science

Singer proposed the capture theory as the origin of the Moon, positing that it formed independently in the solar system before being gravitationally captured by Earth during a close encounter.[27] This hypothesis accounted for the Moon's low density and compositional differences from Earth, suggesting it originated from material in the asteroid belt or beyond, rather than from Earth's mantle as in fission or co-accretion models.[28] Under this scenario, capture occurred when the proto-Earth's gravitational field perturbed the Moon's orbit, leading to tidal locking and the eventual stabilization of the Earth-Moon system over billions of years.[29] The theory implied significant dynamical consequences, including enhanced tidal heating and orbital evolution that differentiated Earth's geological and climatic history from neighboring planets like Venus and Mars.[28] Singer argued that capture explained the absence of a large moon around Venus, attributing Venus's lack of satellite to its slower rotation and weaker tidal interactions, which reduced the probability of retaining a captured body.[27] Similarly, he extended the capture mechanism to explain the origins of Mars's moons, Phobos and Deimos, suggesting they were asteroids captured during perihelion passages influenced by planetary perturbations.[27] In 1971, Singer advanced a hypothesis for Venus's retrograde rotation and axial wobble, proposing that a close encounter with a massive body—possibly a planetesimal or disrupted satellite—imparted the observed spin characteristics through gravitational torque.[30] This model challenged earlier explanations reliant on solar tidal despinning or internal dynamo effects, emphasizing external dynamical interactions as the causal factor for Venus's 243-day sidereal rotation period, opposite to its orbital direction.[30] These hypotheses underscored Singer's emphasis on capture and perturbation events as key processes in solar system evolution, drawing on observational data from early space missions and geophysical modeling.[28]

Policy Involvement and Advocacy

Government Roles in Science Administration

S. Fred Singer served as the first director of the U.S. National Weather Satellite Service from 1962 to 1964, where he oversaw the initial operationalization of meteorological satellites for weather observation and data collection under the Weather Bureau, a predecessor to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).[7][8] In this role, Singer managed the integration of satellite instrumentation into national weather forecasting systems, building on his prior expertise in rocket and upper-atmosphere research to advance remote sensing technologies for environmental monitoring.[13] From 1967 to 1970, Singer held the position of deputy assistant secretary for water quality and research at the U.S. Department of the Interior, directing programs on estuarine pollution studies that informed federal environmental policy on water resources and contamination.[7][18] His responsibilities included coordinating interdisciplinary research efforts to assess pollution impacts, emphasizing empirical data over regulatory assumptions, which later influenced debates on environmental causation.[4] Singer also served as deputy assistant administrator at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), contributing to early administrative frameworks for atmospheric and pollution oversight.[31] In the early 1980s, he acted as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmospheres (NACOA), advising on federal oceanographic and atmospheric science policies, including satellite applications and climate-related data interpretation.[18][32] From 1987 to 1989, Singer was chief scientist at the U.S. Department of Transportation, focusing on scientific assessments of transportation impacts on the environment and integrating geophysical data into infrastructure planning.[7][2] These roles positioned him at the intersection of scientific administration and policy, where he advocated for data-driven decision-making amid emerging regulatory pressures on environmental issues.[8]

Establishment of Independent Research Organizations

In 1990, S. Fred Singer established the Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP), an independent nonprofit organization focused on scrutinizing environmental policies through rigorous scientific analysis, particularly challenging assertions Singer viewed as unsupported by empirical data, such as exaggerated risks from global warming and stratospheric ozone depletion.[33] SEPP's mission emphasized first-principles evaluation of observational evidence over predictive models or consensus-driven narratives, aiming to inform policymakers with alternative assessments derived from peer-reviewed literature and direct measurements. Singer served as SEPP's founding director and president, relocating the organization to Fairfax, Virginia, following his retirement from the University of Virginia.[7] SEPP was formally incorporated as a 501(c)(3) entity in 1992, enabling it to conduct research, publish reports, and host seminars without reliance on government funding, thereby maintaining independence from institutional pressures prevalent in academia and federal agencies.[34] Through SEPP, Singer coordinated efforts to compile critiques of mainstream environmental science, including analyses questioning the causal links between human activities and purported environmental crises, often highlighting discrepancies between satellite data and surface measurements. In the early 2000s, Singer convened the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), an ad hoc assembly of scientists affiliated with SEPP, explicitly designed as a counterpoint to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).[35] The NIPCC's inaugural report, released in 2008, reviewed thousands of studies to argue that natural variability, rather than anthropogenic greenhouse gases, predominantly drives climate changes, drawing on empirical trends like tropospheric temperature stasis despite rising CO2 levels.[36] Subsequent NIPCC assessments, updated periodically, maintained this focus on data-driven rebuttals, underscoring methodological flaws in IPCC processes, such as selective data inclusion and overreliance on unverified projections.[2] These initiatives positioned SEPP and NIPCC as platforms for dissenting voices, funded primarily through private donations to avoid conflicts inherent in public grants.[37]

Engagement with Environmental Policy Debates

Singer founded the Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) in 1990 to scrutinize government environmental policies, advocating for decisions rooted in verifiable scientific evidence rather than unproven projections or consensus claims.[33] Through SEPP, he critiqued regulatory approaches to issues including ozone depletion, acid rain, and radon risks, arguing that such policies often imposed unnecessary economic costs without addressing causal mechanisms adequately supported by data.[4] The organization produced analyses and newsletters to inform policymakers and the public, emphasizing discrepancies between alarmist predictions and observed trends.[33] In 2007, Singer established the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) under SEPP auspices, which issued reports countering United Nations IPCC assessments by highlighting empirical data on natural climate drivers and model limitations, thereby influencing debates on emission controls and energy policy.[33] These efforts aimed to promote cost-benefit analyses in regulation, warning that policies like the Kyoto Protocol lacked justification from surface temperature records or satellite measurements showing no unprecedented warming.[38] Singer testified before U.S. congressional committees on environmental matters, including ozone policy and climate impacts, where he urged caution against hasty regulations. For example, in 1995 congressional discussions on chlorofluorocarbon phase-outs under the Montreal Protocol, he highlighted instrument data indicating ozone levels were recovering naturally and questioned the attribution of Antarctic depletion solely to human emissions.[39] During 1997 Senate hearings on global climate change, he presented evidence of solar variability as a dominant factor, arguing against binding targets that ignored historical cycles.[38] In 2007 House testimony on climate science, he reiterated that greenhouse gas forcings did not align with observed lack of tropospheric warming, advocating adaptive strategies over mitigation mandates.[40] His interventions sought to elevate first-hand data over theoretical models in policy formulation.[4]

Positions on Environmental Issues

Skepticism Regarding Ozone Depletion

S. Fred Singer questioned the prevailing attribution of stratospheric ozone depletion primarily to anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), emphasizing natural variability and alternative causal factors. He contended that observed ozone fluctuations, including the Antarctic "ozone hole," aligned more closely with periodic solar activity cycles, such as the 11-year sunspot cycle, and episodic volcanic injections of chlorine and sulfur aerosols into the stratosphere, rather than steady CFC accumulation.[41] For instance, Singer highlighted the 1982 eruption of El Chichón and the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, which temporarily increased stratospheric chlorine levels from natural sources by factors exceeding those from CFCs, correlating with enhanced ozone loss episodes.[42] In a 1993 correspondence published in Science, Singer critiqued the dominant catalytic depletion theory proposed by Molina and Rowland, arguing that it inadequately accounted for heterogeneous chemistry on polar stratospheric clouds and overestimated CFC impacts relative to natural chlorine reservoirs from sea salt and volcanoes.[43] He proposed that radiative cooling in the Antarctic vortex during spring, independent of halogens, drove the seasonal ozone minimum, predating widespread CFC use; historical balloon measurements from the 1950s and 1960s had already detected low ozone levels over Antarctica during austral spring.[43] [41] Singer further noted discrepancies in ground-based versus satellite ozone data, attributing some reported depletions to instrumental artifacts or calibration errors in devices like the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS).[44] Singer acknowledged laboratory evidence that CFCs could photodissociate to release chlorine atoms capable of catalyzing ozone destruction but maintained that atmospheric transport limited their delivery to the polar stratosphere, rendering their net effect negligible—estimated at less than 5% of total variability—compared to dynamic and radiative processes.[44] In 1994 testimony and writings, he asserted that over 80% of stratospheric chlorine originated from natural oceanic and volcanic emissions, not industrial CFCs, challenging models that projected irreversible depletion without phaseouts.[45] Through the Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP), founded in 1990, Singer advocated against hasty CFC regulations under the Montreal Protocol, warning that empirical recovery data post-1990s bans remained inconclusive amid confounding natural recoveries from reduced solar minima and quiescent volcanism.[4] He viewed the ozone scare as amplified by media and policy incentives, with early 1970s predictions of 2-7% annual depletion failing to materialize, as global ozone levels stabilized or slightly rebounded by the early 1990s.[42] [41]

Assessment of Acid Rain Causation

Singer contributed to the 1984 Acid Rain Peer Review Panel, where he applied benefit-cost analysis to question the established narrative on acid rain causation. He argued that the direct causal link between sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and widespread ecological damage—such as forest dieback and lake acidification—was uncertain and lacked robust empirical support. Instead, Singer emphasized natural sources of acidity, including volcanic emissions and oceanic sulfur cycles, as potentially significant contributors that were underrepresented in prevailing assessments.[46][47] In his analysis, Singer highlighted the absence of conclusive field data correlating emission reductions with reversal of purported acid rain effects, noting that many acidic water bodies exhibited naturally low pH levels predating industrial pollution increases. He critiqued models predicting severe transboundary impacts, advocating reliance on observational evidence over theoretical projections; for instance, isotope studies of sulfur deposits suggested a substantial biogenic or geological origin in certain regions, diluting the anthropogenic signal. This perspective challenged claims that human emissions accounted for the majority of wet and dry deposition acidity, positing instead that soil buffering capacity and local hydrology played decisive roles in observed vulnerabilities.[46][47] Singer's assessment extended to European cases, where forest decline attributed to acid rain often coincided with droughts, pests, and nutrient imbalances rather than precipitation chemistry alone. He contended that alarmist interpretations ignored baseline natural acidity (around pH 5.6 from dissolved carbon dioxide) and exaggerated the incremental effect of anthropogenic inputs, which empirical monitoring in the U.S. Northeast showed to be episodic rather than uniformly destructive. Overall, Singer viewed the causation debate as premature for sweeping regulatory action, urging prioritized research into source apportionment via tracers like sulfur isotopes to disentangle human from natural forcings.[46][47]

Analysis of Second-Hand Smoke Health Risks

Singer critiqued the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) 1993 report classifying environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) as a Group A (known human) carcinogen, asserting that the agency's meta-analysis of spousal smoking studies yielded a relative risk of lung cancer in nonsmokers of 1.19, which failed to achieve statistical significance under standard 95% confidence intervals as the interval included unity (no effect).[48] The EPA instead applied a one-tailed 90% confidence interval to deem the risk significant, a deviation from conventional scientific practice that Singer labeled as manipulative to support regulatory claims of approximately 3,000 annual U.S. lung cancer deaths attributable to ETS.[48] In his March 1993 opinion piece "Junk Science at the EPA," Singer argued this reflected broader EPA tendencies toward "extreme positions not supported by science," particularly in selectively emphasizing case-control studies while downplaying larger prospective cohort studies that showed null or insignificant associations.[49] Singer further contended that the EPA ignored publication bias favoring positive results and misclassified some studies by redefining exposure metrics post-hoc, such as prioritizing workplace over spousal exposure without robust dose-response data.[48] He emphasized causal realism, noting that ETS exposure levels are orders of magnitude lower than active smoking—typically 1/100th the dose—rendering plausible risks negligible absent evidence of hypersensitivity in nonsmokers, which epidemiological confounders like diet, genetics, and residual active smoking misclassification undermined.[48] Supporting his position, Singer referenced subsequent large-scale analyses, including the 2003 Enstrom and Kabat cohort study of over 118,000 California adults, which found no statistically significant link between long-term spousal or workplace ETS exposure and lung cancer mortality in nonsmokers (relative risk 0.75, 95% CI 0.45-1.25).[48] These methodological critiques gained judicial validation in 1998, when U.S. District Judge William Osteen ruled the EPA's ETS risk assessment "the product of reasoning so flawed that it cannot support the EPA's conclusions," vacating the Group A classification for procedural irregularities including the non-standard statistics and selective inclusion of only 11 of 30 relevant case-control studies.[48] Singer maintained that while active smoking unequivocally elevates cancer risks via established mechanisms like tar and nicotine deposition, ETS claims lacked comparable empirical rigor and served policy-driven exaggeration rather than evidence-based assessment, paralleling his broader skepticism of low-dose environmental hazards.[49] He attributed overstatements to institutional biases in regulatory science, where weak associations (odds ratios near 1.0) are amplified without accounting for multiple testing or confounding variables inherent in observational data.[50]

Climate Change Skepticism

Empirical Arguments from Observations and Data

Singer emphasized discrepancies between observed atmospheric temperature trends and those predicted by greenhouse gas-driven models. Satellite and radiosonde measurements, particularly in the tropical troposphere, have not shown the expected "hotspot" of enhanced warming at altitudes of 8-12 km, where models forecast amplification due to water vapor feedback on CO2 forcing; instead, data from datasets like the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) indicate flat or slightly cooling trends in this layer from 1979 to the early 2000s, with surface warming exceeding upper-air trends, undermining claims of dominant anthropogenic influence.[51][2] Radiosonde records from thousands of balloon launches worldwide corroborate this pattern, showing no statistically significant warming in the mid-to-upper troposphere over equatorial regions during periods of surface temperature rise.[51] Tide gauge observations reveal global sea level rise at a steady 1.5-1.8 mm per year since the late 19th century, with no detectable acceleration linked to post-1950 CO2 emissions; for instance, records from stable sites like Honolulu and New York show linear trends without the exponential uptick projected by alarmist scenarios, suggesting thermal expansion and post-glacial rebound as primary drivers rather than anthropogenic warming.[52][53] Satellite altimetry data from 1993 onward, while registering slightly higher rates around 3 mm/year, align with unadjusted tide gauges when accounting for local subsidence and do not confirm model-predicted surges.[52] Paleoclimate proxies, including Greenland ice cores documenting Dansgaard-Oeschger events and North Atlantic sediment records of Bond cycles, indicate recurrent 1,400-1,500-year oscillations in temperature and circulation, with the 20th-century warming phase matching the upward limb of such a natural recovery from the Little Ice Age minimum around 1850; these cycles, spanning millennia and evident in oxygen isotope ratios and ice-rafted debris, predate industrial CO2 rises and correlate with solar-modulated ocean circulation changes rather than greenhouse gas concentrations. Singer noted that CO2 lags temperature by centuries in Vostok Antarctic ice core data, implying radiative forcing follows rather than initiates warmings in these cycles. Urban heat island effects and station siting biases inflate land-based surface temperature records, as evidenced by comparisons between rural and urban stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network, where adjustments for these artifacts reveal subdued warming trends; raw data from pristine Antarctic stations like Vostok show minimal 20th-century change, contrasting with globally adjusted datasets.[52] Furthermore, lack of trends in cyclone intensity or frequency, per Extended Reconstructed Hurricane database metrics from 1851-2006, and stable drought indices from Palmer records contradict predictions of CO2-amplified extremes.[54]

Critiques of Climate Models and Predictions

Singer argued that general circulation models (GCMs) underpinning IPCC projections overestimate climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide due to flawed assumptions about positive feedbacks, particularly from water vapor and clouds, which observational data suggest are weak or negative.[55] These models, he contended, prioritize theoretical parameterizations over empirical constraints, leading to unreliable long-term forecasts.[56] In his analysis, the chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics amplifies small errors in initial conditions and sub-grid processes, rendering multi-decadal predictions speculative rather than predictive.[57] A key discrepancy Singer highlighted was the models' failure to reproduce observed tropospheric temperature profiles, including the absence of the predicted "hotspot" of enhanced warming in the upper tropical troposphere, as measured by satellite and radiosonde records from 1979 to 2011.[55] He noted that while surface temperatures showed modest increases influenced by urban heat islands, satellite data indicated negligible atmospheric warming over this period, directly contradicting GCM outputs that assume uniform amplification of surface trends aloft.[55] Similarly, models struggled to hindcast historical variations, such as the global cooling from 1940 to 1970 amid rising CO2 emissions, exposing overreliance on greenhouse forcing without adequate natural variability like solar or oceanic cycles.[58] Singer's NIPCC reports, which he helped lead, documented systematic overprediction in model ensembles, including their inability to capture the surface warming hiatus from 1998 to 2013, during which global temperatures flattened despite continued CO2 increases.[59] He estimated equilibrium climate sensitivity at 1.1–1.2°C per CO2 doubling based on empirical adjustments to model sensitivities, far below IPCC central estimates of 3°C, arguing that transient observed warming rates—around 0.1°C per decade from satellites—align better with low-sensitivity scenarios.[60] In "Hot Talk, Cold Science," Singer and co-authors reviewed early model-based forecasts, such as those implying rapid Arctic ice melt or sea-level rise, which failed to materialize at predicted rates; for instance, sea levels rose at 1.7–1.8 mm/year from 1993 to 2010, consistent with 20th-century trends rather than accelerating anthropogenic signals.[61] These shortcomings, according to Singer, invalidated policy prescriptions tied to model-derived alarmism, as predictions of extreme events like intensified hurricanes or widespread droughts had not increased beyond natural variability.[55] He urged validation against direct measurements, such as UAH satellite records showing 0.13°C/decade lower-troposphere warming since 1979, rather than untested simulations.[55] Singer's critiques emphasized that while models usefully hindcast broad 20th-century warming under high-forcing assumptions, their forward projections diverge from reality due to unresolved forcings and feedbacks, necessitating skepticism toward consensus narratives built on them.[56]

Challenges to IPCC Processes and Consensus Formation

S. Fred Singer contended that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) manufactured its consensus on anthropogenic global warming through processes controlled by a small group of scientists predisposed to that conclusion, rather than through impartial evaluation of evidence. He argued that lead authors were selected based on their alignment with this view, effectively sidelining dissenting perspectives and ensuring reports reinforced the narrative of human-caused climate change.[62] Singer highlighted flaws in report formation, particularly the Summary for Policymakers (SPM), which he claimed was negotiated and agreed upon by governments and IPCC officials before the underlying scientific chapters were fully drafted, allowing political priorities to override scientific content. This process, in his view, systematically downplayed uncertainties in climate data and models to present a unified, alarmist message, despite empirical discrepancies such as the lack of observed post-1979 tropospheric warming in satellite and radiosonde records.[62][57] To counter what he saw as the IPCC's biased consensus-building, Singer contributed to the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), starting with its 2009 report Climate Change Reconsidered and subsequent volumes like the 2011 NIPCC vs. IPCC. These efforts reviewed the peer-reviewed literature more comprehensively, including studies on natural variability that the IPCC allegedly ignored or dismissed, and concluded there was no empirical support for attributing recent warming primarily to human CO2 emissions. The NIPCC process emphasized testing the anthropogenic hypothesis against observations, contrasting with the IPCC's reliance on a limited set of surface temperature datasets prone to urban heat island effects and insufficient model validation runs.[36][57][60] Singer further critiqued the IPCC's handling of dissent, pointing to incidents like the 2009 Climategate emails as evidence of data manipulation and suppression of contrary findings to maintain consensus. In a 2015 NIPCC report, Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming, he argued that no robust survey or analysis supported the IPCC's claim of near-unanimous scientific agreement, attributing the perceived consensus to political incentives, funding dependencies, and institutional pressures rather than the weight of evidence.[57][60]

Reception and Legacy

Scientific Community Responses

The scientific community largely rejected S. Fred Singer's contrarian positions on environmental issues, viewing them as outliers inconsistent with the accumulating body of peer-reviewed evidence supporting anthropogenic influences. Critics, including IPCC lead authors, argued that Singer selectively emphasized natural forcings and observational discrepancies while downplaying paleoclimate proxies, isotopic signatures of CO2 sources, and attribution studies linking human emissions to post-1950 warming trends. This perspective framed his work as contributing to public confusion rather than advancing rigorous debate, with atmospheric physicist Ben Santer and co-authors explicitly refuting Singer's 2000 claims that the IPCC's "discernible human influence" finding hinged on a single, allegedly manipulated study; they stressed the conclusion integrated diverse datasets and underwent multiple review stages independent of any one paper. Specific rebuttals targeted Singer's analyses of sea-level rise and climate sensitivity. In response to his 2018 assertion that no acceleration had occurred since 1930—attributed instead to natural cycles—tide gauge and satellite records (e.g., from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason missions) documented a rise from 1.4 mm/year pre-1993 to 3.4 mm/year post-1993, driven by steric expansion and Greenland/Antarctic mass loss, trends Singer's cherry-picked subsets overlooked.[63] [64] Reviews by glaciologists and oceanographers emphasized that his dismissal ignored GRACE gravimetry confirming ice-sheet contributions exceeding natural variability.[63] Singer's critiques of climate models fared similarly, with modelers countering his emphasis on discrepancies in transient simulations by pointing to validated hindcasts of 20th-century temperatures and the physical basis for equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates (1.5–4.5°C per CO2 doubling) derived from energy balance constraints and feedback parameterizations.[65] Active researchers also highlighted Singer's detachment from frontline data assimilation, noting his reliance on aggregated summaries over primary fieldwork or ensemble forecasting, which distanced him from collaborative efforts in bodies like the World Climate Research Programme.[66] A smaller cohort of atmospheric physicists and statisticians aligned with Singer's calls for greater weight on solar irradiance reconstructions and urban heat island corrections, co-authoring NIPCC reports that paralleled IPCC structures but prioritized empirical null hypotheses over model projections; these efforts, while peer-reviewed in select journals, represented a fringe challenging the dominant paradigm without overturning core attributions.[67] Responses to his ozone depletion skepticism similarly dismissed solar-geomagnetic alternatives, as halogen catalytic cycles in CFCs were empirically verified via Antarctic balloon ozonesondes and satellite overpasses, underpinning the 1987 Montreal Protocol's success in halting stratospheric chlorine peaks by 1995.[68] Overall, institutional assessments, including those from the American Geophysical Union, underscored Singer's influence as amplifying doubt amid converging lines of evidence, though his foundational contributions to satellite meteorology garnered isolated acknowledgments decoupled from later debates.

Influence on Policy and Public Discourse

Singer's testimonies before U.S. congressional committees provided empirical critiques of proposed environmental regulations, emphasizing uncertainties in causal links between human activities and observed phenomena. In a July 10, 1997, Senate hearing on global climate change, he argued that satellite data showed no significant tropospheric warming, questioning the basis for policies like the Kyoto Protocol.[38] Similarly, during a February 8, 2007, House Select Committee hearing on the state of climate science, Singer highlighted discrepancies between surface and satellite measurements, advocating against precipitous regulatory actions in favor of continued observation and adaptation strategies.[40] As founder of the Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) in 1990, Singer sought to counter policies driven by what he viewed as overstated risks, promoting "no-regrets" approaches that prioritized economic growth and technological advancement over immediate restrictions.[33] SEPP's publications and analyses influenced conservative policy circles, including arguments against ratification of international climate agreements by underscoring natural climate variability evidenced in paleoclimate records.[69] Singer co-initiated the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) in 2007, which produced reports like Climate Change Reconsidered (2009), directly challenging IPCC assessments with alternative interpretations of observational data, such as urban heat island effects inflating surface temperatures.[70] These reports were cited in U.S. policy debates and by organizations like the Heartland Institute to advocate for market-based solutions over carbon taxes or caps.[2] In public discourse, Singer's books, including Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warming's Unfinished Debate (1997, revised 2007) and Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years (2007, co-authored with Dennis Avery), disseminated arguments for solar-driven cycles as primary climate drivers, drawing on proxy data like ice cores.[61] These works, along with op-eds in outlets like The Wall Street Journal, amplified skepticism among non-specialists and policymakers, fostering debates that emphasized verifiable data over model projections and contributing to resistance against alarmist narratives in media and electoral politics.[55]

Posthumous Evaluations and Ongoing Debates

Following S. Fred Singer's death on April 6, 2020, at age 95, obituaries and commentaries reflected polarized views on his legacy, with supporters emphasizing his empirical challenges to environmental alarmism and critics framing his skepticism as obstructive denialism. The Heartland Institute, where Singer served as a distinguished fellow, lauded him as a "scientific giant" whose work nearly single-handedly sustained debate on the uncertainties of climate causation, crediting him with founding the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) to counter IPCC narratives through alternative assessments of peer-reviewed literature.[71] In contrast, The New York Times described him as a "leading climate change contrarian" who spent decades refuting evidence of global warming and other risks, often labeled a "merchant of doubt" by opponents for allegedly prioritizing doubt over consensus science.[7] The Washington Post noted his early contributions to rocketry and atmospheric research but highlighted his later opposition to regulations on climate, tobacco smoke, and pollution, attributing it to a principled aversion to government intervention despite mounting data.[15] The Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP), which Singer established in 1992, affirmed in a 2020 statement that his "contribution to the international debate over climate change cannot be overstated," positioning him as a pioneer in questioning model-based projections against observational data. Such evaluations underscore Singer's insistence on solar variability and natural cycles as dominant drivers, arguments that supporters argue remain relevant amid discrepancies between climate model forecasts and satellite temperature records.[61] Ongoing debates center on the enduring influence of Singer's NIPCC framework, which continues under the Heartland Institute to produce reports like Climate Change Reconsidered, last updated in site content as of May 28, 2024, challenging IPCC conclusions by aggregating studies on non-anthropogenic factors such as cosmic rays and ocean oscillations.[34] Proponents cite this as evidence of Singer's foresight in prioritizing verifiable data over predictive simulations, while detractors, including outlets aligned with consensus views, maintain that his legacy exemplifies industry-influenced resistance to empirical evidence of CO2-driven warming, though without new posthumous analyses overturning his core datasets.[2] These tensions persist in policy discussions, where Singer's critiques inform arguments against rapid decarbonization, as seen in continued references to his books and NIPCC volumes in skeptic analyses of post-2020 temperature trends and economic impacts.[3]

Later Life and Death

Continued Research and Writing

In the years following his formal retirement from academic positions, S. Fred Singer maintained an active role in scientific discourse through the Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP), which he founded in 1990 to scrutinize environmental policies grounded in what he viewed as unsubstantiated scientific claims.[33] SEPP produced weekly updates, policy analyses, and critiques of mainstream environmental narratives, with Singer contributing regularly to its publications and newsletters until his later years.[2] His efforts emphasized empirical data over model projections, particularly in challenging assertions of anthropogenic climate dominance and ozone layer threats.[4] Singer co-authored several influential books in the 2000s and 2010s that expanded on his skeptical perspectives. In Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years (2007, with Dennis T. Avery), he argued that historical climate cycles, driven by solar variability and natural forcings, better explained observed warming than human emissions, citing paleoclimate records showing recurrent warm periods without industrial CO2 increases. Similarly, Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warming's Unfinished Debate (2007, revised 2021) critiqued alarmist predictions by highlighting discrepancies between satellite temperature data and surface records, as well as failed forecasts from earlier IPCC reports. These works drew on peer-reviewed literature and observational datasets, such as those from weather satellites he helped develop decades earlier. As a lead author for the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Singer oversaw comprehensive reports like Climate Change Reconsidered (2009, 2011, 2013 editions, with subsequent updates through the NIPC Final Report in 2019). These volumes systematically reviewed thousands of studies, contending that uncertainties in climate sensitivity, feedback mechanisms, and attribution rendered IPCC consensus overstated, with natural factors—evidenced by ocean cycles and cosmic ray influences—accounting for much of the 20th-century warming.[72] Singer's contributions extended to peer-reviewed papers and op-eds; for instance, he published analyses on ozone recovery trends contradicting depletion models, attributing observed Antarctic changes to dynamical effects rather than solely CFCs.[4] Up to age 94, he penned articles questioning policy-driven science, including a 2018 piece on satellite data showing no acceleration in sea-level rise.[7] Singer's later output prioritized first-hand data scrutiny, such as UAH satellite records indicating modest warming rates (about 0.13°C per decade since 1979), against model projections exceeding 0.2°C per decade. He retired as SEPP president in 2014 but continued advisory roles and writing, amassing over 200 technical papers lifetime, with post-2000 focus on geophysical and atmospheric topics.[73] Critics from mainstream institutions often dismissed his work as industry-influenced, though Singer maintained SEPP's funding transparency and independence from policy agendas.[22]

Personal Life and Health

Siegfried Fred Singer was born on September 27, 1924, in Vienna, Austria, to Jewish parents; his father worked as a jeweler and his mother as a homemaker.[8] In the wake of the Nazi annexation of Austria in 1938, Singer, then 13, fled via a Kindertransport to England, where he lived in Northumberland and worked briefly as a teenage optician.[8][15] He later joined his family in the United States, settling in Ohio, and became a naturalized citizen in 1945.[7] Singer married Isabel Robbins in 1979; the union ended in divorce four years later in 1983.[7] He wed Candace Carolyn Crandall in 1990—she later contributed to founding the Science and Environmental Policy Project alongside him—but they divorced in 2000.[7] Singer had no biological children from either marriage, though he had five stepchildren from the second.[7] His sister, Melanie Watkins, died in 2019.[7] In his later years, Singer lived in the Rockville, Maryland, area, where he spent several years in a nursing home under care amid declining health associated with advanced age.[71] No public records detail specific chronic conditions or illnesses preceding his nursing home residency.[7]

Death and Immediate Reactions

S. Fred Singer died on April 6, 2020, at the age of 95 in a nursing home in Rockville, Maryland.[15][7] The precise cause of death was not publicly disclosed by family members.[15] Immediate reactions to Singer's death reflected polarized views on his scientific legacy, particularly his critiques of anthropogenic climate change attribution. Organizations aligned with climate skepticism, such as the Heartland Institute where Singer served as a distinguished visiting scientist, eulogized him as a "dogged and dauntless" pursuer of truth who challenged orthodoxy through empirical rigor.[74] The Competitive Enterprise Institute similarly praised him as a "distinguished scientist and leading climate skeptic" whose work emphasized data over consensus.[13] In contrast, mainstream media outlets and some climate scientists framed Singer as a contrarian whose positions delayed action on global warming. The New York Times obituary described him as earning "the enmity of experts" for refuting established climate science.[7] Texas A&M climate scientist Andrew Dessler tweeted a balanced personal assessment: "I always liked Fred personally, but disagreed with him professionally. RIP."[7] The National Center for Science Education labeled him an "influential climate change denier," echoing critiques from groups viewing his skepticism as ideologically driven rather than evidence-based.[75] These responses underscored ongoing debates over source credibility in climate discourse, with skeptic-affiliated tributes emphasizing Singer's independence from institutional biases while detractors prioritized alignment with IPCC-endorsed models.

References

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