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Tule fog captured by NASA's Terra Satellite in January 2005. The Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley (together called the Central Valley) are almost completely covered in tule fog.
Tule fog settled on an orchard in Stanislaus County in late December.

Tule fog (/ˈtuːli/ TOO-lee) is a thick ground fog that settles in the San Joaquin Valley and Sacramento Valley areas of California's Central Valley. Tule fog forms from late fall through early spring (California's winter season) after the first significant rainfall. The official time frame for tule fog to form is from November 1 to March 31. This phenomenon is named after the tule grass wetlands (tulares) of the Central Valley. As of 2005, tule fog was the leading cause of weather-related accidents in California.[1]

Formation

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Tule fog is a radiation fog, which condenses when there is a high relative humidity (typically after a heavy rain), calm winds, and rapid cooling during the night. The nights are longer in the winter months, which allows an extended period of ground cooling, and thereby a pronounced temperature inversion at a low altitude.[2]

In California, tule fog can extend from Bakersfield to Red Bluff, covering a distance of over 650 kilometres (400 mi). Tule fog occasionally drifts as far west as the San Francisco Bay Area via the Carquinez Strait, and can even drift westward out through the Golden Gate, opposite to the usual course of the coastal fog.[3]

Tule fog is characteristically confined mainly to the Central Valley due to the mountain ranges surrounding it.[4] Because of the density of the cold air in the winter, winds are not able to dislodge the fog and the high pressure of the warmer air above the mountaintops presses down on the cold air trapped in the valley, resulting in a dense, immobile fog that can last for days or at times for weeks undisturbed. Tule fog often contains light drizzle or freezing drizzle where temperatures are sufficiently cold.

Tule fog is a low cloud, usually below 2,000 feet (600 m) in altitude and can be seen from above by driving up into the foothills of the Sierra Nevada to the east or the Coast Ranges to the west. Above the cold, foggy layer, the air is typically mild, dry and clear. Once tule fog has formed, turbulent air is necessary to break through the temperature inversion layer. Daytime heating (cloud-penetrating visible light wavelengths transformed to infrared by the ground) sometimes evaporates the fog in patches, although the air remains chilly and hazy below the inversion and fog reforms soon after sunset. Tule fog usually remains longer in the southern and eastern parts of the Central Valley, because winter storms with strong winds and turbulent air affect the northern Central Valley more often.

Visibility

[edit]
Tule fog in Bakersfield.

Visibility in tule fog is usually less than an eighth of a mile (about 600 ft or 200 m). Visibility can vary rapidly; in only a few feet, visibility can go from 10 feet (3.0 m) to near zero.[5]

The variability in visibility is the cause of many chain-reaction pile-ups on roads and freeways. In one such accident on Interstate 5 near Elk Grove south of Sacramento, 25 cars and nine big-rig trucks collided inside a fog bank on December 12, 1997. Five people died and 28 were injured. It took 26 hours to clear away all the wreckage and reopen the freeway.[6] In February 2002, two people were killed in an 80-plus-car pile-up on State Route 99 between Kingsburg and Selma. On the morning of November 3, 2007, heavy tule fog caused a massive pile-up that included 108 passenger vehicles and 18 big-rig trucks on northbound State Route 99 between Fowler and Fresno. Visibility was about 200 feet (60 m) at the time of the accident. There were two fatalities and 39 injuries in the crash.[7] On January 6, 2024, foggy conditions led to a pile-up of over 40 vehicles in Kern County on the southbound side of I-5 that left two dead and nine injured. By the time emergency services had arrived, the tule fog left about 10 feet of visibility.[8] Following the 2007 pile-up, the California Department of Transportation spent $12 million to install a fog-detecting and warning system. The technology detects fog and uses microwave sensors to track when vehicles begin to slow down. This system was developed for a 13-mile section of Highway 99, south of Fresno, due to its high number of accidents. A driver education program and phone line were also included in this project to offer motorists information. Studies on the success of this system are unknown, due to declining tule fog. [9]

Freezing drizzle and black ice

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Tule fog events are often accompanied by drizzle. Sunlight often cannot sufficiently penetrate the fog layer, keeping temperatures below freezing. Episodes of freezing drizzle occasionally accompany tule fog events during winter. Such events can leave an invisible glaze of black ice on roadways, making travel especially treacherous.

Composition

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Besides water droplets, the composition of tule fog in the San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys includes ammonia, nitrate and sulfate concentrations. Furthermore, ammonia is the most commonly found single ion and usually is measured to be more than half of the measured ions in the fog. Depending on the region within the California Central Valley, the composition of tule fog can vary in element or ion concentrations.[10]

As of 2014, it has been discovered that the quantity of tule fog has decreased in the Central Valley from when it was initially studied from 1981 to 1999 compared to 2001–2012.[11] The frequency of tule fog occurrence is proportional to the higher air pollution in California.[12] Minimum temperature, DPD (the difference between ambient temperature and dew point), precipitation, and wind speed are the four major components that affect fog formation.[12] Minimum temperature affects tule fog formation because it is an extreme form of radiation fog that most often forms after sunset due to rapid surface radiative cooling.[12] Low DPD is consistent with more frequent periods of fog.[12] Precipitation has somewhat of a correlation to an increase in fog; however, it is not directly correlated due to some precipitation totals being inversely correlated to some fog years.[12] Wind speed has a small but statistically important impact on fog frequency: lower wind speeds are correlated with higher fog frequency.[12]

Winter causes the optimal meteorological conditions for fog formation due to periodic storms followed by extended periods of high pressure throughout California.[11]

Declining fog

[edit]

Researchers observing the Central Valley fog climate over the course of 33 years found that tule fog has been on a decline. [13] In the study, a 46% drop in the number of fog days since 1981 was observed. Other research has also seen an overall decline in the amount of hours the Central Valley experiences a winter chill (temperatures 32°-45°F) since the 1950s. [14] With a decrease in the Central Valley's winter chill, fog also decreases.

This decrease is likely to continue if factors like global warming, climate change, urban heat islands, California drought, and air-pollution control continue. [15] 2019 research found that fog patterns follow that of pollution levels, increasing and decreasing with air pollution. Tule fog was documented to have increased by 85% between 1930 and 1970, and then decreased by 76% between 1980 and 2016. These trends follow that of air pollution, initially rising between 1930 and 1970 due to increased farming and industrialization, then falling in the 1970s after the implementation of air pollution regulations. This correlation is due to nitrogen oxides reacting with ammonia, producing ammonium nitrate particles. These particles promote the condensation of water vapor into fog. Observed since 1980, as nitrogen oxide emissions fall, tule fog levels do as well. [16]

A decrease in tule fog may lead to a variety of negative impacts on California’s massive agricultural industry. Agriculture in the Central Valley provides 95% of fruit and nut production to the U.S. and boasts a multi-billion dollar economy. Major crops grown in Central California such as almonds, cherries, pistachios, and peaches require prolonged temperatures between 32°F and 45°F during winter to grow, and tule fog is a major contributor to this winter chill. Without this weather, many Central Valley crops cannot be grown due to the crops needing this dormant time in winter to later produce fruit. Tule fog also helps shield crops from the sun during the winter chill. [17]

References

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[edit]
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Tule fog

View on Grokipedia
from Grokipedia
Tule fog is a dense form of radiation fog that characteristically forms in the Central Valley of California, particularly in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys, during the late fall and winter months. It develops on clear, calm nights following significant rainfall, when moist ground cools rapidly, causing the air to reach its and condense into tiny water droplets that create thick, ground-hugging fog. Named after the tule reeds () historically abundant in the region's wetlands, this fog can extend over 400 miles and is often confined by surrounding mountain ranges such as the Sierra Nevada and Coast Ranges. The fog's extreme density frequently reduces visibility to near zero, peaking around 7 a.m., and poses severe hazards to motorists, contributing to numerous multi-vehicle accidents and serving as a leading cause of weather-related casualties in . For instance, it has triggered massive pileups, including a 2007 incident involving 108 vehicles that resulted in two deaths and dozens of injuries. Despite its dangers, tule fog benefits in the Central —which produces 95% of the nation's fruits and nuts—by providing essential winter moisture that aids crop dormancy and reduces irrigation needs during the dry season. In recent decades, the frequency of tule fog has significantly declined, dropping by 76% over the 36 winters from 1980 to 2016, largely due to reduced from stricter emissions controls that limit like . Earlier, fog events had increased by 85% from 1930 to 1970 amid rising levels, highlighting the influence of human activity on its occurrence. This ongoing decrease, potentially exacerbated by and urban heat islands, threatens agricultural viability by shortening critical chill hours required for fruit and nut trees, with projections indicating some crops may become unsustainable in the Central Valley by the mid-to-late .

Overview and Geography

Definition and Etymology

Tule fog is a thick, persistent ground fog that forms in the Central Valley of California, consisting of low-lying stratus clouds that hug the ground and often reduce visibility to near zero. It is classified as a type of radiation fog, arising from the of the ground and overlying air under clear skies and calm winds. The term "tule fog" derives from "tule," the name of the extensive reed-like wetlands—historically known as tulares—that once dominated the valley floors, providing moist conditions conducive to fog development. These wetlands, characterized by dense growths of (common tule), covered much of the Central Valley prior to widespread agricultural drainage. The name first appeared in meteorological records in the early 1900s, reflecting its association with these marshy environments. Tule fog typically occurs from late fall through early spring, with an official season defined as November 1 to March 31, when cooler temperatures and higher humidity prevail. It has long been recognized as a distinctive regional , closely tied to the Central Valley's flat, enclosed , which traps cool, moist air and promotes prolonged fog persistence.

Geographic Occurrence

Tule fog primarily occurs in the Central Valley of , a vast agricultural region that includes the stretching from Red Bluff in the north to Sacramento and the extending from Stockton to Bakersfield in the south, spanning approximately 400 miles (650 km). This core concentration in the Great Central Valley is enabled by local moisture sources, including tule wetlands that supply water vapor to the air. The fog's name derives from the dense stands of tule reeds historically abundant in these low-lying wetlands. The topography of the Central Valley plays a crucial role in the geographic distribution and persistence of tule fog, with its broad, flat floors—typically 300 to 400 feet in elevation—enclosed by the towering Sierra Nevada range to the east and the Coast Ranges to the west. These surrounding mountain barriers create an enclosed air basin that traps cold, dense air near the surface, allowing the fog to stagnate and spread across the expansive valley without rapid dissipation. This topographic confinement limits ventilation, concentrating the fog over the agricultural heartland. Occasionally, under favorable wind conditions, tule fog extends westward into adjacent areas such as the San Francisco Bay Area, though its primary domain remains the Central Valley. From space, the fog is strikingly visible as a thick, continuous white blanket enveloping the valley floor, as captured in true-color imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA's Terra satellite, highlighting its vast spatial extent bounded roughly by 34.6°N to 40°N latitude and 122°W to 119°W longitude.

Formation and Meteorology

Mechanisms of Formation

Tule fog develops primarily as a through nocturnal under predominantly clear skies. The ground surface loses heat rapidly by longwave to space, cooling the adjacent layer of moist air until it reaches saturation at the temperature, at which point condenses into suspended microscopic droplets forming . This process is most effective in the absence of , which would otherwise trap outgoing and inhibit surface cooling. Key antecedent conditions facilitate this cooling and condensation. Recent rainfall or agricultural elevates levels across the Central , promoting that increases near-surface relative and supplies ample to the . Calm winds, generally below 3 m/s (approximately 7 mph), minimize turbulent mixing, allowing the cold air to remain stratified near the ground without dilution by warmer air aloft. Additionally, cold air drainage flows from the surrounding Sierra Nevada and Coastal Range mountains descend into the valley basin at night, pooling denser, cooler air in low-lying areas and enhancing the effect. As cooling progresses, a surface-based temperature inversion forms, with the coldest air trapped beneath a warmer layer aloft, stabilizing the atmosphere and confining the fog to within a few hundred meters of the surface. This inversion prevents vertical dispersion, allowing the fog to deepen and intensify overnight. Fog onset typically occurs a few hours after sunset, as lowers the near-surface air to the , and it often reaches maximum thickness just before dawn, persisting until morning solar heating erodes the inversion and lifts the fog layer. Historically, the prevalence of expansive tule marshes—wetlands dominated by tule reeds ()—provided persistently high that promoted frequent events in the pre-agricultural Central Valley landscape. In modern times, intensive agricultural has largely replaced these natural wetlands as the primary source of evaporative moisture, sustaining the conditions necessary for tule fog formation despite landscape alterations.

Seasonal and Climatic Influences

Tule fog predominantly occurs from late fall through early spring, spanning approximately to , aligning with California's rainy season when longer nights facilitate greater and post-rainfall moisture persists in the Central Valley. During this period, cooler temperatures, often remaining below 50°F (10°C), combined with saturated soils from preceding , create ideal conditions for development, whereas summer months see rare occurrences due to persistent dry conditions and stronger diurnal heating that prevents moisture accumulation. The diurnal cycle of tule fog is driven by nightly under clear skies, initiating as surface temperatures drop and relative humidity exceeds 80%, with typically forming during the night after sunset, reaching peak density just before dawn, and beginning to dissipate by due to solar heating, though dense episodes can persist throughout the day under prolonged calm conditions. Essential climatic prerequisites include light winds, generally under 5 mph (8 km/h), which allow the fog layer to stabilize without mixing, and antecedent clear skies that promote efficient radiative loss from the ground. Radiation cooling serves as the primary initiating process, drawing from the moist near the surface.

Physical Characteristics

Visibility and Persistence

Tule fog severely impairs visibility, frequently reducing it to one-quarter mile or less, with extreme instances approaching near zero. This level of opacity exceeds that of many advection fogs, as tule fog's radiation-driven formation in stagnant air allows for a more uniform and impenetrable blanket. The National Weather Service issues Dense Fog Advisories when widespread visibilities drop below one-quarter mile, a threshold commonly met during tule fog events in California's Central Valley. The persistence of tule fog varies but often extends from several hours to multiple days, with prolonged episodes lasting up to two or three weeks under persistent high-pressure systems that inhibit mixing. During the day, the fog dissipates gradually as surface heating attempts to lift it, though weak sunlight penetration through the dense layer prolongs its hold until late morning or afternoon. Density gradients within tule fog are pronounced, with the thickest concentrations pooling in the lowest elevations of the Central Valley floor and thinning progressively toward the surrounding valley edges and . From above, reveals it as a vast, uniform low-level layer typically reaching heights of up to 1,000 feet. This visual of light by suspended water droplets underscores the fog's , limiting sightlines to hazardous levels.

Composition and Microphysics

Tule fog is primarily composed of supercooled droplets suspended in the near-surface atmosphere. These droplets form under conditions common to the Central Valley, where temperatures often hover near or below freezing, allowing the to remain liquid despite . The small size of these droplets contributes to the fog's persistence and low settling rates, distinguishing it from coarser particles. of these droplets occurs via on atmospheric aerosols serving as (CCN). In the Central Valley, natural particles such as soil dust and organic debris from vegetation have historically served as CCN, while anthropogenic pollutants, particularly from agricultural fertilizers and vehicle emissions, and from industrial sources, have become prominent, enhancing efficiency in urban-adjacent areas like Fresno and Bakersfield. and ions dominate the of the fog alongside . Microphysical processes in tule fog involve droplet growth primarily through vapor diffusion within the stable, decoupled . The stable air minimizes , promoting condensational growth over collision-coalescence. Compared to cleaner marine fogs, tule fog's proximity to pollution sources results in greater CCN activation at low supersaturations, yielding more numerous but smaller droplets that enhance optical thickness.

Associated Weather Hazards

Freezing Drizzle

Freezing drizzle forms in association with tule fog when supercooled liquid water droplets, typically smaller than 0.5 mm in diameter, fall as light at rates less than 0.01 inch per hour and freeze upon contact with surfaces at or below 32°F (0°C). This phenomenon requires prolonged tule fog persistence with air temperatures near the freezing point, often between 28°F and 32°F (-2°C to 0°C), and is most prevalent during and when winter inversions trap cold, moist air in the Central Valley. Under these conditions, the supercooled liquid drops freeze on impact with surfaces, forming a thin glaze of ice and enhancing localized icing without measurable accumulation. The resulting weather effects include the development of slippery conditions on roads and exposed surfaces due to the thin ice layer formed, which does not build up significantly but amplifies broader icing hazards during tule fog events. Freezing drizzle is more frequent in the northern , where colder air masses from surrounding highlands promote the necessary subfreezing environment.

Black Ice

Black ice forms during tule fog events when supercooled water droplets from the fog or associated freezing deposit onto road surfaces and refreeze at temperatures below 32°F (0°C), creating a transparent, nearly invisible glaze that blends with the dark underlying pavement. This occurs particularly in the persistent, low-lying conditions of tule fog in California's Central Valley, where high and calm winds promote the wetting of surfaces without immediate . The formation process involves moisture from fog evaporation or light drizzle first wetting the pavement, followed by rapid freezing as subfreezing air temperatures prevail, often under the overcast skies that sustain tule fog. The resulting ice layer is extremely thin, typically fractions of an inch, which enhances its deceptive appearance and allows it to form quickly on exposed surfaces. It is especially common on bridges, overpasses, and shaded areas, where radiative cooling accelerates the temperature drop below freezing. This exhibits high slipperiness due to its low coefficient of friction, generally less than 0.2, making it a significant on affected roads. can persist for several hours, particularly while tule fog remains, blocking and delaying melting; it may worsen through repeated freeze-thaw cycles as daytime temperatures hover near freezing before dropping again at night.

Historical Frequency

Tule fog has been a defining meteorological feature of California's Central Valley since at least the , when settler accounts described its dense, low-lying nature blanketing the landscape for extended periods. Systematic documentation began with official records from the in the 1930s, enabling quantitative analysis of its frequency through visibility and weather observations at stations across the region. The early to mid-20th century marked a period of rapid increase in tule fog occurrences. From 1930 to 1970, the frequency of dense fog days rose by 85% valley-wide, driven by escalating from agricultural development, industrial activities, and emissions, which supplied abundant essential for fog droplet formation. This surge aligned with broader regional growth, including expanded practices that elevated , further supporting the and processes conducive to radiation fog persistence. Peak tule fog activity occurred during mid-century winters, with prolonged events extending visibility restrictions over consecutive weeks. These records highlight annual totals derived from visibility reports, capturing events that integrated spatially across more than 10,000 square miles of the Central Valley during widespread episodes.

Decline Due to Pollution and

The frequency of tule fog in California's Central Valley has markedly decreased over recent decades, with research documenting a 46% reduction in foggy days from 1981 to 2013 across the region's fruit-growing areas. This trend has intensified, showing a 76% decline over the 36 winters leading up to 2019, as analyzed through long-term meteorological records. By the 2020s, annual totals in core Central Valley locations had fallen below 20 days, with the decline continuing into recent winters (as of 2024), where events occur sporadically after winter rains. A primary driver of this decline stems from air quality improvements under the Clean Air Act of 1970 and subsequent amendments, which have substantially reduced aerosol concentrations acting as (CCN) for fog droplet formation. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), key precursors to aerosols—highly efficient CCN—have dropped dramatically since the 1980s, correlating with fewer fog days under low-wind, near-saturated conditions. Similarly, sulfate aerosols from emissions have declined by about 50% in due to regulatory controls, further limiting the particles available to sustain radiation fog. Studies employing depression metrics, which measure the temperature difference between air and its saturation point, confirm that these cleaner conditions have systematically suppressed fog persistence by reducing the nuclei needed for droplet initiation and growth. Climate change exacerbates the pollution-driven decline through warmer winter temperatures, which have risen 1–2°F statewide since 1980, elevating depression and making less effective for fog development. Prolonged droughts have diminished , curtailing the evaporative supply of essential for post-rainfall fog episodes. Additionally, shifting storm patterns under a warming —bringing more variable timing—disrupt the calm, moist conditions favoring tule fog formation. Rising temperatures and altered are anticipated to compound these effects, leading to further reductions in fog frequency.

Human Impacts

Transportation Safety

Tule fog poses significant risks to ground transportation, primarily due to its extreme low visibility, which often drops to less than one-eighth of a mile (about 600 feet), leading to sudden multi-vehicle collisions on major Central Valley highways such as (I-5) and State Route 99 (SR 99). These pileups are exacerbated by high traffic volumes and speeds, with tule fog historically accounting for the majority of weather-related vehicle accidents in . For instance, between 2001 and 2021, recorded 755 fog-related fatal crashes, averaging about 36 per year, with SR 99 experiencing 43 such incidents resulting in 53 deaths—more than any other U.S. roadway. Notable examples include a 2002 pileup on SR 99 with 90 vehicles that resulted in at least two fatalities and dozens of injuries, and a 2007 incident on SR 99 involving 108 vehicles that killed two people and injured 41 others. More recently, on January 6, 2024, a pileup on I-5 near Gorman involved about 40 vehicles in dense fog, resulting in 2 deaths and 9 injuries. In January 2026, multiple multi-vehicle pile-ups occurred due to dense tule fog, including on January 11 on Highway 99 in Fresno involving 17 vehicles, resulting in 1 fatality and over 20 injuries, and on January 19 on the 91 Freeway in Carson involving multiple vehicles with at least 1 fatality. No major pile-ups with fatalities were reported in February 2026 as of February 16. In the , such incidents frequently claimed dozens of lives annually across the state, underscoring the hazard's severity during peak fog seasons from to . Aviation operations are similarly disrupted by tule fog, which frequently reduces ceiling heights and visibility below (IFR) minimums, often to less than 200 feet, prompting ground stops and widespread delays or diversions at Central Valley airports. Airports such as Fresno Yosemite International (FAT) and Sacramento International (SMF) are particularly affected, with fog routinely grounding flights during morning hours when visibility falls below a quarter mile. For example, in November 2021, dense tule fog at FAT led to multiple flight diversions and cancellations as inbound aircraft circled unable to land. These conditions can persist for hours, impacting regional across Stockton, Bakersfield, and other Valley hubs. To mitigate these risks, the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) issues advisories on fog-prone routes like I-5 and SR 99, recommending drivers reduce speeds to 55 mph or less, use low-beam headlights or fog lights, and increase following distances for safer stopping. Despite such measures, the primary dangers stem from rapid visibility changes that catch motorists off guard at highway speeds. However, the overall decline in tule fog frequency—down 76% over the last 36 winters due to reduced —has correspondingly lowered transportation incidents by a significant margin since 2000, with fewer severe pileups reported in recent decades.

Agricultural and Ecological Effects

Tule fog plays a significant role in the agricultural productivity of California's Central Valley by contributing to the winter chill hours essential for the of and nut trees. Many crops, such as almonds and peaches, require between 300 and 1,000 chill hours—defined as hours with temperatures between 0°C and 7.2°C—to break dormancy and produce viable buds, flowers, and ; the persistent low temperatures under tule fog help accumulate these hours during the otherwise mild winters. Additionally, the fog's moisture reduces rates, thereby lowering demands for winter and early spring crops by conserving surface and subsurface . However, tule fog also presents challenges to agriculture through its association with freezing conditions that can damage sensitive crops. In the Central Valley, temperatures under dense fog often drop below freezing, leading to frost injury in orchards where prolonged cold snaps have historically caused significant losses, such as fruit rind damage or tree dieback. The high humidity from fog further exacerbates fungal diseases in vineyards, as free moisture on leaves and clusters triggers the release of ascospores for pathogens like powdery mildew (Erysiphe necator), increasing infection rates and necessitating fungicide applications. Freezing drizzle during fog events can add to crop stress by coating plants with , compounding freeze damage in exposed fields. Ecologically, tule fog has historically supported the valley's wetland systems, including tule marshes dominated by (Schoenoplectus spp.), by maintaining high humidity and reducing evaporation, which helped sustain moisture levels critical for these habitats and their associated of birds, amphibians, and aquatic species. In contemporary landscapes, the fog continues to aid by limiting evaporative losses from saturated soils after winter rains, promoting infiltration into the Central aquifer. The ongoing decline in tule fog frequency poses risks to chill-dependent , with projections indicating potential yield reductions of up to 20% for crops like almonds and peaches by mid-century due to insufficient periods and uneven set. Conversely, this decline, largely driven by reduced , improves regional air quality, which benefits health by lowering exposure to particulate matter and nitrates that impair and in like honeybees and native bees vital to Central Valley orchards.

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