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Extreme cold warning
Extreme cold warning
Extreme cold warning
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An extreme cold warning is a weather warning issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS) to inform the public about active or imminent severe cold temperatures in their local region.

In April 2014, ECCC replaced the "wind chill warning" with an "extreme cold warning." In the older system a wind chill warning for Southern Ontario and Atlantic Canada was issued when the wind chill dropped to -35. Thus a temperature of −37 °C (−35 °F) with no winds would not require a warning be issued. Under the new system the extreme cold warning is issued based on either the temperature or the wind chill being a certain value for at least two hours. The values range from −30 °C (−22 °F) temperatures to −55 °C (−67 °F) in parts of the Arctic.[1][2]

On October 1, 2024, the NWS replaced the "wind chill warning" with the "extreme cold warning" for the same reasons. The standards governing issuance are set by local NWS offices. The step below an extreme cold warning is an "extreme cold watch," which itself replaced the "wind chill watch" in October 2024.[3][4]

Canada

[edit]

An extreme cold warning is issued when the following temperatures are expected to last for at least two hours, which different regions have different criteria for:[2]

United States

[edit]

In the United States an extreme cold warning was an experimental weather warning issued by the National Weather Service in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota.[5] The warning was issued if the temperature fell to −35 °F (−37 °C) or colder with a wind of less than 5 mph (8 km/h; 2 m/s).[6] It was an experimental advisory for when the air temperature was dangerously cold, but the wind was too little to warrant a Wind Chill Watch or Warning.[7]

The Extreme Cold Warning was used from January 10, 2011 to April 15, 2011.[8] It was discontinued beginning with the 2011-12 winter storm season. Only five Extreme Cold Warnings were issued in that period: one for Burleigh County, three for areas outside of the Bismarck–Mandan metropolitan area, and one for West Glacier, Montana[9]

In a partner webinar on October 30, 2018, the National Weather Service announced that based on survey feedback, the Extreme Cold Warning and the Wind Chill Warning will be consolidated into the Extreme Cold Warning, meaning that this product would once again be issued on a regular basis. This change was hinted to take effect sometime in 2021, accounting for NWS software upgrades.[10][11] This was confirmed at the AMS 2024 meeting in January 2024.

In October 2024, the NWS officially implemented these changes to its wind chill and hard freeze warnings, watches, and advisories (WWAs) as part of its "Hazard Simplification initiative." The goal of these WWA name changes, per the NWS, is "simplifying a suite of cold weather forecast products to improve messaging of winter hazards and provide better decision support." The changes include:[12][13]

Extreme Cold Consolidation and Renaming

  • Wind Chill Watch was renamed to Extreme Cold Watch
  • Wind Chill Warning was renamed to Extreme Cold Warning
  • Wind Chill Advisory was renamed to Cold Weather Advisory

Freeze Consolidation

  • Hard Freeze Watch was renamed to Freeze Watch
  • Hard Freeze Warning was consolidated to Freeze Warning


Local NWS offices will still determine the standards governing the issuance of such WWAs.

Example of an Extreme Cold Warning (United States)

[edit]
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
451 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

MNZ054-056>060-062-064>070-073>077-082>085-091>093-210700-
/O.UPG.KMPX.CW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250121T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KMPX.EC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250121T1800Z/
Lac Qui Parle-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Ramsey-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-
Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
Including the cities of Chanhassen, Waseca, Mankato, Fairmont,
Victoria, Albert Lea, Olivia, St James, Hastings, Owatonna,
Gaylord, Minneapolis, Granite Falls, Willmar, Monticello,
Madison, Litchfield, Hutchinson, Montevideo, Faribault, Chaska,
St Peter, Le Sueur, New Ulm, Redwood Falls, St Paul, Shakopee,
and Blue Earth
451 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 37 below.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central,
  southwest, and west central Minnesota.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite
  on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay indoors until conditions improve. If you
must go outside, dress in layers. Several layers of clothes will
keep you warmer than a single heavy coat. Cover exposed skin to
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia. Gloves, a scarf, and a
hat will keep you from losing your body heat.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure
portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills
inside.

&&

$$

Example of an Extreme Cold Warning (Canada)

[edit]
3:15 PM CST Monday 3 February 2025
Extreme Cold Warning in effect for:

City of Regina

A multi-day episode of very cold wind chills is expected.

Dangerous wind chill values of minus 40 or colder continue.

Overnight low temperatures approaching minus 30 coupled with winds of 10 to 15 km/h will produce extremely cold wind chill values of minus 40 to minus 45 over the coming days. 

Snow moving in from the United States will likely push regions between the international border and the Transcanada Highway above extreme cold thresholds by Tuesday morning. However, areas to the north, in the vicinity of the Yellowhead, will continue with the bitterly cold temperatures into Wednesday morning. 

Temperatures are expected to moderate for most by Thursday.

Extreme cold puts everyone at risk.

Risks are greater for young children, older adults, people with chronic illnesses, people working or exercising outdoors, and those without proper shelter.

Watch for cold related symptoms: shortness of breath, chest pain, muscle pain and weakness, numbness and colour change in fingers and toes.

Cover up. Frostbite can develop within minutes on exposed skin, especially with wind chill.

If it’s too cold for you to stay outside, it’s too cold for your pet to stay outside.

Outdoor workers should take regularly scheduled breaks to warm up.

Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to SKstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #SKStorm.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia

Extreme cold warning

View on Grokipedia
from Grokipedia
An extreme cold warning is a high-level weather alert issued by national meteorological services in , primarily the United States' (NWS) and (ECCC), to warn of dangerously low air temperatures or values that can cause , , or other life-threatening cold-related injuries within minutes of outdoor exposure. These warnings are designed to prompt immediate protective actions, such as limiting time outdoors, wearing multiple layers of clothing, and covering all exposed skin, particularly for vulnerable populations including the elderly, children, and those experiencing . In the United States, extreme cold warnings—previously known as wind chill warnings—have criteria that vary by NWS forecast office to reflect regional differences in climate and population , but they are generally triggered when values are forecast to reach or fall below dangerous levels for several hours, indicating conditions where unprotected skin can freeze in under 30 minutes. The NWS also issues extreme cold watches up to 48 hours in advance when such conditions are possible, allowing time for preparation. In , ECCC employs region-specific thresholds for extreme cold warnings to account for geographic and climatic variations, requiring the temperature or to fall to or below the limit for at least two consecutive hours. Such alerts are particularly critical in , where extreme cold events can affect transportation, infrastructure, and wildlife, and they often coincide with advisories emphasizing indoor heating and emergency shelter access. The issuance of these warnings has evolved with improved forecasting technology and research on cold stress, aiming to reduce cold-related deaths, which number around 4,000 annually (2000–2020) and contribute to thousands across despite modern infrastructure. By providing timely notifications through broadcasts, apps, and emergency systems, extreme cold warnings play a vital role in public safety during polar vortex outbreaks or prolonged masses.

Overview

Definition

An extreme cold warning is a high-level weather alert issued by national meteorological services in , specifically (ECCC) and the (NWS), to notify the public of dangerously low temperatures or values that pose significant risks to life and property. This warning signals conditions where extreme cold is expected to persist, typically for several hours, creating an imminent threat that demands immediate protective measures such as limiting outdoor exposure. Key characteristics of an extreme cold warning include its focus on sustained hazardous cold that endangers human health through risks like and , as well as potential damage to such as pipes and transportation systems, and threats to . Unlike routine updates, this alert is reserved for emergency-level events where the cold's severity warrants urgent action, often coordinated with public safety agencies to emphasize preparation and response. This warning differs from milder cold-related alerts, such as advisories or statements, which provide informational guidance for less severe conditions without implying the same degree of . For instance, while an advisory might recommend caution for uncomfortable but non-life-threatening , an extreme cold warning indicates a critical situation requiring immediate protective actions such as staying indoors, limiting outdoor exposure, and seeking shelter if necessary. Although primarily a North American term, analogous alert systems exist globally, such as cold wave warnings issued by meteorological services in through platforms like MeteoAlarm or in by agencies like India's , which address similar extreme cold hazards tailored to regional climates.

Purpose and Importance

Extreme cold warnings serve as critical alerts issued by meteorological agencies, such as (ECCC) and the (NWS), to notify the public, government entities, and emergency services of impending hazardous cold conditions that pose significant risks to human health and safety. The primary objective is to enable proactive measures that prevent fatalities, injuries, and societal disruptions, including the activation of warming shelters, issuance of travel advisories, and coordination of response efforts by local authorities. By disseminating timely information through broadcast media, mobile alerts, and official channels, these warnings facilitate community-level preparations that mitigate the impacts of severe cold snaps. The importance of extreme cold warnings lies in their proven role in reducing cold-related health incidents, particularly and , which are exacerbated in vulnerable populations such as the elderly, homeless individuals, children, and outdoor workers. In urban areas, where can strain resources like emergency shelters, warnings prompt the opening of warming centers to protect at-risk groups from exposure; in rural regions, they emphasize self-reliance measures like checking on isolated neighbors to address logistical challenges in remote access. These alerts are especially vital given that cold weather contributes to a disproportionate share of weather-related deaths compared to , with non-optimal cold temperatures linked to millions of global fatalities annually. A 2014 evaluation in demonstrated the effectiveness of such warnings, finding that 86.6% of households received the alert and 78.9% took protective actions, such as layering clothing and preparing vehicles, thereby enhancing overall resilience.00081-4/fulltext) On a broader scale, extreme cold warnings integrate seamlessly with national emergency management frameworks, such as Canada's public weather alert system and the U.S. Integrated Public Alert and Warning System, allowing for coordinated responses that amplify protective messaging and resource allocation. This integration supports emergency services in prioritizing aid to high-risk areas and informs public health campaigns on cold injury prevention. In the post-2010s era, the purpose of these warnings has evolved from primarily informational wind chill advisories to more actionable, comprehensive alerts—ECCC introduced the "extreme cold warning" in 2014 to better encompass temperature dangers beyond wind effects, while the NWS formalized extreme cold products in 2024 to address misconceptions and improve clarity amid varying climate patterns. This shift underscores their growing significance in adapting to regional cold events influenced by broader atmospheric variability.

History

In Canada

Extreme cold warnings in Canada trace their roots to earlier wind chill advisories issued by Environment Canada (now , or ECCC), which focused on wind-exacerbated cold risks dating back to at least the late . The wind chill index itself, developed in the 1940s by U.S. researchers Paul Siple and Charles Passel during expeditions, was adopted internationally, including in , to quantify under windy conditions. A significant evolution occurred in April 2014, when ECCC replaced the wind chill warning system with the broader extreme cold warning to address dangers from low temperatures even in calm winds, better reflecting health risks like and . This change, implemented on April 8, 2014, standardized alerts across regions while varying thresholds by local climate. The update was prompted by research emphasizing cold stress beyond wind effects and aimed to improve public safety during severe winter events.

In the United States

In the United States, the concept of emerged from mid-20th-century research, with the original index introduced in 1945 based on experiments in . However, the (NWS) did not formally implement a standardized wind chill temperature (WCT) index until the 2001–2002 winter season, replacing an older formula to more accurately depict heat loss from exposed skin. This update facilitated the issuance of wind chill advisories and warnings by local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), which began alerting the public to life-threatening cold conditions varying by region. Prior to 2024, these were specifically termed wind chill watches, warnings, and advisories, triggered primarily by combined wind and temperature effects. Effective , 2024, as part of the NWS Hazard Simplification initiative, these products were unified and renamed: wind chill warnings became extreme cold warnings, emphasizing risks from extreme low temperatures or values regardless of wind presence. This renaming sought to simplify messaging and enhance comprehension of cold hazards.

Criteria and Issuance

In Canada

In Canada, extreme cold warnings are issued by (ECCC) when forecasted temperatures or values meet or exceed regional thresholds, indicating a significant risk to human health from prolonged exposure. These warnings replaced the earlier warning system in April 2014 to better account for both wind-affected and calm conditions that could lead to or . The criteria vary by province and territory to reflect local norms, , and levels, with thresholds generally higher (less severe) in southern, more populated regions and lower (more severe) in the north. The issuance process begins with numerical weather prediction models, such as the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, which forecast conditions 24 to 48 hours in advance based on current atmospheric data. Once thresholds are projected to be met for at least two consecutive hours, meteorologists at regional forecast offices evaluate the event's duration, intensity, and potential impacts before issuing the alert through ECCC's national system. Warnings are typically in effect for 12 to 72 hours or until conditions moderate, and they may be updated or extended as forecasts evolve. Key factors considered include not only and but also the expected persistence of the cold and vulnerabilities in affected areas, such as urban centers with higher at-risk populations like the elderly or homeless. Dissemination occurs rapidly via the system, Canada's National Public Alerting System, which broadcasts warnings to television, radio, wireless devices, and the ECCC website and mobile app. Alerts are issued in both English and French, often accompanied by color-coded risk maps on weather.gc.ca to highlight affected regions and severity levels, enabling targeted public response. Recent enhancements to the program, informed by projections showing more variable winter extremes, have emphasized proactive forecasting to address increasing frequency of such events in transitional seasons.
RegionThreshold (Temperature or Wind Chill)Duration Required
South-central/Southwestern ≤ -30°C≥ 2 hours
Southeastern , Southern Interior/Coastal , (except )≤ -35°C≥ 2 hours
Western/Central/Eastern ≤ -38°C≥ 2 hours
Central Interior , , Prairies (, Southern , Southern )≤ -40°C≥ 2 hours
Far , , , , ≤ -45°C≥ 2 hours
≤ -48°C≥ 2 hours
, (except , , ), (except , Hall Beach), Extreme Northeast ≤ -50°C≥ 2 hours
≤ -52°C≥ 2 hours
(, , ), (, Hall Beach), Western/Northern ≤ -55°C≥ 2 hours
These thresholds ensure warnings are calibrated to local conditions, prioritizing areas where cold poses an outsized threat relative to typical winter weather.

In the United States

, extreme cold warnings are issued by local offices of the (NWS) to alert the public to life-threatening cold conditions that pose significant risks to health and safety. These warnings focus on either air temperatures or values that meet or exceed locally defined thresholds, emphasizing the dangers of prolonged exposure regardless of wind presence. Criteria for issuing an extreme cold warning are established by individual NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and vary by region to account for local and vulnerabilities. Typically, a warning is triggered when values reach or fall below -20°F to -35°F for at least three hours, or when air temperatures drop to -20°F or lower in the presence of light winds. In northern regions, thresholds are often stricter, such as -25°F north of Interstate 80 or -30°F in areas like south of certain lines. Adjustments may consider urban heat islands, where built environments can slightly mitigate cold in cities, potentially influencing forecast refinements for densely populated areas. The issuance process relies on a combination of models, such as the (GFS), observational data from weather stations, and forecaster expertise to predict conditions with high confidence. Warnings are typically issued with a of up to 48 hours when extreme cold is imminent, while extreme cold watches—indicating potential conditions—are released 24 to 48 hours in advance to allow preparation. This structured approach ensures timely alerts for events expected to persist for several hours. Regional variations reflect climatic differences, with southern states employing higher thresholds to address rarer but still hazardous cold snaps; for instance, warnings may activate at -15°F in southern portions of forecast areas like New York or . Effective October 1, 2024, the NWS unified wind chill-specific products into broader extreme cold warnings to simplify messaging and clarify that severe cold dangers apply with or without wind, enhancing public comprehension. Warnings are disseminated through multiple channels, including , the , to mobile devices, NWS apps, and partnerships with media outlets. They incorporate risks to , such as the potential for unprotected to freeze and burst during sustained subfreezing temperatures, and are coordinated with state and local agencies to support response planning.

Examples

United States Example

In January 2025, a significant North American cold wave brought extreme Arctic air to the Midwest , prompting the (NWS) to issue Extreme Cold Warnings for several states, including . On January 20, 2025, the NWS Chicago office (LOT) issued such a warning for northern and western counties, effective from the evening of January 20 until noon on January 21, forecasting wind chills ranging from -30°F to -35°F that would persist for over 24 hours. The warning bulletin highlighted the life-threatening conditions, stating: "An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect until noon... Dangerous cold will continue through noon! Wind chills of -25 to -35 expected... Limit outdoor time." This phrasing urged immediate protective actions, aligning with NWS guidelines for apparent temperatures below critical thresholds in the region. The event impacted approximately 50 million people across the Midwest, with facing heightened urban vulnerabilities due to its dense and strain from the prolonged freeze. Responses included the closure of over 100 schools, daycares, and colleges in the Chicago area, alongside widespread flight cancellations at O'Hare and Midway airports, disrupting for thousands. Outcomes were mitigated by the advance warnings, resulting in no major fatalities directly linked to in the affected counties, though the contributed to broader regional challenges.

Canada Example

A notable example of an extreme cold warning in occurred during the late December 2021 cold snap affecting . On December 27, 2021, (ECCC) issued extreme cold warnings for and , forecasting temperatures as low as -45°C with wind chills reaching -55°C, expected to persist for at least 48 hours across the Prairies. The warnings were disseminated through ECCC's public alert system in both English and French to reach diverse populations, including Indigenous communities and recent immigrants in rural areas. A typical warning statement read: "Extreme cold warning in effect... Wind chill values as low as -55... Stay indoors if possible," emphasizing risks of and within minutes of exposure. This event severely impacted the Prairies, leading to infrastructure strain such as burst water mains and cracked urban rail lines in cities like , alongside record-high demand for and for heating. Road maintenance was halted in due to unsafe conditions for crews, resulting in delayed clearing and temporary closures of highways and ski facilities like Rabbit Hill. In response, the City of extended its extreme weather protocol—activated earlier in —deploying warming buses outside shelters and opening additional temporary warming spaces to protect vulnerable residents from the life-threatening cold. The warnings and coordinated responses mitigated some risks, with free overnight transit services and extra shelter beds helping to shelter those without homes; events like Calgary's outdoor festivals were postponed to prioritize safety. Bilingual dissemination ensured broader accessibility, particularly in multicultural urban centers and remote regions.

Impacts and Safety

Health Risks

Extreme cold conditions pose significant physiological threats, primarily through and . occurs when the body's core temperature drops below 35°C (95°F), impairing normal bodily functions and potentially leading to organ failure if untreated. involves the freezing of skin and underlying tissues, often affecting exposed areas like fingers, toes, ears, and the face, and can result in permanent damage or in severe cases. These risks are exacerbated by wind, which accelerates heat loss through , effectively reducing the insulating effect of clothing and skin; for instance, at a of -20°C (-4°F), can develop on exposed skin in less than 30 minutes. Certain populations face heightened vulnerability to these dangers, including the elderly, young children, outdoor workers, and individuals experiencing , due to factors like reduced thermoregulatory capacity, limited access to , or prolonged exposure. Without adequate warnings or preparation, these groups experience elevated mortality risks during extreme events, as evidenced by studies on unmitigated cold snaps. Beyond direct freezing injuries, extreme cold induces secondary health effects such as cardiovascular strain, where low temperatures cause blood vessels to constrict, elevating and increasing the risk of heart attacks by approximately 30%. Improper use of heating sources during cold spells, like unvented space heaters or generators, also heightens the risk of , which can lead to headaches, , and death from oxygen deprivation. Prolonged or repeated exposure to extreme cold is linked to long-term respiratory complications, including exacerbated chronic and increased incidence of airway or hyperreactivity. From 1999 to 2022, cold-related deaths averaged approximately 1,700 annually in the alone, with reporting an average of 129 per year from 2011 to 2023; recent data as of 2022 show 3,571 deaths in the , reflecting a 3.4% annual increase since 1999 driven by factors like and events.

Protective Measures

To protect against the dangers of extreme cold during a warning, individuals should prioritize layering clothing to trap and prevent buildup. The recommended approach involves a moisture-wicking base layer made from synthetic or fabrics to draw sweat away from the skin, an insulating mid-layer such as fleece or for warmth retention, and a waterproof, windproof outer shell to block elements. Extremities must be covered with hats, scarves, gloves, and insulated boots to minimize heat loss, as these areas are particularly vulnerable. Exposure time outdoors should be limited, especially in severe conditions, where staying outside for no more than 15 minutes at a time is advised to avoid rapid onset of cold-related injuries. At home, maintaining an indoor of at least 21°C (70°F) is crucial to prevent , achieved by using heating systems efficiently and avoiding overuse of space heaters that could pose fire risks. Sealing drafts around doors, windows, and vents with or towels helps conserve heat, while preparing an kit stocked with blankets, non-perishable food, , and a battery-powered radio ensures readiness for power outages lasting up to 72 hours. For those in colder climates, insulating pipes and keeping garage doors closed further aids in retaining warmth. Community-level responses enhance collective safety by activating warming shelters in public buildings like schools or community centers when temperatures drop critically low. Residents are encouraged to check on vulnerable neighbors, such as the elderly or those with mobility issues, and to avoid non-essential travel to reduce accident risks on icy roads. Pets should be brought indoors if temperatures fall below -20°C (-4°F), with provisions for outdoor animals including insulated shelters and unfrozen water sources. Transportation authorities may advise on road closures, emphasizing preparation like full fuel tanks and emergency car kits. Official guidelines from the (NWS) and (ECCC) stress additional preventive steps, such as staying hydrated since cold air can dehydrate the body faster than expected, and recognizing early symptoms of cold stress like or to seek warmth promptly. Following the 2020 polar vortex events, both agencies have increasingly highlighted support during prolonged isolation, recommending virtual check-ins and access to crisis hotlines to combat and related psychological strains. These measures collectively reduce the incidence of and by promoting proactive behaviors.

References

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