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Drawing lots (decision making)
Drawing lots (decision making)
Drawing lots (decision making)
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Four matches, one broken to be shorter than the others, presented to a group to draw from

Drawing lots or drawing straws is a selection method, or a form of sortition, that is used by a group to choose one member of the group to perform a task after none has volunteered for it. The same practice can be used also to choose one of several volunteers, should an agreement not be reached.

The drawing of lots is sometimes used to determine which candidate is elected where the candidates have the same number of votes. In the United Kingdom, drawing lots can be used to decide on the allocation of school places where other criteria result in a tie.[1]

Process

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The group leader takes a number of straws (or similarly long cylindrical objects) and ensures that one of them is physically shorter than the others. The leader then grabs all of the straws in their fist, such that all of them appear to be of the same length.

The group leader offers the clenched fist to the group. Each member of the group draws a straw from the fist of the group leader. At the end of the offering, the group member who has drawn the shortest straw is the one who must perform the task.

Straws can also be cut diagonally so no two are the same length when multiple lots are to be chosen with a single draw to determine something like playing order, which participants will be teamed up, etc. No two straws the same length prevents ties and redraws among remaining participants where the short straw must be reused and a long straw that is in fact only one of several identical straws discarded. A short straw that is reused can end up marked either accidentally or intentionally and be readily identified and intentionally avoided or selected by a clever participant in subsequent draws. Drawing straws as an alternative to a coin toss and "odd man out" is only fair when it creates a level playing field and multiple random chance processes for fair results are reduced to a single random event.

Politics

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Canada

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In the 2021 Yukon territorial election, one seat was determined by drawing of lots due to a tie.[2]

United Kingdom

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In the United Kingdom, if a local or national election has resulted in a tie in which candidates receive exactly the same number of votes after three recounts, the winner must be decided by random selection.

On 5 May 2017, Local election candidates in Northumberland drew straws to decide the winner in South Blythe Ward. Liberal Democrat candidate Lesley Rickerby was declared the winner, denying Conservatives overall control of Northumberland County Council.[3]

United States

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On 20 November 2015, a Mississippi state election was settled by drawing straws after both candidates received 4,589 votes. This resulted in Blaine Eaton being re-elected to the Mississippi House of Representatives.[4]

See also

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References

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Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia

Drawing lots (decision making)

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from Grokipedia
Drawing lots, also known as casting lots or , is a procedure that employs random selection to allocate tasks, roles, resources, or representatives among participants, thereby ensuring by circumventing subjective judgments or power imbalances. This method has been employed across civilizations to resolve uncertainties and distribute burdens or benefits equitably, predating written records and persisting into contemporary applications such as randomized clinical trials. Historically, drawing lots featured prominently in ancient societies, including the where it appears roughly seventy times in the and seven in the as a means to discern outcomes attributed to , such as dividing land or identifying culprits. In , selected jurors and many public officials—constituting about ninety percent of positions—to embody egalitarian ideals and prevent , contrasting with elections reserved for military leaders. Roman and other Near Eastern cultures similarly used , interpreting lot outcomes as oracular guidance rather than mere chance. Proponents highlight drawing lots' capacity to neutralize , factionalism, and competence biases inherent in elections or appointments, fostering representative outcomes reflective of diversity without incentivizing performative appeals. Critics contend it disregards merit and expertise, potentially yielding suboptimal decisions by prioritizing equiprobability over evidence-based selection, and may erode individual agency by subordinating human discernment to processes. These tensions underpin ongoing debates over reviving in , as in proposals for "lottocracies" to supplant electoral systems plagued by incumbency advantages and voter .

Definition and Fundamentals

Core Concept and Purpose

Drawing lots, also referred to as casting lots, constitutes a rudimentary technique for , wherein participants or options are chosen through the random drawing of marked objects, such as straws, pebbles, or , from a concealed set. This ensures that no individual exerts deliberate control over the outcome, thereby minimizing opportunities for strategic manipulation or preference-based selection. The core purpose of drawing lots lies in achieving impartiality and equity, particularly in scenarios involving the distribution of undesirable tasks, scarce resources, or contested roles among equals. By substituting chance for human discretion, it enforces equal probability for all contenders, countering inherent biases that arise from , , or perceived merit—factors that often skew outcomes toward the influential or persuasive. Empirical applications demonstrate its efficacy in fostering consensus without , as the randomness absolves participants of responsibility for adverse results. In essence, drawing lots operationalizes a first-principles approach to fairness: when fails to yield agreement or risks partiality, probabilistic equivalence provides a verifiable mechanism for resolution, applicable from informal group choices to formalized allocations. While ancient practitioners often interpreted results as providential, contemporary usage treats it as a probabilistic tool, devoid of attribution unless contextually specified.

Relation to Sortition and Randomization

Drawing lots constitutes a primary mechanism for implementing , defined as the random selection of individuals to fill public offices or deliberative roles, thereby ensuring impartiality and representativeness without reliance on elections or qualifications. In ancient , via drawing lots was employed extensively from the 5th century BCE onward to allocate positions such as the 500-member and various magistrates, with mechanisms like the —a lottery device using colored pebbles or tokens—to prevent favoritism and promote among eligible male citizens. This practice reflected a commitment to egalitarian principles, as randomness neutralized aristocratic influence and risks inherent in voting, fostering causal fairness by distributing power probabilistically across the populace. Sortition extends the randomization principle of drawing lots from decisions—such as selecting a single option among alternatives—to systemic selection of decision-makers, aiming to mirror the demographic composition of the broader population. Empirical analyses of historical , including ' multi-stage lotteries combining pre-qualification with random draws, demonstrate its role in mitigating , though outcomes depended on pool size and eligibility criteria; for instance, excluded women, slaves, and metics, limiting full representativeness. Modern proponents of , drawing on these precedents, advocate randomized citizen assemblies for policy deliberation, as seen in experiments like Ireland's 2016 Convention on the , where lots selected 66 ordinary citizens alongside politicians to recommend reforms on issues like , yielding inputs that influenced referenda. While drawing lots typically resolves discrete choices through chance (e.g., short straws for task assignment), applies randomization to empower a group for ongoing , addressing collective decision-making challenges like by bypassing preference aggregation in favor of descriptive representation. Both methods leverage probabilistic equity to counteract deterministic biases in human judgment, but sortition's scale introduces scalability issues, such as ensuring informed post-selection, which ancient systems mitigated via rotation and short terms—typically one year without re-eligibility. Critics, including , argued against sortition's reliance on unmerited chance, favoring expertise, yet from Athenian stability (lasting over 180 years) suggests randomization's causal efficacy in sustaining democratic resilience against oligarchic coups.

Historical Development

Ancient Practices

In ancient Near Eastern societies, such as those of and the during the second millennium BCE, casting lots functioned as a tool for , revealing what was perceived as predestined outcomes ordained by deities rather than arbitrary chance. records indicate its application in resolving disputes, allocating resources, and guiding rulers, with gods themselves depicted as employing lots in mythological texts to underscore its legitimacy in governance and ritual contexts. The practice attained systematic prominence in from the archaic period circa 750 BCE, as referenced in Homeric epics and Hesiod's poetry, where it ensured impartial division of , sacrificial meat, colonial territories, and spoils among predefined groups of equals. This egalitarian mechanism, rooted in the cultural norm of moira (allotted portion), proliferated across over 1,000 poleis by 323 BCE, serving to avert conflicts and embody collective fairness in pre-democratic settings like land distributions in Cyrene and stasis resolutions in Herakleia and Nakone. In classical Athens, following Cleisthenes' tribal reforms of 508 BCE, sortition evolved into a foundational democratic tool, randomly assigning citizens to the ten tribes, selecting the 500 members of the Boule annually, appointing jurors (up to 6,000 per year), and filling many archonships—a practice foreshadowed by Solon's allotment of the Nine Archons around 594 BCE. Devices like the kleroterion, a bronze slot machine using inscribed lots or pointers, facilitated efficient selection of qualified volunteers, countering electoral corruption and enabling ordinary citizens' participation in governance without reliance on wealth or rhetoric. Beans or pebbles served as common physical media for drawing, preserving anonymity and equality. While less dominant in republican Rome, where elections prevailed for magistracies, lots determined assembly voting sequences via inscribed tablets and selected soldiers for decimation, reflecting procedural impartiality in military and electoral logistics.

Biblical and Religious Traditions

In the Hebrew Bible, casting lots—known as goral in Hebrew, implying a divinely apportioned share—was employed for impartial decision-making in matters such as land division among Israelite tribes, as detailed in Joshua 14–21, where lots determined territorial allotments to ensure fairness under perceived divine oversight. The practice also featured in ritual contexts, including the selection of the scapegoat during the Day of Atonement (Leviticus 16:8–10), where lots distinguished the goat for sacrifice from the one sent into the wilderness bearing communal sins. Proverbs 16:33 articulates the theological rationale: "The lot is cast into the lap, but its every decision is from the Lord," reflecting a worldview where randomness served as a conduit for divine will rather than mere chance. This tradition persisted into the , notably in Acts 1:21–26, where the apostles cast lots to select Matthias as Judas Iscariot's replacement among the Twelve, narrowing candidates through prayer and then to maintain apostolic continuity before . Earlier, Roman soldiers cast lots for ' seamless garment at the (John :23–24), fulfilling :18, though this instance lacked explicit religious intent from the casters. Post-al Christian texts and interpretations generally shifted away from lots toward discernment via the , viewing pre- uses as transitional. In later Jewish practice, lots retained utility for equitable divisions, such as inheritance or priestly duties, but rabbinic sources increasingly emphasized human judgment over randomization to avoid perceived reliance on fate. Certain Eastern Orthodox traditions extended the method into ecclesiastical elections; for instance, in 1917, lots were drawn to confirm Metropolitan Tikhon as Patriarch of Moscow amid competing claims. The Coptic Orthodox Church has historically used drawing lots for selecting popes when multiple finalists emerge, attributing outcomes to providence. These instances underscore lots as a mechanism blending chance with faith, invoked sparingly in high-stakes religious governance to circumvent human bias.

Medieval and Early Modern Uses

In the medieval Italian city-republics, reemerged as a mechanism for allocating public offices, particularly to mitigate factional strife and broaden participation beyond elite networks. In , the tratta system, instituted in 1328, entailed placing names of eligible citizens into pouches from which magistrates such as priors were drawn by lot, ensuring rotation and reducing risks associated with elections. Similar practices appeared in other communes like and , where lots determined councilors and administrators, reflecting a blend of egalitarian ideals with safeguards against . The exemplifies the intricate integration of into governance during the late medieval and early modern periods. From the 1268 reform onward, Doge elections involved sequential lotteries: a child drew 30 electors from the Great Council, who then selected 9 by vote, followed by further drawings and ballots to nominate and confirm candidates, culminating in a vote. This multi-stage process, refined over centuries, aimed to prevent any single family or alliance from dominating, with over 500 years of application demonstrating its role in sustaining oligarchic stability amid republican forms. In , persisted in certain cantons to counter in office allocation. Between 1640 and 1837, random selection filled administrative and judicial roles in places like and , prioritizing impartiality over hereditary or elective favoritism and aligning with confederal traditions of direct citizen involvement. Practices extended to Early Modern and other polities, where lots apportioned tasks in assemblies or resolved disputes, underscoring sortition's utility in decentralized systems wary of centralized power concentration.

Methods and Techniques

Traditional Techniques

Traditional techniques for drawing lots primarily involved physical randomization using everyday or specially prepared objects to ensure impartial selection. One prevalent method entailed placing marked lots—such as inscribed sticks, stones, or beans—into a container like an or vessel, shaking it to mix, and then blindly one or more items to determine the outcome. This approach, rooted in ancient practices, minimized human bias by relying on apparent chance, with variations including the use of beans for lot-based elections in rather than secret ballots. Another common technique was drawing straws or similar linear objects of unequal lengths, where participants selected blindly from a bundled handful, and the person drawing the shortest bore the designated task or consequence. Documented as a group selection method by the , this practice likely drew from earlier folk traditions for its simplicity and accessibility using natural materials like straw or reeds. Casting dice or (astragali) represented an early numerical variant, employed in ancient and to generate outcomes based on rolled values, often interpreted via predefined rules. These methods collectively emphasized verifiable through observable, non-manipulable processes, predating formalized .

Modern Adaptations and Tools

In the , drawing lots has transitioned from physical artifacts to digital platforms and algorithms, enabling scalable, verifiable random selection for decision-making in both informal and institutional contexts. Computer-based generators (RNGs), particularly true RNGs deriving from physical sources like , provide unbiased outcomes superior to pseudorandom algorithms for high-stakes fairness, as used in lotteries and contests. Services such as facilitate virtual draws by randomizing lists or simulating straw pulls, with applications in resolving ties, allocating resources, or selecting participants, ensuring transparency through sequence logging and verification. For deliberative processes like citizens' assemblies, specialized sortition software incorporates to achieve demographic proportionality while maintaining randomness. The Foundation's open-source StratifySelect tool selects registrants matching specified quotas for age, gender, and other traits, employing an algorithm deemed the fairest in a 2021 comparative analysis of selection methods. Similarly, newDemocracy's web-based stratified random selection tool, modeled on Python implementations, imports candidate data to generate balanced panels for policy deliberations, supporting large-scale . Open-source scripts like , developed for assemblies, use R programming to handle efficient random draws from extensive pools, accommodating thousands of potential participants without bias. Advanced adaptations leverage for secure, verifiable in distributed systems, evolving from ancient kleroteria to protocols using quantum or to prevent manipulation in elections or assignments. These tools address issues inherent in physical methods, with empirical testing confirming their impartiality in trials for democratic innovations.

Applications

Everyday and Informal Decision Making

Drawing lots in everyday and informal contexts involves simple techniques to resolve minor disputes, allocate tasks, or select options among equals, ensuring without prolonged debate. Common methods include flipping a , drawing straws of varying lengths, or picking slips from a , which have been employed for centuries to distribute duties or rewards fairly. These practices persist in modern settings, such as families assigning household chores by drawing names or friends determining the order of turns in games via coin tosses. In personal choices, individuals may use coin flips to break indecision on trivial matters, like selecting a or route, thereby avoiding and potential regret from overanalysis. Psychological insights indicate that such random selection eliminates biased reasoning, fostering quicker resolutions and perceived equity among participants. For instance, drawing the short straw or matchstick—where the shortest draw designates the undesired task—serves to equitably burden undesirable responsibilities, as seen in group decisions for errands or sacrifices. Empirical observations from randomization studies affirm the reliability of these tools; a fair coin toss yields outcomes indistinguishable from true 50-50 probability, supporting their use for binary informal choices. In group dynamics, methods like straw drawing prevent favoritism or arguments, promoting harmony in casual settings such as sports team rotations or shared expenses. While not suited for complex ethical dilemmas, these techniques excel in low-stakes scenarios by deferring to chance, which aligns with human tendencies toward fairness in symmetric situations.

Political and Governance Uses

In ancient , was the predominant method for allocating citizens to key political offices, including the 500-member Council of the (Boule), the ten archons, and other magistracies, from the fifth century BCE onward. This randomization, often facilitated by mechanical devices like the —a with slots for citizen tokens—prevented the concentration of power among elites and promoted egalitarian participation among eligible male citizens over 30. By the fourth century BCE, approximately 700 public positions were filled annually through lots, encompassing executive, legislative, and judicial roles such as jurors for the court, which handled thousands of cases yearly. Sortition persisted in other historical contexts to counter factionalism and corruption. In Venice, formalized in 1268, lots selected members of electoral committees and certain magistrates within a mixed system that included and voting, aiming to dilute aristocratic influence. employed broader application during republican periods, using rotating lotteries for short-term mandates in councils like the , enabling wider citizen rotation and reducing oligarchic capture compared to Venice's more restricted use. In modern governance, features in deliberative bodies for policy deliberation. Ireland's Citizens' Assemblies from 2016 to 2020, comprising 99 to 100 randomly selected citizens stratified by age, gender, and geography, influenced referendums on (2018) and (preceded by 2015 assembly), with recommendations adopted after expert testimony and voting. These assemblies demonstrated sortition's role in generating consensus on divisive issues, though implementation depended on parliamentary approval. Random draws also resolve electoral ties in various jurisdictions, ensuring impartial outcomes. In the United States, state laws permit drawing lots for tied legislative races; for instance, a 2017 Virginia House contest between David Yancey and Shelly Simonds ended with Yancey's name drawn from a bowl after a recount tied at 11,607 votes each. Similar methods, including ping-pong balls or dice, have decided primary ties, as in (2025) and (2025), underscoring randomization's utility in maintaining procedural fairness without favoring incumbents or campaigns.

Religious and Ceremonial Contexts

In ancient Israelite tradition, casting lots served as a method to discern divine will for decisions involving allocation of resources and roles, such as dividing the land of among the tribes as instructed in Joshua 18:6-10, where lots were cast before the Lord at Shiloh to determine tribal inheritances. Similarly, the practice allocated for temple service, as detailed in 1 Chronicles 24:5, where lots ensured impartial assignment among Aaron's descendants under King David's oversight. Proverbs 16:33 encapsulates the theological rationale: "The lot is cast into the lap, but its every decision is from the Lord," reflecting a belief that outcomes transcended to reveal providence. This method extended to sacrificial rites, notably on , where the high priest cast lots to designate one goat for the Lord and the other as the scapegoat bearing Israel's sins, per Leviticus 16:8, underscoring its role in ceremonial purification. In the , the apostles employed lots prior to to select Matthias as Judas Iscariot's replacement among the Twelve, with Acts 1:26 recording that "the lot fell to Matthias," after prayerful nomination, marking one of the last recorded instances in Christian scripture. Post-, the practice waned in , supplanted by direct guidance from the , as no further biblical examples occur after the Spirit's descent in Acts 2. Cleromancy, or divination by lots, appeared in broader ancient Near Eastern and Mediterranean religions for ceremonial decisions, including Greek and Roman oracles where objects like dice or beans were cast to interpret omens for leadership selections or omens in rituals. In Tibetan Buddhism, the golden urn lot-drawing ceremony, instituted by Qing Emperor Qianlong in 1793 and upheld as of 2025, confirms reincarnations of high lamas like the Dalai Lama by drawing names from a gilded urn in the Jokhang Temple, Lhasa, blending ritual with imperial oversight to resolve succession disputes. Such uses highlight lots' persistence in ceremonial contexts where impartiality and perceived divine sanction mitigate human bias in sacred hierarchies.

Other Specialized Uses

In clinical trials, randomization through drawing lots or equivalent methods ensures unbiased allocation of participants to treatment or control groups, minimizing and enabling about intervention effects. This practice originated in the 1920s with British medical statistician , who formalized in agricultural experiments, and was applied to human trials by 1948 in the Medical Research Council's trial for , where sealed envelopes containing random assignments were used to prevent foreknowledge of group placement. Modern randomized controlled trials (RCTs) rely on computer-generated random sequences, but the principle traces to lot-drawing equivalents for fairness and validity, as evidenced by their role in establishing efficacy for treatments like aspirin in prevention during the 1980s ISIS-2 trial. Scientific research funding allocation has seen proposals for lottery systems to counter biases in peer review, such as conservatism or favoritism toward established researchers. In 2016, economists like advocated modified lotteries where initial filters proposals for basic merit, followed by random selection among qualifiers to promote novelty and diversity. Empirical pilots, such as New Zealand's Health Research Council experimenting with partial lotteries in 2016-2018, showed increased funding for high-risk projects without compromising quality, as measured by post-award bibliometric outcomes. Similarly, a 2020 analysis argued lotteries outperform pure by reducing administrative costs and subjective distortions, drawing on to highlight how review panels undervalue unconventional ideas. In legal contexts, randomization via lotteries facilitates fair enforcement and experimentation. The U.S. employed a draft lottery from 1969 to 1972, assigning birth dates random numbers (1-366) via a mechanical drum draw televised on December 1, 1969, to determine order, achieving perceived equity over prior arbitrary methods. Regulatory agencies use random audits, such as the IRS's quadratic formula approximating lotteries for tax compliance checks since 1963, to deter evasion without universal scrutiny. Experimental legal scholarship proposes randomized trials of statutes, like varying enforcement rules across jurisdictions to test policy impacts, as outlined in a 2016 article advocating this for evidence-based lawmaking. Military applications include lot-drawing for high-stakes assignments, such as selecting sentinels or rations in resource-scarce operations, historically documented in Roman legions and persisting in modern simulations for training . In business, randomized lotteries allocate scarce resources like conference slots or pilot projects; for instance, some firms use them internally for deal prioritization to mitigate founder biases, though empirical data remains limited to case studies rather than large-scale trials.

Advantages and Empirical Evidence

Theoretical Benefits

Random selection for decision-making roles, or , theoretically embodies political equality by granting every eligible citizen an identical chance of participation, thereby avoiding the inequalities inherent in elections where outcomes favor those with superior resources, , or organizational support. This aligns with democratic principles positing that offices should reflect equal shares rather than competitive merit, as elections systematically privilege subsets of the population capable of mounting campaigns. By decoupling selection from persuasion or influence, prevents and , as no individual or faction can reliably predict or manipulate outcomes through , , or demagoguery; powerful interests thus lack incentives to invest in subverting a process governed by chance. This fosters decisions oriented toward the rather than partisan or sectional gains, addressing causal mechanisms in electoral systems where representatives prioritize re-election over substantive . Epistemically, enables the assembly of statistically representative bodies that incorporate diverse cognitive and experiential inputs, potentially yielding superior collective judgments through among ordinary citizens unselected for ideological conformity or professional expertise. Such diversity counters the homogeneity and echo-chamber effects observed in elected legislatures, where shared elite backgrounds limit and innovation in problem-solving. In symmetric decision scenarios lacking clear merit-based hierarchies, further ensures fairness by distributing opportunities without arbitrary exclusion, mirroring probabilistic equity in systems.

Evidence from Historical and Modern Trials

In ancient , was employed systematically from the mid-5th century BCE onward to select key officials and jurors, including the annual Boule of 500 citizens drawn by lot from the ten tribes (with from demes) and up to 6,000 jurors for the popular courts. This mechanism ensured rotation in office, limiting and promoting broad participation among adult male citizens, contributing to the system's endurance for over two centuries amid external pressures and internal reforms. Scholarly analysis attributes part of Athens' democratic resilience and economic outperformance relative to other Greek poleis to sortition's role in aggregating diverse knowledge and preventing oligarchic entrenchment, as evidenced by institutional stability and policy innovations like naval expansions. The on , convened in 2004, randomly selected 160 residents (stratified by gender, age, region, and other demographics) to assess the first-past-the-post system over 11 months of deliberation. The assembly unanimously recommended (STV), which received 57.7% support in the May 2005 but fell short of the 60% threshold for adoption. This trial demonstrated that randomly selected non-experts, supported by evidence and facilitation, could produce coherent, informed recommendations on complex institutional design, with post-assembly surveys indicating high participant satisfaction and perceived fairness. Ireland's Citizens' Assemblies from 2016 to 2018 utilized to select 99 citizens (plus an independent chair) for deliberations on issues like and , mirroring demographic proportions via random . The assembly on the Eighth Amendment recommended repealing the constitutional ban on , influencing a May 25, 2018, that passed with 66.4% approval, marking a shift from prior legislative gridlock on the topic. Empirical tracking showed participants' views evolving toward evidence-based consensus, with under-65-year-olds and median-income individuals most likely to adjust opinions post-deliberation, suggesting facilitates informed shifts without elite bias. Other modern trials, such as Oregon's Citizens' Initiative Review panels (initiated ), randomly select 24 voters per ballot measure to produce "citizens' statements" informed by expert testimony, which studies link to voters feeling better equipped and more trusting of the process. Across these cases, yields descriptively representative bodies that deliberate to outcomes aligning with broader public preferences when informed, outperforming polarized elected processes in legitimacy and reduced affective divides, though quantitative comparisons remain sparse due to few controlled replications.

Criticisms and Limitations

Practical Drawbacks

Random selection for roles risks assigning to individuals lacking specialized or competence, potentially resulting in suboptimal policies as complex issues require expertise that lay citizens may not possess without extensive support structures. Critics note that while promotes demographic representativeness, it disregards , exposing systems to decisions driven by external advisers or lobbyists who can manipulate proceedings due to informational asymmetries. Implementation challenges include vulnerability to tampering or errors in the selection process, which can undermine in the fairness of outcomes; even minor procedural flaws may amplify perceptions of illegitimacy in high-stakes . In large populations, the extremely low of individual selection—often less than 0.001% for national legislatures—can foster disengagement, as citizens feel detached from the process and less inclined to monitor or participate in broadly. Agenda-setting also proves difficult without established infrastructures, leaving allotted bodies reliant on or bureaucratic inputs that may predetermine priorities. Accountability mechanisms remain weaker than in electoral systems, where voters can oust underperformers; fixed terms in limit recourse against incompetence or , relying instead on internal dynamics or post-hoc reviews that prove less effective. Historically, ancient Athenian applications faced practical barriers like uncompensated service, which excluded poorer citizens unable to forgo wages, thus skewing participation toward the affluent and reducing true . Frequent of officials, intended to curb entrenchment, instead perpetuated cycles of inexperience, complicating consistent execution. Modern trials, such as citizens' assemblies, often encounter limits, with small-scale successes (e.g., groups of 100-500) failing to translate to national legislatures handling millions, where coordination and commitment wane.

Philosophical and Ethical Objections

Philosophers such as Plato have long criticized selection by lot for disregarding competence and expertise in governance. In The Republic, Plato likens choosing public officials via lottery to selecting a ship's pilot or physician by random draw, arguing that such a method ignores the necessity of specialized knowledge and virtue for effective decision-making, potentially leading to incompetent leadership and societal harm. Similarly, Socrates, as depicted in Xenophon's accounts, opposed sortition in political appointments, viewing it as incompatible with rational deliberation and more suited to moral anarchy than ordered polity. This objection extends to broader philosophical concerns about and merit. Random selection privileges chance over deliberative , which critics argue undermines the epistemic foundations of just rule by failing to align decisions with evidence-based competence; for instance, empirical studies of expertise show that domain-specific knowledge outperforms average-group deliberation in complex policy domains. Proponents of epistocracy, like , contend that lotteries exacerbate democratic incompetence by amplifying the influence of uninformed citizens, as random panels lack incentives for acquiring relevant information pre-selection. Ethically, drawing lots raises issues of and human dignity. By treating unequals as interchangeable, lotteries can produce arbitrary outcomes that bypass merit or need, fostering perceptions of unfairness; for example, allocating scarce resources via pure chance obscures deliberate value judgments and may violate principles of , as unequal abilities causally determine varying contributions to collective goods. Critics like those analyzing allocation argue that such mechanisms create an "illusion of ," deceiving participants into accepting randomness as impartial while evading accountability for prioritizing egalitarian optics over substantive equity. Moreover, random decision-makers bear reduced personal responsibility, as outcomes attributable to fortune rather than agency erode incentives for ethical vigilance and enable in high-stakes contexts. In religious and moral traditions, lotteries have faced scrutiny for appealing to ignorance or rather than providential intent. Historical uses, such as biblical casting of lots, were later reinterpreted as prefiguring divine order, but modern ethical analysis rejects them for decisions requiring , positing that true fairness demands transparent criteria over probabilistic . These objections persist in contemporary debates, where sortition's ethical legitimacy is questioned for potentially entrenching inefficiency without compensatory mechanisms for competence, as evidenced by trials showing random assemblies underperform bodies in predictive accuracy for impacts.

Modern Developments and Proposals

Deliberative Assemblies and Experiments

Deliberative assemblies utilizing involve the random selection of ordinary citizens to form temporary bodies that deliberate on complex policy issues, typically supplemented by expert testimony and facilitated discussions to generate informed recommendations. These experiments aim to counter the perceived flaws of elected representation, such as and polarization, by leveraging statistical representativeness and the epistemic benefits of diverse, non-professional . Selection processes often employ stratified random sampling to mirror demographic profiles, with sample sizes ranging from 100 to 200 participants to achieve reliability while minimizing costs. Notable trials include the Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform, convened in 2004 with 160 randomly selected residents who, after nine months of deliberation, recommended adopting the single transferable vote system; this proposal advanced to provincial referendums in 2005 (approved by 57.7% but failing a supermajority threshold) and 2009 (rejected by 61%). In Ireland, the 2016-2018 Citizens' Assembly comprised 99 randomly selected citizens who examined constitutional issues, including the Eighth Amendment on abortion; their recommendation to repeal the amendment contributed to a 2018 referendum where 66.4% voted in favor, leading to legalization. The French Citizens' Convention for Climate, launched in 2019 with 150 sortition-selected participants, proposed 149 measures to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, but only about 10% were fully enacted into law by 2021, with others diluted or abandoned amid government resistance. Empirical studies indicate substantial public support for such sortition-based assemblies, with a 2022 survey across 15 countries finding majority approval, particularly when participants are aware of the random selection mechanism ensuring equal inclusion chances. Outcomes demonstrate potential for consensus on contentious issues, as in Ireland's case where shifted views toward evidence-based reforms, though success hinges on binding implementation mechanisms absent in non-referential formats like France's. Critiques from trials highlight risks of facilitation influencing results and limited scalability, with agent-based models suggesting enhances legislative diversity but requires hybrid designs for sustained effectiveness. Overall, these experiments provide causal evidence that fosters descriptively representative , yielding recommendations more aligned with informed than elite-driven processes, albeit with variable policy uptake.

Advocacy for Lottocracy

Advocates of lottocracy argue that random selection of political representatives, rather than elections, better realizes by ensuring a statistically representative sample of the citizenry, free from the distortions of campaigning, wealth, and charisma. Philosopher Alexander Guerrero, in his 2024 book Lottocracy: Democracy Without Elections, contends that elections incentivize candidates to prioritize persuasive narratives over evidence-based , leading to policies influenced by donor interests and voter , whereas lottocratic bodies—selected by lottery and allotted time for informed discussion—would approximate the diverse perspectives of the . This approach draws on statistical sampling principles, where a randomly drawn group of sufficient size (e.g., 300-500 members) mirrors demographic traits like age, education, and with , reducing underrepresentation of marginalized groups who fare poorly in electoral . Proponents highlight empirical evidence from modern sortition experiments, such as citizens' assemblies (2016-2018), where randomly selected groups deliberated on issues like and , recommending reforms later ratified by with broad support. These bodies demonstrated competence in complex policy analysis after facilitated learning, countering claims of amateur incompetence; for instance, deliberative polls by James Fishkin since the 1990s have shown participants shifting toward more centrist, informed positions post-discussion. Guerrero proposes scaling this to full legislatures via multiple single-issue lottocratic panels, arguing it mitigates evident in electoral systems, where incumbents win 90-95% of reelections in the U.S. Congress due to advantages. Hélène Landemore, in Open Democracy (2020), advocates hybrid models incorporating sortition to enhance inclusivity, asserting that cognitive diversity from non-elite participants fosters innovative solutions, as seen in ancient where lotteries selected most officials, sustaining stability for centuries until supplanted by oligarchic elections. Earlier thinkers like John Burnheim, originator of "demarchy" in Is Democracy Possible? (1985), argued sortition curtails power-seeking motivations inherent in elections, promoting decisions oriented toward public good over personal ambition. Organizations like Sortition Foundation, founded in 2016, push for global adoption, citing reduced polarization in allotted assemblies compared to elected bodies. While critics note scalability challenges, advocates maintain that first-principles reasoning from and trial data support lottocracy as a causal remedy to electoral pathologies like voter and policy gridlock.

References

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  2. https://www.jameslindlibrary.org/articles/casting-and-drawing-lots-a-time-honoured-way-of-dealing-with-uncertainty-and-for-ensuring-fairness/
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  4. https://tidsskrift.dk/classicaetmediaevalia/article/view/145252/188450
  5. https://banr.foundation/true-representation-election-versus-sortition/
  6. https://byustudies.byu.edu/article/and-they-cast-lots-divination-democracy-and-josephus
  7. https://read.dukeupress.edu/common-knowledge/article/29/2/206/383908/Ignorance-Irrationality-Elections-and-Sortition
  8. https://equalitybylot.com/2020/04/30/advantages-and-disadvantages-of-sortition/
  9. https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/could-ditching-elections-save-democracy/
  10. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236343805_The_Luck_of_the_Draw_The_Role_of_Lotteries_in_Decision_Making
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