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Mark J. Penn (born January 15, 1954) is an American businessman, pollster, political strategist, and author.

Key Information

Penn is chairman and chief executive officer of Stagwell, a marketing group.[1][2] He was formerly chief strategy officer of Microsoft Corporation and chief executive officer of Burson-Marsteller. Penn is the author of the books Microtrends (2007) and Microtrends Squared (2018).[3]

Together with Douglas Schoen, he was co-founder of the polling firm PSB Research, whose clients included President Bill Clinton, British prime minister Tony Blair, and Bill Gates. Penn was a chief strategist and pollster in the Hillary Clinton 2008 presidential campaign. Penn later became a defender of Donald Trump, opposing his impeachment, reportedly consulting on his 2020 presidential campaign[4] (which Penn denies[5]), and alleging a "deep state" conspiracy against him.[6]

Early life and education

[edit]

Penn was born in New York City and raised in Riverdale. His father, a Lithuanian immigrant, was a kosher poultry-plant owner,[7] who died when Penn was 10 years old.[8] He was raised by his mother Blanche, who worked as a schoolteacher.[9] Both of his brothers credit Penn with keeping the family together after their father's death.[10] Penn graduated from Horace Mann School in Riverdale in 1972.[7] He conducted his first poll, which determined that the Horace Mann faculty was more liberal than was the country at large on the issue of civil rights, when he was 13,[11] as well as polling classmates about sex and drugs.[12]

Penn entered Harvard University in 1972. According to his brother, Penn was initially rejected, but he was able to get Harvard's dean to reverse the decision after taking the train to Boston and arguing his case.[10] At Harvard, Penn majored in political science and, as a city editor of the Harvard Crimson, wrote and reported 90 articles.[13] His work for the paper included reporting and analysis on buying a stereo,[14] the Cambridge City Council elections of 1975,[15] the Harvard admission process,[16] and the controversy over the proposed construction in Cambridge of the John F. Kennedy Library.[17][18] With Doug Schoen, who he attended Horace Mann School with, Penn co-founded Penn & Schoen – now the global market research firm Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates – in their dorm room.[7][19] He graduated from Harvard in 1976.[20]

Early political campaigns

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Ed Koch mayoral campaign of 1977 and 1985

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While Penn was a first-year law student at Columbia University in 1976, he and his business partner Douglas Schoen became the pollsters for congressman Ed Koch's second run for mayor of New York City. In 1977, with the campaign against Mario Cuomo for the Democratic nomination in full swing, Penn sought a way to conduct polls more quickly than the mainframe and punched card system he and Schoen were making use of at Columbia University. He purchased a self-assembled "microcomputer" kit and created a program that could compile polls in a fraction of the time than had been done before.[10] By creating this "overnight poll" system, Penn allowed the campaign to conduct polls to determine messages and evaluate tactics on a daily basis, a tactical advantage that contributed to Koch's eventual victory over Cuomo.[21]

Penn also played a significant role in Koch's campaign during the 1985 New York City mayoral election, for which he and Schoen developed direct mailings,[22] set up phone banks, organized volunteers and canvassers, and coordinated fundraising. That year, Koch won both the Democratic primary and the general election, defeating New York City Council President Carol Bellamy.[23]

Luis Herrera Campins presidential campaign of 1978 and Latin American politics

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In 1978, Penn conducted polling for the presidential campaign of Luis Herrera Campins in Venezuela. Because Venezuela did not at that time have universal phone coverage, Penn partnered with Venezuelan polling firms to go door-to-door to collect interviews. He also helped the campaign develop the slogan "Ya Basta," or "Enough," critical of the incumbent party's spending policies. Herrera carried the election by about 3%.[24]

The election marked the beginning of Penn's successful involvement in Latin American politics. Since 1979, Penn's firm has helped elect more than a half dozen heads of state in Latin America, including Venezuela's Carlos Andrés Pérez,[25] Belisario Betancur and Virgilio Barco Vargas of Colombia, and Leonel Fernández of the Dominican Republic.[21]

Menachem Begin 1981 campaign for prime minister

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In 1981, Penn & Schoen conducted polling for Menachem Begin's campaign for re-election as Prime Minister of Israel.[26] When Begin called Penn in January 1981, public polling for the June parliamentary election showed that Begin's party, Likud, would lose the elections by a margin of 58 seats for the rival Labor Party to 20 seats for Begin's Likud party. A New York Times article published in March of that year stated that Begin was "probably in his final months as Prime Minister."[27] Penn & Schoen applied the rapid polling techniques they had developed on Ed Koch's first campaign for mayor to provide Begin with a daily understanding of attitudes of the Israeli electorate.[21] Ultimately, Begin defeated Labor, led by Shimon Peres, by 10,405 votes out of more than 1.5 million cast.[28]

Corporate work

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In the late 1980s, Penn was the force behind his firm's drive to win corporate consulting clients. Texaco, which was experiencing image problems due to bankruptcy after the Pennzoil v. Texaco court case, was the firm's first major corporate client.[21]

In 1993, Penn, Schoen & Berland was engaged by AT&T's new advertising agency FCB to guide a response to the "Friends and Family" plan offered by MCI, a then-upstart competitor for AT&T's long-distance services. To help AT&T understand how best to counter MCI's strongest messages, Penn created the "mall testing" methodology for competitive advertising research. In the mall tests, Penn showed randomly selected mall shoppers MCI ads head-to-head with proposed new AT&T ads. Using this methodology, Penn's firm determined messages resulting in AT&T's "True" plan and its $200 million advertising campaign.[11] As a result of this campaign, by the end of 1994, AT&T had signed up 14 million new long-distance customers.[21]

Penn has been a strategic advisor to Bill Gates and Microsoft since the mid-1990s. Penn began working with Microsoft when the company faced antitrust litigation initiated by the U.S. Department of Justice.[11] Penn also created the famous "blue sweater" advertisement that featured Gates, which were intended to restore trust in the company amid the antitrust litigation.[29] In 2006, a survey of global opinion leaders found that Microsoft was the world's most trusted company, an accomplishment which The Wall Street Journal partially attributed to Penn's advice.[30]

His other corporate clients have included Ford Motor Company, Merck & Co., Verizon, BP, and McDonald's.[31]

Microsoft Corporation

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In July 2012, Penn was named Corporate Vice President for Strategic and Special Projects at Microsoft Corporation. Shortly after he came on board, he began a public relations campaign against Google on behalf of Bing. Just in time for the holiday shopping season, he created a commercial in which Microsoft criticized Google for biasing its shopping search results with paid advertisements. "Don't get Scroogled", the commercial warned. In August 2013, Penn was named Executive Vice President for Advertising and Strategy. In that role, he pioneered Microsoft's "Honestly" campaign [32] and the award-winning Super Bowl 2014 ad "Empowering Us All".[33] In March 2014, he was named executive vice president and chief strategy officer by chief executive officer Satya Nadella. On June 17, 2015, it was announced he would be leaving Microsoft.[34]

The Stagwell Group

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After leaving Microsoft, Penn founded The Stagwell Group, a private equity firm that invests in marketing services agencies with a $250 million investment from former Microsoft chief executive officer Steve Ballmer.[35][36]

In May 2016, Penn told The Wall Street Journal that he wanted to create a "more digitally-focused advertising holding group, made up of companies which do not overlap in function," and offer a "fully-integrated solution across the continuum of marketing services."[37] In 2023, Penn stated that his "political background brings a much-needed perspective to marketing." He described his philosophy as that in today's real-time, data-focused world, brands must have a constant finger on the pulse of the American consumer.[12]

In October 2015, Stagwell Group struck a deal worth up to $75 million to buy SKDKnickerbocker.[38] In January 2017, the Stagwell Group acquired the Harris Poll from Nielsen Holdings and renamed it Harris Insights & Analytics.[39] The firm has also acquired National Research Group, digital creative firm Code and Theory, media agency ForwardPMX, and marketing communications companies SKDK and Targeted Victory, among others.[39][40]

Stagwell Inc.

[edit]

In August 2021, Penn merged the Stagwell Group with MDC Partners to form Stagwell Inc. Stagwell (Nasdaq: STGW) has offices in 35 countries and over 13,000 employees with its headquarters in New York City.[41] Stagwell companies include GALE, Code and Theory, Harris Poll, Anomaly, Doner, Assembly, 72 and Sunny, etc. In February 2022, Penn announced the formation of the Stagwell Marketing Cloud.[42] Penn, alongside Victor Ganzi, Josh Harris, James Tisch, and Thomas Peterffy, contributed to a $50 million investment fund in The Messenger, a news website that launched in May 2023.[43][44] Stagwell entered the Fortune 1000 during Penn's tenure.[45] As of summer 2023, Stagwell stock had more than tripled since Penn took the CEO role.[12]

President Bill Clinton (1994–2000)

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In 1994, President Bill Clinton hired Penn & Schoen to help his administration recover from the Democratic Party's dramatic losses during that year's midterm elections. The pollsters urged Clinton to move to the center, emphasizing stepped-up law enforcement, balancing the budget, and other issues.[46]

Penn served as pollster to Clinton for six years. During that time, he became one of Clinton's most prominent and influential advisers. In 2000, the Washington Post concluded in a news analysis that no pollster had ever become "so thoroughly integrated into the policymaking operation" of a presidential administration as had Penn.[47]

U.S. federal government shutdown of 1995

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Main article: United States federal government shutdowns of 1995 and 1995–96

Beginning in August 1995, at Clinton's request, Penn conducted numerous polls to understand what the political ramifications would be if the federal government were to shut down over disagreement between the legislative and executive branches over the budget.[21] Penn tested many different scenarios for Clinton, and in each case the research showed that the American public would back the President and blame Republicans if the government shut down. On November 14, 1995, with no budget signed, major portions of the federal government became inoperative. They were restored by the passage of a temporary spending bill a few days later, but on December 16, 1995, the federal government again shut down, this time for a period of 21 days. Ultimately, Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and the Republican-controlled Congress bore much of the political fallout for the shutdown, vindicating Penn's polling.[21]

1996 presidential campaign

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During Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign, Penn used the mall tests he developed for AT&T to test presidential campaign ads. He also created the "NeuroPersonality Poll," a survey that blended standard political and demographic questions with lifestyle, attitudinal, and psychographic questions, some adapted from Myers-Briggs. Penn's 1996 Neuro Poll helped him identify a new swing voter: the "soccer mom." Previously, pollsters had thought that the defining voter variables were things such as age and income. But Penn argued that marital status was also a key defining variable. He found that the gap was even wider among voters with children at home: parents were 10–15 points more likely to lean Republican. Based on this analysis, Penn urged Clinton to focus on policies that appealed to suburban parents and to speak about these policies in terms of values rather than economics.[46] He subsequently became famous for focusing on the "soccer mom", cited as the key swing vote that helped Clinton get reelected in 1996.[48]

Second term

[edit]

After the election, and for most of Clinton's second term, Penn and Schoen were hired to conduct 2–4 White House polls per month and met weekly with the President and the White House staff in the residence to review polls and policy ideas. These polls influenced Clinton's thinking and helped to refine his "new Democrat" language and policies that are one of his distinctive political contributions.[47]

Impeachment trial

[edit]

When allegations of Clinton's extramarital affair with Monica Lewinsky first surfaced in January 1998, Penn conducted polls to help the administration craft its response.[49] Penn subsequently led the research effort monitoring Clinton's level of public support throughout the impeachment proceedings against him and until Clinton was acquitted on February 13, 1999.

Hillary Clinton

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2000 and 2006 Senate campaigns

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In 2000, then-First Lady Hillary Clinton asked Penn to advise her on her run for the U.S. Senate from New York. During the campaign, tension brewed between Penn, who urged Clinton to focus on the issues, and other advisers, who urged Clinton to focus more on personality.[50] Clinton followed Penn's advice and won the election. Penn served again as Clinton's pollster in her successful 2006 Senate reelection campaign.

2008 presidential campaign

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Until April 6, 2008, he served as chief strategist to Hillary Clinton's campaign for president.[51] Penn and his colleagues held differences of opinion over how much to "humanize" Clinton, with Penn arguing that the vast majority of voters cared more about substance than style.[48] According to New York Times columnist Frank Rich, Penn and his wife, Nancy Jacobson, "helped brand the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign as a depository for special-interest contributions."[52] An NPR interview notes how much greater Mark Penn's business conflicts of interest were in comparison to other recent top campaign advisors like David Axelrod and Karl Rove.[53]

Penn laid out his "strategy for winning" in a March 19, 2007, memo to the campaign. According to the memo, Penn believed Clinton's victory would be built upon a coalition of voters he called "Invisible Americans", a sort of reprise of Bill Clinton's "forgotten middle class", which would be composed of women and lower and middle class voters. Eventually it was this coalition that she ended up winning a year later.[54] Penn wrote the "3 AM" advertisement that ran during the campaign, which was later named one of Time's top 10 political ads of all time and was parodied on The Simpsons.[12]

Penn advised Clinton not to apologize for voting for the Iraq War, insisting that "It's important for all Democrats to keep the word 'mistake' firmly on the Republicans."[55] Clinton followed this strategy. She would only apologize six years later in 2014.[56]

Clinton was the front-runner in the early months of the Democratic primary, but in January 2008 she lost the Iowa caucus to then-Senator Barack Obama.[57][58] On April 6, 2008, Penn agreed to step down as chief strategist when it was disclosed that he met with representatives of Colombia's government in his role as the CEO of Burson Marsteller, a firm hired to lobby on Colombia's behalf, creating a scandal for Clinton's campaign.[59][60] It was suggested that he would remain in a similar though less formal role until the end of the campaign.[61] As Secretary of State, Clinton ended up favoring the free-trade pact.[62][63]

In May 2008, Time's Karen Tumulty wrote that Penn thought the Democratic primaries were "winner-take-all", rather than allotted proportionally, citing anonymous sources who attended a Clinton strategy session with Penn in 2007. Senior Clinton staffer Harold Ickes is reported to have asked in frustration, "How can it possibly be that the much vaunted chief strategist doesn't understand proportional allocation?"[64] Penn and Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communication director, both denied that the scene had taken place.[65]

Clinton's campaign was hobbled by infighting among the staff, including much hostility towards Penn,[66] and disagreement in strategy such as between Penn's strategy of going negative against Obama and other staff who wanted to maintain a positive campaign.[54]

Tony Blair campaign for prime minister (2005)

[edit]

Penn advised British prime minister Tony Blair and conducted polling during his successful campaign for an unprecedented (for a Labour Party leader) third term in 2005. Bill Clinton had recommended Penn's services to Blair when they met at Ronald Reagan's funeral in 2004. Penn formulated the concept behind Blair's campaign slogan, "Forward Not Back", and refined it by conducting phone interviews with British swing voters through Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates.[19] Blair's Labour Party bested Michael Howard's Conservative Party by 3% in the general parliamentary elections.

Microtrends

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Penn's 2009 book, Microtrends, written with Kinney Zalesne and published by Hachette, argues that small groups of people can trigger big changes. Penn argues that a mere one percent of the American public (3 million people) can create a "microtrend" capable of launching a major business or even a new cultural movement, changing commercial, political and social landscapes.[67] From December 2008 to December 2009, Penn and Zalesne authored a regular online column for the Wall Street Journal called "Microtrends".[68]

The New York Times raised questions about conflicts of interest in Penn's Wall Street Journal column and the rest of his career.[69] New York Times reviewer Harry Hurt III described Microtrends as "a diligently researched tome chock-full of counterintuitive facts and findings" and "the perfect bible for a game of not-so-trivial pursuits concerning the hidden sociological truths of modern times...".[70] On the other hand, Ezra Klein, writing for In These Times, described the book as "epically awful" and remarked that "If [Penn] is the pinnacle of his profession, then the profession uses numbers as a ruse – a superficial empiricism that obscures garden-variety hackery."[71]

Rightward shift

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According to Politico, Penn has become disenchanted with the leftward shift in the Democratic Party. Philippe Reines suggested that Penn shouldered too much of the blame for Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential defeat. Bill Clinton described Penn's recent 2018-19 commentary as "sour grapes", suggesting "[Penn] wasn’t invited back into the [2016] campaign."[72]

Defense of Donald Trump

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Throughout 2018 and 2019, Penn was vocal with his criticisms of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election, regularly appearing on Fox News and contributing columns to The Hill in which he, in the words of Politico, "bashed" the probe and ensuing attempt to impeach then-President Donald Trump.[72] During this period, CNN and MSNBC declined to book Penn and his frequent appearances on Fox were criticized by some interviewed by Politico who said he was seeking revenge against Democrats for saddling him with Hillary Clinton's defeat in the 2008 U.S. presidential election.[72]

In an August 4, 2018, appearance on Fox News, Penn called Mueller's investigation into Russian collusion “a national waste of time".[73] Penn published several columns which criticized Mueller and political and legal adversaries of Trump.[74][75] In online opinion columns, he alleged that Mueller and "Democratic-leaning lawyers" were acting improperly in trying to prepare a charge of obstruction of justice against Trump.[76] The Daily Beast wrote that Penn had become one of Trump's biggest defenders in 2018.[74]

Penn has used the term "deep state" to refer to what he characterizes as Democratic operatives within the government who seek to undermine and sabotage Trump's first presidency.[75] He has alleged that Rod Rosenstein, who served as deputy attorney general in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2019, had conflicts of interest that should have precluded his involvement in investigations into Trump.[77]

Trump 2020 presidential campaign

[edit]

Penn met with Trump in February and November 2019 to discuss Trump's re-election campaign. After the latter meeting, Penn told The Washington Post, "It's the second time I have ever met with the President. I'm not counseling him. I'm not advising him." Penn also told the Post that his discussions with Trump concerned only data that was already publicly available.[78]

2024 election commentary

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In an April 2023 op-ed, Penn outlined a path to victory for a presidential candidate to win through appeals to an educated, suburban base[79] and expressed hope for Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, citing, among other things, a motivation to prevent Trump from becoming president again.[80]

Praise for X

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In 2025, Penn praised Twitter (officially known as X) as a "a revived and increasingly vibrant platform".[81]

Polling Americans on their perspectives around vaccines

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As of September 2025, the Department of Health and Human Services is preparing to issue a no-bid contract to the polling firm HarrisX, which is part of Stagwell, a marketing company led by Penn. The poll will seek to "understand Americans' perspectives around vaccines and drivers of trust in making vaccine decisions".[82]

Personal life

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Penn is married to Nancy Jacobson, the co-founder, board president and CEO of No Labels, a 501(c)4 political organization that advocates for centrism and bipartisanship.[83]

See also

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Notes

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[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia

Mark Penn

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from Grokipedia

Mark J. Penn (born January 15, 1954) is an American pollster, political , author, and executive renowned for pioneering data-driven approaches in and marketing.
Penn earned a from and attended before co-founding the polling firm Penn Schoen Berland in 1975, which introduced innovative overnight polling techniques and was sold to WPP in 2001. As pollster to President from 1994 to 2000, he played a pivotal role in the 1996 re-election campaign by identifying "soccer moms" as a crucial swing voter demographic. He later served as chief for Hillary Clinton's U.S. campaigns in 2000 and 2006, as well as her 2008 presidential bid, where he developed the iconic "3 AM" advertisement highlighting concerns.
In the corporate sphere, Penn assumed the CEO role at Burson-Marsteller in 2006, tripling the firm's profits during his tenure, and then joined as executive vice president and chief strategy officer from 2012 to 2015, overseeing a $2 billion advertising budget. Since 2015, he has led as president and managing partner, transforming it into a NASDAQ-listed challenger network with over $2.7 billion in annual revenue and more than 13,000 employees by emphasizing and consumer insights. Penn has advised over 25 international leaders, including and , and authored bestsellers such as Microtrends (2007) and Microtrends Squared, which analyze subtle societal shifts influencing , , and .

Early Life and Education

Upbringing and Formative Influences

Mark Penn was born in 1954 in to a Lithuanian immigrant father who operated a kosher poultry processing plant and a mother who, following the father's death in 1964, supported the family by working long hours as a supply . The family consisted of three boys, with Penn as one of the sons, and the early loss of the father instilled a strong emphasis on self-reliance and hard work, influenced by the immigrant ethos of perseverance amid economic challenges in the kosher . After his father's death at age 10, Penn's mother prioritized education by enrolling him in the , an elite private preparatory institution in known for its rigorous academics and progressive environment. There, at around age 13, Penn conducted his first informal poll surveying classmates on attitudes toward , marking an early fascination with data-driven insights into social attitudes that foreshadowed his career in polling. This experience, combined with exposure to peers like future collaborator , who shared an interest in Democratic politics, helped shape Penn's analytical approach to during his formative teenage years. These influences—familial resilience amid loss, maternal determination for upward mobility through , and hands-on experimentation with polling—laid the groundwork for Penn's later innovations in and strategic consulting, emphasizing empirical voter segmentation over broad ideological appeals.

Academic Training at Harvard

Mark Penn enrolled at in the early 1970s, pursuing a degree in . His studies emphasized empirical analysis of and electoral dynamics, laying foundational skills in data interpretation that later defined his career in polling. While at Harvard, Penn demonstrated early entrepreneurial initiative by co-founding a polling firm in 1972 with dormitory roommate Doug Schoen, conducting surveys on campus and local issues to refine methodological approaches. This hands-on experience supplemented his formal coursework, fostering a practical understanding of survey design and voter behavior analysis amid the politically charged atmosphere of the Watergate era. Penn graduated from Harvard in 1976 with a (AB) degree. Contemporaries noted his alignment with mid-1970s Harvard peers, including future executive , though Penn's focus remained on political analytics rather than technology.

Early Professional Career

Domestic Political Campaigns

Mark Penn entered professional political polling through his partnership with Schoen, co-founding Penn Schoen Associates shortly after graduating from Harvard in 1977. Their firm quickly gained traction in domestic campaigns by leveraging early technological innovations, such as using a kit to compile polling data overnight, which allowed for rapid tactical adjustments based on voter feedback. This approach marked a departure from slower traditional polling methods and provided a competitive edge in fast-paced urban races. A pivotal early client was New York City mayoral candidate . In 1976, while a first-year student at , Penn served as a pollster for Koch's successful Democratic primary and bid, helping to shape messaging that appealed to diverse voter blocs in a crowded field. The following year, during the 1977 Democratic primary runoff against , Penn and Schoen developed and executed the first known overnight poll using microcomputing technology, enabling Koch's campaign team to refine daily strategies and counter opponent narratives effectively. This real-time data analysis contributed to Koch's narrow primary victory over Cuomo by approximately 40,000 votes and his subsequent win, establishing Penn's reputation for data-driven precision in local Democratic contests. Through the late 1970s and 1980s, Penn Schoen Associates expanded its domestic portfolio, applying techniques to identify niche voter segments and test campaign appeals empirically. The firm's emphasis on granular polling—focusing on attitudes rather than broad demographics—anticipated modern , though it remained rooted in direct voter contact via phone surveys rather than digital tools. These efforts solidified Penn's role as an innovator in U.S. , prioritizing causal insights from data over anecdotal strategy.

International Political Consulting

Penn and Schoen's polling firm, founded in 1977, quickly expanded into international political consulting, providing data-driven strategies to candidates abroad. Early clients included Luis Herrera Campins, whose campaign they supported in the 1978 Venezuelan presidential election, which Campins won with 56.9% of the vote against opposition leader Salomón Correa. This marked one of the firm's initial forays outside the United States, applying microtargeting techniques adapted from domestic U.S. races to identify voter segments in a competitive multiparty field. The firm further assisted Menachem Begin's successful re-election bid as in 1981, where Begin's party secured 48 seats in the amid tensions from the Lebanon War buildup. Penn's approach emphasized granular public opinion analysis to refine messaging on security and economic issues, helping Begin maintain a despite domestic protests. By the mid-1990s, Penn's international work extended to , where he contributed polling and strategic advice to Tony Blair's Labour Party campaign, aiding Blair's landslide victory in the 1997 UK general election with 418 seats and a 179-seat majority. This involvement highlighted Penn's focus on ""—positioning candidates toward the center to broaden appeal—mirroring tactics used in Bill Clinton's U.S. campaigns, though Blair's team integrated it with New Labour's domestic reforms. These efforts established Penn's reputation for exporting U.S.-style data analytics to non-American contexts, often prioritizing empirical voter shifts over ideological purity.

Corporate Leadership

Burson-Marsteller and Polling Foundations

In 1975, while at , Penn co-founded the market research and polling firm Penn and Schoen with his roommate Doug Schoen, operating initially from the offices of . The firm specialized in integrating detailed polling data into political and corporate strategy, conducting surveys for early clients including New York City mayoral candidate and Venezuelan presidential candidate . Over the next two decades, under Penn's leadership, it expanded to more than 200 employees across global offices, emphasizing and data analytics to inform decision-making in campaigns and business. In 2001, WPP, the multinational communications conglomerate, acquired Penn Schoen Berland (as the firm had evolved with the addition of partner Bill Berland), integrating it into its portfolio while retaining Penn's operational influence. This polling expertise formed the foundation of Penn's corporate approach, blending empirical data with strategic consulting to advise multinational corporations on and market positioning. The firm's methodologies prioritized verifiable voter and consumer segmentation, avoiding reliance on anecdotal trends, and contributed to innovations like early adoption of dial-testing for real-time message refinement in political . In December 2005, Penn was appointed worldwide CEO of Burson-Marsteller, WPP's flagship agency, leveraging his polling background to enhance data-driven PR campaigns across 80 global markets. During his six-year tenure ending in July 2012, he tripled the firm's profits and oversaw combined operations of Burson-Marsteller and Penn Schoen Berland, achieving nearly $100 million in EBITDA through synergies between polling insights and crisis communications. Under Penn, the agency earned the Holmes Report's North American Agency of the Year award, attributed to its emphasis on evidence-based reputation strategies for clients like , a long-term partner that later recruited Penn. Penn's leadership emphasized causal analysis of public sentiment, integrating proprietary polling to preempt reputational risks rather than reactive measures.

Microsoft Executive Strategy

Mark Penn joined Microsoft on July 19, 2012, as Corporate for Strategic and Special Projects, reporting directly to CEO . In this capacity, he headed a small tasked with advancing consumer-focused initiatives, applying his prior experience in , advertising, and polling to inform strategic development. Penn's role expanded to Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, overseeing core strategic matters company-wide amid intensifying competition, particularly from in search and advertising markets. He utilized data analytics and polling methodologies to shape responses to regulatory challenges, including antitrust concerns, echoing tactics from his background to bolster Microsoft's positioning. Under his leadership, pursued initiatives blending technology with , such as donating advanced Surface devices and sensors to the U.S. Diplomacy Center in February 2015 to enhance interactive exhibits on global relations. Penn advocated for integrating consumer insights into broader corporate strategy, though specific outcomes tied to his tenure remain attributed more to overarching shifts under Ballmer and successor than isolated projects. Penn exited in June 2015 without a direct replacement, transitioning to launch Group, a $250 million fund targeting investments, including backing from Ballmer. His three-year stint emphasized leveraging polling-derived for corporate competition, though critics noted limited transformative impact on Microsoft's core businesses like cloud and .

Founding and Expansion of Stagwell

In June , Mark Penn founded The Group LLC as a and investment advisory firm focused on acquiring and modernizing agencies, drawing on his experience in , polling, and corporate . The firm initially operated with $250 million in investment capital, targeting disruptions in the traditional model by emphasizing data-driven, agile networks over legacy structures. Stagwell expanded aggressively under Penn's chairmanship and CEO role through targeted acquisitions of specialized agencies in digital, creative, , and performance marketing, building a portfolio that integrated technology and capabilities. By 2022, the company had scaled from zero to $2.7 billion in annual revenue within seven years, outpacing growth rates of established competitors like WPP and Omnicom. A pivotal step occurred on December 21, 2020, when announced a definitive agreement to combine with MDC Partners Inc., a network, culminating in the merger's completion on August 2, 2021, to form Inc. This transaction enabled Inc. to list on under the ticker STGW starting August 3, 2021, providing public market access and accelerating scale. Post-merger, established a presence in 35 countries with more than 13,000 employees, emphasizing owned media platforms, AI integration, and international footholds in regions like and . Subsequent growth involved over a dozen acquisitions annually in recent years, including digital leaders in and analytics firms, alongside investments in content platforms like , sustaining double-digit organic revenue increases in key quarters and positioning as a nimble alternative in the $800 billion services industry.

Polling Philosophy and Methods

Innovations in Microtargeting

Mark Penn contributed to the evolution of by emphasizing polling-driven segmentation to identify narrow voter cohorts and craft issue-specific appeals, moving beyond broad demographic categories toward behavioral and attitudinal clusters. During Bill Clinton's 1996 re-election campaign, Penn pinpointed "soccer moms"—suburban, middle-class women prioritizing family safety, education, and crime—as a decisive swing constituency comprising about 5-7% of voters, whose support was secured through targeted messaging on and school uniforms rather than universal themes. This approach yielded measurable gains, with exit polls showing Clinton improving among suburban women by 8 points compared to 1992. A key technical innovation was Penn's development of the overnight polling methodology in the mid-1990s, which compressed survey-to-analysis cycles to under 24 hours using automated dialing and rapid , enabling campaigns to test ad variations, slogans, and policy emphases daily and adjust tactics based on subgroup responses. Implemented first for Clinton's team around 1995, this system processed thousands of responses nightly, allowing real-time pivots—for instance, amplifying "tough on " rhetoric when polls detected shifts among security-conscious independents. Unlike traditional polling's weekly lags, this agility prefigured modern data loops, though it relied on samples predating widespread mobile use. Penn extended these techniques to Hillary Clinton's presidential bid, where his firm segmented voters into over 80 lifestyle-based clusters—drawing from consumer data like magazine subscriptions and purchase habits—to deliver personalized direct mail and ads, such as emphasizing economic anxiety for "upscale skeptics" or for "family-focused" groups. While effective in primaries, capturing small persuadable slices (e.g., 1-2% shifts in seniors), critics noted over-reliance on fragmented broader coalitions. His framework, later formalized in Microtrends (), posited that 10-30 person "micro" groups could sway elections by amplifying latent trends via precise targeting, influencing subsequent Democratic strategies despite partisan adoption of similar tools by Republicans via voter files post-2004.

Data-Driven Approach to Public Opinion

Mark Penn's approach to polling emphasizes rapid, technology-enabled and analysis to capture nuanced shifts in voter sentiment, beginning with his of the overnight poll in 1977. By constructing an early computer system to process survey results overnight, Penn enabled campaigns to obtain fresh insights into public reactions within 24 hours, a significant acceleration over manual tabulation methods that previously took days. This innovation allowed for iterative testing of messages and tactics based on empirical evidence rather than prolonged speculation. Central to Penn's is the segmentation of into microtargeted subgroups, using demographic, behavioral, and attitudinal data to identify influential niches comprising as little as 1-2% of the population. In his 2007 book Microtrends, Penn argues that broad aggregate polls often obscure these small but pivotal forces driving larger societal changes, advocating instead for granular to reveal hidden opinion dynamics. This data-driven focus on subgroups informed early in political advertising, where polling data directs tailored communications to specific voter clusters rather than mass appeals. During Bill Clinton's presidency, Penn applied this philosophy by supplying daily polling data that prioritized public priorities, such as fiscal responsibility, influencing policy triangulation toward centrist positions supported by majority sentiment. For instance, polls showing 88% voter approval for a as a top priority shaped Clinton's emphasis on deficit reduction. Penn integrated quantitative survey results with qualitative tools like dial-group testing, where participants gauge real-time responses to speeches or ads, ensuring strategies aligned with verifiable public reactions over ideological assumptions. This empirical rigor extended beyond elections, positioning polling as a tool for ongoing attuned to evolving opinion data.

Advisory Role in Bill Clinton's Presidency

Appointment as White House Pollster

In late 1994, following the Republican Party's substantial gains in the midterm elections—capturing majorities in both the (gaining 54 seats) and the (gaining 8 seats)—President turned to polling data to recalibrate his administration's strategy amid declining approval ratings. Mark Penn, head of the Democratic polling firm Penn & Schoen Associates, began conducting targeted surveys that highlighted public support for centrist initiatives, such as tougher crime policies, , and fiscal responsibility measures to balance the federal budget. These insights prompted Clinton to adopt a "New Democrat" approach, distancing from more liberal positions to appeal to moderate voters. Penn's role evolved from campaign consultant to de facto White House pollster without a formal public appointment, as he provided weekly briefings to senior aides and Cabinet members in sessions held in the of the residence. His analyses became integral to decision-making, influencing policy pivots that contributed to Clinton's political recovery by 1995, including veto overrides and negotiations during the 1995–1996 budget disputes. Penn's tenure in this capacity lasted six years, extending through the 1996 re-election campaign and into the second term until approximately 2000, during which he conducted over 800 polls for the administration. This arrangement reflected a broader trend in the Clinton White House, where polling assumed a cabinet-level influence, supplanting traditional advisors in shaping responses to shifts. Penn's data-driven counsel emphasized swing demographics, such as suburban women later dubbed "soccer moms," though his methods drew internal criticism for prioritizing short-term popularity over long-term ideological consistency.

Strategies for 1996 Re-Election

Mark Penn, serving as a principal pollster alongside Doug Schoen, played a central role in reshaping Bill Clinton's re-election strategy after the Democratic losses in the congressional midterms. Their polling, initiated shortly after the Republican sweep, emphasized a pivot to fiscal responsibility and centrist policies to recapture independents and moderate voters, including 19% of 1992 supporters who prioritized s. This approach involved daily tracking polls and focus groups that revealed broad public support—over 80%—for deficit reduction, prompting Clinton's June 13, 1995, announcement committing to a without deep cuts to Medicare, , , or environmental programs. A key innovation was the identification of "soccer moms"—college-educated suburban women juggling family responsibilities—as a decisive swing group, particularly in battleground states, who favored pragmatic policies on education, crime, and family values over ideological extremes. Penn's data-driven targeting led to messaging that highlighted Clinton's support for school uniforms, curfews, and technology for parental controls, while crediting the administration for falling crime rates under the 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act. On welfare, polling indicated 60% of voters viewed reform as "very important," influencing Clinton's signing of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act on August 22, 1996, which imposed work requirements and time limits, positioning the president as tougher than Republican nominee on the issue. The strategy extended to economic messaging, with Penn urging to claim credit for the era's prosperity, including dropping to 5.4% by October 1996 and sustained deficit reduction, framing these as results of disciplined rather than partisan spending. This "" effort, informed by Penn's dials testing in focus groups, neutralized Republican advantages on , , and the by portraying Clinton as the mainstream alternative—stronger on NAFTA expansion, controlled , and budget discipline—while invoking values like family, community, and opportunity in ads and speeches, such as the January 23, 1996, declaration that "the era of big government is over." Polls showed this values-based framing outperforming Republican alternatives by a 3:1 margin among key demographics. During the 1995 budget disputes with the Republican-controlled , Mark Penn, serving as pollster, conducted a series of polls at President Clinton's request beginning in August 1995 to gauge public reaction to a potential federal over spending cuts and debt limit issues. These polls revealed that the public predominantly blamed Republicans, led by Speaker , for any shutdown, with data indicating stronger disapproval of GOP intransigence compared to Democratic positions. This insight guided Clinton's decision to veto spending bills and hold firm, framing the impasse as Republican extremism on issues like Medicare and education funding, which shifted momentum and bolstered his image as a defender of core programs ahead of the 1996 election. The strategy proved effective, as the prolonged shutdowns—from November 14 to 19, 1995, and December 16, 1995, to January 6, 1996—eroded Republican approval ratings while Clinton's held steady or improved in key demographics. As the scandal broke in January 1998, Penn conducted polling to inform the administration's initial response to allegations of and related obstruction claims, emphasizing on public tolerance for personal failings versus policy performance. Throughout the ensuing independent counsel investigation and proceedings—initiated by the House on December 19, 1998—Penn led ongoing research tracking , which consistently showed majority disapproval of Clinton's conduct but opposition to his removal from office, with approval ratings stabilizing around 60% by late 1998. This polling supported a strategy of minimal engagement on the scandal, focusing instead on economic achievements and legislative priorities to maintain voter support, culminating in Clinton's on February 12, 1999, by votes of 45-55 on and 50-50 on obstruction. Penn's underscored that voters prioritized governance over moral judgments, a pattern that limited partisan damage despite the .

Engagement with Hillary Clinton Campaigns

Senate Elections Support

Mark Penn served as chief pollster and one of the most influential advisers to during her 2000 U.S. Senate campaign in New York, designing polls that filtered voter sentiment directly to the candidate. His approach emphasized tightly targeted questions on hyper-local issues, such as support for the Port Chester Downtown Redevelopment project and improvements to the Westchester County , adapting corporate techniques to political polling. These polls revealed that voter approval for Clinton increased when she endorsed specific local initiatives, like property tax reductions in Nassau County, helping to counter perceptions of her as an outsider despite her status and ongoing scrutiny. Penn's strategic recommendations, derived from this data, focused on crafting messaging around tangible local benefits and testing attack lines, such as portraying opponent as "too close to Rev. ." This contributed to Clinton's victory on November 7, 2000, where she secured 55% of the vote against Lazio's 43%, marking her entry into elected office. While some campaign aides resisted Penn's dominant influence, his data-driven focus on small-scale voter attitudes proved effective in navigating New York's diverse electorate. For Clinton's 2006 Senate re-election, Penn continued as chief strategist and pollster, providing ongoing data analysis amid her uncontested primary and strong polling against Republican John Spencer. His internal memos during this period, including an October 2006 assessment, outlined principles positioning as a "power candidate" while evaluating early presidential prospects, reflecting his integrated advisory role across her tenure. Polling under Penn's guidance showed maintaining a commanding lead, contributing to her landslide win on November 7, 2006, with 67% of the vote to Spencer's 31%, despite the campaign's record-high spending of over $41 million. This support underscored Penn's consistent emphasis on empirical voter data to sustain incumbency advantages in a safely Democratic state.

2008 Presidential Bid and Internal Conflicts

Mark Penn served as chief strategist and pollster for Hillary Clinton's Democratic presidential campaign, a position he assumed in January based on his prior success advising Bill Clinton's 1996 reelection. Drawing on polling data from his firm Penn Schoen Berland, which received over $6 million from the campaign by February , Penn crafted strategies targeting a he termed "Invisible Americans"—primarily women, blue-collar workers, and lower- to middle-income voters. In a March 19, , strategy memo, he emphasized Clinton's image as a strong leader capable of delivering change, while dismissing as "unelectable" owing to his perceived "lack of American roots" and inexperience. Penn's approach favored a top-down model reliant on Clinton's perceived inevitability, large donors, and aggressive messaging to appeal to working-class demographics, including the "3 a.m." advertisement launched on February 28, , which highlighted her readiness for crises and resonated with white male voters in states like and . A , 2008, memo outlined a "path to victory" through large industrial states such as , , and , advocating intensified attacks on Obama's ties to Rev. to exploit vulnerabilities among these voters. However, this focus on negativity and ceding early smaller contests to Obama allowed the latter to build a delegate lead, contributing to Clinton's third-place Iowa finish on January 3, . Internal conflicts intensified as Penn's data-driven insistence on attack politics clashed with aides like Harold Ickes and former Patti Solis Doyle, who pushed for a more positive, inspirational tone aligned with Obama's "change" narrative. Tensions manifested in shouting matches, profanity-laced disputes, and leaks post-Iowa suggesting Penn's ouster, with critics faulting his dual roles as CEO of Burson-Marsteller and Penn Schoen Berland for divided loyalties and high costs, including million-dollar monthly payments. These frictions reflected broader campaign disarray, where Penn's emphasis on experience over was blamed for failing to counter Obama's appeal to younger and college-educated voters. The occurred on April 6, 2008, when Penn resigned as chief strategist following a Wall Street Journal report on his March 31, 2008, meeting with Colombian ambassador Luis Alberto Moreno to promote a U.S.- —directly contradicting Clinton's opposition to the deal. This ethical lapse, tied to his firm's work, amplified prior grievances and led to his replacement by pollster Geoff Garin and communications director Howard Wolfson, though Penn retained an informal advisory role. The episode underscored systemic strains in the campaign's structure, where personal animosities and strategic rigidities undermined cohesion amid mounting primary losses.

Consulting for Tony Blair

Tactical Advice for 2005 Election

In late 2004, Mark Penn was secretly recruited by to advise the Labour Party's campaign for the May 5, 2005, , conducting monthly confidential meetings with a select group of Blair's aides to sharpen strategic positioning. His involvement, kept hidden from most Cabinet members, leveraged Penn's polling expertise from U.S. campaigns to reposition Labour as a moderate-progressive force contesting centrist ground against the Conservatives. Penn's tactical recommendations emphasized shifting Labour rightward on key issues, including aggressive messaging on crime reduction, economic stewardship, , and market-based reforms for schools and the (NHS). He urged an "unremittingly New Labor" manifesto focused on delivering stability for "hardworking families," underscoring Blair's economic record amid public fatigue from the and domestic reforms. This approach aimed to neutralize Conservative attacks by framing Labour as reliable on defense, law and order, and fiscal prudence, drawing from data showing voter priorities in swing constituencies. Collaborating with Blair's longtime pollster Gould, Penn's firm, Penn Schoen Berland, supplied data-driven polling that informed targeted voter outreach, contributing to Labour's retention of power despite a reduced majority of 66 seats (from 167 in 2001). The firm's services, valued at £530,372, reflected the premium placed on Penn's techniques adapted from American elections, which prioritized mobilizing soft supporters over broad ideological appeals. Critics within Labour's left wing decried the centrist pivot as a of progressive roots, but it aligned with empirical polling indicating electoral viability through pragmatic, issue-focused messaging.

Key Publications

Microtrends: Identifying Small-Scale Shifts

Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes, published on September 5, 2007, by Twelve Books, is a work co-authored by pollster Mark Penn and E. Kinney Zalesne. The book posits that societal transformations arise not primarily from broad macroeconomic or demographic shifts, but from "microtrends"—discrete, often overlooked patterns involving small segments of the , typically 1% or about 3 million , that coalesce to influence larger outcomes. Penn draws on proprietary polling data accumulated over decades to identify 75 such microtrends across 15 categories, including , , , money, education, and family dynamics. Central to the thesis is the idea that these microtrends reflect a human inclination toward individuality and niche identities, challenging assumptions of societal conformity. Penn argues that groups as small as 1% can reshape markets, elections, or cultural norms when their preferences align and gain momentum, exemplified by his earlier identification of "soccer moms" as a pivotal demographic in 's 1996 re-election. The analysis emphasizes unmet needs within growing identity clusters, urging businesses, policymakers, and observers to monitor granular data rather than aggregate indicators for predictive accuracy. Illustrative microtrends include "cougars"— pursuing younger male partners—and "New Luddites," individuals rejecting advanced in favor of simpler living. Other examples encompass retirees who continue working, teenagers reviving as a , socially ascending "geeks," women pioneering in sectors, "car-buying soccer moms" influencing automotive markets, "multicultural " among diverse midlife women, and "urban outlaws" flouting conventional city norms. These vignettes, supported by statistical from surveys, demonstrate how fragmented behaviors aggregate into macroeconomic pressures or electoral swings. Reception highlighted the book's data-driven insights and counterintuitive observations, with describing it as "unrelentingly fascinating" and "chock-full of counterintuitive facts." praised its "nano-sociology" value for cultural analysts and entrepreneurs, while noted strengths in exploring implications for opportunity. Critics, however, pointed to brevity in treatments and a lack of groundbreaking novelty, suggesting oversimplification of intricate social dynamics despite sound generalizations. The work's polling foundation lent empirical credibility, aligning with Penn's professional emphasis on dissecting voter and consumer subsets over sweeping narratives. Microtrends Squared: The New Small Forces Driving Today's Big Disruptions, co-authored by Mark Penn and Meredith Fineman, was published by on March 20, 2018. The book serves as a to Penn's 2007 Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes, expanding on the core thesis that societal transformations arise not from sweeping macroeconomic or demographic forces, but from incremental shifts among niche population segments comprising as little as 1% of the populace. Drawing from Penn's extensive polling data and experience, it identifies 50 such microtrends influencing business, politics, and culture, emphasizing their convergence and clashes in an era of heightened complexity. The volume updates the original framework to account for technological accelerations, effects, and post-2008 economic disruptions, arguing that these microtrends—often counterintuitive and overlooked—propel major innovations and policy pivots. Organized into six thematic sections—Love and Relationships, and Diet, , , , and Work and —the analysis dissects how specialized groups, such as niche health enthusiasts or tech-savvy demographics, amplify their impact through digital amplification and targeted behaviors. Penn posits that recognizing these patterns enables proactive by leaders and entrepreneurs, citing empirical examples from showing outsized influence on markets and elections. In the politics section, Penn highlights microtrends like fragmented voter coalitions and rising , informed by his polling insights, which foreshadowed volatility in democratic processes observed in the 2016 U.S. election cycle. trends address the democratization of tools enabling small groups to scale influence, such as social media micro-activism, while lifestyle shifts explore evolving structures and pursuits driving consumer pivots. The book cautions against overreliance on macro-narratives, advocating data granularity to navigate disruptions, with practical implications for policy and commerce grounded in verifiable trend growth rates. Overall, Microtrends Squared reinforces Penn's of isolating growing, unmet needs within subgroups as predictors of broader change.

Later Political Commentary and Analysis

Critiques of Post-2016 Investigations

Mark Penn, a former strategist for Hillary Clinton's campaigns, emerged as a vocal of the FBI's Crossfire Hurricane investigation and the subsequent Mueller probe into alleged Trump- collusion, arguing that they exemplified overreach and lacked substantive evidence from the outset. In May 2018, Penn described the Russia collusion accusation as unprecedentedly "fuzzy," lacking the specificity of prior inquiries like those involving , and contended that the probe stemmed from post-election "hysteria" rather than credible predicate facts. He drew parallels to his past opposition to Ken Starr's investigation during the era, maintaining that expansive mandates risked politicized fishing expeditions without clear crimes defined upfront. Penn specifically lambasted the probe's heavy reliance on the , which he deemed "clearly preposterous" and "junk" obvious from day one, unfit as a basis for FISA warrants or launching a full investigation. In June 2019, he called for the extradition of dossier author to the U.S., questioning the funding sources behind the unverified allegations and their role in compromising FBI integrity. Penn argued that the dossier's flaws, later corroborated by Michael Horowitz's 2019 report finding 17 significant inaccuracies in FISA applications, invalidated the probe's origins and highlighted institutional failures in vetting intelligence. By late 2018, as Mueller's team pursued charges, Penn asserted the investigation had yielded "truly empty" results on its core collusion charge against Trump, instead pivoting to "bludgeoning witnesses on unrelated charges" to fabricate a narrative delegitimizing the president rather than uncovering election crimes. He labeled the probe a "national waste of time," costing over $30 million over two years while compromising the FBI and DOJ through thousands of unsubstantiated media stories that fixated public attention on a baseless . Penn's skepticism was bolstered by John Durham's May 2023 report, which he described as a "stunning affirmation" of corruption in the FBI's handling of the probe, criticizing the bureau for launching a full investigation on "raw, unanalyzed and uncorroborated " without analytical rigor. Durham's findings echoed Penn's earlier points by documenting FBI missteps, including failure to key witnesses and overreliance on flawed tips, while skewering media narratives that amplified false claims despite lacking evidence—claims Penn said convinced up to 40% of voters of Trump's disloyalty. In Penn's view, these investigations not only failed empirically but eroded in institutions, with mainstream outlets prioritizing narrative over verification.

Data-Based Defense of Trump Policies

Mark Penn has contended that empirical polling data reveals substantial public backing for core Trump administration policies, particularly when contrasted with declining Democratic approval ratings, which he attributes to a disconnect from voter priorities. In a March 2025 analysis, Penn noted that Trump maintained favorable scores on policy execution while Democrats registered their lowest-ever approval at 36% in his polling history, underscoring voter for Trump's approach on economic strength and border security over progressive alternatives. On , Harvard CAPS/Harris surveys under Penn's co-direction have consistently demonstrated Trump's policies as a standout area of approval, with June 2025 results indicating his strongest performance on this issue and 56% voter support for mobilization to avert urban unrest. Similarly, May 2025 data positioned reforms as Trump's most acclaimed achievement, reflecting sustained public endorsement amid ongoing border challenges. Economic policies, including , have elicited mixed but resilient support in Penn's view, with April 2025 polling showing voters open to Trump's tariff gambles despite 53% opposition when exposed to counterarguments, as 54% favored continuation after pro- framing. Penn argued this willingness stems from perceived benefits in reshoring and addressing imbalances, even as August 2025 figures revealed 54% believing Trump outperforms prior on overall , stabilizing at 47% approval amid economic rebound signals like 51% viewing the as robust in May. Regarding crime reduction, Penn highlighted August 2025 poll traction for Trump's initiatives, including D.C. interventions, where 54% deemed actions justified, signaling voter validation of assertive measures over lenient alternatives. He has framed these data points as evidence that Trump's pragmatic, results-oriented policies align with majority sentiments on and , often polling 10-20 points above partisan Democratic counterparts.

Insights from Harvard CAPS/Harris Polls

Mark Penn, as co-director of the Harvard CAPS/, regularly analyzes monthly survey data to highlight voter sentiments that often diverge from narratives, emphasizing empirical trends in approval ratings, policy preferences, and partisan dynamics. In his debriefs, Penn underscores the polls' , which involves online surveys of approximately 2,000-2,500 registered voters, as a reliable gauge of underlying less influenced by elite discourse. He frequently notes how these findings reveal stronger support for conservative-leaning positions on issues like compared to other polling averages. Penn has highlighted Donald Trump's consistent strengths in areas such as , where June 2025 data showed Trump's approval at its highest, with 56% of voters supporting deployment of the to prevent riots, reflecting broad concern over border security and public order. In August 2025 analysis, he pointed to Trump's approval stabilizing at 47%, with 54% of voters viewing him as outperforming —a 3-point increase from July—particularly on , where Penn argued in interviews that Trump's ratings could improve further if policy actions matched voter demands for tougher enforcement. February 2025 results, per Penn's commentary, indicated 58% of voters more satisfied with Trump's presidential performance than Biden's, driven by approvals on reducing government costs and restoring manufacturing jobs. On fiscal and governance issues, Penn's insights from the September 2025 poll revealed 70% opposition to government shutdowns and 65% favoring Democratic concessions, which he interpreted as voters rejecting partisan in favor of pragmatic resolutions amid economic pressures. He quoted in the release that voters perceive current political as disconnected from real-world needs, prioritizing outcomes over . In July 2025, Penn dissected mixed support for proposed tax and spending bills, noting majority backing for specific cuts like those on tips and overtime despite overall 47% approval for broader packages, advising policymakers to focus on popular micro-policies.
Poll MonthKey Insight from Penn's AnalysisTrump ApprovalNotable Voter Sentiment
January 2025Biden exits at 39% low; Trump enters strong on transition prioritiesN/A (incoming)High expectations for economic relief
February 202558% prefer Trump over Biden on job performance52%Strong on , government efficiency
June 2025Peak approval on ; support for Guard against unrestHighest on 56% back measures
July 2025Split on bills but majorities for tax cuts47%Favor targeted reforms over omnibus
August 2025Trump edges Biden in retrospective; crime traction potential47%54% see Trump as better performer
September 2025Oppose shutdowns; demand concessionsStable70% against disruption, rhetoric fatigue
Through his debriefs with Bob Cusack, Penn consistently frames these data points as evidence of a electorate rewarding results-oriented , critiquing overreliance on narrative-driven polling elsewhere. This approach positions the Harvard CAPS/Harris series as a to perceived biases in institutional surveys.

Perspectives on 2020 and 2024 Elections

Mark Penn assessed the 2020 presidential election as closer than many mainstream polls indicated, emphasizing the unorthodox conditions including the , social unrest, and economic disruptions that shaped voter priorities. Through the , which he co-directed, Penn's surveys consistently showed competitive in battleground states, with data from late October 2020 highlighting Trump's potential path to by focusing on economic recovery and law-and-order issues. Post-election from the same poll, fielded immediately after , 2020, positioned it as one of the most accurate forecasters, better capturing Trump's support among non-college-educated and working-class voters compared to aggregates that underestimated Republican turnout. Penn attributed polling discrepancies to methodological biases in other surveys, such as over-sampling urban Democrats, which contributed to narratives of a Biden that did not materialize in key swing states like and . Regarding Democratic strategy, Penn criticized the party's shift toward and progressive policies, arguing they alienated moderate voters who prioritized practical concerns over cultural issues during the crisis. He noted that Joe Biden's campaign succeeded by presenting as a centrist unifier, but warned that internal party pressures from the left risked eroding that appeal, as evidenced by voter data showing dissatisfaction with handling of riots and lockdowns. In retrospect, Penn viewed the election outcome as a rejection of extreme partisanship, with Trump's resilience despite media and institutional opposition underscoring the limits of narrative-driven polling. For the 2024 election, Penn's Harvard CAPS/Harris Polls repeatedly indicated Trump's leads on core issues like , , with surveys from early 2024 onward showing him ahead among independents and even subsets of Democrats on economic competence. He argued the race remained fluid into September 2024, with significant undecided independents—potentially 10-15%—swayed by tangible voter concerns rather than candidate personalities, contrasting with media portrayals of as inevitable. Penn highlighted shifts in voter behavior, such as increased Republican support among Latinos (up 10-15 points from 2020 in key states) driven by economic hardship and border security, which his polls tracked as pivotal to Trump's margin. In a post-election op-ed, Penn outlined eight key lessons for Democrats, including recognizing America as a center-right wary of overregulation, the backlash against demonizing opponents via legal actions and media amplification (which he said unified Trump's base), and the ineffectiveness of celebrity endorsements from Hollywood figures. He faulted Harris's campaign for adhering to progressive orthodoxy—such as expansive government spending and reluctance on —ignoring working-class priorities, while praising Trump's focus on results over rhetoric. Penn also critiqued Democratic tactics like emphasizing post-Roe v. Wade as insufficient to offset economic discontent, urging the party to recalibrate toward Clinton-era to regain lost ground among non-college voters. His analysis underscored polling's role in revealing these dynamics, with Harvard CAPS/Harris data post-November 5, , showing Trump's approval at 54% amid hopes for reduction and .

Advocacy for Free Speech Platforms like X

Mark Penn has expressed strong support for Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter (rebranded as X) in 2022, viewing it as an opportunity to restore free speech principles that he believed were undermined by prior management. In April 2022, following Musk's announced purchase, Penn co-authored a poll analysis noting that had developed a "poor image" and strayed "out of the mainstream of America and those who believe in free speech," with over half of voters approving the change in ownership. He argued that the platform's previous practices had alienated users seeking open discourse. In December 2022, Penn urged patience with 's reforms, describing pre-acquisition as a "sewer" of biased moderation and predicting that would act as a "" to unclog it, emphasizing the need to prioritize free expression over advertiser-driven . He defended 's vision against early criticisms, contending that restoring unfiltered debate would benefit public discourse more than enforced neutrality under the old regime. Penn continued advocating for X's free speech model in subsequent years, particularly amid advertiser boycotts. In June 2025, as CEO of , he publicly backed the platform against pressure tactics from brands and groups like the Global Alliance for Responsible Media, stating that such efforts represented an overreach that stifled competition and expression. He highlighted X's resilience under , including the shift from traditional fact-checking—which he saw as prone to subjective bias—to , calling the latter's expansion a "major win for free speech" in January 2025. As a self-described free speech proponent, Penn has tied X's model to broader concerns about institutional censorship, drawing from his polling data showing public distrust in legacy media's gatekeeping. In defending Stagwell's engagements with Musk, such as meetings at Cannes Lions in 2024, he affirmed the agency's commitment to platforms enabling diverse viewpoints, regardless of political backlash. Penn's stance contrasts with critiques from left-leaning sources that portray Musk's approach as chaotic, but he maintains that empirical evidence from user engagement and poll trends validates the emphasis on minimal intervention over algorithmic suppression.

Personal Life

Family and Relationships

Mark Penn has been married to , a political fundraiser and founder of the centrist group , since approximately 1999. The couple, known for their complementary yet contrasting professional styles—Penn as a data-driven pollster and Jacobson as a relationship-focused organizer—have named their powerboat Yin & Yang to reflect this dynamic. Penn and Jacobson have one daughter together, Blair, born in 2001. Penn also has three children from a previous marriage, including daughter Jacqueline Hannah Penn, who earned a medical degree and married Alexander Jared Deutsch on February 16, 2020, at the Rainbow Room in New York.

Residence and Lifestyle

Mark Penn resides in Georgetown, Washington, D.C., with his wife, Nancy Jacobson, in a home they purchased in September 2003 from former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his wife. The property, valued at approximately $5 million as of 2008, has hosted political events, including a 2011 fundraiser described as taking place in a "stunning home." Penn and Jacobson lead an affluent lifestyle reflective of their careers in polling, consulting, and political fundraising. The couple owns a powerboat named Yin & Yang, symbolizing their dynamic professional partnership, with Penn focused on data-driven strategy and Jacobson on fundraising and advocacy through organizations like No Labels. Their shared involvement in Democratic circles and business ventures underscores a lifestyle blending high-stakes professional engagements with personal leisure pursuits.

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  34. https://www.thedrum.com/news/2024/11/05/ex-clinton-advisor-holdco-ceo-mark-penn-decodes-campaign-ad-tactics-ahead-us
  35. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/2008/04/23/in-every-voter-a-microtarget/ec9fe36a-def5-4490-b89f-225be6b14750/
  36. https://www.newrepublic.com/article/112421/microsofts-scroogle-ads-and-mark-penn
  37. https://uk.themedialeader.com/stagwell-ceo-mark-penn-how-a-former-clinton-pollster-built-a-2bn-challenger-to-the-big-four/
  38. https://www.vox.com/2018/5/18/17366344/transcript-microtrends-author-politics-mark-penn-recode-decode
  39. https://prospect.org/2001/12/19/controversy-clinton-win/
  40. https://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/18/magazine/the-guru-of-small-things.html
  41. http://markpenn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Policy-and-Politics-by-the-Numbers_-For-the-President-Polls-Became-a-De....pdf
  42. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2000/12/31/policy-and-politics-by-the-numbers/7f4d17f7-b3c6-4ed4-ae8a-832f604f10e6/
  43. https://time.com/archive/6729627/why-our-game-plan-worked/
  44. https://prospect.org/power/controversy-clinton-win/
  45. https://www.nytimes.com/1998/02/11/nyregion/public-lives-taking-pulse-of-the-president-s-pulse-takers.html
  46. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/09/the-hillary-clinton-memos/306951/
  47. https://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/21/us/politics/21donate.html
  48. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/09/the-front-runner-s-fall/306944/
  49. https://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/07/clinton.campaign/index.html
  50. https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/us/politics/07hillary.html
  51. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/07/hillaryclinton
  52. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2005/jan/23/20050123-102809-7445r/
  53. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/12/gordonbrown.labour
  54. https://www.amazon.com/Microtrends-Forces-Behind-Tomorrows-Changes/dp/0446580961
  55. https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/mark-j-penn/microtrends/
  56. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1556580.Microtrends
  57. https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/mark-penn/microtrends/9780446402064/
  58. https://www.amazon.com/Microtrends-Squared-Forces-Driving-Disruptions/dp/1501179918
  59. https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Microtrends-Squared/Mark-Penn/9781501179938
  60. https://www.getabstract.com/en/summary/microtrends-squared/32756
  61. https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/technology-and-learning/two-ways-read-microtrends-squared
  62. https://www.ice.com/insights/conversations/inside-the-ice-house/microtrends-squared-a-conversation-with-mark-penn
  63. https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/05/russia-investigation-clinton-pollster-mark-penn-opposes/
  64. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/388923-penn-to-hewitt-mueller-probe-born-out-of-hysteria/
  65. https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-democrat-dissents-on-the-mueller-probe-1528497640
  66. https://nypost.com/2019/03/25/fast-takes-special-a-roundup-of-commentary-on-the-mueller-findings/
  67. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mark-penn-christopher-steele-should-be-extradited
  68. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/mark-penn-the-mueller-investigation-has-come-up-empty-on-russia-you-wont-believe-whats-coming-next
  69. https://www.facebook.com/FoxNewsVideo/videos/mark-penn-mueller-probe-is-national-waste-of-time/2044455672231399/
  70. https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/former-fbi-agent-sounds-off-on-drastic-shift-in-bureau-people-are-terrified
  71. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/durham-reports-shocking-findings-still-rejected-group-despite-media-lies-about-hunter-biden-trump
  72. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-popular-so-many-his-policies-democrats-tanking
  73. https://harvardharrispoll.com
  74. https://harvardharrispoll.com/press-release-june-2025/
  75. https://www.stagwellglobal.com/may-harvard-caps-harris-poll-trump-approval-holds-steady-as-attitudes-toward-the-economy-bounce-back-but-voters-express-concern-he-is-exceeding-guardrails-on-tariffs-and-deportations/
  76. https://harvardharrispoll.com/press-release-april-2025/
  77. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/august-harvard-caps--harris-poll-54-of-voters-say-trump-is-doing-a-better-job-than-biden-up-3-pts-from-july-as-approval-rating-stabilizes-at-47-302537776.html
  78. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5469430-trump-crime-reduction-poll/
  79. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/08/29/mark_penn_harvardharris_poll_shows_trump_getting_traction_with_voters_on_crime_issue.html
  80. https://harvardharrispoll.com/
  81. https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/HHP_Sep2025_KeyResults.pdf
  82. https://www.markpennpolls.com/
  83. https://www.harrisx.com/posts/june-2025-harvard-caps-harris-poll
  84. https://www.stagwellglobal.com/february-harvard-caps-harris-poll-58-of-voters-are-more-satisfied-with-trumps-job-as-president-than-biden/
  85. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/september-harvard-caps--harris-poll-70-of-voters-oppose-government-shutdown-with-65-in-favor-of-democratic-concessions-302575833.html
  86. https://harvardharrispoll.com/press-release-september-2025/
  87. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/july-harvard-caps--harris-poll-opinions-on-big-beautiful-bill-split-with-47-of-voters-supporting-it-but-most-policies-have-majority-support-with-many-popular-tax-cuts-302504272.html
  88. https://harvardharrispoll.com/press-release-january-2025/
  89. https://www.markpennpolls.com/episodes
  90. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/harvard-harris-poll-debrief-with-mark-penn-and-bob-cusack/id1479077790
  91. https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/523549-countdown-to-victory-but-whose/
  92. https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/harvard-harris-the-most-accurate-of-all-2020-election-polls/id1479077790?i=1000500126353
  93. https://markpenn.com/category/politics/
  94. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8boU62o2Ic
  95. https://joinouramerica.org/how-the-latino-vote-shifted-the-2024-election/
  96. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/mark-penn-8-lessons-democrats-donald-trump
  97. https://www.stagwellglobal.com/post-election-november-harvard-caps-harris-poll-trump-approval-rating-at-54-as-voters-hope-he-will-address-top-issues-of-inflation-and-immigration/
  98. https://thehill.com/policy/technology/3462947-more-than-half-of-voters-approve-of-musk-buying-twitter-poll/
  99. https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2022/12/08/stagwell-s-penn-says-twitter-was-sewer-musk-will-be-the-rotorooter-just-be
  100. https://adage.com/events-awards/cannes-lions/aa-stagwell-ceo-mark-penn-backs-x-amid-advertiser-pressure-tactics/
  101. https://x.com/Mark_Penn/status/1876785921053372615
  102. https://pagesix.com/2024/06/19/entertainment/stagwell-ceo-dishes-on-whether-taylor-swift-will-attend-cannes-lions-with-travis-kelce/
  103. https://www.adweek.com/agencies/mark-penn-and-mark-read-defend-decisions-to-meet-with-elon-musk-at-cannes/
  104. https://www.washingtonian.com/2006/08/01/when-marriage-and-politics-conflict/
  105. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/16/fashion/weddings/jacqueline-penn-alexander-deutsch.html
  106. https://washingtonlife.com/issues/2003-09/realestate/index.php
  107. https://georgetownministrycenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Winter.News_.2011.final_1.pdf
  108. https://www.semafor.com/article/06/20/2023/how-one-of-the-most-divisive-figures-in-democratic-politics-became-an-advertising-mogul
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