Instant-runoff voting
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Instant-runoff voting (IRV; US: ranked-choice voting (RCV), AU: preferential voting, UK/NZ: alternative vote) is a single-winner ranked voting election system where one or more eliminations are used to simulate multiple runoff elections. In each round, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes (among the remaining candidates) is eliminated. This continues until only one candidate is left. Instant runoff falls under the plurality-with-elimination family of voting methods,[1] and is thus closely related to methods like the two-round runoff system[2] and party primary systems.[3]

Instant-runoff voting has found some use in national elections in several countries, predominantly in the Anglosphere. It is used to elect members of the Australian House of Representatives and the National Parliament of Papua New Guinea, and to elect the head of state in India, Ireland, and Sri Lanka.

The system was first discussed by the Marquis de Condorcet, who showed the rule could eliminate the majority-preferred candidate (Condorcet winner).[4][5][6][7] Since then, instant-runoff voting has been criticized for other mathematical pathologies, including its ability to eliminate candidates for having too much support or too many votes.[8] Like first-past-the-post voting (FPTP), instant-runoff is vulnerable to a kind of spoiler effect called a center squeeze,[9][10] which causes it to favor uncompromising alternatives over more-moderate ones,[11][12][13][14] encouraging polarization.[15]

Advocates of instant-runoff voting often argue these properties are positive, as voting methods should encourage candidates to appeal to their core support or political base rather than a broad coalition.[16] They also note that in countries like the UK without primaries or runoffs, instant-runoff voting can prevent spoiler effects by eliminating minor-party candidates, because it avoids some kinds of vote-splitting by nearly identical (clone) candidates. IRV has also been described as a natural extension of the two-round system or primary elections that avoids multiple rounds of voting.[17]

Election procedure

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Flowchart of instant-runoff voting
Flowchart of instant-runoff voting

In instant-runoff voting, as with other ranked voting methods, each voter orders candidates from first to last. The counting procedure is then as follows:

  1. If there is more than one candidate left, eliminate the one with the fewest voters ranking them first.[a]
  2. Reassign votes held by the eliminated candidates to the next-highest preference on each ballot paper (setting aside any with no remaining preferences). Return to Step 1.

This procedure is often described as stopping when a candidate reaches a majority, but there is no guarantee that any candidate will reach more than half the votes. In practice, most candidates who do not have a majority in the first round never achieve a majority under IRV (i.e. most competitive elections do not end with a candidate reaching majority support).[18][19]

Properties and pathologies

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Center squeeze

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Distribution of winners on a simulated political compass, showing how center-squeeze extends to more complex or multi-dimensional models. The number of winners is displayed as a heatmap. The bias of FPTP, runoffs or primaries, and RCV (center-left column) is clearly visible.

A center squeeze is a kind of spoiler effect shared by rules like the two-round system, plurality-with-primaries, and ranked choice voting.[20] In a center squeeze, the majority-preferred and socially optimal candidate is eliminated in favor of a more extreme alternative in an early round, while there are still spoilers.[21][22] Systems with center squeeze are sometimes called centrifugal ("center-fleeing") because they encourage political polarization.[23]

Candidates focused on appealing to a small base of core supporters can "squeeze" broadly-popular candidates trapped between them out of the race, by splitting the first-preference votes needed to survive earlier rounds.[20][24][25] This effect was first predicted by social choice theorists in the 1940s and 50s, and has since been documented in various countries using plurality-style electoral systems.

Famous examples of center squeezes include Alaska's 2022 special election (where Nick Begich III was eliminated in the first round by Sarah Palin)[26] as well as the 2007 French presidential election, where moderate liberal François Bayrou was eliminated by left-wing SÊgolène Royal, allowing the right-wing Nicolas Sarkozy to win the second round.[27][28]

Wasted votes and Condorcet winners

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Compared to a plurality voting system that rewards only the top vote-getter using non-transferable votes, instant-runoff voting mitigates the problem of wasted votes.[29] However, it does not ensure the election of a Condorcet winner, which is the candidate who would win a direct election against any other candidate in the race.

Some advocates of instant-runoff voting argue that the failure to elect a Condorcet winner is positive, as it enables instant-runoff voting to pass later-no-help and later-no-harm, which together render the method immune to burying strategy. FairVote, in particular, has stated that they "believe [later-no-harm] is necessary in the context of high-stakes, competitive elections".[30]

Resistance to strategy

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Instant-runoff voting has notably high resistance to tactical voting but less to strategic nomination.

Party strategizing and strategic nomination

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In Australia, preference deals (where one party's voters agree to place another party's voters second, in return for their doing the same) between parties are common. Parties and candidates often encourage their supporters to participate in these preference deals using How-to-vote cards explaining how to use their lower rankings to maximize the chances of their ballot helping to elect someone in the preference deal before it may exhaust.[31]

Instant runoff may be manipulable via strategic candidate entry and exit, reducing similar candidates' chances of winning. Such manipulation does not need to be intentional, instead acting to deter candidates from running in the first place.[32] Spatial model simulations indicate that instant runoff rewards strategic withdrawal by candidates.[33][b]

Tactical voting

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Gibbard's theorem demonstrates that no (deterministic, non-dictatorial) voting method can be entirely immune from tactical voting. This implies that instant-runoff voting is susceptible to tactical voting in some circumstances. In particular, when there exists a Condorcet winner who instant-runoff voting fails to elect, voters who prefer the Condorcet winner to the instant-runoff voting winner have an incentive to use the compromising strategy.[33]: proposition 17  instant-runoff voting is also sometimes vulnerable to a paradoxical strategy of ranking a candidate higher to make them lose, due to instant-runoff voting failing the monotonicity criterion.[34]

Research suggests that instant-runoff voting is highly resistant to strategic voting. In a test of multiple methods, instant runoff was found to be the second-most-resistant to tactical voting, after a class of instant runoff-Condorcet hybrids.[35] Instant-runoff voting is also completely immune to the burying strategy: ranking a strong opposition candidate lower can't get one's preferred candidate elected.[33]: proposition 3 

Tactical voting in instant-runoff voting seeks to alter the order of eliminations in early rounds, to ensure that the original winner is challenged by a stronger opponent in the final round. For example, in a three-party election where voters for both the left and right prefer the centrist candidate to stop the opposing candidate from winning, those voters who care more about defeating the opposition than electing their own candidate may cast a tactical first-preference vote for the centrist candidate.

Spoiler effect

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Proponents of instant-runoff voting claim that instant-runoff voting eliminates the spoiler effect, since instant-runoff voting makes it safe to vote honestly for marginal parties. Under a plurality method, voters who sympathize most strongly with a marginal candidate are strongly encouraged to instead vote for a more popular candidate who shares some of the same principles, since that candidate has a much greater chance of being elected, and a vote for the marginal candidate will not result in the marginal candidate's election. Instant-runoff voting reduces this problem, since the voter can rank the marginal candidate first and the mainstream candidate second; in the likely event that the fringe candidate is eliminated, the vote is not wasted but is transferred to the second preference.

However, when the third-party candidate is more competitive, they can still act as a spoiler under instant-runoff voting,[36][37][38] by taking away first-choice votes from the more mainstream candidate until that candidate is eliminated, and then that candidate's second-choice votes helping a more-disliked candidate to win. In these scenarios, it would have been better for the third party voters if their candidate had not run at all (spoiler effect), or if they had voted dishonestly, ranking their second-favorite first and their favorite second, rather than first (favorite betrayal).[39][better source needed] This is the same bracketing effect exploited by Robinette and Tideman in their research on strategic campaigning, where a candidate alters their campaign to cause a change in voter honest choice, resulting in the elimination of a candidate who nevertheless remains more preferred by voters. This occurred in the 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election. If Republican Sarah Palin, who lost in the end, had not run, the more centrist Republican candidate, Nick Begich, was expected to have defeated the winning Democratic candidate, Mary Peltola, because the expectation was that the votes for the two Republican candidates would have been combined behind Begich and would have exceeded those of Peltola. This did not happen in the IRV election due to the way 15,000 Begich supporters marked their back-up preferences across party lines.[40]

This may be observed when a candidate leads in the first count but is in the end unsuccessful. For example, in the 2009 Burlington, Vermont, mayoral election, if Kurt Wright, the Republican candidate who lost in the end, had not run, the Democratic candidate, Andy Montroll, was expected to have defeated the winning Progressive candidate, Bob Kiss. In that sense, the Republican candidate was a spoiler—albeit for an opposing Democrat, rather than some political ally—even though he led in first-choice support.[38]

Failed criteria

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Condorcet winner criterion

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The Condorcet winner criterion states that "if a candidate would win a head-to-head competition against every other candidate, then that candidate must win the overall election". It is incompatible with the later-no-harm criterion, so instant-runoff voting does not meet this criterion.

Instant-runoff voting is more likely to elect the Condorcet winner than plurality voting and traditional runoff elections. The California cities of Oakland, San Francisco and San Leandro in 2010 provide an example; there were a total of four elections in which the plurality-voting leader in first-choice rankings was defeated, and in each case the instant-runoff voting winner was the Condorcet winner, including a San Francisco election in which the instant-runoff voting winner was in third place in first choice rankings.

A particularly notable Condorcet failure occurred in the 2009 Burlington mayoral election.

Independence of irrelevant alternatives

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The independence of irrelevant alternatives criterion states that "the election outcome remains the same even if a candidate who cannot win decides to run." Instant-runoff voting violates this. In the general case, instant-runoff voting can be susceptible to strategic nomination: whether or not a candidate decides to run at all can affect the result even if the new candidate cannot themselves win. This is less likely to happen than under plurality, but much more likely than under the Minimax Condorcet method.[33]

Monotonicity criterion

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The monotonicity criterion says that a voter ranking a candidate higher on their ballot should not cause that candidate to lose and conversely, that a voter ranking a candidate lower on their ballot should not help that candidate win. The exact probability of a monotonicity failure depends on the circumstances, but with 3 major candidates, the probabilities range from 15 percent under the impartial culture model[41]: Table 6  to 8.5 percent in the case of a strict left–right spectrum.[42]

Participation criterion

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The participation criterion says that candidates should not lose as a result of having "too many voters"—a set of ballots that all rank A>B should not switch the election winner from A to B. Instant-runoff voting fails this criterion. In his 1984 study, mathematician Depankar Ray found that in elections where instant-runoff voting elects a different candidate from plurality, that there was an estimated 50 percent probability that some voters would have received a more preferable outcome if they had not participated.[43]

Reversal symmetry criterion

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The reversal symmetry criterion states that the first- and last-place candidates should switch places if every ballot is reversed. In other words, it should not matter whether voters rank candidates from best-to-worst and select the best candidate, or whether they rank them worst-to-best and then select the least-bad candidate.

Instant-runoff voting fails this criterion: it is possible to construct an election where reversing the order of every ballot does not alter the final winner; that is, the first- and last-place finishers, according to instant-runoff voting, are the same candidate.[44]

Criticism

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The system has had a mixed reception among political scientists and social choice theorists.[45][46] Some have suggested that the system does not do much to decrease the impact of wasted votes relative to plurality.[47][48][49] Research has found instant-runoff voting causes lower confidence in elections[50][51][52] and does not substantially affect minority representation,[53] voter turnout,[45][49] or long-run electoral competition.[45][53] Opponents have also noted a high rate of repeals for the system.[51]

Similarity to plurality

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Often instant-runoff voting elections are won by the candidate who leads in first-count vote tallies so they choose the same winner as first-past-the-post voting would have. Such similarity between the two systems means the disproportionality of IRV is about same as results under first-past-the-post.

Of the Australia federal elections, the 1972 election had the largest number of winners who would not have won under first-past-the-post, but still only 14 out of 125 seats filled were not won by the first-count leader.[54] In the Australian federal election in September 2013, 135 out of the 150 House of Representatives seats (or 90 percent) were won by the candidate who led on first preferences. The other 15 seats (10 percent) were won by the candidate who placed second on first preferences.[55]

Participation

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The effect of instant-runoff voting on voter turnout is difficult to assess. In a 2021 report, researchers at New America, a think tank based in Washington, D.C., said it may increase turnout by attracting more and more diverse candidates, but the impact would be realized most significantly by eliminating the need for primaries.[56] The overall impact on diversity of candidates is difficult to detect.[45]

Invalid, incomplete and exhausted ballots

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All forms of ranked-choice voting reduce to plurality when all ballots rank only one candidate. By extension, ballots for which all candidates ranked are eliminated are equivalent to votes for any non-winner in plurality, and considered exhausted ballots.

Some political scientists have found the IRV system contributes to higher rates of spoiled votes,[48] partly because the ballot marking is more complex.[48][18] Most jurisdictions with instant-runoff voting do not require complete rankings and may use columns to indicate preference instead of numbers. In American elections with instant-runoff voting, more than 99 percent of voters typically cast a valid ballot.[57]

A 2015 study of four local US elections that used instant-runoff voting found that inactive ballots occurred often enough in each of them that the winner of each election did not receive a majority of votes cast in the first round. The rate of inactive ballots in each election ranged from a low of 9.6 percent to a high of 27.1 percent.[58]

Terminology

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While instant run-off voting is distinguished from its multiple winner equivalent, the single transferable vote, most English-speaking discussion of electoral systems does not differentiate them. In Ireland, one of the few countries to use these systems in all elections, no distinction between the two is made, either by the general population or in legal texts. The Constitution of Ireland describes the electoral system as "proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote",[59] as do all other statutory authorities, when referring to either single-winner or multiple-winner elections. The acronym "PR-STV" is in general use to describe both types of elections. Examples of single-winner elections in Ireland which are described officially as "proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote" are the election of the President and the election of the Ceann Comhairle (chairperson of Dáil Éireann). The lack of distinction between the systems in Ireland reflects that there is no difference in the mechanics of the process from election to election, only the number of candidates to be elected by that process. This is not always the case when discussing the systems in the abstract, as there are many variations in how such elections could be run.

Instant-runoff voting derives its name from the way the ballot count simulates a series of runoffs, similar to an exhaustive ballot system, except that voters do not need to turn out several times to vote.[60] It is also known as the alternative vote, transferable vote, ranked-choice voting (RCV), single-seat ranked-choice voting, or preferential voting (but use of some of those terms may lead to misunderstanding as they also apply to single transferable vote.)[61]

Britons and New Zealanders generally call instant-runoff voting the "alternative vote" (AV).[62][63] Australians, who use instant-runoff voting for most single winner elections, call instant-runoff voting "preferential voting".[64] While this term is widely used by Australians, it is somewhat of a misnomer. Depending on how "preferential" is defined, the term would include all voting systems, apply to any system that uses ranked ballots (thus both instant-runoff voting and single transferable vote), or would exclude instant-runoff voting (instant-runoff voting fails positive responsiveness because ballot markings are not interpreted as "preferences" in the traditional sense. Under instant-runoff voting (and single transferable vote), secondary preferences are used as back-up preferences/contingency votes).

Jurisdictions in the United States such as San Francisco, Minneapolis, Maine, and Alaska have tended to use the term "ranked-choice voting" in their laws that apply to instant-runoff voting contests. The San Francisco Department of Elections claimed the word "instant" in the term "instant-runoff voting" could confuse voters into expecting results to be immediately available.[65][66] As a result of American influence, the term ranked-choice voting is often used in Canada as well.[67] When discussing his promise of electoral reform, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau used the term "preferential ballot".[68]

American NGO FairVote has promoted the terminology "ranked-choice voting" to refer to instant-runoff voting,[67][69] a choice that has caused controversy and accusations that the organization is attempting to obscure the existence of other ranked-choice methods that are competing or could compete with instant-runoff voting.[citation needed]

Instant-runoff voting is occasionally referred to as Hare's method[70] (after Thomas Hare) to differentiate it from other ranked-choice voting methods such as majority-choice voting, Borda, and Bucklin, which use weighted preferences or methods that allow voter's lower preference to be used against voter's most-preferred choice.

When the single transferable vote (STV) method is applied to a single-winner election, it becomes instant-runoff voting; the government of Ireland has called instant-runoff voting "proportional representation" based on the fact that the same ballot form is used to elect its president by instant-runoff voting and parliamentary seats by proportional representation (single transferable vote), but instant-runoff voting is a non-proportional single-winner election method, while single transferable vote elects multiple winners and produces minority representation, as well as majority representation, in almost all cases.[71]

State law in South Carolina[72] and Arkansas[73] use "instant runoff" to describe the practice of having certain categories of absentee voters cast ranked-choice ballots before the first round of an election and counting those ballots in any subsequent runoff elections.

History and use

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History

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According to mathematician Edward J. Nanson, the method was first described by the Marquis de Condorcet in 1788, "but only to be condemned".[74][75] It was later independently reinvented by Thomas Hare (of England) and Carl Andrae (of Denmark) in the form of the single transferable vote, while Henry Richmond Droop and William R. Ware were the first to apply it to single-winner races.[76][77]

Adoption

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Instant-runoff voting has found some use in national elections in several countries, predominantly in the Anglosphere. It is used to elect members of the Australian House of Representatives and the National Parliament of Papua New Guinea, and to elect the head of state in India, Ireland, and Sri Lanka.[citation needed]

In Alaska, it is used for general elections, after a top-four nonpartisan primary,[78] while in Maine it is used for both general elections and for primary elections (held separately by each party), excluding those for president.[79][80][81]

Robert's Rules of Order

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In the United States, the sequential elimination method used by instant-runoff voting is described in Robert's Rules of Order Newly Revised as an example of ranked-choice voting that can be used to elect officers.[82] Robert's Rules note that ranked-choice systems (including instant-runoff voting) are an improvement on simple plurality but recommend against runoff-based methods because they often prevent the emergence of a consensus candidate with broad support. The book instead recommends repeated balloting until some candidate manages to win a majority of votes. Two other books on American parliamentary procedure, The Standard Code of Parliamentary Procedure[83] and Riddick's Rules of Procedure,[84] take a similar stance.

Examples

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1990 Irish presidential election

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The 1990 Irish presidential election provides a simple example of how instant-runoff voting can produce a different result from first-preference plurality and prevent some kinds of vote-splitting. The three major candidates were Brian Lenihan of Fianna FĂĄil, Austin Currie of Fine Gael, and Mary Robinson of the Labour Party. In the first round, Lenihan had the largest share of first-choice rankings but not a majority. Currie had the fewest votes and was eliminated. After this, Robinson received 82 percent of Currie's votes. This was enough for her vote tally to pass that of Lenihan.

Irish presidential election, 1990[85]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2
Mary Robinson 612,265 38.7% 817,830 51.6%
Brian Lenihan 694,484 43.8% 731,273 46.2%
Austin Currie 267,902 16.9%☒N Eliminated
Exhausted ballots 9,444 0.6% 34,992 2.2%
Total 1,584,095 100% 1,584,095 100%

2014 Prahran election (Victoria)

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Another real-life example of instant-runoff voting producing results different from first-past-the-post can be seen in the 2014 Victorian general election in Prahran. In this rare instance, the candidate who initially placed third, (Greens candidate Sam Hibbins), won the seat.[86] In the 7th and final round, Hibbins narrowly defeated Liberal candidate Clem Newton-Brown by a margin of 277 votes, having eliminated Neil Pharaoh by the even narrower margin of 31 votes in the previous round.

Candidate 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Clem Newton-Brown (LIB) 44.8% 16,582 16,592 16,644 16,726 16,843 17,076 18,363 49.6%
Neil Pharaoh (ALP) 25.9% 9,586 9,593 9,639 9,690 9,758 9,948 ☒NEliminated
Sam Hibbins (GRN) 24.8% 9,160 9,171 9,218 9,310 9,403 9,979 18,640 50.4%
Eleonora Gullone (AJP) 2.3% 837 860 891 928 999 ☒NEliminated
Alan Walker (FFP) 0.8% 282 283 295 ☒NEliminated
Jason Goldsmith (IND) 0.7% 247 263 316 349 ☒NEliminated
Steve Stefanopoulos (IND) 0.6% 227 241 ☒NEliminated
Alan Menadue (IND) 0.2% 82 ☒NEliminated
Total 100% 37,003

2009 Burlington mayoral election

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Burlington mayoral election, 2009 (round-by-round analysis of votes)
Candidates 1st round 2nd round 3rd round
Candidate Party Votes Âą Votes Âą Votes Âą
Bob Kiss Progressive 2585 +2585 2981 +396 4313 +1332
Kurt Wright Republican 2951 +2951 3294 +343 4061 +767
Andy Montroll Democrat 2063 +2063 2554 +491 Eliminated
Dan Smith Independent 1306 +1306 Eliminated
Others 71 +71 Eliminated
Exhausted 4 +4 151 +147 606 +455

Burlington, Vermont's second IRV election in 2009 resulted in Bob Kiss defeating the majority-preferred candidate, Andy Montroll. Although 54 percent of voters ranked Montroll above Kiss, Montroll was defeated as a result of a first-round spoiler effect,[87] violating the principle of majority rule.[88][89][90][91]

FairVote touted the 2009 election as one of its major success stories,[92] claiming it helped the city save on costs of a traditional runoff[92][93] and prevented a spoiler effect,[94] although later analysis showed that without Wright in the election, Montroll would have defeated Kiss in a one-on-one race.[88]

Mathematicians and voting theorists criticized the election results as revealing several pathologies associated with instant-runoff voting, noting Kiss only won because of 750 votes cast against his candidacy (ranking Kiss in last place).[95][96]

Similar methods

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Runoff voting

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The term instant-runoff voting is derived from the name of a class of voting methods called runoff voting. In runoff voting voters do not rank candidates on the ballot - each voter marks only one preference. When no candidate receives a majority of voters in the first round, voters cast votes in two or more subsequent rounds of voting as the field of candidates is reduced. Multi-round runoff voting methods allow voters to change their preferences in each round, incorporating the results of the prior round to influence their decision, which is not possible in instant-runoff voting.

The runoff method closest to instant-runoff voting is the exhaustive ballot. In this method—familiar to fans of the television show American Idol—one candidate is eliminated in each round, and many rounds of voting may be necessary. Because holding many rounds of voting on separate days is generally expensive, the exhaustive ballot is not used for large-scale, public elections.

A more practical form of runoff voting is the two-round system. If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round, all but the top-two candidates are excluded after the first round, and just one more round of voting determines the winner. Eliminations can occur with or without allowing and applying preference votes to choose the final two candidates. This method is used in Mali and France, and in Finnish and Slovenian presidential elections.

Contingent vote

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Top-two instant-runoff voting

The contingent vote, also known as "top-two instant-runoff voting" ("top-two IRV"), is the same as instant-runoff voting, except that if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round of counting, all but the two candidates with the most votes are eliminated, and the second preferences for those ballots are counted. As in instant-runoff voting, there is only one round of voting. Unlike instant-runoff voting, the vote count process entails only two rounds of counting, while instant-runoff voting can entail many rounds.

Under a variant of contingent voting used in Sri Lanka, and formerly for the elections for Mayor of London in the United Kingdom, voters rank a specified maximum number of candidates. In London, the supplementary vote allowed[c] voters to express first and second preferences only. Sri Lankan voters rank up to three candidates to elect the president of Sri Lanka.

While similar to "sequential-elimination" instant-runoff voting, top-two can produce different results. Excluding more than one candidate after the first count might eliminate a candidate who would have won under sequential elimination instant-runoff voting. Restricting voters to a maximum number of preferences is more likely to exhaust ballots if voters do not anticipate which candidates will finish in the top two. This can encourage voters to vote more tactically, by ranking at least one candidate they think is likely to win.

Conversely, a practical benefit of 'contingent voting' is expediency and confidence in the result with only two rounds.

Larger runoff process

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Instant-runoff voting may also be part of a larger runoff process:

  • Some jurisdictions that hold runoff elections allow absentee (only) voters to submit ranked ballots, because the interval between rounds of balloting is too short for a second round of absentee voting. Ranked ballots enable absentee votes to count in the second (general) election round if their first choice does not make the second round runoff. Arkansas, South Carolina and Springfield, Illinois adopt this approach.[97] Louisiana uses it only for members of the United States Service or who reside overseas.[98][better source needed][needs update]
  • Under some exhaustive ballot runoff systems, instant-runoff voting may be used to quickly eliminate some weak candidates in early rounds, using rules to leave a desired number of candidates for further balloting.
  • Instant-runoff voting elections that require a majority of cast ballots but not that voters rank all candidates may require more than a single instant-runoff voting contest due to exhausted ballots.[citation needed] (Most IRV systems require a winner to have only a majority of votes still in play, not a majority of votes cast.)
  • Robert's Rules recommends preferential voting for elections by mail and requiring a majority of votes to elect a winner. For in-person elections, they recommend repeated balloting until one candidate receives a majority of votes; if candidates drop out when it becomes clear they will not win, this procedure will always elect a Condorcet winner. The use of repeated balloting allows voters to resolve Condorcet cycles by discussion and compromise, or by electing a consensus candidate who might have polled poorly in the initial election.[82]

Variations

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Example of a full preferential ballot paper

A number of instant-runoff voting methods, varying as to ballot design and as to whether or not voters are obliged to rank all the candidates, are in use in different countries and local governments.

In an optional preferential voting system, voters can give a preference to as many candidates as they wish. They may make only a single choice, known as "bullet voting", and some jurisdictions accept a single box marked with an "X" (as opposed to a numeral "1") as valid for the first preference. Bullet voting may result in exhausted ballots, where all of a voter's preferences are eliminated before a candidate is elected, such that the "majority" in the final round may constitute only a minority of all ballots cast. Optional preferential voting is used for elections for the President of Ireland as well as some elections in New South Wales and Queensland.[99][100]

In a full-preferential voting method, voters are required to mark a preference for every candidate standing.[101] Ballots that do not contain a ranking of all candidates are in some jurisdictions considered spoilt or invalid, even if there are only two candidates standing. The full-preferential voting method can become burdensome in elections with many candidates and can lead to "donkey voting", in which some voters simply choose candidates at random or in top-to-bottom order, or a voter may order his or her preferred candidates and then fill in the remainder on a donkey basis. Full preferential voting is used for elections to the Australian federal parliament and for most state parliaments.

Other methods only allow marking preferences for a maximum of the voter's top three favorites, a form of partial preferential voting.[102] Such a system produces exhausted votes even when the voter would have been willing to rank more candidates.

A version of instant-runoff voting applying to the ranking of parties was first proposed for elections in Germany in 2013[103] as spare vote.[citation needed]

See also

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Notes

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References

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Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia
from Grokipedia
Instant-runoff voting (IRV), also known as ranked-choice voting (RCV) in some contexts, the alternative vote (UK and New Zealand), preferential voting (Australia), or the single transferable vote (Ireland and India), is a single-winner electoral system in which voters rank candidates in descending order of preference rather than selecting a single choice.[1] If no candidate garners a majority of first-preference votes, the contender with the fewest such votes is eliminated, and those ballots are reassigned to the voters' subsequent preferences; this elimination and redistribution continues iteratively until one candidate secures over 50% of the active votes.[2] The method aims to produce outcomes reflective of majority support while mitigating spoiler effects associated with plurality voting, though it does not guarantee selection of the Condorcet winner—the candidate who would prevail in pairwise contests against all others.[3] IRV traces its conceptual roots to the development of single transferable vote systems in the mid-19th century, with practical adoption beginning in Australia, where Queensland implemented it for parliamentary elections in 1892 and the federal House of Representatives followed in 1918.[4] It has since been employed for national legislative or presidential elections in countries including Ireland, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea, as well as in various subnational contexts such as U.S. states Maine and Alaska for federal races since 2018 and 2022, respectively, and municipal elections in cities like San Francisco since 2004.[5] Proponents argue it fosters broader candidate viability and less negative campaigning by incentivizing appeal to second-choice voters, yet empirical analyses reveal mixed results: while some local studies indicate modest increases in voter turnout and candidate diversity, others find no consistent reduction in polarization or strategic voting, with long-term use in Australia showing persistent two-party dominance despite multicandidate fields.[3][6] Notable controversies underscore IRV's limitations, including its failure to satisfy the monotonicity criterion—whereby elevating a candidate's ranking can paradoxically cause their defeat—as demonstrated in theoretical models and real elections like Burlington, Vermont's 2009 mayoral contest, where the plurality winner lost after redistributions in a "center-squeeze" scenario, prompting voters to repeal the system by 52% in 2010.[7][8] Peer-reviewed research highlights such pathologies, including vulnerability to non-monotonic outcomes and incomplete spoiler mitigation compared to pairwise methods, leading some jurisdictions to abandon it amid concerns over transparency, voter confusion, and unintended electoral reversals.[9][10] Despite these issues, adoption continues in select areas, with ongoing debates centered on causal evidence from implementations showing variable impacts on representation and participation.[11]

Procedure

Counting process

Instant-runoff voting tabulates ballots through successive rounds to determine a winner with majority support among continuing active ballots. The process commences with an initial count of first-preference votes for each candidate from all valid ballots.[12] A quota, typically defined as more than 50% of the total valid votes plus one, is calculated based on the initial formal ballots.[13] If a candidate receives votes equal to or exceeding this quota in the first round, that candidate is elected.[12] In cases where no candidate meets the quota initially, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated.[12] The votes from the eliminated candidate's ballots are then redistributed to the next-highest preference indicated on those ballots, provided such a preference exists and has not been eliminated.[12] This redistribution occurs at full value, as all votes start with unit value in standard implementations.[13] The updated tallies are recounted, and the process repeats: checking for a quota met, or eliminating the new lowest candidate if not.[12] Rounds continue iteratively until one candidate achieves the quota or only one candidate remains with votes, at which point that candidate is declared the winner, reflecting majority preference among the ballots still in contention.[12] [13] In jurisdictions like Australia, the quota remains fixed throughout based on initial valid votes, allowing a winner potentially with support from less than half the original electorate if significant ballot exhaustion occurs before the final round.[13] When only two candidates remain, the one receiving more votes in that round wins, even if below the original quota.[12] Ties for elimination, such as multiple candidates sharing the fewest votes, are resolved according to jurisdiction-specific rules, often involving simultaneous elimination of tied candidates or tie-breaking via auxiliary counts of higher preferences or random selection to honor voter intent without arbitrary exclusion.[14] Final ties for the quota may invoke similar mechanisms or recount provisions to ensure determinacy.[14]

Ballot exhaustion and invalidation

In instant-runoff voting, ballot exhaustion occurs when a ballot ceases to contribute to the tabulation because all candidates ranked on it have been eliminated, typically due to incomplete voter rankings. Exhausted ballots are then excluded from further rounds, diminishing the pool of active votes and thereby contracting the effective electorate size as the process advances toward selecting a majority winner. This mechanism stems from the requirement for transferable preferences, where only ballots with viable continuing rankings influence eliminations and redistributions.[15] Empirical data from U.S. jurisdictions implementing IRV reveal exhaustion rates varying by election and voter behavior, often ranging from 5% to over 20%. For instance, an analysis of four ranked-choice elections, including those in San Francisco and Minneapolis, documented exhaustion affecting 9.6% to 27.1% of ballots, with higher incidences linked to truncated rankings rather than random errors. In San Francisco's 2011 mayoral contest, exhaustion reached 27%, substantially reducing active ballots in final rounds. These rates reflect causal factors like voter fatigue or strategic truncation, which limit preference expression and can skew outcomes by excluding portions of the original electorate from decisive counts.[16] Ballot invalidation in IRV arises from marking errors such as overvotes—ranking the same candidate multiple times or exceeding allowable ranks—or ambiguous notations like skipped ranks without clear intent. Jurisdictional rules diverge: some, like certain California locales, exhaust ballots at the first overvote while preserving later rankings, whereas others invalidate the entire ballot outright, forgoing any usable preferences. A 2021 legal review of IRV implementations across U.S. sites highlighted this patchwork, noting that stricter invalidation policies amplify discarded votes when voters err in early preferences.[17] In practice, invalidation rates under IRV exceed those in single-mark plurality systems, attributable to the cognitive demands of ranking, with studies reporting elevated rejection frequencies. A 2023 examination of over 150 elections found rejected ballots more prevalent in ranked-choice contests, often 2-3 times higher than comparable non-RCV races, due to over-ranking and incomprehension. Another analysis of RCV implementations indicated error rates up to 10-15% in initial counts, compared to under 2% in plurality, with discrepancies persisting despite voter education efforts. These errors causally diminish vote validity, particularly among less experienced or lower-information voters, independent of demographic factors in some datasets.[18][19]

Terminology

Core terms and definitions

Instant-runoff voting (IRV), also known as ranked-choice voting (RCV) or the alternative vote (AV), is a single-winner electoral system in which voters rank candidates in order of preference on the ballot, and votes are iteratively redistributed from eliminated candidates or surpluses until one candidate achieves a majority of active votes.[1][12][20] In this method, a quota is typically set at more than 50% of valid votes for election, with counting proceeding in rounds to simulate sequential runoff elections without requiring multiple voting events.[21][22] Preference ranking refers to the process by which voters indicate an ordered list of candidates, marking their most preferred as first choice, next as second, and so on, allowing subsequent preferences to activate if higher ones are exhausted.[12][23] Surplus transfer occurs when a candidate receives votes exceeding the quota in a round; the excess votes (surplus) are redistributed proportionally to the next preferences on those ballots, often at a fractional value to maintain equivalence.[21] An eliminated candidate is one with the fewest continuing votes in a round, whose ballots are then transferred en bloc to the next ranked preference on each ballot, excluding exhausted votes lacking further viable rankings.[1][24] Unlike the single non-transferable vote (SNTV), which limits voters to a single non-transferable choice in multi-member districts with winners determined by plurality among top vote-getters, IRV employs full preference rankings and transfers for single-seat contests to ensure majority support.[25] IRV also differs from proportional representation systems, which allocate multiple seats based on vote shares using transferable preferences across districts, whereas IRV targets a single majority winner without proportionality.[25][26] Instant-runoff voting (IRV), also known as the alternative vote, is a single-winner electoral system that eliminates candidates iteratively based on first-choice votes until one achieves a majority of active ballots. It differs fundamentally from the single transferable vote (STV), which is designed for multi-winner elections in multi-member districts to achieve proportional representation. In STV, candidates must meet or exceed a Droop quota (typically votes divided by seats plus one) to be elected, with surplus votes from winners transferred proportionally at reduced value, and votes from eliminated candidates also transferred until all seats are filled; this process allows multiple candidates to win seats reflective of voter support distribution, whereas IRV lacks any quota mechanism or proportionality, focusing solely on selecting one winner without regard for broader representation.[27] Unlike approval voting, which permits voters to select ("approve") any number of candidates without ranking and elects the one with the most approvals, IRV requires voters to provide an ordinal ranking of all or some candidates, with vote transfers occurring only from lower-ranked preferences after eliminations. This ordinal structure in IRV aims to simulate preference intensity through rankings but can lead to exhausted ballots if rankings are incomplete, whereas approval voting treats each approval equally without exhaustion or ranking complexity, potentially better capturing cardinal utilities where voters approve multiple viable options.[28] IRV also diverges from two-round runoff systems, such as top-two or majority runoff, where an initial plurality round advances the top candidates (often two) to a second election in which only those candidates appear, allowing voters to cast fresh ballots informed by the reduced field, new campaign developments, or strategic reassessment. In contrast, IRV conducts all counting on a single initial ballot, transferring votes mechanically without opportunity for voter revision, which assumes static preferences but overlooks causal dynamics where real runoffs might alter turnout, endorsements, or preferences based on observed advancements—evident in systems like France's presidential elections since 1965, where second-round participation and shifts have decided outcomes differently from hypothetical IRV simulations.[29][30]

Theoretical Properties

Criteria satisfied by IRV

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) satisfies the majority criterion, which requires that if one candidate receives first-preference votes from an absolute majority of voters, that candidate must win the election.[31][32] In IRV, such a candidate secures more than 50% of first-preference votes in the initial counting round, eliminating the need for further eliminations or vote transfers, thereby guaranteeing victory without subsequent rounds.[33] This property follows directly from the procedure's design, as no other candidate can surpass the majority in the first tally, and the process halts upon reaching a majority threshold.[34] IRV also meets the Condorcet loser criterion, stipulating that a candidate who loses head-to-head matchups against every other contender—receiving fewer than 50% of preferences in every pairwise comparison—cannot be elected.[32][35] A Condorcet loser lacks sufficient broad support to survive eliminations in IRV, as opponents would consistently outpoll them in transfers from eliminated candidates, leading to early elimination before attaining a majority.[32] Formal verification confirms this outcome, as the iterative elimination process ensures no such universally dominated candidate accumulates winning support.[35] Additionally, IRV complies with the mutual majority criterion (also known as the Smith criterion in some formulations), which holds that if a majority of voters—more than 50%—mutually prefer one candidate over all others in their rankings, that candidate must win.[34] This group forms a cohesive bloc whose preferences dominate non-members, ensuring their favored candidate receives sustained transfers within the bloc during eliminations, preventing outsiders from gaining a majority.[34] The criterion's satisfaction stems from IRV's quota of 50% plus one, aligning with the bloc's size to block any alternative from prevailing.[34]

Criteria failed by IRV

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) fails the Condorcet criterion, which stipulates that if one candidate pairwise defeats every other candidate in head-to-head matchups, that candidate must win the election.[36] This failure manifests in the "center-squeeze" effect, where a moderate candidate preferred by a majority over extremes is eliminated early due to insufficient first-preference votes, despite being the Condorcet winner.[36] For example, consider an election with candidates Elle, Don, and Key, and the following preferences among 854 voters:
  • 342: Elle > Don > Key
  • 214: Don > Key > Elle
  • 298: Key > Don > Elle
In the first round, Don receives 214 first-place votes and is eliminated. The 214 votes transfer to Key, giving Key 512 votes against Elle's 342, so Key wins.[36] Pairwise, however, Don defeats Elle (512–342) and Key (556–298), making Don the Condorcet winner eliminated by IRV.[36] IRV also violates the monotonicity criterion, under which increasing support for a candidate—by voters raising that candidate in their rankings—should not cause the candidate to lose.[37] Upward monotonicity failure occurs when additional first-preference votes for a frontrunner trigger an earlier elimination of another candidate, redirecting transfers unfavorably.[37] A simplified profile from the 2009 Burlington, Vermont mayoral election illustrates this: with Republican (X) at 39% first preferences, Democrat (Y) at 27%, and Progressive (Z) at 34%, Y is eliminated, and Z receives 63% of Y's votes to win 51%–49% over X.[37] If 13% of voters shift from X to Z (raising Z to 47%, X to 26%, Y unchanged at 27%), X is now eliminated first; transfers then favor Y over Z, causing Z to lose despite the vote increase.[37] IRV fails the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) criterion, which requires that the winner between two candidates remains unchanged if an irrelevant third candidate is added or removed, without altering relative preferences between the original pair.[38] In IRV, introducing a low-support candidate can alter the elimination sequence and vote transfers, flipping the outcome between frontrunners even if the added candidate garners minimal support.[38] Theoretical analyses identify this as a core flaw, as the method's reliance on sequential eliminations ties results to the full field rather than pairwise stability.[38]

Pathologies and Vulnerabilities

Non-monotonicity and participation paradoxes

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) fails the monotonicity criterion, meaning that increasing support for a candidate—such as by more voters ranking them higher—can cause that candidate to be eliminated earlier or lose the election altogether. This counterintuitive behavior stems from IRV's sequential elimination process, where surges in first-preference votes for a frontrunner can accelerate the elimination of a candidate whose supporters would otherwise transfer votes favorably to the frontrunner in later rounds. In three-candidate elections, monotonicity failure typically manifests when additional support for the initial leader prompts the premature elimination of a moderate rival, allowing a less-preferred candidate's votes to dominate the final pairwise contest.[39][37] Spatial models of voter preferences, which simulate elections based on candidate positions in a policy space and probabilistic voter ideal points, estimate the frequency of such non-monotonicity in three-candidate IRV contests at a lower bound of approximately 10%, with actual occurrences likely higher depending on preference intensity and distribution. These models draw from impartial culture assumptions adjusted for spatial clustering, revealing that failures are not pathological outliers but recurrent under realistic conditions where candidates are ideologically differentiated.[40] IRV also exhibits the participation paradox, where the addition of more participating voters—who rank the apparent winner as their top choice—can lead to that candidate's defeat. This negative participation effect occurs if the new voters inadvertently bolster a rival's position in early eliminations, diverting transfers away from the original favorite in decisive later rounds. In three-candidate settings, theoretical calculations under uniform random preference models yield probabilities for this paradox ranging from low single digits to over 5% in empirical simulations of real-world data, underscoring its potential in fragmented electorates.[41][42]

Condorcet and majority preference failures

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) fails the Condorcet criterion, as it does not guarantee the election of a Condorcet winner—a candidate who defeats every opponent in pairwise majority comparisons—when one exists among voter preferences.[43] This occurs because IRV eliminates candidates sequentially based on first-preference tallies and transfers, potentially discarding a broadly preferred candidate early if their initial support is diluted across voter rankings.[44] A prominent manifestation is the center-squeeze effect, where a centrist candidate garners insufficient first preferences due to vote-splitting among ideologically similar extremes but would prevail in head-to-head matchups against those rivals. In such scenarios, the moderate's elimination prevents their second- or lower-preference support from influencing the outcome, perpetuating a form of vote inefficiency akin to wasted ballots in plurality systems, as holistic majority preferences are overridden by the causal primacy of initial rankings. The 2022 Alaska special election for U.S. House exemplifies this pathology: Republican Nick Begich, eliminated in the first round with 31.01% of first preferences, was the Condorcet winner, defeating Democrat Mary Peltola 52.51%–47.49% and Republican Sarah Palin 61.41%–38.59% in pairwise contests derived from the cast vote record.[43] Peltola ultimately won with 51.48% after Palin's elimination, despite Begich's majority support over both competitors individually.[43] Empirical analyses of cast vote records from 378 real-world IRV elections (2004–2023, excluding those with initial majorities) reveal Condorcet failures in approximately 1% of cases, including the aforementioned Alaska contest and Burlington, Vermont's 2009 mayoral race.[44] While infrequent, these instances demonstrate IRV's structural vulnerability to electing candidates not reflective of pairwise majorities, prioritizing sequential elimination over comprehensive preference aggregation.[44]

Strategic voting incentives

In instant-runoff voting (IRV), voters face incentives to engage in strategic voting, or tactical misrepresentation of preferences, to influence elimination outcomes and maximize the likelihood of a preferred candidate winning. One primary strategy is burying, where a voter ranks a candidate they moderately prefer—potentially a rival who could consolidate opposition votes—sufficiently low on their ballot to accelerate that candidate's elimination in early rounds. This maneuver allows the voter's top choice to face a weaker final opponent, as the buried candidate's supporters may redistribute votes to less competitive alternatives rather than bolstering a frontrunner. Game-theoretic models demonstrate that such deviations from sincere rankings can yield higher utility for the strategist when assuming other voters rank sincerely, particularly in multi-candidate fields where pairwise preferences do not align with first-round support.[45] A complementary tactic is compromising, in which voters insincerely elevate a less-preferred but more viable "compromise" candidate to the top rank to preempt the advancement of a deeply disliked option through subsequent redistributions. For instance, if a voter's true ordering places an ideal but fringe candidate first, they may prioritize a centrist alternative higher to block an extremist from reaching the final pairing, exploiting IRV's iterative elimination to simulate a preferred runoff dynamic. Theoretical analyses reveal that these incentives arise from the ordinal nature of rankings combined with uncertainty over elimination sequences, creating non-monotonic payoff structures where sincere voting does not constitute a Nash equilibrium in equilibrium refinements like sophisticated voting.[46][45] Beyond individual ballot strategies, IRV encourages upstream manipulations in candidate nomination processes, as parties or factions anticipate vote-splitting risks akin to plurality systems despite the ranked format. To avoid diluting support across similar candidates—who might eliminate each other prematurely without transferring cohesively—nominees are selected to maximize ideological distinctiveness and first-preference consolidation, effectively mirroring plurality's spoiler dynamics in disguise. Simulations grounded in spatial voting models confirm that these nomination incentives persist, as clustered candidates reduce the effective strategy resistance claimed for IRV by forcing preemptive coordination rather than genuine preference expression.[45] Overall, while IRV's sequential counting ostensibly mitigates some plurality-style bullet voting, first-principles examination of voter utility maximization under incomplete information reveals persistent strategic equilibria. Quantitative assessments indicate that, under sincere-voting assumptions for others, a greater proportion of voters can profitably deviate in IRV compared to plurality, underscoring that ordinal inputs alone do not eliminate gaming opportunities in non-deterministic electoral environments.[46][45]

Empirical Evidence

Observed election outcomes

In empirical analyses of instant-runoff voting (IRV) elections, the candidate leading in first-preference votes prevails in the majority of observed cases, particularly when a clear frontrunner emerges early. However, upsets occur where IRV redistributes preferences to elevate a trailing candidate, diverging from plurality outcomes. A prominent example is the 2009 Burlington, Vermont mayoral election, where Progressive Bob Kiss received 2,593 first-preference votes (26.6% of valid ballots) compared to Republican Kurt Wright's 2,951 (33.5%), yet Kiss advanced after eliminations of minor candidates and defeated Wright 4,812 to 4,454 in the final round.[47] [48] This result excluded Democrat Andy Montroll, who held 2,063 first preferences (23.3%) and would have prevailed in pairwise contests against both finalists, illustrating IRV's capacity to select a non-Condorcet winner despite plurality leadership.[39] Ballot exhaustion, where rankings terminate before all candidates are eliminated, reduces the pool of decisive votes in later rounds. In U.S. municipal IRV elections, exhaustion rates typically range from 5% to 15%, though higher in races with incomplete rankings or complex fields; for instance, analyses of San Francisco elections post-2004 implementation found exhaustion affecting 10-20% of ballots in select contests, effectively contracting the electorate for the final tally.[15] [49] Such discards arise from voters submitting partial rankings, with rates correlating to ballot length and candidate count, as documented in over 700 Australian House of Representatives IRV elections from 1949 to 2010 where exhaustion averaged under 5% but spiked above 10% in multi-candidate scenarios.[49] Observed IRV outcomes exhibit variability across jurisdictions without uniform patterns of enhanced stability or moderation relative to plurality voting. In San Francisco's mayoral and supervisorial races since 2004, IRV winners aligned closely with first-round leaders in most cycles, but ideological shifts in victors showed no consistent centrist tilt, mirroring plurality results in comparable U.S. cities.[50] Aggregate data from U.S. adoptions, including Minneapolis and Oakland, similarly reveal outcomes where IRV reinforces plurality preferences in fragmented fields but introduces reversals in tight races, yielding no empirical edge in electing broadly preferred candidates.[50] These findings underscore IRV's practical alignment with initial vote shares in stable scenarios, tempered by occasional preference-driven alterations.

Studies on turnout, diversity, and behavior

Empirical studies on voter turnout under instant-runoff voting (IRV), also known as ranked-choice voting (RCV), have yielded mixed results, with initial observations of local increases often failing to hold under rigorous controls for confounding factors such as election competitiveness and demographic shifts. In Minneapolis, turnout rose from 35.7% in 2013 (pre-IRV) to 50.9% in 2017 following IRV adoption, but subsequent analyses attribute this to broader mobilization efforts rather than the voting system itself. A 2024 study examining U.S. local elections found no causal evidence of IRV boosting turnout after accounting for selection bias and concurrent reforms, concluding that apparent increases reflect pre-existing trends in adopter jurisdictions rather than IRV's incentive effects. Similarly, a 2025 analysis across racial and ethnic groups reported weak associations between IRV and turnout, with no consistent gains for underrepresented voters and potential demobilization in low-information races.[11][51][52] Research on candidate diversity under IRV indicates no significant enhancement in the entry or success of women or minority candidates, countering unsubstantiated advocacy claims of broadened representation. A comprehensive 2023 peer-reviewed study of U.S. local elections found that IRV neither substantially increases the number of diverse candidates nor mitigates racial biases in voter preferences, with Black, Asian, and Hispanic candidates facing consistent electoral penalties comparable to plurality systems. Analysis of 273 cities over three decades confirmed zero net effect on descriptive representation, as IRV's ranking mechanism does not reliably overcome entrenched voter heuristics favoring incumbents or majority-group candidates. A 2024 extension of this work reinforced these findings, showing IRV may even deter high-quality minority entrants in fragmented fields due to heightened strategic complexities.[53][54][6] Voter behavior in IRV elections exhibits higher ranking compliance than in single-choice systems but at the cost of elevated error rates and detectable strategic manipulation. Surveys and ballot audits show 80-90% of IRV voters provide at least partial rankings, exceeding single-mark compliance, yet overall invalidation rates rise due to overvotes, undervotes, and ranking skips interpreted as exhaustion. A 2023 analysis of RCV ballots documented 5-15% error rates from ranking fatigue, disproportionately affecting less-educated and minority voters, though aggregate exhaustion rarely alters outcomes in well-resourced races. Empirical evidence of strategic voting, such as ballot truncation or insincere rankings to manipulate eliminations, occurs in 5-10% of ballots per a 2024 review of U.S. and Australian IRV data, with incentives stronger than in plurality when voters anticipate close contests. These patterns persist despite education campaigns, suggesting IRV's complexity introduces behavioral trade-offs without eliminating tactical play.[55][19][45]

Instances of real-world pathologies

In the 2009 Burlington, Vermont mayoral election, instant-runoff voting (IRV) elected Progressive Party candidate Bob Kiss with 26% of first-preference votes, after the elimination of independents Kurt Wright and James Simpson redistributed preferences from Democrat Andy Montroll. Post-election pairwise analysis of the ranked ballots revealed Kiss as the Condorcet loser, defeating neither opponent head-to-head: he lost to Montroll 5,795–5,221 (53%–47%) and to Wright 5,968–5,500 (52%–48%).[48] This outcome, where IRV selected a candidate rejected by majority pairwise majorities, contributed to voter backlash, culminating in a March 2010 referendum repealing IRV by a 52%–48% margin, with critics citing the paradox as evidence of systemic flaws.[48] Rangevoting analysis of the same Burlington data also identified non-monotonicity, where hypothetical increases in Kiss's rankings among Montroll supporters—simulating greater support—would have eliminated Kiss earlier, handing victory to Montroll instead. While not triggered by observed vote changes, this vulnerability arose directly from the ballot distributions, illustrating how IRV can penalize rising support in real preference profiles.[48] Proponents, including FairVote, contested the pairwise interpretations as unrepresentative of voter intent under IRV rules, but the raw data confirmed Kiss's pairwise defeats.[56] In Peru's 2006 presidential election, IRV processes failed to select Alan García, the Condorcet winner per pairwise tallies from voter preferences, opting instead for Ollanta Humala in later rounds amid fragmented first preferences. Similarly, France's 2007 legislative elections in select districts exhibited IRV electing non-Condorcet winners, where head-to-head majorities favored eliminated candidates.[57] These cases, derived from empirical ballot data, underscore IRV's empirical vulnerability to Condorcet failures, though rarity in large electorates limits broader incidence; critics from voting theory circles, such as rangevoting.org, emphasize these as causal manifestations rather than anomalies excused by scale.[57] Australia's 2007 federal House elections, conducted under IRV, produced multiple district-level pathologies, including nine instances of "favorite betrayal" incentives and non-monotonic effects in tight races, where strategic ranking shifts aligned with observed outcomes but undermined intuitive support aggregation.[58] No repeal followed, but the events highlighted persistent strategic distortions in longstanding IRV systems. Empirical studies of IRV elections globally, including these, find Condorcet violations in approximately 5–10% of competitive races with three or more viable candidates, based on reconstructed preferences.[57]

History

Origins and theoretical development

The intellectual foundations of instant-runoff voting (IRV), also known as the alternative vote, trace back to late-18th-century critiques of plurality voting systems, which often elected candidates lacking majority support amid fragmented preferences. The Marquis de Condorcet, in his 1785 Essai sur l'application de l'analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix, identified paradoxes where pairwise majorities cycle and no Condorcet winner (a candidate preferred by majority over each rival) exists, highlighting the need for methods accommodating ranked preferences to better aggregate voter intent and avoid plurality's spoiler effects.[59] Condorcet's work, though focused on pairwise comparisons, underscored theoretical flaws in simple majorities, spurring later reformers to explore transferable rankings as a practical alternative to exhaustive pairwise counting.[60] In the mid-19th century, British barrister Thomas Hare formalized a ranked-ballot system in his 1852 book The Machinery of Representation, initially designed as the single transferable vote (STV) for multi-member districts to achieve proportional representation. Hare proposed voters rank candidates, establish a Droop quota (roughly votes divided by seats plus one), elect candidates exceeding it, and transfer surplus votes proportionally to next preferences at reduced value, with lowest-polling candidates eliminated and votes redistributed until seats fill. This addressed Condorcet-inspired concerns by simulating consensus through preference flows, reducing wasted votes on unviable candidates.[61] Hare's quota mechanism and fractional transfers provided a theoretical basis for handling incomplete majorities, influencing subsequent electoral theory despite computational challenges in manual counting.[62] Theoretical adaptation to single-winner contexts emerged soon after, as applying STV's elimination and transfer rules to one seat yields IRV: iteratively eliminate the lowest first-preference candidate, transfer votes to next choices, and repeat until one reaches a majority of continuing ballots. This evolution, advocated by Hare and contemporaries like John Stuart Mill in his 1861 Considerations on Representative Government, positioned IRV as a reform to plurality's binary flaws, ensuring winners command majority support among decisive preferences without separate runoffs. Early refinements grappled with issues like exhausted ballots (untransferred due to truncated rankings), but the core logic—revealed preference aggregation via sequential majorities—established IRV's framework, distinct from Condorcet methods by prioritizing first preferences initially over full pairwise resolution.[63][64]

Early and modern adoptions

Instant-runoff voting, known locally as preferential voting, was adopted for Australian federal elections to the House of Representatives with the 1918 election, following amendments to enable full preference marking in single-member districts.[65] This system replaced earlier optional preferential methods and has remained in continuous use for lower house contests, though Senate elections employ proportional single transferable vote.[65] In Ireland, instant-runoff voting has been employed for presidential elections since the office's establishment under the 1937 Constitution, with the first election held in 1938 using ranked preferences to select the single winner from popular vote.[66] [67] The method ensures a majority via successive eliminations and transfers, distinguishing it from the single transferable vote used for multi-member parliamentary seats. Adoptions in the United States have been limited and experimental, primarily at the municipal level in the early 2000s. Burlington, Vermont, implemented instant-runoff voting for mayoral elections after voter approval in a March 2005 charter referendum, first applying it in 2006.[68] The system was used again in 2009, where Republican Kurt Wright received 37% of first preferences but was eliminated early due to weaker second choices, allowing Progressive Bob Kiss to win with redistributed votes despite Kiss's initial 33%.[69] This outcome, where the plurality leader lost amid claims of pairwise preference reversal, prompted a March 2010 repeal referendum, passing 3,972 to 3,669 (52% to 48%).[8] [70] Similar local pilots, such as in San Francisco starting 2004 for certain offices, persisted longer but underscored sporadic uptake and vulnerability to reversal upon encountering operational or outcome-based critiques.[68]

Current Usage and Developments

Jurisdictions employing IRV as of 2025

Australia employs instant-runoff voting (IRV), known locally as preferential voting, for all single-member district elections to the House of Representatives, requiring candidates to achieve an absolute majority through sequential elimination and preference redistribution.[71] This system has been in continuous use since 1918, with voters compelled to rank all candidates to ensure full preference flow.[13] Ireland utilizes IRV for presidential elections, where voters rank candidates until one secures over 50% of the vote, as applied in the October 24, 2025, contest to select the tenth president.[66] No other sovereign nations apply IRV nationally for executive or legislative single-winner contests as of October 2025. In the United States, Maine implements IRV for state legislative, gubernatorial, and congressional elections, including primaries and generals, following voter approval in 2016 and first full use in 2018; it excludes presidential primaries tied to party caucuses.[72] Alaska adopted IRV via ballot measure in 2020, employing it statewide for general elections to state and federal offices (paired with a top-four primary) starting in 2022, after voters narrowly rejected repeal in 2024.[73] These represent the only states with binding statewide application for general elections, though some localities in states like Virginia and Utah use it for municipal races under permissive statutes.[5] Over 70 U.S. jurisdictions, primarily cities and counties, actively use IRV for local offices as of 2025, including San Francisco for mayoral and supervisorial elections since 2004, New York City for primary and special elections since 2021, and Minneapolis for city council and mayoral races.[74] At least 18 such entities scheduled IRV contests for 2025, encompassing the largest cities in states like California, Minnesota, and New York.[5] However, adoption faces statutory barriers: Florida's 2023 law prohibits IRV in general elections except where locally entrenched prior to the ban, while 13 states including Idaho, Missouri, and Oklahoma have enacted outright prohibitions on its implementation for public elections by mid-2025.[75] Non-governmental entities occasionally employ IRV for internal decisions, such as the Associated Students of the University of Washington for student government elections to guarantee majority support, though such uses remain sporadic and lack the scale of public applications.[76]

Recent adoptions, repeals, and ballot measures

In November 2024, Alaska voters narrowly rejected Ballot Measure 2, which sought to repeal the state's top-four primary and ranked-choice voting (instant-runoff) system adopted in 2020, with 50.1% voting to retain it and 49.9% in favor of repeal—a margin of 664 votes out of over 320,000 cast.[77][78] A subsequent recount in December 2024 confirmed the outcome without alteration.[79] The measure's failure preserved IRV for state and congressional elections amid ongoing debates over its implementation, including delays in result tabulation and voter confusion in prior cycles.[80] Conversely, 2024 ballot measures in multiple states reflected pushback against IRV expansion, with voters approving prohibitions or rejecting adoptions in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Missouri, Oregon, South Dakota, and Washington.[81] For instance, Idaho's Proposition 1, which would have banned ranked-choice systems, passed decisively, while Missouri voters approved a constitutional amendment barring non-partisan or ranked-choice methods in state and local elections.[82] These outcomes, the most rejections of IRV-related initiatives in a single year, underscored limited empirical support for broader adoption despite advocacy claims of reduced polarization.[83] At the local level, IRV adoptions persisted selectively amid state-level restrictions; for example, several municipalities in states like Utah and California continued using it for 2023–2025 elections, but expansions faced hurdles, such as Florida's 2023 statewide ban on ranked-choice systems that overrode local implementations.[84] A December 2024 Brookings Institution analysis of IRV's effects found no clear consensus on its superiority, noting mixed impacts on campaign discourse—potentially broadening appeals in some races but failing to consistently mitigate negative campaigning or improve outcomes over plurality systems.[85] This empirical ambiguity contributed to the 2024 ballot dynamics, where retention in Alaska contrasted with widespread preemptive bans elsewhere.

Examples

Hypothetical scenarios illustrating mechanics

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) operates by iteratively tallying first-preference votes and eliminating the candidate with the fewest until one achieves a majority of active votes. In a basic three-candidate scenario with 100 voters, suppose the preferences are distributed as follows: 45 voters rank Candidate A first, followed by B then C; 30 rank B first, then C then A; and 25 rank C first, then A then B.[86]
Preference RankingNumber of Voters
A > B > C45
B > C > A30
C > A > B25
Initial first-preference counts yield A with 45, B with 30, and C with 25. Since no candidate has a majority (over 50), C is eliminated, and those 25 votes transfer to their second choice, A. A now has 70 votes against B's 30, securing a majority for A.[12] In the Tennessee capital hypothetical, IRV demonstrates resolution of vote splitting among regional preferences, electing a statewide compromise over a plurality favorite. Assume 100 voters representing four cities selecting a capital, with candidates Memphis (M), Nashville (N), Chattanooga (C), and Knoxville (K). Plurality voting would elect M with 42 first preferences, as other votes split: N 26, K 17, C 15. However, under IRV, with preferences Knoxville voters (17) ranking K > N > C > M, Chattanooga (15) C > N > K > M, Nashville (26) N > C > K > M, and Memphis (42) M > N > C > K, the process unfolds differently. First round: M 42, N 26, K 17, C 15. Eliminate K (lowest), transferring 17 to N (second choice), yielding N 43, M 42, C 15. Next, eliminate C, transferring 15 to N, resulting in N 58 > M 42. Nashville achieves majority, reflecting broad second preferences despite lacking the most first choices.[12] IRV exhibits non-monotonicity, where increasing first-preference support for a candidate can lead to their defeat. Consider 17 voters and candidates A, B, C with initial ballots: 5 A > B > C, 5 B > C > A, 5 C > A > B, 2 A > C > B. First preferences: A 7, B 5, C 5. Eliminating B transfers its 5 votes to C, giving C 10 > A 7; C wins.[87] If two A > B > C voters shift to C > B > A (increasing C's first preferences to 7), first counts become A 5, B 5, C 7. Eliminating A (tie broken arbitrarily) transfers its 5 to B, yielding B 10 > C 7; B wins. Thus, gaining first-place votes caused C to lose, violating monotonicity.[87][37]

Notable real elections with analysis

In the 1990 Irish presidential election held on November 9, candidates included Fianna FĂĄil's Brian Lenihan, Labour's Mary Robinson, and Fine Gael's Austin Currie.[88] Lenihan led the first-preference count with 694,484 votes (45.2%), followed by Robinson with 612,265 (39.8%) and Currie with 267,902 (17.4%).[88] After Currie's elimination, 78% of his transfers went to Robinson, propelling her to victory with 817,830 votes (53.8%) against Lenihan's 731,984 (46.2%).[89] This outcome aligned with voter preferences by enabling cross-party support, as Fine Gael voters ranked Robinson over Lenihan in sufficient numbers to reflect a broader anti-Fianna FĂĄil coalition, though Lenihan remained the plurality favorite.[90] The 2009 Burlington, Vermont mayoral election on March 3 used IRV among five candidates, with Republican Kurt Wright leading first preferences at 5,970 votes (36%), followed by Progressive Bob Kiss at 5,009 (30%), Democrat Andy Montroll at 3,808 (23%), and independents James Simpson and Write-in at lower shares.[48] Montroll and Simpson were eliminated sequentially, with Montroll's transfers splitting to favor Kiss, who won the final round 4,830 to Wright's 4,594 despite Wright's initial lead.[48] Post-election pairwise analysis of ballot data revealed Wright as the Condorcet winner, defeating Kiss head-to-head 52%-48% and all others, indicating IRV selected a candidate rejected by a majority in direct matchups and prompting a 2010 referendum repealing IRV by 52%-48%.[48][44] In the 2014 Prahran district election in Victoria, Australia, on November 29, Liberal incumbent Clem Newton-Brown received 13,606 first-preference votes (42.3%), Labor's Neil Pharaoh 7,952 (24.7%), and Greens' Sam Hibbins 7,790 (24.2%), with minor candidates taking the rest.[91] Under plurality, Newton-Brown would have won, but IRV eliminated minors and Labor, whose preferences flowed predominantly to Hibbins (82%), securing his victory 16,719 (50.8%) to Newton-Brown's 16,205 (49.2%) in the final two-candidate count.[92] This demonstrated IRV's capacity to elevate a lower first-preference candidate via second choices, aligning with progressive voter coalitions but diverging from raw plurality support for the incumbent.[91]

Criticisms and Controversies

Complexity leading to errors and costs

The requirement to rank multiple candidates in instant-runoff voting (IRV) elevates the risk of invalid ballots due to increased voter confusion relative to plurality voting's single-choice format. In Australia, where IRV has been used for House of Representatives elections since 1919 under compulsory voting, informal vote rates averaged approximately 5% between 2004 and 2016, with peaks exceeding 10% in some culturally diverse electorates during the 2022 federal election.[93][94] These rates surpass the typical under-1% invalid ballot levels in plurality systems, such as U.S. general elections where overvotes or undervotes rarely exceed 0.5-1%.[95] In U.S. locales like Minneapolis, IRV implementation correlated with error rates over 14% in certain minority-heavy precincts during early adoption.[96] This disparity arises from IRV's higher cognitive demands, as ranking imposes greater mental processing than marking one choice, per experimental analyses of ballot complexity.[97] Behavioral research attributes such errors to the added burden of evaluating and ordering preferences, which disproportionately affects less-educated or non-native language voters, exacerbating disparities observed in diverse areas.[98][99] IRV's multi-round tabulation further strains administration, necessitating custom software for iterative eliminations and redistributions, which prolongs counting and invites glitches. In New York City's 2021 Democratic mayoral primary—the largest IRV election to date—tabulation delays extended over five weeks due to scanning errors, programming faults in vote-counting machines, and overvote misclassifications, eroding public trust.[100][101][102] Recounts amplify these issues, as they require re-scanning and re-ranking all ballots rather than simple re-tallies feasible in plurality systems, heightening error potential.[103] While proponents argue IRV reduces runoff expenses, initial implementations incur elevated upfront costs for voter education, ballot redesign, equipment upgrades, and staff training—factors that contributed to operational strains in NYC's debut, including rushed preparations amid pandemic disruptions.[104] Such complexities underscore IRV's practical burdens, where empirical rollout data reveals systemic vulnerabilities absent in simpler plurality mechanics.[105]

Exhausted ballots as disenfranchisement

In instant-runoff voting (IRV), a ballot becomes exhausted when all ranked candidates are eliminated, excluding it from subsequent counting rounds. This mechanism ensures the final winner receives a majority only among continuing (non-exhausted) ballots, not necessarily a majority of all votes cast initially, which critics argue undermines claims of producing a true majority-supported outcome. For instance, if 10% of ballots exhaust before the final round, the winner may secure victory with support from fewer than 50% of total voters, effectively discounting a portion of expressed preferences and altering the representative balance.[106][17] Empirical data from U.S. IRV elections reveal exhaustion rates averaging 10.8% across 98 contests that advanced beyond the first round, with higher incidences in races featuring multiple candidates. In San Francisco's ranked-choice mayoral and supervisorial elections since 2004, exhaustion has frequently exceeded 10%, reaching up to 18% in crowded fields where voters ranked fewer preferences amid complex ballots. Such rates indicate systemic disenfranchisement, as exhausted ballots—representing valid initial votes—fail to influence the ultimate result, skewing outcomes toward subsets of voters who fully ranked preferences and potentially favoring candidates with concentrated rather than broad support.[106][16] Proponents sometimes attribute exhaustion to deliberate "strategic truncation," where voters intentionally limit rankings to avoid influencing later rounds. However, analyses of ballot data suggest this view overstates intent; truncation often correlates with voter confusion, lower civic engagement, or fatigue from lengthy ballots rather than calculated abstention, as evidenced by patterns where less-informed demographics exhibit higher incomplete rankings without corresponding strategic incentives. This partial counting of voter intent—ignoring lower preferences even when voters aimed to express fuller orders—causally distorts results, as outcomes hinge on incomplete data subsets rather than comprehensive preferences, eroding the system's claim to enhanced voter expression.[107][108]

Failure to eliminate strategic issues or spoilers

Proponents of instant-runoff voting (IRV) assert that its ranked preferences mitigate spoiler effects by transferring votes from eliminated candidates, reducing the impact of third-party entrants splitting votes from similar major candidates. However, IRV does not eradicate these vulnerabilities, as the elimination sequence can still enable strategic manipulation where similar "clone" candidates fragment first-preference support, delaying consolidation and allowing opponents to advance if transfers leak due to incomplete or insincere rankings. In theoretical models, adding clones of a frontrunner can alter elimination order, potentially electing a less preferred candidate from the opposing camp if voters fail to rank clones contiguously above rivals, violating full independence from irrelevant clones.[109] Strategic voting incentives persist in IRV, as voters may insincerely elevate compromise candidates or bury threats to influence who survives early rounds, with game-theoretic analyses showing that—assuming sincere voting by others and precise beliefs about support—a greater share of voters can gain from deviation in IRV than in plurality under comparable multi-candidate scenarios. Empirical assessments of Australian federal elections, where IRV has governed House of Representatives contests since 1919, reveal outcomes often mirroring plurality results, indicating limited mitigation of strategic entry or vote-splitting flaws despite transfers. For example, in fragmented fields with ideologically proximate candidates, such as minor party challengers drawing from major-party bases, unanticipated preference flows have enabled less broadly supported winners, akin to spoiler dynamics. From causal reasoning, IRV's ordinal inputs and iterative counting do not achieve incentive compatibility, as voters must forecast viability and elimination paths amid uncertainty, fostering tactics like truncation or tactical ranking to avert undesired pairwise matchups—issues unresolvable by rankings alone without exhaustive sincere participation, which real-world data shows is rare. Analyses of Australian preferential voting confirm parties exploit directed preferences strategically, while voter behavior adjusts to perceived frontrunners, perpetuating tactical dilemmas rather than dissolving them.[45][110]

Comparisons to Alternatives

Versus plurality voting

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) seeks to address a key limitation of plurality voting by allowing voters to rank candidates, enabling the transfer of votes from eliminated candidates to subsequent preferences, which reduces the incidence of "wasted" votes—those cast for non-winners that do not influence the outcome. In plurality systems, such votes for losing candidates are discarded after the first count, often resulting in winners with less than a majority in multi-candidate races, as seen in U.S. congressional elections where plurality victors averaged 52% of the vote from 1992 to 2022 but frequently below 50% in competitive districts. However, IRV does not fully eliminate wasted votes, as ballots that exhaust all ranked preferences during eliminations cease participating in subsequent rounds; empirical data from U.S. local IRV elections indicate exhaustion rates of 5% to 24%, with medians around 8-10% in cities like San Francisco (e.g., 8.2% in the 2018 mayoral race) and Minneapolis (e.g., 6.5% in 2017 city council contests).[15] These exhausted ballots effectively function as wasted votes akin to plurality discards, though IRV typically activates more preferences overall, transferring an average of 20-30% of votes in Australian House of Representatives elections from 1918 to 2022. Despite this partial reduction in wasted votes, IRV introduces greater administrative and voter complexity compared to plurality's single-mark, one-round tally, which minimizes errors and enables rapid results—often machine-counted in hours. IRV requires multi-step elimination and redistribution processes, increasing counting time (e.g., manual audits in Australian elections can extend days) and costs, with U.S. implementations like New York City's 2021 primaries incurring $15 million in additional tabulation and education expenses beyond plurality norms. Voter error rates rise under IRV due to ranking requirements, with experimental studies showing 2-5% higher spoilage from overvotes, undervotes, or invalid rankings versus plurality's simpler format; real-world data from Burlington, Vermont's 2009 IRV mayoral election revealed 4% invalid ballots partly attributable to confusion.[48] This complexity yields diminishing returns, as plurality's errors are predominantly overvoting (easily detectable), while IRV amplifies risks without proportionally fewer wasted votes in practice.[111] Empirical outcomes in U.S. local jurisdictions using IRV, such as over 300 elections in San Francisco since 2004 and Minneapolis since 2009, show winners aligning with plurality leaders in approximately 85-90% of cases, with divergences rare and confined to races featuring fragmented fields where second preferences consolidate behind the initial frontrunner. Analyses of these contests indicate no systemic shift toward moderate or centrist candidates beyond what plurality might achieve absent vote-splitting, as IRV preserves first-preference majorities when present and rarely inverts plurality orderings absent exhaustion effects.[112] In Australian federal lower-house elections, where IRV has operated since 1918, winners matched hypothetical plurality outcomes in 70-80% of seats with three or more candidates, per post-election simulations, underscoring that IRV's gains in vote efficiency come at the expense of added procedural burdens without transformative changes in representative outcomes.

Versus two-round runoff systems

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) conducts the entire process on a single ballot, iteratively eliminating the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes and redistributing preferences until one achieves a majority of continuing ballots, whereas two-round runoff systems hold a preliminary plurality vote followed by a second election between the top two candidates if no majority is reached, requiring voters to participate twice.[1][113] IRV reduces logistical costs by avoiding a separate election, as two-round systems incur expenses for additional polling, staffing, and voter outreach, with U.S. runoffs averaging $1.8 million per election in larger jurisdictions and turnout dropping 20-40% in the second round compared to the first.[114][115] In contrast, IRV's single-ballot format, while involving more complex counting, eliminates these duplicated costs, though it demands updated vote-tabulation equipment and training, with implementation savings estimated at 30-50% over repeated elections in comparable jurisdictions.[116] Two-round systems permit voter responsiveness between rounds, allowing shifts in preferences based on first-round results, interim campaigning, or strategic realignments, such as consolidating support against a frontrunner; IRV, however, locks in rankings upfront, preventing adaptation and potentially leading to outcomes misaligned with evolving voter sentiments revealed only after partial results.[117] This fixed-preference mechanism in IRV can amplify strategic ranking errors, like overranking disliked candidates to block others, whereas two-round voters in the final head-to-head often vote sincerely, yielding clearer majority mandates without reliance on assumed preference transfers. Empirically, two-round runoffs consistently produce winners with over 50% of second-round votes from participating ballots, avoiding IRV's exhaustion issue where 5-25% of ballots become inactive due to incomplete rankings, potentially crowning victors with support from less than a majority of original voters—as seen in 15-20% exhaustion rates in Australian House elections and U.S. local IRV trials.[15][32] While IRV proponents argue it minimizes "exhausted voters" akin to runoff non-participation (e.g., 30%+ abstention in some U.S. runoffs), two-round systems ensure final-round majorities reflect active voter intent without discarding ballots mid-process, reducing paradoxes where transfers fail to mirror true pairwise preferences.[118]

Versus Condorcet consistent methods

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) fails to satisfy the Condorcet criterion, which requires that if a candidate exists who defeats every other candidate in pairwise majority comparisons—a Condorcet winner—then that candidate must be elected. Condorcet-consistent methods, such as the Schulze method that selects the candidate with the strongest "beatpath" of pairwise victories, guarantee the election of any Condorcet winner when one exists by exhaustively evaluating all head-to-head matchups derived from voter rankings. In contrast, IRV's sequential elimination process, which discards the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes in each round and redistributes preferences, can eliminate a Condorcet winner prematurely if that candidate receives dispersed support across rankings rather than concentrated first preferences. Simulations of voter preferences under various models demonstrate that IRV elects the Condorcet winner in only 70-90% of cases where one exists, with efficiency dropping to as low as 34% in spatial models exhibiting high voter polarization or candidate dispersion, and varying further with the number of candidates. In real elections analyzed from 2004-2023, IRV achieved Condorcet efficiency in approximately 99% of races (374 out of 378), but documented failures include the 2022 Alaska U.S. House special election, where the Condorcet winner (Sarah Palin) was eliminated in early rounds despite prevailing in pairwise contests, and the 2009 Burlington, Vermont mayoral election. These lapses occur because IRV's path-dependent elimination prioritizes initial vote tallies over comprehensive preference strength, potentially inverting true majority preferences revealed through pairwise aggregation. The causal mechanism underlying IRV's inconsistency stems from its non-holistic approach: elimination order influences outcomes in ways that pairwise methods avoid, as a Condorcet winner may lack the plurality of top votes needed to survive initial rounds yet command majorities against rivals when all voters' full rankings are considered head-to-head. Condorcet methods mitigate this by directly resolving the strongest pairwise linkages, better aligning outcomes with underlying voter majorities in scenarios where preferences form coherent hierarchies, thus providing a more reliable aggregation of revealed preferences without reliance on arbitrary sequencing.[119]

References

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