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  Paul: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Booker: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Kentucky |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Rand Paul won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Charles Booker with 61.8% of the vote.
Paul was first elected in 2010 with 55.7% of the vote, filling the seat of retiring Jim Bunning, then re-elected in 2016 with 57.3% of the vote. Paul ran for a third term.[1] Booker is a former state representative and a candidate in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in 2020. The election was called for Paul shortly after polls closed in the state.[2]
This was the biggest landslide victory for a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky since Mitch McConnell's win in 2002.
Although Rand Paul supports a Constitutional amendment limiting Senators to two terms, he said, "I'm not in favor of term limits for some and not others. So I'm not in favor of people self-imposing term limits. I'm a co-sponsor of the constitutional amendment, but I will run again in 2022."[1] Kentucky held its primary election on May 17.[3]
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rand Paul (incumbent) | 333,051 | 86.35% | |
| Republican | Valerie Frederick | 14,018 | 3.63% | |
| Republican | Paul V. Hamilton | 13,473 | 3.49% | |
| Republican | Arnold Blankenship | 10,092 | 2.62% | |
| Republican | Tami Stanfield | 9,526 | 2.47% | |
| Republican | John Schiess | 5,538 | 1.44% | |
| Total votes | 385,698 | 100.0% | ||
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Charles Booker | 214,245 | 73.29% | |
| Democratic | Joshua Blanton Sr. | 30,980 | 10.60% | |
| Democratic | John Merrill | 28,931 | 9.90% | |
| Democratic | Ruth Gao | 18,154 | 6.21% | |
| Total votes | 292,310 | 100.0% | ||
Although Paul had initially pledged to serve only one term,[33] he later reversed this stance and ran for re-election.[34] In both 2010 and 2016, he faced tight races, even as these years were generally unfavorable for the Democratic Party and Kentucky's conservative partisan lean. Paul had gained a reputation as one of the most libertarian senators and often breaks with his party despite still holding conservative views on most issues.[35][36]
Following a narrow primary defeat to Amy McGrath in the 2020 Kentucky Senate Democratic primaries, State Representative Charles Booker announced his intention to run again, this time against Paul.[37] Booker positioned himself as a progressive populist, advocating for abortion rights, Universal Basic Income, Medicare for All, and a Green New Deal.[38] He aimed to resonate with traditional Democratic voters in the urban centers of Louisville and Lexington, while also reaching out to ancestral Democrats in Kentucky's Appalachian region.[39]
An early February poll showed Paul leading by only a few points against a generic Democrat.[40] However, a later poll revealed Paul had a substantial lead over Booker.[41] In October, a debate was scheduled to include both Paul and Booker, but Paul did not respond to the invitation, resulting in Booker debating alone.[42]
Paul went on to easily win re-election, improving his 2016 performance by approximately 9 percentage points. However, due to lower voter turnout, he underperformed compared to Trump's 2020 performance in the state by 2 points and received a slightly smaller percentage of the vote.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[43] | Solid R | November 19, 2021 |
| Inside Elections[44] | Solid R | January 7, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Safe R | November 3, 2021 |
| Politico[46] | Solid R | October 18, 2022 |
| RCP[47] | Safe R | January 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[48] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[49] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[50] | Solid R | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[51] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Rand Paul (R) |
Charles Booker (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[67] | January 19–22, 2022 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 39% | 6% |
Rand Paul vs. generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Rand Paul (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[68] | February 1–4, 2021 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rand Paul (incumbent) | 913,326 | 61.80% | +4.53% | |
| Democratic | Charles Booker | 564,311 | 38.19% | −4.54% | |
| Write-in | 193 | 0.01% | +0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 1,477,830 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Paul won five of six congressional districts.[70]
| District | Paul | Booker | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 71% | 29% | James Comer |
| 2nd | 68% | 32% | Brett Guthrie |
| 3rd | 40% | 60% | John Yarmuth (117th Congress) |
| Morgan McGarvey (118th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 66% | 34% | Thomas Massie |
| 5th | 75% | 25% | Hal Rogers |
| 6th | 54% | 46% | Andy Barr |
Mr. McConnell said he backed Mr. Paul's re-election bid this year.
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