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| Turnout | 47.94%  [1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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   Kelly: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Schmidt: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Pyle: 60–70% >90% Tie: 30–40% 40–50% 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Kansas |
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The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022.[2] Governor Laura Kelly won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt in the general election by a margin of roughly 2.2 percentage points. This was the only statewide victory in 2022 for Democrats in Kansas.
This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2022 in a state Donald Trump won in the 2020 presidential election, and the race was expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the nation. Some analysts and Kansas Republican Party officials had also predicted that Dennis Pyle, who was on the ballot as an independent, would have a spoiler effect benefiting Kelly.[3][4] This was the first gubernatorial election in Kansas since 1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president.[5]
State officials
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |
|
270,968 | 93.84 | |
| Democratic |
|
17,802 | 6.16 | |
| Total votes | 288,770 | 100 | ||
U.S. executive branch officials
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U.S. representatives
U.S. senators
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |
|
373,524 | 80.60 | |
| Republican |
|
89,898 | 19.40 | |
| Total votes | 463,422 | 100.00 | ||
Reporters noted the lack of attention towards abortion as an issue in the campaign by both major candidates, despite the defeat of an abortion amendment in August which was widely seen as a prominent victory for the pro-choice movement.[38][39] In televised debates, Schmidt said that he respected the referendum results and accused Kelly of opposing existing abortion restrictions. Kelly denied the accusation, saying that she had stayed consistent on the subject, and further adding that she believed in "bodily autonomy" for women.[40] When pressed on whether they would support retaining all justices in the state Supreme Court who ruled abortion as a fundamental constitutional right in 2019 and were up on the ballot, Kelly said that she would, while Schmidt said he would vote to retain some and not others.[41]
Instead, both candidates focused more on "kitchen-table" issues such as the economy and education,[39] where polls showed that the former of which was the most important concern among voters.[38][42] Kelly's campaign tied Schmidt with former governor Sam Brownback and his Kansas experiment, highlighting Schmidt's defense of lawsuits regarding budget cuts to public education as the attorney general.[43] In the contrary, Schmidt's campaign tied Kelly with President Joe Biden by focusing on national issues such as the increase in inflation and gas prices, portraying them as "big-spending liberals".[41] Other issues include criminal justice[44][45] and transgender people in sports.[46][47]
Aside from state Supreme Court justice retention elections and other statewide elections, the election was also held on the same ballot as two referendums for proposed constitutional amendments. Question 1 would authorize the state legislature to veto any rules and regulations implemented by Kansas's executive branch with a simple majority.[48] The proposal was spearheaded by Schmidt in 2021 in response to Governor Kelly's pandemic-related measures to close schools temporarily and he made COVID-19 lockdowns and mandates as a focal point in his platform.[49] Kelly's campaign countered that the amendment would be a "power grab" that could create further gridlock in the state's legislative process.[50][51] Question 2 would require most sheriffs to be elected directly by voters and that they could only be removed by a recall election or a challenge by the state attorney general.[52] In a press release, Schmidt said that he would campaign for the amendment, arguing that electing sheriffs would make them "uniquely accountable to the people".[53] Critics pointed out that the amendment could create abuse of power as the authority to investigate the sheriff would be stripped from district attorneys in every county and the attorney general could "play favorites" into which sheriff to investigate.[49] In the end, Question 1 failed narrowly by a one-point margin, while Question 2 passed with 62% of the vote.[54]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[55] | Tossup | July 26, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[56] | Tossup | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[57] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2022 |
| Politico[58] | Tossup | August 12, 2022 |
| RCP[59] | Tossup | August 3, 2022 |
| Fox News[60] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
| 538[61] | Lean D | September 13, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[62] | Lean D | November 7, 2022 |
Federal officials
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Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Laura Kelly (D) |
Derek Schmidt (R) |
Other [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[77] | August 10 – October 29, 2022 | November 2, 2022 | 48.6% | 43.5% | 7.9% | Kelly +5.1 |
Graphical summary
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Laura Kelly (D) |
Derek Schmidt (R) |
Dennis Pyle (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[78] | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | 5% | 2%[c] | 4% |
| 49% | 44% | 5% | 2%[d] | – | ||||
| Jayhawk Consulting (D)[79][B] | October 10–12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 38% | 37% | 7% | – | 18% |
| Emerson College[80] | September 15–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | 3% | 1%[e] | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[81][C] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 392 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 53% | 41% | – | – | 5% |
| Battleground Connect (R)[82][D] | August 8–10, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 48% | 2% | – | 5% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[83][E] | April 26–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 47% | – | – | 10% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[84][F] | September 13–15, 2021 | 810 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 44% | – | – | 9% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[85] | September 7–9, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | – | – | 16% |
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Location | Link | Republican | Democratic | Libertarian | Independent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee
W Withdrawn |
|||||||||
| Derek Schmidt | Laura Kelly | Seth Cordell | Dennis Pyle | ||||||
| 1[86] | September 7, 2022 | Kansas Chamber of Commerce | – | Olathe | [f] | P | P | N | N |
| 2[88] | September 10, 2022 | WIBW-FM | Greg Akagi | Hutchinson | Youtube | P | P | N | N |
| 3[89] | October 5, 2022 | Kansas City PBS/ Johnson County Bar Association |
Nick Haines | Overland Park | Youtube | P | P | N | N |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |
|
499,849 | 49.54% | +1.53% | |
| Republican |
|
477,591 | 47.33% | +4.35% | |
| Independent |
|
20,452 | 2.03% | N/A | |
| Libertarian |
|
11,106 | 1.10% | −0.80% | |
| Total votes | 1,008,998 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | 47.94% | ||||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Kelly won two of four congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[94]
| District | Kelly | Schmidt | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 44% | 52% | Tracey Mann |
| 2nd | 49% | 48% | Jake LaTurner |
| 3rd | 57% | 40% | Sharice Davids |
| 4th | 46% | 51% | Ron Estes |
Laura Kelly won the election by a margin of 2.2 percentage points over Derek Schmidt, similar to the percentage of votes that independent Dennis Pyle received. Kansas Republican Party Chair Mike Kuckelman pointed to this as evidence that Pyle was somewhat responsible for Schmidt's defeat. However, Pyle insisted that "Kansas needed a strong conservative candidate" and instead highlighted Schmidt's underperformance compared to other Republican candidates in Kansas.[4] This was the first election since 2002 where the winner of the United States Senate election in Kansas was of a different party from the winner of the concurrent gubernatorial election.
Kelly's personal popularity was also a factor in her victory, where a majority of voters approved of Kelly's job performance, while only a third did so for President Joe Biden.[95][96] Her win was also propelled by Democratic candidates' increased strength in suburban areas, such as Johnson County, in spite of Schmidt's increased vote share from 2018 in the Republican strongholds of rural Kansas.[97] Kelly also won Sedgwick County, home of Wichita, by 2.9%,[98] receiving 1.8% more of the vote than in the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election.[99] According to a survey conducted by NORC and published by Fox News, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Schmidt's defeat.[100]
According to Fox News's voter analysis of the 2022 race,[101] Kelly won women voters (51% Kelly, 45% Schmidt), voters 18–29 (51% Kelly, 43% Schmidt), millennials (55%, 39%), Gen X (50%, 47%), college-educated voters (57%, 40%), and Latino/Hispanic voters (58%).
Kelly lost voters who were concerned about inflation by four points (46%). She lost voters who listed groceries and food as their most important inflation concern by one point.[102][103] 69% of voters listed abortion as an important factor in their vote, and Kelly won this group by 24 points (60%, 36%), closely mirroring the results of the 2022 Kansas abortion referendum. She won voters who listed "the future of democracy in this country" as an important factor in their vote (88% of voters) by seven points (52%).[101]
Partisan clients
With Marshall's endorsement, Schmidt now is backed by nearly all GOP leaders in Kansas. The only exception is U.S. Sen. Jerry Moran, who has a policy of not endorsing candidates in primaries.
Official campaign websites
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