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European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data.[1]

Key Information

History

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  members as of 2015
  co-operation agreement

ECMWF was established in 1975, in recognition of the need to pool the scientific and technical resources of Europe's meteorological services and institutions for the production of weather forecasts for medium-range timescales (up to approximately two weeks) and of the economic and social benefits expected from it. The Centre employs about 350 staff, mostly appointed from across the member states and co-operating states.[1]

An aerial photograph of the ECMWF building in Bologna, surrounded by roads and residential buildings.
Aerial view of the data centre in Bologna, Italy.

In 2017, the centre's member states accepted an offer from the Italian Government to move ECMWF's data centre to Bologna, Italy. The new site, a former tobacco factory, would be redesigned by the architecture firm gmp.[2]

During 2020, the Centre arranged to move its Copernicus operations away from Reading and into European Union territory.[3] Following bids from Toulouse,[3] Italy,[4] Austria,[5] Germany,[6] Spain[7] and Ireland,[8] eventually Bonn (Germany) was chosen.[9] The move has been directly attributed to Brexit.[9][10]

In early 2024, it was announced that the ECMWF's headquarters, currently at Shinfield Road in the English town of Reading, would be relocated to a new complex to be constructed on the Whiteknights Park campus of the University of Reading. Construction of this complex started in early 2025, with completion expected in early 2027.[11][12]

Objectives

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ECMWF aims to provide accurate medium-range global weather forecasts out to 15 days and seasonal forecasts out to 12 months.[13] Its products are provided to the national weather services of its member states and co-operating states as a complement to their national short-range and climatological activities, and those national states use ECMWF's products for their own national duties, in particular to give early warning of potentially damaging severe weather.

ECMWF's core mission is to:[14]

  • Produce numerical weather forecasts and monitor planetary systems that influence weather
  • Carry out scientific and technical research to improve forecast skill
  • Maintain an archive of meteorological data

To deliver this core mission, the Centre provides:

  • Twice-daily global numerical weather forecasts
  • Air quality analysis
  • Atmospheric composition monitoring
  • Climate monitoring
  • Ocean circulation analysis
  • Hydrological prediction

The Centre develops and operates global atmospheric models and data assimilation systems for the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Earth's atmosphere and for interacting parts of the Earth-system. It uses numerical weather prediction methods to prepare forecasts and their initial conditions, and it contributes to monitoring the relevant parts of the Earth system.

Copernicus

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The centre currently serves as the Entrusted Entity responsible for delivery of two of the Services of the EU's Copernicus Programme. The two services are the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)[15] and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).[16]

The Centre arranged to move its Copernicus operations away from Reading and into Bonn (Germany) in 2020.[3][9] The move has been directly attributed to Brexit.[9][10]

Work and projects

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Forecasting

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Numerical weather prediction (NWP) requires input of meteorological data, collected by satellites and earth observation systems such as automatic and crewed weather stations, aircraft (including commercial flights[17]), ships and weather balloons. Assimilation of this data is used to produce an initial state of a computer model of the atmosphere, from which an atmospheric model is used to forecast the weather. These forecasts are typically:

  • medium-range forecasts, predicting the weather up to 15 days ahead
  • monthly forecasts, predicting the weather on a weekly basis 30 days ahead
  • seasonal forecasts up to 12 months ahead.

Over the past three decades ECMWF's wide-ranging programme of research has played a major role in developing such assimilation and modelling systems. This improves the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasting by about a day per decade, so that a seven-day forecast now (2015) is as accurate as a three-day forecast was four decades ago (1975).[18]

Monthly and seasonal forecasts

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ECMWF's monthly and seasonal forecasts provide early predictions of events such as heat waves, cold spells and droughts, as well as their impacts on sectors such as agriculture, energy and health. Since ECMWF runs a wave model, there are also predictions of coastal waves and storm surges in European waters which can be used to provide warnings.

Early warning of severe weather events

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Forecasts of severe weather events allow appropriate mitigating action to be taken and contingency plans to be put into place by the authorities and the public. The increased time gained by issuing accurate warnings can save lives, for instance by evacuating people from a storm surge area. Authorities and businesses can plan to maintain services around threats such as high winds, floods or snow.

In October 2012 the ECMWF model suggested seven days in advance that Hurricane Sandy was likely to make landfall on the East Coast of the United States.[19] It also predicted the intensity and track of the November 2012 nor'easter, which impacted the east coast a week after Sandy.[20]

ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was developed as a tool to identify where the EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) forecast distribution differs substantially from that of the model climate[clarification needed]. It contains information regarding variability of weather parameters, in location and time and can highlight an abnormality of a weather situation without having to define specific space- and time-dependent thresholds.

Satellite data

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ECMWF, through its partnerships with EUMETSAT, ESA, the EU and others, exploits satellite data for operational numerical weather prediction and operational seasonal forecasting with coupled atmosphere–ocean–land models. The increasing amount of satellite data and the development of more sophisticated ways of extracting information from that data have made a major contribution to improving the accuracy and utility of NWP forecasts.[21]

Reanalysis

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Main article: ECMWF re-analysis

ECMWF supports research on climate variability using an approach known as reanalysis. This involves feeding weather observations collected over decades into a NWP system to recreate past atmospheric, sea- and land-surface conditions over specific time periods to obtain a clearer picture of how the climate has changed. Reanalysis provides a four-dimensional picture of the atmosphere and effectively allows monitoring of the variability and change of global climate, thereby contributing also to the understanding and attribution of climate change.

To date, and with support from Europe's National Meteorological Services and the European Commission, ECMWF has conducted several major reanalyses of the global atmosphere: the first ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) project generated reanalyses from December 1978 to February 1994; the ERA-40 project generated reanalyses from September 1957 to August 2002. The ERA-Interim reanalysis[22] covered the period from 1979 onwards. A reanalysis product (ERA5)[23] with higher spatial resolution (31 km) was released by ECMWF in 2019 as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.[24]

Operational forecast model

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Main article: Integrated Forecast System

ECMWF's operational forecasts are produced from its "Integrated Forecast System" (sometimes informally known in the United States as the "European model") which is run every twelve hours and forecasts out to ten days.

It includes both a "deterministic forecast" mode and an ensemble. The deterministic forecast is a single model run that is relatively high in resolution as well as in computational expense. The ensemble is relatively low (about half that of the deterministic) in resolution (and in computational expense), so less accurate. But it is run 51 times in parallel, from slightly different initial conditions to give a spread of likelihood over the range of the forecast.[25]

As of 2021, the ECMWF's weather model is generally considered to be the most accurate weather forecasting model.[26]

Member and co-operating states

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ECMWF comprises 23 European countries:

It also has co-operation agreements with other states: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Georgia, Hungary, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Morocco, Romania and Slovakia.

Member state[32] Year of joining
Austria 1975
Belgium 1975
Croatia 2011
Denmark 1975
Estonia 2020
Finland 1975
France 1975
Germany 1975
Greece 1976
Iceland 2011
Ireland 1975
Italy 1977
Luxembourg 2002
Netherlands 1975
Norway 1989
Portugal 1976
Serbia 2014
Slovenia 2011
Spain 1975
Sweden 1975
 Switzerland 1975
Turkey 1976
United Kingdom 1975
Co-operating State[33] Year of joining
Bulgaria 12 July 2010
Czech Republic 1 August 2001
Georgia 1 December 2021
Hungary 1 July 1994
Israel 28 October 2010
Latvia 30 April 2008
Lithuania 20 November 2006
Montenegro 5 November 2007
Morocco 1 December 2006
North Macedonia 9 February 2011
Romania 22 December 2003
Slovakia 1 January 2008
Co-operating agreements[34] Year of joining
WMO 1 November 1975
EUMETSAT 18 May 1988
ACMAD 11 May 1995
ALADIN/HIRLAM - Use of IFS/Arpege 19 February 1999
JRC 6 May 2003
CTBTO 24 June 2003
CLRTAP 26 January 2005
ESA 31 May 2005
Memorandum of Understanding for Joint Liaison Office with European institutions in Brussels 23 April 2010
RIMES 8 February 2012
CMA 21 January 2014
US NWS 23 January 2015 - amended 30 January 2018
US NCAR 31 August 2016
INPE Brazil 31 August 2017

See also

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References

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Further reading

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[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

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from Grokipedia
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 23 Member States and 12 Co-operating States, functioning as both a and a 24/7 operational service dedicated to producing and disseminating global numerical weather predictions. Established in 1975 through a convention ratified by initial European nations to pool meteorological resources for advanced forecasting, ECMWF pioneered operational medium-range weather forecasts starting in 1979, initially hosted in Reading, , with additional sites now in , , for Copernicus services and , , for data dissemination. ECMWF generates deterministic and ensemble forecasts four times daily, extending from medium-range (up to 10 days) to seasonal outlooks up to a year ahead, leveraging sophisticated techniques, Earth system modeling, and one of Europe's most powerful supercomputing facilities to achieve high forecast skill. It maintains the world's largest meteorological data archive and operates key components of the European Union's , including the Atmosphere Monitoring Service for air quality and trace gases, the Service for reanalysis and projections, and contributions to . These efforts support national meteorological services, , energy sectors, and disaster preparedness across its supported states. Among its defining achievements, ECMWF introduced the first operational ensemble prediction system in 1992 to quantify forecast uncertainty, significantly advancing probabilistic weather prediction globally, and continues to lead in accuracy through ongoing research in predictability, integration, and high-resolution modeling. The organisation's models are benchmarked as outperforming many national counterparts, underpinning improvements in early warning for events and adaptation strategies. While technical challenges like model biases in near-surface parameters persist and are iteratively addressed through verification studies, ECMWF's emphasis on empirical validation and international collaboration has solidified its role as a cornerstone of European and global .

History

Founding and Early Development

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) originated from a 1967 proposal by the Council of the European Communities for a shared "European Meteorological Computing Centre," driven primarily by political aims to foster international in rather than purely scientific imperatives. This initiative culminated in a project study completed on 5 August 1971, followed by a decision from the in November 1971 to establish the Centre. The first draft of the ECMWF Convention was discussed on 9 and 10 December 1971 by representatives from 14 of the eventual 18 founding Member States. The Convention was signed in 1973 and entered into force on 1 November 1975, formally creating ECMWF as an independent intergovernmental organization headquartered in Reading, , selected for its proximity to the UK Met Office and the . The 18 founding Member States ratified the original Convention, pooling resources to advance medium-range weather forecasting (initially defined as 4-10 days ahead) through collaborative research and operations. Early efforts emphasized cost-benefit justification, with analyses estimating annual economic gains of 200 million units of account from improved forecasts against a 20 million unit setup cost, based on interviews across 15 countries. ECMWF began as an extension of European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) projects, focusing on numerical weather prediction models and data assimilation. Initial operations relied on high-speed data links to national meteorological services, with computing infrastructure evolving into one of Europe's largest dedicated systems. The Centre produced its first real-time medium-range forecast on 15 June 1979, coinciding with the official opening of its Shinfield Park headquarters. Operational production for Member States commenced on 1 August 1979 with 10-day forecasts issued five days per week, expanding to daily seven-day coverage by 1 August 1980; these early outputs demonstrated rapid skill improvements, with 1980s seven-day forecasts outperforming prior five-day accuracy benchmarks.

Key Operational Milestones

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) initiated operational medium-range forecasting on 1 August 1979, delivering ten-day predictions five days per week via an N48 spectral grid model with approximately 200 km horizontal resolution. This marked the transition from experimental real-time forecasts conducted in June 1979 to routine production, enabling Member States to access global outputs for the first time. A pivotal advancement occurred on 24 November 1992, when ECMWF integrated the first ensemble predictions into its operational system, initially running the ensemble prediction system (EPS) three days per week to quantify forecast uncertainty through perturbations in initial conditions and model physics. This probabilistic approach, expanded to daily operations by the mid-1990s, significantly enhanced medium-range reliability by representing the range of possible outcomes rather than deterministic single forecasts. In 1997, ECMWF pioneered the operational implementation of four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) , shifting from optimal interpolation to a method that optimizes the model state over a time window by minimizing discrepancies between observations and short-range forecasts. This upgrade, building on experimental trials from January 1996, improved accuracy and , particularly for atmospheric dynamics, establishing a benchmark for global centers. Subsequent upgrades to the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) included resolution enhancements and coupled modeling; for instance, Cycle 48r1 in June 2023 increased medium-range horizontal resolution to 9 km, unifying configurations across forecast ranges while incorporating advances in physics and methods. More recently, on 25 February 2025, ECMWF operationalized its Forecasting System (AIFS), running parallel to the deterministic IFS to leverage for faster, data-driven predictions without sacrificing skill in core variables. The variant of AIFS followed on 1 July 2025, extending probabilistic capabilities through AI-generated perturbations.

Institutional Expansion and Modern Era

In response to growing computational demands and uncertainties following the United Kingdom's , ECMWF's member states approved amendments to its convention in 2005 and 2010, facilitating the addition of new members and expanding the organization's reach to 23 member states and 12 cooperating states by the . This growth supported enhanced international collaboration in medium-range and , with contributions funding an annual budget primarily derived from state assessments. To address escalating requirements for and , ECMWF pursued infrastructural expansion, culminating in the establishment of a multi-site . In December 2020, the ECMWF Council selected , , for new premises dedicated to Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service operations, with activities commencing in late 2021. Concurrently, in 2017, Italy's proposal to host a new data centre in was accepted, leading to the facility's formal opening on 14 September 2021; this site, refurbished from a former tobacco factory at the Tecnopolo complex, now accommodates advanced supercomputing systems, including installations operational from 2022. The transition to marked a pivotal modern development, with the migration of over 450 petabytes of meteorological archive data completed in 2022, followed by the full shift of operational forecast services from Reading, , on 18 October 2022. This relocation ensured continuity and scalability for ECMWF's activities, integrating cloud infrastructure for services like the and Atmosphere Data Stores. These changes positioned ECMWF as a distributed entity—maintaining headquarters in Reading while leveraging for computing and for specialized monitoring—enhancing resilience and alignment with European environmental programmes such as Copernicus.

Governance and Organization

Member and Co-operating States

The ECMWF is governed and primarily funded by its 23 Member States, which collectively provide the bulk of its financial resources through contributions scaled to their ; these states hold representation in the ECMWF Council, the Centre's principal decision-making body. In 2023, contributions from the 35 total Member and Co-operating States amounted to £62.5 million, underscoring their role as the Centre's principal financiers. Member States also receive enhanced access to ECMWF's computing resources, including supercomputers and permanent data storage in the meteorological archive.
Member States
Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye, United Kingdom
Co-operating States, numbering 12, participate without formal governance roles or scaled financial obligations equivalent to Members; they benefit from access to basic computing facilities, the meteorological archive, and temporary data storage, facilitating collaboration on weather prediction while relying on Member-funded infrastructure.
Co-operating States
Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Georgia, Hungary, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Morocco, North Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia
This tiered structure enables broader international engagement in medium-range forecasting while ensuring operational stability through committed Member State support.

Leadership and Decision-Making Processes

The constitutes the principal governing and decision-making authority of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), composed of two representatives from each , with at least one designated from the respective national meteorological service. It convenes biannually—typically in and December—to deliberate and approve critical elements including the Centre's long-term strategy, annual programme of work, budget, financial regulations, and staff regulations, as stipulated in the ECMWF Convention established on 1 November 1975 and amended on 6 2010. The also holds authority over admissions of new s, ratification of cooperation agreements, appointments of the Director-General and deputy, and major property acquisitions, ensuring alignment with the intergovernmental framework while incorporating input from observers such as the , , and EUMETNET. The Director-General serves as the chief executive officer, appointed by the Council for a renewable term, and is responsible for the operational management, preparation of draft programmes and budgets for Council approval, and reporting on Centre activities. Dr. Florence Rabier has held this position since January 2016, overseeing strategic implementation amid expansions in capabilities and services. Florian Pappenberger, currently Deputy Director-General and Director of Forecasts, has been elected as the next Director-General, effective 1 January 2026. The Council elects its own President and Vice-President annually from among its members, with terms limited to one year and no more than two consecutive re-elections; as of 2024, Penny Endersby of the serves as President, with Dr. Roar Skålin of as Vice-President. Decision-making is supported by a network of advisory committees that furnish specialized recommendations to the Council, including the Scientific Advisory Committee on research and programme drafts, the Finance Committee on budgetary and financial oversight with delegated powers, the Policy Advisory Committee on overarching policies, the Technical Advisory Committee on operational matters, the Advisory Committee of Co-operating States on programme and budget implications for non-members, the Advisory Committee for Data Policy on data dissemination, and the Joint Advisory Group on collaborative initiatives like the European Weather Cloud. These bodies ensure scientifically robust and fiscally prudent resolutions, with the Council retaining final authority on all substantive approvals to maintain consensus among Member States.

Mission and Strategic Objectives

Core Research and Forecasting Mandate

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was established with the primary purpose of developing a capability for medium-range and providing such forecasts to its Member States. This mandate, enshrined in Article 2 of its founding Convention, emphasizes the operation of global numerical models and data-assimilation systems to generate predictions of the Earth's fluid envelope, including the atmosphere, , and land surface components. Forecasts are produced using numerical methods, with initial conditions derived from assimilated observational data, extending typically from a few days to two weeks ahead, though the Centre also supports extended-range predictions up to seasonal timescales. The Centre delivers these outputs four times daily, prioritizing high-resolution ensemble-based predictions to quantify and enhance reliability for national meteorological services. Complementing forecasting, ECMWF's mandate includes continuous scientific and technical research aimed at improving prediction accuracy and extending forecast lead times. This involves advancing (NWP) techniques, such as model physics refinements, ensemble methods, and integration of emerging technologies like , to push the limits of medium-range skill amid challenges like climate variability. efforts focus on monitoring the broader system, including atmospheric composition and dynamics, to inform not only weather but also environmental applications, while ensuring outputs remain complementary to Member States' short-range capabilities. The Centre collects and archives meteorological data to support these activities, making processed results accessible to Members under Council-defined conditions. ECMWF's forecasting mandate extends to collaborative functions, such as providing resources prioritized for NWP-related by Member States and contributing to (WMO) programs. Advanced training for scientific personnel in numerical forecasting techniques is also integral, fostering expertise across . Under its 2025–2034 strategy, the Centre reaffirms this core focus on delivering world-leading medium-range predictions through physical and data-driven innovations, while collaborating within the European Meteorological Infrastructure to address evolving demands like preparedness. These elements collectively position ECMWF as a hub for global-scale, grounded in rigorous model development and validation against observations.

Integration with Broader Environmental Programmes

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) implements the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which form core components of the European Union's flagship programme, Copernicus, aimed at monitoring environmental changes using satellite, in-situ, and model-based data. CAMS, operational since July 2015, delivers global and regional forecasts and analyses of atmospheric composition, including air quality, greenhouse gases, and aerosol levels, leveraging ECMWF's infrastructure to support policy decisions on and forcing. C3S, also managed by ECMWF, provides authoritative climate data sets, including historical reanalyses from 1950 onward, sector-specific indicators, and seasonal-to-decadal predictions, enabling users to assess climate variability and extremes for adaptation strategies. This integration extends ECMWF's medium-range forecasting mandate into long-term environmental monitoring by assimilating diverse observational inputs—such as satellite measurements from Sentinel missions—into coupled models that simulate system interactions, including atmosphere-ocean feedbacks and fluxes. ECMWF contributes to the Copernicus Service (CEMS) through rapid mapping and early warning products, such as the European Awareness (EFAS), which uses predictions to forecast river discharges up to 10 days ahead, aiding across . These services produce open-access data disseminated via standardized interfaces, fostering applications in , , and sectors, with over 10 years of operational delivery by 2025 demonstrating improved accuracy in air quality forecasts and climate projections through iterative model upgrades. Beyond Copernicus, ECMWF supports national collaboration programmes in EU member states to enhance the uptake of environmental data, including tailored training and toolkits for integrating CAMS and C3S outputs into local decision-making processes, such as urban air quality management and assessments. This broader alignment with environmental objectives, funded through delegated implementation agreements since , positions ECMWF as a bridge between operational and policy-relevant , while maintaining its independence as an intergovernmental organization.

Core Operational Activities

Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) specializes in (NWP) for the medium-range timeframe, defined as 3 to 15 days ahead, leveraging its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) to generate global forecasts. The IFS, developed in collaboration with , integrates atmospheric, oceanic, land surface, and sea-ice components into a unified framework for and prediction, solving the governing equations of atmospheric dynamics and physics on a grid. Operational medium-range products include the high-resolution deterministic forecast (HRES), which provides detailed single-member predictions, and the forecast (ENS), comprising 51 perturbed members to quantify uncertainty in weather evolution. These forecasts are produced twice daily, assimilating observational data via a 4D variational method to initialize model states. The IFS employs triangular truncation for horizontal representation, achieving operational resolutions of approximately 9 km for both HRES and ENS in recent cycles, enabling simulation of mesoscale phenomena while maintaining computational efficiency for global domains. Vertical resolution consists of 137 hybrid-sigma-pressure levels extending to 0.01 hPa, capturing tropospheric and stratospheric processes critical for medium-range . Key physical parameterizations include schemes, microphysics, and models refined through ongoing to address biases in and temperature forecasts. The ensemble generation incorporates perturbations in initial conditions and model physics via schemes, providing probabilistic outputs such as probability maps for extreme events. ECMWF's medium-range NWP demonstrates leading global accuracy, with verification statistics showing anomaly correlations for 500 hPa exceeding 60% at 10-day lead times in the , outperforming many national centers due to advanced and model resolution. Continuous evaluation against observations informs upgrades, such as enhancements in cycle 48 (implemented 2023), which improved track forecasts and upper-air predictability. Despite challenges from atmospheric chaos limiting deterministic skill beyond 10 days, ensemble methods extend reliable probabilistic guidance, supporting applications in , energy, and disaster preparedness.

Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasting

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) pioneered operational ensemble prediction systems (EPS) to address inherent uncertainties in , initiating them on 24 November 1992 with low-resolution integrations at T63 spectral truncation and 19 vertical levels, comprising one unperturbed control forecast and 32 perturbed members run to 10 days ahead. This approach sampled forecast probability distributions by introducing perturbations to initial conditions via singular vectors—optimized structures capturing rapidly growing instabilities—and bred-vector methods, alongside stochastic physics perturbations to represent model errors. By quantifying spread around the deterministic forecast, the EPS enabled outputs, such as the likelihood of exceeding thresholds or anomalies, improving decision-making for events like severe storms where single forecasts often underperformed. Evolution of the EPS has focused on enhancing resolution, size, and realism to better resolve uncertainty. The current medium-range EPS employs 50 perturbed members plus a control, at approximately 9 km horizontal resolution (TCo1279) and 137 vertical levels, extending to 15 days with twice-daily runs; perturbations now incorporate an of data assimilations (EDA) since , generating variability from 25 lower-resolution analyses to propagate observational uncertainties. Stochastic parametrizations, refined over decades, perturb subgrid-scale processes like and clouds to mimic structural model deficiencies, yielding more reliable spread-skill relationships where variance correlates with . Probabilistic products derive from statistics, including tercile probabilities for variables like 2 m and mean sea-level , calibrated via techniques such as the for verification against observations, ensuring outcomes align with predicted frequencies. Recent innovations integrate to augment traditional physics-based ensembles, with the Forecasting System (AIFS) ensemble becoming operational on 1 July 2025, offering comparable skill to the physics-driven EPS at reduced computational cost while maintaining probabilistic integrity through diffusion models that generate diverse trajectories. This hybrid approach has demonstrated superior performance in ensemble spread for medium-range variables, reducing biases in and forecasts, as validated against reforecast datasets. The EPS's impact extends to downstream applications, including extreme event warnings, where probabilistic guidance has measurably improved economic value via cost-loss analyses, outperforming deterministic methods by capturing low-probability high-impact scenarios.

Extended-Range and Seasonal Predictions

ECMWF's sub-seasonal-range forecasts, extending up to 46 days ahead, deliver probabilistic assessments of weekly mean anomalies relative to a model , emphasizing potential deviations such as warmer or colder than average conditions. Updated daily at approximately 36 km horizontal resolution, these predictions exploit sources of predictability including slowly evolving sea surface temperatures, , stratospheric circulation, and residual atmospheric memory from initial conditions. The forecasts employ the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) in configuration to quantify , facilitating applications in sectors like and planning where medium-range determinism fades. Complementing these, ECMWF's seasonal forecasts address timescales from one to seven months using the SEAS5 system, operational since 5 November 2017, which generates monthly-updated 51-member ensembles for monthly means and quarterly updates for annual forecasts up to 13 months. SEAS5 couples the IFS atmospheric component (Cycle 43r1 at TCo319 resolution, ~36 km) with the NEMO ocean model (ORCA025 configuration), LIM2 sea-ice prognostic scheme, and land surface interactions, initialized via the ORAS5 ocean and sea-ice reanalysis ensemble. This setup enhances representation of air-sea coupling critical for phenomena like El Niño-Southern Oscillation, with hindcasts spanning 1981–2016 for calibration. SEAS5 demonstrates tangible advances over its predecessor System 4, including a larger ensemble (51 versus 15 members), refined tropical biases (e.g., ~2°C reduction in Niño3.4 RMSE beyond two months), and improved sea-ice edge predictions through interactive modeling. scores, such as anomaly correlations for 2 m , show gains in tropical and select extratropical regions like the North Pacific, though variability persists in areas like the North-West Atlantic due to initialization shifts; overall reliability supports probabilistic outputs for climate-sensitive decisions in water resource management and disaster preparedness. These systems contribute to ECMWF's seamless prediction framework, bridging medium-range with probabilistic long-range guidance.

Data Handling and Analysis

Observational Data Assimilation

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) employs observational data assimilation to integrate diverse measurements into its numerical weather prediction models, producing an optimal estimate of the atmospheric state that minimizes discrepancies between forecasts and observations. This process combines short-range model forecasts—serving as a background—with incoming observations via statistical methods, correcting systematic errors and initializing subsequent predictions. The assimilation cycle operates sequentially every 12 hours, updating the model state to reflect the latest data while accounting for observational errors and model uncertainties. ECMWF's primary technique is four-dimensional variational (4D-Var), which iteratively adjusts initial conditions over a 12- or 24-hour window to fit both observations and model dynamics, incorporating in four dimensions (three spatial plus time). This method outperforms simpler three-dimensional variants by enforcing physical consistency across the assimilation period, enabling better handling of sparse or delayed observations. Complementing 4D-Var, an Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) runs 51 parallel lower-resolution cycles to sample analysis uncertainties, which directly initialize probabilistic ensemble forecasts and quantify error covariances more realistically than static approximations. Observations assimilated span multiple platforms, including approximately 90 satellite instruments processed daily for radiance data, along with in-situ measurements from weather stations, ships, buoys, radiosondes, aircraft reports, and oceanographic profiles such as floats. Satellite data dominate due to global coverage, but rejects outliers based on model consistency and instrument metadata; for instance, hyperspectral sounders provide vertical profiles of and , while imagers contribute and surface parameters. Land surface assimilation separately incorporates from satellites like SMOS and ASCAT, using simplified variants tailored to non-Gaussian error distributions in variables like depth. Ocean components draw from altimetry, , and salinity profiles, though atmospheric assimilation remains the core driver for medium-range forecasting. Recent enhancements include coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice 4D-Var implementations since 2016, reducing initialization shocks, and ongoing experiments with for bias correction in radiances to address instrument degradation. These updates have incrementally improved , with diagnostics revealing that assimilated observations account for about 18% of global error reduction, the remainder stemming from background forecast constraints. Despite advances, challenges persist in assimilating convective-scale and resolving mesoscale features, prompting into hybrid ensemble-variational approaches for future operational upgrades.

Reanalysis and Historical Datasets

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) generates reanalysis datasets by integrating historical observations with advanced models through four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) , yielding consistent estimates of atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface states over decades. These products reconstruct past weather and climate conditions, enabling applications in climate research, model validation, and long-term , while addressing observational gaps via model physics. ERA5, the fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis produced under the Copernicus Service, spans hourly data from 1940 to the present, offering global coverage at approximately 31 km horizontal resolution and 137 vertical levels extending to 80 km altitude. It incorporates diverse observations, including satellite radiances and in-situ measurements, using the Integrated Forecasting System Cycle 41r2 for 1950–present and earlier cycles for pre-1950 periods to handle sparse data. Compared to its predecessor ERA-Interim (1979–August 2019, at 79 km resolution), ERA5 demonstrates reduced biases in variables like and due to enhanced model resolution, improved humidity control, and inclusion of remotely sensed . Complementing ERA5, the ERA5-Land dataset provides a 9 km resolution replay of land-surface components from 1950 onward, driven by ERA5 atmospheric forcing but with uncoupled land modeling to enhance detail in , , and energy fluxes over land. It maintains hourly temporal resolution and includes uncertainty estimates at coarser scales, supporting applications in monitoring and where fine-scale effects matter. Earlier reanalyses, such as ERA-40 (covering 1957–2002), laid foundational methodologies but suffered from coarser resolution (about 125 km) and fewer assimilated observations, limiting their utility for regional studies compared to modern products. ECMWF's datasets are accessible via the Copernicus Climate Data Store, with ongoing updates ensuring near-real-time extensions and quality improvements through bias corrections and expanded observation types. These resources underpin global climate assessments, though users must account for model-dependent uncertainties in underrepresented phenomena like aerosols or sub-grid .

Technological Foundations

Integrated Forecasting System and Model Evolution

The Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) constitutes ECMWF's primary operational framework for , unifying , dynamical modeling, and physical parameterizations within a coupled system representation. At its core, the IFS employs a four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) scheme to estimate the initial atmospheric, oceanic, sea-ice, and land-surface states by minimizing discrepancies between model trajectories and diverse observations, including radiances, radiosondes, and surface measurements. This analysis initializes subsequent forecast integrations using hydrostatic for atmospheric dynamics, solved through transforms and semi-Lagrangian schemes, coupled to , wave, and biogeochemical modules for comprehensive system simulations. The system supports deterministic and ensemble predictions across medium-range (up to 15 days), sub-seasonal (up to 46 days), and seasonal (up to 7 months) horizons, with resolutions varying by application—such as TL1279 (approximately 9 km grid spacing) for high-resolution atmospheric forecasts. Development of the IFS traces back to the , evolving from earlier models into a modular that integrated advanced assimilation and coupled components. A pivotal milestone occurred with IFS cycle 11r7, implemented on 2 March 1994, which represented a comprehensive rewrite of the forecast model, enabling semi-Lagrangian dynamics and paving the way for operational 4D-Var assimilation by the late . Subsequent cycles incrementally refined resolution, physics (e.g., cloud microphysics, schemes, and boundary-layer ), and observation handling, driven by empirical verification against reanalyses and targeted to mitigate biases in phenomena like tropical and stratospheric variability. By the early 2000s, the system incorporated prediction systems (EPS) with perturbations for probabilistic outputs, enhancing reliability in medium-range guidance. Recent upgrades have focused on unifying configurations, elevating computational efficiency, and integrating elements for parameter tuning. Cycle 47r3, deployed on 12 October 2021, enhanced moist physics representations and expanded assimilation of hyperspectral data, yielding measurable gains in and upper-air . Cycle 48r1, introduced on 27 June 2023, standardized medium-range resolutions across deterministic and streams while improving overall model and tropical cyclone track predictions through refined ocean-atmosphere coupling. The latest operational iteration, cycle 49r1 on 12 November 2024, prioritized refinements in boundary-layer processes and modeling, resulting in superior and near-surface forecasts, as validated against independent verification datasets. These evolutions reflect iterative empirical tuning, with each cycle tested via parallel runs against predecessors to ensure stability and improvements exceeding 1-2% in anomaly scores for key variables like 500 hPa .
IFS CycleImplementation DateKey Improvements
47r312 October 2021Enhanced moist physics schemes; improved assimilation of and observations for better and cloud analysis.
48r127 June 2023Unified resolutions in medium-range forecasts; advancements in for aerosols and land-surface states; reduced biases in extended-range predictions.
49r112 November 2024Optimized and temperature profiles; enhanced variational bias correction for data; improved ensemble spread calibration.
Ongoing modernization efforts emphasize a shift toward modular, open-source codebases to facilitate on platforms and integration of hybrid physics-machine learning approaches, addressing limitations in traditional parameterizations for sub-grid processes. Complementing this, ECMWF has operationalized the Forecasting System (AIFS) on 25 February 2025 as a data-driven counterpart, trained on decades of IFS outputs to emulate core dynamics and physics, achieving comparable skill in upper-air and surface variables while reducing computational demands—marking a hybrid evolution beyond purely physics-based modeling.

Computing Infrastructure and Emerging AI Applications

ECMWF's high-performance computing facility (HPCF), located in , , forms the backbone of its operations. The current system, an BullSequana XH2000 operational since 18 October 2022, comprises four self-sufficient clusters with 7,680 compute nodes and 448 general-purpose I/O (GPIL) nodes, powered by processors offering 1,040,384 total cores and 2.1 PiB of memory. This setup delivers approximately 30 petaflops of sustained performance, supporting daily global forecasts through intensive simulations of atmospheric dynamics. The facility employs direct liquid cooling for efficiency, hierarchical Lustre-based storage via DDN EXAScaler, and a high-bandwidth HDR network exceeding 300 Tbps , with upgrades typically occurring every four to five years under an €80 million service contract with . Recent enhancements to the HPCF have enabled significant advances in forecast resolution and ensemble size, such as increasing medium-range ensemble forecasts from 18 km to 9 km grid spacing in Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Cycle 48r1, thereby improving predictive detail for phenomena like tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers. ECMWF collaborates on broader European initiatives, including access to the exascale supercomputer at , which entered operation on 5 September 2025 and targets at least one exaflop for enhanced and modeling. These resources underpin , ensemble generation, and reanalysis tasks, though they face ongoing challenges in energy efficiency and amid rising computational demands from higher-resolution models. In parallel, ECMWF has pioneered (AI) applications to augment traditional physics-based modeling, culminating in the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), a data-driven model based on graph neural networks and inspired by advancements like DeepMind's GraphCast. Launched operationally on 25 February 2025, AIFS runs four times daily alongside the IFS, generating global forecasts at approximately 1-degree resolution using pressure-level and surface fields trained on ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979–2018 and fine-tuned with IFS outputs from 2019–2020. An ensemble variant followed on 1 July 2025, enabling probabilistic predictions with reduced computational overhead compared to deterministic physics simulations. AIFS demonstrates superior skill in key metrics, such as anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) for 500 hPa geopotential height, outperforming the IFS in medium-range forecasts for verification periods, though it trails in surface variables like 2 m at coarse resolutions. Built using the open-source framework with and PyTorch Geometric, it leverages ECMWF's HPCF GPU capabilities for training and inference, offering faster run times—potentially tens of times quicker than equivalent numerical integrations—while requiring less energy. Forecasts are publicly accessible via OpenCharts and ECMWF's policy, fostering into hybrid AI-physics systems and sub-seasonal predictions through initiatives like the AI Weather Quest platform. Future developments include higher-resolution AIFS variants and integration with exascale resources to address limitations in extreme event predictability and long-range forecasting.

Outputs, Services, and Dissemination

Forecast Products and Accessibility

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) generates a range of real-time forecast products through its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), including high-resolution deterministic forecasts (HRES) extending up to 15 days ahead at approximately 9 km resolution, ensemble forecasts (ENS) comprising 51 members for probabilistic predictions, and extended-range forecasts up to 46 days. These products cover atmospheric variables such as , , , and , alongside specialized outputs like wave forecasts and tracks. Additionally, ECMWF produces seasonal forecasts using coupled ocean-atmosphere models, providing multi-month outlooks for variables including anomalies and totals. Forecast outputs are disseminated in multiple formats to support diverse applications, including graphical charts (e.g., meteograms, pattern maps, and tracks), gridded datasets in and , and BUFR-encoded observations-integrated products. Real-time data from both the IFS and the newer Forecasting System (AIFS) are included, with AIFS offering experimental high-resolution predictions leveraging for efficiency. Verification statistics and historical comparisons accompany these products to aid user interpretation. Accessibility to ECMWF products is structured by user type and agreement level, with member states and licensed partners receiving full, low-latency access to high-resolution data via dedicated systems like the ECMWF Web Charting (EWC) and APIs. Public access has expanded significantly; a subset of real-time forecast data has been freely available since prior years through platforms like AWS and the World Meteorological Organization's systems (WIS, GTS), in formats including and graphical products downloadable via FTP. As of 1 October 2025, ECMWF opened its entire real-time product catalogue to the public at no cost, initially at 25 km resolution with zero latency, distributed via public clouds and direct servers to enhance global usability while maintaining sustainability. Higher-resolution access is planned for free public release in 2026, alongside continued dissemination through EUMETCast for broadcast reception. This policy shift aligns ECMWF with principles, broadening applications in research, disaster preparedness, and commercial weather services without compromising core operational priorities.

Applications in Severe Weather Monitoring

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) applies its medium-range prediction system to monitor and provide early warnings for events, including wind storms, heatwaves, floods, droughts, and tropical cyclones, typically several days in advance to support contingency planning. These forecasts leverage probabilistic outputs from the 51-member to quantify risks of extremes, outperforming deterministic models in capturing and low-probability high-impact scenarios. Central to these applications are the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT), which compare ensemble forecast distributions against long-term climatologies to flag potential anomalies. The EFI, which applies to variables such as 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, precipitation, snowfall, and convective parameters (e.g., CAPE), ranges from 0 to 1 and indicates the proportion of the forecast differing from climate norms, with values above 0.6 signaling elevated risk, while SOT measures distributional shifts toward extremes. Verification shows these tools exhibit skill (relative operating characteristic area >0.5) for medium-range lead times up to 7 days or more, particularly when combining parameters like convective available potential energy (CAPE) with precipitation probabilities. For tropical cyclones, ECMWF ensembles generate probabilistic track and intensity forecasts, with verified improvements in accuracy; for instance, they contributed to predictions of Cyclone Dianne's path in early 2024. In severe , EFI based on CAPE-shear parameters provided signals 6 days ahead for events like the June 18, 2016, thunderstorms in and , and April 26, 2016, outbreaks across the U.S. from to . Extreme wind monitoring uses EFI to detect gust anomalies, aiding warnings for European storms. For extremes linked to floods, EFI and integrated water vapor transport EFI prototypes identify heavy rainfall risks, as in a forecasting system prototype and assessments showing utility for week-2 lead times during events. Heatwave monitoring, such as the early summer 2025 European event, employs EFI to highlight unusual temperature deviations. These products are disseminated via charts and datasets, enabling national services to tailor local alerts.

Impact, Verification, and Challenges

Forecast Accuracy and Global Influence

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational forecasts demonstrate leading accuracy in medium-range predictions, as quantified by standardized verification metrics such as the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) for 500 hPa and continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) for and . For the deterministic high-resolution forecast (HRES), the ACC for 500 hPa height in the extratropical maintains high skill, with thresholds like 80% ACC achieved at lead times superior to those of peer models, based on ongoing evaluations against operational analyses. predictions (ENS) further enhance reliability through probabilistic outputs, with 2024 verifications showing a roughly one-quarter day extension in skillful for 24-hour forecasts in the extratropics, verified against station observations via metrics like CRPSS exceeding 10%. Comparisons with other global systems, such as the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (GFS), consistently position ECMWF ahead in medium-range skill for variables like mean sea level pressure and upper-air patterns, as tracked through (WMO) standardized assessments. These accuracy advantages stem from advanced , high-resolution modeling (9 km grid spacing in HRES), and ensemble perturbations capturing , enabling reliable predictions up to 10-15 days for synoptic-scale features. Annual evaluations, including those for 2020-2021 and beyond, confirm steady improvements, with ECMWF maintaining the longest lead times for useful skill in extratropical regions despite challenges like tropical predictability limits. Independent benchmarks, such as those comparing against NCEP ensembles, highlight ECMWF's edge, where GFS achieves a 500 hPa ACC of 0.8 at about 8.7 days, while ECMWF extends comparable thresholds further through refined physics and initialization. ECMWF exerts substantial global influence, with its forecasts serving as a benchmark for national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) in 34 Member States (primarily European) and cooperating states, plus adoption by additional WMO members and non-European entities for operational guidance. Daily products, including deterministic and ensemble outputs, inform decision-making in weather-sensitive sectors worldwide, such as aviation routing, optimization, and agricultural planning, facilitated by free access to charts, datasets, and APIs. Collaborative initiatives, including impact experiments simulating enhanced observations, demonstrate ECMWF's role in bolstering global forecast quality, particularly in data-sparse regions, through shared reanalyses like ERA5 and partnerships that amplify skill across interconnected prediction systems. This influence extends to research and AI model training, where ECMWF data underpins advancements in adopted internationally.

Technical Limitations, Biases, and Improvement Efforts

The ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) faces inherent limitations stemming from the chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics, where small errors amplify over time, leading to predictability horizons typically extending to about 10-15 days for medium-range forecasts. Computational constraints further restrict horizontal resolutions, with operational ensemble forecasts currently at approximately 9 km despite ambitions for kilometre-scale grids, as higher resolutions demand exponentially more resources without proportional gains in skill beyond certain thresholds. Model representations of sub-grid processes, such as and cloud microphysics, introduce approximations that degrade accuracy for mesoscale phenomena like localized thunderstorms or tropical cyclones. Systematic biases persist in IFS outputs, including cold sea-surface biases in seasonal forecasts over regions like the Equatorial Eastern and negative biases in high-latitude runoff simulations, partly attributable to land shortcomings. Near-surface forecasts exhibit regional cold biases in winter, while elevation-dependent errors distort altitudinal gradients in mountainous areas, affecting variables like and winds. These biases arise from mismatches between model physics and observations, as well as assumptions of bias-free models in , which overlook systematic errors in observation operators or forcing terms. In predictions, underestimation of spread can mask true , blending bias with probabilistic shortcomings. ECMWF addresses these through iterative IFS cycle upgrades, such as the June 2023 implementation that unified medium-range resolutions at 9 km for both deterministic and ensemble runs, yielding 2-6% skill improvements in surface variables. The 2024 upgrade enhanced two-metre temperature forecasts via refined 4D-Var assimilation of surface observations and updated vegetation/snow schemes, reducing stratospheric biases by up to 50% with weak-constraint 4D-Var configurations. Ongoing efforts incorporate machine learning for bias correction, including post-processing heavy precipitation and adaptive schemes for numerical weather prediction outputs, alongside ocean-wave model refinements for better air-sea interactions under strong winds. The 2021-2030 strategy emphasizes scalability for 5 km ensembles, advanced data assimilation to handle model errors, and hybrid AI-physics approaches to mitigate extrapolation limits in unseen regimes.

Geopolitical and Funding Dependencies

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) derives the majority of its operational funding from annual contributions by its 35 Member and Co-operating States, which totaled £62.5 million in 2023 and are apportioned according to a scale reflecting each state's gross national income. These contributions support core activities such as numerical weather prediction research and infrastructure maintenance, creating a direct dependency on the fiscal priorities and economic stability of participating governments, including 23 Member States (e.g., Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Kingdom) and 12 Co-operating States. Additional revenue streams include sales of forecast data and externally funded projects, but national contributions remain the foundational element, exposing ECMWF to risks from budgetary constraints or policy shifts in key contributors like Germany and France, which provide the largest shares due to their economic scale. A significant supplementary dependency arises from contracts for implementing the Copernicus programme's Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and Service (C3S), renewed periodically with the and providing dedicated funding for climate and atmospheric data services since 2014. This funding, which supports specialized infrastructure like the Copernicus hub in , , ties ECMWF's expansion in environmental monitoring to the bloc's budgetary cycles and priorities, potentially vulnerable to shifts in EU cohesion policy or post-2027 programme reforms. While diversifying revenue reduces sole reliance on state dues, the Copernicus linkage amplifies exposure to intra-European political dynamics, as evidenced by the partial relocation of operations from the (Reading) to Italy () following to safeguard continuity amid uncertainties in UK-EU relations. Geopolitically, ECMWF's consensus-based governance—requiring agreement among diverse member states for strategic decisions—introduces dependencies on diplomatic alignment, with non-EU members like the , , , and providing balance against predominant influence but complicating unified responses to external pressures. Its forecasting models assimilate global observational data via (WMO) conventions, rendering accuracy contingent on uninterrupted international exchange; disruptions, such as those during the 2022 , where Western providers including EUMETNET curtailed meteorological data access to to prevent military misuse, have highlighted vulnerabilities to conflict-induced gaps in upstream observations from affected regions. ECMWF mitigated such risks by prioritizing humanitarian forecasting support for and emphasizing data gap closure experiments, which demonstrated forecast degradation without comprehensive inputs, underscoring the causal link between geopolitical tensions and operational efficacy. 's non-membership limits direct leverage but amplifies broader risks from sanctions or reciprocal withholdings in WMO data flows.

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