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Failed state
Failed state
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A failed state is a state that has lost its ability to fulfill fundamental security and development functions, lacking effective control over its territory and borders. Common characteristics of a failed state include a government incapable of tax collection, law enforcement, security assurance, territorial control, political or civil office staffing, and infrastructure maintenance.[1] When this happens, likely consequences include widespread corruption and criminality, the intervention of state and non-state actors, the appearance of refugees and the involuntary movement of populations, sharp economic decline, and military intervention from both within and outside the state.[2]

The term was initially applied in the 1990s to characterize the civil war in Somalia. The country descended into disorder following a coup that ousted its dictator Siad Barre in 1991, leading to internal conflicts among the country's clans.[1] In the early 2020s, Afghanistan,[3] the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti,[4][5] Libya,[6][7] Mali,[8][9] Myanmar,[10][11] Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan,[12] Syria,[3] and Yemen[13] have all been described as failed states.[14]

Various metrics have been developed to describe the level of governance of states, with significant variation among authorities regarding the specific level of government control needed to consider a state as failed.[15] In 2023, the Fund for Peace think tank identified 12 countries in its most susceptible categories on the Fragile States Index.[16] Formally designating a state as "failed" can be a controversial decision with significant geopolitical implications.

Definition and issues

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The term "failed state" originated in the 1990s, particularly in the context of Somalia's turmoil after the overthrow of its dictator Siad Barre in 1991.[1] The phrase gained prominence during the American-led intervention in Somalia in 1992. It was used to express concerns about the potential collapse of poor states into chaotic anarchy after the end of the Cold War, as highlighted by Robert Kaplan's depiction of chaos in Liberia and Sierra Leone and his warning of a "coming anarchy" in various global regions.[17]

According to the political theories of Max Weber, a state is defined as maintaining a monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force within its borders. When this is broken (e.g., through the dominant presence of warlords, paramilitary groups, corrupt policing, armed gangs, or terrorism), the very existence of the state becomes dubious, and the state becomes a failed state. The difficulty of determining whether a government maintains "a monopoly on the legitimate use of force", which includes the problems of the definition of "legitimate", means it is not clear when a state can be said to have "failed". The problem of legitimacy can be solved by understanding what Weber intended by it. Weber explains that only the state has the means of production necessary for physical violence. This means that the state does not require legitimacy for achieving a monopoly on having the means of violence (de facto), but will need one if it needs to use it (de jure).[citation needed]

Typically, the term means that the state has been rendered ineffective and is not able to enforce its laws uniformly or provide basic goods and services to its citizens. The conclusion that a state is failing or has failed can be drawn from the observation of a variety of characteristics and combinations thereof. Examples of such characteristics include, but are not limited to, the presence of an insurgency, extreme political corruption, overwhelming crime rates suggestive of an incapacitated police force, an impenetrable and ineffective bureaucracy, judicial ineffectiveness, military interference in politics, and consolidation of power by regional actors such that it rivals or eliminates the influence of national authorities. Other factors of perception may be involved. A derived concept of "failed cities" has also been launched, based on the notion that while a state may function in general, polities at the substate level may collapse in terms of infrastructure, economy, and social policy. Certain areas or cities may even fall outside state control, becoming a de facto ungoverned part of the state.[18]

No consistent or quantitative definition of a "failed state" exists; the subjective nature of the indicators that are used to infer state failure have led to an ambiguous understanding of the term.[19] Some scholars focus on the capacity and effectiveness of the government to determine whether a state is failed.[20] Other indices such as the Fund for Peace's Fragile States Index employ assessments of the democratic character of a state's institutions as a means of determining its degree of failure.[21] Other scholars focus their argument on the legitimacy of the state,[22] the nature of the state,[23] the growth of criminal violence,[24] the economic extractive institutions,[25] or the states' capacity to control its territory.[26] Robert H. Bates refers to state failure as the "implosion of the state", where the state transforms "into an instrument of predation" and effectively loses its monopoly on the means of force.[27]

Measurement

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The measurement methods of state failure are generally divided into the quantitative and qualitative approach.

Quantitative approach

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Quantitative measurement of state failure often focuses on the developmental level of the state (e.g. the Freedom House Index (FHI), the Human Development Index (HDI), or the World Bank Governance Indicators). Additionally, regional evaluation might give concrete details about the level of democracy such as the Report of Democratic Development in Latin America (Informe de desarrollo democrático de América Latina).[28]

Fragile States Index

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Countries according to the 2023 Fragile States Index
  Very high alert (111–120)
  High alert (101–110)
  Alert (91–100)
  High warning (81–90)
  Elevated warning (71–80)
  Warning (61–70)
  Less stable (51–60)
  Stable (41–50)
  More stable (31–40)
  Sustainable (21–30)
  Very sustainable (0–20)
  Data unavailable

The Fragile States Index (FSI), first published in 2005, measures failed state qualities. Edited by the magazine Foreign Policy, the ranking examines 178 countries based on analytical research of the Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) of the Fund for Peace.[29] In the 2015 report, written by the Fund for Peace, there are three groupings: social, economic, and political with 12 overall indicators.[30]

Social indicators:

  • Demographic pressures
  • Refugees or internally displaced persons
  • Group grievance
  • Human flight and brain drain

Economic indicators:

  • Uneven economic development
  • Poverty and economic decline

Political and military indicators:

  • State legitimacy
  • Public services
  • Human rights and rule of law
  • Security apparatus
  • Factionalized elites
  • External intervention

In the 2015 index, South Sudan ranked number one, Somalia number two, and the Central African Republic number three. Finland was the most stable and sustainable country in the list.[31]

While the FSI is used in many pieces of research and makes the categorization of states more pragmatic, it often receives much criticism for several reasons:

  1. It does not include the Human Development Index to reach the final score but instead focuses on institutions to measure what are often also considered human aspects for development.
  2. It parallels the fragility or vulnerability of states with underdevelopment. This comparison firstly assumes that underdevelopment (economic) creates vulnerability, thus assuming that if a state is "developed" it is stable or sustainable.
  3. It measures the failure (or success) of a state without including the progress of other areas outside the sphere of the 12 indicators, thus excluding important measures of development such as the decline in child mortality rates, and increased access to clean water sources and medication, amongst others.

FSI is used by governments, organizations, educators and analysts, sometimes to highlight the issues that cause threats.

Qualitative approach

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The qualitative approach embraces theoretical frameworks. Normally, this type of measurement applies stage models to allow the categorization of states. In three to five stages, researchers show state failure as a process. Notable researchers, among others, are Robert I. Rotberg in the Anglo-American and Ulrich Schneckener in the German sphere.

Schneckener's 2006 stage model defines three core elements, monopoly of violence, legitimacy, and rule of law. The typology is based on the security first logic and thus, shows the relevance of the monopoly of violence in comparison to the other two while at the same time acting as the precondition for a functioning state. His four statehood types are: (1) consolidated and consolidating states, (2) weak states, (3) failing, and (4) collapsed/failed states. The first type is directed towards functioning states; all core functions of the state are functioning in the long term. In weak states, the monopoly of force is still intact, but the other two areas show serious deficits. Failing states lack the monopoly of force, while the other areas function at least partially. Finally, collapsed or failed states are dominated by parastatal structures characterized by actors trying to create a certain internal order, but the state cannot sufficiently serve the three core elements.[32]

Both research approaches show some irregularities. While the quantitative approach lacks transparency concerning its indicators and their balancing in the evaluation process of countries, the qualitative approach shows a diversity of different foci. One of the major discrepancies is the question of whether all the stages have to be taken continuously or if a state can skip one phase. Schneckener stresses that his model should actually not be interpreted as a stage model as, in his opinion, states do not necessarily undergo every stage. Rotberg's model underlies an ordinal logic and thus, implies that the state failure process is a chronological chain of phases.[33]

Theoretical mechanisms for state development

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State development through war-making

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Charles Tilly (1985) argues that war-making was an indispensable aspect of state development in Europe through the following interdependent functions:

  • War-making—rulers eliminate external rivals (requires building military forces and supportive bureaucracies)
  • State-making—rulers eliminate internal rivals and establish control over their territories (requires building police forces and bureaucracies)
  • Protection—rulers bring about benefit to their clients by eliminating their external rivals and guaranteeing their rights (requires building courts and representative assemblies)
  • Extraction—rulers extract more tax from their subjects (requires building tax collection apparatuses and exchequers)

Tilly summarizes this linkage in the famous phrase: "War made the state, and the state made war."

Similarly, Herbst (1990) adds that a war might be the only chance to strengthen an extraction capability since it forced rulers to risk their political lives for extra revenue and forced subjects to consent to pay more tax. It is also important for state development because the increased revenue would not return to its original level even after the wars end. Contrary to European states, however, he also pointed out that most Third World states lacked external threats and had not waged interstate wars, implying that these states are unlikely to take similar steps in the future.[34]

"Nation-building" by developed countries

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Steward and Knaus (2012) tackle the question "Can intervention work?" and conclude "we can help nations build themselves" by putting an end to war and providing "well-resourced humanitarian interventions". They criticize the overconfidence of policymakers on nation-building by contrasting what they regard as successful interventions in Bosnia (1995) and Kosovo (1999) with the failed attempt of nation-building in Iraq (2003) and Afghanistan (2001–2021) in which the U.S. lost thousands of lives over ten years and expended more than a trillion dollars without realizing its central objective of nation-building.[35] When a so-called failed nation-state is crushed by internal violence or disruption, and consequently is no longer able to deliver positive political goods to its inhabitants, developed states feel the obligation to intervene and assist in rebuilding them.[36] However, intervention is not always seen positively, but due to past intervention by for instance the U.S. government, scholars[who?] argue that the concept of a failed state is an invented rationale to impose developed states' interests on less powerful states.[37]

Labeling states like Somalia or Liberia as failed states gives Western countries the legitimization to impose the Western idea of a stable nation-state. It is commonly accepted that nation-building or international response to troubled/rogue states happens too late or too quickly, which is due to inadequate analysis or a lack of political will. Still, it is important to highlight that developed nations and their aid institutions have had a positive impact on many failed states. Nation-building is context-specific; thus, a country's cultural-political and social environment needs to be carefully analyzed before intervening as a foreign state.[38] The Western world has increasingly become concerned about failed states and sees them as threats to security. The concept of the failed state is often used to defend policy interventions by the West. Further, as Chesterman, Ignatieff, and Thakur argue, regarding the duration of international action by developed states and international organizations, a central problem is that a crisis tends to be focused on time, while the most essential work of reframing and building up a state and its institutions takes years or decades. Therefore, effective state-building is a slow process, and suggesting otherwise to the domestic public is disingenuous.[39]

Promoting development through foreign aid

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Pritchett, Woolcock, and Andrews (2013) analyze the systematic failure of the development of failed states. They define "state administrative capability for implementation" as the key aspect of state development, and find the mechanism in which failed states stumbled regardless of decades of development practices tried, billions of dollars spent, and alleged "progress" boasted. These countries adopted the following techniques, which led to undermining it:

  1. systemic isomorphic mimicry—disguising the dysfunction of states by simply mimicking the appearance of functional states.
  2. premature load bearing—limited-capacity states being overloaded with "unrealistic expectations".

In light of the fact that many of these countries would likely need centuries to reach the state capability of developed countries, they suggest creating "context-specific institutions", promoting "incremental reform process", and setting "realistic expectations" for attaining the goal of substantial development.[40]

Foreign aid produces several unintended consequences when used to develop the institutional capacity of the state. Donors will often delegate aid spending to recipient governments since they do not have the information or capacity to identify who is in the greatest need and how it can be best spent.[41] The downside of this is that it can be captured by recipient governments and diverted either towards self-enrichment of incumbent elites or to establish and maintain clientelist networks to allow them to remain in power—for example, in Kenya, aid allocation is biased towards constituencies with high vote shares for the incumbent, so the geographic distribution of aid changes to their supporters following a change of regime.[42] Furthermore, aid can also be diverted to non-state actors, and thus undermine the state's monopoly on violence, such as in Colombia during the 1990s and 2000s, where U.S. aid to the Colombian military was diverted by the military to paramilitary groups, leading to significant increases in paramilitary violence in municipalities located near military bases.[43] The implication is that foreign aid can undermine the state by both feeding corruption of incumbent elites, and empowering groups outside of the state.

Moss, Todd, Gunilla Pettersson, and Nicolas Van de Walle (2006) acknowledge the controversy over the effect of foreign aid that has developed in recent years. They argue that although there is a call for an increase in large aid efforts in Africa by the international community, this will actually create what they call an "aid-institutions paradox".[44] This paradox is formed because of the large cash contributions that Western countries have given to African countries have created institutions that are "less accountable to their citizens and under less pressure to maintain popular legitimacy."[44] They mention that the gradual decrease of aid may help foster long-lasting institutions, which is proven by the United States' efforts in Korea after the Cold War.

Berman, Eli, Felter, Shapiro, and Trolan (2013) also find similar evidence to support the paradox, stating that large U.S. aid attempts in African agriculture have only resulted in further conflict between citizens. Notably, small investments such as grants for schools have proven to decrease violence compared to large investments, which create "incentives to capture economic rents through violence."[45] Furthermore, Binyavanga Wainaina (2009) likens Western aid to colonization, in which countries believe that large cash contributions to spur the African economy will lead to political development and less violence. In reality, these cash contributions do not invest in Africa's economic, political, and social growth.[46]

Neotrusteeship

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James Fearon and David Laitin suggest in "Neotrusteeship and the Problem of Weak States" that the problem of failed states can be addressed through a system of "neotrusteeship", which they compare to "postmodern imperialism".[47] Fearon and Laitin's idea involves a combination of international and domestic organizations which seek to rebuild states. Fearon and Laitin start with the assumption that failed states comprise a collective action problem. Failed states impose negative externalities on the rest of the international system, like refugees displaced by war. It would be a net good for the international system if countries worked to develop and rebuild failed states. However, intervention is very costly, and no single nation has a strong enough incentive to act to solve the problem of a failed state. Therefore, international cooperation is necessary to solve this collective action problem.

Fearon and Laitin identify four main problems to achieving collective action to intervene in failed states:

  1. Recruitment - getting countries to participate in and pay for interventions
  2. Coordination - providing good communication between all of the peacekeeping countries
  3. Accountability - ensuring that any peacekeeping countries that commit human rights abuses are held responsible
  4. Exit - having some mechanism for the peacekeeping countries to withdraw

Fearon and Laitin do propose some solutions to these problems. To solve the recruitment problem, they argue for having a powerful state with security interests in the failed state to take the lead in the peacekeeping operations and serve a point role. Having a single state lead the peacekeeping operation would help solve the coordination problem. Empowering a UN body to investigate human rights abuses would solve the accountability problem. Finally, forcing the failed state to contribute funds to peacekeeping operations after several years can reduce the incentives of the peacekeepers to exit. Fearon and Laitin believe that multilateral interventions that solve the above four collective action problems will be more effective at rebuilding failed states through neotrusteeship.[47]

Autonomous recovery

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Jeremy Weinstein disagrees that peacekeeping is necessary to rebuild failed states, arguing that allowing failed states to recover on their own is often better.[48] Weinstein fears that international intervention may prevent a state from developing strong internal institutions and capabilities. One of Weinstein's key arguments is that war leads to peace. By this, he means that peace agreements imposed by the international community tend to freeze in place power disparities that do not reflect reality. Weinstein believes that such a situation leaves a state ripe for future war, while if war were allowed to play out for one side to win decisively, future war would be much less likely. Weinstein also claims that war leads to the development of strong state institutions. Weinstein borrows from Tilly to make this argument, stating that wars require large expansions in state capabilities, so the more stable and capable states will win wars and survive in the international system through a process similar to natural selection. Weinstein uses evidence from Uganda's successful recovery following a guerrilla victory in a civil war, Eritrea's forceful secession from Ethiopia, and development in Somaliland and Puntland—autonomous regions of Somalia—to support his claims. Weinstein does note that lack of external intervention can lead to mass killings and other atrocities, but he emphasizes that preventing mass killings has to be weighed against the ensuing loss of long-term state capacity.[48]

Capability traps of failed states

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A capability trap means that countries are progressing at a very slow pace in the expansion of state capability, even in the contemporary world, which is also the core problem of failed states.[40] Many countries remain stuck in conditions of low productivity that many call "poverty traps". Economic growth is only one aspect of development; another key dimension of development is the expansion of the administrative capability of the state, the capability of governments to affect the course of events by implementing policies and programs.[49] Capability traps close the space for novelty, establishing fixed best-practice agendas as the basis of evaluating failed states. Local agents are therefore excluded from building their own states, implicitly undermining the value-creating ideas of local leaders and front-line workers.

Matt, Lant, and Woolcock from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government propose an approach called the "Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA)" to escape the capability traps.[50] Given that many development initiatives fail to improve performance because they promote isomorphic mimicry, PDIA focuses on solving locally nominated and prioritized performance problems of failed states. It involves pursuing development interventions that engage broad sets of local agents to ensure the reforms are politically supportable and practically implementable.

While failed states are the source of numerous refugees, the chaotic emigration allowed by UN regulations and open border policies has contributed to human capital flight, or brain drain. Without sufficient professional and skilled workers, such as doctors, nurses, biologists, engineers, electricians, and so on, the severity of failed states tends to increase, leading to even more emigration. Similarly, policies that do not require third country resettlement on the same continent as failed states make eventual resettlement after the war, famine, or political collapse even less probable, as the distance, cost, and inconvenience of returning to home countries increase with distance and language change among refugee families. In Somalia, Afghanistan, and Yemen, the reform movements and modernization efforts are weakened when there are no effective refugee resettlement programs.

Promoting good governance and combating further hostilities in failed states

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Transnational crime and terrorism

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According to U.S. Department of Justice trial attorney Dan E. Stigall, "the international community is confronted with an increasing level of transnational crime in which criminal conduct in one country has an impact in another or even several others. Drug trafficking, human trafficking, computer crimes, terrorism, and a host of other crimes can involve actors operating outside the borders of a country which might have a significant interest in stemming the activity in question and prosecuting the perpetrator".[51]

A study by the Cligendael Center for Strategic Studies[52] explains why states that are subject to failure serve as sanctuaries (used to plan, execute, support, and finance activities) for terrorist organizations. When the government does not know about the presence of the organization or if it is not able to weaken or remove the organization, the sanctuary is referred to as a "Terrorist Black Hole". However, next to governmental weakness, there needs to be "Terrorist Comparative Advantages" present for a region to be considered as a "Terrorist Black Hole". According to the study, social tensions, the legacy from civil conflict, geography, corruption, policy failure, and external factors contribute to governmental weakness. The comparative advantages are religion and ethnicity, the legacy from civil conflict, geography, economic opportunities, economic underdevelopment, and regional stimuli. Only the combinations of the two factors (governmental weakness and Terrorist Comparative Advantages) explain which regions terrorists use as sanctuaries.

Research by James Piazza of Pennsylvania State University finds evidence that nations affected by state failure experience and produce more terrorist attacks.[53] Contemporary transnational crimes "take advantage of globalization, trade liberalization and exploding new technologies to perpetrate diverse crimes and to move money, goods, services and people instantaneously for purposes of perpetrating violence for political ends".[54]

Contributing to previous research on the matter, Tiffany Howard[55] looks at a different dimension of the connection between state failure and terrorism, based on evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. She argues that "citizens of failed states are attracted to political violence because of the deteriorating conditions within this type of states".[55] Focusing on individual citizens' decision-making patterns, it is suggested that "individuals living in failed states are attracted to political violence because the system is broken—the state has failed in its duty".[55] This finding is based on empirical evidence using barometer survey data. This individual-level approach, which differs from previous research which has focused on the attractiveness of failed states for terrorists and insurgents[56][57] finds that "failed states threaten an individual's survival, which ultimately drives them to obtain tangible political and economic resources through other means, which include the use of political violence".[55] This finding has significant implications for the international community, such as the fact that "this pattern of deprivation makes individuals in these states more susceptible to the influence of internationally sponsored terrorist groups. As a consequence, failed states are breeding grounds for terrorists, who then export their radical ideologies to other parts of the world to create terrorist threats across the globe".[55]

The link between state failure (and its characteristics) and terrorism, however, is not unanimously accepted in the scholarly literature. Research by Alberto Abadie, which looks at determinants of terrorism at the country level, suggests that the "terrorist risk is not significantly higher for poorer countries, once the effects of other country-specific characteristics such as the level of political freedom are taken into account".[58] In fact, as the argument goes, "political freedom is shown to explain terrorism, but it does so in a non-monotonic way: countries in some intermediate range of political freedom are shown to be more prone to terrorism than countries with high levels of political freedom or countries with highly authoritarian regimes".[58] While poverty and low levels of political freedom are not the main characteristics of failed states, they are nevertheless important ones.[59] For this reason, Abadie's research represents a powerful critique of the idea that there is a link between state failure and terrorism. This link is also questioned by other scholars, such as Corinne Graff, who argues that 'there is simply no robust empirical relationship between poverty and terrorist attacks'.[60]

Moreover, "problems of weakened states and transnational crime create an unholy confluence that is uniquely challenging. When a criminal operates outside the territory of an offended state, the offended state might ordinarily appeal to the state from which the criminal is operating to take some sort of action, such as to prosecute the offender domestically or extradite the offender so that he or she may face punishment in the offended state. Nonetheless, in situations in which a government is unable (or unwilling) to cooperate in the arrest or prosecution of a criminal, the offended state has few options for recourse".[51]

Examples

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A relevant contribution to the field of failed states and its attributes is made by Jack Goldstone in his 2008 Conflict Management and Peace Science paper entitled "Pathways to State Failure".[61] He defines a failed state as one that has lost both its effectiveness and legitimacy. Effectiveness means the capability to carry out state functions such as providing security or levying taxes. Legitimacy means the support of important groups of the population. A state that retains one of these two aspects is not failing as such; however, it is in great danger of failing soon if nothing is done. He identifies five possible pathways to state failure:

  1. Escalation of communal (ethnic or religious) group conflicts. Examples: Rwanda and SFR Yugoslavia
  2. State predation (corrupt or crony corralling of resources at the expense of other groups). Examples: Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Philippines
  3. Regional or guerrilla rebellion. Examples: Colombia and Vietnam
  4. Democratic collapse (leading to civil war or coup d'état). Examples: Nigeria and Myanmar.
  5. Succession or reform crisis in authoritarian states. Examples: Indonesia under Suharto and the Soviet Union under Gorbachev.

Larry Diamond[62] in his 2006 paper "Promoting democracy in post-conflict and failed states" argues that weak and failed states pose distinctive problems for democracy promotion. In these states, the challenge is not only to pressure authoritarian state leaders to surrender power but rather to figure out how to regenerate legitimate power in the first place. There are mainly two distinct types of cases, and each of these two types of cases requires specific kinds of strategies for the promotion of good governance:

  1. The post-conflict states that are emerging from external or civil war. A number of these countries, such as Nigeria, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Somalia, have been in Africa, while others have been in Latin America (Nicaragua, El Salvador, and much of Central America), in Asia (e.g., Cambodia), or in the Middle East (Lebanon, Algeria, and Iraq);
  2. Countries that are in the midst of civil war or ongoing violent conflict, where central state authority has largely collapsed, as in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Generally speaking, the order is the most important prerequisite for democracy promotion, which relies heavily on formal democratic mechanisms, particularly elections, to promote post-conflict state-building. In the absence of an effective state, there are basically three possibilities. First, if there has been a civil war and a rebel force has ultimately triumphed, then the vacuum may be filled by the rebellious army and political movement as it establishes control over the state. Second, there may be a patchwork of warlords and armies, with either no real central state (as in Somalia) or only a very weak one. In this situation, the conflict does not really end, but may wax and wane in a decentralized fashion, as in Afghanistan today. The third possibility is that an international actor or coalition of actors steps in to constitute temporary authority politically and militarily. This may be an individual country, a coalition, an individual country under the thin veneer of a coalition, or the United Nations acting through the formal architecture of a UN post-conflict mission.

Failed states according to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index[14][a]
Country '24 '22 '20 '18 '16 '14 '12 '10 '08 '06
 Afghanistan[b] Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
CAR Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
 Chad Yes
DR Congo Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
 Haiti Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
 Iraq Yes Yes
 Ivory Coast Yes Yes
 Libya Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
 Myanmar Yes
 Somalia Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
 South Sudan Yes Yes Yes Yes
 Sudan Yes Yes Yes
 Syria Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
 Yemen Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Criticisms of the concept

[edit]

The term "failed state" has faced criticism along two main strands. The first argues that the term lends itself to overgeneralization by lumping together different governance problems amongst diverse countries and without accounting for variations of governance within states.[63] The second is concerned with the political application of the term in order to justify military interventions and state-building based on a Western model of the state.[64]

Olivier Nay, William Easterly, and Laura Freschi critique the concept of state failure as not having a coherent definition, with indices combining various indicators of state performance arbitrarily weighted to arrive at unclear and aggregated measurements of state fragility.[65] Charles T. Call argues that the label of "failed state" has been applied so widely that it has been effectively rendered useless.[66] As there has been little consensus over how to define failed states, the characteristics commonly used to identify a failing state are numerous and extremely diverse, from human rights violations, poverty, corruption to demographic pressures.[67] This means that a wide range of highly divergent states are categorized together as failed (or failing) states. This can conceal the complexity of the specific weaknesses identified within individual states and result in a one-size-fits-all approach, typically focused on strengthening the state's capacity for order. Furthermore, the use of the term 'failed state' has been used by some foreign powers as a justification for invading a country or determining a specific prescriptive set of foreign policy goals. Following 2001, Call notes that the US stated that failed states were one of the greatest security threats facing the country, based on the assumption that a country with weak or non-existent state institutions would provide a safe haven for terrorists, and act as a breeding ground for extremism.

Call suggests that instead of branding countries as failed states, they could be categorized in more relevant, understandable terms.[68] For example, a "collapsed state" would refer to a country where the state apparatus completely falls apart and ceases to exist for a couple of months. This would only apply to a country where absolutely no basic functions of the state were working, and non-state actors were carrying out such tasks. A "weak state" could be used for states where informal institutions carry out more of the public services and channeling of goods than formal state institutions. A "war-torn" state might not be functioning because of conflict, but this does not necessarily imply it is a collapsed state. Rotberg argues that all failed states are experiencing some form of armed conflict. However, the challenges to the state can be very different depending on the type of armed conflict, whether it encompasses the country as a whole and large territories, or is specifically focused on one regional area. Another type of state that has been traditionally put under the umbrella term "failed state" could be an "authoritarian state". While authoritarian leaders might come to power by violent means, they may ward off opposition once in power and, as such, ensure there is little violence within their regime. Call argues that the circumstances and challenges facing state-building in such regimes are very different from those posed in a state in civil war. These four alternative definitions highlight the many different circumstances that can lead a state to be categorized under the umbrella term of "failed state", and the danger of adopting prescriptive one-size-fits-all policy approaches to very different situations. As a result of these taxonomical difficulties, Wynand Greffrath posits a nuanced approach to "state dysfunction" as a form of political decay, which emphasizes qualitative theoretical analysis.[69]

Call attempts to abandon the concept of state failure altogether, arguing that it promotes an unclear understanding of what state failure means. Instead, Call advances a "gap framework" as an alternative means of assessing the effectiveness of state administration.[21] This framework builds on his previous criticism of the state failure concept as overly generalized. Call thus asserts that it is often inappropriately applied as a catch-all theory to explain the plight of states that are in fact subject to diverse national contexts and do not possess identical problems. Utilizing such an evaluation to support policy prescriptions, Call posits, is then responsible for poor policy formulation and outcomes.[68] As such, Call's proposed framework develops the concept of state failure through the codification of three "gaps" in resource provision that the state is not able to address when it is in the process of failure: capacity, when state institutions lack the ability to effectively deliver basic goods and services to its population; security, when the state is unable to provide security to its population under the threat of armed groups; and legitimacy when a "significant portion of its political elites and society reject the rules regulating power and the accumulation and distribution of wealth."[21]

Instead of attempting to quantify the degree of failure of a state, the gap framework provides a three-dimensional scope useful to analyze the interplay between the government and the society in states in a more analytical way. Call does not necessarily suggest that states that suffer from the challenges of the three gaps should be identified as failed states but instead presents the framework as an alternative to the state failure concept as a whole. Although Call recognizes that the gap concept in itself has limits since often states face two or more of the gap challenges, his conceptual proposition presents a useful way for more precisely identifying the challenges within a society and the policy prescriptions that are more likely to be effective for external and international actors to implement.[21]

Drawing on five case studies — Afghanistan, Somalia, Liberia, Sudan, and the Niger Delta region of Nigeria — Morten Bøås and Kathleen M. Jennings argue that "the use of the 'failed state' label is inherently political and based primarily on Western perceptions of Western security and interests".[70] They suggest that Western policy-makers attribute the "failed" label to those states in which "recession and informalisation of the state is perceived to be a threat to Western interests".[70] Furthermore, this suggests hypocrisy among Western policy-makers: the same forms of perceived dysfunction that lead to some states being labeled as failed are in turn met with apathy or are knowingly expedited in other states where such dysfunction is assessed to be beneficial to Western interests. In fact, "this feature of state functioning is not only accepted, but also to a certain degree facilitated, as it creates an enabling environment for business and international capital. These cases are not branded 'failed states'".[70]

See also

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Explanatory notes

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References

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Further reading

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from Grokipedia
A failed state is a political entity whose cannot or will not deliver core political goods—such as , , basic public services, and economic opportunity—to the majority of its citizens, resulting in the erosion of its monopoly on legitimate violence, loss of territorial control, and widespread institutional breakdown. This condition manifests in chronic internal violence, factional elite competition, abuses, and economic stagnation, often spilling over into regional instability, refugee flows, and safe havens for non-state actors like terrorist groups or criminal networks. The term gained prominence through the work of political scientist Robert I. Rotberg, who differentiated failed states from merely weak ones by their total incapacity to fulfill foundational governance functions, contrasting with partial deficiencies in the latter. Empirical assessments, such as the annual compiled by the Fund for Peace using over 100 indicators across categories like apparatus, state legitimacy, and external intervention, rank countries on a spectrum of fragility to quantify these pressures and track trends over time. Defining characteristics include predatory ruling elites who prioritize personal enrichment over public welfare, demographic imbalances exacerbating resource strains, and vulnerability to external shocks, underscoring causal links between governance failures and state collapse rather than exogenous factors alone. While the label invites debate over its applicability—particularly in contexts of or post-colonial narratives—clear exemplars like and demonstrate the tangible human costs of such failures, including , , and power vacuums exploited by militias.

Conceptual Foundations

Definition and Core Attributes

A failed state refers to a political entity where the central government has lost the capacity to exercise effective authority over its territory and population, primarily due to pervasive internal violence that prevents the delivery of core political goods such as security, rule of law, and basic welfare services. This breakdown manifests as a collapse in state functionality, where the regime forfeits legitimacy not merely through popular discontent but through systemic inability to govern, often leading to fragmented authority held by non-state actors. Unlike mere weakness or fragility, failure implies a threshold where the state apparatus actively contributes to disorder rather than mitigating it, as evidenced in cases like Somalia in the 1990s, where clan-based militias supplanted national institutions following the 1991 overthrow of Siad Barre. Core attributes of failed states encompass the erosion of the government's monopoly on legitimate , resulting in uncontrolled civil strife and territorial fragmentation. Governments in such states exhibit acute legitimacy deficits, marked by , , and predatory behavior that alienate citizens and undermine institutional trust. Essential public goods— including security apparatus deployment, judicial enforcement, and provision of , and —collapse, exacerbating , illiteracy, and disease prevalence. Economic indicators reveal stagnation or decline, with resource mismanagement and illicit economies (e.g., or ) dominating, further entrenching cycles of and humanitarian crises. These attributes are interlinked causally: internal violence precipitates service failures, which in turn fuel legitimacy and economic decay, creating self-reinforcing instability absent external intervention or internal reform. Empirical assessments, drawing from post-colonial African and Middle Eastern examples, highlight that failure is not inevitable but stems from pathologies where elites prioritize survival over . While some scholars critique the term for aggregating diverse cases without causal precision, its utility lies in identifying states where basic —defined as Weberian control over means of —has demonstrably lapsed. A failed state differs from a weak state in the degree of institutional breakdown and capacity to deliver core functions; weak states maintain partial control over their , provide some public goods such as limited education or health services, and enforce law unevenly, whereas failed states exhibit near-total loss of , widespread , and inability to sustain even rudimentary . This distinction underscores that weak states, while inefficient or corrupt, avoid the pervasive internal violence and service collapse characteristic of failed ones. The term fragile state often overlaps with weak or failing states but implies vulnerability to shocks rather than outright failure; fragile states possess limited resilience and governance capacity, making them prone to conflict or , yet they retain some central authority and functionality absent in failed states, where state institutions have effectively dissolved. Scholars note that "fragile" serves as a broader, less label for states with poor performance in and development, contrasting with the acute, terminal dysfunction of failed states. Failing states represent a transitional phase toward failure, marked by escalating internal strife, eroding legitimacy, and declining service provision, but they have not yet reached the point of comprehensive territorial abandonment seen in failed states. In contrast, a collapsed state denotes an extreme variant of failure, involving total institutional disintegration, prolonged without even nominal remnants, and reliance on private or mechanisms for survival—rarer and more chaotic than standard failed states. Rogue states, by comparison, emphasize external defiance and policy choices such as pursuing weapons of mass destruction or supporting , rather than internal incapacity; these states often maintain domestic control and functionality, distinguishing them from failed states where implodes irrespective of international behavior. Failed states may enable rogue activities through ungoverned spaces, but the core pathology lies in endogenous collapse, not deliberate antagonism.

Historical Context

Origins of the Term

The term "failed state" was introduced by Gerald B. Helman, a former U.S. ambassador to the in , and Steven R. Ratner, a deputy director in the State Department's policy planning staff, in their article "Saving Failed States," published in the Winter 1992–1993 issue of magazine. In this piece, they described a "disturbing new phenomenon" of sovereign states—such as , , , and —experiencing internal collapse after prolonged civil conflicts, rendering them unable to fulfill core governmental functions like maintaining order, providing services, or controlling territory. Helman and Ratner argued that these entities represented a deviation from the post-World War II norm of state , where even weak regimes maintained minimal authority, and proposed international "" models akin to UN trusteeships to rehabilitate them. Their analysis drew on empirical observations of the early 1990s, including 's anarchy following the 1991 ouster of , where clan warfare led to affecting over 1.5 million people by mid-1992. The article's publication coincided with heightened U.S. and international attention to post-Cold War humanitarian crises, influencing policy discourse as the term quickly entered academic and diplomatic lexicon. For instance, in August 1993, U.S. Ambassador to the UN explicitly labeled a "failed state" during a New York Times , framing U.S. intervention under Operation Restore Hope as a response to its institutional vacuum. Helman and Ratner's framework emphasized causal factors like ethnic fragmentation, economic decay, and breakdown, but critics later noted its Western-centric focus on state reconstruction, potentially overlooking endogenous resilience or non-state in affected regions. Prior to 1992, similar concepts existed under terms like "collapsed state" or "anomic state," but "failed state" gained traction for its concise encapsulation of sovereign erosion without implying total dissolution.

Evolution in Post-Cold War Era

The concept of the failed state emerged prominently in the early 1990s amid the dissolution of bipolar superpower rivalries, which had previously sustained many weak regimes through proxy support. Gerald B. Helman and Steven R. Ratner introduced the term in their 1992 Foreign Policy article, describing states incapacitated by civil strife, governmental breakdown, and economic collapse, unable to maintain sovereignty or deliver basic services. They highlighted cases like Somalia, where the central government's fall after President Siad Barre's ouster in January 1991 precipitated clan warfare, famine affecting over 300,000 deaths by 1992, and the need for international intervention. Similarly, Yugoslavia's fragmentation beginning in 1991, marked by ethnic conflicts in Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia, exemplified intrastate violence displacing state authority. This post-Cold War shift redirected analytical focus from interstate conflicts to internal state decay, as the absence of external patrons exposed underlying fragilities in postcolonial or artificially unified polities. The responded with operations like the 1992 in , which transitioned from to attempts, underscoring the novelty of addressing sovereign voids in a unipolar era. Academic and policy discourse, including the CIA's 1994 State Failure , sought predictive models based on indicators like onset and revolutionary wars, analyzing over 130 events from 1955 onward but emphasizing post-1991 accelerations. Instances such as Haiti's instability post-Duvalier in 1986, Rwanda's 1994 amid governmental collapse, and Liberia's from 1989 illustrated a pattern where ethnic divisions and resource scarcity compounded institutional erosion without Cold War buffers. By the early 2000s, the paradigm evolved to frame failed states as threats, particularly after the , 2001, attacks revealed Afghanistan's role under control (1996–2001) as a terrorist sanctuary. This securitization influenced U.S. policy, prioritizing preemptive stabilization in places like post-2003, though outcomes often highlighted intervention limits. Critics, noting historical precedents like pre-modern collapses, argued the concept's post-Cold War salience stemmed from heightened global interconnectedness amplifying spillover risks, such as refugee flows and piracy from Somalia's anarchy. Thus, the framework transitioned from descriptive taxonomy to prescriptive tool, integrating economic, , and conflict metrics for early warning.

Causal Factors

Internal Drivers of Failure

Internal drivers of state failure center on the erosion of governance capacity, where ruling elites prioritize personal or factional interests over the delivery of essential political goods such as , , and economic opportunity. This breakdown often begins with ineffective leadership that undermines institutional legitimacy, as seen in cases like under Siad Barre's 1969 coup, which centralized power through repression and destroyed public trust, paving the way for and state collapse by 1991. Similarly, in under , predatory rule from the 1960s onward hollowed out state institutions, leading to economic collapse and internal violence by the late 1990s. Corruption exacerbates these governance failures by enabling elite capture of resources, weakening bureaucratic functions, and fostering a cycle of institutional decay and public disillusionment. Empirical analysis of South African state capture scandals from 2015 onward reveals how patronage networks diverted public funds, correlating with stagnant Corruption Perceptions Index scores (41-45) and elevated positions on the Fragile States Index, demonstrating corruption's role in perpetuating fragility through eroded trust and policy gridlock. In broader African contexts, high corruption levels align with low tax revenues and governance indicators, as corrupt practices reduce state accountability and capacity to address citizen needs, per IMF data on fiscal inefficiencies. Neo-patrimonial systems, prevalent in post-colonial states, further entrench this by distributing resources via informal networks rather than merit-based institutions, as evidenced in Sierra Leone's fragmented patronage politics that fueled rebellion in the 1990s. Ethnic and communal divisions often amplify internal vulnerabilities when politicized by elites, transforming latent tensions into violent conflicts that shatter state monopolies on force. In Sudan, north-south ethnic cleavages, exacerbated by resource exclusion, sustained civil war from 1983 to 2005, resulting in over 2 million deaths and the effective loss of central authority in peripheral regions. Political exclusion of ethnic groups heightens rebellion risks, particularly in states with weak coalitional structures, where indivisible stakes over land or power escalate into indivisible conflicts, as modeled in analyses of African cases like and . These dynamics underscore how internal factionalism, absent effective mediation, directly precipitates the internal violence defining failure, rather than external shocks alone. Economic mismanagement compounds these issues by failing to generate , leading to demographic pressures and human flight that further delegitimize the state. In , elite and closed economic policies caused GDP to contract by 10% annually from 2000 to 2001, alongside exceeding 100% by 2007, driving mass and institutional paralysis. Rentier economies reliant on resource exports, such as Angola's oil-dependent model, incentivize greed-based insurgencies over broad development, weakening state resilience as revenues bypass accountable taxation. Indicators like declining GDP and rising rates empirically signal this trajectory, reflecting the causal primacy of internal policy choices in sustaining poverty traps.

External Influences and Their Limits

Colonial legacies represent a primary historical external influence on state fragility, as European powers imposed artificial borders that disregarded ethnic, linguistic, and cultural realities, fostering enduring internal divisions and weak institutional foundations. For instance, in , where over 40% of post-colonial borders were straight lines drawn during the 1884-1885 , these demarcations often amalgamated rival groups or split homogeneous populations, contributing to conflicts in states like and . Empirical analysis indicates that former British and Spanish colonies exhibit lower risks of state failure compared to those under French or rule, with the latter associated with extractive administrative practices that prioritized metropolitan interests over local capacity-building. However, such legacies do not predetermine failure, as internal governance choices post-independence—such as elite pacts or —mediate outcomes, underscoring the limits of attributing fragility solely to historical externalities. In the post-Cold War era, foreign has emerged as a significant external factor, often exacerbating fragility by enabling elites and undermining fiscal , with studies showing that aid inflows exceeding 10% of GDP correlate with reduced domestic revenue mobilization in recipient states. Between 1990 and 2020, fragile states received over $1 trillion in , yet this frequently prolonged conflicts by financing parallel structures or warlords, as evidenced in cases where aid bypassed formal institutions, leading to a 25% higher incidence of unintended negative consequences like . Sanctions and economic pressures from external actors, such as those imposed by the UN on in the 1990s, have similarly failed to coerce reforms, instead deepening economic collapse without addressing underlying patronage networks. These interventions reflect a causal realism wherein external resources alter incentives but cannot supplant the internal political will required for legitimate authority. Military interventions by external powers further illustrate these limits, as operations in (2001-2021) and (2003-2011) demonstrate that imposing models incurs high costs—over $2 trillion for the U.S. in Afghanistan alone—while yielding minimal sustainable stability due to insufficient local legitimacy and resistance to foreign impositions. Research on highlights that foreign involvement succeeds in under 20% of cases without an aligned internal coalition, often entrenching divisions rather than resolving them, as external actors prioritize short-term security over long-term institutional development. Neighboring states' spillovers, such as flows or arms smuggling, compound fragility but remain bounded by the host state's internal security apparatus failures. Ultimately, empirical data affirm that while externals can tip fragile equilibria toward collapse, reversal demands endogenous reforms, rendering interventions prone to failure absent domestic causal drivers like inclusive elites or mechanisms.

Measurement and Evaluation

Quantitative Indices

The Fragile States Index (FSI), published annually by the Fund for Peace, constitutes the foremost quantitative assessment of state fragility, evaluating vulnerability to violent conflict or societal collapse in 179 countries. Scores range from 0 to 120, with higher values denoting greater fragility; the index derives from 12 indicators across four categories—cohesion, economic, political, and social—each rated 0 to 10 based on triangulated public data sources, content analysis, and expert validation. These encompass security apparatus, factionalized elites, group grievance, economic decline, uneven economic development, human flight and brain drain, state legitimacy, public services, human rights and rule of law, demographic pressures, refugees and internally displaced persons, and external intervention. In the 2024 FSI, registered the highest fragility score of 111.3, reflecting persistent , , and governance breakdown since 1991. followed at 109.2, driven by ongoing and exacerbated by and foreign involvement, while scored 108.9 amid ethnic violence and economic collapse post-independence in 2011.
RankCountryScore
1111.3
2109.2
3108.9
4107.8
5106.5
6105.7
7104.9
8103.6
9102.4
10101.8
An alternative measure, the State Fragility Index from the Center for Systemic Peace, quantifies fragility through eight indicators evaluating governance effectiveness and legitimacy in security, political, economic, and social spheres for 167 countries with populations exceeding 500,000. Updated through 2018, it highlights elevated fragility in protracted conflict settings, though its static recent data limits contemporary utility compared to the FSI.

Qualitative Assessments

Qualitative assessments of state failure prioritize expert-driven, narrative evaluations of a government's performance in core functions, such as maintaining , delivering public services, and upholding legitimacy, often through in-depth case analyses rather than aggregated scores. These evaluations, typically conducted by political scientists, think tanks, and international organizations, focus on observable breakdowns in state-society relations, including the erosion of the state's monopoly on legitimate violence and the rise of alternative power structures like or militias. Robert Rotberg, a prominent scholar on the topic, describes failed states as those convulsed by internal violence, unable to provide essential political goods—such as , , and basic —to their populations, leading to predatory and human suffering. This approach contrasts with quantitative indices by allowing for contextual nuances, such as historical grievances or elite predation, which numerical data may overlook. Key qualitative indicators include the proliferation of non-state exerting control over , as seen in cases where central authorities cede ground to armed factions, resulting in fragmented . For instance, assessments highlight the growth of criminal violence and as the state weakens, with elites exploiting public resources for personal gain rather than societal benefit, further alienating citizens and prompting capital and human flight. Frameworks like Charles Call's "gap framework" evaluate discrepancies between a state's formal claims of —such as constitutional provisions for services—and its actual delivery, revealing failures through ethnographic or archival of unmet needs in health, education, and . These indicators are applied via comparative case studies, where experts weigh factors like demographic pressures and group grievances against institutional resilience, emphasizing causal chains from internal mismanagement to . Such assessments often draw from field reports by organizations like the , which document qualitative shifts, such as the inability to collect taxes or enforce laws, signaling a state's slide toward failure; however, they require caution due to potential observer biases in from conflict zones. Scholarly critiques note that while qualitative methods capture the human and institutional dimensions of failure—evident in events like the 1991 Somali regime collapse, where central authority dissolved amid clan warfare—they can be subjective, relying on interpretive judgments that vary by analyst perspective. Empirical grounding comes from cross-case patterns, such as repeated instances of and service vacuums preceding full breakdown, underscoring the primacy of internal governance deficits over external shocks. Overall, these evaluations inform policy by highlighting reversible failure stages, like partial territorial control losses, before irreversible collapse occurs.

Limitations and Debates in Metrics

Metrics for assessing state failure, such as the Fragile States Index (FSI), often combine quantitative data like demographic pressures with qualitative of media reports, yet these approaches face significant limitations in data reliability, particularly in environments where basic statistics are scarce or manipulated. For instance, fragile states frequently lack accurate data or records, leading to "partially blind" assessments that rely on proxies prone to error or from external observers. Additionally, the aggregation of disparate indicators—spanning , economic, and social dimensions—can mask causal nuances, as high scores in one category may compensate for strengths in others without reflecting holistic breakdown. Subjectivity further undermines these metrics, with FSI's use of expert judgments and media introducing variability tied to source selection and interpretive frameworks, often favoring Western media outlets that may overlook local dynamics or resilience factors. Critics argue this results in static rankings that fail to capture temporal fluctuations or endogenous recovery mechanisms, as evidenced by cases where states rebound unpredictably despite poor scores. Moreover, indices struggle with endogeneity, where fragility itself hampers , creating feedback loops that inflate perceived failure without verifying underlying institutional decay. Debates center on whether such metrics meaningfully distinguish "failed" from "fragile" states or merely impose a spectrum of that conflates symptoms with causes, potentially pathologizing non-Western models without empirical validation of universal benchmarks. Some scholars contend that fragility indices perpetuate a "fragility trap" , overemphasizing external vulnerabilities while underplaying internal agency or historical contingencies, as rankings often correlate more with colonial legacies than current policy failures. Others question their policy utility, noting that high-profile indices like the FSI trigger annual disputes over conceptual vagueness—"fragility" as a "" term laden with shifting meanings—yet continue influencing allocation despite of limited for . Proponents counter that, despite flaws, they provide comparable baselines for tracking trends, though reforms like disaggregated sub-indices or context-specific weights are proposed to enhance causal insight.

Consequences

Domestic Ramifications

In failed states, the erosion of central authority manifests domestically through the collapse of internal security mechanisms, enabling the proliferation of non-state armed actors such as militias and who contest control over territory and resources. This vacuum fosters chronic violence, with governments unable to monopolize force, resulting in elevated rates of , , and clan-based conflicts that displace populations and undermine social cohesion. For instance, in , ongoing clan militias and insurgent groups have perpetuated instability since the 1991 regime collapse, contributing to an estimated 3.86 million internally displaced persons as of 2022. Economically, failed states experience severe contraction due to the disintegration of fiscal institutions, including ineffective collection and disrupted , leading to , currency devaluation, and reliance on informal or illicit economies. The inability to maintain exacerbates this, halting agricultural output and industrial activity; Yemen's , for example, has caused a cumulative loss of $126 billion in potential since 2015 when benchmarked against a no-conflict scenario. Such breakdowns compound , with households facing acute food insecurity—evident in where 21.6 million people, over two-thirds of the population, required humanitarian assistance in 2023 amid disrupted markets and aid blockages. Humanitarian ramifications include rampant disease outbreaks, , and excess mortality from unaddressed crises, as public health and sanitation systems falter without state oversight. In , conflict-related factors drove an estimated 168,212 excess deaths between 2015 and 2019, reflecting a 17.8% surge in mortality rates attributable to , , and healthcare . Similarly, educational and judicial services evaporate, perpetuating illiteracy and ; Somalia's to deliver basic schooling has left generations without formal , entrenching cycles of dependency and skill deficits. These internal dynamics, rooted in governance deficits rather than transient shocks, amplify vulnerability to environmental stressors like droughts, which in turn trigger famines without coordinated state response. Socially, the fragmentation erodes trust in institutions and heightens ethnic or sectarian divisions, as localized power structures supplant national identity, often enforcing discriminatory practices or resource hoarding. and gender-based abuses surge amid lawlessness, with reports from indicating persistent issues despite nominal prohibitions, as enforcement mechanisms remain absent. Overall, these ramifications deprive citizens of , with global data indicating that since 1990, in such states have killed over 10 million people and affected hundreds of millions through service deprivation. Recovery hinges on reestablishing coercive capacity, though entrenched war economies often prolong the stasis.

International Spillover Effects

Failed states generate significant international externalities, primarily through the export of insecurity, mass population displacements, and economic disruptions that affect neighboring regions and global stability. These spillovers arise because the absence of effective central allows non-state actors to operate unchecked, facilitating transnational threats while imposing fiscal and social burdens on recipient countries. Empirical analyses indicate that such effects are not uniform but are amplified in cases involving or ideological , with costs estimated in tens of billions annually for affected economies. In the security domain, failed states serve as safe havens for terrorist organizations, enabling attacks beyond their borders, though the causal link to global terrorism is debated in quantitative studies. Somalia's collapse since 1991 has enabled Al-Shabaab to conduct operations extending to Kenya, Uganda, and Djibouti, including the 2010 Kampala bombings that killed 74 people, while Somali piracy peaked in 2011 with 237 attacks disrupting $7 billion in annual trade along key shipping routes. Similarly, Afghanistan's state failure post-2021 Taliban takeover has facilitated Al-Qaeda affiliates' planning, with U.S. intelligence reporting over 20 terrorist training camps operational by mid-2023, contributing to plots targeting Europe and South Asia. However, econometric research finds that failed states account for only a modest share of transnational terrorist incidents, with governance failures explaining less variance than ideological motivations or cross-border networks. Mass outflows represent another major spillover, straining host nations' resources and fueling secondary instabilities. From Syria's , a failed state , over 6.8 million s fled by 2023, primarily to (3.6 million) and (780,000), overwhelming and contributing to economic contractions of up to 2.5% GDP in host countries via reduced investment and public spending pressures. In , Afghan surges post-2021 exceeded 500,000 arrivals by 2023, correlating with heightened social tensions and policy shifts toward stricter border controls in nations like and . Neighboring states in , such as hosting 400,000 Sudanese s amid Sudan's 2023 conflict, face heightened risks of cross-border violence and resource competition, exacerbating cycles of fragility. These flows also amplify disease transmission risks, as seen with outbreaks in Ethiopian camps spilling into in 2022. Economically, spillovers manifest in trade disruptions, aid dependencies, and contagion of underdevelopment to proximate states. A failed state at imposes direct annual costs of approximately $28 billion in foregone output, with losses to neighbors from reduced commerce and investment exceeding $100 billion globally over decades, based on from 1970-2000. For instance, Yemen's collapse has halved intra-Gulf volumes since 2015 due to Houthi attacks on shipping, while Central African Republic's instability has depressed Chad's GDP growth by 1-2% annually through inflows and illicit arms flows. These effects underscore how state failure erodes regional value chains, though interventions like targeted sanctions can mitigate but not eliminate externalities.

Case Studies

Historical Exemplars

exemplifies state collapse in the post-Cold War era, with central authority disintegrating in January 1991 after the overthrow of President , whose 21-year rule from 1969 relied on , favoritism, and repressive policies that alienated key groups. -based militias vied for power, resulting in the dissolution of national institutions, loss of territorial control outside , and the emergence of warlords who fragmented the country into fiefdoms. services halted, exacerbating a that killed an estimated 300,000 people from 1991 to 1992 due to , disrupted , and blocked . Private networks supplanted state functions in and , underscoring the near-total vacuum of governance that persisted until fragile transitional structures in the 2000s. Lebanon's civil war from 1975 to 1990 marked another instance of state failure, driven by the erosion of the 1943 National Pact's confessional power-sharing system amid demographic shifts, economic disparities, and the influx of Palestinian militants following their 1970 expulsion from . Sectarian militias—Christian, Muslim, and —seized control of neighborhoods and regions, dividing into hostile zones and rendering the central government incapable of monopolizing violence or providing basic services. Foreign interventions, including Syrian occupation from 1976 and Israeli incursions in 1978 and 1982, further undermined , with over 120,000 deaths and massive displacement by war's end. Partial revival occurred via the Accord, which reformed power-sharing but required Syrian mediation to enforce, highlighting external dependencies in recovery. In , Sierra Leone's collapse in the 1990s stemmed from President ' (1968–1985) patronage networks and resource plunder, which weakened institutions and fueled the Revolutionary United Front's 1991 insurgency over diamond-rich territories. The government lost control of rural areas, enabling atrocities like amputations and child soldier recruitment, with the economy contracting amid until British-led intervention in 2000 and elections in 2002 restored minimal order. Similarly, Liberia's first , ignited in December 1989 by Charles Taylor's National Patriotic Front invading from Côte d'Ivoire against Samuel Doe's corrupt regime, led to state breakdown by 1990, with militias controlling factions and over 200,000 deaths before a 1996 peace accord. These cases illustrate common patterns: predatory elite rule precipitating internal fragmentation, territorial , and humanitarian crises absent effective state coercion.

Contemporary Instances

In 2024, the ranked as the world's most fragile state with a score of 111.3 out of 120, reflecting persistent clan-based conflicts, terrorist insurgencies by al-Shabaab, and the central government's limited control over territory outside . The index, produced annually by the Fund for Peace, measures indicators such as security threats, economic decline, and violations across 179 countries. followed closely, with its score exacerbated by the ongoing civil war that erupted in April 2023 between the (SAF) and (RSF), resulting in over 150,000 deaths and displacing 12 million people by mid-2025. , , and also exhibited hallmarks of state failure, including fractured governance, widespread violence, and inability to deliver basic services. Somalia exemplifies prolonged since the 1991 overthrow of , with no effective central authority until partial reconstitution in 2012, yet al-Shabaab controls rural areas and conducts attacks killing hundreds annually. In 2024, intensified fighting displaced nearly 650,000 civilians, while the government relies heavily on troops for security in the capital. Economic fragility persists, with dependence on remittances and , underscoring the state's to monopolize legitimate or foster development. Sudan's descent into in 2023 has dismantled state institutions, with the SAF and RSF battling for control of and resource-rich regions, leading to risks for 25 million people and the of public services like healthcare and banking. By early 2025, the SAF recaptured parts of the capital, but the conflict's ethnic dimensions and external backing—such as UAE support for RSF—have fragmented , preventing any unified . This power struggle, rooted in post-Bashir transitional failures, has elevated to near-top fragility rankings, with risks of permanent . Yemen's state apparatus has eroded amid the Houthi-Saudi since 2014, with the Houthis controlling the northwest including since 2015, while the internationally recognized government holds little beyond . In 2024, Houthi disruptions of shipping compounded humanitarian crises, affecting 18 million needing aid, as fragmented authorities fail to ensure or electricity. The conflict's persistence demonstrates causal links between internal divisions and foreign interventions, yielding a partition without formal state recovery. Afghanistan under Taliban rule since August 2021 maintains territorial control but exhibits failed state traits through economic isolation, with GDP contracting 27% post-takeover and over half the population facing acute hunger in 2024. The regime's enforcement of strict Islamic policies has triggered international non-recognition and aid restrictions, crippling public services and exacerbating refugee flows of millions. Despite suppressing major insurgencies, the Taliban's centralized yet ideologically rigid fails to address demographic pressures or decay, sustaining high fragility scores. Haiti neared total collapse in 2024, with gangs controlling over 80% of , assassinating officials, and blocking ports, amid a political vacuum following President Moïse's 2021 killing. Over 5,000 homicides occurred in 2024, displacing 1 million internally, as the unelected and police lack capacity against armed groups profiting from and . Historical mismanagement and have compounded , rendering the state unable to protect citizens or sustain , prompting Kenyan-led interventions under UN auspices.

Recovery Approaches

Endogenous Paths to Stabilization

Endogenous paths to stabilization emphasize internal actors, indigenous institutions, and self-generated processes to reestablish , , and economic functionality in failed states, contrasting with externally driven interventions that may undermine local legitimacy. These mechanisms often draw on pre-existing social structures, such as kinship networks or customary , to foster and power-sharing, enabling gradual reconstruction . Scholarly analyses indicate that such approaches succeed when internal elites prioritize inclusive bargaining over predation, though they remain rare due to entrenched factionalism and resource scarcity that typically prolong . A prominent example is Somaliland, which, after declaring independence from Somalia on May 18, 1991, amid the broader Somali state's disintegration, achieved relative stability through clan-mediated processes without formal international recognition or direct foreign aid. Clan elders, leveraging xeer (customary law) and tiered kinship structures like the Isaaq and Dir confederations, convened the Berbera Conference in May 1991 to invoke halaydhalay—a traditional rite to erase collective grievances—halting inter-clan violence and installing an interim council under President Abdirahman Ahmed Ali Tuur. This was followed by the Borama Conference from January to May 1993, where over 150 elders and 700 observers drafted the Somaliland Communities Security and Peace Charter and National Charter, establishing a hybrid bicameral legislature: the clan-based House of Elders (Guurti) for conflict mediation and the House of Representatives for modern legislative functions. These foundational pacts facilitated power-sharing proportional to clan demographics, reducing incentives for renewed warfare and enabling security provision through community militias transitioning into a national army. A 2001 constitutional garnered 97% approval for multi-party , paving the way for competitive elections in 2003 (local councils), 2005 (presidential), and 2010 (parliamentary), which were deemed free and fair by observers despite disputes. Economic recovery ensued via remittances—estimated at $1 billion annually—and exports, supporting a functioning currency () and infrastructure rehabilitation, such as Berbera Port, resolved through elder arbitration in 1992. By sustaining peace for over three decades amid Somalia's ongoing fragmentation, Somaliland demonstrates how endogenous hybrid governance—blending customary inclusivity with formal institutions—can yield durable stability, though challenges like and unrecognized status persist. Empirical evidence underscores the causal role of such local agency: studies of fragile states highlight that customary organizations, when adapted for state-like functions, outperform imposed top-down models by aligning with societal norms and minimizing resistance. However, success hinges on contextual factors like relatively homogeneous demographics or external isolation that compels internal cooperation, as in Somaliland's marginalization from Mogadishu's chaos; in more polarized cases, endogenous efforts often falter without supplementary external pressure, explaining their infrequency.

Exogenous Interventions and Their Outcomes

Exogenous interventions in failed states typically encompass foreign military operations, deployments, programs, and initiatives aimed at restoring , security, and economic stability from external actors. Empirical analyses indicate that such efforts frequently underperform, with success rates below 30% in achieving long-term stabilization since the post-Cold War era, often due to insufficient local legitimacy, mismatched objectives with ground realities, and like dependency or . A review of 174 interventions found that supporting powers rarely achieve their strategic goals, as local power vacuums persist or exacerbate factional conflicts. Military interventions, such as or operations, have shown particularly poor outcomes in failed states. In , the U.S.-led in October 2001 toppled the but failed to establish a durable despite over $2 trillion in expenditures and 20 years of involvement; the regained control by August 2021, underscoring how exogenous force struggles against entrenched tribal and ideological resistances without endogenous buy-in. Similarly, in post-2003, the removal of led to state collapse and ISIS's emergence by 2014, with foreign-imposed institutions unable to counter sectarian divisions, resulting in over 200,000 civilian deaths and ongoing fragility. These cases illustrate a pattern where initial military gains erode due to causal disconnects, such as ignoring pre-existing social contracts and overestimating the transplantability of Western governance models. Peacekeeping missions yield mixed results, succeeding in reducing conflict recurrence by up to 80% in observer roles but faltering in enforcement mandates amid state failure. operations in the of Congo since 1999, involving over 20,000 troops at peak, have contained violence in specific zones but failed to rebuild institutions, with ongoing activity and 6 million displacements as of 2023, attributed to mandate overload and host government corruption. In Somalia, the UNOSOM II mission from 1993 to 1995 aimed to disarm clans and restore order but collapsed amid the 1993 Mogadishu battle, leading to resurgence and no sustained governance; subsequent AMISOM efforts since 2007 reduced Al-Shabaab territorial control but depended on troops, collapsing post-2021 drawdown into renewed instability. Empirical studies confirm peacekeeping's micro-level benefits, like local economic activity boosts in , but macro-state recovery requires complementary endogenous reforms absent in most failed contexts. Foreign , often decoupled from military efforts, exacerbates state failure by distorting incentives and prolonging conflict rather than fostering self-reliance. In , over $13 billion in aid since the 2010 earthquake failed to prevent governance collapse, with and dependency leading to gang dominance by 2024; World Bank data shows aid inflows exceeding 20% of GDP annually correlated with institutional stagnation, not growth. Analyses of fragile states reveal aid's tendency to parallel structures, undermining formal , as seen in where Saudi-led interventions since 2015, coupled with $20 billion in aid, sustained Houthi resilience and humanitarian catastrophe affecting 21 million people. While targeted counter-terrorism assistance can yield tactical wins, broad aid programs lack causal mechanisms for recovery without rigorous conditionality, which donors often evade due to geopolitical pressures. Overall, exogenous approaches succeed rarely, primarily in narrowly scoped, consent-based scenarios like observer missions, but falter when imposing comprehensive reforms amid weak local capacities.

Conceptual Critiques

Theoretical Shortcomings

The concept of the failed state suffers from profound definitional ambiguity, with scholars offering disparate criteria ranging from the inability to provide basic services to outright territorial collapse, leading to inconsistent classifications across studies. For instance, Robert I. Rotberg distinguishes failed states by their failure to deliver political goods like and economic management, yet this framework conflates partial dysfunction with total breakdown without specifying thresholds for each function. Similarly, the State Failure Task Force expanded its dataset to include 114 cases from 1955 to 1998, incorporating anomalies like brief Chinese upheavals, which dilutes analytical precision for geopolitical expediency. This vagueness stems from an implicit Eurocentric bias, imposing a Weberian ideal of rational-legal as the universal benchmark for state legitimacy, while disregarding alternative forms prevalent in non-Western contexts, such as patrimonial systems that sustain order through networks. In post-colonial states, legitimacy often derives from personalist rule rather than impersonal institutions, yet failed state theory pathologizes these as inherently predatory without empirical validation that Weberian models are prerequisites for development or stability. Historical evidence indicates that processes are inherently violent and contested, not linear progress toward a Western endpoint, rendering the "failure" label anachronistic for societies where modern statehood was externally imposed via . Theoretically, the paradigm inadequately captures causal dynamics, overattributing breakdown to endogenous predation or resource curses while underemphasizing exogenous shocks like colonial legacies or global economic pressures; for example, econometric analyses of onset, such as those by and Anke Hoeffler, yield fragile correlations dependent on outlier sensitivity, failing to predict resilience in states like amid similar stressors. It also neglects functional variation, as seen in Colombia's sustained macroeconomic despite insurgent control over rural areas, challenging the binary of success versus failure. Moreover, societal-level adaptations—private provision of security or ad hoc economic ordering—are dismissed as rather than emergent polycentric , obscuring how non-state actors can mitigate state absence without implying total disorder. A core flaw lies in the securitized framing, which posits failed states as inherent global threats, yet empirical reviews find scant evidence linking most such entities to transnational risks like or proliferation; cases like or the of Congo generate localized instability without external spillover, while Afghanistan's pre-failure harboring of was exceptional, not paradigmatic. This overemphasis reflects methodological laxity, with task forces retrofitting definitions to datasets, yielding arbitrary lists that prioritize policy narratives over falsifiable hypotheses, thereby inflating the concept into a rhetorical "" for justifying interventions despite historical precedents of costly, low-yield engagements.

Policy and Ideological Misuses

The "failed state" designation has frequently been leveraged in to legitimize military and interventions, portraying breakdowns as acute threats to that demand external remediation. In the aftermath of the , 2001, terrorist attacks, U.S. policy documents, such as the 2002 National Security Strategy, highlighted failed states as potential sanctuaries for non-state actors like , rationalizing the 2001 invasion of —deemed a failed state under rule—and the 2003 Iraq invasion, where Saddam Hussein's regime was critiqued for its institutional frailties despite not fitting classic failure indicators like territorial loss. This framing shifted focus from interstate threats to intrastate dysfunction, enabling expansive interpretations of preemptive action. Empirical outcomes of such policies underscore their limitations, as interventions in labeled failed states have often prolonged instability rather than resolving it. In , a $2.3 trillion U.S.-led effort from 2001 to 2021 aimed at reconstructing central authority collapsed with the Taliban's rapid takeover in August 2021, leaving the country more fragmented than pre-intervention. Similarly, post-2003 devolved into sectarian and the emergence of ISIS by 2014, with state institutions undermined by de-Baathification and inadequate security sector reform, resulting in over 200,000 civilian deaths by 2018. Libya's 2011 NATO-backed ouster of , predicated on humanitarian concerns amid state erosion, yielded a , ongoing militia conflicts, and , with GDP per capita halving by 2020. These cases illustrate how the label facilitates rapid escalation without robust of local power structures, often exacerbating the very failures it seeks to address. Ideologically, the failed state paradigm embeds a normative Western model of sovereignty—consolidated, liberal, and Weberian—implicitly deeming divergent political orders as pathological, which critics like Susan L. Woodward identify as an that mischaracterizes adaptive, if turbulent, state transformations as outright collapses. This underpins doctrines like the (R2P), adopted by the UN in 2005, which has been selectively applied to justify interventions in non-Western contexts while overlooking comparable dysfunctions in allied states. For instance, the term's invocation in since 2015 has aligned with Saudi-led coalitions framing Houthi advances as state failure meriting bombardment and blockade, yet empirical data shows civilian casualties exceeding 150,000 by 2023 without restoring central control. Such uses risk neocolonial undertones, prioritizing external blueprints over endogenous legitimacy, as evidenced by the 80% failure rate of post-conflict missions since 1989 per World Bank assessments. In domestic policy contexts, the label has been misapplied ideologically to critique adversaries or rally support for unrelated agendas, diluting its analytical value. Noam Chomsky, for example, has characterized the United States as a failed state since the early 2000s, citing domestic inequalities and foreign policy overreach, though this inverts the concept's state-centric focus without empirical parallels to territorial disintegration. Conversely, in Haiti, the 2024 escalation of gang control prompted U.S. and Kenyan-led intervention proposals under failed state rhetoric, obscuring root causes like elite corruption and historical interventions while advancing geopolitical aims in the Caribbean. Academic sources advancing these critiques, often from postcolonial frameworks, exhibit systemic biases toward externalizing blame, yet the pattern of interventionary shortfalls—sustained by metrics like the Fragile States Index's limited predictive power for recovery—validates scrutiny of the term's policy deployment.

References

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