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Larry Diamond
Larry Diamond
Larry Diamond
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Larry Jay Diamond (born October 2, 1951)[1] is an American political sociologist and scholar in the field of democracy studies. He is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, a public policy think tank on the Stanford campus working to advance freedom and prosperity, and the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), Stanford University's main center for research on international issues. At FSI Diamond served as the director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) from 2009 to 2015.[2] He was succeeded in that role by Francis Fukuyama[3] and then Kathryn Stoner.[4]

Key Information

Diamond served as a founding co-editor of the National Endowment for Democracy's Journal of Democracy  from 1990 until fall 2022.[5] As of August 2025, he co-chairs Hoover’s Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region Project (with James O. Ellis, Jr.). At FSI, he founded the program on Arab Reform and Development and the Israel Studies Program, and he co-founded and leads its Global Digital Policy Incubator.[6][7]

Early life and education

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Diamond was born in Los Angeles. He earned a B.A. in Political Organization and Behavior from Stanford in 1974, where he was active in student politics and journalism and co-chaired committees on admissions and teaching quality.[8] From 1974 to 1975 he conducted interviews in multiple countries on democratic change and development. He received an M.A. from the Food Research Institute in 1978 and a Ph.D. in Sociology in 1980 at Stanford, working with Alex Inkeles and Seymour Martin Lipset.[9][10]

Career

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Diamond taught sociology at Vanderbilt University from 1980 to 1985, researching Nigeria’s Second Republic and spending a year in Kano as a Fulbright Lecturer.[11] His work on corruption and electoral fraud in Nigeria informed later publications, including In Search of Democracy (2016) and Transition Without End (1997).[12]

He joined Stanford’s Hoover Institution in 1985. With Juan Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset he co-led a 26-country study on democratization, resulting in the Democracy in Developing Countries book series (1988–1995). This laid the groundwork for the Journal of Democracy, which Diamond co-founded with Marc F. Plattner. Together they also co-directed the International Forum for Democratic Studies at the National Endowment for Democracy (1994–2009).[13]

Diamond has collaborated with Taiwan-based scholars, beginning with a 1995 international conference on democratization. He co-developed the Asian Barometer Survey and has written on Taiwan’s political development, favoring strong U.S. support for Taiwan’s democracy and security. He has also co-led Hoover’s “China’s Sharp Power” projects, producing studies on China’s influence operations and semiconductor security.[14]

He was the dissertation adviser for Regina Ip, former Secretary for Security of Hong Kong during her years at Stanford.[15]

In 2022, Diamond joined Yermak-McFaul Expert Group on Russian Sanctions as an expert to work on elaborating and imposing international sanctions against Russia which invaded Ukraine.[16]

Post–2003 Iraq

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In early 2004, Diamond was a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq.[11]

His book Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, published in 2005, was one of the first public critical analyses of America's post-invasion of Iraq strategy.[17]

Views on democracy

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Although a strong proponent of democracy, Diamond has emphasized that its survival depends on effective and accountable governance, respect for the rule of law, and responsiveness to citizens’ needs. In his 2023 Seymour Martin Lipset Lecture, later published in the Journal of Democracy (2024),[18] he identified power, performance, and legitimacy as central to democracy’s endurance.[19] He has argued that weak economic or political performance, such as corruption, crime, or insecurity, can erode public support, while effective governance can strengthen democratic commitment.[20]

Diamond’s writings, including Developing Democracy (1999), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), and Ill Winds (2019), have highlighted both the promise of democracy and the challenges it faces.[21] He has pointed to threats from authoritarian powers such as China and Russia, as well as democratic backsliding within established democracies. His work defines democracy broadly, requiring free and fair elections, political freedom, and pluralism.[22] In a 2002 Journal of Democracy article, he warned about “hybrid regimes” or “electoral authoritarian” systems that mask autocratic practices behind democratic appearances. He has also criticized the failure to recognize such trends in countries including Russia, Venezuela, Hungary, and Turkey. His collaborative 2004 article with Leonardo Morlino, followed by a 2005 edited volume, offered a framework for assessing the “quality of democracy.”[23]

From his early studies of Nigeria’s First Republic, Diamond has underscored corruption, waste, and abuse of power as key causes of democratic breakdowns. He has argued that while economic development supports democracy, it is not an absolute requirement. Cases such as India, Costa Rica, and Botswana show that democracy can emerge in lower-income settings when supported by good governance, steady growth, limited inequality, democratic values, and a strong civil society.[24] He has warned that persistent misgovernance can push people toward authoritarian alternatives, particularly in “predatory states” where corruption is pervasive and wealth is extracted through exploitation rather than productive growth. In resource-rich countries, he has suggested distributing oil revenues directly to citizens to promote accountability.[22]

In policy discussions, including contributions to USAID reports, Diamond has called for tying foreign assistance to the quality of governance. He has supported the principle of “selectivity,” as seen in the Millennium Challenge Corporation, which conditions aid on democratic governance, investment in social development, and economic openness.[22] He has also urged the United States and other democracies to devote more resources to strengthening democratic institutions, media, and civil society abroad, along with promoting democratic values in foreign policy.[25]

Research

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A central theme in Diamond's work is democratic consolidation, examined in Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999) and later essays. He has argued that stable democracy depends on accountability, the rule of law, effective governance, and public trust. He has also written on hybrid or “electoral authoritarian” regimes, where elections coexist with repression, and with Leonardo Morlino developed a framework for assessing the “quality of democracy.”[26]

His regional studies cover Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. He has analyzed Nigeria’s democratic breakdowns, co-edited volumes on Taiwan’s democratic transition, and examined East Asian political culture through the Asian Barometer Survey, which he co-founded.[27] In 2024 he co-edited The Troubling State of India’s Democracy, addressing challenges to institutional independence in India.[28]

Diamond has also studied the international dimensions of democratization. He has argued that foreign aid and policy should encourage accountable governance and has critiqued externally driven regime change, as in his book Squandered Victory (2005). He has called for greater support of democratic institutions, civil society, and media worldwide.[29]

Since 2008, Diamond has written about the “global democratic recession,” linking democratic decline to authoritarian resurgence, polarization, and weakening institutions.[30] His book Ill Winds (2019) explored these themes, and his 2025 co-edited volume with Edward Foley and Richard Pildes addressed electoral reforms such as ranked choice voting in the United States.[31]

Teaching and public service

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Diamond was named Stanford's "Teacher of the Year" in May 2007.[32] At the June 2007 commencement ceremonies he was awarded the Dinkelspiel Award for Distinctive Contributions to Undergraduate Education. Among the many reasons for Diamond to receive this award it was cited that he fostered dialogue between Jewish and Muslim students.[33]

In addition to his academic work, Diamond has served on advisory boards and task forces for the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Freedom House "Freedom in the World" survey, and the Council for a Community of Democracies.[3] He is also a member of the Pacific Council on International Policy and the American Political Science Association.[2]

Awards and fellowships

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Diamond's work has been supported by fellowships and grants from the Smith Richardson Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation, the National Endowment for Democracy, and the Agency for International Development. He was a Fulbright Fellow in Nigeria in 1982–83 and a POSCO Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu.[1][9]

Selected affiliations

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  • Member, Editorial Board, Journal of Democracy
  • Member, Editorial Board, Current History
  • Board member, Voices of a Democratic Egypt
  • Member, Conference Group on Taiwan Studies
  • Faculty Advisory Board, Haas Center for Public Service

Publications

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Books

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Library resources
By Larry Diamond

As author

[edit]
  • Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, Penguin Press, 2019 ISBN 978-0525560623
  • In Search of Democracy, Routledge, 2016
  • The Spirit of Democracy, Times Books, 2008
  • Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, Owl Books, 2005, ISBN 0-8050-7868-1
  • Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999
  • Promoting Democracy in the 1990s, Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, 1995
  • Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria, Syracuse University Press, 1988
  • Milani, Abbas; Diamond, Larry Jay (2015). Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran: Challenging the Status Quo. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers. ISBN 9781626371477.

As editor

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  • Political Culture and Democracy in Developing Countries
  • Diamond, Larry; Plattner, Marc F.; Walker, Christopher, eds. (2016). Authoritarianism Goes Global: The Challenge to Democracy. Johns Hopkins University Press. ISBN 9781421419985.
  • Democracy in Decline?, with Marc F. Plattner
  • Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab World, with Marc F. Plattner
  • Will China Democratize?, with Andrew J. Nathan and Marc F. Plattner (2013, containing articles of the Journal of Democracy, written between 1986 and 2013)
  • Democracy in East Asia: A New Century, with Yun-han Chu and Marc F. Plattner
  • Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, with Marc F. Plattner
  • Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani
  • Democracy in Developing Countries, four-volume series, with Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset

Essays and articles

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References

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[edit]
Revisions and contributorsEdit on WikipediaRead on Wikipedia

Larry Diamond

View on Grokipedia
from Grokipedia

Larry Diamond (born October 2, 1951) is an American political sociologist renowned for his expertise in comparative , , and international efforts to promote liberal governance. As the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the and the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, he analyzes empirical patterns in , authoritarian resilience, and the institutional prerequisites for stable self-rule, often emphasizing causal factors like strength, , and rule-of-law enforcement over ideological narratives. Diamond also serves as a by courtesy in and at Stanford, where he earned his B.A. in 1974, M.A. in 1978, and Ph.D. in sociology in 1980. A founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, Diamond has shaped scholarly discourse through decades of publications tracking the "third wave" of and its subsequent reversals, including influential essays on electoral authoritarianism and the paradoxes of partial democratic reforms. His major books, such as Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), which outlines sequences of institutional sequencing for new , and Ill Winds: Saving from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency (2019), which diagnoses threats from revisionist powers and domestic decay, draw on cross-national data to advocate evidence-based strategies for bolstering constitutional orders. In 2004, he advised the in on governance reconstruction, an experience that informed his critical assessment in Squandered Victory (2005) of U.S. policy failures, including inadequate security prioritization and overreliance on expatriate elites, which undermined post-invasion stabilization efforts. Diamond's work underscores the empirical limits of externally imposed transitions absent local buy-in and robust measures, while cautioning against complacency in established facing populist challenges and geopolitical erosion.

Biography

Early Life and Education

Larry Diamond received a B.A. in political organization and behavior from in 1974. He then earned an M.A. from Stanford's Food Research Institute in 1978, followed by a Ph.D. in in 1980, completing all of his higher education at the university. These degrees laid the foundation for his subsequent focus on and democratic transitions, blending sociological analysis with political inquiry.

Professional Career

Academic and Research Positions

Diamond served as Assistant Professor of Sociology at Vanderbilt University from 1980 to 1985. In 1982–1983, he held a Fulbright Teaching Fellowship as Visiting Lecturer in Sociology at Bayero University in Kano, Nigeria. At Stanford University, Diamond is Professor by Courtesy of Political Science and Sociology, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy, including an online course on comparative democratic development. He is the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), focusing research on global trends in freedom and democracy as well as policies to advance them. As William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, he co-chairs the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Program on the U.S., China, and the World. Diamond directed the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford's FSI from 2009 to 2015, having previously coordinated its Program from 2002 to 2009. He served as Founding Co-Director of the International Forum for Democratic Studies from 1994 to 2009. In research program leadership, he was Principal Investigator of the Democracy Program at CDDRL from 2006 to 2017; currently, he leads the Arab Reform and Program (since 2010) and the Global Digital Policy Incubator (since 2017), both at CDDRL. Among visiting research positions, Diamond conducted a study on in as a at from 1997 to 1998, supported by Taiwan's National Science Council. In 1999, he was POSCO at the East-West Center in .

Editorial and Institutional Roles

Diamond served as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, published by the , from its inception in 1990 until fall 2022, a tenure spanning 32 years during which the quarterly journal became a leading forum for scholarship on democratic theory, transitions, and challenges. In this role, co-edited with Marc F. Plattner, Diamond shaped the publication's focus on empirical analysis of democratization processes and global democratic trends, contributing to volumes that addressed topics such as democratic recessions and institutional reforms. Institutionally, Diamond holds the position of William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the at , where he conducts research on threats to , U.S. toward autocratic regimes, and strategies for promoting democratic . He is also the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global at Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), supporting interdisciplinary work on , development, and the through programs like the Center on Democracy, Development, and the (CDDRL), which he co-directed from 2009 to 2017. As senior consultant to the International Forum for Democratic Studies at the (NED), Diamond advises on research initiatives examining authoritarian resilience and civic resistance, drawing on NED's mission to foster democratic institutions worldwide since its founding in 1983. These roles have positioned him at the intersection of academia and policy, influencing debates on democratic through affiliations with nonpartisan think tanks emphasizing evidence-based advocacy over ideological prescriptions.

Policy and Advisory Engagements

Diamond served as a consultant to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) from 2001 to 2003, contributing to the agency's report Foreign Aid in the National Interest, which advocated for aligning foreign assistance with U.S. strategic priorities including democracy promotion. He also held principal investigator roles for USAID-funded projects, including the "Project on Democracy in Developing Countries" (1987–1989) and "Economy, Society, and Democracy" (1990–1993), which supported research informing policy on democratic transitions in aid recipient nations. From 2004 to 2007, Diamond was a member of USAID's Advisory Commission on Voluntary Foreign Aid, providing guidance on public-private partnerships for and democracy-building initiatives. In 2004–2005, he participated in the ' Independent Task Force on U.S. Policy Toward Reform in the , which recommended strategies for advancing political amid regional stability concerns. Diamond has advised and lectured for international organizations such as the World Bank, the , and the U.S. State Department on and issues, often emphasizing empirical evidence from democratic transitions to shape policy recommendations. He continues to consult on global democracy programs, drawing from his academic expertise to influence aid allocation and institutional reform efforts.

Involvement in Iraq Reconstruction

Role in Post-2003 Efforts

In the fall of 2003, professor Larry Diamond received a direct request from Advisor to join the (CPA) in as an advisor on post-invasion reconstruction. He accepted and served from January to April 2004 as Senior Advisor on Governance, a position focused on leveraging his expertise in democratic transitions to guide the CPA's political rebuilding efforts amid escalating and institutional chaos. Diamond's responsibilities centered on advising CPA administrator Paul Bremer and his team on strategies for establishing legitimate Iraqi governance, including recommendations for rapid power transfer to elected bodies, de-Baathification reforms, and fostering civil-military relations to stabilize the transitional authority. Operating from the heavily fortified , he engaged in daily consultations with U.S. officials, Iraqi exiles, and emerging local leaders to address immediate challenges like sectarian tensions and the need for inclusive political processes ahead of the June 2004 sovereignty handover. His work emphasized empirical lessons from prior democratizations, such as prioritizing security and elite pacts, though these were often constrained by CPA policy decisions and insufficient troop levels—approximately 130,000 U.S. forces at the time, deemed inadequate by Diamond for effective . During this period, Diamond contributed to internal CPA deliberations on constitutional interim frameworks and electoral timelines, advocating for mechanisms to build in nascent institutions amid widespread and that had damaged over 80% of Baghdad's infrastructure by early 2004. He also supported initiatives to revive , drawing on his prior research to propose targeted aid for non-governmental organizations, though implementation was hampered by bureaucratic silos within the CPA and the State Department's understaffing, with only about 1,200 personnel managing a nation of 25 million. Diamond's tenure ended shortly before the CPA dissolved, having provided on-the-ground insights into the causal links between security failures and democratic setbacks, as later detailed in his firsthand accounts.

Analysis of Failures and Lessons

Diamond's tenure as a senior advisor to the (CPA) from January to April 2004 exposed him to the operational shortcomings of the U.S.-led reconstruction, which he later detailed in Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring to (2005). A primary failure was the post-invasion security vacuum, exacerbated by the rapid dissolution of Iraqi state institutions without adequate replacement; the CPA's Order No. 1 on May 16, 2003, implemented sweeping de-Baathification, purging an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 members from government roles, while Order No. 2 on the same day disbanded the Iraqi army, releasing 400,000 soldiers into unemployment and fueling insurgency recruitment. These decisions, made before Diamond's arrival but persisting under CPA administrator L. Paul Bremer, alienated Sunnis and created a power void exploited by militias and affiliates, leading to over 10,000 insurgent attacks by mid-2004. Compounding this, the U.S. committed insufficient ground forces—peaking at around 150,000 troops for a of 27 million—adopting a "light footprint" doctrine that prioritized quick withdrawal over stabilization, contrary to historical precedents like post-World War II occupations requiring troop ratios of 20 per 1,000 civilians. Diamond critiqued the ideological overconfidence in rapid , ignoring Iraq's sectarian cleavages (Shia 60%, Sunni 20%, 15-20%) and absence of traditions, which Bremer's centralized model failed to address through delayed local elections and exclusionary national processes. The CPA's insularity, with limited speakers (fewer than 20 at senior levels) and reliance on exiles like , undermined legitimacy, as evidenced by the failure to co-opt tribal leaders or neutralize Muqtada al-Sadr's , which launched uprisings in April 2004 during Diamond's time there. From these experiences, Diamond derived key lessons for post-conflict state-building, emphasizing security as a prerequisite: future interventions must deploy adequate forces with robust to establish order before political reforms, avoiding the error of sequencing ahead of stability. He advocated decentralizing authority via early municipal elections to build legitimacy, as national processes in 's 2005 Transitional Administrative Law sidelined local buy-in and empowered Iran-backed Shia parties. is essential, with multilateral involvement (e.g., UN or ) to share burdens and enhance perceived neutrality, unlike the CPA's that isolated the U.S. amid 85% global opposition to the by 2004 polls. Finally, Diamond stressed realistic assessments of societal preconditions, warning against imposing or power-sharing without addressing underlying authoritarian legacies and ethnic distrust, as 's 2005 entrenched sectarian quotas that perpetuated violence, with civilian deaths exceeding 100,000 by 2007. These insights, while drawn from Diamond's advocacy for , underscore causal realities: exogenous without endogenous demand and security guarantees courts prolonged instability.

Scholarly Contributions to Democracy Studies

Theories of Democratization

Diamond contributed to the analysis of the "third wave" of , a period of global democratic expansion from the mid-1970s to the early , by emphasizing not only initial transitions from but also the subsequent challenges of sustaining and deepening . Building on Samuel Huntington's framework, he argued that this wave produced many electoral but few consolidated ones, with reversals occurring through coups, erosions, or incomplete reforms. In his developmental theory of democracy, outlined in Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Diamond posited that successful requires progression beyond mere electoral competition to institutional maturity and behavioral adherence to democratic norms. He defined consolidation as the point where major political actors, including elites and organizations, internalize as "the only game in town," rejecting authoritarian alternatives even amid crises. This process demands enhanced (protection of rights and opposition), accountability (via effective legislatures and parties), responsiveness (through and decentralization), and mass inclusion, often facilitated by and adaptive state institutions like impartial judiciaries. Diamond highlighted hybrid regimes—systems blending democratic facades like elections with authoritarian controls—as a persistent barrier to full , complicating regime classification and stalling the third wave's momentum. In "Thinking About Hybrid Regimes" (2002), he described these as "elections without ," where incumbents manipulate outcomes through media control, , or coercion, preventing genuine power alternation. Such regimes, prevalent in post-third wave contexts like parts of and , erode public trust and invite further authoritarian backsliding unless countered by strong opposition coalitions and international pressure. Rejecting deterministic prerequisites like high or cultural homogeneity, Diamond maintained that democracy's emergence hinges primarily on elite pacts and contingent factors such as external shocks or choices, though consolidation correlates empirically with moderate (around $4,000–$6,000 GDP ) and rule-of-law capacities. He stressed causal mechanisms like vibrant civil societies and horizontal accountability to prevent , warning that without them, transitions yield unstable pseudodemocracies prone to , as observed in over 20 countries by the early .

Empirical Research on Democratic Transitions

Diamond's empirical analysis of democratic transitions centers on the "third wave" of democratization, initiated by Portugal's on April 25, 1974, which facilitated regime changes in over 80 countries by the early 1990s through processes of negotiation, breakdown of authoritarianism, or external pressure. Drawing on aggregated data from sources such as Freedom House's annual freedom ratings (scored 1-7, with 1-2.5 indicating "free") and the Polity IV dataset, he quantifies the expansion of electoral democracies from 39 in 1974 (27.5% of countries with populations over 1 million) to 117 by 1996 (57% of such countries). This growth reflected regional diffusion effects, where successful transitions in (e.g., in 1974, in 1977) and (e.g., in 1979, in 1980) encouraged emulation, though empirical patterns showed clustering rather than uniform global progress. However, Diamond's data reveal significant limitations in transition quality and sustainability, with 22 countries reverting from "free" status between 1974 and 1991 due to coups, erosions, or hybrid regimes. By the mid-1990s, while electoral democracies proliferated—reaching 76 liberal democracies, 41 electoral nonliberal ones, 34 pseudodemocracies, and 40 authoritarian regimes among approximately 151 countries holding multiparty elections—the proportion of "free" states among self-proclaimed democracies declined from 85.5% in to 65% in 1995, per metrics. This gap between electoral form and substantive stemmed from persistent authoritarian enclaves, weak , and incomplete civil- pacts, as evidenced in cases like Haiti's followed by military ouster in 1991. Quantitative correlations in Diamond's work highlight socioeconomic prerequisites for successful transitions: higher per capita income levels strongly associated with liberal outcomes, while low development, inequality, and fragile civil societies elevated breakdown risks, as seen in African transitions post-1991 (e.g., flawed elections in 10 countries including and ). He supplements these with surveys and reports to argue that transitions falter without institutional consolidation, noting stagnation in counts after the early amid rising pseudodemocracies. Empirical trends thus underscore that while international demonstration and economic pressures catalyzed initial shifts, endogenous factors like pacts and determined durability, challenging overly optimistic paradigms of inevitable consolidation.
YearNumber of Democracies (Total)% Free (Freedom House)Key Transition Trend
197439~29% (1972 baseline)Onset of third wave; focus
19907685.5% of democraciesPeak expansion in ,
199511765% of democraciesStagnation; rise in electoral but illiberal regimes
1996117N/AGlobal electoral democracies plateau

Key Publications

Major Books

Diamond's Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation, published in 1999 by Johns Hopkins University Press, analyzes the institutional and societal factors required for new democracies to achieve stable consolidation, drawing on comparative case studies from , , and to identify common pitfalls such as weak and elite pacts. The book builds on earlier waves of research, emphasizing the role of and in preventing reversals to . In Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq (2005, Times Books), Diamond critiques the U.S.-led reconstruction efforts post-2003 invasion, arguing that inadequate planning, insufficient troop levels, and failure to secure basic order undermined prospects for democratic institution-building, based on his senior advisor role with the Coalition Provisional Authority. He details specific errors like de-Baathification policies that alienated Sunni populations and delayed elections, leading to insurgency and sectarian violence. The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free Societies Throughout the World (2008, Times Books) explores the global diffusion of democratic norms since the 1970s third wave, highlighting cultural and ideological prerequisites for successful transitions while cautioning against over-optimism in regions lacking civic traditions. synthesizes empirical data from over 100 countries to argue that requires not just elections but robust and mechanisms. In Search of Democracy (2015, Routledge) compiles essays on democratic erosion, hybrid regimes, and promotion strategies, using post-Arab Spring examples to assess why some transitions succeed while others revert to authoritarianism, with data from indices like showing a plateau in global democratic gains around 2006. Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency (2019, Penguin Press) warns of a "democratic recession" since the early , citing evidence from Polity IV scores declining in 25 countries and attributing threats to authoritarian models from and , alongside domestic U.S. polarization. Diamond proposes countermeasures like strengthening alliances and electoral reforms, grounded in longitudinal data on regime types.

Selected Articles and Essays

Diamond's essay "Elections Without Democracy: Thinking About Hybrid Regimes," published in the Journal of Democracy in April 2002, analyzes regimes that hold elections while lacking genuine democratic competition, accountability, or freedoms, such as those in , , , , , and at the time; it argues these "hybrid regimes" represent a distinct category between full democracies and outright , complicating global regime classification. The piece, cited over 4,500 times, emphasizes how such systems erode democratic substance despite formal electoral processes. In "Rethinking : Toward ," appearing in the Journal of Democracy in July 1994, Diamond examines the role of in stabilizing new democracies, contending that robust associational life fosters accountability, tolerance, and institutional trust essential for preventing democratic backsliding; the essay critiques overly state-centric views of consolidation and highlights empirical cases from post-transition states. With more than 3,100 citations, it underscores 's causal importance in empirical transitions. The article "Is the Third Wave Over?" in the Journal of Democracy (July 1996) assesses the stagnation of global democratization following Samuel Huntington's "third wave," noting stalled progress in pseudodemocracies and authoritarian holdouts while identifying pockets of opportunity; Diamond warns of reversals in , , and , attributing them to weak institutions and elite resistance rather than the end of democratic expansion. Cited over 1,400 times, it provides data on regime trajectories up to the mid-1990s. "Facing Up to the Democratic Recession," published in the Journal of Democracy in January 2015, documents a decade of global democratic erosion, with reversals in 25 countries and stagnation elsewhere, driven by authoritarian resilience and weak international support; Diamond calls for consolidated democracies to recommit to promotion efforts, citing indices showing freedom's decline since 2006. The essay, garnering nearly 2,000 citations, uses and data to quantify the trend. More recently, "Power, Performance, and Legitimacy" (April 2024, Journal of Democracy) argues that reversing democracy's slowdown requires democracies to demonstrate superior governance efficacy, leveraging state capacity and ethical legitimacy to counter autocratic appeals; it draws on comparative cases to advocate strategic adaptation amid ongoing global volatility. Diamond's "Liberation Technology" essay (July 2010, Journal of Democracy) explores digital tools' dual potential to empower citizens against autocrats or enable repression, concluding that outcomes hinge on civil society's strategic use versus regime countermeasures, with examples from and .

Views on Democracy and Global Politics

Democratic Recession and Authoritarian Challenges

Diamond identified a global democratic recession beginning around 2006, characterized by stalled progress in democratization, reversals in fragile regimes, and erosion of democratic quality in established systems, contrasting with the post-Cold War "third wave" of transitions. He noted that while outright authoritarian reversals have not formed a "third reverse wave," the net trend shows fewer countries achieving stable , with many third-wave states (post-1974) remaining illiberal or unstable due to weak institutions and failures. Empirical indicators include Freedom House's documentation of 18 consecutive years of declining global freedom scores from 2006 to 2024, alongside Polity IV data reflecting stagnation in the number of . Contributing factors, per Diamond, include internal vulnerabilities such as , , and , which enable "competitive authoritarianism" in hybrid regimes like under , under , and under , where elections persist but institutions are systematically undermined. Externally, the resurgence of confident autocracies—exemplified by China's and Russia's —has provided alternative governance paradigms, eroding the perceived inevitability of . Authoritarian challenges have intensified through "sharp power" tactics, whereby regimes like and export influence via state-controlled media, technology, and economic leverage to subvert democratic norms from within, targeting universities, , and electoral processes in open societies. , as co-editor of the volume Authoritarianism Goes Global, highlighted how such regimes weaponize digital surveillance and disinformation to suppress dissent domestically while projecting autocratic resilience abroad, as seen in Belarus's 2020 election manipulation and Venezuela's disputed 2024 vote. Without international pushback, he argued, this "authoritarian slide" persists, as autocrats face minimal consequences for eroding . To counter these trends, Diamond advocated reforming and consolidating existing democracies through anti-corruption measures, institutional strengthening, and renewed commitment to liberal values, which he maintained remain aspirational globally despite practical setbacks. He proposed strategies like exposing via evidence-based opposition unity—as in Poland's 2023 victory and Guatemala's 2023 upset—and mobilizing nonviolent mass resistance, citing Bangladesh's 2024 ouster of a long-ruling autocrat as a model. Internationally, he urged coalitions to provide funding, training, and sanctions against autocratic predation, emphasizing that democratic renewal requires proactive defense rather than passive observation. In 2023 assessments, Diamond cautioned that while some regional gains offer hope, the recession's trajectory remains uncertain without sustained global action.

Critiques of U.S. Foreign Policy

Diamond has been a prominent critic of the ' execution of post-invasion policy in , where he served as a senior advisor to the from September to December 2004. In his 2004 article "What Went Wrong in ," he argued that the Bush administration underestimated the challenges of reconstruction, deploying insufficient troops to maintain security and disbanding the Iraqi army without adequate planning for reintegration, which fueled and . He further contended that extreme de-Baathification policies alienated much of the Sunni population and that the lack of a robust international coalition limited legitimacy and resources for stabilization. These missteps, Diamond asserted, squandered the initial military victory by failing to prioritize governance reforms and local buy-in, resulting in a protracted conflict that undermined democracy-building efforts. In his 2005 book Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to , Diamond expanded on these failures, drawing from his firsthand experience in . He highlighted the Pentagon's overreach in leading reconstruction without sufficient expertise in , the refusal to acknowledge rising insecurity early on, and inadequate measures against and influence in the interim government. Diamond also critiqued the unilateral invasion without broader UN authorization, which he later described as a strategic error that eroded global support and isolated the U.S. diplomatically. Despite supporting the goal of after Saddam Hussein's removal, he concluded that these operational shortcomings led to a failure in establishing stable institutions, with Iraq's legitimacy remaining fragile due to perceived American overreach. Extending his analysis beyond , Diamond has lambasted U.S. under the Bush administration for tarnishing the global image of . In a assessment, he stated that the "arrogance and " associated with Bush-era policies alienated potential partners and receptive populations worldwide, associating with rather than . He advocated for a multilateral framework, emphasizing international buy-in and localized strategies to avoid repeating 's pitfalls in future interventions. More recently, Diamond has critiqued isolationist tendencies in U.S. foreign policy, particularly under , as detrimental to American influence and global democratic stability. In a 2025 article, he described Trump's "America First" doctrine as rooted in "deep contempt for multilateral institutions and alliances," arguing that withdrawing from engagements like the and commitments weakens deterrence against authoritarian powers such as and . Diamond warned that such retrenchment creates power vacuums exploited by autocrats, contrasting it with the need for assertive U.S. leadership to counter democratic , as outlined in his 2022 piece "All Democracy Is Global." He maintained that not only diminishes U.S. but also fails to address transnational threats like authoritarian influence operations, urging sustained international engagement over withdrawal.

Perspectives on American Domestic Democracy

Diamond has warned that the United States faces an imminent risk of democratic decay into "competitive ," where elections occur but are undermined by manipulated institutions and unfair competition. He attributes this trajectory to rapid assaults on checks and balances, including the politicization of the Department of Justice, military leadership, and regulatory agencies like the SEC and FCC, as observed in early actions following the 2024 presidential election. Polarization plays a central role in Diamond's analysis of domestic vulnerabilities, enabling what he describes as an "imperial " through congressional acquiescence, such as Republicans ceding control over fund disbursement in March 2025. This division, compounded by fear among business leaders, media, and bureaucrats, has contributed to a lack of resistance against unconstitutional acts, including the firing of 17 inspectors general and pardons for over 1,500 participants. Diamond argues that such accelerates without institutional pushback, likening the U.S. situation to gradual erosions seen in and , where courts, media, and are subdued over time. In assessing deeper structural issues, Diamond contends that rot in American political institutions extends beyond individual leaders, rooted in systemic polarization and eroding norms that predate recent elections. He emphasizes that constitutional resilience depends on the willingness of , courts, civil servants, and civic groups to defend democratic principles against antidemocratic impulses. To counter polarization, Diamond has advocated electoral reforms like ranked-choice voting, which he views as a mechanism to reduce partisan extremism and foster broader coalitions in U.S. politics. Diamond calls for proactive defenses, including judicial challenges—such as the 44 lawsuits filed by March 11, 2025—internal resistance from civil servants refusing illegal orders, and mass citizen mobilization to uphold and institutional independence. He stresses that without such actions, the crisis of American democracy, already "squarely upon us" as of February 2025, risks permanent entrenchment of authoritarian practices.

Criticisms and Debates

Skepticism Toward

Diamond has acknowledged the limitations of external efforts, particularly when undertaken through military intervention or without sufficient attention to domestic preconditions such as effective and measures. In analyzing the post-2001 interventions in and , he identified as a primary factor undermining democratic experiments, noting that pervasive graft eroded public trust, weakened institutions, and facilitated authoritarian or collapse, as evidenced by the Taliban's 2021 resurgence in . Diamond argued that these cases demonstrated how fragile new democracies remain without robust to enforce and curb of resources. Critics of aggressive promotion strategies, including some directed at Diamond's earlier optimism during the "third wave" of in the 1990s and 2000s, have pointed to empirical failures as evidence of overreach. For instance, the Iraq War's destabilizing outcomes—marked by , the rise of ISIS by 2014, and incomplete —fueled broader skepticism about exporting institutions via force, with Diamond himself reflecting that such approaches ignored cultural and historical barriers to rapid transition. He contended that while succeeded in contexts with pre-existing and , as in post-communist , it faltered in highly fragmented or authoritarian-entrenched societies lacking internal momentum. Diamond has critiqued the George W. Bush administration's implementation for associating with and occupation, which he said "gave a bad name" by prioritizing over sustainable institution-building. This skepticism, amplified by the global democratic recession since the mid-2000s—characterized by 20 reversals from 2006 to 2010 alone—prompted Diamond to advocate a more selective, multilateral strategy focused on diplomatic support and civil society aid rather than transformative interventions. Despite these caveats, he maintained that abandoning promotion entirely would cede ground to authoritarian powers like and , whose models exploit perceived Western overoptimism without addressing democracy's long-term adaptive resilience.

Responses to Iraq Involvement and Optimism

Diamond served as a senior advisor on to the (CPA) in from January to April 2004, arriving with optimism that a functional could be gradually established in through institutional reforms and inclusive political processes. He advocated for measures such as revising de-Baathification policies to retain experienced civil servants, enhancing security to enable , and fostering cross-sectarian coalitions to build legitimacy for the interim government. This involvement stemmed from his broader expertise in democratic transitions, where he viewed post-invasion as a high-stakes opportunity to apply lessons from successful cases like post-World War II occupations, despite acknowledging the absence of many standard preconditions for rapid , such as a unified or robust . However, Diamond's optimism waned amid escalating violence and administrative failures, leading him to publicly critique the U.S. occupation in real time; by June 2004, he described Iraq's trajectory as hobbled by insufficient troop levels—estimated at needing 400,000 to 500,000 for effective stabilization rather than the deployed 140,000—and a failure to prioritize security over hasty political timelines. In his 2005 book Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, he argued that strategic blunders, including extreme de-Baathification under Paul Bremer, dissolution of the Iraqi army without reintegration plans, and under-resourcing reconstruction, squandered an initial window for viable governance, resulting in a security vacuum that empowered insurgents and sectarian militias. Diamond maintained that these were correctable errors rooted in ideological rigidity and poor planning, not inherent Iraqi unreadiness, though he conceded the occupation's coercive nature eroded trust, with public approval for U.S. forces dropping to 20% by mid-2004 per polls. External responses to Diamond's involvement and tempered optimism highlighted divisions. Conservative commentators accused him of hindsight bias and insufficient emphasis on Iraqi agency, such as entrenched corruption and sectarianism, dismissing his critiques as undermining U.S. resolve rather than constructive analysis; for instance, reviews of Squandered Victory contended it overlooked how Baathist holdovers and jihadist infiltration—responsible for over 80% of attacks by 2005—posed insurmountable cultural barriers beyond U.S. policy fixes. Liberal and realist critics, conversely, viewed his initial advisory role as complicit in neoconservative overreach, arguing that optimism from democracy experts like Diamond fueled unrealistic expectations of transplanting liberal institutions into a society lacking liberal traditions, with Iraq's post-2003 fragility—marked by 4,000+ civilian deaths in 2006 alone—exemplifying the hubris of universalist promotion models. Diamond rebutted such charges by stressing empirical variance in transitions, noting that while Iraq's case failed due to execution flaws, comparative successes like South Korea's post-1953 stabilization under U.S. oversight demonstrated feasibility with adequate commitment, though he later acknowledged in 2006 interviews that prolonged U.S. presence risked perpetuating dependency without local buy-in. These debates underscored broader skepticism toward Diamond's framework, with analysts like those at the citing his own precondition assessments to argue against rushed interventions, as Iraq's tribal divisions and oil-dependent economy—generating 90% of revenues yet fueling patronage—amplified fragility beyond external optimism could mitigate. By 2009, Diamond reflected in seminars that Iraq's partial democratic elements, such as competitive elections drawing 70% turnout in 2005, coexisted with authoritarian backsliding, attributing persistent challenges to unresolved security dilemmas rather than irredeemable optimism.

Recent Developments and Ongoing Work

Publications and Commentary Post-2020

In the early , Larry Diamond focused his scholarly output on the ongoing global democratic recession, the impact of populist movements, and threats to liberal institutions, particularly in the United States. His January 2022 article "Democracy's Arc: From Resurgent to Imperiled," published in the Journal of Democracy, traced the shift from post-Cold War democratic optimism to contemporary , attributing it to factors like authoritarian resurgence, , and internal democratic erosion; he emphasized that recovery would hinge on democratic actors addressing authoritarian emboldenment and domestic divisions. In this expanded edition of an earlier essay, Diamond highlighted empirical data from indices like , showing democracy's global share declining from 45% of countries in 2000 to under 40% by 2021, while warning against complacency in established democracies. Diamond's 2022 commentary on the , 2021, U.S. Capitol events, titled "January 6 and the Paradoxes of America's Agenda," argued that safeguarding liberal norms amid polarization might necessitate incorporating elements of populism to counter elite detachment, drawing on historical precedents of democratic renewal through mass mobilization. He critiqued the U.S. agenda for overlooking domestic vulnerabilities, using the event as a of how unchecked partisanship undermines institutional trust, supported by polling data indicating a post-event drop in American confidence in to below 60%. By 2023–2024, Diamond's work shifted toward performance-based legitimacy in democracies. In the April 2024 Journal of Democracy article "Power, Performance, and Legitimacy"—adapted from his December 2023 Seymour Martin Lipset Lecture—he contended that eroding public faith in democratic governance stems not just from procedural flaws but from failures in delivering economic and security outcomes, citing cross-national surveys where only 52% of citizens in established democracies viewed their systems as effective by 2023. He advocated for democracies to prioritize tangible results over ideological purity to regain momentum against authoritarian models like China's, which emphasize competence over contestation. Post-2024 commentary increasingly addressed U.S.-specific risks under potential authoritarian-leaning leadership. In a November 2024 Foreign Affairs piece, "Democracy Without America? What Trump Means for Global Democratic Momentum," Diamond analyzed how a second Trump administration could signal U.S. democratic retrenchment, potentially accelerating global autocratization as allies question American commitments; he referenced Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data showing U.S. scores falling to levels by 2023. Earlier that year, in a December 2024 Persuasion essay "Confronting Our Autocrat-In-Waiting: Part II," he outlined prescriptions against incipient , including and electoral safeguards, framing Trump-era challenges as a test of institutional resilience rather than inevitable collapse. Into 2025, Diamond's op-eds reflected acute concerns over executive overreach. A February 2025 Persuasion article, "The Crisis of Democracy Is Here," described multiple alleged unconstitutional acts as eroding guardrails, urging civic mobilization based on historical recoveries from similar crises. In a May 2025 Washington Post opinion, he assessed early Trump administration impacts, noting no irreversible institutional damage yet but warning of cumulative erosion in norms like and , informed by his monitoring of and agency purges. A June 2025 Persuasion piece, "Making America Weak Again," critiqued policy shifts weakening alliances and democratic promotion, linking them to broader geopolitical vulnerabilities evidenced by alliance polling dips post-inauguration. These works, while opinionated, consistently grounded arguments in quantitative democracy metrics from sources like V-Dem and , maintaining Diamond's emphasis on empirical trends over partisan rhetoric.

Current Positions and Influence

Larry Diamond holds the position of William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the , where he chairs the Project on in the Indo-Pacific Region. He also serves as the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and as a senior fellow at both the and FSI. Additionally, Diamond is a by courtesy in and at , where he teaches courses on democratic development, including an online course on the subject. He acts as the principal investigator for the Global Digital Policy Incubator, focusing on technology's implications for democratic governance. Diamond maintains significant influence in democratic studies through his editorial roles, including as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, which shapes scholarly discourse on regime transitions and authoritarian resilience. His recent publications and commentary, such as op-eds in analyzing U.S. implications under the second Trump administration (June 13, 2025) and assessments of global electoral trends (July 15, 2025), underscore his role as a key commentator on democratic backsliding. In podcasts and interviews, including a April 21, 2025 discussion on democratic trajectories post-2024 U.S. elections, Diamond draws on historical patterns to evaluate risks of authoritarian entrenchment, influencing policy and academic debates. Diamond's expertise extends to advisory contributions on international democracy support, evidenced by his participation in forums like the FSI's analyses of 2025 global elections, where he highlighted persistent challenges from populist movements and institutional erosion. His work at Hoover and FSI positions him to inform U.S. policy on regions like amid rising geopolitical tensions, emphasizing empirical metrics of democratic health over ideological narratives. Through these channels, Diamond sustains influence by integrating data-driven insights from indices like those tracking democratic recession with causal analyses of governance failures.

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